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The article discusses the importance of animal husbandry in ensuring food security and maintaining a high quality of life. In the current study, statistical monthly data on animal husbandry in the Udmurt Republic from 2018 to 2023 is analyzed to create models for forecasting key indicators: the average daily milk yield, the number of cows, and the total volume of milk production. The model of the average daily milk yield takes into account seasonal fluctuations, temperature, and time trends, with an average relative error of just 1.55%. The autoregressive model for predicting the number of cattle with a lag of 12 months has shown high accuracy with an average relative approximation error of 0.19%. The econometric model of total milk production takes into account the average daily milk yield and other factors, demonstrating high accuracy in its forecasts. These results are important to support decision-making on the development of animal husbandry and the agricultural sector in general.

The article addresses the issue of road traffic accidents and their impact on population mortality and socio-economic processes in the region. Attention is given to the tasks of accident prediction and the assessment of the severity of their consequences. The dynamics of road accidents and their consequences in Udmurt Republic are analyzed using time series. The research reveals variations in the number of accidents over different time periods and seasonal fluctuations. Econometric models are constructed to predict the number of accidents and the severity of their consequences. These models take into account seasonal components, trends, and autoregressive processes. The forecasts for the number of accidents and their severity enable the development of measures for traffic management and road safety.

Managing production capacity of industrial enterprises is an important element of the strategy for the development of production systems. The relevance of effective decision support methods in managing production capacity especially increases in the current conditions of a long-term decline in investment activity of Russian industrial enterprises and, as a result, a shortage of modern high-tech equipment, which becomes a significant limiting factor in the development of territorially oriented production systems. The article presents approaches to mathematical modeling and optimization of production capacity of industrial enterprises in solving the problem of its expansion under given budget constraints. The proposed mathematical model includes key parameters of the technical and economic planning of production capacity of a technological site and serves as a tool to justify the choice of an acceptable method for its expansion. The multicriteria optimization methods used in the model serve in this case as a means of formalized description and reaching a reasonable compromise based on the required values of the target parameter and budget constraints, as well as preferences of the decision maker. The article contains an example of the numerical implementation of the developed model in the management of production capacity of a machining site; the example illustrates practical applicability of this model and the result of multicriteria optimization from the standpoint of restrained pessimism of the decision maker.

Harrat Lunayyir is one of the most volcanically active recent basaltic fields in western Saudi Arabia. A period of substantial seismic unrest, featuring more than 30,000 local events, occurred in Harrat Lunayyir in April-June 2009. Although this crisis was presumably related to ongoing magma activity, it ended without any surface volcanic activity. We create new tomographic models of P and S velocities (Vpand Vs) and use them to explain the causes of this unrest and the reasons the eruption failed. A large seismic anomaly of high Vp/Vs ratio below 7 km depth coincides with the locations of more than 50 recent cinder cones with ages of older than 100 ka, and is interpreted as a steady-state magma reservoir. We also identify another seismic anomaly at depths below 15 km, which is interpreted as a conduit for fluids and melts from deeper sources. Because the location of this conduit is slightly outside the main reservoir, some of the incoming material was dispersed. As a result, the activation of the crustal reservoir was not sufficiently strong to pierce the rigid basaltic cover and cause an actual eruption during the crisis in 2009. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]