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1. Hyperbolic Graph Embedding with Enhanced Semi-Implicit Variational Inference

Author

Rezaabad, Ali Lotfi, Kalantari, Rahi, Vishwanath, Sriram, Zhou, Mingyuan, and Tamir, Jonathan

Subjects
Computer Science - Machine Learning, Statistics - Machine Learning
Abstract

Efficient modeling of relational data arising in physical, social, and information sciences is challenging due to complicated dependencies within the data. In this work, we build off of semi-implicit graph variational auto-encoders to capture higher-order statistics in a low-dimensional graph latent representation. We incorporate hyperbolic geometry in the latent space through a Poincare embedding to efficiently represent graphs exhibiting hierarchical structure. To address the naive posterior latent distribution assumptions in classical variational inference, we use semi-implicit hierarchical variational Bayes to implicitly capture posteriors of given graph data, which may exhibit heavy tails, multiple modes, skewness, and highly correlated latent structures. We show that the existing semi-implicit variational inference objective provably reduces information in the observed graph. Based on this observation, we estimate and add an additional mutual information term to the semi-implicit variational inference learning objective to capture rich correlations arising between the input and latent spaces. We show that the inclusion of this regularization term in conjunction with the Poincare embedding boosts the quality of learned high-level representations and enables more flexible and faithful graphical modeling. We experimentally demonstrate that our approach outperforms existing graph variational auto-encoders both in Euclidean and in hyperbolic spaces for edge link prediction and node classification.

Published
2020

2. Graph Gamma Process Generalized Linear Dynamical Systems

Author

Kalantari, Rahi and Zhou, Mingyuan

Subjects
Statistics - Methodology, Computer Science - Machine Learning, Statistics - Applications, Statistics - Computation, Statistics - Machine Learning
Abstract

We introduce graph gamma process (GGP) linear dynamical systems to model real-valued multivariate time series. For temporal pattern discovery, the latent representation under the model is used to decompose the time series into a parsimonious set of multivariate sub-sequences. In each sub-sequence, different data dimensions often share similar temporal patterns but may exhibit distinct magnitudes, and hence allowing the superposition of all sub-sequences to exhibit diverse behaviors at different data dimensions. We further generalize the proposed model by replacing the Gaussian observation layer with the negative binomial distribution to model multivariate count time series. Generated from the proposed GGP is an infinite dimensional directed sparse random graph, which is constructed by taking the logical OR operation of countably infinite binary adjacency matrices that share the same set of countably infinite nodes. Each of these adjacency matrices is associated with a weight to indicate its activation strength, and places a finite number of edges between a finite subset of nodes belonging to the same node community. We use the generated random graph, whose number of nonzero-degree nodes is finite, to define both the sparsity pattern and dimension of the latent state transition matrix of a (generalized) linear dynamical system. The activation strength of each node community relative to the overall activation strength is used to extract a multivariate sub-sequence, revealing the data pattern captured by the corresponding community. On both synthetic and real-world time series, the proposed nonparametric Bayesian dynamic models, which are initialized at random, consistently exhibit good predictive performance in comparison to a variety of baseline models, revealing interpretable latent state transition patterns and decomposing the time series into distinctly behaved sub-sequences., Comment: 36 pages, 10 figures

Published
2020

3. Nonparametric Bayesian Sparse Graph Linear Dynamical Systems

Author

Kalantari, Rahi, Ghosh, Joydeep, and Zhou, Mingyuan

Subjects
Statistics - Machine Learning, Statistics - Methodology
Abstract

A nonparametric Bayesian sparse graph linear dynamical system (SGLDS) is proposed to model sequentially observed multivariate data. SGLDS uses the Bernoulli-Poisson link together with a gamma process to generate an infinite dimensional sparse random graph to model state transitions. Depending on the sparsity pattern of the corresponding row and column of the graph affinity matrix, a latent state of SGLDS can be categorized as either a non-dynamic state or a dynamic one. A normal-gamma construction is used to shrink the energy captured by the non-dynamic states, while the dynamic states can be further categorized into live, absorbing, or noise-injection states, which capture different types of dynamical components of the underlying time series. The state-of-the-art performance of SGLDS is demonstrated with experiments on both synthetic and real data., Comment: AISTATS 2018

Published
2018

4. Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

Author

Cramer, Estee Y., primary, Ray, Evan L., additional, Lopez, Velma K., additional, Bracher, Johannes, additional, Brennen, Andrea, additional, Castro Rivadeneira, Alvaro J., additional, Gerding, Aaron, additional, Gneiting, Tilmann, additional, House, Katie H., additional, Huang, Yuxin, additional, Jayawardena, Dasuni, additional, Kanji, Abdul H., additional, Khandelwal, Ayush, additional, Le, Khoa, additional, Mühlemann, Anja, additional, Niemi, Jarad, additional, Shah, Apurv, additional, Stark, Ariane, additional, Wang, Yijin, additional, Wattanachit, Nutcha, additional, Zorn, Martha W., additional, Gu, Youyang, additional, Jain, Sansiddh, additional, Bannur, Nayana, additional, Deva, Ayush, additional, Kulkarni, Mihir, additional, Merugu, Srujana, additional, Raval, Alpan, additional, Shingi, Siddhant, additional, Tiwari, Avtansh, additional, White, Jerome, additional, Abernethy, Neil F., additional, Woody, Spencer, additional, Dahan, Maytal, additional, Fox, Spencer, additional, Gaither, Kelly, additional, Lachmann, Michael, additional, Meyers, Lauren Ancel, additional, Scott, James G., additional, Tec, Mauricio, additional, Srivastava, Ajitesh, additional, George, Glover E., additional, Cegan, Jeffrey C., additional, Dettwiller, Ian D., additional, England, William P., additional, Farthing, Matthew W., additional, Hunter, Robert H., additional, Lafferty, Brandon, additional, Linkov, Igor, additional, Mayo, Michael L., additional, Parno, Matthew D., additional, Rowland, Michael A., additional, Trump, Benjamin D., additional, Zhang-James, Yanli, additional, Chen, Samuel, additional, Faraone, Stephen V., additional, Hess, Jonathan, additional, Morley, Christopher P., additional, Salekin, Asif, additional, Wang, Dongliang, additional, Corsetti, Sabrina M., additional, Baer, Thomas M., additional, Eisenberg, Marisa C., additional, Falb, Karl, additional, Huang, Yitao, additional, Martin, Emily T., additional, McCauley, Ella, additional, Myers, Robert L., additional, Schwarz, Tom, additional, Sheldon, Daniel, additional, Gibson, Graham Casey, additional, Yu, Rose, additional, Gao, Liyao, additional, Ma, Yian, additional, Wu, Dongxia, additional, Yan, Xifeng, additional, Jin, Xiaoyong, additional, Wang, Yu-Xiang, additional, Chen, YangQuan, additional, Guo, Lihong, additional, Zhao, Yanting, additional, Gu, Quanquan, additional, Chen, Jinghui, additional, Wang, Lingxiao, additional, Xu, Pan, additional, Zhang, Weitong, additional, Zou, Difan, additional, Biegel, Hannah, additional, Lega, Joceline, additional, McConnell, Steve, additional, Nagraj, V. P., additional, Guertin, Stephanie L., additional, Hulme-Lowe, Christopher, additional, Turner, Stephen D., additional, Shi, Yunfeng, additional, Ban, Xuegang, additional, Walraven, Robert, additional, Hong, Qi-Jun, additional, Kong, Stanley, additional, van de Walle, Axel, additional, Turtle, James A., additional, Ben-Nun, Michal, additional, Riley, Steven, additional, Riley, Pete, additional, Koyluoglu, Ugur, additional, DesRoches, David, additional, Forli, Pedro, additional, Hamory, Bruce, additional, Kyriakides, Christina, additional, Leis, Helen, additional, Milliken, John, additional, Moloney, Michael, additional, Morgan, James, additional, Nirgudkar, Ninad, additional, Ozcan, Gokce, additional, Piwonka, Noah, additional, Ravi, Matt, additional, Schrader, Chris, additional, Shakhnovich, Elizabeth, additional, Siegel, Daniel, additional, Spatz, Ryan, additional, Stiefeling, Chris, additional, Wilkinson, Barrie, additional, Wong, Alexander, additional, Cavany, Sean, additional, España, Guido, additional, Moore, Sean, additional, Oidtman, Rachel, additional, Perkins, Alex, additional, Kraus, David, additional, Kraus, Andrea, additional, Gao, Zhifeng, additional, Bian, Jiang, additional, Cao, Wei, additional, Lavista Ferres, Juan, additional, Li, Chaozhuo, additional, Liu, Tie-Yan, additional, Xie, Xing, additional, Zhang, Shun, additional, Zheng, Shun, additional, Vespignani, Alessandro, additional, Chinazzi, Matteo, additional, Davis, Jessica T., additional, Mu, Kunpeng, additional, Pastore y Piontti, Ana, additional, Xiong, Xinyue, additional, Zheng, Andrew, additional, Baek, Jackie, additional, Farias, Vivek, additional, Georgescu, Andreea, additional, Levi, Retsef, additional, Sinha, Deeksha, additional, Wilde, Joshua, additional, Perakis, Georgia, additional, Bennouna, Mohammed Amine, additional, Nze-Ndong, David, additional, Singhvi, Divya, additional, Spantidakis, Ioannis, additional, Thayaparan, Leann, additional, Tsiourvas, Asterios, additional, Sarker, Arnab, additional, Jadbabaie, Ali, additional, Shah, Devavrat, additional, Della Penna, Nicolas, additional, Celi, Leo A., additional, Sundar, Saketh, additional, Wolfinger, Russ, additional, Osthus, Dave, additional, Castro, Lauren, additional, Fairchild, Geoffrey, additional, Michaud, Isaac, additional, Karlen, Dean, additional, Kinsey, Matt, additional, Mullany, Luke C., additional, Rainwater-Lovett, Kaitlin, additional, Shin, Lauren, additional, Tallaksen, Katharine, additional, Wilson, Shelby, additional, Lee, Elizabeth C., additional, Dent, Juan, additional, Grantz, Kyra H., additional, Hill, Alison L., additional, Kaminsky, Joshua, additional, Kaminsky, Kathryn, additional, Keegan, Lindsay T., additional, Lauer, Stephen A., additional, Lemaitre, Joseph C., additional, Lessler, Justin, additional, Meredith, Hannah R., additional, Perez-Saez, Javier, additional, Shah, Sam, additional, Smith, Claire P., additional, Truelove, Shaun A., additional, Wills, Josh, additional, Marshall, Maximilian, additional, Gardner, Lauren, additional, Nixon, Kristen, additional, Burant, John C., additional, Wang, Lily, additional, Gao, Lei, additional, Gu, Zhiling, additional, Kim, Myungjin, additional, Li, Xinyi, additional, Wang, Guannan, additional, Wang, Yueying, additional, Yu, Shan, additional, Reiner, Robert C., additional, Barber, Ryan, additional, Gakidou, Emmanuela, additional, Hay, Simon I., additional, Lim, Steve, additional, Murray, Chris, additional, Pigott, David, additional, Gurung, Heidi L., additional, Baccam, Prasith, additional, Stage, Steven A., additional, Suchoski, Bradley T., additional, Prakash, B. Aditya, additional, Adhikari, Bijaya, additional, Cui, Jiaming, additional, Rodríguez, Alexander, additional, Tabassum, Anika, additional, Xie, Jiajia, additional, Keskinocak, Pinar, additional, Asplund, John, additional, Baxter, Arden, additional, Oruc, Buse Eylul, additional, Serban, Nicoleta, additional, Arik, Sercan O., additional, Dusenberry, Mike, additional, Epshteyn, Arkady, additional, Kanal, Elli, additional, Le, Long T., additional, Li, Chun-Liang, additional, Pfister, Tomas, additional, Sava, Dario, additional, Sinha, Rajarishi, additional, Tsai, Thomas, additional, Yoder, Nate, additional, Yoon, Jinsung, additional, Zhang, Leyou, additional, Abbott, Sam, additional, Bosse, Nikos I., additional, Funk, Sebastian, additional, Hellewell, Joel, additional, Meakin, Sophie R., additional, Sherratt, Katharine, additional, Zhou, Mingyuan, additional, Kalantari, Rahi, additional, Yamana, Teresa K., additional, Pei, Sen, additional, Shaman, Jeffrey, additional, Li, Michael L., additional, Bertsimas, Dimitris, additional, Skali Lami, Omar, additional, Soni, Saksham, additional, Tazi Bouardi, Hamza, additional, Ayer, Turgay, additional, Adee, Madeline, additional, Chhatwal, Jagpreet, additional, Dalgic, Ozden O., additional, Ladd, Mary A., additional, Linas, Benjamin P., additional, Mueller, Peter, additional, Xiao, Jade, additional, Wang, Yuanjia, additional, Wang, Qinxia, additional, Xie, Shanghong, additional, Zeng, Donglin, additional, Green, Alden, additional, Bien, Jacob, additional, Brooks, Logan, additional, Hu, Addison J., additional, Jahja, Maria, additional, McDonald, Daniel, additional, Narasimhan, Balasubramanian, additional, Politsch, Collin, additional, Rajanala, Samyak, additional, Rumack, Aaron, additional, Simon, Noah, additional, Tibshirani, Ryan J., additional, Tibshirani, Rob, additional, Ventura, Valerie, additional, Wasserman, Larry, additional, O’Dea, Eamon B., additional, Drake, John M., additional, Pagano, Robert, additional, Tran, Quoc T., additional, Ho, Lam Si Tung, additional, Huynh, Huong, additional, Walker, Jo W., additional, Slayton, Rachel B., additional, Johansson, Michael A., additional, Biggerstaff, Matthew, additional, and Reich, Nicholas G., additional

Published
2022
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5. The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset

Author

US COVID-19 Forecast Hub Consortium, Cramer, Estee Y., Huang, Yuxin, Wang, Yijin, Ray, Evan L., Cornell, Matthew, Bracher, Johannes, Brennen, Andrea, Rivadeneira, Alvaro J. Castro, Gerding, Aaron, House, Katie, Jayawardena, Dasuni, Kanji, Abdul Hannan, Khandelwal, Ayush, Le, Khoa, Mody, Vidhi, Mody, Vrushti, Niemi, Jarad, Stark, Ariane, Shah, Apurv, Wattanchit, Nutcha, Zorn, Martha W., Reich, Nicholas G., Gneiting, Tilmann, Mühlemann, Anja, Gu, Youyang, Chen, Yixian, Chintanippu, Krishna, Jivane, Viresh, Khurana, Ankita, Kumar, Ajay, Lakhani, Anshul, Mehrotra, Prakhar, Pasumarty, Sujitha, Shrivastav, Monika, You, Jialu, Bannur, Nayana, Deva, Ayush, Jain, Sansiddh, Kulkarni, Mihir, Merugu, Srujana, Raval, Alpan, Shingi, Siddhant, Tiwari, Avtansh, White, Jerome, Adiga, Aniruddha, Hurt, Benjamin, Lewis, Bryan, Marathe, Madhav, Peddireddy, Akhil Sai, Porebski, Przemyslaw, Venkatramanan, Srinivasan, Wang, Lijing, Dahan, Maytal, Fox, Spencer, Gaither, Kelly, Lachmann, Michael, Meyers, Lauren Ancel, Scott, James G., Tec, Mauricio, Woody, Spencer, Srivastava, Ajitesh, Xu, Tianjian, Cegan, Jeffrey C., Dettwiller, Ian D., England, William P., Farthing, Matthew W., George, Glover E., Hunter, Robert H., Lafferty, Brandon, Linkov, Igor, Mayo, Michael L., Parno, Matthew D., Rowland, Michael A., Trump, Benjamin D., Chen, Samuel, Faraone, Stephen V., Hess, Jonathan, Morley, Christopher P., Salekin, Asif, Wang, Dongliang, Zhang-James, Yanli, Baer, Thomas M., Corsetti, Sabrina M., Eisenberg, Marisa C., Falb, Karl, Huang, Yitao, Martin, Emily T., McCauley, Ella, Myers, Robert L., Schwarz, Tom, Gibson, Graham Casey, Sheldon, Daniel, Gao, Liyao, Ma, Yian, Wu, Dongxia, Yu, Rose, Jin, Xiaoyong, Wang, Yu-Xiang, Yan, Xifeng, Chen, YangQuan, Guo, Lihong, Zhao, Yanting, Chen, Jinghui, Gu, Quanquan, Wang, Lingxiao, Xu, Pan, Zhang, Weitong, Zou, Difan, Chattopadhyay, Ishanu, Huang, Yi, Lu, Guoqing, Pfeiffer, Ruth, Sumner, Timothy, Wang, Dongdong, Wang, Liqiang, Zhang, Shunpu, Zou, Zihang, Biegel, Hannah, Lega, Joceline, Hussain, Fazle, Khan, Zeina, Van Bussel, Frank, McConnell, Steve, Guertin, Stephanie L., Hulme-Lowe, Christopher, Nagraj, V. P., Turner, Stephen D., Bejar, Benjamín, Choirat, Christine, Flahault, Antoine, Krymova, Ekaterina, Lee, Gavin, Manetti, Elisa, Namigai, Kristen, Obozinski, Guillaume, Sun, Tao, Thanou, Dorina, Ban, Xuegang, Shi, Yunfeng, Walraven, Robert, Hong, Qi-Jun, Van De Walle, Axel, Ben-Nun, Michal, Riley, Steven, Riley, Pete, Turtle, James, Cao, Duy, Galasso, Joseph, Cho, Jae H., Jo, Areum, DesRoches, David, Forli, Pedro, Hamory, Bruce, Koyluoglu, Ugur, Kyriakides, Christina, Leis, Helen, Milliken, John, Moloney, Michael, Morgan, James, Nirgudkar, Ninad, Ozcan, Gokce, Piwonka, Noah, Ravi, Matt, Schrader, Chris, Shakhnovich, Elizabeth, Siegel, Daniel, Spatz, Ryan, Stiefeling, Chris, Wilkinson, Barrie, Wong, Alexander, Cavany, Sean, España, Guido, Moore, Sean, Oidtman, Rachel, Perkins, Alex, Ivy, Julie S., Mayorga, Maria E., Mele, Jessica, Rosenstrom, Erik T., Swann, Julie L., Kraus, Andrea, Kraus, David, Bian, Jiang, Cao, Wei, Gao, Zhifeng, Ferres, Juan Lavista, Li, Chaozhuo, Liu, Tie-Yan, Xie, Xing, Zhang, Shun, Zheng, Shun, Chinazzi, Matteo, Vespignani, Alessandro, Xiong, Xinyue, Davis, Jessica T., Mu, Kunpeng, Piontti, Ana Pastore Y, Baek, Jackie, Farias, Vivek, Georgescu, Andreea, Levi, Retsef, Sinha, Deeksha, Wilde, Joshua, Zheng, Andrew, Lami, Omar Skali, Bennouna, Amine, Ndong, David Nze, Perakis, Georgia, Singhvi, Divya, Spantidakis, Ioannis, Thayaparan, Leann, Tsiourvas, Asterios, Weisberg, Shane, Jadbabaie, Ali, Sarker, Arnab, Shah, Devavrat, Celi, Leo A., Penna, Nicolas D., Sundar, Saketh, Berlin, Abraham, Gandhi, Parth D., McAndrew, Thomas, Piriya, Matthew, Chen, Ye, Hlavacek, William, Lin, Yen Ting, Mallela, Abhishek, Miller, Ely, Neumann, Jacob, Posner, Richard, Wolfinger, Russ, Castro, Lauren, Fairchild, Geoffrey, Michaud, Isaac, Osthus, Dave, Wolffram, Daniel, Karlen, Dean, Panaggio, Mark J., Kinsey, Matt, Mullany, Luke C., Rainwater-Lovett, Kaitlin, Shin, Lauren, Tallaksen, Katharine, Wilson, Shelby, Brenner, Michael, Coram, Marc, Edwards, Jessie K., Joshi, Keya, Klein, Ellen, Hulse, Juan Dent, Grantz, Kyra H., Hill, Alison L., Kaminsky, Kathryn, Kaminsky, Joshua, Keegan, Lindsay T., Lauer, Stephen A., Lee, Elizabeth C., Lemaitre, Joseph C., Lessler, Justin, Meredith, Hannah R., Perez-Saez, Javier, Shah, Sam, Smith, Claire P., Truelove, Shaun A., Wills, Josh, Gardner, Lauren, Marshall, Maximilian, Nixon, Kristen, Burant, John C., Budzinski, Jozef, Chiang, Wen-Hao, Mohler, George, Gao, Junyi, Glass, Lucas, Qian, Cheng, Romberg, Justin, Sharma, Rakshith, Spaeder, Jeffrey, Sun, Jimeng, Xiao, Cao, Gao, Lei, Gu, Zhiling, Kim, Myungjin, Li, Xinyi, Wang, Yueying, Wang, Guannan, Wang, Lily, Yu, Shan, Jain, Chaman, Bhatia, Sangeeta, Nouvellet, Pierre, Barber, Ryan, Gaikedu, Emmanuela, Hay, Simon, Lim, Steve, Murray, Chris, Pigott, David, Reiner, Robert C., Baccam, Prasith, Gurung, Heidi L., Stage, Steven A., Suchoski, Bradley T., Fong, Chung-Yan, Yeung, Dit-Yan, Adhikari, Bijaya, Cui, Jiaming, Prakash, B. Aditya, Rodríguez, Alexander, Tabassum, Anika, Xie, Jiajia, Asplund, John, Baxter, Arden, Keskinocak, Pinar, Oruc, Buse Eylul, Serban, Nicoleta, Arik, Sercan O., Dusenberry, Mike, Epshteyn, Arkady, Kanal, Elli, Le, Long T., Li, Chun-Liang, Pfister, Tomas, Sinha, Rajarishi, Tsai, Thomas, Yoder, Nate, Yoon, Jinsung, Zhang, Leyou, Wilson, Daniel, Belov, Artur A., Chow, Carson C., Gerkin, Richard C., Yogurtcu, Osman N., Ibrahim, Mark, Lacroix, Timothee, Le, Matthew, Liao, Jason, Nickel, Maximilian, Sagun, Levent, Abbott, Sam, Bosse, Nikos I., Funk, Sebastian, Hellewell, Joel, Meakin, Sophie R., Sherratt, Katharine, Kalantari, Rahi, Zhou, Mingyuan, Karimzadeh, Morteza, Lucas, Benjamin, Ngo, Thoai, Zoraghein, Hamidreza, Vahedi, Behzad, Wang, Zhongying, Pei, Sen, Shaman, Jeffrey, Yamana, Teresa K., Bertsimas, Dimitris, Li, Michael L., Soni, Saksham, Bouardi, Hamza Tazi, Adee, Madeline, Ayer, Turgay, Chhatwal, Jagpreet, Dalgic, Ozden O., Ladd, Mary A., Linas, Benjamin P., Mueller, Peter, Xiao, Jade, Bosch, Jurgen, Wilson, Austin, Zimmerman, Peter, Wang, Qinxia, Wang, Yuanjia, Xie, Shanghong, Zeng, Donglin, Bien, Jacob, Brooks, Logan, Green, Alden, Hu, Addison J., Jahja, Maria, McDonald, Daniel, Narasimhan, Balasubramanian, Politsch, Collin, Rajanala, Samyak, Rumack, Aaron, Simon, Noah, Tibshirani, Ryan J., Tibshirani, Rob, Ventura, Valerie, Wasserman, Larry, Drake, John M., O’Dea, Eamon B., Abu-Mostafa, Yaser, Bathwal, Rahil, Chang, Nicholas A., Chitta, Pavan, Erickson, Anne, Goel, Sumit, Gowda, Jethin, Jin, Qixuan, Jo, HyeongChan, Kim, Juhyun, Kulkarni, Pranav, Lushtak, Samuel M., Mann, Ethan, Popken, Max, Soohoo, Connor, Tirumala, Kushal, Tseng, Albert, Varadarajan, Vignesh, Vytheeswaran, Jagath, Wang, Christopher, Yeluri, Akshay, Yurk, Dominic, Zhang, Michael, Zlokapa, Alexander, Pagano, Robert, Jain, Chandini, Tomar, Vishal, Ho, Lam, Huynh, Huong, Tran, Quoc, Lopez, Velma K., Walker, Jo W., Slayton, Rachel B., Johansson, Michael A., and Biggerstaff, Matthew

Subjects
ddc:510, Mathematics
Abstract

Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages.

Published
2022

6. Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the US

Author

Cramer, Estee Y, primary, Ray, Evan L, additional, Lopez, Velma K, additional, Bracher, Johannes, additional, Brennen, Andrea, additional, Castro Rivadeneira, Alvaro J, additional, Gerding, Aaron, additional, Gneiting, Tilmann, additional, House, Katie H, additional, Huang, Yuxin, additional, Jayawardena, Dasuni, additional, Kanji, Abdul H, additional, Khandelwal, Ayush, additional, Le, Khoa, additional, Mühlemann, Anja, additional, Niemi, Jarad, additional, Shah, Apurv, additional, Stark, Ariane, additional, Wang, Yijin, additional, Wattanachit, Nutcha, additional, Zorn, Martha W, additional, Gu, Youyang, additional, Jain, Sansiddh, additional, Bannur, Nayana, additional, Deva, Ayush, additional, Kulkarni, Mihir, additional, Merugu, Srujana, additional, Raval, Alpan, additional, Shingi, Siddhant, additional, Tiwari, Avtansh, additional, White, Jerome, additional, Abernethy, Neil F, additional, Woody, Spencer, additional, Dahan, Maytal, additional, Fox, Spencer, additional, Gaither, Kelly, additional, Lachmann, Michael, additional, Meyers, Lauren Ancel, additional, Scott, James G, additional, Tec, Mauricio, additional, Srivastava, Ajitesh, additional, George, Glover E, additional, Cegan, Jeffrey C, additional, Dettwiller, Ian D, additional, England, William P, additional, Farthing, Matthew W, additional, Hunter, Robert H, additional, Lafferty, Brandon, additional, Linkov, Igor, additional, Mayo, Michael L, additional, Parno, Matthew D, additional, Rowland, Michael A, additional, Trump, Benjamin D, additional, Zhang-James, Yanli, additional, Chen, Samuel, additional, Faraone, Stephen V, additional, Hess, Jonathan, additional, Morley, Christopher P, additional, Salekin, Asif, additional, Wang, Dongliang, additional, Corsetti, Sabrina M, additional, Baer, Thomas M, additional, Eisenberg, Marisa C, additional, Falb, Karl, additional, Huang, Yitao, additional, Martin, Emily T, additional, McCauley, Ella, additional, Myers, Robert L, additional, Schwarz, Tom, additional, Sheldon, Daniel, additional, Gibson, Graham Casey, additional, Yu, Rose, additional, Gao, Liyao, additional, Ma, Yian, additional, Wu, Dongxia, additional, Yan, Xifeng, additional, Jin, Xiaoyong, additional, Wang, Yu-Xiang, additional, Chen, YangQuan, additional, Guo, Lihong, additional, Zhao, Yanting, additional, Gu, Quanquan, additional, Chen, Jinghui, additional, Wang, Lingxiao, additional, Xu, Pan, additional, Zhang, Weitong, additional, Zou, Difan, additional, Biegel, Hannah, additional, Lega, Joceline, additional, McConnell, Steve, additional, Nagraj, VP, additional, Guertin, Stephanie L, additional, Hulme-Lowe, Christopher, additional, Turner, Stephen D, additional, Shi, Yunfeng, additional, Ban, Xuegang, additional, Walraven, Robert, additional, Hong, Qi-Jun, additional, Kong, Stanley, additional, van de Walle, Axel, additional, Turtle, James A, additional, Ben-Nun, Michal, additional, Riley, Steven, additional, Riley, Pete, additional, Koyluoglu, Ugur, additional, DesRoches, David, additional, Forli, Pedro, additional, Hamory, Bruce, additional, Kyriakides, Christina, additional, Leis, Helen, additional, Milliken, John, additional, Moloney, Michael, additional, Morgan, James, additional, Nirgudkar, Ninad, additional, Ozcan, Gokce, additional, Piwonka, Noah, additional, Ravi, Matt, additional, Schrader, Chris, additional, Shakhnovich, Elizabeth, additional, Siegel, Daniel, additional, Spatz, Ryan, additional, Stiefeling, Chris, additional, Wilkinson, Barrie, additional, Wong, Alexander, additional, Cavany, Sean, additional, España, Guido, additional, Moore, Sean, additional, Oidtman, Rachel, additional, Perkins, Alex, additional, Kraus, David, additional, Kraus, Andrea, additional, Gao, Zhifeng, additional, Bian, Jiang, additional, Cao, Wei, additional, Ferres, Juan Lavista, additional, Li, Chaozhuo, additional, Liu, Tie-Yan, additional, Xie, Xing, additional, Zhang, Shun, additional, Zheng, Shun, additional, Vespignani, Alessandro, additional, Chinazzi, Matteo, additional, Davis, Jessica T, additional, Mu, Kunpeng, additional, y Piontti, Ana Pastore, additional, Xiong, Xinyue, additional, Zheng, Andrew, additional, Baek, Jackie, additional, Farias, Vivek, additional, Georgescu, Andreea, additional, Levi, Retsef, additional, Sinha, Deeksha, additional, Wilde, Joshua, additional, Perakis, Georgia, additional, Bennouna, Mohammed Amine, additional, Nze-Ndong, David, additional, Singhvi, Divya, additional, Spantidakis, Ioannis, additional, Thayaparan, Leann, additional, Tsiourvas, Asterios, additional, Sarker, Arnab, additional, Jadbabaie, Ali, additional, Shah, Devavrat, additional, Penna, Nicolas Della, additional, Celi, Leo A, additional, Sundar, Saketh, additional, Wolfinger, Russ, additional, Osthus, Dave, additional, Castro, Lauren, additional, Fairchild, Geoffrey, additional, Michaud, Isaac, additional, Karlen, Dean, additional, Kinsey, Matt, additional, Mullany, Luke C., additional, Rainwater-Lovett, Kaitlin, additional, Shin, Lauren, additional, Tallaksen, Katharine, additional, Wilson, Shelby, additional, Lee, Elizabeth C, additional, Dent, Juan, additional, Grantz, Kyra H, additional, Hill, Alison L, additional, Kaminsky, Joshua, additional, Kaminsky, Kathryn, additional, Keegan, Lindsay T, additional, Lauer, Stephen A, additional, Lemaitre, Joseph C, additional, Lessler, Justin, additional, Meredith, Hannah R, additional, Perez-Saez, Javier, additional, Shah, Sam, additional, Smith, Claire P, additional, Truelove, Shaun A, additional, Wills, Josh, additional, Marshall, Maximilian, additional, Gardner, Lauren, additional, Nixon, Kristen, additional, Burant, John C., additional, Wang, Lily, additional, Gao, Lei, additional, Gu, Zhiling, additional, Kim, Myungjin, additional, Li, Xinyi, additional, Wang, Guannan, additional, Wang, Yueying, additional, Yu, Shan, additional, Reiner, Robert C, additional, Barber, Ryan, additional, Gakidou, Emmanuela, additional, Hay, Simon I., additional, Lim, Steve, 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Published
2021
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8. Communications and Radar-Supported Transportation Operations and Planning (CAR-STOP) [Phase 2 Project Summary]

Author

Texas Department of Transportation. Research and Technology Implementation Office, United States. Department of Transportation. Federal Highway Administration, Jensen, Darrin, Bhat, Chandra R., Motro, Michael, Kim, Taewan, Kalantari, Rahi, Park, Jinsoo, Oza, Saharsh, Ghosh, Joydeep, Ali, Anum, Kumari, Preeti, Va, Vutha, Prelcic, Nuria G., Heath, Robert W., Lavieri, Patricia S., Dias, Felipe F, Astroza, Sebastian, Vinayak, Pragun, Nair, Gopindra S, Hutchinson, Joseph, Mondal, Aupal, University of Texas at Austin. Center for Transportation Research, Texas Department of Transportation. Research and Technology Implementation Office, United States. Department of Transportation. Federal Highway Administration, Jensen, Darrin, Bhat, Chandra R., Motro, Michael, Kim, Taewan, Kalantari, Rahi, Park, Jinsoo, Oza, Saharsh, Ghosh, Joydeep, Ali, Anum, Kumari, Preeti, Va, Vutha, Prelcic, Nuria G., Heath, Robert W., Lavieri, Patricia S., Dias, Felipe F, Astroza, Sebastian, Vinayak, Pragun, Nair, Gopindra S, Hutchinson, Joseph, Mondal, Aupal, and University of Texas at Austin. Center for Transportation Research

Abstract

A recent report from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration indicates that more than 80% of all annual car crashes could be prevented by vehicular communications. To that end, the focus of this project was to develop a framework (conceptualizations, processes, procedures, and algorithms) to harness and mature sensing and communication technology to improve transportation safety, primarily focused on the development of an advanced driver assistance system (ADAS).

9. Communications and Radar-Supported Transportation Operations and Planning (CAR-STOP) [Phase 1 Project Summary]

Author

Texas Department of Transportation. Research and Technology Implementation Office, United States. Department of Transportation. Federal Highway Administration, Bhat, Chandra, Motro, Michael, Kim, Taewan, Kalantari, Rahi, Ghosh, Joydeep, Choi, Junil, Ali, Anum, Kumari, Preeti, Yeh, Enoch, Wang, Yuyang, Nguyen, Duy H. N., Eltayeb, Mohammed, Heath, Robert W., Lavieri, Patricia S., University of Texas at Austin. Center for Transportation Research, Texas Department of Transportation. Research and Technology Implementation Office, United States. Department of Transportation. Federal Highway Administration, Bhat, Chandra, Motro, Michael, Kim, Taewan, Kalantari, Rahi, Ghosh, Joydeep, Choi, Junil, Ali, Anum, Kumari, Preeti, Yeh, Enoch, Wang, Yuyang, Nguyen, Duy H. N., Eltayeb, Mohammed, Heath, Robert W., Lavieri, Patricia S., and University of Texas at Austin. Center for Transportation Research

Abstract

A recent NHTSA report indicates that more than 80% of all annual car crashes could be prevented by vehicular communications. To that end, the focus of this project was to develop a framework (conceptualizations, processes, procedures, and algorithms) to harness and mature wireless technology to improve transportation safety, with an emphasis on collision warning/collision avoidance (CW/CA) systems.

10. Communications and radar-supported transportation operations and planning : final report.

Author

Texas. Dept. of Transportation. Research and Technology Implementation Office, United States. Federal Highway Administration, Motro, Michael, Kim, Taewan, Kalantari, Rahi, Ghosh, Joydeep, Choi, Junil, Ali, Anum, Kumari, Preeti, Yeh, Enoch, Wang, Yuyang, Lavieri, Patricia S., Nguyen, Duy H. N., Eltayeb, Mohammed, Heath, Robert W., Bhat, Chandra R., University of Texas at Austin. Center for Transportation Research, Texas. Dept. of Transportation. Research and Technology Implementation Office, United States. Federal Highway Administration, Motro, Michael, Kim, Taewan, Kalantari, Rahi, Ghosh, Joydeep, Choi, Junil, Ali, Anum, Kumari, Preeti, Yeh, Enoch, Wang, Yuyang, Lavieri, Patricia S., Nguyen, Duy H. N., Eltayeb, Mohammed, Heath, Robert W., Bhat, Chandra R., and University of Texas at Austin. Center for Transportation Research

Abstract

0-6877, This project designs a conceptual framework to harness and mature wireless technology to improve, transportation safety, with a focus on frontal collision warning/collision avoidance (CW/CA) systems. The, framework identifies components of the technology and its capabilities, and how these components can be, integrated to improve transportation safety.

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