Search

Exposure to ambient ozone (O3) O3 is associated with impacts on human health. O3 is a secondary pollutant whose concentrations are determined inter alia by emissions of precursors such as oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and thus future health burdens depend on policies relating to climate and air quality. While emission controls are expected to reduce levels of PM2.5 and NO2 and their associated mortality burdens, for secondary pollutants like O3 the picture is less clear. Detailed assessments are necessary to provide quantitative estimates of future impacts to support decision-makers. We simulate future O3 across the UK using a high spatial resolution atmospheric chemistry model with current UK and European policy projections for 2030, 2040 and 2050, and use UK regional population-weighting and latest recommendations on health impact assessment to quantify respiratory emergency hospital admissions associated with short-term effects of O3. We estimate 60,488 admissions in 2018, increasing by 4.2%, 4.5% and 4.6% by 2030, 2040 and 2050 respectively (assuming a fixed population). Including future population growth, estimated emergency respiratory hospital admissions are 8.3%, 10.3% and 11.7% higher by 2030, 2040 and 2050 respectively. Increasing O3 concentrations in future are driven by reduced nitric oxide (NO) in urban areas due to reduced emissions, with increases in O3 mainly occurring in areas with lowest O3 concentrations currently. Meteorology influences episodes of O3 on a day-to-day basis, although a sensitivity study indicates that annual totals of hospital admissions are only slightly impacted by meteorological year. While reducing emissions results in overall benefits to population health (through reduced mortality due to long-term exposure to PM2.5 and NO2), due to the complex chemistry, as NO emissions reduce there are associated local increases in O3 close to population centres that may increase harms to health.

Air pollution is the greatest environmental risk to public health. Future air pollution concentrations are primarily determined by precursor emissions, which are driven by environmental policies relating to climate and air pollution. Detailed health impact assessments (HIA) are necessary to provide quantitative estimates of the impacts of future air pollution to support decision-makers developing environmental policy and targets. In this study we use high spatial resolution atmospheric chemistry modelling to simulate future air pollution concentrations across the UK for 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on current UK and European policy projections. We combine UK regional population-weighted concentrations with the latest epidemiological relationships to quantify mortality associated with changes in PM2.5 and NO2 air pollution. Our HIA suggests that by 2050, population-weighted exposure to PM2.5 will reduce by 28% to 36%, and for NO2 by 35% to 49%, depending on region. The HIA shows that for present day (2018), annual mortality attributable to the effects of long-term exposure to PM2.5 and NO2 is in the range 26,287 – 42,442, and that mortality burdens in future will be substantially reduced, being lower by 31%, 35%, and 37% in 2030, 2040 and 2050 respectively (relative to 2018) assuming no population changes. Including population projections (increases in all regions for 30+ years age group) slightly offsets these health benefits, resulting in reductions of 25%, 27%, and 26% in mortality burdens for 2030, 2040, 2050 respectively. Significant reductions in future mortality burdens are estimated and, importantly for public health, the majority of benefits are achieved early on in the future timeline simulated, though further efforts are likely needed to reduce impacts of air pollution to health.