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OBJECTIVE The glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist dulaglutide reduced MACE in the Researching Cardiovascular Events with a Weekly Incretin in Diabetes (REWIND) trial. This article expores the relationship of selected biomarkers to both dulaglutide and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS In this post hoc analysis, stored fasting baseline and 2-year plasma samples from 824 REWIND participants with MACE during follow-up and 845 matched non-MACE participants were analyzed for 2-year changes in 19 protein biomarkers. Two-year changes in 135 metabolites were also analyzed in 600 participants with MACE during follow-up and in 601 matched non-MACE participants. Linear and logistic regression models were used to identify proteins that were associated with both dulaglutide treatment and MACE. Similar models were used to identify metabolites that were associated with both dulaglutide treatment and MACE. RESULTS Compared with placebo, dulaglutide was associated with a greater reduction or lesser 2-year rise from baseline in N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, and a greater 2-year rise in C-peptide. Compared with placebo, dulaglutide was also associated with a greater fall from baseline in 2-hydroxybutyric acid and a greater rise in threonine (P < 0.001). Increases from baseline in two of the proteins (but neither metabolite) were associated with MACE, including NT-proBNP (OR 1.267; 95% CI 1.119, 1.435; P < 0.001) and GDF-15 (OR 1.937; 95% CI 1.424, 2.634; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Dulaglutide was associated with a reduced 2-year rise from baseline of NT-proBNP and GDF-15. Higher rises of these biomarkers were also associated with MACE.

Circulating proteins associated with transforming growth factor-β (TGF-β) signaling are implicated in the development of diabetic kidney disease (DKD). No study has comprehensively examined which of these proteins are involved in the pathogenesis of DKD and its progression to end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in humans. Using the SOMAscan proteomic platform, we measured concentrations of 25 TGF-β-signaling family proteins, in 4 different cohorts comprised of 754 Caucasian and Pima Indian subjects with type 1 and type 2 diabetes. Of these 25 circulating proteins, we identified neuroblastoma suppressor of tumorigenicity 1 (NBL1, aliases DAN & DAND1), a small, secreted protein known to inhibit members of the bone morphogenic protein family, to be most strongly and independently associated with progression to ESKD during 10-year follow-up in all cohorts. The extent of damage to podocytes and other glomerular structures measured morphometrically in 105 research kidney biopsies correlated strongly with circulating NBL1 concentrations. Also, in vitro exposure to NBL1 induced apoptosis in podocytes. In conclusion, concentration of NBL1 in circulation may identify subjects with diabetes at increased risk of progression to ESKD and may serve as a target for pharmacological intervention of the TGF-β signaling pathway to slow the development and progression of DKD.

Introduction: In the AWARD-7 study in patients with type 2 diabetes and moderate-to-severe chronic kidney disease, once-weekly dulaglutide slowed the decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and decreased the urine albumin/creatinine ratio compared to insulin glargine at the end of 52 weeks of treatment. In this exploratory post hoc analysis, changes in two fibrosis biomarkers, serum PRO-C6 (type VI collagen formation) and urine C3M (type III collagen degradation) were evaluated. Methods: In the groups treated with dulaglutide 1.5 mg or insulin glargine (N=330), serum PRO-C6 and urine C3M were measured using competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays. Biomarker changes were assessed by a mixed-effects model for repeated measures. Pearson correlation analyses were conducted to determine associations between changes in kidney fibrosis biomarkers and eGFR measures at 52 weeks. Results: At weeks 26 and 52 of treatment in the overall population, serum PRO-C6 levels were significantly lower in the dulaglutide group versus insulin glargine group with percent change from baseline of (least squares mean ± standard error) -4.6% ± 1.9 and -0.2% ± 2.2 versus 5.7% ± 2.0 and 8.0% ± 2.3 (p

Background: In the SURPASS-4 trial, the dual GIP and GLP-1 receptor agonist tirzepatide reduced HbA1c concentrations, bodyweight, and blood pressure more than titrated daily insulin glargine in people with type 2 diabetes inadequately controlled on oral diabetes treatments and with high cardiovascular risk. We aimed to compare the effects of tirzepatide and insulin glargine on kidney parameters and outcomes in people with type 2 diabetes.Methods: We did a post-hoc analysis of data from SURPASS-4, a randomised, open-label, parallel-group, phase 3 study at 187 sites (including private practice, research institutes, and hospitals) in 14 countries. Eligible participants were adults (age ≥18 years), with type 2 diabetes treated with any combination of metformin, sulfonylurea, or SGLT2 inhibitor, and with baseline HbA1c of 7·5–10·5% (58–91 mmol/mol), BMI of 25 kg/m2 or greater, and established cardiovascular disease or a high risk of cardiovascular events. Randomisation via an interactive web-response system was 1:1:1:3 to a once-weekly subcutaneous injection of tirzepatide (5 mg, 10 mg, or 15 mg) or a once-daily subcutaneous injection of titrated insulin glargine (100 U/mL). The study included up to 104 weeks of treatment, with a median treatment duration of 85 weeks. We compared the rates of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline and the urine albumin–creatinine ratio (UACR) between the combined tirzepatide groups and the insulin glargine group in the modified intention-to-treat population. The kidney composite outcome was time to first occurrence of eGFR decline of at least 40% from baseline, end-stage kidney disease, death owing to kidney failure, or new-onset macroalbuminuria. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03730662.Findings: Between Nov 20, 2018, and Dec 30, 2019, we screened 3045 people, of whom 1043 (34%) were ineligible, and 2002 (66%) were randomly assigned to a study drug (997 to tirzepatide and 1005 to insulin glargine). 1995 (>99%) of 2002 received at least one dose of tirzepatide (n=995) or insulin glargine (n=1000). At baseline, participants had a mean eGFR of 81·3 (SD 21·11) mL/min per 1·73 m2 and a median UACR of 15·0 mg/g (IQR 5·0–55·8). The mean rate of eGFR decline was –1·4 (SE 0·2) mL/min per 1·73 m2 per year in the combined tirzepatide groups and –3·6 (0·2) mL/min per 1·73 m2 per year in the insulin group (between-group difference 2·2 [95% CI 1·6 to 2·8]). Compared with insulin glargine, the reduction in the annual rate of eGFR decline induced by tirzepatide was more pronounced in participants with eGFR less than 60 mL/min per 1·73 m2 than in those with eGFR 60 mL/min per 1·73 m2 or higher (between-group difference 3·7 [95% CI 2·4 to 5·1]). UACR increased from baseline to follow-up with insulin glargine (36·9% [95% CI 26·0 to 48·7]) but not with tirzepatide (–6·8% [–14·1 to 1·1]; between-group difference –31·9% [–37·7 to –25·7]). Participants who received tirzepatide showed a significantly lower occurrence of the composite kidney endpoint compared with those who received insulin glargine (hazard ratio 0·58 [95% CI 0·43 to 0·80]).Interpretation: Our analysis suggests that in people with type 2 diabetes and high cardiovascular risk, tirzepatide slowed the rate of eGFR decline and reduced UACR in clinically meaningful ways compared with insulin glargine.Funding: Eli Lilly and Company

Context Tirzepatide substantially reduced hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and body weight in subjects with type 2 diabetes (T2D) compared with the glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonist dulaglutide. Improved glycemic control was associated with lower circulating triglycerides and lipoprotein markers and improved markers of beta-cell function and insulin resistance (IR), effects only partially attributable to weight loss. Objective Assess plasma metabolome changes mediated by tirzepatide. Design Phase 2b trial participants were randomly assigned to receive weekly subcutaneous tirzepatide, dulaglutide, or placebo for 26 weeks. Post hoc exploratory metabolomics and lipidomics analyses were performed. Setting Post hoc analysis. Participants 259 subjects with T2D. Intervention(s) Tirzepatide (1, 5, 10, 15 mg), dulaglutide (1.5 mg), or placebo. Main Outcome Measure(s) Changes in metabolite levels in response to tirzepatide were assessed against baseline levels, dulaglutide, and placebo using multiplicity correction. Results At 26 weeks, a higher dose tirzepatide modulated a cluster of metabolites and lipids associated with IR, obesity, and future T2D risk. Branched-chain amino acids, direct catabolic products glutamate, 3-hydroxyisobutyrate, branched-chain ketoacids, and indirect byproducts such as 2-hydroxybutyrate decreased compared to baseline and placebo. Changes were significantly larger with tirzepatide compared with dulaglutide and directly proportional to reductions of HbA1c, homeostatic model assessment 2-IR indices, and proinsulin levels. Proportional to metabolite changes, triglycerides and diglycerides were lowered significantly compared to baseline, dulaglutide, and placebo, with a bias toward shorter and highly saturated species. Conclusions Tirzepatide reduces body weight and improves glycemic control and uniquely modulates metabolites associated with T2D risk and metabolic dysregulation in a direction consistent with improved metabolic health.

BACKGROUND: Mechanisms underlying the pro gression of diabetic kidney disease to ESKD are not fully understood. METHODS: We performed global microRNA (miRNA) analysis on plasma from two cohorts consisting of 375 individuals with type 1 and type 2 diabetes with late diabetic kidney disease, and targeted proteomics analysis on plasma from four cohorts consisting of 746 individuals with late and early diabetic kidney disease. We examined structural lesions in kidney biopsy specimens from the 105 individuals with early diabetic kidney disease. Human umbilical vein endothelial cells were used to assess the effects of miRNA mimics or inhibitors on regulation of candidate proteins. RESULTS: In the late diabetic kidney disease cohorts, we identified 17 circulating miRNAs, represented by four exemplars (miR-1287-5p, miR-197-5p, miR-339-5p, and miR-328-3p), that were strongly associated with 10-year risk of ESKD. These miRNAs targeted proteins in the axon guidance pathway. Circulating levels of six of these proteins—most notably, EFNA4 and EPHA2—were strongly associated with 10-year risk of ESKD in all cohorts. Furthermore, circulating levels of these proteins correlated with severity of structural lesions in kidney biopsy specimens. In contrast, expression levels of genes encoding these proteins had no apparent effects on the lesions. In in vitro experiments, mimics of miR-1287-5p and miR-197-5p and inhibitors of miR-339-5p and miR-328-3p upregulated concentrations of EPHA2 in either cell lysate, supernatant, or both. CONCLUSIONS: This study reveals novel mechanisms involved in progression to ESKD and points to the importance of systemic factors in the development of diabetic kidney disease. Some circulating miRNAs and axon guidance pathway proteins represent potential targets for new therapies to prevent and treat this condition.

Background: A number of protein biomarkers have been proposed for the assessment of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), but few have been externally validated and directly compared. The aim of this study was to compare the diagnostic accuracies of 13 protein biomarkers and develop a biomarker-based machine learning algorithm to predict at-risk non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) in patients with NAFLD. Methods: 281 NAFLD patients had blood biomarker tested within one week before liver biopsy. We used three machine learning methods to select biomarkers in training (70%) and testing (30%) datasets, and then input selected features into a logistic regression model to predict at-risk NASH (NAFLD activity score ≥4 with at least 1 point in each component and fibrosis stage ≥2). Results: Among 13 protein biomarkers tested, growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15) and Pro-C3 had the highest accuracy for at-risk NASH and advanced fibrosis (F3-4), respectively. All three machine learning models selected GDF-15, Pro-C3, and tissue inhibitor matrix metalloproteinase 1 as the best predictors of at-risk NASH, and the logistic regression FibNASH-3 model had an area under receiver-operating characteristics curve of 0.784. Using LSM ≥8kPa as the first step, the sequential model had a 79.2% positive predictive value for at-risk NASH. During a mean follow-up of 9.7 years, 3% and 16.7% of patients with low and high sequential model score developed hepatocellular carcinoma and cirrhotic complications, respectively (PConclusions: The study provides a head-to-head comparison of 13 protein biomarkers. FibNASH-3 has the ability to accurately identify at-risk NASH in NAFLD patients and predict the development of liver-related events.

Dulaglutide (DU) reduced the risk of CV outcomes compared with placebo (PL) in the REWIND trial (NCT01394952) , with a MACE-3 (major adverse CV events) hazard ratio of 0.88 over 5.4 years. Participants were ≥50 years of age with T2D, A1C ≤9.5%, BMI ≥23 kg/m2, and CV risk and received either DU (1.5 mg weekly) or PL. This post-hoc analysis explored the hypothesized relationship between metabolite biomarkers and MACE-3 in a nested case-control substudy comprising 600 MACE cases and 6non-MACE REWIND participants. A total of 135 plasma metabolites were measured by targeted metabolomics using mass spectrometry. Biomarkers significantly associated with DU were first identified in analyses that adjusted for 135 multiple comparisons (discovery approach) . Predefined clusters of the remainder based on non-REWIND data were then assessed using principal component analyses (hypothesis testing) . DU was associated with 2-year changes in 2-hydroxybutyric acid, threonine, acylcarnitines and homocitrulline; of these, only the acylcarnitines were linked with MACE (Table) . In the literature, higher levels of acylcarnitines are associated with CV events. These analyses suggest that DU-associated reductions in acylcarnitines are associated with its MACE benefit. Disclosure V.Pirro: Employee; Eli Lilly and Company, Stock/Shareholder; Eli Lilly and Company. H.C.Gerstein: Advisory Panel; Abbott, Eli Lilly and Company, Hanmi Pharm. Co., Ltd., Novo Nordisk, Pfizer Inc., Sanofi, Viatris Inc., Consultant; Kowa Company, Ltd., Other Relationship; DKSH, Eli Lilly and Company, Sanofi, Zuellig Pharma Holdings Pte. Ltd., Research Support; AstraZeneca, Eli Lilly and Company, Merck & Co., Inc., Novo Nordisk, Sanofi. G.Pare: Advisory Panel; Amgen Inc., Bayer AG, Sanofi, Research Support; Bayer AG. S.Lee: None. H.M.Colhoun: Advisory Panel; Bayer AG, Eli Lilly and Company, Novo Nordisk, Consultant; AstraZeneca, Research Support; AstraZeneca, Stock/Shareholder; Bayer AG, Roche Pharmaceuticals. Y.Lin: Employee; Eli Lilly and Company, Stock/Shareholder; Eli Lilly and Company. J.M.Wilson: Employee; Eli Lilly and Company. H.Qian: Employee; Eli Lilly and Company, Stock/Shareholder; Apple, Eli Lilly and Company. A.Hoover: Employee; Eli Lilly and Company. K.L.Duffin: Employee; Eli Lilly and Company, Stock/Shareholder; Eli Lilly and Company, Pfizer Inc. Funding Eli Lilly and Company

In the REWIND trial, dulaglutide (DU) reduced the risk of CV outcomes compared with placebo (PL) (Major Adverse Cardiovascular Event [MACE]-3 hazard ratio 0.88) . This post hoc analysis studied circulating protein biomarkers associated with CV events to better understand how DU reduces CV risk. Patients ≥50 years of age with T2D, A1C ≤9.5%, BMI ≥23 kg/m2, and CV risk were treated DU (1.5 mg weekly) or PL. This case/control study matched 9 cases with MACE with 9 non-MACE controls. A total of protein biomarkers were measured by immunoassay in plasma and serum. Biomarkers associated with DU were first identified by fitting the natural log (ln) of biomarker changes from baseline to 2 years of treatment to an ANCOVA model; the p value cutoff was 0.0026 after Bonferroni correction. Then, the identified biomarkers were fit to a logistic regression model for MACE case/control to test possible impact on CV outcome. Four biomarkers were associated with DU: C-reactive protein (hsCRP) , N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) , and Growth/Differentiation Factor-15 (GDF-15) had attenuated increases over 2 years for DU vs. PL, and C-peptide had a greater increase over 2 years for DU vs. PL. Logistic regression analyses showed that patients with smaller increases in hsCRP, NT-proBNP, and GDF-15 were less likely to have MACE. C-peptide levels did not significantly impact MACE occurrence. Disclosure J.M.Wilson: Employee; Eli Lilly and Company. K.L.Duffin: Employee; Eli Lilly and Company, Stock/Shareholder; Eli Lilly and Company, Pfizer Inc. H.C.Gerstein: Advisory Panel; Abbott, Eli Lilly and Company, Hanmi Pharm. Co., Ltd., Novo Nordisk, Pfizer Inc., Sanofi, Viatris Inc., Consultant; Kowa Company, Ltd., Other Relationship; DKSH, Eli Lilly and Company, Sanofi, Zuellig Pharma Holdings Pte. Ltd., Research Support; AstraZeneca, Eli Lilly and Company, Merck & Co., Inc., Novo Nordisk, Sanofi. G.Pare: Advisory Panel; Amgen Inc., Bayer AG, Sanofi, Research Support; Bayer AG. S.Lee: None. H.M.Colhoun: Advisory Panel; Bayer AG, Eli Lilly and Company, Novo Nordisk, Consultant; AstraZeneca, Research Support; AstraZeneca, Stock/Shareholder; Bayer AG, Roche Pharmaceuticals. H.Qian: Employee; Eli Lilly and Company, Stock/Shareholder; Apple, Eli Lilly and Company. V.Pirro: Employee; Eli Lilly and Company, Stock/Shareholder; Eli Lilly and Company. A.Hoover: Employee; Eli Lilly and Company. M.Lakshmanan: Employee; Eli Lilly and Company, Stock/Shareholder; Eli Lilly and Company. G.Ruotolo: None. Funding Eli Lilly and Company

Tirzepatide (TZP, 5, 10, 15 mg/week) , a dual GIP/GLP-1 receptor agonist, reduced HbA1c levels more than titrated daily insulin glargine (iGlar) in people inadequately controlled on oral diabetes treatments with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and high cardiovascular risk (median study duration 85 weeks) . Here, we compared progression to pre-specified kidney endpoints between TZP and iGlar. Composite kidney outcomes in SURPASS-4 were analysed: endpoint 1 (eGFR [CKD-EPI] decline ≥40% from baseline, renal death, progression to ESRD, new onset macroalbuminuria) and endpoint 2 (endpoint 1 without new onset macroalbuminuria) . Data were examined within the entire study population, and in subgroups defined by baseline SGLT2i use, UACR ≥30 mg/g, eGFR 300 mg/g) . During the follow-up to 1weeks, TZP participants experienced significantly fewer renal outcomes, especially new onset of macroalbuminuria versus iGlar (Table) . In people with T2D and high cardiovascular risk, TZP reduced markers of diabetic kidney disease risk. Disclosure H.L.Heerspink: Consultant; AstraZeneca, Bayer AG, Boehringer Ingelheim International GmbH, Chinook Therapeutics Inc., CSL Behring, Gilead Sciences, Inc., Goldfinch Bio, Inc., Janssen Research & Development, LLC, Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corporation, Mundipharma, Traveere Pharmaceuticals, Research Support; AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim International GmbH, Novo Nordisk A/S. N.Sattar: Consultant; Afimmune Limited, Amgen Inc., AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim International GmbH, Eli Lilly and Company, Hanmi Pharm. Co., Ltd., Merck Sharp & Dohme Corp., Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation, Novo Nordisk, Pfizer Inc., Sanofi, Research Support; AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim International GmbH, Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation, Roche Diagnostics. I.Pavo: Employee; Eli Lilly and Company, Stock/Shareholder; Eli Lilly and Company. A.Haupt: Employee; Lilly, Stock/Shareholder; Lilly. K.L.Duffin: Employee; Eli Lilly and Company, Stock/Shareholder; Eli Lilly and Company, Pfizer Inc. Z.Yang: Employee; Eli Lilly and Company. R.Wiese: Employee; Eli Lilly and Company. K.R.Tuttle: Advisory Panel; Boehringer Ingelheim International GmbH, Gilead Sciences, Inc., Consultant; AstraZeneca, Eli Lilly and Company, Research Support; Bayer AG, Goldfinch Bio, Inc., Novo Nordisk, Travere. D.Cherney: Other Relationship; AbbVie Inc., AstraZeneca, Bayer AG, Boehringer Ingelheim International GmbH, Janssen Research & Development, LLC, Lilly, Maze, BMS, CSL-Behring, Merck, Otsuka, Novartis and Novo-Nordisk , Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corporation, Sanofi, Research Support; Boehringer Ingelheim-Lilly, Merck, Janssen, Sanofi, AstraZeneca and Novo-Nordisk. Funding Eli Lilly and Company

Context Novel dual glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) and glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist (RA) tirzepatide demonstrated substantially greater glucose control and weight loss (WL) compared with selective GLP-1RA dulaglutide. Objective Explore mechanisms of glucose control by tirzepatide. Design Post hoc analyses of fasting biomarkers and multiple linear regression analysis. Setting Forty-seven sites in 4 countries. Patients or other Participants Three hundred and sixteen subjects with type 2 diabetes. Interventions Tirzepatide (1, 5, 10, 15 mg), dulaglutide (1.5 mg), placebo. Main Outcome Measures Analyze biomarkers of beta-cell function and insulin resistance (IR) and evaluate WL contributions to IR improvements at 26 weeks. Results Homeostatic model assessment (HOMA) 2-B significantly increased with dulaglutide and tirzepatide 5, 10, and 15 mg compared with placebo (P ≤ .02). Proinsulin/insulin and proinsulin/C-peptide ratios significantly decreased with tirzepatide 10 and 15 mg compared with placebo and dulaglutide (P ≤ .007). Tirzepatide 10 and 15 mg significantly decreased fasting insulin (P ≤ .033) and tirzepatide 10 mg significantly decreased HOMA2-IR (P = .004) compared with placebo and dulaglutide. Markers of improved insulin sensitivity (IS) adiponectin, IGFBP-1, and IGFBP-2 significantly increased by 1 or more doses of tirzepatide (P < .05). To determine whether improvements in IR were directly attributable to WL, multiple linear regression analysis with potential confounding variables age, sex, metformin, triglycerides, and glycated hemoglobin A1c was conducted. WL significantly (P ≤ .028) explained only 13% and 21% of improvement in HOMA2-IR with tirzepatide 10 and 15 mg, respectively. Conclusions Tirzepatide improved markers of IS and beta-cell function to a greater extent than dulaglutide. IS effects of tirzepatide were only partly attributable to WL, suggesting dual receptor agonism confers distinct mechanisms of glycemic control.

Background & Aims Serum microRNA (miRNA) levels are known to change in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and may serve as useful biomarkers. This study aimed to profile miRNAs comprehensively at all NAFLD stages. Methods We profiled 2,083 serum miRNAs in a discovery cohort (183 cases with NAFLD representing the complete NAFLD spectrum and 10 population controls). miRNA libraries generated by HTG EdgeSeq were sequenced by Illumina NextSeq. Selected serum miRNAs were profiled in 372 additional cases with NAFLD and 15 population controls by quantitative reverse transcriptase PCR. Results Levels of 275 miRNAs differed between cases and population controls. Fewer differences were seen within individual NAFLD stages, but miR-193a-5p consistently showed increased levels in all comparisons. Relative to NAFL/non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) with mild fibrosis (stage 0/1), 3 miRNAs (miR-193a-5p, miR-378d, and miR378d) were increased in cases with NASH and clinically significant fibrosis (stages 2–4), 7 (miR193a-5p, miR-378d, miR-378e, miR-320b, miR-320c, miR-320d, and miR-320e) increased in cases with NAFLD activity score (NAS) 5–8 compared with lower NAS, and 3 (miR-193a-5p, miR-378d, and miR-378e) increased but 1 (miR-19b-3p) decreased in steatosis, activity, and fibrosis (SAF) activity score 2–4 compared with lower SAF activity. The significant findings for miR-193a-5p were replicated in the additional cohort with NAFLD. Studies in Hep G2 cells showed that following palmitic acid treatment, miR-193a-5p expression decreased significantly. Gene targets for miR-193a-5p were investigated in liver RNAseq data for a case subgroup (n = 80); liver GPX8 levels correlated positively with serum miR-193a-5p. Conclusions Serum miR-193a-5p levels correlate strongly with NAFLD activity grade and fibrosis stage. MiR-193a-5p may have a role in the hepatic response to oxidative stress and is a potential clinically tractable circulating biomarker for progressive NAFLD. Lay summary MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are small pieces of nucleic acid that may turn expression of genes on or off. These molecules can be detected in the blood circulation, and their levels in blood may change in liver disease including non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). To see if we could detect specific miRNA associated with advanced stages of NAFLD, we carried out miRNA sequencing in a group of 183 patients with NAFLD of varying severity together with 10 population controls. We found that a number of miRNAs showed changes, mainly increases, in serum levels but that 1 particular miRNA miR-193a-5p consistently increased. We confirmed this increase in a second group of cases with NAFLD. Measuring this miRNA in a blood sample may be a useful way to determine whether a patient has advanced NAFLD without an invasive liver biopsy., Graphical abstract, Highlights • Serum miRNA was sequenced in 183 NAFLD cases of varying severity and 10 population controls. • Plasma levels of miR-193a-5p were significantly increased in patients with advanced fibrosis, high NAS scores, or high SAF scores. • Other miRNAs including miR378d and miR378e were also significantly increased in certain comparisons. • The findings for miR-193a-5p were replicated in a cohort of 372 additional NAFLD cases.

Aim To better understand the marked decrease in serum triglycerides observed with tirzepatide in patients with type 2 diabetes, additional lipoprotein-related biomarkers were measured post hoc in available samples from the same study. Materials and Methods Patients were randomized to receive once-weekly subcutaneous tirzepatide (1, 5, 10 or 15 mg), dulaglutide (1.5 mg) or placebo. Serum lipoprotein profile, apolipoprotein (apo) A-I, B and C-III and preheparin lipoprotein lipase (LPL) were measured at baseline and at 4, 12 and 26 weeks. Lipoprotein particle profile by nuclear magnetic resonance was assessed at baseline and 26 weeks. The lipoprotein insulin resistance (LPIR) score was calculated. Results At 26 weeks, tirzepatide dose-dependently decreased apoB and apoC-III levels, and increased serum preheparin LPL compared with placebo. Tirzepatide 10 and 15 mg decreased large triglyceride-rich lipoprotein particles (TRLP), small low-density lipoprotein particles (LDLP) and LPIR score compared with both placebo and dulaglutide. Treatment with dulaglutide also reduced apoB and apoC-III levels but had no effect on either serum LPL or large TRLP, small LDLP and LPIR score. The number of total LDLP was also decreased with tirzepatide 10 and 15 mg compared with placebo. A greater reduction in apoC-III with tirzepatide was observed in patients with high compared with normal baseline triglycerides. At 26 weeks, change in apoC-III, but not body weight, was the best predictor of changes in triglycerides with tirzepatide, explaining up to 22.9% of their variability. Conclusions Tirzepatide treatment dose-dependently decreased levels of apoC-III and apoB and the number of large TRLP and small LDLP, suggesting a net improvement in atherogenic lipoprotein profile.

BACKGROUND & AIMS:The enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) test has been proposed for the non-invasive assessment of advanced fibrosis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We performed a systematic review to estimate the accuracy of this test against biopsy. METHODS:In this systematic review, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science and the Cochrane Library for studies that included patients with NAFLD and that used both liver biopsy (as the reference standard) and the ELF test. Two authors independently screened the references, extracted the data and assessed the quality of included studies. Due to the variation in reported thresholds, we used a multiple thresholds random effects model for meta-analysis (diagmeta R-package). RESULTS:The meta-analysis of 11 studies reporting advanced fibrosis and 5 studies reporting significant fibrosis showed that the ELF test had a sensitivity of >0.90 for excluding fibrosis at a threshold of 7.7. However, as a diagnostic test at high thresholds, the test only achieved specificity and positive predictive value >0.80 in very high prevalence settings (>50%). To achieve a specificity of 0.90 for advanced and significant fibrosis, thresholds of 10.18 (sensitivity: 0.57) and 9.86 (sensitivity: 0.55) were required, respectively. CONCLUSION:The ELF test showed high sensitivity but limited specificity to exclude advanced and significant fibrosis at low cut-offs. The diagnostic performance of the test at higher thresholds was found to be more limited in low-prevalence settings. We conclude that clinicians should carefully consider the likely disease prevalence in their practice setting and adopt suitable test thresholds to achieve the desired performance. LAY SUMMARY:The enhanced liver fibrosis test has been suggested as a non-invasive blood test to aid the diagnosis of severe liver fibrosis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Our study results showed that the test has a high negative predictive value, especially in populations with low disease prevalence (likely encountered in primary care); so, it can exclude advanced fibrosis in patients with NAFLD. However, when prevalence is low, the positive predictive value of the enhanced liver fibrosis test is low, suggesting that additional strategies may be needed to make a positive diagnosis in such settings.

Clinical risk factors explain only a fraction of the variability of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline in people with type 2 diabetes. Cross-omics technologies by virtue of a wide spectrum screening of plasma samples have the potential to identify biomarkers for the refinement of prognosis in addition to clinical variables. Here we utilized proteomics, metabolomics and lipidomics panel assay measurements in baseline plasma samples from the multinational PROVALID study (PROspective cohort study in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus for VALIDation of biomarkers) of patients with incident or early chronic kidney disease (median follow-up 35 months, median baseline eGFR 84 mL/min/1.73 m(2), urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio 8.1 mg/g). In an accelerated case-control study, 258 individuals with a stable eGFR course (median eGFR change 0.1 mL/min/year) were compared to 223 individuals with a rapid eGFR decline (median eGFR decline -6.75 mL/min/year) using Bayesian multivariable logistic regression models to assess the discrimination of eGFR trajectories. The analysis included 402 candidate predictors and showed two protein markers (KIM-1, NTproBNP) to be relevant predictors of the eGFR trajectory with baseline eGFR being an important clinical covariate. The inclusion of metabolomic and lipidomic platforms did not improve discrimination substantially. Predictions using all available variables were statistically indistinguishable from predictions using only KIM-1 and baseline eGFR (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.63). Thus, the discrimination of eGFR trajectories in patients with incident or early diabetic kidney disease and maintained baseline eGFR was modest and the protein marker KIM-1 was the most important predictor.

In a phase 2 trial of once-weekly tirzepatide (1, 5, 10, or 15 mg), dulaglutide (1.5 mg), or placebo, the dual glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist tirzepatide dose-dependently reduced HbA1c and body weight in patients with type 2 diabetes. In this post hoc analysis, inflammation, endothelial dysfunction, and cellular stress biomarkers were measured at baseline, 4, 12, and 26 weeks to evaluate the additional effects of tirzepatide on cardiovascular risk factors. At 26 weeks, tirzepatide 10 and 15 mg decreased YKL-40 (also known as chitinase-3 like-protein-1), intercellular adhesion molecule 1 (ICAM-1), leptin, and growth differentiation factor 15 levels versus baseline, and YKL-40 and leptin levels versus placebo and dulaglutide. Tirzepatide 15 mg also decreased ICAM-1 levels versus placebo and dulaglutide, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) levels versus baseline and placebo, but not dulaglutide. GlycA, interleukin 6, vascular cell adhesion molecule 1, and N-terminal-pro hormone B-type natriuretic peptide levels were not significantly changed in any group. YKL-40, hsCRP, and ICAM-1 levels rapidly decreased within 4 weeks of treatment with tirzepatide 10 and 15 mg, whereas the decrease in leptin levels was more gradual and did not plateau by 26 weeks. In this hypothesis-generating exploratory analysis, tirzepatide decreased several biomarkers that have been associated with cardiovascular risk.

The functional interpretation of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) is challenging due to the cell-type-dependent influences of genetic variants. Here, we generated comprehensive maps of expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) for 659 microdissected human kidney samples and identified cell-type-eQTLs by mapping interactions between cell type abundances and genotypes. By partitioning heritability using stratified linkage disequilibrium score regression to integrate GWAS with single-cell RNA sequencing and single-nucleus assay for transposase-accessible chromatin with high-throughput sequencing data, we prioritized proximal tubules for kidney function and endothelial cells and distal tubule segments for blood pressure pathogenesis. Bayesian colocalization analysis nominated more than 200 genes for kidney function and hypertension. Our study clarifies the mechanism of commonly used antihypertensive and renal-protective drugs and identifies drug repurposing opportunities for kidney disease.

This study applies a large proteomics panel to search for new circulating biomarkers associated with progression to kidney failure in individuals with diabetic kidney disease. Four independent cohorts encompassing 754 individuals with type 1 and type 2 diabetes and early and late diabetic kidney disease were followed to ascertain progression to kidney failure. During ten years of follow-up, 227 of 754 individuals progressed to kidney failure. Using the SOMAscan proteomics platform, we measured baseline concentration of 1129 circulating proteins. In our previous publications, we analyzed 334 of these proteins that were members of specific candidate pathways involved in diabetic kidney disease and found 35 proteins strongly associated with risk of progression to kidney failure. Here, we examined the remaining 795 proteins using an untargeted approach. Of these remaining proteins, 11 were significantly associated with progression to kidney failure. Biological processes previously reported for these proteins were related to neuron development (DLL1, MATN2, NRX1B, KLK8, RTN4R and ROR1) and were implicated in the development of kidney fibrosis (LAYN, DLL1, MAPK11, MATN2, endostatin, and ROR1) in cellular and animal studies. Specific mechanisms that underlie involvement of these proteins in progression of diabetic kidney disease must be further investigated to assess their value as targets for kidney-protective therapies. Using multivariable LASSO regression analysis, five proteins (LAYN, ESAM, DLL1, MAPK11 and endostatin) were found independently associated with risk of progression to kidney failure. Thus, our study identified proteins that may be considered as new candidate prognostic biomarkers to predict risk of progression to kidney failure in diabetic kidney disease. Furthermore, three of these proteins (DLL1, ESAM, and MAPK11) were selected as candidate biomarkers when all SOMAscan results were evaluated.

Diabetic kidney disease (DKD) and its major clinical manifestation, progressive renal decline that leads to end-stage renal disease (ESRD), are a major health burden for individuals with diabetes. The disease process that underlies progressive renal decline comprises factors that increase risk as well as factors that protect against this outcome. Using untargeted proteomic profiling of circulating proteins from individuals in two independent cohorts with type 1 and type 2 diabetes and varying stages of DKD followed for 7 to 15 years, we identified three elevated plasma proteins-fibroblast growth factor 20 (OR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.54 to 0.88), angiopoietin-1 (OR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.57 to 0.91), and tumor necrosis factor ligand superfamily member 12 (OR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.59 to 0.95)-that were associated with protection against progressive renal decline and progression to ESRD. The combined effect of these three protective proteins was demonstrated by very low cumulative risk of ESRD in those who had baseline concentrations above median for all three proteins, whereas the cumulative risk of ESRD was high in those with concentrations below median for these proteins at the beginning of follow-up. This protective effect was shown to be independent from circulating inflammatory proteins and clinical covariates and was confirmed in a third cohort of diabetic individuals with normal renal function. These three protective proteins may serve as biomarkers to stratify diabetic individuals according to risk of progression to ESRD and might also be investigated as potential therapeutics to delay or prevent the onset of ESRD.

The genomic regulatory networks underlying the pathogenesis of non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS) are incompletely understood. As intermediate traits, protein biomarkers report on underlying disease severity and prognosis in NSTE-ACS. We hypothesized that integration of dense microRNA (miRNA) profiling with biomarker measurements would highlight potential regulatory pathways that underlie the relationships between prognostic biomarkers, miRNAs, and cardiovascular phenotypes. We performed miRNA sequencing using whole blood from 186 patients from the TRILOGY-ACS trial. Seven circulating prognostic biomarkers were measured: NH2-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, osteopontin (OPN), myeloperoxidase, growth differentiation factor 15, monocyte chemoattractant protein, and neopterin. We tested miRNAs for association with each biomarker with generalized linear models and controlled the false discovery rate at 0.05. Ten miRNAs, including known cardiac-related miRNAs 25-3p and 423-3p, were associated with NT-proBNP levels (min. P = 7.5 × 10−4) and 48 miRNAs, including cardiac-related miRNAs 378a-3p, 20b-5p and 320a, -b, and -d, were associated with OPN levels (min. P = 1.6 × 10−6). NT-proBNP and OPN were also associated with time to cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction (MI), or stroke in the sample. By integrating large-scale miRNA profiling with circulating biomarkers as intermediate traits, we identified associations of known cardiac-related and novel miRNAs with two prognostic biomarkers and identified potential genomic networks regulating these biomarkers. These results, highlighting plausible biological pathways connecting miRNAs with biomarkers and outcomes, may inform future studies seeking to delineate genomic pathways underlying NSTE-ACS outcomes.

We have deployed a multi-omics approach in large cohorts of patients with existing type 2 diabetes to identify biomarkers for disease progression across three molecular classes, metabolites, lipids and proteins. A Cox regression analysis for association with time to insulin requirement in 2,973 patients in the DCS, ANDIS and GoDARTS cohorts identified homocitrulline, isoleucine and 2-aminoadipic acid, as well as the bile acids glycocholic and taurocholic acids, as predictive of more rapid deterioration. Increased levels of eight triacylglycerol species, and lowered levels of the sphingomyelin SM 42:2;2 were also predictive of disease progression. Of ∼1,300 proteins examined in two cohorts, levels of GDF-15/MIC1, IL-18RA, CRELD1, NogoR, FAS, and ENPP7 were associated with faster progression, whilst SMAC/DIABLO, COTL1, SPOCK1 and HEMK2 predicted lower progression rates. Strikingly, identified proteins and lipids were also associated with diabetes incidence and prevalence in external replication cohorts. Implicating roles in disease compensation, NogoR/RTN4R improved glucose tolerance in high fat-fed mice and tended to improved insulin signalling in liver cells whilst IL-18R antagonised inflammatory IL-18 signalling towards nuclear factor kappa-B in vitro. Conversely, high NogoR levels led to islet cell apoptosis. This comprehensive, multi-disciplinary approach thus identifies novel biomarkers with potential prognostic utility, provides evidence for new disease mechanisms, and identifies potential therapeutic avenues to slow diabetes progression.

The hepatokine follistatin is elevated in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and promotes hyperglycemia in mice. Here we explore the relationship of plasma follistatin levels with incident T2D and mechanisms involved. Adjusted hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation (SD) increase in follistatin levels for T2D is 1.24 (CI: 1.04–1.47, p, Follistatin promotes in type 2 diabetes (T2D) pathogenesis in model animals and is elevated in patients with T2D. Here the authors report that plasma follistatin associates with increased risk of incident T2D in two longitudinal cohorts, and show that follistatin regulates insulin-induced suppression lipolysis in cultured human adipocytes.

OBJECTIVE: The role of fibrosis in early progressive renal decline in type 2 diabetes is unknown. Circulating WFDC2 (WAP four-disulfide core domain protein 2) and matrix metalloproteinase 7 (MMP-7; Matrilysin) are postulated to be biomarkers of renal fibrosis. This study examined an association of circulating levels of these proteins with early progressive renal decline. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Individuals with type 2 diabetes enrolled in the Joslin Kidney Study with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) were monitored for 6–12 years to ascertain fast early progressive renal decline, defined as eGFR loss ≥5 mL/min/1.73 m(2)/year. RESULTS: A total of 1,181 individuals were studied: 681 without and 500 with albuminuria. Median eGFR and albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) at baseline were 97 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and 24 mg/g, respectively. During follow-up, 152 individuals experienced fast early progressive renal decline: 6.9% in those with normoalbuminuria and 21% with albuminuria. In both subgroups, the risk of renal decline increased with increasing baseline levels of WFDC2 (P < 0.0001) and MMP-7 (P < 0.0001). After adjustment for relevant clinical characteristics and known biomarkers, an increase by one quartile in the fibrosis index (combination of levels of WFDC2 and MMP-7) was associated with higher risk of renal decline (odds ratio 1.63; 95% CI 1.30–2.04). The association was similar and statistically significant among patients with and without albuminuria. CONCLUSIONS: Elevation of circulating profibrotic proteins is associated with the development of early progressive renal decline in type 2 diabetes. This association is independent from albuminuria status and points to the importance of the fibrotic process in the development of early renal decline.

Introduction: The dual GIP/GLP-1 receptor agonist tirzepatide dose-dependently reduced HbA1c and body weight in patients with obesity and type 2 diabetes (T2D) in a Phase 2 trial. Hypothesis: In this post hoc analysis, additional biomarkers of inflammation, endothelial dysfunction, and cellular stress were measured to better understand possible additional effects of tirzepatide treatment on cardiovascular risk factors. Methods: Patients with T2D were randomly assigned to receive either once-weekly subcutaneous injection of tirzepatide (1, 5, 10, or 15 mg), GLP-1 receptor agonist dulaglutide (1.5 mg), or placebo for 26 weeks. Soluble ICAM-1 and VCAM-1, IL-6, NT-proBNP, hsCRP and GDF-15 were assessed by immunoassay at baseline and 26 weeks in stored serum or EDTA plasma samples. Results were analyzed in a modified intent-to-treat population using a mixed effect model for repeated measures. Results: At 26 weeks, tirzepatide dose-dependently decreased ICAM-1 levels compared to baseline (Table). ICAM-1 levels were also significantly lower with tirzepatide 15 mg than placebo or dulaglutide. Moreover, tirzepatide 15 mg significantly decreased hsCRP levels from baseline compared with placebo. GDF-15 levels were decreased from baseline with all tirzepatide doses and with dulaglutide; however, changes in GDF-15 levels with tirzepatide were not significantly different from those with placebo or dulaglutide. Levels of IL-6, VCAM-1 or NT-proBNP were unchanged in all groups. Conclusions: In a 26-week study in patients with obesity and T2D, treatment with tirzepatide dose-dependently decreased circulating levels of specific biomarkers of inflammation and endothelial dysfunction previously associated with cardiovascular events, thus suggesting a net improvement in the cardiovascular risk profile of these patients. Clinical relevance of these changes will be assessed in the planned cardiovascular outcome study SURPASS-CVOT (NCT04255433).

The functional interpretation of GWAS remains challenging due to cell-type dependent influences of genetic variants.Here, we generated comprehensive maps of expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) for 659 microdissected human kidney samples and identified cell-type eQTLs by mapping interactions between cell type abundance and genotype. Separately, we generated single cell open chromatin maps (by snATAC-seq) for human kidney samples. We highlight critical enrichment of proximal tubules in kidney function and endothelial cells and distal tubule segments in blood pressure by partitioning heritability using stratified LD-score regression to integrate GWAS with scRNA-seq and snATAC-seq data. Bayesian colocalization analysis nominated more than 200 genes for kidney function and hypertension. Our study clarifies the mechanism of the most commonly used antihypertensive and renal protective drugs and identifies drug repurposing opportunities for kidney disease.One Sentence SummaryWe define causal cell types, genes and mechanism for kidney dysfunction.

Background/Introduction In a Phase 2 trial, tirzepatide (TZP) dose-dependently reduced HbA1c, body weight and serum triglycerides in moderately obese type 2 diabetes (T2D) patients. Purpose To understand changes in fasting serum lipids with TZP, lipidomics profiling of multiple lipid classes was conducted. Methods Patients (n=314) were randomized to receive weekly subcutaneous TZP, dulaglutide, or placebo for 26 weeks. Shotgun lipidomic analysis was performed in positive electrospray using a Sciex Triple TOF 5600 mass spectrometer operating in MS/MSALL mode and sphingomyelin (SPM) data were acquired in positive electrospray TOF mode. Data were assessed using MMRM. Results At 26 weeks, total cholesterol esters (CE), phosphatidylcholines (PC) and phosphatidylinositols (PI) increased with placebo; dulaglutide treatment did not affect any lipid class (Table). With TZP 10 and 15 mg, total triacylglycerides (TAG), diacylglycerides (DAG), phosphatidylethanolamines (PE), PC and PI dose-dependently decreased at 4, 12 and 26 weeks, whereas total CE and phosphatidylserines (PS) levels did not change at any timepoint. At 26 weeks, individual, but not total, SPM and ceramide (Cer) changes were observed with TZP 15 mg. Most saturated, long chain SPM (14:0, 20:0, 21:0, 22:0, 23:0, 24:0) and Cer (22:0, 23:0, 24:0) were reduced by 8–16% and 14–20%, respectively. Conversely, unsaturated SPM (24:1,24:2) increased by 6.5% and 11.4%, and unsaturated glycosylated Cer 16:0 lactosyl and 24:1 hexosyl increased by 22.4% and 19.3%, respectively. TZP 10 and 15 mg decreased total SPM by 4–6% at 4 weeks, and total Cer between 8% and 13% at 4 and 12 weeks. Conclusions Tirzepatide dose-dependently reduced levels of total TAG, DAG, PE, PC, and PI at all timepoints, whereas levels of saturated long chain SPM and Cer were reduced and those of some unsaturated SPM and glycosylated Cer increased at 26 weeks. Net improvements in lipidomics profiling with tirzepatide warrant further evaluation of potential benefits on cardiovascular events and NASH. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): Eli Lilly and Company

OBJECTIVE: The role of fibrosis in early progressive renal decline in type 2 diabetes is unknown. Circulating WFDC2 (WAP four-disulfide core domain protein 2) and MMP-7 (Matrilysin) are postulated to be biomarkers of renal fibrosis. This study examined an association of circulating levels of these proteins with early progressive renal decline. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Individuals with type 2 diabetes enrolled in the Joslin Kidney Study with eGFR ≥60 ml/min/1.73m2 were followed for 6-12 years to ascertain fast early progressive renal decline defined as eGFR loss ≥5 ml/min/1.73m2/year. RESULTS: A total of 1,181 individuals were studied: 681 without and 500 with albuminuria. Median eGFR and ACR at baseline were 97 ml/min/1.73m2 and 24 mg/g, respectively. During follow-up, 152 individuals experienced fast early progressive renal decline: 6.9% in those with normoalbuminuria and 21% with albuminuria. In both subgroups risk of renal decline increased with increasing baseline levels of WFDC2 (p CONCLUSIONS: Elevation of circulating profibrotic proteins is associated with the development of early progressive renal decline in type 2 diabetes. This association is independent from albuminuria status and points to the importance of the fibrotic process in development of early renal decline.

The AWARD-7 clinical trial demonstrated that once-weekly dulaglutide slowed the decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and decreased urine albumin/creatinine ratio compared to insulin glargine in patients with type 2 diabetes and moderate-to-severe chronic kidney disease (CKD). Lower levels of urinary C3M, a marker for type III collagen degradation, and increased level of plasma PRO-C6, a marker for type VI collagen formation, have been reported to correlate with CKD progression and lower eGFR. This exploratory analysis evaluated changes in urinary C3M and plasma PRO-C6 in response to treatment with dulaglutide 1.5 mg compared to insulin glargine in AWARD-7. At baseline, urinary C3M and serum PRO-C6 levels were comparable between the dulaglutide 1.5 mg and insulin glargine groups. At week 26 and 52 of treatment, urinary C3M levels were significantly higher and serum PRO-C6 levels were significantly lower in the dulaglutide 1.5 mg group compared with insulin glargine group, respectively (Table). In conclusion, dulaglutide was associated with decreased levels of biomarkers for type VI collagen formation and increased type III collagen degradation, suggesting a potential effect to reduce kidney fibrosis. These anti-fibrotic effects could be a potential mechanism for the beneficial effects observed with dulaglutide treatment on CKD in type 2 diabetes. Disclosure K.R. Tuttle: Consultant; Self; AstraZeneca, Bayer Inc., Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc., Eli Lilly and Company, Gilead Sciences, Inc., Goldfinch Bio, Novo Nordisk Inc. J.M. Wilson: Employee; Self; Lilly Diabetes. Y. Lin: None. H. Qian: Employee; Self; Eli Lilly and Company. K. Kelly-Boruff: Employee; Self; Eli Lilly and Company. F. Genovese: None. M.A. Karsdal: Stock/Shareholder; Self; Nordic Bioscience. K.L. Duffin: Employee; Self; Eli Lilly and Company. Stock/Shareholder; Self; Pfizer Inc. F.T. Botros: Employee; Self; Eli Lilly and Company. Stock/Shareholder; Self; Eli Lilly and Company. Funding Eli Lilly and Company

INTRODUCTION Metabolic-associated fatty liver disease is common, with fibrosis the major determinant of adverse outcomes. Population-based screening tools with high diagnostic accuracy for the staging of fibrosis are lacking. METHODS Three independent cohorts, 2 with both liver biopsy and liver stiffness measurements (LSMs, n = 254 and 65) and a population sample (n = 713), were studied. The performance of a recently developed noninvasive algorithm (ADAPT [age, diabetes, PRO-C3 and platelets panel]) as well as aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index, fibrosis-4, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score, and LSM was used to stage patients for significant (≥F2) and advanced (≥F3) fibrosis. RESULTS In the hospital-based cohorts, the N-terminal propeptide of type 3 collagen (Pro-C3) increased with fibrosis stage (P < 0.0001) and independently associated with advanced fibrosis (odds ratio = 1.091, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.053-1.113, P = 0.0001). ADAPT showed areas under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.831 (95% CI: 0.779-0.875) in the derivation and 0.879 (95% CI: 0.774-0.946) in the validation cohort for advanced fibrosis. This was superior to the existing fibrosis scores, aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index, fibrosis-4, BARD (BMI, aspartate aminotransferase to alanine aminotransferase ratio [AAR], diabetes), and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score in most comparisons and comparable with LSM. Serial use of ADAPT and LSM had diagnostic accuracy of 92.5%, with 98% and 100% negative predictive value in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. In the population cohort, PRO-C3 associated with advanced fibrosis (P = 0.04), while ADAPT had a negative predictive value of 98% for excluding advanced fibrosis. DISCUSSION PRO-C3 and ADAPT reliably exclude advanced fibrosis in low-risk populations. The serial combination of ADAPT with LSM has high diagnostic accuracy with a low requirement for liver biopsy. The proposed algorithm would help stratify those who need biopsies and narrow down those patients who would need to be referred to specialty clinics.

Objective: To determine the effect of tirzepatide, a dual agonist of glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) and glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptors, on biomarkers of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and fibrosis in T2DM patients. Research Design and Methods: T2DM patients received either once weekly tirzepatide (1, 5, 10, or 15 mg), dulaglutide (1.5 mg), or placebo for 26 weeks. Changes from baseline in alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), Keratin-18 (K-18), Procollagen III (Pro-C3), and adiponectin, were analyzed in a modified intent-to-treat population. Results: Significant (p Conclusions: In post-hoc analyses, higher tirzepatide doses significantly decreased NASH-related biomarkers and increased adiponectin in T2DM patients.

IntroductionAssociation between elevated cytokeratin 18 (CK-18) levels and hepatocyte death has made circulating CK-18 a candidate biomarker to differentiate non-alcoholic fatty liver from non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). Yet studies produced variable diagnostic performance. We aimed to provide summary estimates with increased precision for the accuracy of CK-18 (M30, M65) in detecting NASH and fibrosis among non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) adults.MethodsWe searched five databases to retrieve studies evaluating CK-18 against a liver biopsy in NAFLD adults. Reference screening, data extraction and quality assessment (QUADAS-2) were independently conducted by two authors. Meta-analyses were performed for five groups based on the CK-18 antigens and target conditions, using one of two methods: linear mixed-effects multiple thresholds model or bivariate logit-normal random-effects model.ResultsWe included 41 studies, with data on 5,815 participants. A wide range of disease prevalence was observed. No study reported a pre-defined cut-off. Thirty of 41 studies provided sufficient data for inclusion in any of the meta-analyses. Summary AUC [95% CI] were: 0.75 [0.69-0.82] (M30) and 0.82 [0.69-0.91] (M65) for NASH; 0.73 [0.57-0.85] (M30) for fibrotic NASH; 0.68 (M30) for significant (F2-4) fibrosis; and 0.75 (M30) for advanced (F3-4) fibrosis. Thirteen studies used CK-18 as a component of a multimarker model.ConclusionsFor M30 we found lower diagnostic accuracy to detect NASH compared to previous meta-analyses, indicating a limited ability to act as a stand-alone test, with better performance for M65. Additional external validation studies are needed to obtain credible estimates of the diagnostic accuracy of multimarker models.

OBJECTIVE The role of fibrosis in early progressive renal decline in type 2 diabetes is unknown. Circulating WFDC2 (WAP four-disulfide core domain protein 2) and matrix metalloproteinase 7 (MMP-7; Matrilysin) are postulated to be biomarkers of renal fibrosis. This study examined an association of circulating levels of these proteins with early progressive renal decline. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Individuals with type 2 diabetes enrolled in the Joslin Kidney Study with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m2 were monitored for 6–12 years to ascertain fast early progressive renal decline, defined as eGFR loss ≥5 mL/min/1.73 m2/year. RESULTS A total of 1,181 individuals were studied: 681 without and 500 with albuminuria. Median eGFR and albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) at baseline were 97 mL/min/1.73 m2 and 24 mg/g, respectively. During follow-up, 152 individuals experienced fast early progressive renal decline: 6.9% in those with normoalbuminuria and 21% with albuminuria. In both subgroups, the risk of renal decline increased with increasing baseline levels of WFDC2 (P < 0.0001) and MMP-7 (P < 0.0001). After adjustment for relevant clinical characteristics and known biomarkers, an increase by one quartile in the fibrosis index (combination of levels of WFDC2 and MMP-7) was associated with higher risk of renal decline (odds ratio 1.63; 95% CI 1.30–2.04). The association was similar and statistically significant among patients with and without albuminuria. CONCLUSIONS Elevation of circulating profibrotic proteins is associated with the development of early progressive renal decline in type 2 diabetes. This association is independent from albuminuria status and points to the importance of the fibrotic process in the development of early renal decline.

Despite significant effort, patients with kidney disease have not seen their outcomes improved significantly over the past two decades. This has motivated clinicians and researchers to consider alternative methods to identifying risk factors, disease progression markers, and effective therapies. Genome-scale data sets from patients with renal disease can be used to establish a platform to improve understanding of the molecular basis of disease; however, such studies require expertise and resources. To overcome these challenges, we formed an academic-industry consortium to share molecular target identification efforts and expertise across academia and the pharmaceutical industry. The Renal Pre-Competitive Consortium (RPC2) aims to accelerate novel drug development for kidney diseases through a systems biology approach. Here, we describe the rationale, philosophy, establishment, and initial results of this strategy.

Background Inflammation signaled by Janus kinases (JAKs) promotes progression of diabetic kidney disease (DKD). Baricitinib is an oral, reversible, selective inhibitor of JAK1 and JAK2. This study tested the efficacy of baricitinib versus placebo on albuminuria in adults with Type 2 diabetes at high risk for progressive DKD. Methods In this Phase 2, double-blind, dose-ranging study, participants were randomized 1:1:1:1:1 to receive placebo or baricitinib (0.75 mg daily; 0.75 mg twice daily; 1.5 mg daily; or 4 mg daily), for 24 weeks followed by 4–8 weeks of washout. Results Participants (N = 129) were 63±9.1 (mean±standard deviation) years of age, 27.1% (35/129) women and 11.6% (15/129) African-American race. Baseline hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) was 7.3±1% and estimated glomerular filtration rate was 45.0±12.1 mL/min/1.73 m2 with first morning urine albumin–creatinine ratio (UACR) of 820 (407–1632) (median; interquartile range) mg/g. Baricitinib, 4 mg daily, decreased morning UACR by 41% at Week 24 compared with placebo (ratio to baseline 0.59, 95% confidence interval 0.38–0.93, P = 0.022). UACR was decreased at Weeks 12 and 24 and after 4–8 weeks of washout. Baricitinib 4 mg decreased inflammatory biomarkers over 24 weeks (urine C–X–C motif chemokine 10 and urine C–C motif ligand 2, plasma soluble tumor necrosis factor receptors 1 and 2, intercellular adhesion molecule 1 and serum amyloid A). The only adverse event rate that differed between groups was anemia at 32.0% (8/25) for baricitinib 4 mg daily versus 3.7% (1/27) for placebo. Conclusions Baricitinib decreased albuminuria in participants with Type 2 diabetes and DKD. Further research is required to determine if baricitinib reduces DKD progression.

OBJECTIVE To determine the effect of tirzepatide, a dual agonist of glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide and glucagon-like peptide 1 receptors, on biomarkers of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and fibrosis in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Patients with T2DM received either once weekly tirzepatide (1, 5, 10, or 15 mg), dulaglutide (1.5 mg), or placebo for 26 weeks. Changes from baseline in alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), keratin-18 (K-18), procollagen III (Pro-C3), and adiponectin were analyzed in a modified intention-to-treat population. RESULTS Significant (P < 0.05) reductions from baseline in ALT (all groups), AST (all groups except tirzepatide 10 mg), K-18 (tirzepatide 5, 10, 15 mg), and Pro-C3 (tirzepatide 15 mg) were observed at 26 weeks. Decreases with tirzepatide were significant compared with placebo for K-18 (10 mg) and Pro-C3 (15 mg) and with dulaglutide for ALT (10, 15 mg). Adiponectin significantly increased from baseline with tirzepatide compared with placebo (10, 15 mg). CONCLUSIONS In post hoc analyses, higher tirzepatide doses significantly decreased NASH-related biomarkers and increased adiponectin in patients with T2DM.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is common in T2D patients and increases the risk of NASH and cirrhosis. In a Phase 2 trial, TZP significantly reduced HbA1c and body weight at 26 weeks (≥ 37% achieved 10% weight loss at 2 highest doses). Patients with T2D were randomly assigned (1:1:1:1:1:1) to receive either once-weekly sc TZP (1, 5, 10, or 15 mg), dulaglutide (1.5 mg), or placebo for 26 weeks. Because of the overlap of T2D and NAFLD populations, we measured several NASH related biomarkers to explore whether TZP may have potential efficacy in NASH. These included: ALT, AST, Keratin-18 M30 fragment (K-18, apoptosis marker; Peviva), Pro-C3 (fibrosis marker, a fragment of the NH2-terminal propeptide of type III procollagen; Nordic Bioscience), and adiponectin (adipokine that protects liver from inflammation and fibrosis; Pacific Biomarkers). Results (Table) were analyzed in a modified intent-to-treat population using a mixed model for repeated measures. Significant (p Disclosure M.L. Hartman: Employee; Self; Eli Lilly and Company. A. Sanyal: Consultant; Self; Ardelyx, Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc., Exhalenz, Gilead Sciences, Inc., Hemoshear, Intercept Pharmaceuticals, Inc., Lilly, Mallinckrodt Pharmaceuticals, Nimbus Therapeutics, Nitto Denko, Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation, Pfizer Inc. Employee; Self; Sanyal Bio. Research Support; Self; Bristol-Myers Squibb Company, Conatus Pharmaceuticals Inc., Echosens, Galectin Therapeutics Inc., Immuron Ltd, Merck & Co., Inc., Salix Pharmaceuticals, Sequanna. Stock/Shareholder; Self; Akarna Therapeutics, GENFIT, Natural Shield, NewCo LLC, Tiziana. Other Relationship; Self; Elsevier, UpToDate. R. Loomba: Consultant; Self; Eli Lilly and Company, Novo Nordisk Inc. J.M. Wilson: Employee; Self; Eli Lilly and Company. R. Bray: Employee; Self; Eli Lilly and Company. A. Nikooienejad: Research Support; Self; Eli Lilly and Company. K.L. Duffin: Employee; Self; Eli Lilly and Company. Stock/Shareholder; Self; Pfizer Inc. D.A. Robins: Employee; Self; Eli Lilly and Company. A. Haupt: Employee; Self; Lilly Diabetes. Stock/Shareholder; Self; Lilly Diabetes. Funding Eli Lilly and Company

Chronic inflammation is postulated to be involved in development of end stage renal disease (ESRD) in diabetes, but which specific circulating inflammatory proteins contribute to this risk remains unknown. To study this we examined 194 circulating inflammatory proteins in subjects from three independent cohorts with Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes. In each cohort we identified an extremely robust Kidney Risk Inflammatory Signature (KRIS) consisting of 17 novel proteins enriched for TNF Receptor Superfamily members that was associated with a 10-year risk of ESRD. All these proteins had a systemic, non-kidney source. Our prospective study findings provide strong evidence that KRIS proteins contribute to the inflammatory process underlying ESRD development in both types of diabetes. These proteins may be used as new therapeutic targets, new prognostic tests for high risk of ESRD and as surrogate outcome measures where changes in KRIS levels during intervention can reflect the tested therapy’s effectiveness., One Sentence Summary: Proteomic profiling of circulating proteins in subjects from three independent cohorts with type 1 and type 2 diabetes, identified an extremely robust inflammatory signature, consisting of 17 proteins enriched for TNF Receptor Superfamily members that was associated with a 10-year risk of end-stage renal disease.

Growth/differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15) is a distant member of the transforming growth factor β (TGF-β) superfamily and is widely expressed in multiple mammalian tissues. Its expression is highly regulated and is often induced in response to conditions associated with cellular stress. GDF15 serum levels have a strong association with many diseases, including inflammation, cancer, cardiovascular diseases, and obesity, and potentially serve as reliable predictor of disease progression. A functional role for GDF15 has been suggested in cancer, cardiovascular disease, kidney disease and metabolic disease. However, the knowledge of its pathophysiological function at the molecular level is still limited and requires more investigation. Recent identification of the endogenous receptor for GDF15 may provide additional insight in to its' molecular mechanisms and relationship to disease states.

TGF-β has been implicated as a major pathogenic factor in diabetic nephropathy. This randomized, double-blind, phase 2 study assessed whether modulating TGF-β1 activity with a TGF-β1–specific, humanized, neutralizing monoclonal antibody (TGF-β1 mAb) is safe and more effective than placebo in slowing renal function loss in patients with diabetic nephropathy on chronic stable renin-angiotensin system inhibitor treatment. We randomized 416 patients aged ≥25 years with type 1 or type 2 diabetes, a serum creatinine (SCr) level of 1.3–3.3 mg/dl for women and 1.5–3.5 mg/dl for men (or eGFR of 20–60 ml/min per 1.73 m2), and a 24-hour urine protein-to-creatinine ratio ≥800 mg/g to TGF-β1 mAb (2-, 10-, or 50-mg monthly subcutaneous dosing for 12 months) or placebo. We assessed a change in SCr from baseline to 12 months as the primary efficacy variable. Although the Data Monitoring Committee did not identify safety issues, we terminated the trial 4 months early for futility on the basis of their recommendation. The placebo group had a mean±SD change in SCr from baseline to end of treatment of 0.33±0.67 mg/dl. Least squares mean percentage change in SCr from baseline to end of treatment did not differ between placebo (14%; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 9.7% to 18.2%) and TGF-β1 mAb treatments (20% [95% CI, 15.3% to 24.3%], 19% [95% CI, 14.2% to 23.0%], and 19% [95% CI, 14.0% to 23.3%] for 2-, 10-, and 50-mg doses, respectively). Thus, TGF-β1 mAb added to renin-angiotensin system inhibitors did not slow progression of diabetic nephropathy.

OBJECTIVE The decline of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in patients with type 2 diabetes is variable, and early interventions would likely be cost-effective. We elucidated the contribution of 17 plasma biomarkers to the prediction of eGFR loss on top of clinical risk factors. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We studied participants in PROVALID (PROspective cohort study in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus for VALIDation of biomarkers), a prospective multinational cohort study of patients with type 2 diabetes and a follow-up of more than 24 months (n = 2,560; baseline median eGFR, 84 mL/min/1.73 m2; urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, 8.1 mg/g). The 17 biomarkers were measured at baseline in 481 samples using Luminex and ELISA. The prediction of eGFR decline was evaluated by linear mixed modeling. RESULTS In univariable analyses, 9 of the 17 markers showed significant differences in median concentration between stable and fast-progressing patients. A linear mixed model for eGFR obtained by variable selection exhibited an adjusted R2 of 62%. A panel of 12 biomarkers was selected by the procedure and accounted for 34% of the total explained variability, of which 32% was due to 5 markers. The individual contribution of each biomarker to the prediction of eGFR decline on top of clinical predictors was generally low. When included into the model, baseline eGFR exhibited the largest explained variability of eGFR decline (R2 of 79%), and the contribution of each biomarker dropped below 1%. CONCLUSIONS In this longitudinal study of patients with type 2 diabetes and maintained eGFR at baseline, 12 of the 17 candidate biomarkers were associated with eGFR decline, but their predictive power was low.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) affects a significant number of patients with T2DM and places them at an increased risk of steatohepatitis (NASH) and cirrhosis. However, it is widely underdiagnosed due to lack of a simple, non-invasive test for its diagnosis. The aim of this study was to establish a plasma biomarker profile to identify NAFLD and NASH in patients with T2DM. We recruited 220 patients with T2DM (59±8 years; BMI: 33.6±4.8 kg/m2; A1c: 7.1±1.2%) and screened them for NAFLD by liver magnetic resonance spectroscopy (No NAFLD: n=76; NAFLD: n=144). If positive, a liver biopsy was performed (Isolated steatosis: n=73; NASH: n=71). All patients underwent untargeted plasma metabolomics and lipidomics. To account for multiple comparisons, a Bonferroni’s adjusted p-value Conclusion: Metabolomics/lipidomics may hold promise to non-invasively diagnose NAFLD in patients with T2DM, although its ability to identify those with NASH remains to be established. Disclosure F. Bril: None. S. Kalavalapalli: None. K.L. Duffin: Employee; Self; Eli Lilly and Company. Stock/Shareholder; Self; Pfizer Inc. M.L. Hartman: Employee; Self; Eli Lilly and Company. Stock/Shareholder; Self; Eli Lilly and Company. Y. Chen: None. Q. Yang: None. J.V. Haas: Employee; Self; Eli Lilly and Company. Stock/Shareholder; Self; Eli Lilly and Company. P.L. Milligan: Employee; Self; Eli Lilly and Company. Stock/Shareholder; Self; Eli Lilly and Company. K.D. Roth: Employee; Self; Eli Lilly and Company. Stock/Shareholder; Self; Eli Lilly and Company. K. Cusi: Consultant; Self; Janssen Global Services, LLC., Eli Lilly and Company. Research Support; Self; Cirius Therapeutics. Other Relationship; Self; Nordic Bioscience. Research Support; Self; Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation, Novo Nordisk Inc.. Other Relationship; Self; Quest Diagnostics. Research Support; Self; Zydus Pharmaceuticals (USA) Inc.. Other Relationship; Self; OWL metabolomics, Echosens. Research Support; Self; Janssen Global Services, LLC.. Consultant; Self; Tobira Therapeutics, Pfizer Inc..

To identify determinants of early progressive renal decline in type 2 diabetes a range of markers was studied in 1032 patients enrolled into the 2nd Joslin Kidney Study. eGFR slopes estimated from serial measurements of serum creatinine during 5-12 years of follow-up were used to define early renal decline. At enrollment, all patients had normal eGFR, 58% had normoalbuminuria and 42% had albuminuria. Early renal decline developed in 6% and in 18% patients, respectively. As determinants, we examined baseline values of clinical characteristics, circulating markers: TNFR1, KIM-1, and FGF23, and urinary markers: albumin, KIM-1, NGAL, MCP-1, EGF (all normalized to urinary creatinine) and the ratio of EGF to MCP-1. In univariate analysis, all plasma and urinary markers were significantly associated with risk of early renal decline. When analyzed together, systolic blood pressure, TNFR1, KIM-1, the albumin to creatinine ratio, and the EGF/MCP-1 ratio remained significant with the latter having the strongest effect. Integration of these markers into a multi-marker prognostic test resulted in a significant improvement of discriminatory performance of risk prediction of early renal decline, compared with the albumin to creatinine ratio and systolic blood pressure alone. However, the positive predictive value was only 50% in albuminuric patients. Thus, markers in plasma and urine indicate that the early progressive renal decline in Type 2 diabetes has multiple determinants with strong evidence for involvement of tubular damage. However, new, more informative markers are needed to develop a better prognostic test for such decline that can be used in a clinical setting.

Design of Phase III trials for diabetic nephropathy currently requires patients at a high risk of progression defined as within three years of a hard end point (end-stage renal disease, 40% loss of estimated glomerular filtration rate, or death). To improve the design of these trials, we used natural history data from the Joslin Kidney Studies of chronic kidney disease in patients with diabetes to develop an improved criterion to identify such patients. This included a training cohort of 279 patients with type 1 diabetes and 134 end points within three years, and a validation cohort of 221 patients with type 2 diabetes and 88 end points. Previous trials selected patients using clinical criteria for baseline urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio and estimated glomerular filtration rate. Application of these criteria to our cohort data yielded sensitivities (detection of patients at risk) of 70-80% and prognostic values of only 52-63%. We applied classification and regression trees analysis to select from among all clinical characteristics and markers the optimal prognostic criterion that divided patients with type 1 diabetes according to risk. The optimal criterion was a serum tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 level over 4.3 ng/ml alone or 2.9-4.3 ng/ml with an albumin-to-creatinine ratio over 1900 mg/g. Remarkably, this criterion produced similar results in both type 1 and type 2 diabetic patients. Overall, sensitivity and prognostic value were high (72% and 81%, respectively). Thus, application of this criterion to enrollment in future clinical trials could reduce the sample size required to achieve adequate statistical power for detection of treatment benefits.

BACKGROUND Diabetic nephropathy imposes a substantial cardiovascular and renal burden contributing to both morbidity and excess mortality. Progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in diabetes mellitus is variable, and few biomarkers are available to predict progression accurately. Identification of novel predictive biomarkers may inform clinical care and assist in the design of clinical trials. We hypothesized that urinary and plasma protein biomarkers predict CKD progression independently of the known clinical markers such as albuminuria and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in diabetic nephropathy. METHODS We studied 67 US veterans with CKD due to type 2 diabetes mellitus and 20 age-matched controls (no CKD, hypertension or cardiovascular disease). After clinical evaluation and the collection of blood and urine specimens for 24 biomarkers, we followed subjects prospectively for the next 2-6 years. CKD progression was defined in three ways: (i) clinically by examining eGFR versus time plots for each individual (slope progression), (ii) progression to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and (iii) a composite outcome of ESRD or death. RESULTS Among 17 urinary and 7 plasma biomarkers evaluated, the relationship of the biomarkers with outcome was as follows: (i) for progression identified by eGFR plots, urinary C-terminal fibroblast growth factor (FGF)-23 emerged to have the strongest primary association (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.08, P = 0.008); (ii) for ESRD, plasma vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) had an association (aOR: 1.44, P = 0.027) and (iii) for the composite outcome of death and ESRD, plasma C-terminal FGF-23 also had a robust direct association (aOR: 3.07, P = 0.008). CONCLUSION The relationship of biomarkers with future progression of CKD is complex and depends in part on how CKD progression is defined. Biomarkers in the FGF-23 and VEGF-A pathways predicted patient progression independently of albuminuria levels in this patient cohort. Additional studies in other cohorts will help further validate this pilot study.