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Abstract Mental health issues have increased substantially since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, health policymakers do not have adequate data and tools to predict mental health demand, especially amid a crisis. Using time-series data collected in Singapore, this study examines if and how algorithmically measured emotion indicators from Twitter posts can help forecast emergency mental health needs. We measured the mental health needs during 549 days from 1 July 2020 to 31 December 2021 using the public’s daily visits to the emergency room of the country’s largest psychiatric hospital and the number of users with “crisis” state assessed through a government-initiated online mental health self-help portal. Pairwise Granger-causality tests covering lag length from 1 day to 5 days indicated that forecast models using Twitter joy, anger and sadness emotions as predictors perform significantly better than baseline models using past mental health needs data alone (e.g., Joy Intensity on IMH Visits, χ2 = 14·9, P < ·001***; Sadness Count on Mindline Crisis, χ2 = 4·6, P = ·031*, with a one-day lag length). The findings highlight the potential of new early indicators for tracking emerging public mental health needs.

Abstract Vaccination against COVID-19 was integral to controlling the pandemic that persisted with the continuous emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants. Using a mathematical model describing SARS-CoV-2 within-host infection dynamics, we estimate differences in virus and immunity due to factors of infecting variant, age, and vaccination history (vaccination brand, number of doses and time since vaccination). We fit our model in a Bayesian framework to upper respiratory tract viral load measurements obtained from cases of Delta and Omicron infections in Singapore, of whom the majority only had one nasopharyngeal swab measurement. With this dataset, we are able to recreate similar trends in URT virus dynamics observed in past within-host modelling studies fitted to longitudinal patient data. We found that Omicron had higher R0,within values than Delta, indicating greater initial cell-to-cell spread of infection within the host. Moreover, heterogeneities in infection dynamics across patient subgroups could be recreated by fitting immunity-related parameters as vaccination history-specific, with or without age modification. Our model results are consistent with the notion of immunosenescence in SARS-CoV-2 infection in elderly individuals, and the issue of waning immunity with increased time since last vaccination. Lastly, vaccination was not found to subdue virus dynamics in Omicron infections as well as it had for Delta infections. This study provides insight into the influence of vaccine-elicited immunity on SARS-CoV-2 within-host dynamics, and the interplay between age and vaccination history. Furthermore, it demonstrates the need to disentangle host factors and changes in pathogen to discern factors influencing virus dynamics. Finally, this work demonstrates a way forward in the study of within-host virus dynamics, by use of viral load datasets including a large number of patients without repeated measurements.

Abstract Unpredictable emergency department (ED) admissions challenge healthcare systems, causing resource allocation inefficiencies. This study analyses associations between air pollutants, meteorological factors, and 2,655,861 cause‐specific ED admissions from 2014 to 2018 across 12 categories. Generalized additive models were used to assess non‐linear associations for each exposure, yielding Incidence Rate Ratios (IRR), while the population attributable fraction (PAF) calculated each exposure's contribution to cause‐specific ED admissions. IRRs revealed increased risks of ED admissions for respiratory infections (IRR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.01–1.11) and infectious and parasitic diseases (IRR: 1.09, 95% CI: 1.03–1.15) during increased rainfall (13.21–16.97 mm). Wind speeds >12.73 km/hr corresponded to increased risks of ED admissions for respiratory infections (IRR: 1.12, 95% CI: 1.03–1.21) and oral diseases (IRR: 1.58, 95% CI: 1.31–1.91). Higher concentrations of air pollutants were associated with elevated risks of cardiovascular disease (IRR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.05–1.27 for PM10) and respiratory infection‐related ED admissions (IRR: 2.78, 95% CI: 1.69–4.56 for CO). Wind speeds >12.5 km/hr were predicted to contribute toward 10% of respiratory infection ED admissions, while mean temperatures >28°C corresponded to increases in the PAF up to 5% for genitourinary disorders and digestive diseases. PM10 concentrations >60 μg/m3 were highly attributable toward cardiovascular disease (PAF: 10%), digestive disease (PAF: 15%) and musculoskeletal disease (PAF: 10%) ED admissions. CO concentrations >0.6 ppm were highly attributable to respiratory infections (PAF: 20%) and diabetes mellitus (PAF: 20%) ED admissions. This study underscores protective effects of meteorological variables and deleterious impacts of air pollutant exposures across the ED admission categories considered.

Background: Cognitive impairment (CI) raises risks for unplanned healthcare utilisation and expenditures and for premature mortality. It may also reduce risks for planned expenditures. Therefore, the net cost implications for those with CI remain unknown. Method: We examined differences in healthcare utilisation and cost between those with and without CI. Using administrative healthcare utilisation and cost data linked to the Singapore Chinese Health Study cohort, we estimated regression-adjusted differences in annual healthcare utilisation and costs by CI status determined by modified Mini-Mental State Exam. Estimates were stratified by ex ante mortality risk constructed from out-of-sample Cox model predictions applied to the full sample, with a separate analysis restricted to decedents. These estimates were used to project differential healthcare costs by CI status over 5 years. Results: Patients with CI had 17% higher annual cost compared to those without CI (SGD4870 versus SGD4177, P

Abstract Since the start of the pandemic, many national responses, such as nationwide lockdowns, have been implemented to curb the spread of COVID-19. We aim to assess the impact of Singapore’s national responses on primary care utilisation. We performed an interrupted time series using acute and chronic primary care data of 3 168 578 visits between 1 September 2019 and 31 August 2020 over four periods: before any measures were put in place, during Disease Outbreak Response System Condition (DORSCON) Orange, when Circuit Breaker was instituted, and when Circuit Breaker was lifted. We found significant mean reductions in acute and chronic primary care visits immediately following DORSCON Orange and Circuit Breaker. DORSCON Orange was associated with − 2020 mean daily visits (95% CI − 2890 to − 1150). Circuit Breaker was associated with a further − 2510 mean daily visits (95% CI − 3660 to − 1360). Primary care utilisation for acute visits remained below baseline levels even after the Circuit Breaker was lifted. These significant reductions were observed in both acute and chronic visits, with acute visits experiencing a steeper drop during DORSCON Orange. Understanding the impact of COVID-19 measures on primary care utilisation will be useful for future public health planning.

Studies have repeatedly demonstrated the real-world effectiveness of oral antivirals (OAVs) in preventing hospitalisation and death in patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 at high risk for progression to severe COVID-19 when initiated within 5 days of symptom onset, even during waves of Omicron transmission.1 However, there is a need to determine if OAVs are reaching recommended groups, particularly among older adults and socioeconomically disadvantaged groups at higher risk of severe COVID-19. Disparities in access to OAVs based on area-level socioeconomic status (SES) have been documented in the US, UK and Australia,2-4 with substantially lower dispensing rates reported from more deprived areas. However, to the best of our knowledge, no studies have evaluated disparities in OAV access among urbanised Asian populations, including Singapore.

The ISARIC 4C Mortality score was developed to predict mortality risk among patients with COVID-19. Its performance among vaccinated individuals is understudied. This is a retrospective study of all patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection admitted to the National Centre for Infectious Diseases, Singapore, from January-2020 to December-2021. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were extracted, and multiple logistic regression (MLR) models were developed to predict the relationship between ISARIC score, vaccination status, anti-S antibody titre, and severe COVID-19. A total of 6377 patients were identified, of which 5329 met the study eligibility criteria. The median age of the patients was 47 years (IQR 35–71), 1264 (23.7%) were female, and 1239 (25.7%) were vaccinated. Severe disease occurred in 499 (9.4%) patients, including 133 (2.5%) deaths. After stratification, 3.0% of patients with low (0–4), 17.8% of patients with moderate (5–9), and 36.2% of patients with high (≥10) ISARIC scores developed severe COVID-19. Vaccination was associated with a reduced risk of progression to severe COVID-19 in the MLR model: aOR 0.88 (95% CI: 0.86–0.90), and the risk of severe COVID-19 decreased inversely to anti-S antibody titres. The anti-S antibody titre should be further investigated as an adjunct to the ISARIC score to triage COVID-19 patients for hospital admission and antiviral therapy.

Summary: Background: During pandemics, avoiding time delay in diagnosing infection is crucial. We evaluated factors associated with delayed diagnosis of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in a national cohort of adult Singaporeans, during which emergence of the more transmissible Omicron variant shifted pandemic management towards endemicity. Methods: Retrospective cross-sectional study amongst all adult Singaporeans diagnosed with symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection during the transition from Delta to Omicron BA.1 (September 2021–February 2022). SARS-CoV-2 testing was fully subsidised and compulsory for all symptomatic individuals presenting at primary care. Results and demographic information were extracted from national databases. Time to diagnosis was defined as days from symptom-onset to diagnosis (date of first positive SARS-CoV-2 test); dichotomising into no delay (≤24 h from symptom-onset) and delay >24 h. Multivariable logistic regression was utilised to assess factors associated with delay >24 h, and association of delay >24 h with progression to severe COVID-19. Findings: Of 149,063 Singaporean adults presenting with symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, 75.9% (113,195/149,063) were diagnosed within 24 h of symptom-onset. On multivariable analysis, female gender, older age (>60 years), Chinese (vs. Malay) ethnicity, socioeconomic status (housing type), primary care characteristics, presentation during Omicron BA.1 (vs. Delta), symptom-onset on Friday/Saturday (vs. Monday), and not having completed a primary vaccination series were independently associated with higher odds of delay >24 h. Delay >24 h was independently associated with severe COVID-19 (adjusted odds-ratio, aOR = 1.45, 95% CI = 1.27–1.65, p 60 years) had higher odds of delay in diagnosis. Delay >24 h in diagnosis was independently associated with severe COVID-19. Funding: This study was not grant-funded.

Introduction Though hip fractures are associated with significant mortality and morbidity, increasing life expectancy in developed countries necessitates an analysis of mortality trends and factors predicting long term survival. The aim of this study is to identify the predictors of 10-year mortality as well as assess the correlation of Age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index (ACCI) with 10-year mortality in a surgically treated Asian geriatric hip fracture population. Materials and Methods From January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2009, 766 patients who underwent surgery for hip fracture with a minimum follow up of 10-years were recruited to the study (92% follow-up rate). A review of the patient’s electronic hospital records was performed to glean the following data: patient demographics, pre-existing comorbidities, operation duration, length of stay, fracture configuration, as well as mortality data up to 10 years. CCI scores and individual co-morbidities were correlated with inpatient, 30-day, 1-year, 5-year and beyond 10-year mortality. Results Of the 766 patients, the mortality rate for 30-day, 1-year, 5-year and 10-years was 2.9%, 12.0%, 38.9% and 61.6% respectively. The average ACCI was 5.31. The 10-year mortality for patients with ACCI ≤ 3, ACCI 4-5 and ACCI ≥ 6 are 29.4%, 57.4% and 77.5% respectively. End-Stage-Renal Failure (ESRF), liver failure and COPD were dominant predictors of mortality at 10 years, whereas cancer was the predominant predictor at 1 year. Discussion ACCI significantly correlates with the 10-year mortality after surgically treated hip fractures with a shift of the dominant predictors from cancer to ESRF and COPD. This could inform future health policy and resource planning. This data also represents recently available pre-pandemic survival trends after hip fracture surgery and serves as a baseline for post-pandemic outcome surveillance of interventions for fragility fractures. Conclusion This study demonstrates that ACCI correlated with 10-year mortality after surgical treatment of hip fractures.

Objective To estimate the ‘cost of illness’ arising from chronic wounds in Singapore.Design Incidence-based cost of illness study using evidence from a range of sources.Setting Singapore health services.Participants We consider 3.49 million Singapore citizens and permanent residents. There are 16 752 new individuals with a chronic wound in 2017, with 598 venous ulcers, 2206 arterial insufficiency ulcers, 6680 diabetic ulcers and 7268 pressure injuries.Primary outcome measures expressed in monetary terms are the value of all hospital bed days lost for the population; monetary value of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost in the population; costs of all outpatient visits; and costs of all poly clinic, use of Community Health Assist Scheme (CHAS) and emergency departments (EDs) visits. Intermediate outcomes that inform the primary outcomes are also estimated.Results Total annual cost of illness was $350 million (range $72–$1779 million). With 168 503 acute bed days taken up annually (range 141 966–196 032) that incurred costs of $139 million (range 117–161 million). Total costs to health services were $184 million (range $120–$1179 million). Total annual costs of lost health outcomes were 2077 QALYs (range −2657 to 29 029) valued at $166 million (range −212 to 2399 million).Conclusions The costs of chronic wounds are large to Singapore. Costs can be reduced by making positive investments for comprehensive wound prevention and treatment programmes.

As one of the most common eye conditions being presented at clinics, acute conjunctivitis puts substantial strain on primary health resources. To reduce this public health burden, it is important to forecast and provide forward guidance to policymakers by estimating conjunctivitis trends, taking into account factors which influence transmission. Using a high-dimensional set of ambient air pollution and meteorological data, this study describes new approaches to point and probabilistic forecasting of conjunctivitis burden which can be readily translated to other infectious diseases. Over the period of 2012 – 2022, we show that simple models without environmental data provided better point forecasts but the more complex models which optimized predictive accuracy and combined multiple predictors demonstrated superior density forecast performance. These results were shown to be consistent over periods with and without structural breaks in transmission. Furthermore, ecological analysis using post-selection inference showed that increases in SO2, O3 surface concentration and total precipitation were associated to increased conjunctivitis attendance. The methods proposed can provide rich and informative forward guidance for outbreak preparedness and help guide healthcare resource planning in both stable periods of transmission and periods where structural breaks in data occur.

Objective Stroke, a common illness in older adults, accounts for up to 4% of direct medical costs in developed nations. Informal caregiving contributing a significant proportion of economic burden post-stroke warrants a deeper understanding of the caregiving context to sustain caregiving arrangement. While literature exists describing differences in motivation and preferences of caregivers, limited literature explores differences in caregiving experiences of different types of caregivers (ie, spouse, adult-child, sibling or others). Addressing this gap, our study aimed to explore the caregiving experience of stroke survivors and their family caregivers across different caregiver identities in an Asian setting.Design Qualitative descriptive study.Setting Community setting.Participants We conducted semi-structured interviews with 26 stroke survivors and 35 caregivers purposively sampled from an outpatient rehabilitation setting, an outpatient clinic and a support organisation. Data were analysed using thematic analysis.Outcome measures Themes including caregiving experience of stroke survivors and their family caregivers across different caregiver identities.Results Following five themes were reported: caregiver reserve, coping strategies, caregiver burden, competing commitments and role of foreign domestic worker (FDW) in family caregiving. Spouse caregivers were less willing to ask for help, commonly adopted faith-based, and spacing or recharging types of coping, reported emotional strain and shared limited accounts of FDWs. Adult-child caregivers were more willing to ask for help, engaged in alternative care arrangements involving FDWs, commonly adopted action-focussed coping and reported multidimensional caregiver burden.Conclusion Our findings illustrated the heterogeneity in factors affecting caregiving experience across spouse and adult-child caregivers. Practical implications include conducting a needs assessment for caregiver-stroke survivor dyads and providing tailored support, training and information to help caregivers cope better.

Asia is home to the most rapidly aging populations in the world. This study focuses on two countries in Asia that are advanced in terms of their demographic transition: the Republic of Korea and Singapore. We developed a demographic and economic state-transition microsimulation model based on the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging and the Singapore Chinese Health Study. The model was employed to compare projections of functional status and disability among future cohorts of older adults, including disparities in disability prevalence by educational attainment. The model also projects increasing disparities in the prevalence of activities-of-daily-living disability and other chronic diseases between those with low and high educational attainment. Despite overall increases in educational attainment, all elderly, including those with a college degree, experience an increased burden of functional disability and chronic diseases because of survival to older ages. These increases have significant economic and social implications, including increased medical and long-term care expenditures, and an increased caregiver burden.

Abstract Background It is pertinent to focus on chronic medical condition (CMC) comorbidity with mental health conditions (MHC) as their co-occurrence has significant cost and health implications. However, current evidence on co-occurrence of MHC with CMC is mixed and mostly from Western settings. Therefore, our study aimed to (i) describe the association between MHC and total healthcare expenditure, (ii) examine the association between CMC and total healthcare expenditure and (iii) examine determinants of total and different types of healthcare expenditure in respondents with and without MHC in an Asian setting. Methods The data from Singapore Mental Health Study (SMHS) 2016, a nationwide epidemiological survey, were linked with the National claims record (from 2017 to 2019). Multivariable Generalized Linear Models (GLM) were used to examine the association between MHC and total and different types of healthcare expenditure. Results A total of 3077 survey respondents were included in current analysis. Respondents with MHC had a lower mean age of 38.6 years as compared to those without MHC (47.1 years). MHC was associated with increased total healthcare expenditure after adjusting for covariates (b = 0.508, p

Upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs) represent a large strain on primary health resources. To mitigate URTI transmission and public health burdens, it is important to pre-empt and provide forward guidance on URTI burden, while taking into account various facets which influence URTI transmission. This is so that appropriate public health measures can be taken to mitigate strain on primary care resources. This study describes a new approach to forecasting URTIs which can be used for national public health resource planning. Specifically, using environmental and disease data comprising more than 1000 dimensions, we developed sub-models which optimizes model explainability, in-sample model fit, predictive accuracy and combines many weaker predictors over a 2-month time horizon to generate direct, point forecasts over a 1-8 week ahead forecast horizon. Predictive performance was evaluated using rolling out-of-sample forecast assessment within both periods with/without structural breaks in transmission over the period of 2012-2022. We showed that forecast combinations of 5 other forecasting models had better and more consistent predictive performance than other modelling approaches, over periods with and without structural breaks in transmission dynamics. Furthermore, epidemiological analysis on high dimensional data was enabled using post-selection inference, to show the dynamic association between lower temperature, increases in past relative humidity and absolute humidity and increased URTIs attendance. The methods proposed can be used for outbreak preparedness and guide healthcare resource planning, in both stable periods of transmission and periods where structural breaks in data occur.

Abstract Background Among older adults, living alone is often associated with higher risk of Emergency Department (ED) admissions. However, older adults living alone are very heterogeneous in terms of health. As more older adults choose to live independently, it remains unclear if the association between living alone and ED admissions is moderated by health status. We studied the association between living alone and ED admission outcomes (number of admissions, inpatient days and inpatient costs) among older adults with and without multimorbidity. Methods We used data from 16,785 individuals of the third follow-up of the Singapore Chinese Health Study, a population-based cohort of older Singapore Chinese (mean age: 73(61-96) years). Participants were interviewed face-to-face from 2014 to 2016 for sociodemographic/health factors and followed-up for one year on ED admission outcomes using Singapore Ministry of Health’s Mediclaim Database. We first applied multivariable logistic regression and two-part models to test if living alone is a risk factor for ED admission outcomes. We then ran stratified and joint effect analysis to examine if the associations between living alone and ED admission outcomes were moderated by multimorbidity. Results Compared to living with others, living alone was associated with higher odds of ED admission [Odds Ratio (OR) 1.28, 95 % Confidence Interval(CI) 1.08-1.51)], longer inpatient days (+0.61, 95 %CI 0.25-0.97) and higher inpatient costs (+322 USD, 95 %CI 54-591). The interaction effects of living arrangement and multimorbidity on ED admissions and inpatient costs were not statistically different, whereas the interaction between living arrangements and multimorbidity on inpatient days was borderline significant (p-value for interaction=0.050). Compared to those living with others and without multimorbidity, the relative mean increase was 1.13 inpatient days (95 %CI 0.39-1.86) for those living alone without multimorbidity, and 0.73 inpatient days ( 95 %CI 0.29-1.17) for those living alone with multimorbidity. Conclusions Older adults living alone were at higher risk of ED admission and higher inpatient costs regardless of multimorbidity, while those living alone without multimorbidity had the longest average inpatient days. To enable aging in place while avoiding ED admissions, interventions could provide instrumental support and regular health monitoring to older adults living alone, regardless of their health status.

Abstract Aim Exploration of the healthcare journey post-stroke is incomplete without acknowledging the crucial role of family caregivers. With limited literature documenting the role of caregivers in the healthcare journey post-stroke, we aimed to describe the healthcare experiences of family caregivers and stroke survivors across different caregiver identities in Singapore. Methods We conducted a qualitative descriptive study involving semi-structured interviews with transcripts analysed using thematic analysis. 26 stroke survivors and 35 family caregivers purposively sampled from multiple settings. Results Findings were summarized into seeking care and experience of healthcare encounters. Seeking care comprised of the following themes: factors influencing seeking care, decision to seek care and role of caregiver in seeking care. Experience of healthcare encounters comprised of the following themes: service around the patient, service with care and role of caregiver in healthcare encounters. Conclusion Multi-dimensional role of caregivers in healthcare experience emerged as a major finding. Unique to our Asian context, as per the participants’ accounts, family caregivers seemed to be central in healthcare decision-making for stroke survivors, with adult-child caregivers commonly reported being engaged in collaborative decision-making. While spousal caregivers preferred a relational healthcare experience, adult-child caregivers preferred a transactional one. Practical implications include equipping caregivers with skillset to make healthcare decisions, provision of supportive decision-making environment for caregivers and reinforcing communication aspects in the medical, nursing and allied healthcare curriculum to improve healthcare experience.

Abstract Background Caregiving is a global phenomenon which is bound to increase in tandem with the aging population worldwide. Stroke is a condition common in older people that requires complex caregiving necessitating provision of adequate support to the caregivers. Past literature consists of limited accounts of types and organization of support arrangements needed by different caregivers. We aimed to describe the support system of caregivers of stroke survivors in Singapore, highlighting differences across the different caregiver identities (i.e. spouse, adult-child, etc.). Methods We conducted a qualitative descriptive study in the community setting involving 61 purposively sampled and recruited stroke survivors and caregivers. Semi-structured interviews were conducted, and transcripts were analysed using thematic analysis. Results Our findings were summarized across the following 4 themes: 1) cultural influence and caregiving; 2) caregiver support system with the following sub-themes: 2.1) dyadic caregiver support type, 2.2) extended caregiver support type, 2.3.) distributed caregiver support type and 2.4) empowering caregiver support type; 3) breaks in care of stroke survivor and 4) complex relationship dynamics. We operationalized the caregiver support system as comprising of type, people and activities that enable the caregiver to participate in caregiving activities sustainably. While spouse caregivers preferred dyadic and extended support systems positioning themselves in a more central caregiving role, adult-child caregivers preferred distributed support system involving family members with paid caregivers playing a more central role. Conclusions Our findings highlight caregiver identity as a surrogate for the differences in the caregiver support systems. Practical implications include imparting relationship-building skills to the stroke survivor-caregiver dyads to sustain dyadic support system and educating clinicians to include differences in caregiving arrangements of stroke survivors in practising family-centred care.

Abstract Background There is limited evidence of mapping clinical instruments to a generic preference-based instrument in Asian patient populations. The current study aims to map the eight-item Patient Health Questionnaire depression scale (PHQ-8) onto the EuroQol Five-Dimension (EQ-5D), the Health Utilities Index Mark 3 (HUI3) and the Short Form Six-Dimension (SF-6D) which helps to inform future cost-utility analyses of treatments for depression. Methods A total of 249 participants who had completed PHQ-8, EQ-5D, SF-6D and HUI3 questionnaires were included in the analyses. A beta regression mixture model was used to map the utility scores as a function of PHQ-8 total scores, PHQ-squared, age and gender. The predictive accuracy of the models was examined using mean absolute error and root mean square error. Results The results were compared against two common regression methods including Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Tobit regression models. The mean age of the sample was 36.2 years (SD = 11.1). The mean EQ-5D-3L, EQ-5D-5L, HUI3 and SF-6D utility scores were 0.615, 0.709, 0.461 and 0.607, respectively. The EQ-5D-3L, EQ-5D-5L and SF-6D utility scores were best predicted by the beta mixture regression model consisting of PHQ-8 total sores, PHQ-squared, and covariates including age and gender. The HUI3 was best predicted by the OLS regression model. Conclusions The current study provides important evidence to clinicians and researchers about the mapping algorithms that can be used in economic evaluation among patients with depression.

Abstract Background Outpatient medical follow-up post-stroke is not only crucial for secondary prevention but is also associated with a reduced risk of rehospitalization. However, being voluntary and non-urgent, it is potentially determined by both healthcare needs and the socio-demographic context of stroke survivor-caregiver dyads. Therefore, we aimed to examine the role of caregiver factors in outpatient medical follow-up (primary care (PC) and specialist outpatient care (SOC)) post-stroke. Method Stroke survivors and caregivers from the Singapore Stroke Study, a prospective, yearlong, observational study, contributed to the study sample. Participants were interviewed 3-monthly for data collection. Counts of PC and SOC visits were extracted from the National Claims Database. Poisson modelling was used to explore the association of caregiver (and patient) factors with PC/SOC visits over 0–3 months (early) and 4–12 months (late) post-stroke. Results For the current analysis, 256 stroke survivors and caregivers were included. While caregiver-reported memory problems of a stroke survivor (IRR: 0.954; 95% CI: 0.919, 0.990) and caregiver burden (IRR: 0.976; 95% CI: 0.959, 0.993) were significantly associated with lower early post-stroke PC visits, co-residing caregiver (IRR: 1.576; 95% CI: 1.040, 2.389) and negative care management strategies (IRR: 1.033; 95% CI: 1.005, 1.061) were significantly associated with higher late post-stroke SOC visits. Conclusion We demonstrated that the association of caregiver factors with outpatient medical follow-up varied by the type of service (i.e., PC versus SOC) and temporally. Our results support family-centred care provision by family physicians viewing caregivers not only as facilitators of care in the community but also as active members of the care team and as clients requiring care and regular assessments.

The Retirement and Health Study (RHS) is Singapore’s largest nationally representative cohort with over 15,000 participants (aged 45-85 years) followed across five timepoints in 10 years (2014-2024). Accounting for sample weights, the sample represents 1.2 million Singaporeans and permanent residents of a total population of 5.5 million. The RHS sought consent to link survey responses to relevant administrative data, enabling the cross-validation of self-reports with national databases. There are 10 sections in the RHS with over 400 questions, 50% of which are on respondents’ physical and mental health, healthcare utilization and insurance; the remaining 50% are about employment history, retirement adequacy, wealth, and household expenditure. The RHS was set up to provide microdata to compliment administrative data for whole-of-government policy making given that Singapore will reach super-aged status by 2026. Sample findings include a need for older adults to balance between immediate financial needs and investments regarding their pension funds. Also, 86% of older adults preferred to transit into partial retirement by reducing workloads. On the health front, existing studies utilising the RHS have revealed latent classes of disabilities, and that intentions to seek employment can mitigate disability developments. Another study reported that physical disability and social isolation was projected to increase, with ethnic disparities in social functioning. Overall, the RHS will be used for evidenced-informed policy agenda setting and evaluation across domains of health, finance, retirement adequacy, social and family development.

SUMMARY: Background: Impact of the Delta variant and vaccination on SARS-CoV-2 transmission remains unclear. In Singapore, quarantine of all close contacts, including entry and exit PCR testing, provided the opportunity to determine risk of infection by the Delta variant compared to other variants, vaccine efficacy against SARS-CoV-2 acquisition, symptomatic or severe COVID-19, and risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 acquisition and symptomatic disease. Methods: This retrospective cohort study included all close contacts between September 1, 2020 and May 31, 2021. Regardless of symptoms, all were quarantined for 14 days with entry and exit PCR testing. Household contacts were defined as individuals who shared a residence with a Covid-19 index case. Secondary attack rates among household close contacts of Delta variant-infected indexes and other variant-infected indexes were derived from prevalence of diagnosed cases among contacts. Relative risk ratios and bootstrapping at the cluster level was used to determine risk of infection by the Delta variant compared to other variants and vaccine efficacy against SARS-CoV-2 acquisition, symptomatic or severe COVID-19. Logistic regression using generalized estimating equations was used to determine risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 acquisition and symptomatic disease Findings: Of 1024 household contacts linked to 301 PCR-confirmed index cases, 753 (73.5%) were linked to Delta-infected indexes and 248 (24.2%) were exposed to indexes with other variants. Household secondary attack rate among unvaccinated Delta-exposed contacts was 25.8% (95% boostrap confidence interval [BCI] 20.6–31.5%) compared with 12.9% (95%BCI 7.0–20.0%) among other variant-exposed contacts. Unvaccinated Delta-exposed contacts were more likely to be infected than those exposed to other variants (Relative risk 2.01, 95%CI 1.24–3.84). Among Delta-exposed contacts, complete vaccination had a vaccine effectiveness of 56.4% (95%BCI 32.6–75.8%) against acquisition, 64.1% (95%BCI 37.8–85.4%) against symptomatic disease and 100% against severe disease. Among Delta-exposed contacts, vaccination status (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.33, 95% robust confidence interval [RCI] 0.17–0.63) and older age of the index (aOR 1.20 per decade, 95%RCI 1.03–1.39) was associated with increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 acquisition by the contact. Vaccination status of the index was not associated with a statistically-significant difference for contact SARS-CoV-2 acquisition (aOR 0.73, 95%RCI 0.38–1.40). Interpretation: Increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 Delta acquisition compared with other variants was reduced with vaccination. Close-contacts of vaccinated Delta-infected indexes did not have statistically significant reduced risk of acquisition compared with unvaccinated Delta-infected indexes.

Background and objective Little is known about the epidemiology and cost of bronchiectasis in Asia. This study describes the disease burden of bronchiectasis in Singapore. Methods A nationwide administrative dataset was used to identify hospitalisations with bronchiectasis as a diagnosis. Population statistics and medical encounter data were used to estimate the incidence, mortality, prevalence and direct medical costs associated with bronchiectasis requiring hospitalisation. Results There were 420 incident hospitalised bronchiectasis patients in 2017, giving an incidence rate of 10.6 per 100 000. Age-standardised incidence declined on average by 2.7% per year between 2007 and 2017. Incidence rates increased strongly with age in both men and women. Tuberculosis was a secondary diagnosis in 37.5% of incident hospitalisations in 2007, but has declined sharply since then. Patient survival was considerably lower in both men (5-year relative survival ratios (RSR) 0.63, 95% CI 0.59–0.66) and women (5-year RSR 0.75, 95% CI 0.72–0.78). The point prevalence of bronchiectasis was 147.1 per 100 000 in 2017, and increased sharply with age, with >1% of people aged ≥75 years having bronchiectasis. Total first-year costs among incident bronchiectasis patients in 2016 varied widely, with a mean±sd USD 7331±8863. Approximately 10% of the patients admitted in 2016 had total first-year costs of more than USD 14 380. Conclusion Bronchiectasis is common and imposes a substantial burden on healthcare costs and survival rates of patients in Singapore.

Objectives We aimed to evaluate the association between fibre intake and its food sources, and the risk of total knee replacement (TKR) due to severe knee osteoarthritis (KOA).Methods We used data from the Singapore Chinese Health Study, a prospective cohort study that recruited 63 257 participants aged 45–74 years from 1993 to 1998. At baseline, we assessed diet using a validated 165-item semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire, together with body mass index (BMI) and lifestyle factors. Incident TKR cases were identified via record linkage with nationwide hospital discharge database through 2017.Results There were 2816 cases of incident TKR due to severe KOA. The total fibre intake at baseline was not associated with the risk of TKR after adjustment for confounders. Among the food sources of fibre, higher intake of legumes was associated with a lower risk of TKR in a dose-dependent manner; compared with those having the lowest quartile intake, HR (95% CI) was 0.86 (0.76, 0.96) for those having the highest quartile intake (p for trend=0.004). This association was consistent after including BMI in the model and homogeneous across BMI categories. The consumption of other fibre sources, namely grain products, nuts and seeds, soy food, fruits and vegetables, was not associated with the risk of TKR.Conclusion Intake of legumes, but not total fibre, was associated with a reduced risk of TKR. Further research is needed to replicate our findings and to evaluate possible biological mechanisms that could explain the effect of dietary legumes on pathogenesis or progression of KOA.

Introduction Hip fractures are associated with a high burden of morbidity and mortality. Globally, there is wide variation in the incidence of hip fracture in people aged 50 years and older. Longitudinal and cross-geographical comparisons of health data can provide insights on aetiology, risk factors, and healthcare practices. However, systematic reviews of studies that use different methods and study periods do not permit direct comparison across geographical regions. Thus, the objective of this study is to investigate global secular trends in hip fracture incidence, mortality and use of postfracture pharmacological treatment across Asia, Oceania, North and South America, and Western and Northern Europe using a unified methodology applied to health records.Methods and analysis This retrospective cohort study will use a common protocol and an analytical common data model approach to examine incidence of hip fracture across population-based databases in different geographical regions and healthcare settings. The study period will be from 2005 to 2018 subject to data availability in study sites. Patients aged 50 years and older and hospitalised due to hip fracture during the study period will be included. The primary outcome will be expressed as the annual incidence of hip fracture. Secondary outcomes will be the pharmacological treatment rate and mortality within 12 months following initial hip fracture by year. For the primary outcome, crude and standardised incidence of hip fracture will be reported. Linear regression will be used to test for time trends in the annual incidence. For secondary outcomes, the crude mortality and standardised mortality incidence will be reported.Ethics and dissemination Each participating site will follow the relevant local ethics and regulatory frameworks for study approval. The results of the study will be submitted for peer-reviewed scientific publications and presented at scientific conferences.

The release of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes is a promising disease intervention strategy that aims to control dengue and other arboviral infections. While early field trials and modelling studies suggest promising epidemiological and entomological outcomes, the overall cost effectiveness of the technology is not well studied in a resource rich setting nor under the suppression approach that aims to suppress the wild-type mosquito population through the release of Wolbachia-infected males. We used economical and epidemiological data from 2010 to 2020 to first ascertain the economic and health costs of dengue in Singapore, a high income nation where dengue is hyper-endemic. The hypothetical cost effectiveness of a national Wolbachia suppression program was then evaluated historically from 2010 to 2020. We estimated that the average economic impact of dengue in Singapore from 2010 to 2020 in constant 2010US$ ranged from $1.014 to $2.265 Billion. Using empirically derived disability weights, we estimated a disease burden of 7,645-21,262 DALYs from 2010-2020. Under an assumed steady-state running cost of a national Wolbachia suppression program in Singapore, we conservatively estimate that Wolbachia would cost an estimated $50,453-$100,907 per DALYs averted and would lead to an estimated $329.40 Million saved in economic costs over 2010 to 2020 under 40% intervention efficacy. Wolbachia releases in Singapore are expected to be highly cost-effective and its rollout must be prioritised to reduce the onward spread of dengue.

Objectives Chronic wounds are common, costly and impair quality of life, yet epidemiological data are scarce. We aimed to estimate the incidence trend of a multiethnic Asian population.Design Retrospective cohort study.Setting Singapore’s nationwide claims database.Participants Singaporeans and permanent residents.Outcomes Patients were identified by International Classification of Disease, Ninth Revision, Australian Modification (ICD-9-AM) and ICD-10-AM codes from all admissions between 2000 and 2017, and categorised according to aetiology: venous, arterial, diabetic and pressure. Comorbidities were extracted from a national database of Charlson Comorbidity Index scores.Results Between 2000 and 2017, 124 023 wound-related claims among 86 631 patients were identified. Age-specific rate (ASR) and age-adjusted incidence rates of all wounds increased over 18 years, with greatest increases among those aged ≥80. In 2017, the median age of patients was 74 (IQR 63–84). Half were male (51%). 70% were ethnic Chinese, 15% Malay and 9% Indian. In 2017, the crude incidence rate (CIR) was 15 per 100 000 persons (95% CI 14 to 16) for venous wounds, 56 (95% CI 53 to 58) for arterial, 168 (95% CI 164 to 173) for diabetic and 183 (95% CI 179 to 188) for pressure wounds. The CIR of any chronic wound was 296 (95% CI 291 to 301). ASRs were greatest in patients aged ≥80: 92 (95% CI 74 to 112) for venous, 478 (95% CI 436 to 522) for arterial, 1791 (95% CI 1710 to 1876) for diabetic, 3647 (95% CI 3530 to 3766) for pressure and 4277 (95% CI 4151 to 4407) for any wound. Compared with the Chinese, Indians had thrice the ASRs of venous and arterial wounds and double the ASR of diabetic wounds. Malays had double the ASRs of arterial and diabetic wounds.Conclusions Chronic wounds are common in the elderly with significant ethnic disparities in this Asian cohort. With the incidence expected to rise with ageing populations, it is crucial to address health disparities and evaluate utilisation and cost to inform clinical practice and health policy.

BackgroundFactors associated with place of death inform policies with respect to allocating end-of-life care resources and tailoring supportive measures.ObjectiveTo determine factors associated with non-hospital deaths among cancer patients.DesignRetrospective cohort study of cancer decedents, examining factors associated with non-hospital deaths using multinomial logistic regression with hospital deaths as the reference category.Setting/subjectsCancer patients (n = 15254) in Singapore who died during the study period from January 1, 2012 till December 31, 2105 at home, acute hospital, long-term care (LTC) or hospice were included.ResultsIncreasing age (categories ≥65 years: RRR 1.25-2.61), female (RRR 1.40; 95% CI 1.28-1.52), Malays (RRR 1.67; 95% CI 1.47-1.89), Brain malignancy (RRR 1.92; 95% CI 1.15-3.23), metastatic disease (RRR 1.33-2.01) and home palliative care (RRR 2.11; 95% CI 1.95-2.29) were associated with higher risk of home deaths. Patients with low socioeconomic status were more likely to have hospice or LTC deaths: those living in smaller housing types had higher risk of dying in hospice (1-4 rooms apartment: RRR 1.13-3.17) or LTC (1-5 rooms apartment: RRR 1.36-4.11); and those with Medifund usage had higher risk of dying in LTC (RRR 1.74; 95% CI 1.36-2.21). Patients with haematological malignancies had increased risk of dying in hospital (categories of haematological subtypes: RRR 0.06-0.87).ConclusionsWe found key sociodemographic and clinical factors associated with non-hospital deaths in cancer patients. More can be done to enable patients to die in the community and with dignity rather than in a hospital.

Abstract Background It is essential to study post-stroke healthcare utilization trajectories from a stroke patient caregiver dyadic perspective to improve healthcare delivery, practices and eventually improve long-term outcomes for stroke patients. However, literature addressing this area is currently limited. Addressing this gap, our study described the trajectory of healthcare service utilization by stroke patients and associated costs over 1-year post-stroke and examined the association with caregiver identity and clinical stroke factors. Methods Patient and caregiver variables were obtained from a prospective cohort, while healthcare data was obtained from the national claims database. Generalized estimating equation approach was used to get the population average estimates of healthcare utilization and cost trend across 4 quarters post-stroke. Results Five hundred ninety-two stroke patient and caregiver dyads were available for current analysis. The highest utilization occurred in the first quarter post-stroke across all service types and decreased with time. The incidence rate ratio (IRR) of hospitalization decreased by 51, 40, 11 and 1% for patients having spouse, sibling, child and others as caregivers respectively when compared with not having a caregiver (p = 0.017). Disability level modified the specialist outpatient clinic usage trajectory with increasing difference between mildly and severely disabled sub-groups across quarters. Stroke type and severity modified the primary care cost trajectory with expected cost estimates differing across second to fourth quarters for moderately-severe ischemic (IRR: 1.67, 1.74, 1.64; p = 0.003), moderately-severe non-ischemic (IRR: 1.61, 3.15, 2.44; p = 0.001) and severe non-ischemic (IRR: 2.18, 4.92, 4.77; p = 0.032) subgroups respectively, compared to first quarter. Conclusion Highlighting the quarterly variations, we reported distinct utilization trajectories across subgroups based on clinical characteristics. Caregiver availability reducing hospitalization supports revisiting caregiver’s role as potential hidden workforce, incentivizing their efforts by designing socially inclusive bundled payment models for post-acute stroke care and adopting family-centered clinical care practices.

Abstract Background Health services research aimed at understanding service use and improving resource allocation often relies on collecting subjectively reported or proxy-reported healthcare service utilization (HSU) data. It is important to know the discrepancies in such self or proxy reports, as they have significant financial and policy implications. In high-dependency populations, such as stroke survivors, with varying levels of cognitive impairment and dysphasia, caregivers are often potential sources of stroke survivors’ HSU information. Most of the work conducted on agreement analysis to date has focused on validating different sources of self-reported data, with few studies exploring the validity of caregiver-reported data. Addressing this gap, our study aimed to quantify the agreement across the caregiver-reported and national claims-based HSU of stroke patients. Methods A prospective study comprising multi-ethnic stroke patient and caregiver dyads (N = 485) in Singapore was the basis of the current analysis, which used linked national claims records. Caregiver-reported health services data were collected via face-to-face and telephone interviews, and similar health services data were extracted from the national claims records. The main outcome variable was the modified intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), which provided the level of agreement across both data sources. We further identified the amount of over- or under-reporting by caregivers across different service types. Results We observed variations in agreement for different health services, with agreement across caregiver reports and national claims records being the highest for outpatient visits (specialist and primary care), followed by hospitalizations and emergency department visits. Interestingly, caregivers over-reported hospitalizations by approximately 49% and under-reported specialist and primary care visits by approximately 20 to 30%. Conclusions The accuracy of the caregiver-reported HSU of stroke patients varies across different service types. Relatively more objective data sources, such as national claims records, should be considered as a first choice for quantifying health care usage before considering caregiver-reported usage. Caregiver-reported outpatient service use was relatively more accurate than inpatient service use over shorter recall periods. Therefore, in situations where objective data sources are limited, caregiver-reported outpatient information can be considered for low volumes of healthcare consumption, using an appropriate correction to account for potential under-reporting.

Abstract Background Cancer patients contribute significantly to emergency department (ED) utilization. The objective of this study was to identify factors associated with patients becoming ED frequent attenders (FA) after a cancer‐related hospitalization. Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted using national administrative, billing, and death records of Singapore residents discharged alive from Singapore public hospitals from January 2012 to December 2015, with a primary discharge diagnosis of cancer. Patients with four or more ED visits within any 12‐month period after discharge from their index hospitalization were classified as FA. Time to FA distribution was estimated using the Kaplan‐Meier method, and factors associated with risk of FA were identified using multivariate Cox regression analyses. Results Records for 47 235 patients were analyzed, of whom 2980 patients were FA within the study period. Age (

Abstract Background This study introduces the conceptual basis and operational measure, of BioPyschoSocial (BPS) health and related risk to better understand how well older people are managing and to screen for risk status. The BPS Risk Screener is constructed to detect vulnerability at older ages, and seeks to measure dynamic processes that place equal emphasis on Psycho-emotional and Socio-interpersonal risks, as Bio-functional ones. We validate the proposed measure and describe its application to programming. Methods We undertook a quantitative cross-sectional, psychometric study with n = 1325 older Singaporeans, aged 60 and over. We adapted the EASYCare 2010 and Lubben Social Network Scale questionnaires to help determine the BPS domains using factor analysis from which we derive the BPS Risk Screener items. We then confirm its structure, and test the scoring system. The score is initially validated against self-reported general health then modelled against: number of falls; cognitive impairment; longstanding diseases; and further tested against service utilization (linked administrative data). Results Three B, P and S clusters are defined and identified and a BPS managing score (‘doing’ well, or ‘some’, ‘many’, and ‘overwhelming problems’) calculated such that the risk of problematic additive BPS effects, what we term health ‘loads’, are accounted for. Thirty-five items (factor loadings over 0.5) clustered into three distinct B, P, S domains and were found to be independently associated with self-reported health: B: 1.99 (1.64 to 2.41), P: 1.59 (1.28 to 1.98), S: 1.33 (1.10 to 1.60). The fit improved when combined into the managing score 2.33 (1.92 to 2.83,

Introduction: Singapore is a developed country with a population of 5.6 million and an acute-centric healthcare system. While the acute hospitals deliver extensive care, patients with multiple care needs face challenges in managing their conditions post-discharge, due to various reasons, such as weak caregiver support. This phenomenon is especially evident in older and frail patients who are frequently readmitted as their condition(s) deteriorate post-discharge. Methods: In April 2017, Singapore’s Ministry of Health (MOH) launched a nationwide Hospital to Home (H2H) care model to provide holistic patient-centric care to support patients discharging from public hospitals, so that they can transit back home, and stay well in the community. H2H targets high healthcare utilizers who are frail with complex care needs. The service includes medication reconciliation, case management, care coordination, telephonic support and caregiver training. To facilitate the development and deployment of the predictive model to risk stratify and segment the patients for enrolment assessment into H2H, a workgroup consisting of clinicians and data scientists across the various public hospitals was formed. The dependent variable for the model was three or more non-elective inpatient admissions within a 1-year period. Independent variables, generated based on literature review and input from clinicians and care managers, were segmented into 3 primary categories: sociodemographic, past hospital utilization and past medical conditions. Results: The top important variable was “total LOS in the past 12 months” followed by “number of days from previous non-elective admission” which lifted the model performance significantly. The best performing machine learning algorithm has an AUC of 0.79, recall of 39%, with precision set at 70% after consultation with the H2H clinical committee to capture very high risk patients. The prediction list, generated on daily basis, is now an integrated part of patient assessment workflow. The list helps the care team to support and follow up with the high healthcare utilizers and their caregivers after discharge. As of Oct 2018, more than 23,000 patients had benefited. Conclusions: The predictive model exemplifies the benefit of augmenting prediction model with clinical assessment. By having the prediction tool act as a bigger “sieve” to do the first level of filtering and the subsequent removal of potential false positives by clinicians when they assessed the patient in-ward provides a targeted intervention with minimal clinical resources. Lessons learnt: To manage the multidisciplinary development team in this endeavour efficiently, we adopted an iterative development process that allow us to fail fast and often. To convince clinicians to shift their decision making process to be augmented with a predictive model, we engaged reputable clinicians in the H2H clinical committee and analytics teams from different public hospitals to co-develop the model. Limitations: In this discussion, we had not been able to cover in depth on areas such as comparing the predictive model performance with different set of features. Future research: Future enhancements include the use of Natural Language Processing on unstructured clinical notes to extract care-giver and non-clinical information as additional features for the prediction model.