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Mean annual temperatures in the Arctic and subarctic have increased in recent decades, increasing the number of permafrost hazards. Retrogressive thaw slumps (RTSs), triggered by the thawing of ground ice in permafrost soil, have become more common in the Arctic. Many studies report an increase in RTS activity on a local or regional scale. In this study, the primary goals are to: (i) examine the spatial patterns of the RTS occurrences across the circumpolar permafrost region, (ii) assess the environmental factors associated with their occurrence and (iii) create the first susceptibility map for RTS occurrence across the Northern Hemisphere. Based on our results, we predicted high RTS susceptibility in the continuous permafrost regions above the 60th latitude, especially in northern Alaska, north‐western Canada, the Yamal Peninsula, eastern Russia and the Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau. The model indicated that air temperature and soil properties are the most critical environmental factors for the occurrence of RTSs on a circumpolar scale. Especially, the climatic conditions of thaw season were highlighted. This study provided new insights into the circumpolar susceptibility of ice‐rich permafrost soils to rapid permafrost‐related hazards like RTSs and the associated impacts on landscape evolution, infrastructure, hydrology and carbon fluxes that contribute to global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic climate change threatens northern permafrost environments. This compromises the existence of permafrost landforms, such as palsas and peat plateaus, which have been assessed to be critically endangered habitats. In this study, we integrated geospatial datasets and statistical methods to model the suitable environments for palsas and peat plateaus across the Northern Hemisphere permafrost region. The models were calibrated using data from years 1950–2000. The effects of climate change on the suitable environments for the landforms were assessed by using low-, moderate-, and high-emissions scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway climate scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, respectively) for two periods (2041–2060 and 2061–2080). Hotspots for palsa and peat plateau environments occurred in northern Europe, western Siberia, and subarctic Canada. Climate change was predicted to cause an almost complete loss (decrease of 98.2 %) of suitable environmental spaces under the high-emissions scenario by 2061–2080, while under low- and moderate-emissions scenarios the predicted loss was 76.3 % and 89.3 % respectively. Our modeling results are in line with previously published thermokarst data pointing out areas of recent degradation of palsa and peat plateau environments. Our results provide new insights into the distribution of the permafrost landforms in less studied areas such as central and eastern Siberia. In addition, the predictions provide new understanding of the changing geoecological conditions of the circumpolar region with important implications for greenhouse gas emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ground ice content of the Arctic soils largely dictates the effects of climate change-induced permafrost degradation and top ground destabilization. The current circumarctic information on ground ice content is overly coarse for many key applications, including assessments of hazards to Arctic infrastructure, while detailed data are restricted to very few regions. This study aims to address these gaps by presenting spatially comprehensive data on pore and segregated ground ice content across the Northern Hemisphere permafrost region at a 1-km resolution. First, ground ice content datasets (n=437 and 380 1- km grid cells for volumetric and gravimetric ice content, respectively) were compiled from field observations over the permafrost region. Spatial estimates of ground ice content in the near-surface permafrost north of the 30th parallel north were then produced by relating observed ground ice content to physically relevant environmental data layers of climate, soil, topography, and vegetation properties using a statistical modelling framework. The produced data show that ground ice content varies substantially across the permafrost region. The highest ice contents are found on peat-dominated Arctic lowlands and along major river basins. Low ice contents are associated with mountainous areas and many sporadic and isolated permafrost regions. The modelling yields relatively small prediction errors (a mean absolute error of 13.6 % volumetric ice content) over evaluation data and broadly congruent spatial distributions with earlier regional-scale studies. The presented data allow the consideration of ground ice content in various geomorphological, ecological, and environmental impact assessment applications at a scale that is more relevant than previous products. The produced ground ice data are available in the supplement for this study and at Zenodo [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The anthropogenic climate change threatens northern permafrost environments. This compromises the existence of permafrost landforms, such as palsas and peat plateaus, which have been assessed to be critically endangered habitats. In this study, for the first time we integrated geospatial datasets and statistical methods, to model the distribution of palsas and 10 peat plateaus across the Northern Hemisphere permafrost region. The models were calibrated using data from years 1950- 2000. The effects of climate change on the future distribution of palsas were assessed by using moderate and high emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways; RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) for two periods (2041-2060 and 2061-2080). Hotspots for palsas and peat plateaus occurred in Northern Europe, Western Siberia, and subarctic Canada. Climate change was predicted to cause an almost complete loss (-98.2 %) of suitable environmental spaces under a high 15 emissions scenario by 2061-2080, while under a moderate emissions scenario 89.3 % were predicted to disappear. The comparison with previously published thermokarst data supported our findings regarding the recent degradation of palsa and peat plateau environments. Our results fill the knowledge gaps in the distribution of the permafrost landforms in less studied areas such as Central and Eastern Siberia. In addition, the projections provide insights into the changing geoecological conditions of the circumpolar region with important implications for greenhouse gas emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monitoring of the thermal state of permafrost is important in environmental science and engineering applications. However, such data are generally unavailable mainly due to the lack of ground observations and the uncertainty of traditional physical models. This study produces novel permafrost datasets for the Northern Hemisphere (NH), including predictions of the mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) at the zero annual amplitude depth and active layer thickness (ALT) with a 1- km resolution for the period of 2000–2016, as well as estimates of the probability of permafrost occurrence and permafrost zonation based on hydrothermal conditions. These datasets integrate unprecedentedly large amounts of field data (1,002 boreholes for MAGT and 452 sites for ALT) and multisource geospatial data, especially remote sensing data, using statistical learning modelling with an ensemble strategy. Thus, these data are more accurate than those of previous circumpolar maps (bias=0.02±0.16 °C, RMSE=1.32±0.13 °C for MAGT; bias=2.71±16.46 cm, RMSE=86.93±19.61 cm for ALT). The datasets suggest that the areal extent of permafrost (MAGT≤0 °C) in the NH, excluding glaciers and lakes, is approximately 15.03 (13.84–19.29) ×106 km², and the areal extent of permafrost regions (permafrost probability>0) is approximately 20.14×106 km². The areal fractions of humid, semiarid/subhumid, and arid permafrost regions are 51.84%, 44.83%, and 3.33%, respectively. The areal fractions of cold (≤-3.0 °C), cool (-3.0 °C to -1.5 °C), and warm (>-1.5 °C) permafrost regions are 37.93%, 14.35%, and 47.72%, respectively. These new datasets based on the most comprehensive field data to date contribute to an updated understanding of the thermal state and zonation of permafrost in the NH. They are potentially useful for various fields, such as in climatology, hydrology, ecology, agriculture, public health, and engineering planning. As a baseline, these datasets are also of great importance for evaluating future changes in MAGT, ALT, permafrost extent, and other spatial features of permafrost in the NH. All of the datasets are published through the National Tibetan Plateau Data Center (TPDC), and the link is https://data.tpdc.ac.cn/en/data/5093d9ff-a5fc-4f10-a53f-c01e7b781368 or https://doi.org/10.11888/Geocry.tpdc.271190 (Ran et al., 2021b). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]