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Technical interactions (multiple fleets fishing multiple species with various gears, as either target or bycatch), bycatch regulations through a landing obligation, and biological and economic effects of climate change, affecting fisheries yield and profits, provide a challenge for demersal mixed fisheries of the North Sea. A multi‐stock, multi‐fleet, bioeconomic model was used to understand management options under these combined influences. Scenarios considered climate change effects on recruitment of three main gadoid stocks (cod – Gadus morhua, saithe – Pollachius virens, whiting – Merlangius merlangus), possible future developments of fuel and fish prices, and strict implementation of a landing obligation. The latter leads to decreased yield and profits in the short term due to increased choke effects, mainly of North Sea cod, being influenced by climate‐induced productivity changes. Allowing fishing above FMSY, but within sustainable limits, or limiting year‐to‐year quota changes, could help buffer initial losses at the expense of decreased profits in the mid‐ to long‐term. Economic performance of individual fleets was linked to their main target's stock status, cost structure, and fuel and fish prices. The results highlight a need to consider both biological and economic consequences of climate change in the management of mixed fisheries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the European Union (EU), the ecosystem approach to fisheries is implemented through several directives and polices, which are overarched by the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). The MSFD requires the assessment of the environmental status of exploited fish and shellfish stocks, among others, to advise the EU Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) on sustainable catch options. The stock assessments for the CFP and the MSFD are supposed to be congruent, yet they differ in several substantial subjects. While the annual CFP assessment is based on two indicators, fishing mortality (F) and spawning stock biomass (SSB), in its Descriptor 3 (D3) the MSFD requires the assessment of three criteria (F , SSB, and age or size structure) within a six year period. Assessing exploited fish and shellfish stocks under the MSFD by using existing CFP assessments has therefore been a half-completed task, which had to be fulfilled by the member states of the EU. This paper suggests six easy steps, referred to as "quick wins" (QW), which are based on existing information from CFP stock assessments. The implementation of these six QW would allow for assessments of exploited fish and shellfish stocks that are compliant to D3. These QW are to (i) assess length/age structure within a stock, (ii) analyse and assess selectivity by fisheries, (iii) use all available information to assess a stock, (iv) use response indicators to assess environmental targets, (v) provide integrated stock-specific advice, and (vi) provide assessments with a mid-term perspective over a-period of six years. International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) combines the infrastructure and expertise to produce stock-specific assessment products tailored to the requirements of MSFD D3. Thereby, ICES could provide a valuable service to EU member states in the north-east Atlantic region by providing scientifically validated, quality-assured, and MSFD-compliant single-stock assessment products. This would be a big advancement towards implementing the ecosystem approach to fisheries management within Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The advance of ecosystem-based fisheries management worldwide has made scientific advice on fisheries related questions more complex. However, despite the need to take interactions between fish stocks, and between stocks and their environment into account, multispecies and ecosystem models are still hardly used as a basis for fishery advice. Although reasons are numerous, the lack of high-level guidance for target-oriented skill assessments of such models contributes to the mistrust to use such models for advice. In this study, we propose a framework of guiding questions for a pragmatic and target-oriented skill assessment. The framework is relevant for all models irrespective of their complexity and approach. It starts with general questions on the advice purpose itself, the type of model(s) and data available for performance testing. After this, the credibility of the hindcasts are evaluated. A special emphasis is finally put on testing predictive skills. The skill assessment framework proposed provides a tool to evaluate a model's suitability for the purpose of providing specific advice and aims to avoid the bad practice of incomplete skill assessments. In the case of multiple models available, it can facilitate the evaluation or choosing of the best model(s) for a given advice product and intends to ensure a level playing field between models of different complexities. The suite of questions proposed is an important step to improve the quality of advice products for a successful implementation of ecosystem-based fisheries management. • Lack of high-level guidance for skill assessments contributes to the mistrust to use more complex models for fisheries advice. • A framework of guiding questions for a pragmatic and target-oriented skill assessment is proposed. • The framework intends to ensure a level playing field between models of different complexities. • The framework is an important step for a successful implementation of ecosystem approaches to fisheries management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In marine ecosystems, maximum sustainable yield considerations are affected by any substantial changes that occur in the top and bottom compartments of the food-web. This study explores how the southern North Sea’s fisheries may need to adjust their fishing efforts to maintain optimum yields of sole, plaice, cod and brown shrimps under increased marine mammal populations and a reduced primary productivity. We constructed plausible scenarios of ongoing food-web changes using the results of Bayesian age-structured population models to estimate carrying capacities of harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) and grey seals (Halichoerus grypus). Losses in primary productivity were predicted by lower trophic level ecosystem models. These scenarios were implemented in a food-web model of the southern North Sea. For each scenario, we sought mixed-fleet fishing efforts that would deliver maximum yields of sole, plaice, cod and brown shrimp combined. We also did so for a baseline run with unaltered mammal and primary production, and compared the differences in optimal fishing strategies, predicted yields, and states of the stocks between the scenarios. We found stocks and yields to be far more sensitive to changes in primary productivity than to increased marine mammal predation. The latter predominantly impacted cod, and even benefitted brown shrimps compared to the baseline run. Under 30% reduced primary productivity, fishing efforts had to be reduced by 50% to still provide maximum yields, whereas the marine mammal scenario induced no need to adjust the fishing regime. This draws attention to the potential gains of incorporating bottom-up processes into long-term management considerations, while marine mammal predation may be less of a concern, in particular for flatfish fisheries in the North Sea, and may even benefit shrimp trawlers because of reduced predation on shrimp from fish predators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The southern North Sea is the stage of conflicting objectives of beam trawlers targeting flatfish; of shrimp trawlers fishing for brown shrimp with bycatch of juvenile flatfish; and of demersal trawlers, the main fishery on cod, a key predator of shrimp and other groups. To expose trade-offs between the fleets’ objectives and to explore what a possible variant of a multispecies maximum sustainable yield (MSY) could look like, we parameterized an ecosystem model and subjected it to a range of different fishing effort levels of the three fleets. Long-term projections highlighted multiple fishing regimes that lead to catches of at least 30% of all focal stocks' single species MSYs at the same time. Trade-offs between the yields of shrimp fishers and demersal trawlers made higher simultaneous yields impossible. Besides optimizing multispecies catches, we identified effort regimes that satisfied a set of descriptors of good environmental status (GES). We found that GES can only be obtained through low efforts of beam and demersal trawlers, which cannot be aligned with our multispecies MSY variant without accepting trade-offs in fishing yields and/or conservation goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the last 15 years, northern European hake (Merluccius merluccius) has increased in abundance, and its spatial distribution has expanded in the North Sea region in correlation with temperature. In a context of globalwarming, this spatial shift could impact local trophic interactions: direct impactsmayaffect forage fish through modified predator-prey interactions, and indirect impactsmaymaterialize through competition with other resident predators. For instance, North Sea saithe (Pollachius virens) spatial overlap with hake has increased while saithe spawning-stock biomass has decreased recently notwithstanding a sustainable exploitation. In this context, we investigated the range of potential impacts resulting from most recent hake emergence in the North Sea, with a particular focus on saithe. We carried out a multispecies assessment of North Sea saithe, using the Stochastic MultiSpecies (SMS) model. In addition to top-down processes already implemented in SMS, we built in the model bottom-up processes, relating Norway pout (Trisopterus esmarkii) abundance and saithe weight-at-age. We simulated the effects, on all North Sea species being considered but focusing on Norway pout and saithe, of combining different hake abundance trends scenarios with the inclusion of bottom-up processes in SMS. North Sea saithe FMSY was then evaluated in a multispecies context and contrasted with single-species value. The different scenarios tested revealed a negative impact of hake emergence on saithe biomass, resulting from an increase of predation pressure on Norway pout. These results confirm the competition assumption between saithe and hake in the North Sea and might partially explain the most recent decrease of saithe biomass. This study also highlighted that taking into account bottom-up processes in the stock assessment had a limited effect on the estimation of saithe FMSY which was consistent with single-species value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The understanding of spatio-temporal dynamics of marine ecosystems is crucial for ecosystem-based fisheries management and climate change impact assessments. We quantified temporal changes in the distribution of 0-group cod ( Gadus morhua) and grey gurnard ( Eutriglia gurnardus), a primary predator of 0-group cod, with the help of regression kriging and assessed the temporal dynamics of the related spatial predator-prey overlap of these two species at different spatial scales. We analysed the robustness of relationships among abiotic habitat properties (temperature, salinity and depth) and abundance. Small cod was mainly found in low salinity areas of the Skagerrak but larger year classes were able to expand their distribution area towards the central and northern North Sea. In contrast, grey gurnard was mainly found in waters with salinities above 33 and temperatures above 14°C. This species has expanded its high density areas in the central North Sea northward over the last two decades. Recruitment success of cod was negatively correlated to a Moran's I cross-correlation index, a proxy for the degree of spatial overlap between both species. Strong cod year classes overlapped less with grey gurnard at the large and medium spatial scale. In general, the relationships between abiotic habitat properties and abundance showed an increased inter-annual variability, which was likely caused by underlying factors not taken into account in the distribution models. Thus assemblage modeling approaches combining the strength of different model types should be considered in the future to predict potential distribution patterns under climate change scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Kempf, A., Dingsør, G. E., Huse, G., Vinther, M., Floeter, J., and Temming, A. 2010. The importance of predator–prey overlap: predicting North Sea cod recovery with a multispecies assessment model. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 67: 1989–1997.The overlap between predator and prey is known as a sensitive parameter in multispecies assessment models for fish, and its parameterization is notoriously difficult. Overlap indices were derived from trawl surveys and used to parametrize the North Sea stochastic multispecies model. The effect of time-invariant and year- and quarter-specific overlap estimates on the historical (1991–2007) and predicted trophic interactions, as well as the development of predator and prey stocks, was investigated. The focus was set on a general comparison between single-species and multispecies forecasts and the sensitivity of the predicted development of North Sea cod for the two types of overlap implementation. The spatial–temporal overlap between cod and its predators increased with increasing temperature, indicating that foodweb processes might reduce the recovery potential of cod during warm periods. Multispecies scenarios were highly influenced by assumptions on future spatial overlap, but they predicted a considerably lower recovery potential than single-species predictions did. In addition, a recovery of North Sea cod had strong negative effects on its prey stocks. The consequences of these findings for management are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

To examine the treatment outcome for patients with acute bleeding from the lower gastrointestinal tract requiring transfusion and acute surgical care as a function of various risk factors Between 1999 and 2007, we collected data on 59 patients (39 male and 20 female patients) who received surgical intervention for acute lower intestinal hemorrhage requiring transfusion at our university clinic. Treatment complications and mortality were analyzed retrospectively. The average age of the patients in this study is 70.0 ± 12.2 years (range, 39 to 97 years) with an overall mortality of 15.3%. Blood transfusions >10 U ( p = 0.031), postoperative need for ventilation ( p = 0.004), necessary reoperations ( p = 0.016), and an initial hemoglobin level <80 g/L ( p = 0.043) proved to be significant risk factors for death. Blood transfusions >10 U ( p = 0.028), necessary reoperations ( p = 0.001), and an initial hemoglobin level <80 g/L ( p = 0.033) were found to be significant risk factors for postoperative complications. All other parameters have no significant impact. The decisive factors for the outcome of lower gastrointestinal hemorrhage requiring surgery are the severity of bleeding, beginning of treatment (initial hemoglobin level, need for packed red blood cells), and treatment efficiency (necessary reoperation). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interplay between temperature-related processes and predation in determining age-1 recruitment strength between 1992 and 2006 was analysed for North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) and Norway pout (Trisopterus esmarkii). For this purpose, an predation impact index (PI) was calculated out of survey data. PI was assumed to depend on the abundance of the predators and on the spatial overlap between predator and prey populations. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were created with spawning stock biomass (SSB) and sea surface temperature (SST) in the respective spawning and nursery areas and PI as explaining variables. SSB had no significant impact on recruitment during this time period for both species. SSTs during spring and PI explained the interannual variability in recruitment strength to a large extent (88% of the total variance for cod and 68% for Norway pout). The SST during spring determined the overall level of recruitment. At SSTs above a certain level, however, the effect on recruitment was no longer significant. In these temperature ranges, predation was the dominant effect. Therefore, the fate of North Sea cod and Norway pout stocks under global-warming conditions will be strongly influenced by the status of the North Sea food web. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Purpose: To this day, the diagnostic and therapeutic strategy for acute lower gastrointestinal hemorrhage requiring transfusion varies among different hospitals. The purpose of this paper was to evaluate our own data on the group of patients presented and to outline our diagnostic and therapeutic regime taking into account the literature of the past 30 years.Methods: Following prospective data collection on 63 patients of a university hospital (40 male, 23 female patients) who received surgical intervention for acute lower intestinal hemorrhage requiring transfusion, we retrospectively analyzed the data. After a medical history had been taken, all patients underwent clinical examination, including digital palpation; 62 patients underwent procto-rectoscopy, 38 gastroscopy and colonoscopy, 52 patients colonoscopy only, and 45 patients gastroscopy only. Angiography was applied in 14 cases and scintigraphy in 20 cases.Results: Diagnostic procedures to localize hemorrhage were successful in 61 cases, 41 of which through endoscopy, 12 through angiography, and eight through scintigraphy. Of our group of patients, 32 suffered from a bleeding colonic diverticulum, eight from angiodysplasia, and five from bleeding small bowel diverticula. Five patients had inflammatory bowel disease and three neoplasia. Among the surgical interventions, segmental resections were performed most frequently (15 sigmoidectomies, 11 small bowel segmental resections, 11 left hemicolectomies, seven right hemicolectomies, one proctectomy). Subtotal colectomies were carried out in ten cases. The complication rate for this group of critically ill, negatively selected patients was 60.3% and the mortality rate was 15.9%.Conclusions: Examination and stabilization of the patient is directly followed by diagnostic localization. Today, we primarily rely on nonsurgical control of hemorrhage by endoscopy or angiography; the indication for surgery is mainly limited to peracute, uncontrollable, and recurrent forms. In the case of surgery, intestinal segmental resection is recommended after identification of the lesion; if the localization of colonic hemorrhage is uncertain, subtotal resection is the method of choice. For stable patients with unverifiable small-bowel hemorrhage we recommend regular re-evaluation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The North Sea ecosystem of the early 1980s differed substantially from that of the early 1990s. The current North Sea multispecies fisheries assessment models are parameterized by fish diet data sets that reflect both ecosystem states, as the stomachs were sampled in 1981 and 1991. In this study, multispecies virtual population analysis (MSVPA) was parameterized with either diet data set, leading to different model food webs, each representing the predator's diet selection behavior and spatiotemporal overlap with their prey in the two respective ecosystem states. The impact of these changes in predator preferences and spatiotemporal overlap on recruitment success and on stock developments could be demonstrated by using either stomach data set to estimate historic and future spawning stock biomass and recruitment trajectories. The observed changes in the food web mainly impacted the hindcasted recruitment trajectories, whereas spawning stock biomass estimates were quite robust. In the prediction runs, the differences in the survival rate of the recruits decided whether fish stocks of commercially important species (e.g., Gadus morhua, Merlangius merlangus) would recover or collapse in the near future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Grey gurnard (Eutrigla gurnadus) is a widely distributed demersal species in the North Sea that has been ranked frequently among the 10 dominant species. Since the late 1980s, grey gurnard catch rates in the international bottom trawl surveys showed a pronounced increase and it was included as an "other predator" in the North Sea multispecies virtual population analysis (MSVPA) in 1997. The MSVPA results estimated grey gurnard to be responsible for approximately 60% of the total predation mortality on age-0 Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Long-term MSVPA predictions led to the extinction of North Sea cod. As a possible technical reason, the Holling type II functional response implemented in the model was discussed. In the current analysis, it was demonstrated that the Holling type II functional response was not responsible for the extinction of cod in the model, which was rather a true effect of high grey gurnard predation. Further, it was shown that grey gurnard predation had a significant top-down effect on whiting (Merlangius merlangus) and potentially also on cod recruitment, which was linked to the spatial distribution of the three species. Eventually, the implications of the results for North Sea cod stock recovery plans were discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have identified changes in habitat temperature as a major factor leading to the geographical displacement of North Sea cod in the last decades. However, the degree to which thermal suitability is presently changing in different regions of the North Sea is still unclear, or if temperature alone (or together with fishery) is responsible for this displacement. In this study, the spatial distribution of different life stages of cod was modelled from 1967 to 2015. The model is fit point-to-point, spatially resolved at scales of 20 km. The results show that suitability has decreased south of 56°N (>12% in the Southern Bight) and increased north of it (with maximum of roughly 10% in southern Skagerrak). Future changes to suitability were estimated throughout the century using temperature projections from a regional climate model under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenario RCP8.5. The results show that southern Skagerrak, the central and northern North Sea and the edge of the Norwegian trench will remain thermally suitable for North Sea cod throughout the century. This detailed geographical representation of thermally suitable key zones for North Sea cod under climate change is revealed for the first time through the improved resolution of this analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mixed fisheries occur when multiple species are caught together and harvested by multiple fleets. The biological and technical interactions in mixed fisheries distinguish them from single-species fisheries, which makes them challenging for their assessment and management. The present knowledge synthesis reviewed pertinent policy documents and academic databases for twenty-three mixed fisheries worldwide; aiming to characterize attributes of mixed fisheries, provide overviews on their assessment and management, assess current research progress, and identify key factors that impact management effectiveness. Mixed fisheries were found to exhibit varying characteristics worldwide, rendering the implementation of universal management solutions unlikely. While mixed fisheries stock assessment and management are mostly based on single-species approaches, additional mixed fisheries considerations were incorporated at various scales, including multispecies, sector-specific, fishery, and ecosystem levels. Ecosystem-wide management considerations were the most significant contributor to improved management performance in terms of conserving stock biomass and preventing overfishing, underscoring the merits of the Ecosystem-based Fisheries Management (EBFM) principle. Mixed fisheries research demonstrated regional and thematic variations, with the most popular topics addressing immediate and practical management concerns, and the less frequently discussed topics offering valuable insights related to climate change and socio-ecological perspectives. The synthesis identified the available management approaches for mixed fisheries from different jurisdictions, yet their diversity highlighted a lack of global consensus on best management practices. Future mixed fisheries will benefit from balancing tradeoffs between ecological and socio-economic needs, implementing EBFM, adopting diverse and harmonized management tools, and prioritizing monitoring efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding of the processes affecting recruitment of commercially important fish species is one of the major challenges in fisheries science. Towards this aim, we investigated the relation between North Sea hydrography (temperature and salinity) and fish stock variables (recruitment, spawning stock biomass and pre-recruitment survival index) for 9 commercially important fishes using spatially-resolved cross-correlation analysis. We used high-resolution (0.2° × 0.2°) hydrographic data fields matching the maximal temporal extent of the fish population assessments (1948–2013). Our approach allowed for the identification of regions in the North Sea where environmental variables seem to be more influential on the fish stocks, as well as the regions of a lesser or nil influence. Our results confirmed previously demonstrated negative correlations between temperature and recruitment of cod and plaice and identified regions of the strongest correlations (German Bight for plaice and north-western North Sea for cod). We also revealed a positive correlation between herring spawning stock biomass and temperature in the Orkney-Shetland area, as well as a negative correlation between sole pre-recruitment survival index and temperature in the German Bight. A strong positive correlation between sprat stock variables and salinity in the central North Sea was also found. To our knowledge the results concerning correlations between North Sea hydrography and stocks’ dynamics of herring, sole and sprat are novel. The new information about spatial distribution of the correlation provides an additional help to identify mechanisms underlying these correlations. As an illustration of the utility of these results for fishery management, an example is provided that incorporates the identified environmental covariates in stock-recruitment models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wide spread use of sandwich structures is still inhibited by the lack of a consistent joining technology one which is easy to work with, quantifiable and not dependent on special knowledge about manufacturing processes. A mechanical technology for joining sandwiches as developed in this article shall achieve these goals. The developing process follows the design methodology according to Pahl et al. [1]. The resulting systematic approach to the problem facilitated the generation of a complete solution field. This approach led to 18 promising concepts of 783 possible original solutions. Prototypes of those concepts showed that a reliable mechanical technology for joining sandwich elements is feasible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite regular reforms, problems under the EU's Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) persist. In order to identify priorities for future reforms of the policy, we developed an analytical framework consisting of 17 criteria and specifying indicators, derived from scientific, wider fisheries, and common resources literature. We applied the framework to the CFP governance system, its regulations, institutions, and processes at EU as well as member state level. The results show that the CFP does not fully meet any of the 17 criteria for an effective resource policy. Its performance was assessed as "neutral" regarding 10 criteria and "negative" regarding seven criteria. Trend analysis shows that there is a slightly positive trend regarding the CFP's performance, with five criteria trending positively, 11 showing a neutral trend and only one criterion trending negatively (simplicity of rules). The analysis identified five criteria which are performing badly and have not improved over time: simplicity of rules, user‐pays principle, resource efficiency, accountability, and compliance mechanisms. Future reforms of the CFP should first and foremost address these criteria while continuing efforts to improve the CFP's performance regarding other criteria. The evaluation of the CFP demonstrates the applicability of the analytical framework which can also be applied to other multilevel fisheries governance systems. Moreover, the results can inform reforms of Regional Fisheries Management Organisations. Like the CFP, these institutions manage transboundary fisheries and have not effectively addressed the issues of resource rent capture and resource efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and, in the future, models must be able to examine multiple factors affecting living marine resources such as interactions between: i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification, ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication, iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and/or iv) (over-)exploitation by fisheries. Statistical (correlative) approaches can be used to detect historical patterns which may not be relevant in the future. Advancing predictive capacity of changes in distribution and productivity of living marine resources requires explicit modelling of biological and physical mechanisms. New formulations are needed which (depending on the question) will need to strive for more realism in ecophysiology and behaviour of individuals, life history strategies of species, as well as trophodynamic interactions occurring at different spatial scales. Coupling existing models (e.g. physical, biological, economic) is one avenue that has proven successful. However, fundamental advancements are needed to address key issues such as the adaptive capacity of species/groups and ecosystems. The continued development of end-to-end models (e.g., physics to fish to human sectors) will be critical if we hope to assess how multiple pressures may interact to cause changes in living marine resources including the ecological and economic costs and trade-offs of different spatial management strategies. Given the strengths and weaknesses of the various types of models reviewed here, confidence in projections of changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources will be increased by assessing model structural uncertainty through biological ensemble modelling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Targets and limits for long-term management are used in fisheries advice to operationalize the way management reflects societal priorities on ecological, economic, social and institutional aspects. This study reflects on the available published literature as well as new research presented at the international ICES/Myfish symposium on targets and limits for long term fisheries management. We examine the inclusion of ecological, economic, social and institutional objectives in fisheries management, with the aim of progressing towards including all four objectives when setting management targets or limits, or both, for multispecies fisheries. The topics covered include ecological, economic, social and governance objectives in fisheries management, consistent approaches to management, uncertainty and variability, and fisheries governance. We end by identifying ten ways to more effectively include multiple objectives in setting targets and limits in ecosystem based fisheries management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Achieving single species maximum sustainable yield (MSY) in complex and dynamic fisheries targeting multiple species (mixed fisheries) is challenging because achieving the objective for one species may mean missing the objective for another. The North Sea mixed fisheries are a representative example of an issue that is generic across most demersal fisheries worldwide, with the diversity of species and fisheries inducing numerous biological and technical interactions. Building on a rich knowledge base for the understanding and quantification of these interactions, new approaches have emerged. Recent paths towards operationalizing MSY at the regional scale have suggested the expansion of the concept into a desirable area of "pretty good yield", implemented through a range around FMSY that would allow for more flexibility in management targets. This article investigates the potential of FMSY ranges to combine long-term single-stock targets with flexible, short-term, mixed-fisheries management requirements applied to the main North Sea demersal stocks. It is shown that sustained fishing at the upper bound of the range may lead to unacceptable risks when technical interactions occur. An objective method is suggested that provides an optimal set of fishing mortality within the range, minimizing the risk of total allowable catch mismatches among stocks captured within mixed fisheries, and addressing explicitly the trade-offs between the most and least productive stocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pretty good yield (PGY) is a sustainable fish yield corresponding to obtaining no less than a specified large percentage of the maximum sustainable yield (MSY). We investigated 19 European fish stocks to test the hypothesis that the 95% PGY yield range is inherently precautionary with respect to impairing recruitment. An FMSY range was calculated for each stock as the range of fishing mortalities (F) that lead to an average catch of at least 95% of MSY in long-term simulations. Further, a precautionary reference point for each stock (FP.05) was defined as the F resulting in a 5% probability of the spawning-stock biomass falling below an agreed biomass limit below which recruitment is impaired (Blim) in long-term simulations. For the majority of the stocks analysed, the upper bound of the FMSY range exceeded the estimated FP.05. However, larger fish species had higher precautionary limits to fishing mortality, and species with larger asymptotic length were less likely to have FMSY ranges impairing recruitment. Our study shows that fishing at FMSY generally is precautionary with respect to impairing recruitment for highly exploited teleost species in northern European waters, whereas the upper part of the range providing 95% of MSY is not necessarily precautionary for small- and medium-sized teleosts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is growing interest in bioeconomic models as tools for understanding pathways of fishery behaviour in order to assess the impact of alternative policies on natural resources. A model system is presented that combines stochastic age-structured population dynamics with complex fisheries economics. Explicitly, the economic response of fleet segments to changes in stock development is analysed by applying observed values and stochastic recruitment. The optimization of net profits determines the fishing effort and the investment and disinvestment behaviour of fleet segments, which, in turn, affect the level of catch rates and discards. This tool was applied to the North Sea saithe fishery, where ICES re-evaluated the existing EU–Norway management plan, focusing on biological reference points only. Two scenarios were tested with alternative harvest control rules and then contrasted with one unregulated scenario with no quotas and driven by optimizing the net profit of the whole fleet. The model showed the success of both harvest control rules in rebuilding the stock and the associated costs to the fleets in terms of maximal 21% reduction in net profits, 21% reduction in crew wages and 11% reduction in fleet size in the midterm (2007–2015). In the long term (2022), successful stock recovery coincided with net profits almost equalling that of the unrestricted fishery. The model is highly sensitive to the parameter values but can be used strategically, providing a qualitative understanding of the anticipated relative changes. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

• Novel approach combining species distribution models (SDMs) with Ecospace. • Performance of presence/absence- vs. abundance-based (Hurdle) SDMs are evaluated. • Presence/absence SDMs perform better than abundance-based (Hurdle) SDMs. • Results highlight how spatial distributions can drive trophic interactions. One of the most applied tools to create ecosystem models to support management decisions in the light of ecosystem-based fisheries management is Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE). Recently, its spatial routine Ecospace has evolved due to the addition of the Habitat Foraging Capacity Model (HFCM), a spatial-temporal dynamic niche model to drive the foraging capacity to distribute biomass over model grid cells. The HFCM allows for continuous implementation of externally derived habitat preference maps based on single species distribution models. So far, guidelines are lacking on how to best define habitat preferences for inclusion in process-oriented trophic modeling studies. As one of the first studies, we applied the newest Ecospace development to an existing EwE model of the southern North Sea with the aim to identify which definition of habitat preference leads to the best model fit. Another key aim of our study was to test for the sensitivity of implementing externally derived habitat preference maps within Ecospace to different time-scales (seasonal, yearly, multi-year, and static). For this purpose, generalized additive models (GAM) were fit to scientific survey data using either presence/absence or abundance as differing criteria of habitat preference. Our results show that Ecospace runs using habitat preference maps based on presence/absence data compared best to empirical data. The optimal time-scale for habitat updating differed for biomass and catch, but implementing variable habitats was generally superior to a static habitat representation. Our study hence highlights the importance of a sigmoidal representation of habitat (e.g. presence/absence) and variable habitat preferences (e.g. multi-year) when combining species distribution models with an ecosystem model. It demonstrates that the interpretation of habitat preference can have a major influence on the model fit and outcome. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]