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3. The new Italian seismic hazard model (MPS19)

Author

Meletti, C., Marzocchi, W., D'amico, V., Lanzano, G., Luzi, L., Martinelli, F., Pace, B., Rovida, A., Taroni, M., Visini, F., Akinci, A., Anzidei, M., Avallone, A., Azzaro, R., Barani, S., Barberi, G., Barreca, G., Basili, R., Bird, P., Bonini, M., Burrato, P., Busetti, M., Camassi, R., Carafa, M., Cavaliere, A., Cecere, G., Cheloni, D., Chioccarelli, E., Console, R., Corti, G., D'agostino, N., Cin, M., D'ambrosio, C., D’amico, M., D’amico, S., Devoti, R., Esposito, A., Faenza, L., Falcone, G., Felicetta, C., Fracassi, U., Franco, L., Galvani, A., Gasperini, P., Gee, R., Capera, A., Iervolino, I., Kastelic, V., Lai, C., Locati, M., Lolli, B., Maesano, F., Marchesini, A., Mariucci, M., Martelli, L., Massa, M., Metois, M., Monaco, C., Montone, P., Moschetti, M., Murru, M., Pacor, F., Pagani, M., Pasolini, C., Peresan, A., Peruzza, L., Pietrantonio, G., Poli, M., Pondrelli, S., Puglia, R., Rebez, A., Riguzzi, F., Roselli, P., Rotondi, R., Russo, E., Sani, F., Santulin, M., Selvaggi, G., Scafidi, D., Selva, J., Sepe, V., Serpelloni, E., Slejko, D., Spallarossa, D., Stallone, A., Tamaro, A., Tarabusi, G., Tiberti, M., Tuvè, T., Valensise, G., Vallone, R., Vannoli, P., Vannucci, G., Varini, E., Zanferrari, A., Zuccolo, E., Danciu, L., Schorlemmer, D., Bazzurro, P., Giardini, D., Modena, C., Mulargia, F., Seno, S., Group, T., Meletti, C., Marzocchi, W., D'Amico, V., Lanzano, G., Luzi, L., Martinelli, F., Pace, B., Rovida, A., Taroni, M., Visini, F., Selva, Jacopo, Meletti C., Marzocchi W., D'amico V., Lanzano G., Luzi L., Martinelli F., Pace B., Rovida A., Taroni M., Visini F., Akinci A., Anzidei M., Avallone A., Azzaro R., Barani S., Barberi G., Barreca G., Basili R., Bird P., Bonini M., Burrato P., Busetti M., Camassi R., Carafa M.M.C., Cavaliere A., Cecere G., Cheloni D., Chioccarelli E., Console R., Corti G., D'agostino N., Cin M.D., D'ambrosio C., D'amico M., D'amico S., Devoti R., Esposito A., Faenza L., Falcone G., Felicetta C., Fracassi U., Franco L., Galvani A., Gasperini P., Gee R., Capera A.A.G., Iervolino I., Kastelic V., Lai C.G., Locati M., Lolli B., Maesano F.E., Marchesini A., Mariucci M.T., Martelli L., Massa M., Metois M., Monaco C., Montone P., Moschetti M., Murru M., Pacor F., Pagani M., Pasolini C., Peresan A., Peruzza L., Pietrantonio G., Poli M.E., Pondrelli S., Puglia R., Rebez A., Riguzzi F., Roselli P., Rotondi R., Russo E., Sani F., Santulin M., Selvaggi G., Scafidi D., Selva J., Sepe V., Serpelloni E., Slejko D., Spallarossa D., Stallone A., Tamaro A., Tarabusi G., Tiberti M.M., Tuve T., Valensise G., Vallone R., Vannoli P., Vannucci G., Varini E., Zanferrari A., Zuccolo E., Danciu L., Schorlemmer D., Bazzurro P., Giardini D., Modena C., Mulargia F., Seno S., and MPS19 Working Group

Subjects
Peak ground acceleration, Epistemic uncertainty, Computer science, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, computer.software_genre, 01 natural sciences, Interpretation (model theory), Seismic hazard, Set (abstract data type), Range (statistics), Earthquake hazard analysis -- Italy, Ensemble modeling, Uncertainty quantification, Probabilistic framework, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Structure (mathematical logic), Probabilistic methods, Earthquake prediction, Geophysics, Ensemble learning (Machine learning), Probabilistic method, Italy, Probabilities -- Mathematical models, Data mining, computer
Abstract

We describe the main structure and outcomes of the new probabilistic seismic hazard model for Italy, MPS19 [Modello di Pericolosità Sismica, 2019]. Besides to outline the probabilistic framework adopted, the multitude of new data that have been made available after the preparation of the previous MPS04, and the set of earthquake rate and ground motion models used, we give particular emphasis to the main novelties of the modeling and the MPS19 outcomes. Specifically, we (i) introduce a novel approach to estimate and to visualize the epistemic uncertainty over the whole country; (ii) assign weights to each model components (earthquake rate and ground motion models) according to a quantitative testing phase and structured experts’ elicitation sessions; (iii) test (retrospectively) the MPS19 outcomes with the horizontal peak ground acceleration observed in the last decades, and the macroseismic intensities of the last centuries; (iv) introduce a pioneering approach to build MPS19_cluster, which accounts for the effect of earthquakes that have been removed by declustering. Finally, to make the interpretation of MPS19 outcomes easier for a wide range of possible stakeholders, we represent the final result also in terms of probability to exceed 0.15 g in 50 years., peer-reviewed

Published
2021
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4. RETRACE-3D project: A multidisciplinary collaboration to build a crustal model for the 2016-2018 central Italy seismic sequence

Author

Di Bucci, D., Buttinelli, M., D'Ambrogi, C., Scrocca, D., Anzidei, M., Basili, R., Bigi, S., Bignami, C., Bonini, L., Bonomo, R., Burrato, P., Calcaterra, S., Capotorti, F., Cara, P., Castaldo, R., Castenetto, S., Cavinato, G. P., Chiappini, M., Cinti, F., Congi, M. P., De Gori, P., De Martini, P. M., De Novellis, V., Devoti, R., Di Filippo, M., Di Manna, P., Di Nezza, M., Ferri, F., Fracasi, U., Gambino, P., Giuliani, R., Improta, L., Kastelic, V., Maesano, F., Marchetti, M., Marino, M., Mariucci, M. T., Messina, P., Minelli, L., Montone, P., Pepe, S., Petracchini, L., Pignatelli, A., Salvi, I., Sapia, V., Solaro, G., Tiberti, M. M., Tizzani, P., Vallone, R., Vannoli, P., Ventura, R., Villani, F., Di Bucci, D., Buttinelli, M., D'Ambrogi, C., Scrocca, D., Anzidei, M., Basili, R., Bigi, S., Bignami, C., Bonini, L., Bonomo, R., Burrato, P., Calcaterra, S., Capotorti, F., Cara, P., Castaldo, R., Castenetto, S., Cavinato, G. P., Chiappini, M., Cinti, F., Congi, M. P., De Gori, P., De Martini, P. M., De Novellis, V., Devoti, R., Di Filippo, M., Di Manna, P., Di Nezza, M., Ferri, F., Fracasi, U., Gambino, P., Giuliani, R., Improta, L., Kastelic, V., Maesano, F., Marchetti, M., Marino, M., Mariucci, M. T., Messina, P., Minelli, L., Montone, P., Pepe, S., Petracchini, L., Pignatelli, A., Salvi, I., Sapia, V., Solaro, G., Tiberti, M. M., Tizzani, P., Vallone, R., Vannoli, P., Ventura, R., and Villani, F.

Subjects
Central apennines, Earthquake, 3D geological model, Seismogenic faults, Inherited fault, Inherited faults, Central apennine
Abstract

The RETRACE-3D project (centRal italy EarThquakes integRAted Crustal model) focused on the revision of all the available geological and geophysical data in the area interested by the 2016-2018 seismic sequence of central Italy, with the final aim to reconstruct a reliable and consistent 3D geological model of that area. It is based on a collaboration, which was framed into a formal agreement, between Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (the Italian Civil Protection Department), Istituto di Geologia Ambientale e Geoingegneria, and Istituto per il Rilevamento Elettromagnetico of the Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, and Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale. The agreement purpose was to develop a project aimed at the geological and seismotectonic characterisation of the crustal volume hosting that seismic sequence. We present and discuss the approach, methodology and results of the project. The 3D geological model of the study area is developed in detail down to a depth of about 12 km, and extended to the Moho based on available regional-scale information. The model is available on the RETRACE-3D project website (www.retrace3d.it).

Published
2021

8. Partitioning the Ongoing Extension of the Central Apennines (Italy): Fault Slip Rates and Bulk Deformation Rates From Geodetic and Stress Data

Author

Carafa, M. M. C., primary, Galvani, A., additional, Di Naccio, D., additional, Kastelic, V., additional, Di Lorenzo, C., additional, Miccolis, S., additional, Sepe, V., additional, Pietrantonio, G., additional, Gizzi, C., additional, Massucci, A., additional, Valensise, G., additional, and Bird, P., additional

Published
2020
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9. A database of the coseismic effects following the 30 October 2016 Norcia earthquake in Central Italy

Author

Villani, Fabio, Civico, Riccardo, Pucci, Stefano, Pizzimenti, Luca, Nappi, Rosa, De Martini, Paolo Marco, Agosta, F., Alessio, G., Alfonsi, L., Amanti, M., Amoroso, S., Aringoli, D., Auciello, E., Azzaro, R., Baize, S., Bello, S., Benedetti, L., Bertagnini, A., Binda, G., Bisson, M., Blumetti, A.M., Bonadeo, L., Boncio, P., Bornemann, P., Branca, S., Braun, T., Brozzetti, F., Brunori, C.A., Burrato, P., Caciagli, M., Campobasso, C., Carafa, M., Cinti, F.R., Cirillo, D., Comerci, V., Cucci, L., De Ritis, R., Deiana, G., Del Carlo, P., Del Rio, L., Delorme, A., Di Manna, P., Di Naccio, D., Falconi, L., Falcucci, E., Farabollini, P., Faure Walker, J.P., Ferrarini, F., Ferrario, M.F., Ferry, M., Feuillet, N., Fleury, J., Fracassi, U., Frigerio, C., Galluzzo, F., Gambillara, R., Gaudiosi, G., Goodall, H., Gori, S., Gregory, L.C., Guerrieri, L., Hailemikael, S., Hollingsworth, J., Iezzi, F., Invernizzi, C., Jablonská, D., Jacques, E., Jomard, H., Kastelic, V., Klinger, Y., Lavecchia, G., Leclerc, F., Liberi, F., Lisi, A., Livio, F., Lo Sardo, L., Malet, J.P., Mariucci, M.T., Materazzi, M., Maubant, L., Mazzarini, F., McCaffrey, K.J.W., Michetti, A.M., Mildon, Z.K., Montone, P., Moro, M., Nave, R., Odin, M., Pace, B., Paggi, S., Pagliuca, N., Pambianchi, G., Pantosti, D., Patera, A., Pérouse, E., Pezzo, G., Piccardi, L., Pierantoni, P.P., Pignone, M., Pinzi, S., Pistolesi, E., Point, J., Pousse, L., Pozzi, A., Proposito, M., Puglisi, C., Puliti, I., Ricci, T., Ripamonti, L., Rizza, M., Roberts, G.P., Roncoroni, M., Sapia, V., Saroli, M., Sciarra, A., Scotti, O., Skupinski, G., Smedile, A., Soquet, A., Tarabusi, G., Tarquini, S., Terrana, S., Tesson, J., Tondi, E., Valentini, A., Vallone, R., Van der Woerd, J., Vannoli, P., Venuti, A., Vittori, E., Volatili, T., Wedmore, L.N.J., Wilkinson, M., Zambrano, M., Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Sezione di Roma (INGV), Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Sezione di Palermo (INGV), Istituto sull’Inquinamento Atmosferico (CNR-IIA), Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN), Università degli studi 'G. d'Annunzio' Chieti-Pescara [Chieti-Pescara] (Ud'A), Laboratoire Image, Ville, Environnement (LIVE), Université de Strasbourg (UNISTRA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique (LETG - Caen), Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique UMR 6554 (LETG), Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Université d'Angers (UA)-Université de Nantes (UN)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2), Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN), Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (IPGP), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-IPG PARIS-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche, Informatiche e Matematiche [Modena], Università degli Studi di Modena e Reggio Emilia (UNIMORE), Géosciences Montpellier, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université des Antilles (UA), Centre européen de recherche et d'enseignement des géosciences de l'environnement (CEREGE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Collège de France (CdF)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Géoazur (GEOAZUR 7329), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire de la Côte d'Azur, Université Côte d'Azur (UCA)-Université Côte d'Azur (UCA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud]), Institut de physique du globe de Strasbourg (IPGS), Université de Strasbourg (UNISTRA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia – Sezione di Pisa (INGV), Laboratoire de géologie de l'ENS (LGE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Institut des Sciences de la Terre (ISTerre), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-PRES Université de Grenoble-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UR219-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux (IFSTTAR)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF), Italian National agency for new technologies, Energy and sustainable economic development [Frascati] (ENEA), Departimento di Scienze della Terra [Camerino], Università di Camerino (UNICAM), Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA), Dynamique globale et déformation active (IPGS) (IPGS-DGDA), Université de Strasbourg (UNISTRA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Strasbourg (UNISTRA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), National Research Council of Italy | Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Collège de France (CdF (institution))-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Université d'Angers (UA)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Géographie et d'Aménagement Régional de l'Université de Nantes (IGARUN), Université de Nantes (UN)-Université de Nantes (UN)-Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN), Université de Nantes (UN)-Université de Nantes (UN), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (IPG Paris)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Università degli Studi di Modena e Reggio Emilia = University of Modena and Reggio Emilia (UNIMORE), COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) (COMUE UCA)-Université Côte d'Azur (UCA)-COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) (COMUE UCA)-Université Côte d'Azur (UCA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud]), Laboratoire de géologie de l'ENS (LGENS), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux (IFSTTAR)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UR219-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes [2016-2019] (UGA [2016-2019]), Università degli Studi di Camerino = University of Camerino (UNICAM), Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA ), Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes [2016-2019] (UGA [2016-2019]), Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Collège de France (CdF (institution))-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Université d'Angers (UA)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2), Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Géographie et d'Aménagement Régional de l'Université de Nantes (IGARUN), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Université des Antilles (UA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Università degli Studi di Camerino (UNICAM), Puglisi, C., Proposito, M., Hailemikael, S., Falconi, L., Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2), Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Université de Brest (UBO)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE)-Université de Nantes (UN)-Université d'Angers (UA)-Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-IPG PARIS-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire de la Côte d'Azur, Université Côte d'Azur (UCA)-Université Côte d'Azur (UCA), Villani, F., Civico, R., Pucci, S., Pizzimenti, L., Nappi, R., De Martini, P. M., Agosta, F., Alessio, G., Alfonsi, L., Amanti, M., Amoroso, S., Aringoli, D., Auciello, E., Azzaro, R., Baize, S., Bello, S., Benedetti, L., Bertagnini, A., Binda, G., Bisson, M., Blumetti, A. M., Bonadeo, L., Boncio, P., Bornemann, P., Branca, S., Braun, T., Brozzetti, F., Brunori, C. A., Burrato, P., Caciagli, M., Campobasso, C., Carafa, M., Cinti, F. R., Cirillo, D., Comerci, V., Cucci, L., De Ritis, R., Deiana, G., Del Carlo, P., Del Rio, L., Delorme, A., Di Manna, P., Di Naccio, D., Falcucci, E., Farabollini, P., Faure Walker, J. P., Ferrarini, F., Ferrario, M. F., Ferry, M., Feuillet, N., Fleury, J., Fracassi, U., Frigerio, C., Galluzzo, F., Gambillara, R., Gaudiosi, G., Goodall, H., Gori, S., Gregory, L. C., Guerrieri, L., Hollingsworth, J., Iezzi, F., Invernizzi, C., Jablonska, D., Jacques, E., Jomard, H., Kastelic, V., Klinger, Y., Lavecchia, G., Leclerc, F., Liberi, F., Lisi, A., Livio, F., Sardo, L., Malet, J. P., Mariucci, M. T., Materazzi, M., Maubant, L., Mazzarini, F., Mccaffrey, K. J. W., Michetti, A. M., Mildon, Z. K., Montone, P., Moro, M., Nave, R., Odin, M., Pace, B., Paggi, S., Pagliuca, N., Pambianchi, G., Pantosti, D., Patera, A., Perouse, E., Pezzo, G., Piccardi, L., Pierantoni, P. P., Pignone, M., Pinzi, S., Pistolesi, E., Point, J., Pousse, L., Pozzi, A., Puliti, I., Ricci, T., Ripamonti, L., Rizza, M., Roberts, G. P., Roncoroni, M., Sapia, V., Saroli, M., Sciarra, A., Scotti, O., Skupinski, G., Smedile, A., Soquet, A., Tarabusi, G., Tarquini, S., Terrana, S., Tesson, J., Tondi, E., Valentini, A., Vallone, R., Van Der Woerd, J., Vannoli, P., Venuti, A., Vittori, E., Volatili, T., Wedmore, L. N. J., Wilkinson, M., and Zambrano, M.

Subjects
Statistics and Probability, data collection, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, [SDU.STU.GP]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], Library and Information Sciences, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, computer.software_genre, 01 natural sciences, Education, 30 October 2016 Norcia earthquake, Earthquakes, ground deformation process, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, [SDU.STU.TE]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Tectonics, surface faulting hazard, Central Apennines, Database, Landslide, data acquisition system, Extensional definition, Computer Science Applications, 13. Climate action, Homogeneous, Georeference, ground deformation process, data acquisition system, Central Apennines, 30 October 2016 Norcia earthquake, Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty, computer, Relevant information, Geology, Information Systems
Abstract

We provide a database of the coseismic geological surface effects following the Mw 6.5 Norcia earthquake that hit central Italy on 30 October 2016. This was one of the strongest seismic events to occur in Europe in the past thirty years, causing complex surface ruptures over an area of >400 km2. The database originated from the collaboration of several European teams (Open EMERGEO Working Group; about 130 researchers) coordinated by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia. The observations were collected by performing detailed field surveys in the epicentral region in order to describe the geometry and kinematics of surface faulting, and subsequently of landslides and other secondary coseismic effects. The resulting database consists of homogeneous georeferenced records identifying 7323 observation points, each of which contains 18 numeric and string fields of relevant information. This database will impact future earthquake studies focused on modelling of the seismic processes in active extensional settings, updating probabilistic estimates of slip distribution, and assessing the hazard of surface faulting.

Published
2018
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10. Surface ruptures following the 30 October 2016 M w 6.5 Norcia earthquake, central Italy

Author

Civico, R., Pucci, S., Villani, F., Pizzimenti, L., De Martini, P. M., Nappi, R., Agosta, F., Alessio, G., Alfonsi, L., Amanti, M., Amoroso, S., Aringoli, D., Auciello, E., Azzaro, R., Baize, S., Bello, S., Benedetti, L., Bertagnini, A., Binda, G., Bisson, M., Blumetti, A. M., Bonadeo, L., Boncio, P., Bornemann, P., Branca, S., Braun, T., Brozzetti, F., Brunori, C. A., Burrato, P., Caciagli, M., Campobasso, C., Carafa, M., Cinti, F. R., Cirillo, D., Comerci, V., Cucci, L., De Ritis, R., Deiana, G., Del Carlo, P., Del Rio, L., Delorme, A., Di Manna, P., Di Naccio, D., Falconi, L., Falcucci, E., Farabollini, P., Faure Walker, J. P., Ferrarini, F., Ferrario, M. F., Ferry, M., Feuillet, N., Fleury, J., Fracassi, U., Frigerio, C., Galluzzo, F., Gambillara, R., Gaudiosi, G., Goodall, H., Gori, S., Gregory, L. C., Guerrieri, L., Hailemikael, S., Iezzi, F., Invernizzi, C., Jablonská, D., Jacques, E., Jomard, H., Kastelic, V., Klinger, Y., Lavecchia, G., Leclerc, F., Liberi, F., Lisi, A., Livio, F., Lo Sardo, L., Malet, J. P., Mariucci, M. T., Materazzi, M., Mazzarini, F., Mccaffrey, K. J. W., Michetti, A. M., Mildon, Z. K., Montone, P., Moro, M., Nave, R., Odin, M., Pace, B., Paggi, S., Pagliuca, N., Pambianchi, G., Pantosti, D., Patera, A., Pérouse, E., Pezzo, G., Piccardi, L., Pierantoni, P. P., Pignone, M., Pinzi, S., Pistolesi, E., Point, J., Pozzi, A., Proposito, M., Puglisi, C., Puliti, I., Ricci, T., Ripamonti, Licia, Rizza, M., Roberts, G. P., Roncoroni, M., Sapia, V., Saroli, M., Sciarra, A., Scotti, O., Skupinski, G., Smedile, A., Tarabusi, G., Tarquini, S., Terrana, S., Tesson, J., Tondi, E., Valentini, A., Vallone, R., Van der Woerd, J., Vannoli, P., Venuti, A., Vittori, E., Volatili, T., Wedmore, L. N. J., Wilkinson, M., Zambrano, M., Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia [Bologna] ( INGV ), Géosciences Montpellier, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers ( INSU - CNRS ) -Université de Montpellier ( UM ) -Université des Antilles ( UA ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Sezione di Bologna (INGV), Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université des Antilles (UA), Géoazur (GEOAZUR 7329), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire de la Côte d'Azur, Université Côte d'Azur (UCA)-Université Côte d'Azur (UCA), Hailemikael, S., Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Université des Antilles (UA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire de la Côte d'Azur, COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) (COMUE UCA)-Université Côte d'Azur (UCA)-COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) (COMUE UCA)-Université Côte d'Azur (UCA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud]), Institut de physique du globe de Strasbourg (IPGS), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Louis Pasteur - Strasbourg I-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur (UCA)-Université Côte d'Azur (UCA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud]), Institut Terre Environnement Strasbourg (ITES), École Nationale du Génie de l'Eau et de l'Environnement de Strasbourg (ENGEES)-Université de Strasbourg (UNISTRA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Agosta, F., Alessio, G., Alfonsi, L., Amanti, M., Amoroso, S., Aringoli, D., Auciello, E., Azzaro, R., Baize, S., Bello, S., Benedetti, L., Bertagnini, A., Binda, G., Bisson, M., Blumetti, A. M., Bonadeo, L., Boncio, P., Bornemann, P., Branca, S., Braun, T., Brozzetti, F., Brunori, C. A., Burrato, P., Caciagli, M., Campobasso, C., Carafa, M., Cinti, F. R., Cirillo, D., Comerci, V., Cucci, L., De Ritis, R., Deiana, G., Del Carlo, P., Del Rio, L., Delorme, A., Di Manna, P., Di Naccio, D., Falconi, L., Falcucci, E., Farabollini, P., Faure Walker, J. P., Ferrarini, F., Ferrario, M. F., Ferry, M., Feuillet1, N., Fleury, J., Fracassi, U., Frigerio, C., Galluzzo, F., Gambillara, R., Gaudiosi, G., Goodall, H., Gori, S., Gregory, L. C., Guerrieri, L., Iezzi, F., Invernizzi, C., Jablonská, D., Jacques, E., Jomard, H., Kastelic, V., Klinger, Y., Lavecchia, G., Leclerc, F., Liberi, F., Lisi, A., Livio, F., Lo Sard8, L., Malet, J. P., Mariucci, M. T., Materazzi5, M., Mazzarini, F., Mccaffrey, K. J. W., Michett, A. M., Mildon, Z. K., Montone, P., Moro, M., Nave, R., Odin, M., Pace, B., Paggi, S., Pagliuca, N., Pambianchi, G., Pantosti, D., Patera, A., Pérouse, E., Pezzo, G., Piccardi, L., Pierantoni, P. P., Pignone, M., Pinzi, S., Pistolesi, E., Point, J., Pozzi, A., Proposito, M., Puglisi, C., Puliti, I., Ricci, T., Ripamonti, L., Rizza, M., Roberts, G. P., Roncoroni, M., Sapia, V., Saroli, M., Sciarra, A., Scotti, O., Skupinski, G., Smedile, A., Tarabusi, G., Tarquini, S., Terrana, S., Tesson, J., Tondi, E., Valentini, A., Vallone, R., Van der Woerd, J., Vannoli, P., Venuti, A., Vittori, E., Volatili, T., Wedmore, L. N. J., Wilkinson, M., Zambrano, M., Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (IPGP), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (IPG Paris)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
Surface (mathematics), Surface rupture, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, [SDU.STU.GP]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], Field data, Geography, Planning and Development, [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences, Kinematics, Fault (geology), 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, Surface faulting, geological prompt surveys, lcsh:G3180-9980, Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous), coseismic ruptures, normal faulting, 2016–2017 seismic sequence, central Italy, Coseismic rupture, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, lcsh:Maps, [SDU.STU.TE]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Tectonics, Geological prompt survey, 2016-2017 seismic sequence, Geological prompt surveys, Normal faulting, Coseismic ruptures, Central Italy, geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, Oblique case, [ SDU.STU ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences, es, 13. Climate action, Geology, Seismology
Abstract

We present a 1:25,000 scale map of the coseismic surface ruptures following the 30 October 2016 M-w 6.5 Norcia normal-faulting earthquake, central Italy. Detailed rupture mapping is based on almost 11,000 oblique photographs taken from helicopter flights, that has been verified and integrated with field data (>7000 measurements). Thanks to the common efforts of the Open EMERGEO Working Group (130 people, 25 research institutions and universities from Europe), we were able to document a complex surface faulting pattern with a dominant strike of N135 degrees-160 degrees (SW-dipping) and a subordinate strike of N320 degrees-345 degrees (NE-dipping) along about 28km of the active Mt. Vettore-Mt. Bove fault system. Geometric and kinematic characteristics of the rupture were observed and recorded along closely spaced, parallel or subparallel, overlapping or step-like synthetic and antithetic fault splays of the activated fault systems, comprising a total surface rupture length of approximately 46km when all ruptures were considered.

Published
2018

11. Correction: A database of the coseismic effects following the 30 October 2016 Norcia earthquake in central Italy (Scientific Data, (2018) 5, 10.1038/sdata.2018.49)

Author

Villani, F., Civico, R., Pucci, S., Pizzimenti, L., Nappi, R., De Martini, P. M., Agosta, F., Alessio, G., Alfonsi, L., Amanti, M., Amoroso, S., Aringoli, D., Auciello, E., Azzaro, R., Baize, S., Bello, S., Benedetti, L., Bertagnini, A., Binda, G., Bisson, M., Blumetti, A. M., Bonadeo, L., Boncio, P., Bornemann, P., Branca, S., Braun, T., Brozzetti, F., Brunori, C. A., Burrato, P., Caciagli, M., Campobasso, C., Carafa, M., Cinti, F. R., Cirillo, D., Comerci, V., Cucci, L., De Ritis, R., Deiana, G., Del Carlo, P., Del Rio, L., Delorme, A., Di Manna, P., Di Naccio, D., Falconi, L., Falcucci, E., Farabollini, P., Faure Walker, J. P., Ferrarini, F., Ferrario, M. F., Ferry, M., Feuillet, N., Fleury, J., Fracassi, U., Frigerio, C., Galluzzo, F., Gambillara, R., Gaudiosi, G., Goodall, H., Gori, S., Gregory, L. C., Guerrieri, L., Hailemikael, S., Hollingsworth, J., Iezzi, F., Invernizzi, C., Jablonska, D., Jacques, E., Jomard, H., Kastelic, V., Klinger, Y., Lavecchia, G., Leclerc, F., Liberi, F., Lisi, A., Livio, F., Lo Sardo, L., Malet, J. P., Mariucci, M. T., Materazzi, M., Maubant, L., Mazzarini, F., Mccaffrey, K. J. W., Michetti, A. M., Mildon, Z. K., Montone, P., Moro, M., Nave, R., Odin, M., Pace, B., Paggi, S., Pagliuca, N., Pambianchi, G., Pantosti, D., Patera, A., Perouse, E., Pezzo, G., Piccardi, L., Pierantoni, P. P., Pignone, M., Pinzi, S., Pistolesi, E., Point, J., Pousse, L., Pozzi, A., Proposito, M., Puglisi, C., Puliti, I., Ricci, T., Ripamonti, L., Rizza, M., Roberts, G. P., Roncoroni, M., Sapia, V., Saroli, M., Sciarra, A., Scotti, O., Skupinski, G., Smedile, A., Socquet, A., Tarabusi, G., Tarquini, S., Terrana, S., Tesson, J., Tondi, E., Valentini, A., Vallone, R., Van der Woerd, J., Vannoli, P., Venuti, A., Vittori, E., Volatili, T., Wedmore, L. N. J., Wilkinson, M., and Zambrano, M.

Published
2019

14. A new photographic dataset of the coseismic geological effects originated by the Mw5.9 Visso and Mw6.5 Norcia earthquakes (26th and 30th October 2016, Central Italy)

Author

Emergeo Working Group – Cucci, L., Alfonsi, L., Caciagli, M., Pinzi, S., Vallone, R., Alessio, G., Amoroso, S., Azzaro, R., Bertagnini, A., Brunori, C. A., Burrato, P., Carafa, M., Cinti, F. R., Civico, R., Del Carlo, P., De Martini, P. M., De Ritis, R., Di Naccio, D., Falcucci, E., Fracassi, U., Gaudiosi, G., Gori, S., Kastelic, V., Lancia, M., Lo Sardo, L., Mariucci, M. T., Mazzarini, F., Monaco, P., Montone, P., Moro, M., Nappi, R., Nave, R., Pagliuca, N. M., Pantosti, D., Patera, A., Pezzo, G., Pignone, M., Pizzimenti, L., Pucci, S., Ricci, T., Sapia, V., Saroli, M., Sciarra, A., Smedile, A., Vannoli, P., and Villani, F.

Published
2017

16. Testing fault displacement-length scaling relations through analogue modeling in an extensional setting

Author

Bonini, Lorenzo, Basili, R., Burrato, P., Kastelic, V., Toscani, G., Seno, S., Valensise, G., L. Bonini, R. Basili, P. Burrato, V. Kastelic, G.Toscani, S. Seno, G. Valensise, Bonini, Lorenzo, Basili, R., Burrato, P., Kastelic, V., Toscani, G., Seno, S., and Valensise, G.

Subjects
Geology, structural geology, earthquake geology, Geology, earthquake geology, structural geology
Abstract

The scaling relation between displacement and length of faults plays a crucial role in understanding the growth history of individual faults and their possible linkage and reactivation in future ruptures. Displacement-length relations are commonly based on empirical data. The measurement of fault geometric properties, however, is generally affected by large scattering due not only to intrinsic difficulties of making observations in natural cases (outcrop availability, seismic profiles), but also to the variety of geological factors that may affect the rupture patterns. These can be the interaction between the present-day tectonic regime and an inherited structural fabric, or that between a master fault at depth and shallow structural features. As an alternative to field observations, analogue modeling provides an opportunity to investigate the faulting processes in a controlled environment. During the last decade, the ability of scaled models to properly reproduce such geological processes has greatly improved thanks to the introduction of new materials (e.g. wet kaolin) suitable for reproducing brittle deformation in the upper crust and hi-tech monitoring systems (e.g. laser scanner, particle image velocimetry) with the ability of capturing structural details and performing accurate measurements. We use a dedicated apparatus with such properties to gain insights on the evolution of extensional faults through a suite of experiments which includes (a) setups in homogeneous material to test our ability in meeting general criteria related with fault displacement-length parameters; and (b) increasing complexities attained by inserting various pre-existing fault patterns to analyze how shallow mechanical discontinuities affect our ability to characterize a major fault at depth. Our results show that pre-existing faults can either halt or favor fault development and growth depending on their location/orientation with respect to the applied stress field and suggest the reappraisal of natural case studies under a different perspective.

Published
2013

17. Regional geological and instrumental (InSAR) constraints to tectonic deformation and their associated uncertainties: implications in seismic hazard estimates [PART 1]: Crotone, new geologic data on the long-term uplift. Convenzione-Quadro tra Dipartimento della Protezione Civile e Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia. Triennio 2007-09. Convegno annuale dei progetti sismologici, Roma, 19-21 Ottobre 2009

Author

Basili R, Burrato P, Fracassi U, Kastelic V, Tiberti MM, Vannoli P, SOLIGO, Michele, TUCCIMEI, Paola, Basili, R, Burrato, P, Fracassi, U, Kastelic, V, Tiberti, Mm, Vannoli, P, Soligo, Michele, and Tuccimei, Paola

Published
2009

19. Mid-term review results of the ESA STSE Pathfinder CHARMING project (Constraining Seismic Hazard Models with InSAR and GPS)

Author

Merryman Boncori, John Peter, primary, Devoti, Roberto, additional, Visini, Francesco, additional, Carafa, M.M.C., additional, Pezzo, Giuseppe, additional, Kastelic, Vanjia, additional, Fornaro, G., additional, Berardino, Paolo, additional, Atzori, S., additional, D'Amico, V., additional, Kastelic, V., additional, Meletti, C., additional, Pietrantonio, G., additional, Riguzzi, F., additional, Salvi, S., additional, and Fernandez Prieto, D., additional

Published
2015
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23. Rilievi geologici nell'area epicentrale della sequenza sismica dell'Aquilano del 6 aprile 2009. Quaderni di Geofisica

Author

Basili, R., Burrato, P., Cinti, F. R., Civico, R., Cucci, L., D'Addezio, G., De Martini, P. M., Fracassi, U., Gasparini, A., Kastelic, V., Lisi, A., Mariano, S., Mariucci, M. T., Montone, P., Pantosti, D., Patera, A., Pierdominici, S., Pinzi, S., Pucci, S., Smedile, A., Tiberti, M., Vannoli, P., Villani, F., Alfonsi, L., De Ritis, R., Venuti, A., Anzidei, M., Atzori, S., Brunori, C. A., Colini, L., Moro, M., Pignone, M., Sepe, V., Falcucci, E., Galadini, F., Gori, S., Scardia, G., Alessio, G., Aquino, I., Nappi, R., Nave, R., Giaccio, B., Messina, P., Sposato, A., Saroli, Michele, and Fubelli, G.

Subjects
Rilievi geologici, faglia, terremoto aquilano
Published
2009

24. FieLd geological survey in the epicentral area of the Abrazzi (central Italy) seismic sequence of April 6th, 2009

Author

Basili, R., Cinti, R. F., Civico, R., Cucci, L., D'Addezio, G., De Martini, M. P., Fracassi, U., Gasparini, A., Kastelic, V., Lisi, A., Mariano, S., Mariucci, M. T., Montone, P., Pantosti, D., Patera, A., Pierdominici, S., Pinzi, S., Pucci, S., Smedile, A., Tiberti, M., Vannoli, P., Villani, F., Alfonsi, L., De Ritis, R., Venuti, A., Anzidei, M., Atzori, S., Brunori, C. A., Colini, L., Moro, M., Pignone, M., Sepe, V., Falcucci, E., Galadini, F., Gori, S., Scardia, G., Alessio, G., Aquino, I., Nappi, R., Nave, R., Giaccio, B., Messina, P., Sposato, A., Saroli, M., and Fubelli, G.

Subjects
earthquake, human activities
Abstract

The Ml=5.8 (Mw=6.2) earthquake that struck and devastated a broad area in the Abruzzi region of Central Italy produced a large set of surface coseismic deformations. In this work we present the field geological survey performed by the researchers involved in the EmerGeoWorking Group following the mainshock. The activities in the field consisted in the control and the characterization of the surface coseismic deformations mainly observed along previously mapped faults; in addition, a number of local coseismic effects are reported (landslides and secondary fractures) that are not directly associated to tectonic structures. A total of more than 300 sites of observation were surveyed in an area of ~900 km2. A preliminary analysis of our observations indicates that the ruptures reported along the Paganica Fault may represent the surface expression of the fault responsible for the April 6th mainshock, and that the effects observed along the Bazzano and Monticchio-Fossa Faults may reflect the coseismic reactivation of an antithetical structure.

Published
2009

25. Multi-disciplinary investigations of active faults in the Julian Alps, Slovenia

Author

Cunningham, D., Gosar, A., Kastelic, V., Stephen Grebby, and Tansey, K.

Abstract

UK-Slovenian collaborative research connected to EU COST-Action 625 began in 2003 and has involved interdisciplinary research into the current activity, structural architecture and landscape expression of the Ravne and Idrija strike-slip fault systems in NW Slovenia. The Ravne fault may be the best exposed actively propagating strike-slip fault system in Europe and through combined structural fieldwork, earthquake seismology and airborne LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) surveys, a new understanding of the fault’s along-strike segmentation, three dimensional geometry and stepover zone kinematics has been gained. The Idrija Fault in contrast, is poorly exposed, but defines a regional lineament with an intensely brecciated fault core; it may have been responsible for the largest historical earthquake to have ever affected the region. High-resolution LiDAR images recently obtained for both fault systems allow for efficient focussed fieldwork and future work will be devoted to documenting the timing of previous earthquakes and the connectivity and displacement transfer between active faults at the NE corner of the Adria microplate.

Published
2007

27. Earthquake rates inferred from active faults and geodynamics:the case of the External Dinarides.

Author

CARAFA, M. M. C. and KASTELIC, V.

Subjects
*EARTHQUAKES, *GEODYNAMICS, *INDUCED seismicity, *LITHOSPHERE, *ELASTIC modulus
Abstract

The goal of earthquake rate models is to define the number of earthquakes in a given time period above an established magnitude threshold. No earthquake rate models exist for the External Dinarides, although this area is prone to frequent earthquakes that have significant impacts on natural and human environments. In this study, we apply a tectonic/geodynamic approach to build a fault-based and a deformation-based earthquake rate model for the External Dinarides. The main difference between the two models is the inclusion of off-fault seismicity in the deformation-based earthquake rate model. We explore the impact of the moment-balancing uncertainties on the expected number of earthquakes. The results show comparable earthquake rates for both input models. The slip rate, the elastic modulus and the coupled thickness of the seismogenic lithosphere play important role in the variability of earthquake rates, whereas the effects of the corner magnitude and the Gutenberg - Richter а parameter are insignificant. A comparison with the available historical seismic catalogue shows good agreement for MW > 5.8 earthquakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2014
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28. FieLd geological survey in the epicentral area of the Abrazzi (central Italy) seismic sequence of April 6th, 2009 | Rilievi geologici nell'area epicentrale della sequenza sismica dell'Aquilano del 6 aprile 2009

Author

Roberto Basili, Cinti, R. F., Civico, R., Cucci, L., D Addezio, G., Martini, M. P., Fracassi, U., Gasparini, A., Kastelic, V., Lisi, A., Mariano, S., Mariucci, M. T., Montone, P., Pantosti, D., Patera, A., Pierdominici, S., Pinzi, S., Pucci, S., Smedile, A., Tiberti, M., Vannoli, P., Villani, F., Alfonsi, L., Ritis, R., Venuti, A., Anzidei, M., Atzori, S., Brunori, C. A., Colini, L., Moro, M., Pignone, M., Sepe, V., Falcucci, E., Galadini, F., Gori, S., Scardia, G., Alessio, G., Aquino, I., Nappi, R., Nave, R., Giaccio, B., Messina, P., Sposato, A., Saroli, M., and Fubelli, G.

29. FieLd geological survey in the epicentral area of the Abrazzi (central Italy) seismic sequence of April 6th, 2009,Rilievi geologici nell'area epicentrale della sequenza sismica dell'Aquilano del 6 aprile 2009

Author

Basili, R., Cinti, R. F., Civico, R., Cucci, L., D Addezio, G., Martini, M. P., Fracassi, U., Gasparini, A., Kastelic, V., Lisi, A., Mariano, S., Mariucci, M. T., Montone, P., Pantosti, D., Patera, A., Pierdominici, S., Pinzi, S., Pucci, S., Smedile, A., Tiberti, M., Vannoli, P., Villani, F., Alfonsi, L., Ritis, R., Venuti, A., Anzidei, M., Atzori, S., Brunori, C. A., Colini, L., Marco MORO, Pignone, M., Sepe, V., Falcucci, E., Galadini, F., Gori, S., Scardia, G., Alessio, G., Aquino, I., Nappi, R., Nave, R., Giaccio, B., Messina, P., Sposato, A., Saroli, M., and Fubelli, G.

31. Earthquake rupture forecasts for the mps19 seismic hazard model of Italy

Author

Pierfrancesco Burrato, Raffaele Azzaro, Andrea Rovida, Francesco Visini, Davide Scafidi, Gianluca Valensise, Elisa Zuccolo, Federico Sani, Maura Murru, Paola Vannoli, Maria Eliana Poli, Nicola D'Agostino, Giuseppe Falcone, Roberto Basili, Carmelo Monaco, Michela Dal Cin, Andrea Marchesini, Giacomo Corti, Horst Langer, Dario Slejko, Tiziana Tuvè, Ornella Cocina, Bruno Pace, Alessandro Rebez, Matteo Taroni, Jacopo Selva, Vanja Kastelic, Giuseppina Tusa, Peter Bird, Giovanni Barreca, Renata Rotondi, Carlo Meletti, Rodolfo Console, Aybige Akinci, Luca Martelli, Simone Barani, Elisa Varini, Silvia Pondrelli, Alberto Tamaro, Francesco Emanuele Maesano, Carlo G. Lai, Graziella Barberi, Mara Monica Tiberti, Martina Busetti, Michele M. C. Carafa, Marco Bonini, Marco Santulin, Robin Gee, Umberto Fracassi, Daniele Spallarossa, Adriano Zanferrari, Laura Peruzza, Gabriele Tarabusi, V. D'Amico, Warner Marzocchi, Salvatore D'Amico, Visini, F., Pace, B., Meletti, C., Marzocchi, W., Akinci, A., Azzaro, R., Barani, S., Barberi, G., Barreca, G., Basili, R., Bird, P., Bonini, M., Burrato, P., Busetti, M., Carafa, M. M. C., Cocina, O., Console, R., Corti, G., D'Agostino, N., D'Amico, S., D'Amico, V., Cin, M. D., Falcone, G., Fracassi, U., Gee, R., Kastelic, V., Lai, C. G., Langer, H., Maesano, F. E., Marchesini, A., Martelli, L., Monaco, C., Murru, M., Peruzza, L., Poli, M. E., Pondrelli, S., Rebez, A., Rotondi, R., Rovida, A., Sani, F., Santulin, M., Scafidi, D., Selva, J., Slejko, D., Spallarossa, D., Tamaro, A., Tarabusi, G., Taroni, M., Tiberti, M. M., Tusa, G., Tuve, T., Valensise, G., Vannoli, P., Varini, E., Zanferrari, A., and Zuccolo, E.

Subjects
Seismotectonic zone, Smoothed seismicity, Large range, Active fault, Single zone, Induced seismicity, Active faults, Earthquake rupture forecast, Geodesy, PSHA, Seismotectonic zones, Geophysics, Seismic hazard, Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, Earthquake rupture, Geology, Seismology
Abstract

In recent years, new approaches for developing earthquake rupture forecasts (ERFs) have been proposed to be used as an input for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Zone- based approaches with seismicity rates derived from earthquake catalogs are commonly used in many countries as the standard for national seismic hazard models. In Italy, a single zone- based ERF is currently the basis for the official seismic hazard model. In this contribution, we present eleven new ERFs, including five zone-based, two smoothed seismicity-based, two fault- based, and two geodetic-based, used for a new PSH model in Italy. The ERFs were tested against observed seismicity and were subject to an elicitation procedure by a panel of PSHA experts to verify the scientific robustness and consistency of the forecasts with respect to the observations. Tests and elicitation were finalized to weight the ERFs. The results show a good response to the new inputs to observed seismicity in the last few centuries. The entire approach was a first attempt to build a community-based set of ERFs for an Italian PSHA model. The project involved a large number of seismic hazard practitioners, with their knowledge and experience, and the development of different models to capture and explore a large range of epistemic uncertainties in building ERFs, and represents an important step forward for the new national seismic hazard model.

Published
2021

32. Resolution and Precision of Fast Long-Range Terrestrial Photogrammetric Surveying Aimed at Detecting Slope Changes

Author

Arianna Pesci, Giordano Teza, Michele M. C. Carafa, Vanja Kastelic, Pesci, A., Teza, G., Kastelic, V., and Carafa, M.M.C.

Subjects
Spatial resolution, Resolution (electron density), Slope stability, Precision, Central Apennine, Photogrammetry, Range (statistics), Structure from motion, Change detection, Image resolution, Geology, Civil and Structural Engineering, Remote sensing, Structure-from-motion
Abstract

Structure-from-motion (SfM) is currently used for geological-geomorphological purposes under the condition that the modeling is based either on several ground control points (GCPs) well distributed in the scene or on direct georeferencing (DG). In emergency conditions and in presence of active morphodynamic processes, it could be unfeasible to use GCPs or DG. A study aimed at evaluating the quality of the results achievable by means of completely free SfM modeling of images taken from a distance of some hundred meters is shown in this paper. It is based on an experiment with an artificial target and some surveys of a bedrock scarp, where resolution and precision are evaluated as empirical functions of distance and focal length, taking into account the issues related to the scale factor. The problems related to the recognition of localized surface changes by means of multitemporal surveys are also studied. The primary result is that the free approach can really be used in geomorphological and seismotectonical surveying carried out in emergency conditions.

Published
2020

33. Integrating geologic fault data into tsunami hazard studies

Author

Roberto Basili, Jacopo Selva, Mara Monica Tiberti, Stefano Lorito, Fabrizio Romano, Vanja Kastelic, Alessio Piatanesi, Basili, R., Tiberti, M. M., Kastelic, V., Romano, F., Piatanesi, A., Selva, J., and Lorito, S.

Subjects
lcsh:GE1-350, geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, Subduction, lcsh:QE1-996.5, lcsh:Geography. Anthropology. Recreation, Active fault, Fault (geology), Hazard analysis, Structural basin, Hazard, lcsh:TD1-1066, lcsh:Geology, Tectonics, lcsh:G, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Bathymetry, lcsh:Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, lcsh:Environmental sciences, Geology, Seismology
Abstract

We present the realization of a fault-source data set designed to become the starting point in regional-scale tsunami hazard studies. Our approach focuses on the parametric fault characterization in terms of geometry, kinematics, and assessment of activity rates, and includes a systematic classification in six justification levels of epistemic uncertainty related with the existence and behaviour of fault sources. We set up a case study in the central Mediterranean Sea, an area at the intersection of the European, African, and Aegean plates, characterized by a complex and debated tectonic structure and where several tsunamis occurred in the past. Using tsunami scenarios of maximum wave height due to crustal earthquakes (Mw=7) and subduction earthquakes (Mw=7 and Mw=8), we illustrate first-order consequences of critical choices in addressing the seismogenic and tsunamigenic potentials of fault sources. Although tsunamis generated by Mw=8 earthquakes predictably affect the entire basin, the impact of tsunamis generated by Mw=7 earthquakes on either crustal or subduction fault sources can still be strong at many locales. Such scenarios show how the relative location/orientation of faults with respect to target coastlines coupled with bathymetric features suggest avoiding the preselection of fault sources without addressing their possible impact onto hazard analysis results.

Published
2013

34. Prediction of eye color in the Slovenian population using the IrisPlex SNPs.

Author

Kastelic V, Pośpiech E, Draus-Barini J, Branicki W, and Drobnič K

Subjects
Adult, Antigens, Neoplasm genetics, Antiporters genetics, Area Under Curve, DNA genetics, DNA Primers genetics, False Positive Reactions, Female, Guanine Nucleotide Exchange Factors genetics, Humans, Interferon Regulatory Factors genetics, Male, Membrane Transport Proteins genetics, Monophenol Monooxygenase genetics, Predictive Value of Tests, ROC Curve, Reproducibility of Results, Sensitivity and Specificity, Slovenia, Ubiquitin-Protein Ligases, Eye Color genetics, Genotype, Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide, White People genetics
Abstract

Aim: To evaluate the accuracy of eye color prediction based on six IrisPlex single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) in a Slovenian population sample., Methods: Six IrisPlex predictor SNPs (HERC2 - rs12913832, OCA2 - rs1800407, SLC45A2 - rs16891982 and TYR - rs1393350, SLC24A4 - rs12896399, and IRF4 - rs12203592) of 105 individuals were analyzed using single base extension approach and SNaPshot chemistry. The IrisPlex multinomial regression prediction model was used to infer eye color probabilities. The accuracy of the IrisPlex was assessed through the calculation of sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and the area under the receiver characteristic operating curves (AUC)., Results: Blue eye color was observed in 44.7%, brown in 29.6%, and intermediate in 25.7% participants. Prediction accuracy expressed by the AUC was 0.966 for blue, 0.913 for brown, and 0.796 for intermediate eye color. Sensitivity was 93.6% for blue, 58.1% for brown, and 0% for intermediate eye color. Specificity was 93.1% for blue, 89.2% for brown, and 100% for intermediate eye color. PPV was 91.7% for blue and 69.2% for brown color. NPV was 94.7% for blue and 83.5% for brown eye color. These values indicate prediction accuracy comparable to that established in other studies., Conclusion: Blue and brown eye color can be reliably predicted from DNA samples using only six polymorphisms, while intermediate eye color defies prediction, indicating that more research is needed to genetically predict the whole variation of eye color in humans.

Published
2013
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35. A single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) multiplex system: the association of five SNPs with human eye and hair color in the Slovenian population and comparison using a Bayesian network and logistic regression model.

Author

Kastelic V and Drobnic K

Subjects
Adult, Bayes Theorem, DNA genetics, DNA Primers genetics, Female, Genotype, Humans, Male, Membrane Transport Proteins genetics, Multiplex Polymerase Chain Reaction, Phenotype, Receptor, Melanocortin, Type 1 genetics, Slovenia, Eye Color genetics, Genetics, Population, Hair Color genetics, Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide
Abstract

Aim: To analyze two phenotype characteristics--eye and hair color--using single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and evaluate their prediction accuracy in Slovenian population., Methods: Twelve SNPs (OCA2 - rs1667394, rs7170989, rs1800407, rs7495174; HERC2 - rs1129038, rs12913832; MC1R - rs1805005, rs1805008; TYR - rs1393350; SLC45A2 - rs16891982, rs26722; SLC24A5 - rs1426654) were used for the development of a single multiplex assay. The single multiplex assay was based on SNaPshot chemistry and capillary electrophoresis. In order to evaluate the accuracy of the prediction of eye and hair color, we used the logistic regression model and the Bayesian network model, and compared the parameters of both., Results: The new single multiplex assay displayed high levels of genotyping sensitivity with complete profiles generated from as little as 62 pg of DNA. Based on a prior evaluation of all SNPs in a single multiplex, we focused on the five most statistically significant in our population in order to investigate the predictive value. The two prediction models performed reliably without prior ancestry information, and revealed very good accuracy for both eye and hair color. Both models determined the highest predictive value for rs12913832 (P<0.0001), while the other four SNPs (rs1393350, rs1800407, rs1805008, and rs7495174) showed additional association for color prediction., Conclusion: We developed a sensitive and reliable single multiplex genotyping assay. More samples from different populations should be analyzed before this assay could be used as one of the supplemental tools in tracing unknown individuals in more complicated crime investigations.

Published
2012
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36. Validation of SRY marker for forensic casework analysis.

Author

Kastelic V, Budowle B, and Drobnic K

Subjects
DNA isolation & purification, DNA Primers, Electrophoresis, Capillary, Female, Genetic Markers, Humans, Male, Polymerase Chain Reaction, Reproducibility of Results, Tandem Repeat Sequences, DNA Fingerprinting methods, Genes, sry genetics
Abstract

Determining the gender of the source of forensic DNA evidence is based on the amelogenin test. However, at times the assay may not be indicative of gender assignment, because of deletions at the amelogenin site. Previously, we described successful coamplification of a marker residing within the SRY gene with the short tandem repeat markers from two commercially available human identification kits. The study herein addresses the validation of primers for the target SRY gene regarding specificity, sensitivity, and robustness. Among 115 unrelated male Slovenians no null allele was observed. Repeatable and reliable results were obtained from as little as 25 pg of template DNA, indicating a high sensitivity of detection for the assay. No polymerase chain reaction product was observed even at a concentration of 10 ng/microL of template female DNA. Additionally, the male specific marker could be detected in mixed male and female samples down to a ratio of 1:16.

Published
2009
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