1. Probabilistic Regularized Extreme Learning for Robust Modeling of Traffic Flow Forecasting
- Author
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Ruiqin Wang, Qing Shen, Zechao Li, Jiang Yunliang, and Jungang Lou
- Subjects
Adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system ,Artificial neural network ,Computer Networks and Communications ,Computer science ,business.industry ,Probabilistic logic ,02 engineering and technology ,Traffic flow ,Machine learning ,computer.software_genre ,Computer Science Applications ,Noise ,Artificial Intelligence ,Kernel (statistics) ,Outlier ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,020201 artificial intelligence & image processing ,Artificial intelligence ,business ,computer ,Software ,Extreme learning machine - Abstract
The adaptive neurofuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is a structured multioutput learning machine that has been successfully adopted in learning problems without noise or outliers. However, it does not work well for learning problems with noise or outliers. High-accuracy real-time forecasting of traffic flow is extremely difficult due to the effect of noise or outliers from complex traffic conditions. In this study, a novel probabilistic learning system, probabilistic regularized extreme learning machine combined with ANFIS (probabilistic R-ELANFIS), is proposed to capture the correlations among traffic flow data and, thereby, improve the accuracy of traffic flow forecasting. The new learning system adopts a fantastic objective function that minimizes both the mean and the variance of the model bias. The results from an experiment based on real-world traffic flow data showed that, compared with some kernel-based approaches, neural network approaches, and conventional ANFIS learning systems, the proposed probabilistic R-ELANFIS achieves competitive performance in terms of forecasting ability and generalizability.
- Published
- 2023
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