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This study presents an application based on UAS optical data for mapping at very high spatial resolution the ballistic projectiles erupted during an explosive volcanic eruption. The novelty consists in the development of a GIS-based automate procedure that, elaborating high spatial resolution UAV optical imagery (RGB) acquired within few days from the explosive event, is able to reproduce the boundary of each ballistic projectile as georeferenced polygon feature. This procedure, applied for the first time at Stromboli volcano (Aeolian Archipelago, Italy), has reconstructed in 2D digital format the shape of the ballistic spatter clasts emplaced on the East flank of the volcano during the paroxysm of the 3rd July, 2019. The dimensions of the clasts, reproduced as polygon features stored in WGS 84 UTM 33 metric coordinates, range from 0.03 m2 (16 cm x 16 cm) to 4.23 m2 (~2 m x 2 m). Respect to the classic field survey, the application here presented is able to generate, in efficient and rapid way, a large amount of data and information on ballistic deposits, covering also the areas inaccessible and/or dangerous as particularly affected by ballistic fallout. Such application allowed to better understand the dynamic of ballistics emplacement, providing a useful contribution to volcanic hazard mitigation.

Over the last decade, field investigations, laboratory experiments, geophysical exploration and petrological, geochemical and numerical modelling have provided insight into the mechanisms of phreatic and hydrothermal eruptions. These eruptions are driven by sudden flashing of ground- or hydrothermal water to steam and are strongly influenced by the interaction of host rock and hydrothermal system. Aquifers hosted in volcanic edifices, calderas and rift environments can be primed for instability by alteration processes affecting rock permeability and/or strength, while magmatic fluid injection(s), earthquakes or other subtle triggers can promote explosive failure. Gas emission, ground deformation and seismicity may provide short- to medium-term forerunner signals of these eruptions, yet a definition of universal precursors remains a key challenge. Looking forward in the next 10 years, improved warning and hazard assessment will require integration of field and experimental data with models combining case studies, as well as development of new monitoring methods integrated by machine learning approaches.

Summary Aquifers are poroelastic bodies that respond to strain by changes in pore pressure. Crustal deformation due to volcanic processes induces pore pressure variations that are mirrored in well water levels. Here, we investigate water level changes in the Belham valley on Montserrat over the course of 2 yr (2004–2006). Using finite element analysis, we simulate crustal deformation due to different volcanic strain sources and the dynamic poroelastic aquifer response. While some additional hydrological drivers cannot be excluded, we suggest that a poroelastic strain response of the aquifer system in the Belham valley is a possible explanation for the observed water level changes. According to our simulations, the shallow Belham aquifer responds to a steadily increasing sediment load due to repeated lahar sedimentation in the valley with rising aquifer pressures. A wholesale dome collapse in May 2006 on the other hand induced dilatational strain and thereby a short-term water level drop in a deeper-seated aquifer, which caused groundwater leakage from the Belham aquifer and thereby induced a delayed water level fall in the wells. The system thus responded to both gradual and rapid transient strain associated with the eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano (Montserrat). This case study gives field evidence for theoretical predictions on volcanic drivers behind hydrological transients, demonstrating the potential of hydrological data for volcano monitoring. Interrogation of such data can provide valuable constraints on stress evolution in volcanic systems and therefore complement other monitoring systems. The presented models and inferred results are conceptually applicable to volcanic areas worldwide.

Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location and timing of potentially damaging events, these systems rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected amount and distribution of physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services or financial loss. Complementing early warning systems with impact forecasts has a two‐fold advantage: it would provide decision makers with richer information to take informed decisions about emergency measures, and focus the attention of different disciplines on a common target. This would allow capitalizing on synergies between different disciplines and boosting the development of multi‐hazard early warning systems. This review discusses the state‐of‐the‐art in impact forecasting for a wide range of natural hazards. We outline the added value of impact‐based warnings compared to hazard forecasting for the emergency phase, indicate challenges and pitfalls, and synthesize the review results across hazard types most relevant for Europe. Plain language summary Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties and livelihood. While such systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location and timing of potentially damaging events, they rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services or financial loss. Extending hazard forecast systems to include impact estimates promises many benefits for the emergency phase, for instance, for organising evacuations. We review and compare the state‐of‐the‐art of impact forcasting across a wide range of natural hazards, and outline opportunities and key challenges for research and development of impact forecasting.

Stromboli Volcano was very active in the summer of 2019: Two paroxysms dramatically changed the summit craters of the volcano on July 3 and August 28. The first intense paroxysmal eruptive sequence involved both the North and the Central-South (C-S) crater areas and has generated an eruptive plume rising 4 km above the summit (924 m a.s.l.) while the incandescent material set fire to vegetation on the flanks of the volcano. Volcanic products from the laterally directed explosions and from the collapse of the external crater terrace generated two pyroclastic flows that travelled down the Sciara del Fuoco (SdF) and for several hundred of meters out to sea. Between July 3 and August 28, the activity was characterised by lava flows in the Southern sector of the SdF and by very intense Strombolian activity at a set of small scoria cones that grew around the vents, particularly in the N crater area. The second paroxysmal eruption occurred on August 28 again involving the two crater areas and producing an eruptive column that rose 4 km above the summit. Material from the eruption and from the collapse of the rim of the C-S area contributed to the generation of a pyroclastic flow that travelled down the SdF and out to sea. Important morphological variations to the crater terrace were evident after the two paroxysms.We used UAVs to monitor morpho-structural changes of the Stromboli volcano following the paroxysmal eruptions; in particular, five high-resolution UAV survey campaigns have been performed since May 2019. The aerial images were acquired using two different UAVs, a DJI Mavic 2 Pro and a Wingcopter. Using Structure-from-Motion (SfM) techniques we generated DEMs (Digital Elevation Model) and orthoimages with a resolution ranging between 0.2 and 0.5 m. An additional 1 m-resolution DEM was extracted from available tri-stereo Pleiades satellite imagery and chosen as pre-paroxysm surface. Using the orthoimages it was possible to map the distribution of eruption products and determine the morpho-structural changes. Furthermore, the topographic approach (subtraction between two different surfaces DEMs) with a cut-and-fill procedure was chosen to calculate the volume gain (in the southern sector of the SdF) and loss (in the crater areas).This work demonstrates the usefulness of the combined use of UAVs and SfM techniques to map volcanic products, to highlight morphological changes and perform volume estimations. The data collected during these field efforts and the temporal comparisons of the DEMs represent a fundamental contribution to both volcanic hazard assessment and risk mitigation, and can be used to support civil protection operations.

Hydrothermal systems hosted by submarine arc volcanoes commonly include a large component of magmatic fluid. The high Cu-Au contents and strongly acidic fluids in these systems are similar to those that formed in the shallow parts of some porphyry copper and epithermal gold deposits mined today on land. Two main types of hydrothermal systems occur along the submarine portion of the Kermadec arc (offshore New Zealand): magmatically influenced and seawater-dominated systems. Brothers volcano hosts both types. Here, we report results from a series of drill holes cored by the International Ocean Discovery Program into these two types of hydrothermal systems. We show that the extent of hydrothermal alteration of the host dacitic volcaniclastics and lavas reflects primary lithological porosity and contrasting spatial and temporal contributions of magmatic fluid, hydrothermal fluid, and seawater. We present a two-step model that links the changes in hydrothermal fluid regime to the evolution of the volcano caldera. Initial hydrothermal activity, prior to caldera formation, was dominated by magmatic gases and hypersaline brines. The former mixed with seawater as they ascended toward the seafloor, and the latter remained sequestered in the subsurface. Following caldera collapse, seawater infiltrated the volcano through fault-controlled permeability, interacted with wall rock and the segregated brines, and transported associated metals toward the seafloor and formed Cu-Zn-Au–rich chimneys on the caldera walls and rim, a process continuing to the present day. This two-step process may be common in submarine arc caldera volcanoes that host volcanogenic massive sulfide deposits, and it is particularly efficient at focusing mineralization at, or near, the seafloor.

Volcanic arcs are the surface expression of magmatic systems that result from subduction of mostly oceanic lithosphere at convergent plate boundaries. Arcs with a submarine component include intraoceanic arcs and island arcs that span almost 22,000 km on Earth’s surface, and the vast majority of them are located in the Pacific region. Hydrothermal systems hosted by submarine arc volcanoes commonly contain a large component of magmatic fluid. This magmatic-hydrothermal signature, coupled with the shallow water depths of arc volcanoes and their high volatile contents, strongly influences the chemistry of the fluids and resulting mineralization and likely has important consequences for the biota associated with these systems. The high metal content and very acidic fluids in these hydrothermal systems are thought to be important analogs to numerous porphyry copper and epithermal gold deposits mined today on land. During International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 376 (5 May–5 July 2018), a series of five sites was drilled on Brothers volcano in the Kermadec arc. The expedition was designed to provide the missing link (i.e., the third dimension) in our understanding of hydrothermal activity and mineral deposit formation at submarine arc volcanoes and the relationship between the discharge of magmatic fluids and the deep biosphere. Brothers volcano hosts two active and distinct hydrothermal systems: one is seawater influenced and the other is affected by magmatic fluids (largely gases). In total, 222.4 m of volcaniclastics and lavas were recovered from the five sites drilled, which include Sites U1527 and U1530 in the Northwest (NW) Caldera seawater-influenced hydrothermal field; Sites U1528 and U1531 in the magmatic fluid-influenced hydrothermal fields of the Upper and Lower Cones, respectively; and Site U1529, located within an area of low crustal magnetization that marks the West (W) Caldera upflow zone on the caldera floor. Downhole logging and borehole fluid sampling were completed at two sites, and two tests of a prototype turbine-driven coring system (designed by the Center for Deep Earth Exploration [CDEX] at Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology [JAMSTEC]) for drilling and coring hard rocks were conducted. Core recovered from all five sites consists of dacitic volcaniclastics and lava flows with only limited chemical variability relative to the overall range in composition of dacites in the Kermadec arc. Pervasive alteration with complex and variable mineral assemblages attest to a highly dynamic hydrothermal system. The upper parts of several drill holes at the NW Caldera hydrothermal field are characterized by secondary mineral assemblages of goethite + opal + zeolites that result from low-temperature (

Well water level changes associated with magmatic unrest can be interpreted as a result of pore pressure changes in the aquifer due to crustal deformation, and so could provide constraints on the subsurface processes causing this strain. We use finite element analysis to demonstrate the response of aquifers to volumetric strain induced by pressurized magma reservoirs. Two different aquifers are invoked – an unconsolidated pyroclastic deposit and a vesicular lava flow – and embedded in an impermeable crust, overlying a magma chamber. The time-dependent, fully coupled models simulate crustal deformation accompanying chamber pressurization and the resulting hydraulic head changes as well as flow through the porous aquifer, i.e. porous flow. The simulated strain leads to centimetres (pyroclastic aquifer) to metres (lava flow aquifer) of hydraulic head changes; both strain and hydraulic head change with time due to substantial porous flow in the hydrological system. Well level changes are particularly sensitive to chamber volume, shape and pressurization strength, followed by aquifer permeability and the phase of the pore fluid. The depths of chamber and aquifer, as well as the aquifer's Young's modulus also have significant influence on the hydraulic head signal. While source characteristics, the distance between chamber and aquifer and the elastic stratigraphy determine the strain field and its partitioning, flow and coupling parameters define how the aquifer responds to this strain and how signals change with time. We find that generic analytical models can fail to capture the complex pre-eruptive subsurface mechanics leading to strain-induced well level changes, due to aquifer pressure changes being sensitive to chamber shape and lithological heterogeneities. In addition, the presence of a pore fluid and its flow have a significant influence on the strain signal in the aquifer and are commonly neglected in analytical models. These findings highlight the need for numerical models for the interpretation of observed well level signals. However, simulated water table changes do indeed mirror volumetric strain, and wells are therefore a valuable addition to monitoring systems that could provide important insights into pre-eruptive dynamics.

Phreatic eruptions, although posing a serious threat to people in crater proximity, are often underestimated and have been comparatively understudied. The detailed eruption catalogue for Ruapehu Volcano (New Zealand) provides an exceptional opportunity to study the statistics of recurring phreatic explosions at a crater lake volcano. We performed a statistical analysis on this phreatic eruption database, which suggests that phreatic events at Ruapehu do not follow a Poisson process. Instead they tend to cluster, which is possibly linked to an increased heat flow during periods of a more shallow-seated magma column. Larger explosions are more likely to follow shortly after smaller events, as opposed to longer periods of quiescence. The absolute probability for a phreatic explosion to occur at Ruapehu within the next month is about 10%, when averaging over the last 70 years of recording. However, the frequency of phreatic explosions is significantly higher than the background level in years prior to magmatic episodes. Combining clast ejection simulations with a Bayesian event tree tool (PyBetVH) we perform a probabilistic assessment of the hazard due to ballistic ejecta in the summit area of Ruapehu, which is frequently visited by hikers. Resulting hazard maps show that the absolute probability for the summit to be affected by ballistics within the next month is up to 6%. The hazard is especially high on the northern lakeshore, where there is a mountain refuge. Our results contribute to the local hazard assessment as well as the general perception of hazards due to steam-driven explosions.

Many rivers and wetlands in south-western Australia are threatened by salinisation due to rising saline watertables, which have resulted from land clearing and the replacement of deep-rooted perennial species with shallow-rooted annual species. A four to six weekly sampling program of water quality, submerged macrophytes and macroinvertebrates was undertaken at six wetlands, from September 2002 to February 2004, to investigate seasonal variation in a range of primary and secondary saline systems. The wetlands dried and filled at different times in response to local rainfall patterns, and salinities varied accordingly with evapoconcentration and dilution. Two types of clear-water wetlands were recognised; those dominated by submerged aquatic macrophytes (Ruppia, Lepilaena and Lamprothamnium) and those dominated by benthic microbial communities. Two types of turbid wetlands were also recognised; those with high concentrations of phytoplankton and those with high concentrations of suspended sediments. A primary saline lake and two lakes that have only recently been affected by secondary salinisation persisted in a clear, macrophyte-dominated regime throughout most of the study period, except during drying and filling. Two lakes with a long history of secondary salinisation (70 years) moved between regimes over the study period. A clear, benthic microbial community – dominated regime only persisted at the wetland which contained permanent water throughout the study period. The turbid regimes were only present during drying and refilling phases. A richer and more abundant macroinvertebrate fauna was associated with the clear, macrophyte- dominated wetlands. Our results suggest that the development of management guidelines that recognise the presence of different ecological regimes and that consider the interactions between water regime, salinity, and primary and secondary production will be more useful in protecting biodiversity and ecological function in these systems than managing salinity as a single factor.

Scleroderma currently affects approximately 75,000-100,000 individuals in the United States. Fibroblasts isolated from lesional skin of scleroderma patients overexpress collagens and other matrix components, and this abnormality is maintained for multiple passages in culture. To understand the molecular basis for matrix gene overexpression, we performed a differential display comparison of fibroblasts from clinically lesional and nonlesional scleroderma skin. The results suggested that protease nexin 1 (PN1), a protease inhibitor, is overexpressed in scleroderma fibroblasts. Northern blot verification showed that lesional and nonlesional scleroderma fibroblasts had three- to five-fold increased levels of PN1 mRNA compared with healthy fibroblasts. Western analysis showed that scleroderma fibroblasts also secreted more PN1. In situ hybridization of skin biopsy specimens demonstrated PN1 expression in the dermis of four out of six scleroderma patients but no PN1 expression in the dermis of six healthy volunteers. Transient or stable overexpression of PN1 in mouse 3T3 fibroblasts increased collagen promoter activity or endogenous collagen transcript levels, respectively. PN1 mutagenized at its active site and antisense PN1 both failed to increase collagen promoter activity. These results suggest that overexpression of enzymatically active PN1 may play a pathogenic role in the development of the scleroderma phenotype.

Highlights • A multidisciplinary approach to unravel the energetics of hydrothermal explosions. • Pressure failure caused by a lake drainage triggered the hydrothermal explosions. • Bedrock nature controlled the explosion dynamics and the way energy was released. • Approx. 30% of the available thermal energy is converted into mechanical energy. • Released seismic energy as proxy to detect past (and future?) hydrothermal explosions. Hydrothermal explosions frequently occur in geothermal areas showing various mechanisms and energies of explosivity. Their deposits, though generally hardly recognised or badly preserved, provide important insights to quantify the dynamics and energy of these poorly understood explosive events. Furthermore the host rock lithology of the geothermal system adds a control on the efficiency in the energy release during an explosion. We present results from a detailed study of recent hydrothermal explosion deposits within an active geothermal area at Kverkfjöll, a central volcano at the northern edge of Vatnajökull. On August 15th 2013, a small jökulhlaup occurred when the Gengissig ice-dammed lake drained at Kverkfjöll. The lake level dropped by approximately 30 m, decreasing pressure on the lake bed and triggering several hydrothermal explosions on the 16th. Here, a multidisciplinary approach combining detailed field work, laboratory studies, and models of the energetics of explosions with information on duration and amplitudes of seismic signals, has been used to analyse the mechanisms and characteristics of these hydrothermal explosions. Field and laboratory studies were also carried out to help constrain the sedimentary sequence involved in the event. The explosions lasted for 40–50 s and involved the surficial part of an unconsolidated and hydrothermally altered glacio-lacustrine deposit composed of pyroclasts, lavas, scoriaceous fragments, and fine-grained welded or loosely consolidated aggregates, interbedded with clay-rich levels. Several small fans of ejecta were formed, reaching a distance of 1 km north of the lake and covering an area of approximately 0.3 km2, with a maximum thickness of 40 cm at the crater walls. The material (volume of approximately 104 m3) has been ejected by the expanding boiling fluid, generated by a pressure failure affecting the surficial geothermal reservoir. The maximum thermal, craterisation and ejection energies, calculated for the explosion areas, are on the order of 1011, 1010 and 109 J, respectively. Comparison of these with those estimated by the volume of the ejecta and the crater sizes, yields good agreement. We estimate that approximately 30% of the available thermal energy was converted into mechanical energy during this event. The residual energy was largely dissipated as heat, while only a small portion was converted into seismic energy. Estimation of the amount of freshly-fragmented clasts in the ejected material obtained from SEM morphological analyses, reveals that a low but significant energy consumption by fragmentation occurred. Decompression experiments were performed in the laboratory mimicking the conditions due to the drainage of the lake. Experimental results confirm that only a minor amount of energy is consumed by the creation of new surfaces in fragmentation, whereas most of the fresh fragments derive from the disaggregation of aggregates. Furthermore, ejection velocities of the particles (40–50 m/s), measured via high-speed videos, are consistent with those estimated from the field. The multidisciplinary approach used here to investigate hydrothermal explosions has proven to be a valuable tool which can provide robust constraints on energy release and partitioning for such small-size yet hazardous, steam-explosion events.