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THE LAST HALF-CENTURY HAS BROUGHT ABOUT A number of pressing social and criminal justice issues around the world. These social changes have been particularly tumultuous in the United States. From [...]

This study consists of a comparative analysis of patterns of de-escalation between ages 17-18 and 32, based on data from two well-known prospective longitudinal studies, the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (a study of 411 working-class males in London) and the Montreal Two Samples Longitudinal Study (a sample of 470 adjudicated French-Canadian males). Analyses focus on within-individual change, with individuals serving as their own controls. In this regard, the magnitude of measured change is relative to the past degree of involvement in offending. These results are contrasted with predictors of between-individual differences in offending behavior at age 32. We investigate the respective roles of cognitive predispositions and social bonds in the prediction of patterns of de-escalation, and assess whether it is possible to make relatively long-term predictions (over a 15-year period) about offending in adulthood. Findings suggest that traditional measures of social bonds and cognitive predispositions measured at age 17-18 are generally weak predictors of de-escalation up to age 32. However, these measures are stronger predictors of between-individual differences in offending gravity. These findings highlight the difficulties in making accurate long-term predictions about changes in individual offending patterns early in the criminal career.

Using a sample of adjudicated French Canadian males from the Montreal Two Samples Longitudinal Study, this article investigates individual and social characteristics associated with differential cost avoidance. The main objective of this study is to determine whether such traits are randomly distributed across differential degrees of cost avoidance or whether they reflect some degree of rationality. Differential cost avoidance is a composite measure that includes the ratio of self-reported career length to officially recorded career length, the ratio of self-reported offending gravity to officially recorded gravity, and the ratio of time "free" to periods of incarceration. Findings reveal that it is particularly difficult to predict differential cost avoidance at early ages. The main predictors of the residual degree of differential cost avoidance in the early 30s include substance use (especially drugs), the accumulation of debts, and the use of violence in the perpetration of crime. Implications for desistance research are discussed. (Contains 3 tables and 4 notes.)

Very few studies have explored residual career length (RCL) and residual number of offenses (RNO), that is, the remaining time and number of offenses in criminal careers. This study uses conviction data from the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development to investigate RCL and RNO, for a sample of British males and their fathers. The sons were followed up to age 40 and the fathers up to age 70. Distributions of RCL and RNO according to six different criteria are presented (age on offense, conviction number, time since the last conviction. age of onset, offense type, and number of co-offenders). There was a general decline in RCL and RNO with age. Although RCL declined steadily with each successive conviction for both sons and fathers, RNO did not decline with conviction number for fathers. Over and above age on conviction, age of onset predicted RCL and RNO for sons, but less so for fathers. The type of offense and the number of co-offenders did not predict RCL or RNO. Risk scores showed that the predictive power of these variables tot RCL and RNO was statistically significant but not very high. This finding highlights the difficulties associated with predictions of criminal career outcomes based on information available in official records, which is the main source of information available to decisionmakers in the criminal justice system. Keywords: residual career length, residual number of offenses; criminal career

Despite the growing body of research on desistance from crime, there have been comparatively few studies that have focused specifically on desistance from sex offending. Much remains unknown about whether the findings from the general desistance literature are applicable to individuals convicted of a sexual offense. The current study explores this issue. Given the well-established importance of the social support network in the process of desistance from crime, this research focuses on the influence of indicators of family support on reoffending outcomes. We also examine the sustained effects of family ties on offending behavior over time. In addition, we look beyond traditional measures of social bonds (i.e., marital status and employment) and assess the impact of the stability of family support on reoffending outcomes. The current research explores the criminal career trajectories of a sample of 318 Canadian individuals convicted of a sexual offense and released back into their communities. Analyses yielded two distinct groups of offenders: one displaying a very low rate of reoffending that continued to decline over the follow-up period, and the other showing a higher rate of reoffending but also with steady declines throughout the observation period. Findings showed that while marriage was not significantly associated with reoffending, stable family support was significantly linked to reduced reoffending. We also found evidence of a sustained effect of family support on reoffending over a 3-year period. These findings underline the importance of expanding beyond the traditional measures of social bonds conventionally used in desistance studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]