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Studies exploring the course of period fertility in Iran after the 1979 Islamic Revolution have not examined systematically the role played by changes in the timing of births. Using retrospective data from the 2000 Iran Demographic and Health Survey and frailty hazard models, this study finds that the rise in fertility in the early 1980s was due to faster transitions to the first birth among all social groups of women and to the fourth birth largely among illiterate and less educated women. In contrast, the rapid fertility decline after 1985 is attributed to slower transition to successive births, especially to the second, third, and fourth births. These findings point to the importance of education and contraceptive use (measured by length of previous birth interval) as key determinants of birth timing in Iran. Interaction between age at marriage and education positively influenced the timing of births, with stronger effects among highly educated women, suggesting that the onset of rapid fertility decline was likely driven by these highly educated women. Another interaction between the gender of prior children and education shows that birth timing, even among highly educated women, appears to have been influenced by son preference in Iran.

As rates of population and labour force growth slow in Canada, the country faces important challenges in promoting economic growth and sustaining prosperity. Among the most important public issues are increasing labour force participation rates among groups with low or declining rates of work and reforming education to better prepare graduates for the jobs of the new economy. At the same time, Canada needs to respond to the shifting geography of work. The concentration of employment in a limited number of major urban centres is driving young people to seek work in high-cost cities, while many smaller cities and regions face the prospect of economic and demographic decline.Alors que les taux de population et la croissance de la population active ralentissent au Canada, le pays devra relever d’importants défis pour promouvoir la croissance économique et maintenir la prospérité. Les plus importantes questions d’ordre public porteront, entre autres, sur le taux de participation, au sein de la population active, de groupes présentant des taux d’emploi faibles ou en déclin et la réforme de l’éducation afin de mieux préparer les diplômés aux emplois de la nouvelle économie. Le Canada doit, en même temps, aborder la géographie changeante du travail. La concentration des emplois dans quelques grands centres urbains pousse les jeunes à chercher du travail dans les villes où le coût est élevé, alors que les villes plus petites et les régions sont confrontées au déclin économique et démographique.Mots-clés : population et environnement; climat; utilisation d’énergie; pointe de population

Pour les jeunes gens qui grandissaient dans les villages de l’Europe des xviiie et xixe siecles, la possibilite d’acceder au mariage n’etait nullement une evidence. Une proportion significative ne se mariait jamais et, au cours du xixe siecle, ils furent de plus en plus nombreux a quitter leur terroir pour tenter de se construire une vie ailleurs. Cet article examine les determinants de l’acces au mariage dans quatre villages d’Alsace entre 1750 et 1885, en pretant une attention particuliere au rang de naissance et au nombre de freres et sœurs survivants. Les resultats indiquent que les enfants premiers-nes et ceux avec peu de germains du meme sexe survivants avaient les plus fortes chances de se marier dans leur village de residence, et qu’ils tendaient a le faire a un âge plus jeune.

Iran has experienced a dramatic decline in fertility in recent decades, but limited access to legal abortion continues to lead many women whose pregnancies are unwanted or mistimed to undergo clandestine, unsafe abortions. No official data on the abortion rate in Iran have been collected, however. This study uses the 2000 Iran Demographic and Health Survey to estimate the abortion rate for the country as a whole and for specific regions, and to explore the role of contraceptive use and religiosity in explaining regional variations in abortion rates. We estimate the total abortion rate for the country to be 0.26 abortions per married woman, and the annual general abortion rate to be 7.5 abortions per 1,000 married women aged 15-49. We find that the negative effect of modern contraceptive use on the abortion rate is 51 percent greater than the negative effect of religiosity, and we highlight the implications of these findings for policies on reproductive health and family

SummaryThe remarkable decline in fertility in Iran, which saw the total fertility rate fall from 7 children per woman in 1986 to 2 in 2000, has received only limited analysis in the demographic literature. Using the 2000 Iran Demographic and Health Survey and Bongaarts’ age-specific fertility model, this paper examines the role of the major proximate determinants of fertility in bringing about the rapid decrease in fertility in Iran. The analysis indicates that contraception had the largest effect on fertility, accounting for 61% of the reduction in fertility from its theoretical maximum. The fertility-inhibiting effect of marriage patterns accounted for an additional 31% reduction, and was most important among the young. Further analysis of contraceptive behaviour suggests that the current period fertility rate of 2·0 children per woman is an outcome of a synchronization of delaying and spacing of births among younger women with stopping of childbearing among women in the middle and late reproductive ages. The policy implications of the results are discussed.

Tout comme les lieux de travail, les organisations connaissent actuellement des changements drastiques. Au cours des dernières années, les petites et grandes entreprises ont procédé à des restructurations: redéfinition des postes de travail, modifications à l'interne et changement des attentes au plan de l'emploi. Cet article a pour objectif de vérifier dans quelle mesure des changements récents de la philosophie de gestion au plan de l'organisation du travail ont incité la direction de ces entreprises à modifier leurs attentes à l'endroit des travailleurs: est-ce que le nouveau travail fait appel à de nouveaux travailleurs?Pour répondre à cette question, nous avons puisé dans des rapports d'entrevues avec des directeurs de ressources humaines de trois types d'industries de l'Ouest de l'Ontario (les équipements de transport, les produits chimiques et les services de santé). Nous avons ainsi cherché à évaluer l'ampleur des restructurations qui ont cours dans ces secteurs et la perception que les dirigeants se font de la nature des habiletés et des caractéristiques des travailleurs maintenant exigées par ces restructurations. Les dirigeants dans ces trois secteurs décrivent la nature des changements en cours en termes d'aplatissement des structures organisationnelles, de redéfinition des postes et de l'insertion de ces derniers dans une nouvelle structure. De plus, ces mêmes dirigeants nous révèlent que ces changements ont modifier leur vision de ce qu'est un bon travailleur. Ils ont donc changé la nature des caractéristiques recherchées chez un travailleur. En premier lieu, ces dirigeants souhaitent un niveau de scolarité plus élevé, une formation préalable plus accentuée et de l'expérience différente de celle exigée dans le passé. Ils croient que le rythme récent des changements technologiques, associé à une tendance vers un agrandissement des tâches, fait appel à une main-d’œuvre plus scolarisée et mieux formée. De plus, dans plusieurs cas, ils veulent de moins en moins assumer les coûts inhérents à un relèvement des niveaux de scolarité et de formation.En deuxième lieu, ces directeurs de ressources humaines souhaitent une plus grande flexibilité chez les travailleurs, flexibilité qui reçoit diverses significations: des travailleurs plus polyvalents, mieux adaptés à des emplois de plus d'envergure qu'on retrouve maintenant dans les entreprises allégées. Cette flexibilité peut aussi revêtir des caractéristiques personnelles de l'ordre d'une réponse aux besoins de l'entreprise et d'une volonté de travailler au moment et à l'endroit où cette dernière l'exige. Les entreprises valorisent aussi une flexibilité qui implique des changements de lieux de travail d'un établissement à l'autre à l'intérieur d'une province, d'un pays et dans le monde entier. Ces entreprises recherchent des personnes qui sont prêtes à travailler selon différents horaires et aussi à accepter de faire du surtemps.En troisième lieu, ces directions de ressources humaines souhaitent l'arrivée de travailleurs qui peuvent se servir des nouvelles technologies plus que dans le passé. Elles manifestent également un plus grand besoin de salariés qui peuvent faire l'entretien et la programmation de ces technologies et de salariés sans spécialité qui peuvent utiliser des ordinateurs ou d'autres équipements informatiques dans l'exécution de leur travail.Quatrièmement, ces directions mettent l'accent sur certaines habiletés douces (d'ordre relationnel), telles que la capacité de communiquer et de travailler en équipe. Les entreprises font appel au travail d'équipe beaucoup plus que dans le passé, de sorte que la communication interpersonnelle devient de plus en plus importante. Les directions recherchent aussi des travailleurs capables d'accomplir des tâches multiples et d'assumer un élargissement de leurs responsabilités. La capacité d'apprendre est aussi une préoccupation de ces directions et elle est associée à une croyance que l'entraînement et la formation bonifiés sont nécessaires pour se tenir à jour face au changement continuel de la technologie et des lieux de travail. Des changements au niveau des attitudes des directions ont des effets sur l'emploi et les travailleurs. Au fur et à mesure que le niveau de formation exigé par les entreprises s'accroît, les travailleurs possédant peu de scolarité sont poussés hors du marché du travail. Par conséquent, les travailleurs susceptibles d'obtenir et de conserver un emploi sont ceux qui sont mieux formés, qui possèdent une bonne connaissance de la technologie nouvelle et les habiletés relationnelles alors exigées. De plus, la demande de main-d’œuvre plus flexible semble en opposition avec l'accroissement du nombre de familles à double revenu et de familles monoparentales. L'obligation pour ces familles de satisfaire aux exigences de deux carrières et aux responsabilités inhérentes à l'éducation des enfants vient de façon évidente limiter la flexibilité des travailleurs.Sans égard à la nature exacte des changements en cours dans les organisations, la reconnaissance chez les dirigeants d'un besoin de repenser le travail vient changer de façon significative la perception qu'ils se font des qualifications exigées chez les salariés. Ces changements auront donc des conséquences largement diffusées tant chez les travailleurs que dans les organisations au cours des années qui viennent., Recent studies of work have argued that organizational restructuring and the introduction of technology are altering the nature and experience of work. In this paper, we examine whether recent change has affected managerial perceptions of the characteristics and abilities required of workers. Drawing on interviews with human resource managers in three industries (chemicals production, transportation equipment manufacturing, health services) in Southwestern Ontario, we conclude that management across these industries is indeed seeking a "new" kind of worker, and is placing new demands on their workers. Implications of these changes for employment and for workers are discussed., Los estudios recientes sobre el trabajo argumentan que la restructuracion organizacional y la introducciòn de tecnologfa estàn alterando la naturaleza y la experiencia concreta de trabajo. En estas paginas, nosotros examinamos si los recientes cambios han afectado las percepciones de los directivos respecto a las caracteristicas y habilidades exigidas a los trabajadores. A partir de entrevistas con responsables de recursos humanos en très industrias (producciòn quìmica, equipo de transporte, servicios de salud) ubicadas al sur de Ontario, nosotros llegamos a la conclusion que los directivos de estas industrias buscan verdaderamente un nuevo tipo de trabajador y que estàn planteando nuevas exigencias a sus trabajadores. Se discute también las implicaciones de estos cambios para los trabajadores y respecto al empleo.

Religious affiliation as a determinant of demographic behavior was once at the forefront of demographic research especially in studies of differential fertility. Particular attention was paid to the high fertility of Catholic populations in countries such as the United States. But with the changes that swept through Catholic communities in many industrialized societies in the wake of the Second Vatican Council Catholic fertility patterns came to resemble more closely those of other major religious denominations. Westoff and Jones succinctly captured this change in the title of their article on the end of Catholic fertility. Not surprisingly with the narrowing of fertility differences among religious groups came a withering of interest among demographers in understanding the sources of religious influence on demographic behavior. Several recent developments in the field would seem to justify renewed interest in this old question. The empirical findings of the Princeton studies of the decline of fertility in Europe helped touch off a wave of interest in ascertaining how cultural beliefs and practices including religious ones influenced the fertility transitions in Europe and elsewhere. More recently this concern has extended to attempts to account for variation in the pace of the second demographic transition. Another source of interest in religion centers on fertility patterns in the Muslim world. Countries with large Muslim populations have been generally slower to experience fertility decline and they figure prominently among the shrinking number of societies that continue to experience high rates of fertility. Yet considerable disagreement surrounds the role Islam plays in the fertility patterns of these societies reflecting in part the difficulty demographers have had in conceptualizing the influence of religion on demographic behavior. It thus seems opportune to revisit the question of religion and fertility in the light of a generation of new theoretical and empirical work. (excerpt)

Data from a family reconstitution study of five villages in Alsace, France, point to the importance of family composition as a determinant of remarriage. For widows and widowers, the likelihood of remarriage increased with the number of children fourteen years of age or younger in their household, though the result was statistically significant only for men. Moreover, having an older daughter (fifteen to twenty-one years of age) was associated with a much lower likelihood of remarriage for widowers, and, surprisingly, for widows as well.

Population and Disease: Transforming English Society, 1550-1850

Cette communication analyse la situation economique des familles monoparentales dont le chef est une femme a partir de donnees des recensements canadiens de 1971, 1981 et 1986 disponibles sur microfiches a acces public. L'analyse revele qu'en depit d'une augmentation sensible du revenu reel des familles a mere sans coqjoint, l'ecart entre le revenu de celles-ci et le revenu des familles biparentales s'est creuse de maniere importante au cow de la periode etudiee de 15 ans. Bien que l'augmentation des salaires aient ete lente autant pour hommes mariee que pour les meres sans conjoint, une forte hausse du taux de participation des femmes mariees a la population active a permis aux familles biparentales d'augmenter de facon appreciable leur revenu familial total. Du cote des familles a mere sans conjoint, par contre, divers changements demographiques ont limite l'augmentation des gains totaux et ralentit l'accroissement du revenu familial. This paper examines the economic fortunes of lone-mother families using the public use microfiles of the 1971 and 1986 Canadian censuses. The analysis shows that despite a 16 per cent increase in the real income of lone-mother families, the income gap between lone-mother and two-parent families widened appreciably over the 15-year period. Although real wages for both husbands and lone mothers rose slowly, a sharp increase in the labour force participation rate of married women allowed two-parent families to increase their total family income significantly. By contrast, demographic changes among lone-mother families served to limit the increase in total family earnings and slowed the rise of family income.

Contributors * Introduction ZENAIDA R. RAVANERA and KEVIN MCQUILLAN Part One: Changes in Families: Childbearing, Work Patterns, and Life Course Transitions * Transformed Families and the Basis for Childbearing RODERIC BEAUJOT and ALI MUHAMMAD * A Balancing Act: Parents' Work Arrangements and Family Time EVELYNE LAPIERRE-ADAMCYK, NICOLE MARCIL-GRATTON, and CELINE LE BOURDAIS * Parental Time, Work Schedules, and Changing Gender Roles BENOIT RAPOPORT and CELINE LE BOURDAIS * Delayed Life Transitions: Trends and Implications RODERIC BEAUJOT Part Two: Family Transformation and Investment in Children * The Evolving Family Living Arrangements of Canada's Children: Consequences for Child Poverty and Child Outcomes DON KERR * The Impact of Family Context on Adolescent Emotional Health during the Transition to High School KAREN MAC CON * Intergenerational Transfer: The Impact of Parental Separation on Young Adults' Conjugal Behaviour CLAUDINE PROVENCHER, CELINE LE BOURDAIS, and NICOLE MARCIL-GRATTON * Single Parenthood and Labour Force Participation: The Effect of Social Policies NANCY MEILLEUR and EVELYNE LAPIERRE-ADAMCYK Part Three: Family Solidarity and Social Integration * Family Solidarity in Canada: An Exploration with the General Social Survey on Family and Community Support FERNANDO RAJULTON and ZENAIDA R. RAVANERA * Social Integration over the Life Course: Influences of Individual, Family, and Community Characteristics ZENAIDA R. RAVANERA and FERNANDO RAJULTON * Conclusion: Family Change and the Challenge for Social Policy KEVIN MCQUILLAN

This study examines the effects of economic and cultural factors on age at first marriage using marriage records [from the period 1811-1870] for a sample of twenty-five communities located in the French region of Alsace. The findings indicate that in both agricultural and industrial settings young people in predominantly Protestant communities married earlier than did those in predominantly Catholic villages. Significant differences also existed by occupation of the groom though the effect of occupation varied by gender and religious affiliation. (EXCERPT)

The transfer of population from the rural areas to the cities was one of the central features of the period known as the Industrial Revolution. Previous work on the topic has emphasized the changes in migration patterns which occurred during this period. This paper examines the factors underlying regional variations in rates of migration to the largest cities in England and France and concludes that the extent of change in migration patterns has been overestimated. The majority of migrants to London and Paris during the last half of the nineteenth century continued to come from the immediate hinterlands of the two cities or from traditional sources. The impact of distance overwhelmed the effects of most other social and economic factors commonly cited as responsible for regional variations in migration patterns.

The purpose of this paper is to take a new look at mortality change in Ontario during the nineteenth century by using Canadian census data to construct estimates of expectation of life at birth in the period from 1861 to 1921. Relying on techniques developed for the study of Third World populations we will construct life tables for the Ontario population for each decade from 1861-1921. In the final section of the paper we will compare the course of change in mortality in Ontario with the pattern in Quebec.... (EXCERPT)

The wide-ranging effects of the post-war baby boom on Canadian society have served to focus attention on the significance of demographic change. However most of this attention has centred on relatively short-term fluctuations in demographic patterns while ignoring equally important long-term trends. In this paper we describe the transformation which has occurred in Canadian population patterns since the mid-nineteenth century and briefly consider some of the most important social and economic consequences of these trends. Some of the implications of a continuation of present trends for the future of Canadian society are also discussed. (SUMMARY IN FRE) (EXCERPT)

This research focuses on the relationship between modes of production and demographic patterns. Specifically, it attempts to discover whether the large and enduring regional variations in fertility and nuptiality which characterized 19th-century France can be accounted for by variations in modes of production. The findings indicate that differences in modes of production were associated with variations in population patterns, though not always in the ways originally predicted. The data show that areas of capitalist production were characterized by markedly higher levels of nonmarital fertility and, under certain conditions, higher total fertility and earlier marriage as well. The implications of these findings for some major theories of demographic change are discussed. Few areas of research have yielded as many new and exciting discoveries in recent years as has historical demography. The proliferation of smalland large-scale studies in a variety of countries and time periods has forced demographers to rethink some long-held ideas and to develop new theories more in accord with the historical record. In doing so, they have turned to some traditional sociological sources generally neglected in the field of population studies. The purpose of this paper is to examine some of these new developments and to assess their ability to explain a problem which continues to perplex historical demographers, the persistence of large regional variations in population patterns in 19th-century France.

Internal migration plays an important role in the redistribution of the population which normally accompanies industrialization. This was clearly the case in nineteenth-century England, where a major redistribution of the population occurred during the Industrial Revolution. Despite its potential theoretical importance, however, relatively little attention has been paid to the dynamics of internal migration in this classic example of industrialization.