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BackgroundTo evaluate whether circulating proteins are associated with survival after lung cancer diagnosis, and whether they can improve prediction of prognosis.MethodsWe measured up to 1159 proteins in blood samples from 708 participants in 6 cohorts. Samples were collected within 3 years prior to lung cancer diagnosis. We used Cox proportional hazards models to identify proteins associated with overall mortality after lung cancer diagnosis. To evaluate model performance, we used a round-robin approach in which models were fit in 5 cohorts and evaluated in the 6th cohort. Specifically, we fit a model including 5 proteins and clinical parameters and compared its performance with clinical parameters only.FindingsThere were 86 proteins nominally associated with mortality (p < 0.05), but only CDCP1 remained statistically significant after accounting for multiple testing (hazard ratio per standard deviation: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.10–1.30, unadjusted p = 0.00004). The external C-index for the protein-based model was 0.63 (95% CI: 0.61–0.66), compared with 0.62 (95% CI: 0.59–0.64) for the model with clinical parameters only. Inclusion of proteins did not provide a statistically significant improvement in discrimination (C-index difference: 0.015, 95% CI: −0.003 to 0.035).InterpretationBlood proteins measured within 3 years prior to lung cancer diagnosis were not strongly associated with lung cancer survival, nor did they importantly improve prediction of prognosis beyond clinical information.FundingNo explicit funding for this study. Authors and data collection supported by the US National Cancer Institute (U19CA203654), INCA (France, 2019-1-TABAC-01), Cancer Research Foundation of Northern Sweden (AMP19-962), and Swedish Department of Health Ministry. Background: To evaluate whether circulating proteins are associated with survival after lung cancer diagnosis, and whether they can improve prediction of prognosis. Methods: We measured up to 1159 proteins in blood samples from 708 participants in 6 cohorts. Samples were collected within 3 years prior to lung cancer diagnosis. We used Cox proportional hazards models to identify proteins associated with overall mortality after lung cancer diagnosis. To evaluate model performance, we used a round-robin approach in which models were fit in 5 cohorts and evaluated in the 6th cohort. Specifically, we fit a model including 5 proteins and clinical parameters and compared its performance with clinical parameters only. Findings: There were 86 proteins nominally associated with mortality (p < 0.05), but only CDCP1 remained statistically significant after accounting for multiple testing (hazard ratio per standard deviation: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.10–1.30, unadjusted p = 0.00004). The external C-index for the protein-based model was 0.63 (95% CI: 0.61–0.66), compared with 0.62 (95% CI: 0.59–0.64) for the model with clinical parameters only. Inclusion of proteins did not provide a statistically significant improvement in discrimination (C-index difference: 0.015, 95% CI: −0.003 to 0.035). Interpretation: Blood proteins measured within 3 years prior to lung cancer diagnosis were not strongly associated with lung cancer survival, nor did they importantly improve prediction of prognosis beyond clinical information. Funding: No explicit funding for this study. Authors and data collection supported by the US National Cancer Institute ( U19CA203654), INCA (France, 2019-1-TABAC-01), Cancer Research Foundation of Northern Sweden ( AMP19-962), and Swedish Department of Health Ministry.

Background: Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death worldwide. We explored the relationship between socioeconomic status and lung cancer incidence across world regions, using educational level as a proxy for socioeconomic status. Methods: We analyzed the harmonized database of the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium (LC3). The current study included data from 18 prospective cohorts from 15 countries in the US, Europe, Asia, and Australia. Separately for participants who never or currently/formerly smoked, we estimated the association between educational level and incident lung cancer using Cox proportional hazards models. Information on education was harmonized using the International Standard Classification of Education and then modeled as an ordinal variable in 4 categories. Models were adjusted for age, sex, and for participants who currently/formerly smoked, smoking duration, cigarettes per day, and time since cessation. Results: Among 2.6 million participants from 15 countries, 62,645 developed lung cancer during follow-up (median follow-up = 12.6 years). Among current/former smokers, increased educational level was associated with decreased lung cancer incidence in most cohorts after adjustment for age, sex, and detailed smoking information, with HRs ranging from 0.77 (95%CI: 0.42-1.41) per 1-unit increase in educational level in the Iranian Golestan Cohort Study to 1.02 (95%CI: 0.95-1.09) in the Australian Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. When grouping by world region, the association between education and lung cancer incidence among currently/formerly smoking participants was similar for the US (HRpooled=0.88, 95%CI: 0.87-0.89), Europe (HRpooled=0.89, 95%CI: 0.88-0.91), and Asia (HRpooled=0.91, 95%CI: 0.86-0.96), but attenuated in the Australian cohort (HR=1.02, 95%CI: 0.95-1.09). Among never smokers, after adjustment for age and sex, there was no statistically significant association between educational level and lung cancer incidence (p-trend>0.05 in all cohorts), with the exception of the US Southern Community Cohort Study, which comprises primarily African-Americans and showed a HR of 0.75 (95%CI: 0.62-0.90). Conclusion: Among currently and formerly smoking individuals, higher educational level showed a strikingly consistent decreased risk of incident lung cancer across cohorts from 4 continents, after detailed adjustment for smoking. In contrast, among people who never smoked, there was no association between education and lung cancer incidence in any cohort, with the exception of the Southern Community Cohort Study. Further research is needed to clarify the mechanisms, either related or unrelated to smoking, that contribute to the association between education and lung cancer risk. Citation Format: Justina U. Onwuka, Hana Zahed, Xiaoshuang Feng, Karine Alcala, Mattias Johansson, Hilary A. Robbins, Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium. Socioeconomic status and lung cancer incidence: An analysis of data from 15 countries in the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2023; Part 1 (Regular and Invited Abstracts); 2023 Apr 14-19; Orlando, FL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2023;83(7_Suppl):Abstract nr 1950.

The Integrative Analysis of Lung Cancer Etiology and Risk (INTEGRAL) program is an NCI-funded initiative with an objective to develop tools to optimize lung cancer screening. Here, we describe the rationale and design for the Risk Biomarker and Nodule Malignancy projects within INTEGRAL. The overarching goal of these projects is to systematically investigate circulating protein markers to include on a panel for use (i) pre-LDCT, to identify people likely to benefit from screening, and (ii) post-LDCT, to differentiate benign versus malignant nodules. To identify informative proteins, the Risk Biomarker project measured 1,161 proteins in a nested-case control study within 2 prospective cohorts (n=252 lung cancer cases and 252 controls) and replicated associations for a subset of proteins in 4 cohorts (n=479 cases and 479 controls). Eligible participants had any history of smoking and cases were diagnosed within 3 years of blood draw. The Nodule Malignancy project measured 1,077 proteins among participants with a heavy smoking history within 4 LDCT screening studies (n=425 cases within 5 years of blood draw, 398 benign-nodule controls, and 430 nodule-free controls). The INTEGRAL panel will enable absolute quantification of 21 proteins. We will evaluate its lung cancer discriminative performance in the Risk Biomarker project using a case-cohort study including 14 cohorts (n=1,696 cases and 2,926 subcohort representatives), and in the Nodule Malignancy project within 5 LDCT screening studies (n=675 cases, 648 benign-nodule controls, and 680 nodule-free controls). Future progress to advance lung cancer early detection biomarkers will require carefully designed validation, translational, and comparative studies.

Background The National Health Service England (NHS) classifies individuals as eligible for lung cancer screening using two risk prediction models, PLCOm2012 and Liverpool Lung Project-v2 (LLPv2). However, no study has compared the performance of lung cancer risk models in the UK. Methods We analysed current and former smokers aged 40–80 years in the UK Biobank (N = 217,199), EPIC-UK (N = 30,813), and Generations Study (N = 25,777). We quantified model calibration (ratio of expected to observed cases, E/O) and discrimination (AUC). Results Risk discrimination in UK Biobank was best for the Lung Cancer Death Risk Assessment Tool (LCDRAT, AUC = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.81–0.84), followed by the LCRAT (AUC = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.79–0.82) and the Bach model (AUC = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.79–0.81). Results were similar in EPIC-UK and the Generations Study. All models overestimated risk in all cohorts, with E/O in UK Biobank ranging from 1.20 for LLPv3 (95% CI = 1.14–1.27) to 2.16 for LLPv2 (95% CI = 2.05–2.28). Overestimation increased with area-level socioeconomic status. In the combined cohorts, USPSTF 2013 criteria classified 50.7% of future cases as screening eligible. The LCDRAT and LCRAT identified 60.9%, followed by PLCOm2012 (58.3%), Bach (58.0%), LLPv3 (56.6%), and LLPv2 (53.7%). Conclusion In UK cohorts, the ability of risk prediction models to classify future lung cancer cases as eligible for screening was best for LCDRAT/LCRAT, very good for PLCOm2012, and lowest for LLPv2. Our results highlight the importance of validating prediction tools in specific countries.

Background Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma (MPM) is an aggressive disease related to asbestos exposure, with no effective therapeutic options. Methods We undertook unsupervised analyses of RNA-sequencing data of 284 MPMs, with no assumption of discreteness. Using immunohistochemistry, we performed an orthogonal validation on a subset of 103 samples and a biological replication in an independent series of 77 samples. Findings A continuum of molecular profiles explained the prognosis of the disease better than any discrete model. The immune and vascular pathways were the major sources of molecular variation, with strong differences in the expression of immune checkpoints and pro-angiogenic genes; the extrema of this continuum had specific molecular profiles: a “hot” bad-prognosis profile, with high lymphocyte infiltration and high expression of immune checkpoints and pro-angiogenic genes; a “cold” bad-prognosis profile, with low lymphocyte infiltration and high expression of pro-angiogenic genes; and a “VEGFR2+/VISTA+” better-prognosis profile, with high expression of immune checkpoint VISTA and pro-angiogenic gene VEGFR2. We validated the gene expression levels at the protein level for a subset of five selected genes belonging to the immune and vascular pathways (CD8A, PDL1, VEGFR3, VEGFR2, and VISTA), in the validation series, and replicated the molecular profiles as well as their prognostic value in the replication series. Interpretation The prognosis of MPM is best explained by a continuous model, which extremes show specific expression patterns of genes involved in angiogenesis and immune response.

Systemic inflammation markers have been linked to increased cancer risk and mortality in a number of studies. However, few studies have estimated pre-diagnostic associations of systemic inflammation markers and cancer risk. Such markers could serve as biomarkers of cancer risk and aid in earlier identification of the disease. This study estimated associations between pre-diagnostic systemic inflammation markers and cancer risk in the prospective UK Biobank cohort of approximately 440,000 participants recruited between 2006 and 2010. We assessed associations between four immune-related markers based on blood cell counts: systemic immune-inflammation index (SII), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR), and risk for 17 cancer sites by estimating hazard ratios (HR) using flexible parametric survival models. We observed positive associations with risk for seven out of 17 cancers with SII, NLR, PLR, and negative associations with LMR. The strongest associations were observed for SII for colorectal and lung cancer risk, with associations increasing in magnitude for cases diagnosed within one year of recruitment. For instance, the HR for colorectal cancer per standard deviation increment in SII was estimated at 1.09 (95% CI 1.02–1.16) in blood drawn five years prior to diagnosis and 1.50 (95% CI 1.24–1.80) in blood drawn one month prior to diagnosis. We observed associations between systemic inflammation markers and risk for several cancers. The increase in risk the last year prior to diagnosis may reflect a systemic immune response to an already present, yet clinically undetected cancer. Blood cell ratios could serve as biomarkers of cancer incidence risk with potential for early identification of disease in the last year prior to clinical diagnosis. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10654-021-00752-6.

Cell-mediated immune suppression may play an important role in lung carcinogenesis. We investigated the associations for circulating levels of tryptophan, kynurenine, kynurenine:tryptophan ratio (KTR), quinolinic acid (QA) and neopterin as markers of immune regulation and inflammation with lung cancer risk in 5,364 smoking-matched case-control pairs from 20 prospective cohorts included in the international Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium. All biomarkers were quantified by mass spectrometry-based methods in serum/plasma samples collected on average 6 years before lung cancer diagnosis. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for lung cancer associated with individual biomarkers were calculated using conditional logistic regression with adjustment for circulating cotinine. Compared to the lowest quintile, the highest quintiles of kynurenine, KTR, QA and neopterin were associated with a 20-30% higher risk, and tryptophan with a 15% lower risk of lung cancer (all ptrend < 0.05). The strongest associations were seen for current smokers, where the adjusted ORs (95% CIs) of lung cancer for the highest quintile of KTR, QA and neopterin were 1.42 (1.15-1.75), 1.42 (1.14-1.76) and 1.45 (1.13-1.86), respectively. A stronger association was also seen for KTR and QA with risk of lung squamous cell carcinoma followed by adenocarcinoma, and for lung cancer diagnosed within the first 2 years after blood draw. This study demonstrated that components of the tryptophan-kynurenine pathway with immunomodulatory effects are associated with risk of lung cancer overall, especially for current smokers. Further research is needed to evaluate the role of these biomarkers in lung carcinogenesis and progression.