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We study poverty dynamics and vulnerability in Tanzania between 2012 and 2018 using synthetic panel methods. Under the surface of apparent stability in aggregate poverty rates, and despite robust economic growth, households experienced strong fluctuations in consumption levels during this period: 12.5% of the population remained in persistent poverty, a further 30% experienced transient poverty, and one of five Tanzanians above the poverty line in 2012 was poor 6 years later. Education and employment in the nonfarm sector are particularly effective at shielding households from poverty, while rural and large households with many children are most likely to slip into poverty. Considerable differences exist between less-deprived areas such as Dar es Salaam or Kilimanjaro and regions in the northwest, where persistent poverty is especially high. Looking ahead to the impact of COVID-19, those households least prepared to take preventive measures against the virus suffer from more adverse poverty dynamics, while those involved in the sectors taking the hardest economic hit from the pandemic start from a better pre-pandemic situation. This suggests that novel policies that specifically support this ‘new vulnerable’ need to be combined with redoubled efforts to address the structural causes of poverty and vulnerability.

The dairy industry has great potential to improve living standards for the poor in Tanzania and more so for smallholder farmers who account for the largest share of milk consumed nationally. To inc...

We use methods developed by the Commitment to Equity and data from the 2011/12 Household Budget Survey to assess the effects of government taxation, social spending and indirect subsidies on poverty and inequality in Tanzania. We also simulate several policy reforms to assess their distributional consequences. We find that Tanzania redistributes more than expected given its relatively low income and inequality, largely because both direct and indirect taxes are more progressive than in other countries. Tanzania's nascent conditional cash transfer program has an excellent targeting mechanism. If the program were expanded to a size that is typical for lower-middle income countries, it could reduce poverty significantly. On the other hand, electricity subsidies are regressive despite attempts to make them more pro-poor with a lifeline tariff.

Background Literature on African women tobacco farmers in many countries suggests they are the most overworked members of their economies. The study presented here attempts to quantify the amount of labor women tobacco farmers exert in tobacco, maize and a third crop. Methods Stratified sampling, cross-classified tables, multiple linear regression were applied. A sample of 408 women tobacco farmers from the Tabora region of Tanzania were selected and interviewed. Women labor input was measured in man-days and was compared with the man-days of adult males and children's labor input. Results The results show that 251 man-days per year are spent on farming activities; 42 percent of these are undertaken by women farmers. 78 percent of time devoted to farming is earmarked for tobacco farming. Out of the 198 days devoted to tobacco farming, 43 percent is undertaken by women. The contribution to labor input by children is only 5 percent. When classified by type of agricultural activities, men spend more time in land clearing and planting, while women spend more time in weeding and harvesting. When classified by age, older women spend more time than younger women. Using a multiple linear regression, the determinants of the magnitude of women labor input were identified. The results show that women who spend more time in tobacco farming are relatively old; they get less or no remittance; they reside far from major towns; they do not have much wealth, and they have little access to alternative employment. Conclusions These variables indicate that women tobacco farmers are poor. Further, the amount of time women spend in tobacco farming appears to be very high; this is likely to lead to tobacco related health hazards.