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Summary: Background: Diarrhoeal disease is a leading cause of childhood illness and death globally, and Shigella is a major aetiological contributor for which a vaccine might soon be available. The primary objective of this study was to model the spatiotemporal variation in paediatric Shigella infection and map its predicted prevalence across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Methods: Individual participant data for Shigella positivity in stool samples were sourced from multiple LMIC-based studies of children aged 59 months or younger. Covariates included household-level and participant-level factors ascertained by study investigators and environmental and hydrometeorological variables extracted from various data products at georeferenced child locations. Multivariate models were fitted and prevalence predictions obtained by syndrome and age stratum. Findings: 20 studies from 23 countries (including locations in Central America and South America, sub-Saharan Africa, and south and southeast Asia) contributed 66 563 sample results. Age, symptom status, and study design contributed most to model performance followed by temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, and soil moisture. Probability of Shigella infection exceeded 20% when both precipitation and soil moisture were above average and had a 43% peak in uncomplicated diarrhoea cases at 33°C temperatures, above which it decreased. Compared with unimproved sanitation, improved sanitation decreased the odds of Shigella infection by 19% (odds ratio [OR]=0·81 [95% CI 0·76–0·86]) and open defecation decreased them by 18% (OR=0·82 [0·76–0·88]). Interpretation: The distribution of Shigella is more sensitive to climatological factors, such as temperature, than previously recognised. Conditions in much of sub-Saharan Africa are particularly propitious for Shigella transmission, although hotspots also occur in South America and Central America, the Ganges–Brahmaputra Delta, and the island of New Guinea. These findings can inform prioritisation of populations for future vaccine trials and campaigns. Funding: NASA, National Institutes of Health–The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Background: Globally, mortality in children younger than 5 years has been decreasing over the past few decades, but high under-5 mortality persists across regions of sub-Saharan Africa and southern Asia. Interventions—such as improved quality of clinical and antenatal care, better access to emergency obstetrical procedures, better triage and risk stratification, better immunisation coverage, or infection control measures—could substantially reduce deaths, but it is unclear which strategies could save the most lives. We aimed to use data from the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) network to examine which health-care and public health improvements could have prevented the most deaths. Methods: We used standardised, population-based, mortality surveillance data collected by CHAMPS from seven sites (Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, and South Africa) to understand preventable causes of death in children younger than 5 years. Deaths were investigated with minimally invasive tissue sampling, a post-mortem approach using biopsy needles for sampling key organs and body fluids. For each death, an expert panel reviewed case data to determine whether the death was preventable and (if preventable) provided recommendations as to how the death could have been avoided. We evaluated which health system improvements could have prevented the most deaths among those who underwent minimally invasive tissue sampling for each age group: stillbirths, neonatal deaths (aged

Summary: Background: Host vulnerabilities associated with acute malnutrition could facilitate the ability of specific enteric pathogens to cause diarrhoea and associated mortality. Using data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study, we assessed whether acute malnutrition modifies the association between common enteric pathogens and moderate-to-severe diarrhoea, and whether associations between enteric pathogens and death were modified by acute malnutrition. Methods: Children with moderate-to-severe diarrhoea and age-matched and community-matched controls were included in this post-hoc analysis if their mid-upper arm circumference had been measured and if they were older than 6 months of age. Acute malnutrition was defined as mid-upper arm circumference below 12·5 cm, capturing both severe acute malnutrition (

Summary: Background: Diarrheal diseases remain a leading cause of illness and death among children younger than 5 years in low-income and middle-income countries. The Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) has described the incidence, aetiology, and sequelae of medically attended moderate-to-severe diarrhoea (MSD) among children aged 0–59 months residing in censused populations in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where most child deaths occur. To further characterise this disease burden and guide interventions, we extended this study to include children with episodes of less-severe diarrhoea (LSD) seeking care at health centres serving six GEMS sites. Methods: We report a 1-year, multisite, age-stratified, matched case-control study following on to the GEMS study. Six sites (Bamako, Mali; Manhiça, Mozambique; Basse, The Gambia; Mirzapur, Bangladesh; Kolkata, India; and Bin Qasim Town, Karachi, Pakistan) participated in this study. Children aged 0–59 months at each site who sought care at a sentinel hospital or health centre during a 12-month period were screened for diarrhoea. New (onset after ≥7 diarrhoea-free days) and acute (onset within the previous 7 days) episodes of diarrhoea in children who had sunken eyes, whose skin lost turgor, who received intravenous hydration, who had dysentery, or who were hospitalised were eligible for inclusion as MSD. The remaining new and acute diarrhoea episodes among children who sought care at the same health centres were considered LSD. We aimed to enrol the first eight or nine eligible children with MSD and LSD at each site during each fortnight in three age strata: infants (aged 0–11 months), toddlers (aged 12–23 months), and young children (aged 24–59 months). For each included case of MSD or LSD, we enrolled one to three community control children without diarrhoea during the previous 7 days. From patients and controls we collected clinical and epidemiological data, anthropometric measurements, and faecal samples to identify enteropathogens at enrolment, and we performed a follow-up home visit about 60 days later to ascertain vital status, clinical outcome, and interval growth. Primary outcomes were to characterise, for MSD and LSD, the pathogen-specific attributable risk and population-based incidence values, and to assess the frequency of adverse clinical consequences associated with these two diarrhoeal syndromes. Findings: From Oct 31, 2011, to Nov 14, 2012, we recruited 2368 children with MSD, 3174 with LSD, and one to three randomly selected community control children without diarrhoea matched to cases with MSD (n=3597) or LSD (n=4236). Weighted adjusted population attributable fractions showed that most attributable cases of MSD and LSD were due to rotavirus, Cryptosporidium spp, enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli encoding heat-stable toxin (with or without genes encoding heat-labile enterotoxin), and Shigella spp. The attributable incidence per 100 child-years for LSD versus MSD, by age stratum, for rotavirus was 22·3 versus 5·5 (0–11 months), 9·8 versus 2·9 (12–23 months), and 0·5 versus 0·2 (24–59 months); for Cryptosporidium spp was 3·6 versus 2·3 (0–11 months), 4·3 versus 0·6 (12–23 months), and 0·3 versus 0·1 (24–59 months); for enterotoxigenic E coli encoding heat-stable toxin was 4·2 versus 0·1 (0–11 months), 5·2 versus 0·0 (12–23 months), and 1·1 versus 0·2 (24–59 months); and for Shigella spp was 1·0 versus 1·3 (0–11 months), 3·1 versus 2·4 (12–23 months), and 0·8 versus 0·7 (24–59 months). Participants with both MSD and LSD had significantly more linear growth faltering than controls at follow-up. Interpretation: Inclusion of participants with LSD markedly expands the population of children who experience adverse clinical and nutritional outcomes from acute diarrhoeal diseases. Since MSD and LSD have similar aetiologies, interventions targeting rotavirus, Shigella spp, enterotoxigenic E coli producing heat-stable toxin, and Cryptosporidium spp might substantially reduce the diarrhoeal disease burden and its associated nutritional faltering. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

OBJECTIVES:. To investigate which independent factor(s) have an impact on the pharmacokinetics of vancomycin in critically ill children, develop an equation to predict the 24-hour area under the concentration-time curve from a trough concentration, and evaluate dosing regimens likely to achieve a 24-hour area under the concentration-time curve to minimum inhibitory concentration ratio (AUC24/MIC) greater than or equal to 400. DESIGN:. Prospective population pharmacokinetic study of vancomycin. SETTING:. Critically ill patients in quaternary care PICUs. PATIENTS:. Children 90 days old or older to younger than 18 years who received IV vancomycin treatment, irrespective of the indication for use, in the ICUs at the University of Maryland Children’s Hospital and Texas Children’s Hospital were enrolled. INTERVENTIONS:. Vancomycin was prescribed at doses and intervals chosen by the treating clinicians. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS:. A median of four serum levels of vancomycin per patient were collected along with other variables for up to 7 days following the first administration. These data were used to characterize vancomycin pharmacokinetics and evaluate the factors affecting the variability in achieving AUC24/MIC ratio greater than or equal to 400 in PICU patients who are not on extracorporeal therapy. A total of 302 children with a median age of 6.0 years were enrolled. A two-compartment model described the pharmacokinetics of vancomycin with the clearance of 2.76 L/hr for a typical patient weighing 20 kg. The glomerular filtration rate estimated using either the bedside Schwartz equation or the chronic kidney disease in children equation was the only statistically significant predictor of clearance among the variables evaluated, exhibiting equal predictive performance. The trough levels achieving AUC24/MIC = 400 were 5.6–10.0 μg/mL when MIC = 1 μg/mL. The target of AUC24/MIC greater than or equal to 400 was achieved in 60.4% and 36.5% with the typical dosing regimens of 15 mg/kg every 6 and 8 hours (q6h and q8h), respectively. CONCLUSIONS:. The pharmacokinetics of vancomycin in critically ill children were dependent on the estimated glomerular filtration rate only. Trough concentrations accurately predict AUC24. Typical pediatric vancomycin dosing regimens of 15 mg/kg q6h and q8h will often lead to AUC24/MIC under 400.