Search

Abstract Background The DeWorm3 project is an ongoing cluster-randomised trial assessing the feasibility of interrupting the transmission of soil-transmitted helminths (STH) through mass drug administration (MDA) using study sites in India, Malawi and Benin. In this article, we describe an approach which uses a combination of statistical and mathematical methods to forecast the outcome of the trial with respect to its stated goal of reducing the prevalence of infection to below 2%. Methods Our approach is first to define the local patterns of transmission within each study site, which is achieved by statistical inference of key epidemiological parameters using the baseline epidemiological measures of age-related prevalence and intensity of STH infection which have been collected by the DeWorm3 trials team. We use these inferred parameters to calibrate an individual-based stochastic simulation of the trial at the cluster and study site level, which is subsequently run to forecast the future prevalence of STH infections. The simulator takes into account both the uncertainties in parameter estimation and the variability inherent in epidemiological and demographic processes in the simulator. We interpret the forecast results from our simulation with reference to the stated goal of the DeWorm3 trial, to achieve a target of $$\le 2\%$$ ≤ 2 % prevalence at a point 24 months post-cessation of MDA. Results Simulated output predicts that the two arms will be distinguishable from each other in all three country sites at the study end point. In India and Malawi, measured prevalence in the intervention arm is below the threshold with a high probability (90% and 95%, respectively), but in Benin the heterogeneity between clusters prevents the arm prevalence from being reduced below the threshold value. At the level of individual study arms within each site, heterogeneity among clusters leads to a very low probability of achieving complete elimination in an intervention arm, yielding a post-study scenario with widespread elimination but a few ‘hot spot’ areas of persisting STH transmission. Conclusions Our results suggest that geographical heterogeneities in transmission intensity and worm aggregation have a large impact on the effect of MDA. It is important to accurately assess cluster-level, or even smaller scale, heterogeneities in factors which influence transmission and aggregation for a clearer perspective on projecting the outcomes of MDA control of STH and other neglected tropical diseases.

Infectious keratitis is a leading cause of corneal blindness worldwide with little information known about causative etiologies in Malawi, Africa. This area is resource-limited with ophthalmologist and microbiology services. The Department of Ophthalmology at the Kamuzu College of Health Sciences in Blantyre, Malawi, is a participating site of an international corneal ulcer consortium, capriCORN (Comprehensive Analysis of Pathogens, Resistomes, and Inflammatory-markers in the CORNea). In this study, 50 patients with corneal ulcers were swabbed for pathogen identification using RNA-sequencing. Corneal trauma was reported in 41% and 19% of the patients worked in agriculture. A pathogen was identified in 58% of the cases. Fungal pathogens predominated, followed by viruses and bacteria. Aspergillus, Fusarium, HSV-1, and Gardnerella were the most common pathogens detected. 50% of patients reported treatment with an antibiotic before presentation. Pathogens unusual for infectious keratitis, such as Subramaniula asteroids, Aureobasidium pullulans, and Gardnerella vaginalis, were also detected.

Trachoma, caused by ocular Chlamydia trachomatis infection, is targeted for global elimination as a public health problem by 2030. To provide evidence for use of antibodies to monitor C. trachomatis transmission, we collated IgG responses to Pgp3 antigen, PCR positivity, and clinical observations from 19,811 children aged 1-9 years in 14 populations. We demonstrate that age-seroprevalence curves consistently shift along a gradient of transmission intensity: rising steeply in populations with high levels of infection and active trachoma and becoming flat in populations near elimination. Seroprevalence (range: 0-54%) and seroconversion rates (range: 0-15 per 100 person-years) correlate with PCR prevalence (r: 0.87, 95% CI: 0.57, 0.97). A seroprevalence threshold of 13.5% (seroconversion rate 2.75 per 100 person-years) identifies clusters with any PCR-identified infection at high sensitivity ( >90%) and moderate specificity (69-75%). Antibody responses in young children provide a robust, generalizable approach to monitor population progress toward and beyond trachoma elimination.

Abstract Background There is great interest in providing primary eye care (PEC) through integration into primary health care (PHC). However, there is little evidence of the productivity of PHC workers in offering primary eye care after training and integration, and there is need to compare their effectiveness to alternative methods. The current study compared the effectiveness of trained Health Surveillance Assistants (HSAs) versus trained volunteer Key Informants (KIs) in identifying blind children in southern Malawi. Methods A cluster community based study was conducted in Mulanje district, population 435 753. Six clusters each with a population of approximately 70 000 to 80 000, 42% of whom were children were identified and randomly allocated to either HSA or KI training. From each cluster 20 HSAs or 20 KIs were selected for training. Training emphasized the causes of blindness in children and their management, and how to identify and list children suspected of being blind. HSAs and KIs used multiple methods (door to door, school screening, health education talks, village announcements, etc.) to identify children. Using the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates (eight blind children per 10 000 children); approximately 144 to 162 blind children were expected in the chosen clusters. Listed children were brought to a centre within the community where they were examined by an ophthalmologist and findings recorded using the WHO form for examining blindness in children. Results A total of 59 HSAs and 64 KIs were trained. HSAs identified five children of whom two were confirmed as blind (one blind child per 29.5 HSAs trained). On the other hand, the KIs identified a total of 158 children of whom 20 were confirmed blind (one blind child per 3.2 KIs trained). More blind boys than girls were identified (77.3% versus 22.7%) respectively. Conclusion Key Informants were much better at identifying blind children than HSAs, even though both groups identified far fewer blind children compared with WHO estimates. HSAs reported lack of time as a major constraint in identifying blind children. Based on these findings using HSAs for identifying blind children would not be successful in Malawi. Gender differences need to be addressed in all childhood blindness programs to counteract the imbalance.

Reductions in malaria morbidity have been reported following azithromycin mass drug administration (MDA) for trachoma. The recent Macrolides Oraux pour Reduire les Deces avec un Oeil sur la Resistance (MORDOR) trial reported a reduction in child mortality following biannual azithromycin MDA. Here, we investigate the effects of azithromycin MDA on malaria at the MORDOR-Malawi study site. A cluster-randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial, with 15 clusters per arm, was conducted. House-to-house census was updated biannually, and azithromycin or placebo syrup was distributed to children aged 1-59 months for a total of four biannual distributions. At baseline, 12-month, and 24-month follow-up visits, a random sample of 1,200 children was assessed for malaria with thick and thin blood smears and hemoglobin measurement. In the community-level analysis, there was no difference in the prevalence of parasitemia (1.0% lower in azithromycin-treated communities; 95% CI: -8.2 to 6.1), gametocytemia (0.7% lower in azithromycin-treated communities; 95% CI: -2.8 to 1.5), or anemia (1.7% lower in azithromycin-treated communities; 95% CI: -8.1 to 4.6) between placebo and azithromycin communities. Further interrogation of the data at the individual level, both per-protocol (including only those who received treatment 6 months previously) and by intention-to-treat, did not identify differences in parasitemia between treatment arms. In contrast to several previous reports, this study did not show an effect of azithromycin MDA on malaria parasitemia at the community or individual levels.

The recent Macrolides Oraux pour Réduire les Décès avec un Oeil sur la Résistance (MORDOR) trial reported a reduction in child mortality following biannual azithromycin mass drug administration (MDA). Here, we investigate the financial costs and cost-effectiveness from the health provider perspective of azithromycin MDA at the MORDOR-Malawi study site. During MORDOR, a cluster-randomized trial involving biannual azithromycin MDA or placebo to children aged 1-59 months, fieldwork-related costs were collected, including personnel, transport, consumables, overheads, training, and supervision. Mortality rates in azithromycin- and placebo-treated clusters were calculated overall and for the five health zones of Mangochi district. These were used to estimate the number needed to treat to avert one death and the costs per death and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. The cost per dose of MDA was $0.74 overall, varying between $0.63 and $0.94 in the five zones. Overall, the number needed to treat to avert one death was 1,213 children; the cost per death averted was $898.47, and the cost per DALY averted was $9.98. In the three zones where mortality was lower in azithromycin-treated clusters, the number needed to treat to avert one death, cost per death averted, and cost per DALY averted, respectively, were as follows: 3,070, $2,899.24, and $32.31 in Monkey Bay zone; 1,530, $1,214.42, and $13.49 in Chilipa zone; and 344, $217.98, and $2.42 in Namwera zone. This study is a preliminary cost-effectiveness analysis that indicates azithromycin MDA for reducing child mortality has the potential to be highly cost-effective in some settings in Malawi, but the reasons for geographical variation in effectiveness require further investigation.

Recent evidence indicates mass drug administration with azithromycin may reduce child mortality. This study uses verbal autopsy (VA) to investigate the causes of individual deaths during the Macrolides Oraux pour Réduire les Décès avec un Oeil sur la Résistance (MORDOR) trial in Malawi. Cluster randomization was performed as part of MORDOR. Biannual household visits were conducted to distribute azithromycin or placebo to children aged 1-59 months and update the census to identify deaths for VA. MORDOR was not powered to investigate mortality effects at individual sites, but the available evidence is presented here for hypothesis generation regarding the mechanism through which azithromycin may reduce child mortality. Automated VA analysis was performed to infer the likely cause of death using two major analysis programs, InterVA and SmartVA. A total of 334 communities were randomized to azithromycin or placebo, with more than 130,000 person-years of follow-up. During the study, there were 1,184 deaths, of which 1,131 were followed up with VA. Mortality was 9% lower in azithromycin-treated communities than in placebo communities (rate ratio 0.91 [95% CI: 0.79-1.05]; P = 0.20). The intention-to-treat analysis by cause using InterVA suggested fewer HIV/AIDS deaths in azithromycin-treated communities (rate ratio 0.70 [95% CI: 0.50-0.97]; P = 0.03) and fewer pneumonia deaths (rate ratio 0.82 [95% CI: 0.60-1.12]; P = 0.22). The use of the SmartVA algorithm suggested fewer diarrhea deaths (rate ratio 0.71 [95% CI: 0.51-1.00]; P = 0.05) and fewer pneumonia deaths (rate ratio 0.58 [95% CI: 0.33-1.00]; P = 0.05). Although this study is not able to provide strong evidence, the data suggest that the mortality reduction during MORDOR in Malawi may have been due to effects on pneumonia and diarrhea or HIV/AIDS mortality.

We examined whether baseline mortality risk, as a function of child age and site, modified the azithromycin mortality-reduction effect in the Macrolide Oraux pour Réduire les Décès avec un Oeil sur la Résistance (MORDOR) clinical trial. We used the Cox proportional hazards model with an interaction term. Three models were examined representing three sources for the baseline-risk covariate: two using sources external to MORDOR and the third leveraging data within MORDOR. All three models provided moderate evidence for the effect becoming stronger with increasing baseline mortality (P = 0.02, 0.02, and 0.07, respectively) at the rate of approximately 6-12% additional mortality reduction per doubling of baseline mortality. Etiological and programmatic implications of these findings are discussed.

Mass azithromycin distribution has been shown to reduce all-cause mortality in preschool children in sub-Saharan Africa. However, substantial heterogeneity in the apparent effect has been noted across geographic settings, suggesting a greater relative benefit in higher mortality settings. Here, we evaluated the relationship between the underlying mortality rate and the efficacy of azithromycin for the prevention of child mortality using data from multiple sites in Ethiopia, Malawi, Niger, and Tanzania. Between regions, we find no strong evidence of effect modification of the efficacy of azithromycin distribution for the prevention of child mortality by the underlying mortality rate (P = 0.12), although a modest effect is consistent with our findings. Higher mortality settings could be prioritized, however, because of the larger number of deaths which could be averted with azithromycin distribution.

In a large community-randomized trial, biannual azithromycin distributions significantly reduced postneonatal childhood mortality in sub-Saharan African sites. Here, we present a prespecified secondary analysis showing that much of the protective effect was in the first 3 months postdistribution. Distributing more frequently than biannually could be considered if logistically feasible. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT02047981.

Mass drug administration (MDA) with azithromycin may reduce under-5 child mortality (U5M) in sub-Saharan Africa. Here, we conducted a pooled analysis of all published cluster-randomized trials evaluating the effect of azithromycin MDA on child mortality. We pooled data from cluster-randomized trials randomizing communities to azithromycin MDA versus control. We calculated mortality rates in the azithromycin and control arms in each study, and by country for multisite studies including multiple countries. We conducted a two-stage individual community data meta-analysis to estimate the effect of azithromycin for prevention of child mortality. Three randomized controlled trials in four countries (Ethiopia, Malawi, Niger, and Tanzania) were identified. The overall pooled mortality rate was 15.9 per 1,000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI]: 15.5-16.3). The pooled mortality rate was lower in azithromycin-treated communities than in placebo-treated communities (14.7 deaths per 1,000 person-years, 95% CI: 14.2-15.3 versus 17.2 deaths per 1,000 person-years, 95% CI: 16.5-17.8). There was a 14.4% reduction in all-cause child mortality in communities receiving azithromycin MDA (95% CI: 6.3-21.7% reduction, P = 0.0007). All-cause U5M was lower in communities receiving azithromycin MDA than in control communities, suggesting that azithromycin MDA could be a new tool to reduce child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. However, heterogeneity in effect estimates suggests that the magnitude of the effect may vary in time and space and is currently not predictable.

The article discusses the need for a paradigm shift in soil-transmitted helminthiasis (STH) control, emphasizing the importance of targeting the right people, in the right place, and with the right drugs. It highlights the unequal burden of STH infections on disadvantaged populations and the need for a more targeted and equity-based approach to deworming. The World Health Organization's 2030 targets for STH control programs are outlined, focusing on achieving elimination of STH morbidity and increasing domestic financial support for preventive chemotherapy. The article calls for increased coordination, accountability, and country ownership to optimize resources and improve the effectiveness of STH control programs. [Extracted from the article]

BackgroundWe hypothesized that mass distribution of a broad-spectrum antibiotic agent to preschool children would reduce mortality in areas of sub-Saharan Africa that are currently far from meeting the Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations.MethodsIn this cluster-randomized trial, we assigned communities in Malawi, Niger, and Tanzania to four twice-yearly mass distributions of either oral azithromycin (approximately 20 mg per kilogram of body weight) or placebo. Children 1 to 59 months of age were identified in twice-yearly censuses and were offered participation in the trial. Vital status was determined at subsequent censuses. The primary outcome was aggregate all-cause mortality; country-specific rates were assessed in prespecified subgroup analyses.ResultsA total of 1533 communities underwent randomization, 190,238 children were identified in the census at baseline, and 323,302 person-years were monitored. The mean (±SD) azithromycin and placebo coverage over the four twice-yearly distributions was 90.4±10.4%. The overall annual mortality rate was 14.6 deaths per 1000 person-years in communities that received azithromycin (9.1 in Malawi, 22.5 in Niger, and 5.4 in Tanzania) and 16.5 deaths per 1000 person-years in communities that received placebo (9.6 in Malawi, 27.5 in Niger, and 5.5 in Tanzania). Mortality was 13.5% lower overall (95% confidence interval [CI], 6.7 to 19.8) in communities that received azithromycin than in communities that received placebo (P

Following a national population-based trachoma survey in Malawi one round of azithromycin mass drug administration (MDA) was carried out, with a post-MDA impact survey showing TF prevalence below 5% and considered eliminated as a public health problem. However, active trachoma was still present in over 200 children. We assessed whether water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) factors were associated with ongoing presence of TF in children aged 1–9 years following MDA. A secondary analysis was performed on a sub-set of the post-MDA impact survey data for children aged 1–9 years. We used a logistic regression analysis, adjusted for clustering at the household and village level. Among 16,142 children aged 1–9 years, 209 (1.3%) had TF after MDA. Factors associated with a significantly lower odds of TF after MDA were living in a household with a handwashing facility (aOR: 0.37) and living in a household where water for washing is located further away from the home (30 min away aOR: 0.39, p =.034, or more than 1 h away aOR: 0.31, p =.018) compared with water in the yard. The inverse association between a domestic handwashing facility and TF is consistent with previous findings, but the association of increasing distance to collect water for washing with a reduced risk of TF was unexpected and may reflect the impact of drought and unmeasured behavioural factors related to water usage. A more comprehensive collection of sociodemographic and WASH factor information in population-based trachoma surveys will provide insight into achieving and maintaining low levels of trachoma. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The aim of this study was to address the unmet information needs of Malawian informal carers. We report on a three-year project which we co-created with informal carers, medical doctors and NGOs with the view to disseminate health advisory messages. Design/methodology/approach: This study was developed on the principles of co-production. The impact of our health advisory messaging approach was assessed through observations and questionnaire-based surveys for quality, clarity and usefulness. Findings: The messages were disseminated beyond the local support groups and reached a much wider community via word of mouth. The messages also led to short and medium term benefits for informal carers and their loved ones. Originality/value: Our findings highlight the importance of understanding the contextual conditions of informal caring and that of co-producing interventions with the people these aim to benefit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urogenital schistosomiasis is a waterborne disease transmitted by certain freshwater snails that occurs throughout much of sub-Saharan Africa. Until recently, this disease was attributed solely to Schistosoma haematobium, which was [...]