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This study explores whether incorporating a more sophisticated representation of groundwater, and human-groundwater interactions, improves predictive capability in a large-scale water resource model. The Global Water Availability Assessment model (GWAVA) is developed to include a simple layered aquifer and associated fluxes (GWAVA-GW), and applied to the Cauvery river basin in India, a large, human-impacted basin with a high dependence on groundwater. GWAVA-GW shows good predictive skill for streamflow upstream of the Mettur dam: Kling-Gupta Efficiency ≥ 0.3 for 91% of subcatchments, and improved model skill for streamflow prediction compared to GWAVA over the majority of the basin. GWAVA-GW shows some level of predictive skill for groundwater levels over seasonal and long-term time scales, with a tendency to overestimate depth to groundwater in areas with high levels of groundwater pumping. Overall, GWAVA-GW is a useful tool when assessing water resources at a basin scale, especially in areas that rely on groundwater.

The increasing impact of anthropogenic interference on river basins has facilitated the development of the representation of human influences in large-scale models. The representation of groundwater and large reservoirs have realised significant developments recently. Groundwater and reservoir representation in the Global Water Availability Assessment (GWAVA) model have been improved, critically, with a minimal increase in model complexity and data input requirements, in keeping with the model’s applicability to regions with low-data availability. The increased functionality was assessed in two highly anthropogenically influenced basins. A revised groundwater routine was incorporated into GWAVA, which is fundamentally driven by three input parameters, and improved the simulation of streamflow and baseflow in the headwater catchments such that low-flow model skill increased 33–67% in the Cauvery and 66–100% in the Narmada. The existing reservoir routine was extended and improved the simulation of streamflow in catchments downstream of major reservoirs, using two calibratable parameters. The model performance was improved between 15% and 30% in the Cauvery and 7–30% in the Narmada, with the daily reservoir releases in the Cauvery improving significantly between 26% and 164%. The improvement of the groundwater and reservoir routines in GWAVA proved successful in improving the model performance, and the inclusions allowed for improved traceability of simulated water balance components. This study illustrates that improvement in the representation of human–water interactions in large-scale models is possible, without excessively increasing the model complexity and input data requirements.

This paper presents a comparison of the predictive capability of three hydrological models, and a mean ensemble of these models, in a heavily influenced catchment in Peninsular India: GWAVA (Global Water AVailability Assessment) model, SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) and VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) model. The performance of the three models and their ensemble were investigated in five sub-catchments in the upstream reaches of the Cauvery river catchment. Model performances for monthly streamflow simulations from 1983–2005 were analysed using Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, Kling-Gupta efficiency and percent bias. The predictive capability for each model was compared, and the ability to accurately represent key catchment hydrological processes is discussed. This highlighted the importance of an accurate spatial representation of precipitation for input into hydrological models, and that comprehensive reservoir functionality is paramount to obtaining good results in this region. The performance of the mean ensemble was analysed to determine whether the application of a multi-model ensemble approach can be useful in overcoming the uncertainties associated with individual models. It was demonstrated that the ensemble mean has a better predictive ability in catchments with reservoirs than the individual models, with Nash-Sutcliffe values between 0.49 and 0.92. Therefore, utilising multiple models could be a suitable methodology to offset uncertainty in input data and poor reservoir operation functionality within individual models.

The environment receives antibiotics through a combination of direct application (e.g., aquaculture and fruit production), as well as indirect release through pharmaceutical manufacturing, sewage and animal manure. Antibiotic concentrations in many sewage-impacted rivers are thought to be sufficient to select for antibiotic resistance genes. Yet, because antibiotics are nearly always found associated with antibiotic-resistant faecal bacteria in wastewater, it is difficult to distinguish the selective role of effluent antibiotics within a ‘sea’ of gut-derived resistance genes. Here we examine the potential for macrolide and fluoroquinolone prescribing in England to select for resistance in the River Thames catchment, England. We show that 64% and 74% of the length of the modelled catchment is chronically exposed to putative resistance-selecting concentrations (PNEC) of macrolides and fluoroquinolones, respectively. Under current macrolide usage, 115 km of the modelled River Thames catchment (8% of total length) exceeds the PNEC by 5-fold. Similarly, under current fluoroquinolone usage, 223 km of the modelled River Thames catchment (16% of total length) exceeds the PNEC by 5-fold. Our results reveal that if reduced prescribing was the sole mitigating measure, that macrolide and fluoroquinolone prescribing would need to decline by 77% and 85%, respectively, to limit resistance selection in the catchment. Significant reductions in antibiotic prescribing are feasible, but innovation in sewage-treatment will be necessary for achieving substantially-reduced antibiotic loads and inactivation of DNA-pollution from resistant bacteria. Greater confidence is needed in current risk-based targets for antibiotics, particularly in mixtures, to better inform environmental risk assessments and mitigation.

It is recognized that the amount of natural dilution available can make a significant difference in the exposure and risk assessment of chemicals that emanate from wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). However, data availability is a common limiting factor in exposure assessments for emerging markets. In the present study, we used a novel approach to derive dilution factors for the receiving waters within 5 km of wastewater discharge points in Mexico by combining locally measured river volumes, ecoregion categorization, data on WWTP capacity, and global river network models. Distributions of wastewater effluent into receiving stream dilution factors were developed for the entire country and organized by ecoregion type to explore spatial differences. The distribution of dilution factors in Mexico ranged from >1000 in tropical and temperate ecoregions to 1 in desert ecoregions. To demonstrate its utility, dilution factors were used to develop a probabilistic model to explore the potential ecological risks of the high‐volume surfactant linear alkylbenzene sulfonate (LAS), commonly used in down‐the‐drain cleaning products. The predicted LAS river exposure values were below the predicted no‐effect concentration in all regions. The methodology developed for Mexico can be used to derive refined exposure assessments in other countries with emerging markets throughout the world, resulting in more realistic risk assessments.

Nano silver and nano zinc-oxide monthly concentrations in surface waters across Europe were modeled at ~6 × 9 km spatial resolution. Nano-particle loadings from households to rivers were simulated considering household connectivity to sewerage, sewage treatment efficiency, the spatial distribution of sewage treatment plants, and their associated populations. These loadings were used to model temporally varying nano-particle concentrations in rivers, lakes and wetlands by considering dilution, downstream transport, water evaporation, water abstraction, and nano-particle sedimentation. Temporal variability in concentrations caused by weather variation was simulated using monthly weather data for a representative 31-year period. Modeled concentrations represent current levels of nano-particle production. Two scenarios were modeled. In the most likely scenario, half the river stretches had long-term average concentrations exceeding 0.002 ng/L nano silver and 1.5 ng/L nano zinc oxide. In 10% of the river stretches, these concentrations exceeded 0.18 ng/L and 150 ng/L, respectively. Predicted concentrations were usually highest in July.

Dilution factors are a critical component in estimating concentrations of so-called “down-the-drain” chemicals (e.g., pharmaceuticals) in rivers. The present study estimated the temporal and spatial variability of dilution factors around the world using geographically referenced data sets at 0.5° × 0.5° resolution. Domestic wastewater effluents were derived from national per capita domestic water use estimates and gridded population. Monthly and annual river flows were estimated by accumulating runoff estimates using topographically derived flow directions. National statistics, including the median and interquartile range, were generated to quantify dilution factors. Spatial variability of the dilution factor was found to be considerable; for example, there are 4 orders of magnitude in annual median dilution factor between Canada and Morocco. Temporal variability within a country can also be substantial; in India, there are up to 9 orders of magnitude between median monthly dilution factors. These national statistics provide a global picture of the temporal and spatial variability of dilution factors and, hence, of the potential exposure to down-the-drain chemicals. The present methodology has potential for a wide international community (including decision makers and pharmaceutical companies) to assess relative exposure to down-the-drain chemicals released by human pollution in rivers and, thus, target areas of potentially high risk. Environ Toxicol Chem 2014;33:447–452. © 2013 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial, and no modifications or adaptations are made.

The presence and potential adverse effects of plastic-polymers in the environment are receiving increasing attention in the popular and scientific press. However, quantifying emissions, exposure and effects of these materials remains a challenge. This paper describes the application of a questionnaire survey to quantify emissions of condom material from the domestic household to the sewage waste stream. Condoms are an important mainstay for birth control and the reduction of sexually transmitted infections. Survey participants were estimated to flush condoms down the toilet 2.96% of the time, and emissions were calculated as 0.99 mg of condom material per person per day. Using information on screening efficiencies at sewage treatment plants, the questionnaire data was combined with a GIS-based water quality model (LF2000-WQX) to predicted environmental concentrations (PEC) in a UK river basin catchment. Annual average PECs of condom material were 0.08–0.2 μg L−1, under the model scenario used. To put these PECs into context, rubber latex condom material was degraded in outdoor microcosms. This resulted in the formation of a complex mixture of substances including chemical degradation products and particles in the nano range. The direct effects of the degradation mixture were investigated using two freshwater organisms with different life cycle traits, the water column crustacean Daphnia magna and the sediment-dwelling larval of Chironomus riparius. Ecotoxicity tests investigated both acute and chronic endpoints and were shown to exhibit no toxic effects. This precluded the derivation of a genuine no-effect concentration. Hence, the results suggest that limited risk to invertebrates is associated with latex condom degradation products to the organisms tested. Future studies should extend this risk framework to assess risks of condoms to other taxonomic groups as well as the risks of other polymer materials.