Search

The prices that govern the output of producers in specific industries hold great significance, particularly in the context of the renewable energy industry, which is profoundly influenced by the dynamics of critical mineral prices. Oil prices also affect mineral transportation and cost-competitive consumer choices, altering the renewable energy sector. This study examines the global transmission of shocks and volatility spillover effects of essential mineral and oil prices in renewable energy production covering the monthly data from January 1990 to June 2023. We use partial cross-quantilogram (PCQ) and rolling window-based recursive cross-quantilogram (RCQ) methods to address the dataset's non-normal and fat-tailed nature. The PCQ analysis shows that aluminum and copper price shock transmission and volatility spillover effects boost cumulative and decomposed renewable energy generation, particularly solar and wind power, in bullish market conditions with long-term memory. Nickel prices decline in bullish markets with long memory. Interestingly, oil price shock transmission and spillover effects benefit solar and wind energy generation over long time horizons. Thus, this study emphasizes the importance of leveraging mineral prices by determining favorable values and implementing market operations to promote environmental sustainability and sustainable development in the face of oil-based industrial expansion.

This study examines the intersection of financial markets and institutional quality (IQ) in enhancing clean energy production and access in Indonesia, a country that has placed a strong emphasis on renewable energy (RE) through its legislative framework. Utilizing various econometric methods, including Dynamic and fully-modified ordinary least squares (OLS), and dynamic simulated autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models, we analyze time series data from 1996 to 2022. The outcomes underscore the pivotal role of IQ (encompassing indicators like control of corruption, rule of law, regulatory quality, government effectiveness, political stability, and voice & accountability) in fostering the adoption of RE sources and broadening the reach of clean cooking energy. Although the impact of financial markets in isolation yields inconclusive findings, their intersection with IQ consistently bolsters Indonesia’s transition towards clean energy. This study puts forth various practical implications for policymakers seeking to bolster the efficacy of clean energy policies.

This study offers a multidimensional solution to mitigate the risk raised due to oil price volatility for navigating investments within the Russian financial landscape. This study assesses spillover effects between crypto assets and traditional financial assets encompassing equities, bonds, precious metals, foreign currency reserves, and crude oil prices. It adopts a significant temporal perspective to assess the potential ramifications of various financial crises, including global health crises and regional conflicts, on oil prices. Utilizing a daily frequency dataset spanning from January 1, 2018, to December 30, 2023, this study investigates the contagion effects of financial crises across normal, bullish, and bearish market conditions. It introduces oil price shocks for the first time to effectively gauge the impact of exogenous shocks on both crypto and conventional asset classes. Additionally, the study employs Cross Quantilogram (CQ) and TVP-VAR spillover estimation techniques to examine interconnectedness among the underlined assets. Furthermore, the study utilizes the quantile wavelet coherence estimation model to unveil volatility patterns, laying the groundwork for hypotheses related to diversification, hedging, and safe-haven investment strategies among the assets. The findings underscore the effectiveness of crypto assets in diversifying risk and serving as a hedge, particularly evident during crises, leading to heightened volatility. Conversely, government-owned bonds exhibit the lowest resilience to external shocks. Moreover, the dynamic interconnectedness among assets provides guidance to investors for implementing the proposed hypotheses that underscores the importance of prudent asset allocation policies for risk management, optimizing portfolio utilization.

Mounting geopolitical risks have led over time to a reorientation of trade integrations across different economic blocs. As one of the increasingly dominant global blocks, the organisation comprised of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) has intensified their trade integration. Therefore, we conducted a thorough analysis of how BRICS countries’ multilateral trade integration responded to geopolitical risk events from January 1996 to December 2021. To achieve this, we utilized a sophisticated econometric method, specifically the cross-quantilogram approach, to analyse high frequency data due to their non-normal and fat-tailed features. Our study confirms the proposition that geopolitical risks strengthened trade integration within the BRICS bloc. Specifically, our findings show that the volume of exports from one economy to another responded positively at lower to medium quantiles of exports and lower geopolitical risks, considering a 12–36-month horizon. Moreover, we found that the quantity of exports from Russia to China was higher in the presence of higher geopolitical risks. Our study demonstrates that geopolitical risks can create a sense of shared identity and mutual interest among the BRICS countries, fostering greater cooperation and trade integration.

This paper examines the impact of the Monetary Policy Uncertainty (MPU) of the United States on Asian developed, emerging, and frontier stock markets using a Quantile-on-Quantile (QQR) approach by using monthly data from January 2006 to December 2022 of 14 Asian countries. The study finds that US monetary policy significantly negatively influences Asian stock markets. This is primarily due to the widespread use of the US dollar as a universal currency, resulting in substantial ripple effects on other nations through trade relationships. In Asian developed markets, MPU is negatively related to Australia and New Zealand. At the same time, it has a positive relationship with Hong Kong and Japan at the upper quantiles. Among Asian emerging markets, MPU negatively impacts Taiwan's, India's, and China's returns, increasing this negative relationship at higher MPU quantiles. Additionally, MPU has a significant negative relationship with Thailand, Indonesia, Korea, and Malaysia returns. In contrast, higher quantiles of MPU have no discernible impact on the Philippines stock returns. In Asian frontier markets, MPU negatively impacts Pakistan's and Sri Lanka's returns. The implications of these findings are twofold: for investors, this study provides valuable insights for hedging activities, allowing for more informed decisions based on the MPU of other countries to identify profitable stocks. For policymakers, this research aids in formulating effective monetary policy strategies. Furthermore, future studies can build upon these results by exploring other markets and comparing their outcomes with the findings presented in this study.

This empirical research study aims to investigate the asymmetric spillovers among crypto and key financial assets such as gold, equity, bonds, and the dollar-to-ruble exchange rate volatility, focusing on new developments during the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. Utilizing time- and frequency-domain methodologies, this study conducts an in-depth analysis employing daily frequency data from January 01, 2018, to May 30, 2023. The study employs value at risk and conditional value at risk estimations to assess potential losses in the portfolio during the crisis. The findings reveal that Bitcoin exhibits hedging ability, enabling investors to diversify risk among the underlying financial assets. The study observes a significant increase in Bitcoin investments during the crisis, leading to heightened volatility and uncertainty. Negative news has a stronger impact compared to positive news, underscoring the importance of prudent asset allocation for risk mitigation. The implications of our findings are particularly significant for financial policymakers and trade partners of Russia. The study urges them to differentiate their short- and long-term strategies and procurement contracts. In the long run, policymakers should be cognizant of the influence of the riskiness of crypto assets during economic crises, guiding the formulation of prudent policies and investment decision-making initiatives.

The demand for natural gas as a transitional fuel has been increasing steadily due to global energy transitions. However, the high concentration of natural gas sources among a few producers and the dependence of many consuming economies raises questions about the macroeconomic impact of gas price shocks. Therefore, this study utilizes the global vector autoregressive (GVAR) approach to estimate the spillover effects of natural gas price shocks on key macroeconomic indicators. To enhance the GVAR data vintage, we have incorporated Iran and Russia in 24 countries and updated data till 2020. Our empirical analysis reveals that inflation responds positively to gas price hikes in major gas-consuming countries. Moreover, real GDP responds positively to increased gas prices in resource-rich countries such as Iran and Russia but negatively in other countries. Additionally, an augmentation of resource rents fosters GDP for Iran and Russia. Our findings highlight several policy implications that account for gas price shocks. Therefore, policymakers should consider the spillover effects of gas price shocks and their impact on inflation and real GDP. Moreover, resource-rich countries like Iran and Russia should optimize resource rents to foster economic growth.

This study aims to analyze the repercussions of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on the Russian financial market, focusing on the main stock market and sectorial stock indices. High-frequency hourly data from September 12, 2021, to April 29, 2022, covering the period before and after the outbreak of conflict, is utilized for analysis. The empirical investigation employs the TVP-VAR and Quantile-VAR connectedness approaches. Our findings indicate a significant impact of the conflict on the Russian stock market, leading to increased market risk during the event period. Notably, certain sectors, including oil and gas, utilities, metals & mining, financials, consumer goods, and services exerted more influence on other sectors, while chemicals, transport, and telecoms were influenced by other sectors. These insights are crucial for comprehending the financial implications of the ongoing conflict on the local economy, providing valuable guidance to portfolio managers, investors, and policymakers in devising effective financial strategies.

AbstractAfrica’s pursuit of inclusive and sustainable economic growth is impeded by many challenges, including climate change, whose effect is most apparent in the continent’s tropical regions. To this end, this study investigates the impact of climate change on achieving pro-poor economic growth in Africa. Predicated on poverty-inequality-climate analysis, the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimator is used to analyse data from 1996 to 2020 covering 51 African countries. The results reveal that climate change significantly impedes inclusive growth. Furthermore, evidence of a long-lasting negative effect of climate change on inclusive growth, which could be attributed to a lack of coping mechanisms among the poor and vulnerable groups, is found. Finally, the findings show a marginal impact of institutional quality and government spending on inclusive growth in the face of climate change. The study recommends more climate mitigation efforts and enhanced adaptation mechanisms, especially for the poor, as they are most vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change.

AbstractIn recent times, Africa has experienced remarkable economic growth; nonetheless, this advancement remains far from being considered inclusive, given the persistently high levels of poverty and income inequality across the continent. To this end, this study investigates the role of fiscal policy measures on inclusive growth using absolute and relative pro-poor measures of growth. The study utilizes panel data from 48 African countries spanning the period 1996 to 2020 and employs the Panel System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) technique for analysis. Estimation results reveal a concerning trend where public debt service exacerbates both poverty and income inequality, underscoring the adverse consequences of mounting public debt pressures in the region. Interestingly, while government expenditure reduces inequality and worsens poverty, an increase in taxation reduces poverty but worsens income inequality. Further, an increase in taxation negatively affects the income shares of the bottom and middle-income groups while the top-income groups benefit. The findings of this study have significant policy implications for improving inclusive growth in the continent.

Abstract The commitment of governments to achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement and the expected decrease in fossil fuel consumption indicate the importance of studying the risks facing the oil exporters and the range of options and responses. This study adopts the Trade Gravity model to examine the effect of clean energy policies on Russian oil exports during the period 1996–2019. Our results based on Cross‐Sectional Autoregressive Distributed Lags modeling suggest that Russian oil exports are negatively affected by the energy transitions. This indicates that investing in cleaner energy technologies as a channel toward reducing fossil fuel demand can reduce the oil trade globally. Policies and strategies to retain and support the financial stability of the Russian government under the current scenario are suggested.

We investigate the impact of credit market deepening on innovation, considering the role of investment risk and investment potential in the context of Russian regions, analysing the panel time series data extracted from the Federal Statistics Department of the Russian Federation and using the method of moments quantile regression. Our baseline findings demonstrate that credit market development spurs innovation in the sample regions in all quantiles (q10–q90), and the credit market has a positive impact on innovation, regardless of whether investment risk is lower or higher. In addition, we reveal a U-shaped relationship between innovation and regional economic growth in Russian regions. We also observe reductions in imports and exports and a boosting effect of increased employment on innovation. We propose several potential policy measures and practical conclusions based on our findings.

The Russian economy has encountered substantial exchange rate volatility due to many endogenous and exogenous shocks, including the adoption of different exchange rate systems, the global financial crisis, sanctions, and the COVID pandemic. The economy has long experience with a managed floating exchange rate system, which motivates us to investigate the exchange rate response to domestic economic policy uncertainty, incorporating oil prices and the trade volume under different economic circumstances. We apply quantile-based time-series approaches to deal with extreme values. Our empirical investigation demonstrates that the local currency appreciates in response to increased Russian economic policy uncertainty under different quantiles of the managed floating exchange rate, but it depreciates under most quantiles in a floating exchange rate period. Our findings confirm that the Russian currency appreciates with the rise in international oil prices and trade as Russia is an oil-exporting country. Moreover, the findings are robust under the quantile-on-quantile approach.

Российская экономика — это развивающаяся экономика, природные ресурсы играют доминирующую роль в экономическом развитии страны. Следовательно, на национальную экономику влияет значительная волатильность цен на ресурсы. В статье исследуется влияние эффектов перетекания волатильности на политическую неопределенность, мировые цены на нефть, обменный курс, фондовые индексы и цены на металлы в российской экономике за период со 2 июля 2008 г. по 15 мая 2020 г. Для анализа использована модель векторной авторегрессии с изменяющимися во времени параметрами (TVP-VAR). Проведенное эмпирическое исследование показывает, что цена на золото, политическая неопределенность, цена на нефть и фондовый индекс являются источниками волатильности. В то же время, волатильность влияет на такие факторы, как палладий, платина, серебро и обменный курс рубля. Рыночная капитализация является чистым донором, рынок серебра — чистым получателем. Палладий стал источником чистой волатильности после мирового финансового кризиса. Неопределенность российской экономической политики была основным источником волатильности с 2008 по 2014 гг., однако впоследствии волатильность других факторов оказывала на нее большее влияние. В 2014 г., когда цена на нефть значительно снизилась, цена на золото была основным источником волатильности для других рынков. Полная связанность рынков в значительной степени зависит от ряда экзогенных потрясений, таких как экономические санкции, введение режима плавающего обменного курса, падение цен на нефть. Исходя из представленного анализа, сформулировано несколько рекомендаций для портфельных инвесторов и стейкхолдеров в российских регионах.

Saudi Arabia sets an ambitious plan to install 58.7 GW renewable capacity along with several mitigation measures. For the smooth accomplishment of undertaken projects, the role of the financial market is crucial. This paper investigates the role of financial development in explaining the low carbon economy (LCE), incorporating the role of innovation in the context of Saudi Arabia, where fossil fuel contributes almost 100% share of the total energy mix. We apply the standard, asymmetric, and quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approaches to analyse our time-series data from 1981 to 2016 (both yearly and monthly forms). Our empirical analysis demonstrates that finance asymmetrically fosters the carbon economy, but it helps to achieve a low carbon economy through the channel of innovation under different economic circumstances. Our empirical evidence reinforces the role of the financial market in overcoming the financial constraints for launching green projects.

Russia's competitiveness and productivity encounter the intense environmental challenges due to the reckless fossil fuel consumption, putting this country's long-run sustainability at risk. Despite this, this country intends to achieve the sustainable development goal by cutting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 70% of its 1990 level as pledged in the Paris Agreement in 2016. This research assesses the relationship between disaggregate (renewable and non-renewable) energy consumption and sustainable development within the purview of financial, demographic and country risk indicators using annual time-series data from 1990 to 2020. This paper utilizes an augmented ARDL approach to co-integration and a dynamic ARDL simulation model to detect counterfactual forecasting shocks to the predictor variables and their effects on the predicted indicator. The study's findings divulge that renewable energy consumption escalates the sustainable development in the long run, whereas non-renewable energy consumption declines. Then again, urbanization and political terror scale (PTS) have a long-term adverse effect on sustainable development. On the other hand, financial openness substantially exerts a favorable long-term influence on sustainable development. Therefore, this study suggests shifting to generous renewable energy usage to ease the adverse effect of non-renewable energy consumption on the sustainable development in Russia.

Deglobalization, as opposed to the term globalization, appears in the world order due to local solutions to problems and border controls, ignoring the principles of treaties, trade wars, and the expansion of regionalism. In addition, slowbalization helps shrink the global flow of trade, information, and societal and cultural exchange dynamism. However, this scary global order, as triggered by deglobalization and slowbalization, significantly impacts the income factors of allied nations. Against this background, we aim to investigate whether deglobalization and slowbalization proxied by the influencing magnitudes of globalization dimensions (e.g., globalization de facto and de jure, internet diffusions, and trade openness) impact the income inequality of the 12 post-Soviet countries, considering the panel data during 1991–2019. To this end, we apply the quantiles via moments approach to investigate the time-varying connectedness between variables that have country and data-centric heterogeneities. Our findings depict that deglobalization is futile in affecting the post-Soviet countries’ income dynamics, as globalization negatively affects income inequality in diverse quantiles. Specifically, globalization de facto (globalized policy-implementation spectrum) and internet diffusions have a significantly negative influence on reducing income inequality from low to medium quantiles (q.25–q.75). Globalization de jure (globalized policy-decision spectrum) and trade openness are statistically insignificant in entire quantiles (q.25–q.95), implying the likely existence of slowbalization. Finally, government expenditures and governance quality are monotonically negative in reducing income inequality at all quantiles (q.25–q.95). Therefore, policy suggestions enclose galvanizing globalization potentials in curbing income inequality to keep away the distressful phases of deglobalization and slowbalization.

Developing countries often encounter budget deficits by taking loans from internal and external sources. The effectiveness of public debt has been a long debate in the seminal and empirical literature. In this study, we investigate the effectiveness of public debt on economic growth, incorporating the role of governance in 44 developing countries. In doing so, we applied the Quantile Via Moments approach to analyze heterogeneous panel data ranging 1990–2000 considering the scale and location properties under different economic circumstances. Our results show that public debt impedes economic growth in all quantiles. Our empirical finding corroborates our proposition that in the presence of good governance, public debt promotes economic growth in the medium to higher quantiles. The empirical findings of this study confirm that governance is far more important in promoting economic growth.

The Saudi economy ought to maintain a significant amount of foreign exchange reserves due to the pegged exchange rate regime. As a hydrocarbon economy, we measure the dynamic response of external assets and liabilities of banks to the international oil price in Saudi Arabia. In the presence of extreme observations, we apply sophisticated frameworks, including cross-quantilograms, quantile-on-quantile and TVP-VAR approaches, to analyze weekly time-series data from 1993 to 2021. Our results from the cross-quantilogram and quantile-on-quantile frameworks demonstrate that foreign assets and liabilities responded asymmetrically to the volatilities of international oil prices under the bullish and bearish states of the market over different memories. The TVP-VAR results indicate that, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Saudi economy encountered negative net foreign assets, which occurred mainly as a significant plague of international oil prices. Our findings are robust under different estimators.

Mineral resources are essential raw materials to generate electricity, fuel vehicles, and heat homes and workplaces. Besides, the global agenda of clean energy deployment, including solar photovoltaics (PV), wind turbines, electric vehicles (EV), and storage facilities, calls for a considerable volume of critical minerals, which elevates their respective import demands. This highly concentrated source of those minerals poses a significant concern triggered by the augmented geopolitical tensions and economic policy uncertainties. In light of this context, our objective is to estimate the response of mineral import demand to global geopolitical risk events and economic policy uncertainty covering monthly data from January 1996 to December 2020. In doing so, we apply the cross-quantilogram (CQ) and the quantile-on-quantile (QQ) regression approaches due to the fat-tailed nature of the data property. Besides, these quantile-based data analysis procedures are appropriate for non-normal data sets and show the co-movement of the variables of interest under a bi-variate modelling approach. More importantly, these two techniques also exhibit the quantile connectedness among the variables in the bearish and bullish conditions. Moreover, our findings show that mineral import demand responds negatively to the USA’s (own) and global geopolitical risk events at the high quantiles under long memory. In addition, this demand reacts positively to the USA’s (own) and global economic policy uncertainty in entire quantiles under long memory. Therefore, our policy suggestions are concerned with tackling geopolitical tensions and economic policy uncertainty by adopting pre-emptive measures within a viable institutional mechanism to continue impressive mineral trade flows.

Digitalization is one of the key world economic trends. Countries with the wealthiest economies have integrated the digitalization program into their economic development plans. At the same time, monitoring of the digitalization’s dynamics and degree of impact on welfare is of great importance for all countries of the global community. Nowadays, there are practically no integrated studies assessing institutional, cultural, economic, educational and infrastructural consequences of the digitalization. This article assesses how the digitalization affect s the mentioned driver s o f social an d economic development . Moreover , it examines the digitalization’s impact on welfare of the developed and developing countries. The relevance of defining the effects of digitalization’s rapid implementation in various countries determined the study’s purpose. We based the methodology on building the balanced panel regression. The key metric for measuring the digitalization is the Digital Evolution Index of 50 countries for 2008, 2013 and 2017. The research findings have confirmed positive impact of the digitalization in the developed countries due to a high levels of digital inclusivity, public and private investment, and digital literacy and trust. At the same time, in the developing countries the digitalization’s impact on welfare was not confirmed due to a low level of state involvement in digitalization development and rigid, non-flexible institutional environment. The obtained empirical results can be used for forming management tools of the digitalization strategy for regions with various levels of social, economic, institutional and digital environment development.

Corruption occurs in many places within the government. To tackle the issue, open data can be used as one of the tools in creating more insight into the government. The premise of this paper is to support the notion that data opening can bring up new ways of fighting corruption. The current paper aimed at investigating how open data can be employed to detect corruption. This open data is trivial due to challenges like information asymmetry among stakeholders, data might only be opened partly, different sources of data need to be combined, and data might not be easy to use, might be biased or even manipulated. The study was conducted using a literature review approach. The reviews implied that corruption can be detected using Open Government Data, Thus, by conducting the open data technique within the government, the public could monitor the activities of the governments. The practical contribution of this paper is expected to assist the government in detecting corruption by using a data-driven approach. Furthermore, the scientific contribution will originate from the development of a framework reference architecture to uncover corruption cases.

This study investigates the interconnectedness among the stocks of the publicly listed vaccine-producing companies before and after vaccine releases in 2020/21. In doing so, the study utilizes the daily frequency equity returns of the major vaccine producers, including Moderna, Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson, Sinopharm and AstraZeneca. First, the investigation applies the TVP-VAR Dynamic Connectedness approach to explore the time–frequency connectedness between the stocks of those vaccine producers. The empirical findings demonstrate that Moderna performs as the most prominent net volatility contributor, whereas Sinopharm is the highest net volatility receiver. Interestingly, the vaccine release significantly increases the stock market connectedness among our sampled vaccine companies. Second, the cross-quantile dependency framework allows for the observation of the interconnectedness under the bearish and bullish stock market conditions by splitting any paired variables into 19 quantiles when considering short-, medium- and long-memories. The results also show that a high level of connectivity among the vaccine producers exists under bullish stock market conditions. Notably, Moderna transmits significant volatility spillovers to Sinopharm, Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca under both the bearish and bullish conditions, though the volatility transmission from Moderna to Pfizer is less pronounced. The policy implication proposes that the vaccine release allows companies to increase their stock returns and induce substantial volatility spillovers from company to company.