Search

A core challenge in global change biology is to predict how species will respond to future environmental change and to manage these responses. To make such predictions and management actions robust to novel futures, we need to accurately characterize how organisms experience their environments and the biological mechanisms by which they respond. All organisms are thermodynamically connected to their environments through the exchange of heat and water at fine spatial and temporal scales and this exchange can be captured with biophysical models. Although mechanistic models based on biophysical ecology have a long history of development and application, their use in global change biology remains limited despite their enormous promise and increasingly accessible software. We contend that greater understanding and training in the theory and methods of biophysical ecology is vital to expand their application. Our review shows how biophysical models can be implemented to understand and predict climate change impacts on species' behavior, phenology, survival, distribution, and abundance. It also illustrates the types of outputs that can be generated, and the data inputs required for different implementations. Examples range from simple calculations of body temperature at a particular site and time, to more complex analyses of species' distribution limits based on projected energy and water balances, accounting for behavior and phenology. We outline challenges that currently limit the widespread application of biophysical models relating to data availability, training, and the lack of common software ecosystems. We also discuss progress and future developments that could allow these models to be applied to many species across large spatial extents and timeframes. Finally, we highlight how biophysical models are uniquely suited to solve global change biology problems that involve predicting and interpreting responses to environmental variability and extremes, multiple or shifting constraints, and novel abiotic or biotic environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fur properties play a critical role in the thermoregulation of mammals and are becoming of particular interest as the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme heat events are increasing under climate change. Australian flying-foxes are known to experience mass die-offs during extreme heat events, yet little is known about how different fur properties affect their thermoregulatory needs. In this study, we examined the differences and patterns in fur properties among and within the four mainland Australian flying-fox species: Pteropus poliocephalus , P. alecto , P. conspicillatus , and P. scapulatus. Using museum specimens, we collected data on fur solar reflectance, fur length and fur depth from the four species across their distribution. We found that P. poliocephalus had significantly longer and deeper fur, and P. alecto had significantly lower fur solar reflectivity, compared with the other species. Across all species, juveniles had deeper fur than adults, and females of P. alecto and P. conspicillatus had deeper fur than males. The biophysical effects of these fur properties are complex and contingent on the degree of exposure to solar radiation, but they may help to explain the relatively higher mortality of P. alecto and of juveniles and females that is commonly observed during extreme heat events. The variation in fur properties of flying-foxes can help us understand why there are differences in survival rates among different species, sexes, and ages during extreme heat events. We found that there were distinct differences in the length, depth, and solar reflectance of fur among different species and demographics, which can cause differences in the experienced heat load. Thus, understanding exactly how interactions between fur properties affect heat transfer can help us explain the higher mortality of some species and demographics. Photo by Himali Ratnayake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Habitat modification and invasive species are among the most important contemporary drivers of biodiversity loss. These two threatening processes are often studied independently and few studies have focused on how they interact to influence species declines. Here we assess the predation pressure placed on the threatened great desert skink (Liopholis kintorei) and how this interacts with fire-induced habitat modifications. We collected daily track data of potential predators for 1 month at 30 great desert skink burrow-systems where vegetation cover varied significantly after experimental burns. We used these data to evaluate potential predation pressure at the burrow-system and assess whether fire influenced predator pressure. We supplemented this analysis by documenting predation via the inspection of large mammalian predator scats collected from great desert skink habitat. The level of feral cat activity at a burrow-system entrance was significantly higher than that of any other potential predator, however fire had no effect on the visitation rates of feral cats, dingoes or large snakes to great desert skink burrow-systems. The remains of great desert skink were found significantly more frequently in feral cat scats, compared to fox and dingo scats. We provide the first direct evidence that feral cats are a significant predator for great desert skink, thus supporting the hypothesis that feral cat predation is a key threatening process. Feral cat activity was not influenced by small-scale experimental burns, however, this does not preclude an effect of larger scale fires and we recommend further research exploring this possible interaction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]