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Introduction: Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) is an aggressive skin cancer with a poor prognosis, which only improved with the introduction of immunotherapies. An MCC prediction model with high diagnostic accuracy is lacking. The aim was to develop an MCC prognostic score (MCC-PS) based on combinations of previously proposed risk factors. Methods: A multicentric, retrospective study was conducted to develop MCCPS, which included age, neuron-specific enolase (NSE), C-reactive protein (CRP), creatinine, bilirubin, and international normalized ratio (INR). Creatinine, bilirubin, and INR were used to calculate the model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) score. A total of 98 patients were included in the study, including 36.7% with stage I according to American Joint Committee on Cancer 2018 (n = 36), 30.6% with stage II (n = 30), 25.5% with stage III (n = 25), and 7.1% with stage IV (n = 7). Survival data of MCC patients were correlated with selected laboratory parameters and risk factors. Primary endpoint was MCC-specific survival (MSS) and the secondary endpoint was progression-free survival. Several statistical methods were used to develop the prognostic score, including correlation analysis, Kaplan-Meier curves, Cox regression, and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic analysis. Results: The MCC-PS is based on the sum of the following baseline variables: elevated CRP (≥5.5 mg/l), elevated NSE (≥22.8 μg/l), MELD score ≥ 11, and age ≥ 75 years. An MELD score ≥ 11 was scored as 4 points, elevated NSE level as 3 points, elevated CRP level as 2 points, and age ≥ 75 years as 1 point. A high-risk group according to the MCC-PS was characterized by a score of 4 or more points. The high-risk group was associated with a worse prognosis than the lowrisk group (1-year MSS 62%, 2-year 43.1%, 5-year 17.6% as compared to 1-year MSS 79.5%, 3-year 75%, 5-year 72%). Notably, the developed MCC-PS predicts MCC outcome measures with high accuracy (3-year MSS: area under the curve (AUC) 0.934, sensitivity 87.5% and specificity 82.2%; 5-year MSS: AUC 0.93, sensitivity 89% and specificity 82%). Conclusion: MCC-PS is the first prognostic score predicting MCC outcome with a high accuracy based on five easily available laboratory parameters and patient's age. An MCC-PS of 4 or more indicates a high-risk patient associated with a poor prognosis. Conclusion: MCC-PS is the first prognostic score predicting MCC outcome with a high accuracy based on five easily available laboratory parameters and patient's age. An MCC-PS of 4 or more indicates a high-risk patient associated with a poor prognosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) is an aggressive skin cancer with a poor prognosis, which only improved with the introduction of immunotherapies. An MCC prediction model with high diagnostic accuracy is lacking. The aim was to develop an MCC prognostic score (MCC-PS) based on combinations of previously proposed risk factors., Methods: A multicentric, retrospective study was conducted to develop MCC-PS, which included age, neuron-specific enolase (NSE), C-reactive protein (CRP), creatinine, bilirubin, and international normalized ratio (INR). Creatinine, bilirubin, and INR were used to calculate the model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) score. A total of 98 patients were included in the study, including 36.7% with stage I according to American Joint Committee on Cancer 2018 ( n = 36), 30.6% with stage II ( n = 30), 25.5% with stage III ( n = 25), and 7.1% with stage IV ( n = 7). Survival data of MCC patients were correlated with selected laboratory parameters and risk factors. Primary endpoint was MCC-specific survival (MSS) and the secondary endpoint was progression-free survival. Several statistical methods were used to develop the prognostic score, including correlation analysis, Kaplan-Meier curves, Cox regression, and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic analysis., Results: The MCC-PS is based on the sum of the following baseline variables: elevated CRP (≥5.5 mg/l), elevated NSE (≥22.8 µg/l), MELD score ≥ 11, and age ≥ 75 years. An MELD score ≥ 11 was scored as 4 points, elevated NSE level as 3 points, elevated CRP level as 2 points, and age ≥ 75 years as 1 point. A high-risk group according to the MCC-PS was characterized by a score of 4 or more points. The high-risk group was associated with a worse prognosis than the low-risk group (1-year MSS 62%, 2-year 43.1%, 5-year 17.6% as compared to 1-year MSS 79.5%, 3-year 75%, 5-year 72%). Notably, the developed MCC-PS predicts MCC outcome measures with high accuracy (3-year MSS: area under the curve (AUC) 0.934, sensitivity 87.5% and specificity 82.2%; 5-year MSS: AUC 0.93, sensitivity 89% and specificity 82%)., Conclusion: MCC-PS is the first prognostic score predicting MCC outcome with a high accuracy based on five easily available laboratory parameters and patient's age. An MCC-PS of 4 or more indicates a high-risk patient associated with a poor prognosis., Competing Interests: JB is receiving speaker’s bureau honoraria from Amgen, Pfizer, Merck-Serono, and Sanofi and is a paid consultant/advisory board member for eTheRNA, Merck-Serono, Pfizer, 4SC, and Sanofi. His group receives research grants from BMS, Merck-Serono, and Alcedis. TG has received speakers and/or advisory board honoraria from BMS, Sanofi-Genzyme, MSD, Novartis Pharma, Roche, Abbvie, Almirall, Janssen, Lilly, Pfizer, Pierre Fabre, and Merck-Serono outside the submitted work. The remaining authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2024 Abu Rached, Becker, Lonsdorf, Keller, Zeglis and Gambichler.)