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2. Convection-permitting climate models offer more certain extreme rainfall projections

Author

Fosser, Giorgia, Gaetani, Marco, Kendon, Elizabeth J., Adinolfi, Marianna, Ban, Nikolina, Belušić, Danijel, Caillaud, Cécile, Careto, João A. M., Coppola, Erika, Demory, Marie-Estelle, de Vries, Hylke, Dobler, Andreas, Feldmann, Hendrik, Goergen, Klaus, Lenderink, Geert, Pichelli, Emanuela, Schär, Christoph, Soares, Pedro M. M., Somot, Samuel, and Tölle, Merja H.

Published
2024
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8. Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Change Simulations for Understanding Future Climate and Informing Decision-Making in Africa

Author

Senior, Catherine A., Marsham, John H., Berthou, Ségolène, Burgin, Laura E., Folwell, Sonja S., Kendon, Elizabeth J., Klein, Cornelia M., Jones, Richard G., Mittal, Neha, Rowell, David P., Tomassini, Lorenzo, Vischel, Théo, Becker, Bernd, Birch, Cathryn E., Crook, Julia, Dougill, Andrew J., Finney, Declan L., Graham, Richard J., Hart, Neil C. G., Jack, Christopher D., Jackson, Lawrence S., James, Rachel, Koelle, Bettina, Misiani, Herbert, Mwalukanga, Brenda, Parker, Douglas J., Stratton, Rachel A., Taylor, Christopher M., Tucker, Simon O., Wainwright, Caroline M., Washington, Richard, and Willet, Martin R.

Published
2021

10. Are convection‐permitting climate projections reliable for urban planning over Africa? A case study of Johannesburg.

Author

Keat, William J., Short, Chris J., and Kendon, Elizabeth J.

Subjects
CLIMATE change adaptation, URBAN heat islands, CITIES & towns, ATMOSPHERIC models, URBAN planning
Abstract

Cities are particularly vulnerable to surface water flooding. It is also well‐known that they influence local rainfall themselves, which has important implications for climate change adaptation planning for cities. At km‐scale resolution, convection‐permitting climate models (CPCMs) better resolve cities and should better represent local urban temperature and rainfall modifications. However, using state‐of‐the‐art pan‐African CPCM simulations with the Met Office Unified Model (CP4), we show that for the city of Johannesburg, South Africa, this is not the case. A significant enhancement of rainfall occurs over the city compared with surrounding rural areas, which is not seen in available observations. We demonstrate this is associated with an overestimated urban heat island effect, which leads to additional triggering of rainfall. Urban signals in future rainfall change are small compared with changes in the wider surroundings, the latter of which we expect to be more reliable than in models with parameterized convection. This suggests that deficiencies in representation of urban processes are of secondary importance in terms of future percentage change in rainfall. We recommend urban planners apply relative changes in CP4 as an uplift to observations, where available, or treat absolute future rainfall as an upper estimate if used directly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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17. The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution, part I: evaluation of precipitation

Author

Ban, Nikolina, Caillaud, Cécile, Coppola, Erika, Pichelli, Emanuela, Sobolowski, Stefan, Adinolfi, Marianna, Ahrens, Bodo, Alias, Antoinette, Anders, Ivonne, Bastin, Sophie, Belušić, Danijel, Berthou, Ségolène, Brisson, Erwan, Cardoso, Rita M., Chan, Steven C., Christensen, Ole Bøssing, Fernández, Jesús, Fita, Lluís, Frisius, Thomas, Gašparac, Goran, Giorgi, Filippo, Goergen, Klaus, Haugen, Jan Erik, Hodnebrog, Øivind, Kartsios, Stergios, Katragkou, Eleni, Kendon, Elizabeth J., Keuler, Klaus, Lavin-Gullon, Alvaro, Lenderink, Geert, Leutwyler, David, Lorenz, Torge, Maraun, Douglas, Mercogliano, Paola, Milovac, Josipa, Panitz, Hans-Juergen, Raffa, Mario, Remedio, Armelle Reca, Schär, Christoph, Soares, Pedro M. M, Srnec, Lidija, Steensen, Birthe Marie, Stocchi, Paolo, Tölle, Merja H., Truhetz, Heimo, Vergara-Temprado, Jesus, de Vries, Hylke, Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten, Wulfmeyer, Volker, and Zander, Mar Janne

Published
2021
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18. The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution part 2: historical and future simulations of precipitation

Author

Pichelli, Emanuela, Coppola, Erika, Sobolowski, Stefan, Ban, Nikolina, Giorgi, Filippo, Stocchi, Paolo, Alias, Antoinette, Belušić, Danijel, Berthou, Segolene, Caillaud, Cecile, Cardoso, Rita M., Chan, Steven, Christensen, Ole Bøssing, Dobler, Andreas, de Vries, Hylke, Goergen, Klaus, Kendon, Elizabeth J., Keuler, Klaus, Lenderink, Geert, Lorenz, Torge, Mishra, Aditya N., Panitz, Hans-Juergen, Schär, Christoph, Soares, Pedro M. M., Truhetz, Heimo, and Vergara-Temprado, Jesus

Published
2021
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19. Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes

Author

Fowler, Hayley J., Lenderink, Geert, Prein, Andreas F., Westra, Seth, Allan, Richard P., Ban, Nikolina, Barbero, Renaud, Berg, Peter, Blenkinsop, Stephen, Do, Hong X., Guerreiro, Selma, Haerter, Jan O., Kendon, Elizabeth J., Lewis, Elizabeth, Schaer, Christoph, Sharma, Ashish, Villarini, Gabriele, Wasko, Conrad, and Zhang, Xuebin

Published
2021
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23. Northwestern Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events in a Warmer Climate: Robust Versus Uncertain Changes With a Large Convection‐Permitting Model Ensemble.

Author

Caillaud, Cécile, Somot, Samuel, Douville, Hervé, Alias, Antoinette, Bastin, Sophie, Brienen, Susanne, Demory, Marie‐Estelle, Dobler, Andreas, Feldmann, Hendrik, Frisius, Thomas, Goergen, Klaus, Kendon, Elizabeth J., Keuler, Klaus, Lenderink, Geert, Mercogliano, Paola, Pichelli, Emanuela, Soares, Pedro M. M., Tölle, Merja H., and de Vries, Hylke

Subjects
GLOBAL warming, CLIMATE change models, ATMOSPHERIC models
Abstract

Taking advantage of a large ensemble of Convection Permitting‐Regional Climate Models on a pan‐Alpine domain and of an object‐oriented dedicated analysis, this study aims to investigate future changes in high‐impact fall Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events at high warming levels. We identify a robust multi‐model agreement for an increased frequency from central Italy to the northern Balkans combined with a substantial extension of the affected areas, for a dominant influence of the driving Global Climate Models for projecting changes in the frequency, and for an increase in intensity, area, volume and severity over the French Mediterranean. However, large quantitative uncertainties persist despite the use of convection‐permitting models, with no clear agreement in frequency changes over southeastern France and a large range of plausible changes in events' properties, including for the most intense events. Model diversity and international coordination are still needed to provide policy‐relevant climate information regarding precipitation extremes. Plain Language Summary: Despite growing computational resources and multiple model developments, projecting future changes in the high‐impact Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events remains both a numerical and scientific challenge. The present study takes advantage of the recent availability of a relatively large ensemble of high resolution Regional Climate Models (2–3 km), which represent a step change in the simulation of precipitation extremes, and of an object‐oriented approach, allowing us to track the convective precipitating systems on an hourly basis. Looking at future changes in fall Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events at high warming levels, we identify a robust multi‐model agreement for an increased frequency from central Italy to the northern Balkans combined with a substantial expansion of the affected areas, and an increase in intensity, area, volume and severity over the French Mediterranean. However, considerable uncertainties remain in terms of frequency over parts of the domain arising from uncertainty in changes in large scale weather patterns, and in terms of degree of intensification for the most intense events. It suggests the need for model diversity and for more coordinated high resolution climate projections with careful selection of different driving global models in order to provide policy‐relevant climate information regarding precipitation extremes. Key Points: High‐resolution ensemble and object‐oriented approach offer a unique opportunity to study changes in Mediterranean extreme precipitationRobust agreement is found for an increase in intensity, volume and severity for future French Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation EventsEven at convection‐permitting scale, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the degree of intensification of the most extreme events [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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32. Multiperspective view of the 1976 drought–heatwave event and its changing likelihood.

Author

Kendon, Elizabeth J., Ciavarella, Andy, McCarthy, Mark, Brown, Simon, Christidis, Nikos, Kay, Gillian, Dunstone, Nick, Fereday, David, and Pope, James O.

Subjects
*ATMOSPHERIC temperature, *HOT weather conditions, *RAINFALL, *OCEAN temperature, *ATMOSPHERIC models, *SUMMER, *DROUGHTS
Abstract

1976 was one of the most acute droughts in the UK, exceptional due to the compounding effects of low rainfall and hot summer temperatures. In this study, we provide a multiperspective view of the likelihood of a 1976‐like compound event occurring now and into the future. We find a high level of consistency in the messages emerging across a range of different approaches and climate modelling tools, from convection‐permitting climate projections to decadal hindcasts and global coupled‐model attribution ensembles. 1976 summer average temperatures remain, at the time of writing, amongst the highest on record, but with warming are becoming increasingly common. The nine‐month rainfall deficit to August 1976 was incredibly rare. Analysis here indicates that compound extremes like 1976 are expected to occur on time‐scales of hundreds to thousands of years in the present‐day climate, decreasing slightly into the future. The probability remains very small even if we account for favourable sea surface temperatures and atmospheric circulation that occurred in 1976. Similar but less severe events with a 1% chance of occurring in the present day are five times more frequent from the 2040s under RCP8.5. The occurrence of such compound events is significantly (up to an order of magnitude) higher than expected if temperature and rainfall extremes occurred independently. In general, differences in likelihood estimates between approaches can begin to be understood from how dependence between variables is handled, differences in bias correction, and different levels of conditioning (i.e., the probability given particular atmospheric or ocean states). The appropriate choice of conditioning very much depends on the question being asked and its unconscious use may lead to apparent contradictions. Parallels can be drawn between 1976 and the recent summer of 2022, and results here suggest that with hotter summers we should be prepared for more severe droughts like 1976 in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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36. CHALLENGES IN QUANTIFYING CHANGES IN THE GLOBAL WATER CYCLE

Author

Hegerl, Gabriele C., Black, Emily, Allan, Richard P., Ingram, William J., Polson, Debbie, Trenberth, Kevin E., Chadwick, Robin S., Arkin, Phillip A., Sarojini, Beena Balan, Becker, Andreas, Dai, Aiguo, Durack, Paul J., Easterling, David, Fowler, Hayley J., Kendon, Elizabeth J., Huffman, George J., Liu, Chunlei, Marsh, Robert, New, Mark, Osborn, Timoththy J., Skliris, Nikolaos, Stott, Peter A., Vidale, Pier-Luigi, Wijffels, Susan E., Wilcox, Laura J., Willett, Kate M., and Zhang, Xuebin

Published
2015

37. SUPPLEMENT : CHALLENGES IN QUANTIFYING CHANGES IN THE GLOBAL WATER CYCLE

Author

Hegerl, Gabriele C., Black, Emily, Allan, Richard P., Ingram, William J., Polson, Debbie, Trenberth, Kevin E., Chadwick, Robin S., Arkin, Phillip A., Sarojini, Beena Balan, Becker, Andreas, Dai, Aiguo, Durack, Paul J., Easterling, David, Fowler, Hayley J., Kendon, Elizabeth J., Huffman, George J., Liu, Chunlei, Marsh, Robert, New, Mark, Osborn, Timothy J., Skliris, Nikolaos, Stott, Peter A., Vidale, Pier-Luigi, Wijffels, Susan E., Wilcox, Laura J., Willett, Kate M., and Zhang, Xuebin

Published
2015

42. Convection in future winter storms over Northern Europe

Author

Berthou, Segolene, Roberts, Malcolm J., Vanniere, Benoit, Ban, Nikolina, Belušić, Danijel, Caillaud, Cecile, Crocker, Thomas, de Vries, Hylke, Dobler, Andreas, Harris, Dan, Kendon, Elizabeth J., Landgren, Oskar, Manning, Colin, Berthou, Segolene, Roberts, Malcolm J., Vanniere, Benoit, Ban, Nikolina, Belušić, Danijel, Caillaud, Cecile, Crocker, Thomas, de Vries, Hylke, Dobler, Andreas, Harris, Dan, Kendon, Elizabeth J., Landgren, Oskar, and Manning, Colin

Published
2022
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43. Resilience of UK crop yields to compound climate change

Author

Slater, Louise J., Huntingford, Chris, Pywell, Richard F., Redhead, John W., Kendon, Elizabeth J., Slater, Louise J., Huntingford, Chris, Pywell, Richard F., Redhead, John W., and Kendon, Elizabeth J.

Abstract

Recent extreme weather events have had severe impacts on UK crop yields, and so there is concern that a greater frequency of extremes could affect crop production in a changing climate. Here we investigate the impacts of future climate change on wheat, the most widely grown cereal crop globally, in a temperate country with currently favourable wheat-growing conditions. Historically, following the plateau of UK wheat yields since the 1990s, we find there has been a recent significant increase in wheat yield volatility, which is only partially explained by seasonal metrics of temperature and precipitation across key wheat growth stages (foundation, construction and production). We find climate impacts on wheat yields are strongest in years with compound weather extremes across multiple growth stages (e.g. frost and heavy rainfall). To assess how these conditions might evolve in the future, we analyse the latest 2.2 km UK Climate Projections (UKCP Local): on average, the foundation growth stage (broadly 1 October to 9 April) is likely to become warmer and wetter, while the construction (10 April to 10 June) and production (11 June to 26 July) stages are likely to become warmer and slightly drier. Statistical wheat yield projections, obtained by driving the regression model with UKCP Local simulations of precipitation and temperature for the UK's three main wheat-growing regions, indicate continued growth of crop yields in the coming decades. Significantly warmer projected winter night temperatures offset the negative impacts of increasing rainfall during the foundation stage, while warmer day temperatures and drier conditions are generally beneficial to yields in the production stage. This work suggests that on average, at the regional scale, climate change is likely to have more positive impacts on UK wheat yields than previously considered. Against this background of positive change, however, our work illustrates that wheat farming in the UK is likely to move outside

Published
2022

45. Convection-permitting climate models Offer More Certain Extreme Rainfall Projections

Author

Fosser, Giorgia, primary, Adinolfi, Marianna, additional, Ban, Nikolina, additional, Belušić, Danijel, additional, Caillaud, Cécile, additional, Cardoso, Rita M., additional, Coppola, Erika, additional, Demory, Marie-Estelle, additional, De Vries, Hylke, additional, Dobler, Andreas, additional, Feldmann, Hendrik, additional, Gaetani, Marco, additional, Görgen, Klaus, additional, Kendon, Elizabeth J., additional, Lenderink, Geert, additional, Pichelli, Emanuela, additional, Schär, Christoph, additional, Soares, Pedro M. M., additional, Somot, Samuel, additional, and Tölle, Merja H., additional

Published
2022
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