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OBJECTIVES: Oral contraceptives (OC) and menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) contain exogenous sex hormones and are used by millions of women around the world. However, their effect on development of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is still debated and the current literature suggests that they may exert opposite effects on the risk of RA. The present study aimed to estimate the effects of exogenous hormones on development of RA, both during the reproductive lifespan and later in life. METHODS: The association between OC and RA, as well as between MHT and late-onset RA (LORA), was investigated using time-dependent Cox regression modelling in white British women from the UK Biobank (N = 236 602 and N = 102 466, respectively) and replicated in women from all ethnic groups. RESULTS: OC use was associated with a decreased risk of RA in ever-users (hazard ratio [HR]=0.89; 95% CI = 0.82-0.96), as well as in current (HR = 0.81; 0.73-0.91) and former users (HR = 0.92; 0.84 -1.00), compared with never-users. In contrast, MHT use was associated with an increased risk of LORA in ever-users (HR = 1.16; 1.06-1.26) as well as in former users (HR = 1.13; 1.03-1.24) compared with never-users. CONCLUSION: OC use appears to protect against RA, while MHT may increase the risk of LORA. This study provides new insights into the possible inverse effect of exposure to different exogenous sex hormones on the risk of RA.

OBJECTIVE: While the association between obesity and risk of rheumatic disease is well established, the precise causal relation has not been conclusively proved. Here, we estimate the causal effect of body mass index (BMI) on the risk of developing five different rheumatic diseases. METHODS: Linear and nonlinear mendelian randomization (MR) were used to estimate the effect of BMI on risk of rheumatic disease, and sex-specific effects were identified. Analyses were performed in 361,952 participants from the UK Biobank cohort for the five rheumatic diseases: rheumatoid arthritis (N=8,381 cases), osteoarthritis (N=87,430), psoriatic arthropathy (N=933), gout (N=13,638), and inflammatory spondylitis (N=4,328). RESULTS: Using linear MR, we found that one standard deviation higher BMI increases the incidence rate for rheumatoid arthritis (IRR=1.52; 95% CI=1.36-1.69), osteoarthritis (IRR=1.49; 1.43-1.55), psoriatic arthropathy (IRR=1.80; 1.31-2.48), gout (IRR=1.73; 1.56-1.92), and inflammatory spondylitis (IRR=1.34; 1.14-1.57) in all individuals. BMI was found to be a stronger risk factor in women compared to men for psoriatic arthropathy (sex-interaction P=3.3×10-4 ) and gout (P=4.3×10-3 ), and the effect on osteoarthritis was stronger in premenopausal compared to postmenopausal women (P=1.8×10-3 ). Nonlinear effects of BMI were identified for osteoarthritis and gout in men, and for gout in women. The nonlinearity for gout was also more extreme in men compared to women (P=0.03). CONCLUSION: Higher BMI causes an increased risk for rheumatic disease, an effect that is more pronounced in women for both gout and psoriatic arthropathy. The novel sex- and BMI-specific causal effects identified here, give further insight into rheumatic-disease etiology and mark an important step towards personalized medicine.

AIM: Research on the effect of oral contraceptive (OC) use on the risk of depression shows inconsistent findings, especially in adult OC users. One possible reason for this inconsistency is the omission of women who discontinue OCs due to adverse mood effects, leading to healthy user bias. To address this issue, we aim to estimate the risk of depression that is associated with the initiation of OCs as well as the effect of OC use on lifetime risk of depression. METHODS: This is a population-based cohort study based on data from 264,557 women from the UK Biobank. Incidence of depression was addressed via interviews, inpatient hospital or primary care data. The hazard ratio (HR) between OC use and incident depression was estimated by multivariable Cox regression with OC use as a time-varying exposure. To validate causality, we examined familial confounding in 7,354 sibling pairs. RESULTS: We observed that the first 2 years of OC use were associated with a higher rate of depression compared to never users (HR = 1.71, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.55-1.88). Although the risk was not as pronounced beyond the first 2 years, ever OC use was still associated with an increased lifetime risk of depression (HR = 1.05, 95% CI: 1.01-1.09). Previous OC use were associated with a higher rate of depression compared to never users, with adolescent OC users driving the increased hazard (HR = 1.18, 95% CI: 1.12-1.25). No significant association were observed among adult OC users who had previously used OCs (HR = 1.00, 95% CI: 0.95-1.04). Notably, the sibling analysis provided further evidence for a causal effect of OC use on the risk of depression. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the use of OCs, particularly during the first 2 years, increases the risk of depression. Additionally, OC use during adolescence might increase the risk of depression later in life. Our results are consistent with a causal relationship between OC use and depression, as supported by the sibling analys

Obesity is associated with several types of cancer and fat distribution, which differs dramatically between sexes, has been suggested to be an independent risk factor. However, sex-specific effects on cancer risk have rarely been studied. Here we estimate the effects of fat accumulation and distribution on cancer risk in females and males. We performed a prospective study in 442,519 UK Biobank participants, for 19 cancer types and additional histological subtypes, with a mean follow-up time of 13.4 years. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the effect of 14 different adiposity phenotypes on cancer rates, and a 5% false discovery rate was considered statistically significant. Adiposity-related traits are associated with all but three cancer types, and fat accumulation is associated with a larger number of cancers compared to fat distribution. In addition, fat accumulation or distribution exhibit differential effects between sexes on colorectal, esophageal, and liver cancer.

Background: High levels of estrogen are associated with increased risk of breast and endometrial cancer and have been suggested to also play a role in the development of ovarian cancer. Cancerogenic effects of estradiol, the most prominent form of estrogen, have been highlighted as a side effect of estrogen-only menopausal hormone therapy. However, whether high levels of endogenous estrogens, produced within the body, promote cancer development, has not been fully established. Objective: We aimed to examine causal effects of estradiol on breast, endometrial, and ovarian cancer. Methods: Here we performed a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) to estimate the effect of endogenous estradiol on the risk of developing breast, endometrial, and ovarian cancer, using the UK Biobank as well as 3 independent cancer cohorts. Results: Using 3 independent instrumental variables, we showed that higher estradiol levels significantly increase the risk for ovarian cancer (OR = 3.18 [95% CI, 1.47-6.87], P = 0.003). We also identified a nominally significant effect for ER-positive breast cancer (OR = 2.16 [95% CI, 1.09-4.26], P = 0.027). However, we could not establish a clear link to the risk of endometrial cancer (OR = 1.93 [95% CI, 0.77-4.80], P = 0.160). Conclusion: Our results suggest that high estradiol levels promote the development of ovarian and ER-positive breast cancer.

Eosinophils play important roles in the release of cytokine mediators in response to inflammation. Many associations between common genetic variants and eosinophils have already been reported, using single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array data. Here, we have analyzed 200,000 whole-exome sequences (WES) from the UK Biobank cohort and performed gene-based analyses of eosinophil count. We defined five different variant weighting schemes to incorporate information on both deleteriousness and frequency. A total of 220 genes in 55 distinct (>10 Mb apart) genomic regions were found to be associated with eosinophil count, of which seven genes (ALOX15, CSF2RB, IL17RA, IL33, JAK2, S1PR4, and SH2B3) are driven by rare variants, independent of common variants identified in genome-wide association studies. Two additional genes, NPAT and RMI1, have not been associated with eosinophil count before and are considered novel eosinophil loci. These results increase our knowledge about the effect of rare variants on eosinophil count, which can be of great value for further identification of therapeutic targets.

Many circulating proteins are associated with the presence or severity of disease. However, whether these protein biomarkers are causal for disease development is usually unknown. We investigated the causal effect of 21 well-known or exploratory protein biomarkers of inflammation on 18 inflammatory diseases using two-sample Mendelian randomization. We identified six proteins to have causal effects on any of 11 inflammatory diseases (FDR < 0.05, corresponding to P < 1.4 x 10(-3)). IL-12B protects against psoriasis and psoriatic arthropathy, LAP-TGF-beta-1 protects against osteoarthritis, TWEAK protects against asthma, VEGF-A protects against ulcerative colitis, and LT-alpha protects against both type 1 diabetes and rheumatoid arthritis. In contrast, IL-18R1 increases the risk of developing allergy, hay fever, and eczema. Most proteins showed protective effects against development of disease rather than increasing disease risk, which indicates that many disease-related biomarkers are expressed to protect from tissue damage. These proteins represent potential intervention points for disease prevention and treatment.

The ABO gene contains three major alleles that encodes different antigens; A, B, and O, which determine an individual's blood group. Previous studies have primarily focused on identifying associations between ABO blood groups and diseases risk. Here, we sought to test for association between ABO genotypes (OO, OA, AA; OB, BB, and AB) and a large set of common inflammatory and cardiovascular diseases in UK Biobank as well as disease-related protein biomarkers in NSPHS. We first tested for association by conducting a likelihood ratio test, testing whether ABO contributed significantly to the risk for 24 diseases, and 438 plasma proteins. For phenotypes with FDR < 0.05, we tested for pair-wise differences between genetically determined ABO genotypes using logistic or linear regression. Our study confirmed previous findings of a strong association between ABO and cardiovascular disease, identified associations for both type 1 and type 2 diabetes, and provide additional evidence of significant differences between heterozygous and homozygous allele carriers for pulmonary embolism, deep vein thrombosis, but also for von Willebrand factor levels. Furthermore, the results indicated an additive effect between genotypes, even between the two most common A subgroups, A1 and A2. Additionally, we found that ABO contributed significantly to 39 plasma proteins, of which 23 have never been linked to the ABO locus before. These results show the need of incorporating ABO genotype information in the consultation and management of patients at risk, rather than classifying patients into blood groups.

Context Estradiol is the primary female sex hormone and plays an important role for skeletal health in both sexes. Several enzymes are involved in estradiol metabolism, but few genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have been performed to characterize the genetic contribution to variation in estrogen levels. Objective Identify genetic loci affecting estradiol levels and estimate causal effect of estradiol on bone mineral density (BMD). Design We performed GWAS for estradiol in males (n = 147 690) and females (n = 163 985) from UK Biobank. Estradiol was analyzed as a binary phenotype above/below detection limit (175 pmol/L). We further estimated the causal effect of estradiol on BMD using Mendelian randomization. Results We identified 14 independent loci associated (P < 5 × 10−8) with estradiol levels in males, of which 1 (CYP3A7) was genome-wide and 7 nominally (P < 0.05) significant in females. In addition, 1 female-specific locus was identified. Most loci contain functionally relevant genes that have not been discussed in relation to estradiol levels in previous GWAS (eg, SRD5A2, which encodes a steroid 5-alpha reductase that is involved in processing androgens, and UGT3A1 and UGT2B7, which encode enzymes likely to be involved in estradiol elimination). The allele that tags the O blood group at the ABO locus was associated with higher estradiol levels. We identified a causal effect of high estradiol levels on increased BMD in both males (P = 1.58 × 10−11) and females (P = 7.48 × 10−6). Conclusion Our findings further support the importance of the body’s own estrogen to maintain skeletal health in males and in females.

OBJECTIVE: Socioeconomic factors have been suggested to influence the effect of education- and intelligence-associated genetic variants. However, results from previous studies on the interaction between socioeconomic status and education or intelligence have been inconsistent. The authors sought to assess these interactions in the UK Biobank cohort of 500,000 participants. METHODS: The authors assessed the effect of socioeconomic deprivation on education- and intelligence-associated genetic variants by estimating the single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) heritability for fluid intelligence, educational attainment, and years of education in subsets of UK Biobank participants with different degrees of social deprivation, using linkage disequilibrium score regression. They also generated polygenic scores with LDpred and tested for interactions with social deprivation. RESULTS: SNP heritability increased with socioeconomic deprivation for fluid intelligence, educational attainment, and years of education. Polygenic scores were also found to interact with socioeconomic deprivation, where the effects of the scores increased with increasing deprivation for all traits. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that genetics have a larger influence on educational and cognitive outcomes in more socioeconomically deprived U.K. citizens, which has serious implications for equality of opportunity.

Oral contraceptive use has been suggested to influence the risk of breast, ovarian, and endometrial cancer. The purpose of this study is to clarify the time-dependent effects between long-term oral contraceptive use and cancer risk. We performed an observational study in 256,661 women from UK Biobank, born between 1939 and 1970. Information on cancer diagnoses were collected from self-reported data and from national registers until March 2019. Cumulative risk of cancer over the timespan of the study, as measured by the odds ratio (OR), and instantaneous risk, as measured by the hazard ratio (HR), were assessed using Logistic and Cox regression analyses, respectively. The odds were lower among ever users, compared with never users, for ovarian cancer: OR=0.72 (95% CI: 0.65-0.81) and endometrial cancer: OR=0.68 (95% CI: 0.62-0.75), an association that was stronger with longer use (P<0.001). Increased odds were seen for breast cancer in women when limiting the follow-up to 55 years of age: OR=1.10 (95% CI: 1.03-1.17), but not for the full timespan. We only found a higher HR for breast cancer in former users immediately (≤2 years) after discontinued oral contraceptive use (HR=1.55, 95% CI: 1.06-2.28), whereas the protective association for ovarian and endometrial cancer remained significant up to 35 years after last use of oral contraceptives. Given the body of evidence presented in our study, we argue that oral contraceptives can dramatically reduce women's risk of ovarian and endometrial cancer, whereas their effect on lifetime risk of breast cancer is limited.

In this paper we report the current status of a new research program. The primary goal of the "Vanishing and Appearing Sources during a Century of Observations" project is to search for vanishing and appearing sources using existing survey data to find examples of exceptional astrophysical transients. The implications of finding such objects extend from traditional astrophysics fields to the more exotic searches for evidence of technologically advanced civilizations. In this first paper we present new, deeper observations of the tentative candidate discovered by Villarroel et al. in 2016. We then perform the first searches for vanishing objects throughout the sky by comparing 600 million objects from the US Naval Observatory Catalogue (USNO) B1.0 down to a limiting magnitude of similar to 20-21 with the recent Pan-STARRS Data Release-1 (DR1) with a limiting magnitude of similar to 23.4. We find about 150,000 preliminary candidates that do not have any Pan-STARRS counterpart within a 30 '' radius. We show that these objects are redder and have larger proper motions than typical USNO objects. We visually examine the images for a subset of about 24,000 candidates, superseding the 2016 study with a sample 10 times larger. We find about 100 point sources visible in only one epoch in the red band of the USNO, which may be of interest in searches for strong M-dwarf flares, high-redshift supernovae, or other categories of unidentified red transients.

Even though heritability estimates suggest that the risk of asthma, hay fever and eczema is largely due to genetic factors, previous studies have not explained a large part of the genetics behind these diseases. In this GWA study, we include 346 545 Caucasians from the UK Biobank to identify novel loci for asthma, hay fever and eczema and replicate novel loci in three independent cohorts. We further investigate if associated lead SNPs have a significantly larger effect for one disease compared to the other diseases, to highlight possible disease specific effects. We identified 141 loci, of which 41 are novel, to be associated (P ≤ 3x10-8) with asthma, hay fever or eczema, analysed separately or as disease phenotypes that includes the presence of different combinations of these diseases. The largest number of loci were associated with the combined phenotype (asthma/hay fever/eczema). However, as many as 20 loci had a significantly larger effect on hay fever/eczema-only compared to their effects on asthma, while 26 loci exhibited larger effects on asthma compared with their effects on hay fever/eczema. At four of the novel loci, TNFRSF8, MYRF, TSPAN8, and BHMG1, the lead SNPs were in LD (> 0.8) with potentially casual missense variants. Our study shows that a large amount of the genetic contribution is shared between the diseases. Nonetheless, a number of SNPs have a significantly larger effect on one of the phenotypes suggesting that part of the genetic contribution is more phenotype specific.

In many species, the offspring of related parents suffer reduced reproductive success, a phenomenon known as inbreeding depression. In humans, the importance of this effect has remained unclear, partly because reproduction between close relatives is both rare and frequently associated with confounding social factors. Here, using genomic inbreeding coefficients (F-ROH) for >1.4 million individuals, we show that F-ROH is significantly associated (p < 0.0005) with apparently deleterious changes in 32 out of 100 traits analysed. These changes are associated with runs of homozygosity (ROH), but not with common variant homozygosity, suggesting that genetic variants associated with inbreeding depression are predominantly rare. The effect on fertility is striking: F-ROH equivalent to the offspring of first cousins is associated with a 55% decrease [95% CI 44-66%] in the odds of having children. Finally, the effects of F-ROH are confirmed within full-sibling pairs, where the variation in F-ROH is independent of all environmental confounding., For complete list of authors see http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-12283-6