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The management of surface and groundwater can be regarded as presenting resource dilemmas. These are situations where multiple users share a common resource pool, and make contested claims about their rights to access the resource, and the best use and distribution of the resource among competing needs. Overshadowed by uncertainties caused by limited data and lack of scientific knowledge, resource dilemmas are challenging to manage, often leading to controversies and disputes about policy issues and outcomes. In the case of surface and groundwater management, the design of collective policies needs to be informed by a holistic understanding of different water uses and outcomes under different water availability and sharing scenarios. In this paper, we present an integrated modelling framework for assessing the combined impacts of changes in climate conditions and water allocation policies on surface and groundwater-dependent economic and ecological systems. We are implementing the framework in the Namoi catchment, Australia. However, the framework can be transferred and adapted for uses, including water planning, in other agricultural catchments.

Groundwater management is a complex issue that in many instances has all the features of messy or wicked problems. These are defined by there being multiple stakeholders and decision makers with competing and conflicting goals, and where the systems of interest are complex - being social, economic, and ecological - and are subject to a range of uncertainties caused by limited data, information and knowledge. Modellers can nevertheless play a key role in resolving and providing support for framing the issues of concern, clarifying decision options for managing environmental issues, and appropriately engaging with identified stakeholders. A key policy issue in Australia is how to deal with the over-allocation of groundwater in many catchments. In this paper we present the elements of an integrated approach to support the ongoing resolution of the over-allocation problem. With a collaborative multi-disciplinary research team we have developed an integrated model to identify the social, economic and environmental trade-offs in the Namoi catchment in Australia under various water policy decisions and climate variations. The model allows the exploration of adaptation mechanisms, identified by our social science team, that water users are likely to accept in order to minimise the impacts of climate change and reductions in their water allocation.