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BackgroundNon-sputum-based triage tests for tuberculosis are a priority for ending tuberculosis. We aimed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of the late-prototype Xpert MTB Host Response (Xpert HR) blood-based assay.MethodsWe conducted a prospective diagnostic accuracy study among outpatients with presumed tuberculosis in outpatient clinics in Viet Nam, India, the Philippines, Uganda, and South Africa. Eligible participants were aged 18 years or older and reported cough lasting at least 2 weeks. We excluded those receiving tuberculosis treatment in the preceding 12 months and those who were unwilling to consent. Xpert HR was performed on capillary or venous blood. Reference standard testing included sputum Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra and mycobacterial culture. We performed receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify the optimal cutoff value for the Xpert HR to achieve the target sensitivity of 90% or more while maximising specificity, then calculated diagnostic accuracy using this cutoff value. This study was prospectively registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04923958.FindingsBetween July 13, 2021, and Aug 15, 2022, 2046 adults with at least 2 weeks of cough were identified, of whom 1499 adults (686 [45·8%] females and 813 [54·2%] males) had valid Xpert HR and reference standard results. 329 (21·9%) had microbiologically confirmed tuberculosis. Xpert HR had an area under the ROC curve of 0·89 (95% CI 0·86-0·91). The optimal cutoff value was less than or equal to -1·25, giving a sensitivity of 90·3% (95% CI 86·5-93·3; 297 of 329) and a specificity of 62·6% (95% CI 59·7-65·3; 732 of 1170). Sensitivity was similar across countries, by sex, and by subgroups, although specificity was lower in people living with HIV (45·1%, 95% CI 37·8-52·6) than in those not living with HIV (65·9%, 62·8-68·8; difference of 20·8%, 95% CI 13·0-28·6; p

In settings with high tuberculosis (TB) endemicity, distinct genotypes of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) often differ in prevalence. However, the factors leading to these differences remain poorly understood. Here we studied the MTBC population in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania over a six-year period, using 1,082 unique patient-derived MTBC whole-genome sequences (WGS) and associated clinical data. We show that the TB epidemic in Dar es Salaam is dominated by multiple MTBC genotypes introduced to Tanzania from different parts of the world during the last 300 years. The most common MTBC genotypes deriving from these introductions exhibited differences in transmission rates and in the duration of the infectious period, but little differences in overall fitness, as measured by the effective reproductive number. Moreover, measures of disease severity and bacterial load indicated no differences in virulence between these genotypes during active TB. Instead, the combination of an early introduction and a high transmission rate accounted for the high prevalence of L3.1.1, the most dominant MTBC genotype in this setting. Yet, a longer co-existence with the host population did not always result in a higher transmission rate, suggesting that distinct life-history traits have evolved in the different MTBC genotypes. Taken together, our results point to bacterial factors as important determinants of the TB epidemic in Dar es Salaam.

BackgroundC-reactive protein (CRP) has shown promise as a triage tool for pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) in adults living with the human immunodeficiency virus. We performed the first assessment of CRP for TB triage in children.MethodsSymptomatic children less than 15 years old were prospectively enrolled in Kampala, Uganda. We completed a standard TB evaluation and measured CRP using a point-of-care assay. We determined the sensitivity and specificity of CRP to identify pulmonary TB in children using 10 mg/L and 5 mg/L cut-off points and generated a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to determine alternative cut-offs that could approach the target accuracy for a triage test (≥90% sensitivity and ≥70% specificity).ResultsWe included 332 children (median age 3 years old, interquartile range [IQR]: 1-6). The median CRP level was low at 3.0 mg/L (IQR: 2.5-26.6) but was higher in children with Confirmed TB than in children with Unlikely TB (9.5 mg/L vs. 2.9 mg/L, P-value = .03). At a 10 mg/L cut-off, CRP sensitivity was 50.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 37.0-63.0) among Confirmed TB cases and specificity was 63.3% (95% CI, 54.7-71.3) among children with Unlikely TB. Sensitivity increased to 56.5% (95% CI, 43.3-69.0) at the 5 mg/L cut-off, but specificity decreased to 54.0% (95% CI, 45.3-62.4). The area under the ROC curve was 0.59 (95% CI, 0.51-0.67), and the highest sensitivity achieved was 66.1% at a specificity of 46.8%.ConclusionsCRP levels were low in children with pulmonary TB, and CRP was unable to achieve the accuracy targets for a TB triage test.

IntroductionHigh levels of treatment adherence are critical for achieving optimal treatment outcomes among patients with tuberculosis (TB), especially for drug-resistant TB (DR TB). Current tools for identifying high-risk non-adherence are insufficient. Here, we apply trajectory analysis to characterize adherence behavior early in DR TB treatment and assess whether these patterns predict treatment outcomes.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective analysis of Philippines DR TB patients treated between 2013 and 2016. To identify unique patterns of adherence, we performed group-based trajectory modelling on adherence to the first 12 weeks of treatment. We estimated the association of adherence trajectory group with six-month and final treatment outcomes using univariable and multivariable logistic regression. We also estimated and compared the predictive accuracy of adherence trajectory group and a binary adherence threshold for treatment outcomes.ResultsOf 596 patients, 302 (50.7%) had multidrug resistant TB, 11 (1.8%) extremely drug-resistant (XDR) TB, and 283 (47.5%) pre-XDR TB. We identified three distinct adherence trajectories during the first 12 weeks of treatment: a high adherence group (n = 483), a moderate adherence group (n = 93) and a low adherence group (n = 20). Similar patterns were identified at 4 and 8 weeks. Being in the 12-week moderate or low adherence group was associated with unfavorable six-month (adjusted OR [aOR] 3.42, 95% CI 1.90-6.12) and final (aOR 2.71, 95% 1.73-4.30) treatment outcomes. Adherence trajectory group performed similarly to a binary threshold classification for the prediction of final treatment outcomes (65.9% vs. 65.4% correctly classified), but was more accurate for prediction of six-month treatment outcomes (79.4% vs. 60.0% correctly classified).ConclusionsAdherence patterns are strongly predictive of DR TB treatment outcomes. Trajectory-based analyses represent an exciting avenue of research into TB patient adherence behavior seeking to inform interventions which rapidly identify and support patients with high-risk adherence patterns.

BackgroundNew, sensitive diagnostic tests facilitate identification and investigation of milder forms of tuberculosis (TB) disease. We used community-based TB testing with the Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra assay ("Ultra") to characterize individuals with previously undiagnosed TB and compare them to those from the same community who were diagnosed with TB through routine care.MethodsWe offered community-based sputum Ultra testing to adult residents of a well-defined area (population 34 000 adults) in Kampala, Uganda, via door-to-door screening and venue-based testing, then used detailed interview and laboratory testing to characterize TB-positive individuals. We compared these individuals to residents diagnosed with pulmonary TB at local health facilities and a representative sample of residents without TB (controls).ResultsOf 12 032 residents with interpretable Ultra results, 113 (940 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 780-1130] per 100 000) tested positive, including 71 (63%) positive at the lowest (trace) level. A spectrum of TB disease was observed in terms of chronic cough (93% among health facility-diagnosed cases, 77% among residents with positive community-based Ultra results at levels above trace, 33% among trace-positive community participants, and 18% among TB-negative controls), TB symptom prevalence (99%, 87%, 60%, and 38%, respectively), and C-reactive protein (75th percentile: 101 mg/L, 28 mg/L, 6 mg/L, and 4 mg/L, respectively). Community-diagnosed cases were less likely than health facility-diagnosed cases to have human immunodeficiency virus coinfection or previous TB. The specificity of Ultra was 99.4% (95% CI, 99.2%-99.5%) relative to a single spot sputum culture.ConclusionsPeople with undiagnosed prevalent TB in the community have different characteristics than those diagnosed with pulmonary TB in health facilities. Newer diagnostic tests may identify a group of people with early or very mild disease.

BackgroundXpert MTB/RIF Ultra (Xpert Ultra) has improved the sensitivity to detect pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) in adults. However, there have been limited prospective evaluations of its diagnostic accuracy in children.MethodsWe enrolled children undergoing assessment for pulmonary TB in Kampala, Uganda, over a 12-month period. Children received a complete TB evaluation and were classified as Confirmed, Unconfirmed, or Unlikely TB. We calculated the sensitivity and specificity of Xpert Ultra among children with Confirmed vs Unlikely TB. We also determined the diagnostic accuracy with clinical, microbiological, and extended microbiological reference standards (MRSs).ResultsOf the 213 children included, 23 (10.8%) had Confirmed TB, 88 (41.3%) had Unconfirmed TB, and 102 (47.9%) had Unlikely TB. The median age was 3.9 years, 13% were HIV-positive, and 61.5% were underweight. Xpert Ultra sensitivity was 69.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 47.1-86.8) among children with Confirmed TB and decreased to 23.4% (95% CI: 15.9-32.4) with the clinical reference standard. Specificity was 100% (95% CI: 96.4-100) among children with Unlikely TB and decreased to 94.7% (95% CI: 90.5-97.4) with a MRS. Sensitivity was 52.9% (95% CI: 35.1-70.2) and specificity 95.5% (95% CI: 91.4-98.1) with the extended MRS. Of the 26 positive Xpert Ultra results, 6 (23.1%) were "Trace-positive," with most (5/6) occurring in children with Unconfirmed TB.ConclusionsXpert Ultra is a useful tool for diagnosing pulmonary TB in children, but there remains a need for more sensitive tests to detect culture-negative TB.

BackgroundTens of millions of children are exposed to Mycobacterium tuberculosis globally every year; however, there are no contemporary estimates of the risk of developing tuberculosis in exposed children. The effectiveness of contact investigations and preventive therapy remains poorly understood.MethodsIn this systematic review and meta-analysis, we investigated the development of tuberculosis in children closely exposed to a tuberculosis case and followed for incident disease. We restricted our search to cohort studies published between Jan 1, 1998, and April 6, 2018, in MEDLINE, Web of Science, BIOSIS, and Embase electronic databases. Individual-participant data and a pre-specified list of variables were requested from authors of all eligible studies. These included characteristics of the exposed child, the index case, and environmental characteristics. To be eligible for inclusion in the final analysis, a dataset needed to include: (1) individuals below 19 years of age; (2) follow-up for tuberculosis for a minimum of 6 months; (3) individuals with household or close exposure to an individual with tuberculosis; (4) information on the age and sex of the child; and (5) start and end follow-up dates. Studies assessing incident tuberculosis but without dates or time of follow-up were excluded. Our analysis had two primary aims: (1) estimating the risk of developing tuberculosis by time-period of follow-up, demographics (age, region), and clinical attributes (HIV, tuberculosis infection status, previous tuberculosis); and (2) estimating the effectiveness of preventive therapy and BCG vaccination on the risk of developing tuberculosis. We estimated the odds of prevalent tuberculosis with mixed-effects logistic models and estimated adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for incident tuberculosis with mixed-effects Poisson regression models. The effectiveness of preventive therapy against incident tuberculosis was estimated through propensity score matching. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42018087022).FindingsIn total, study groups from 46 cohort studies in 34 countries-29 (63%) prospective studies and 17 (37%) retrospective-agreed to share their data and were included in the final analysis. 137 647 tuberculosis-exposed children were evaluated at baseline and 130 512 children were followed for 429 538 person-years, during which 1299 prevalent and 999 incident tuberculosis cases were diagnosed. Children not receiving preventive therapy with a positive result for tuberculosis infection had significantly higher 2-year cumulative tuberculosis incidence than children with a negative result for tuberculosis infection, and this incidence was greatest among children below 5 years of age (19·0% [95% CI 8·4-37·4]). The effectiveness of preventive therapy was 63% (adjusted HR 0·37 [95% CI 0·30-0·47]) among all exposed children, and 91% (adjusted HR 0·09 [0·05-0·15]) among those with a positive result for tuberculosis infection. Among all children

BackgroundClinical tuberculosis diagnosis and empiric treatment have traditionally been common among patients with negative bacteriologic test results. Increasing availability of rapid molecular diagnostic tests, including Xpert MTB/RIF and the new Xpert Ultra cartridge, may alter the role of empiric treatment.MethodsWe prospectively enrolled outpatients age > = 15 who were evaluated for pulmonary tuberculosis at three health facilities in Kampala, Uganda. Using sputum mycobacterial culture, interviews, and clinical record abstraction, we estimated the accuracy of clinical diagnosis relative to Xpert and sputum culture and assessed the contribution of clinical diagnosis to case detection.ResultsOver a period of 9 months, 99 patients were diagnosed with pulmonary tuberculosis and subsequently completed sputum culture; they were matched to 196 patients receiving negative tuberculosis evaluations in the same facilities. Xpert was included in the evaluation of 291 (99%) patients. Compared to culture, Xpert had a sensitivity of 92% (95% confidence interval 83-97%) and specificity of 95% (92-98%). Twenty patients with negative Xpert were clinically diagnosed with tuberculosis and subsequently had their culture status determined; two (10%) were culture-positive. Considering all treated patients regardless of Xpert and culture data completeness, and considering treatment initiations before a positive Xpert (N = 4) to be empiric, 26/101 (26%) tuberculosis treatment courses were started empirically. Compared to sputum smear- or Xpert-positive patients with positive cultures, empirically-treated, Xpert-negative patients with negative cultures had higher prevalence of HIV (67% versus 37%), shorter duration of cough (median 4 versus 8 weeks), and lower inflammatory markers (median CRP 7 versus 101 mg/L).ConclusionJudged against sputum culture in a routine care setting of high HIV prevalence, the accuracy of Xpert was high. Clinical judgment identified a small number of additional culture-positive cases, but with poor specificity. Although clinicians should continue to prescribe tuberculosis treatment for Xpert-negative patients whose clinical presentations strongly suggest pulmonary tuberculosis, they should also carefully consider alternative diagnoses.

OBJECTIVES:Thousands of cases of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) have been observed in the Philippines, but studies on the Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) genotypes that underlie the observed drug resistance profiles are lacking. This study aimed to analyse the whole genomes of clinical MTB isolates representing various resistance profiles to identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in resistance-associated genes. METHODS:The genomes of ten MTB isolates cultured from banked sputum sources were sequenced. Bioinformatics analysis consisted of assembly, annotation and SNP identification in genes reported to be associated with resistance to isoniazid (INH), rifampicin (RIF), ethambutol (ETH), streptomycin, pyrazinamide (PZA) and fluoroquinolones (FQs). RESULTS:The draft assemblies covered an average of 97.08% of the expected genome size. Seven of the ten isolates belonged to the Indo-Oceanic lineage/EA12-Manila clade. Two isolates were classified into the Euro-American lineage, whilst the pre-XDR (pre-extensively drug-resistant) isolate was classified under the East Asian/Beijing clade. The SNPs katG Ser315Thr, rpoB Ser450Leu and embB Met306Val were found in INH- (4/7), RIF- (3/6) and ETH-resistant (2/6) isolates, respectively, but not in susceptible isolates. Mutations in the inhA promoter and in the pncA and gyrA genes known to be involved in resistance to INH, PZA and FQs, respectively, were also identified. CONCLUSIONS:This study represents the first effort to investigate the whole genomes of Philippine clinical strains of MTB exhibiting various multidrug resistance profiles. Whole-genome data can provide valuable insights to the mechanistic and epidemiological qualities of TB in a high-burden setting such as the Philippines.

IntroductionIncomplete understanding of TB transmission dynamics in high HIV prevalence settings remains an obstacle for prevention. Understanding where transmission occurs could provide a platform for case finding and interrupting transmission.MethodsFrom 2012-2015, we sought to recruit all adults starting TB treatment in a Ugandan community. Participants underwent household (HH) contact investigation, and provided names of social contacts, sites of work, healthcare and socializing, and two sputum samples. Mycobacterium tuberculosis culture-positive specimens underwent 24-loci MIRU-VNTR and spoligotyping. We sought to identify epidemiologic links between genotype-matched cases by analyzing social networks and mapping locations where cases reported spending ≥12 hours over the one-month pre-treatment. Sites of spatial overlap (≤100m) between genotype-matched cases were considered potential transmission sites. We analyzed social networks stratified by genotype clustering status, with cases linked by shared locations, and compared network density by location type between clustered vs. non-clustered cases.ResultsOf 173 adults with TB, 131 (76%) were enrolled, 108 provided sputum, and 84/131 (78%) were MTB culture-positive: 52% (66/131) tested HIV-positive. Of 118 adult HH contacts, 105 (89%) were screened and 3 (2.5%) diagnosed with active TB. Overall, 33 TB cases (39%) belonged to 15 distinct MTB genotype-matched clusters. Within each cluster, no cases shared a HH or reported shared non-HH contacts. In 6/15 (40%) clusters, potential epidemiologic links were identified by spatial overlap at specific locations: 5/6 involved health care settings. Genotype-clustered TB social networks had significantly greater network density based on shared clinics (p

BackgroundIt is unknown whether immunosuppression influences the physiologic state of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in vivo. We evaluated the impact of host immunity by comparing M. tuberculosis and human gene transcription in sputum between human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected and uninfected patients with tuberculosis.MethodsWe collected sputum specimens before treatment from Gambians and Ugandans with pulmonary tuberculosis, revealed by positive results of acid-fast bacillus smears. We quantified expression of 2179 M. tuberculosis genes and 234 human immune genes via quantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction. We summarized genes from key functional categories with significantly increased or decreased expression.ResultsA total of 24 of 65 patients with tuberculosis were HIV infected. M. tuberculosis DosR regulon genes were less highly expressed among HIV-infected patients with tuberculosis than among HIV-uninfected patients with tuberculosis (Gambia, P < .0001; Uganda, P = .037). In profiling of human genes from the same sputa, HIV-infected patients had 3.4-fold lower expression of IFNG (P = .005), 4.9-fold higher expression of ARG1 (P = .0006), and 3.4-fold higher expression of IL10 (P = .0002) than in HIV-uninfected patients with tuberculosis.ConclusionsM. tuberculosis in HIV-infected patients had lower expression of the DosR regulon, a critical metabolic and immunomodulatory switch induced by NO, carbon monoxide, and hypoxia. Our human data suggest that decreased DosR expression may result from alternative pathway activation of macrophages, with consequent decreased NO expression and/or by poor granuloma formation with consequent decreased hypoxic stress.

Continuous-time birth-death-shift (BDS) processes are frequently used in stochastic modeling, with many applications in ecology and epidemiology. In particular, such processes can model evolutionary dynamics of transposable elements-important genetic markers in molecular epidemiology. Estimation of the effects of individual covariates on the birth, death, and shift rates of the process can be accomplished by analyzing patient data, but inferring these rates in a discretely and unevenly observed setting presents computational challenges. We propose a multi-type branching process approximation to BDS processes and develop a corresponding expectation maximization algorithm, where we use spectral techniques to reduce calculation of expected sufficient statistics to low-dimensional integration. These techniques yield an efficient and robust optimization routine for inferring the rates of the BDS process, and apply broadly to multi-type branching processes whose rates can depend on many covariates. After rigorously testing our methodology in simulation studies, we apply our method to study intrapatient time evolution of IS6110 transposable element, a genetic marker frequently used during estimation of epidemiological clusters of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infections.

The transcontinental spread of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis is poorly characterized in molecular epidemiologic studies. We used genomic sequencing to understand the establishment and dispersion of MDR Mycobacterium tuberculosis within a group of immigrants to the United States. We used a genomic epidemiology approach to study a genotypically matched (by spoligotype, IS6110 restriction fragment length polymorphism, and mycobacterial interspersed repetitive units-variable number of tandem repeat signature) lineage 2/Beijing MDR strain implicated in an outbreak of tuberculosis among refugees in Thailand and consecutive cases within California. All 46 MDR M. tuberculosis genomes from both Thailand and California were highly related, with a median difference of 10 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). The Wat Tham Krabok (WTK) strain is a new sequence type distinguished from all known Beijing strains by 55 SNPs and a genomic deletion (Rv1267c) associated with increased fitness. Sequence data revealed a highly prevalent MDR strain that included several closely related but distinct allelic variants within Thailand, rather than the occurrence of a single outbreak. In California, sequencing data supported multiple independent introductions of WTK with subsequent transmission and reactivation within the state, as well as a potential super spreader with a prolonged infectious period. Twenty-seven drug resistance-conferring mutations and 4 putative compensatory mutations were found within WTK strains. Genomic sequencing has substantial epidemiologic value in both low- and high-burden settings in understanding transmission chains of highly prevalent MDR strains.

ObjectivesTargeting high Tuberculosis (TB) transmission sites may offer a novel approach to TB prevention in sub-Saharan Africa. We sought to characterise TB transmission sites in a rural Ugandan township.MethodsWe recruited adults starting TB treatment in Tororo, Uganda, over 1 year. Fifty four TB cases provided names of frequent contacts, sites of residence, health care, work and social activities, and two sputum samples. Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) culture-positive specimens underwent spoligotyping to identify strains with shared genotypes. We visualised TB case social networks, and obtained, mapped and geo-coded global positioning system measures for every location that cases reported frequenting 1 month before treatment. Locations of spatial overlap among genotype-clustered cases were considered potential transmission sites.ResultsSix distinct genotypic clusters were identified involving 21 of 33 (64%) MTB culture-positive, genotyped cases; none shared a home. Although 18 of 54 (33%) TB cases shared social network ties, none of the genotype-clustered cases shared social ties. Using spatial analysis, we identified potential sites of within-cluster TB transmission for five of six genotypic clusters. All sites but one were healthcare and social venues, including sites of drinking, worship and marketplaces. Cases reported spending the largest proportion of pre-treatment person-time (22.4%) at drinking venues.ConclusionsUsing molecular epidemiology, geospatial and social network data from adult TB cases identified at clinics, we quantified person-time spent at high-risk locations across a rural Ugandan community and determined the most likely sites of recent TB transmission to be healthcare and social venues. These sites may not have been identified using contact investigation alone.

BACKGROUND: Pyrazinamide (PZA) is a first line agent for the treatment of active tuberculosis. PZA is also considered a potent companion drug for newer regimens under development. There are limited data on the demographic, clinical, and pathogen characteristics of PZA resistant tuberculosis. METHODS: Using a retrospective cohort study design, we evaluated all PZA resistant M. tuberculosis (M.tb) and M. bovis cases reported in San Francisco from 1991 to 2011. Demographic, clinical, and molecular data were analyzed. M.tb lineage was determined for all PZA resistant strains and compared to PZA susceptible strains. RESULTS: PZA resistance was identified in 1.8% (50 of 2,842) of mycobacterial isolates tested, corresponding to a case rate of 0.3 per 100,000 in the population. Monoresistant PZA infection was associated with the Hispanic population ([OR], 6.3; 95% [CI], 1.97-20.16) and 48% of cases were due to M. bovis. Infection with monoresistant PZA was also associated with extrapulmonary disease ([OR], 6.0; 95% [CI], 2.70-13.26). There was no statistically significant difference between treatment failure and mortality rates in patients infected with PZA monoresistance compared to pansusceptible controls (4% vs. 8%, p = 0.51), or those with PZA and MDR resistance (PZA-MDR) compared to MDR controls (18% vs. 29%, p = 0.40). PZA resistance was not associated with M.tb lineage. CONCLUSIONS: Across two decades of comprehensive epidemiologic data on tuberculosis in San Francisco County, PZA resistance was uncommon. PZA resistance caused predominantly extrapulmonary disease and was more common in Hispanics compared to other ethnicities, with nearly half the cases attributed to M. bovis. No association was found between PZA monoresistance and M.tb lineage. Treatment outcomes were not adversely influenced by the presence of PZA resistance.

RationaleIn San Francisco, 70% of the tuberculosis cases occur among foreign-born persons, mainly from China, the Philippines, and Mexico. We postulate that there are differences in the characteristics and risk factors for tuberculosis among these populations.ObjectivesTo determine the clinical, epidemiological and microbiological characteristics of tuberculosis caused by recent infection and rapid evolution in the major groups of foreign-born and the U.S.-born populations.MethodsWe analyzed data from a 20-year prospective community-based study of the molecular epidemiology of tuberculosis in San Francisco. We included all culture-positive tuberculosis cases in the City during the study period.Measurements and main resultsWe calculated and compared incidence rates, clinical and microbiological characteristics, and risk factors for being a secondary case between the various foreign-born and U.S.-born tuberculosis populations. Between 1991 and 2010, there were 4,058 new cases of tuberculosis, of which 1,226 (30%) were U.S.-born and 2,832 (70%) were foreign-born. A total of 3,278 (81%) were culture positive, of which 2,419 (74%) had complete data for analysis. The incidence rate, including the incidence rate of tuberculosis due to recent infection and rapid evolution, decreased significantly in the U.S.-born and the major foreign-born populations. The clinical and microbiological characteristics and the risk factors for tuberculosis due to recent infection differed among the groups.ConclusionsThere are differences in the characteristics and the risk factors for tuberculosis due to recent transmission among the major foreign-born and U.S.-born populations in San Francisco. These differences should be considered for the design of targeted tuberculosis control interventions.

Continuous-time linear birth-death-immigration (BDI) processes are frequently used in ecology and epidemiology to model stochastic dynamics of the population of interest. In clinical settings, multiple birth-death processes can describe disease trajectories of individual patients, allowing for estimation of the effects of individual covariates on the birth and death rates of the process. Such estimation is usually accomplished by analyzing patient data collected at unevenly spaced time points, referred to as panel data in the biostatistics literature. Fitting linear BDI processes to panel data is a nontrivial optimization problem because birth and death rates can be functions of many parameters related to the covariates of interest. We propose a novel expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for fitting linear BDI models with covariates to panel data. We derive a closed-form expression for the joint generating function of some of the BDI process statistics and use this generating function to reduce the E-step of the EM algorithm, as well as calculation of the Fisher information, to one-dimensional integration. This analytical technique yields a computationally efficient and robust optimization algorithm that we implemented in an open-source R package. We apply our method to DNA fingerprinting of Mycobacterium tuberculosis, the causative agent of tuberculosis, to study intrapatient time evolution of IS6110 copy number, a genetic marker frequently used during estimation of epidemiological clusters of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infections. Our analysis reveals previously undocumented differences in IS6110 birth-death rates among three major lineages of Mycobacterium tuberculosis, which has important implications for epidemiologists that use IS6110 for DNA fingerprinting of Mycobacterium tuberculosis.

The Beijing family of Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains is part of lineage 2 (also known as the East Asian lineage). In clinical studies, we have observed that isolates from the sublineage RD207 of lineage 2 were more readily transmitted among humans. To investigate the basis for this difference, we tested representative strains with the characteristic Beijing spoligotype from four of the five sublineages of lineage 2 in the guinea pig model and subjected these strains to comparative whole-genome sequencing. The results of these studies showed that all of the clinical strains were capable of growing and causing lung pathology in guinea pigs after low-dose aerosol exposure. Differences between the abilities of the four sublineages to grow in the lungs of these animals were not overt, but members of RD207 were significantly more pathogenic, resulting in severe lung damage. The RD207 strains also induced much higher levels of markers associated with regulatory T cells and showed a significant loss of activated T cells in the lungs over the course of the infections. Whole-genome sequencing of the strains revealed mutations specific for RD207 which may explain this difference. Based on these data, we hypothesize that the sublineages of M. tuberculosis are associated with distinct pathological and clinical phenotypes and that these differences influence the transmissibility of particular M. tuberculosis strains in human populations.

BACKGROUND: Specific isoniazid (INH) resistance conferring mutations have been shown to impact the likelihood of tuberculosis (TB) transmission. However, their role in the clinical presentation and outcomes of TB has not been evaluated. METHODS: We included all cases of culture-confirmed, INH monoresistant tuberculosis reported to the San Francisco Department of Public Health Tuberculosis Control Section from October 1992 through October 2005. For cases with stored culture isolates, we used polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing and gene sequencing to identify INH resistance-conferring mutations, and compared genotypic and phenotypic characteristics. RESULTS: Among 101 consecutive cases of INH monoresistant TB in San Francisco 19 (19%) had isolates with a katG mutation other than S315T; 38 (38%) had isolates with the katG S315T mutation, 29 (29%) had isolates with a inhA-15;c-t promoter mutation, and 15 (15%) had isolates with other mutations. The katG S315T mutation was independently associated with high-level INH resistance (risk ratio [RR] 1.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07-2.27), and the inhA-15;c-t promoter mutation was inversely associated with high-level INH resistance (RR 0.43, 95% CI 0.21-0.89). However, specific INH resistance-conferring mutations were not associated with the clinical severity or outcomes of INH monoresistant TB cases. CONCLUSION: These data suggest that INH resistance-conferring mutations do not impact the clinical presentation of TB.

Laboratory and epidemiologic evidence suggests that pathogen-specific factors may affect multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis (TB) transmission and pathogenesis. To identify demographic and clinical characteristics of MDR TB case clustering and to estimate the effect of specific isoniazid resistance-conferring mutations and strain lineage on genotypic clustering, we conducted a population-based cohort study of all MDR TB cases reported in California from January 1, 2004, through December 31, 2007. Of 8,899 incident culture-positive cases for which drug susceptibility information was available, 141 (2%) were MDR. Of 123 (87%) strains with genotype data, 25 (20%) were aggregated in 8 clusters; 113 (92%) of all MDR TB cases and 21 (84%) of clustered MDR TB cases occurred among foreign-born patients. In multivariate analysis, the katG S315T mutation (odds ratio 11.2, 95% confidence interval 2.2-Yen; p = 0.004), but not strain lineage, was independently associated with case clustering.

Recent studies suggest that M. tuberculosis lineage and host genetics interact to impact how active tuberculosis presents clinically. We determined the phylogenetic lineages of M. tuberculosis isolates from participants enrolled in the Tuberculosis Trials Consortium Study 28, conducted in Brazil, Canada, South Africa, Spain, Uganda and the United States, and secondarily explored the relationship between lineage, clinical presentation and response to treatment. Large sequence polymorphisms and single nucleotide polymorphisms were analyzed to determine lineage and sublineage of isolates. Of 306 isolates genotyped, 246 (80.4%) belonged to the Euro-American lineage, with sublineage 724 predominating at African sites (99/192, 51.5%), and the Euro-American strains other than 724 predominating at non-African sites (89/114, 78.1%). Uneven distribution of lineages across regions limited our ability to discern significant associations, nonetheless, in univariate analyses, Euro-American sublineage 724 was associated with more severe disease at baseline, and along with the East Asian lineage was associated with lower bacteriologic conversion after 8 weeks of treatment. Disease presentation and response to drug treatment varied by lineage, but these associations were no longer statistically significant after adjustment for other variables associated with week-8 culture status.

Tuberculosis caused 20% of all human deaths in the Western world between the seventeenth and nineteenth centuries and remains a cause of high mortality in developing countries. In analogy to other crowd diseases, the origin of human tuberculosis has been associated with the Neolithic Demographic Transition, but recent studies point to a much earlier origin. We analyzed the whole genomes of 259 M. tuberculosis complex (MTBC) strains and used this data set to characterize global diversity and to reconstruct the evolutionary history of this pathogen. Coalescent analyses indicate that MTBC emerged about 70,000 years ago, accompanied migrations of anatomically modern humans out of Africa and expanded as a consequence of increases in human population density during the Neolithic period. This long coevolutionary history is consistent with MTBC displaying characteristics indicative of adaptation to both low and high host densities., Tuberculosis killed one in five adults in Europe and North America between the seventeenth and nineteenth centuries (1) and today remains a cause of high morbidity and mortality in much [...]

Background C-reactive protein (CRP) has shown promise as a triage tool for pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) in adults living with the human immunodeficiency virus. We performed the first assessment of CRP for TB triage in children. Methods Symptomatic children less than 15 years old were prospectively enrolled in Kampala, Uganda. We completed a standard TB evaluation and measured CRP using a point-of-care assay. We determined the sensitivity and specificity of CRP to identify pulmonary TB in children using 10 mg/L and 5 mg/L cut-off points and generated a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to determine alternative cut-offs that could approach the target accuracy for a triage test (≥90% sensitivity and ≥70% specificity). Results We included 332 children (median age 3 years old, interquartile range [IQR]: 1–6). The median CRP level was low at 3.0 mg/L (IQR: 2.5–26.6) but was higher in children with Confirmed TB than in children with Unlikely TB (9.5 mg/L vs. 2.9 mg/L, P -value =.03). At a 10 mg/L cut-off, CRP sensitivity was 50.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 37.0–63.0) among Confirmed TB cases and specificity was 63.3% (95% CI, 54.7–71.3) among children with Unlikely TB. Sensitivity increased to 56.5% (95% CI, 43.3–69.0) at the 5 mg/L cut-off, but specificity decreased to 54.0% (95% CI, 45.3–62.4). The area under the ROC curve was 0.59 (95% CI, 0.51–0.67), and the highest sensitivity achieved was 66.1% at a specificity of 46.8%. Conclusions CRP levels were low in children with pulmonary TB, and CRP was unable to achieve the accuracy targets for a TB triage test. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To describe the molecular epidemiology of tuberculosis (TB)-related deaths in a well-managed program in a low-HIV area, we analyzed data from a cohort of 454 pulmonary TB patients recruited between [...]