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Natural selection acts ubiquitously on complex human traits, predominantly constraining the occurrence of extreme phenotypes (stabilizing selection). These constrains propagate to DNA sequence variants associated with traits under selection. The genetic imprints of such evolutionary events can thus be detected via combining effect size estimates from genetic association studies and the corresponding allele frequencies. While this approach has been successfully applied to high-level traits, the prevalence and mode of selection acting on molecular traits remains poorly understood. Here, we estimate the action of natural selection on genetic variants associated with metabolite levels, an important layer of molecular traits. By leveraging summary statistics of published genome-wide association studies with large sample sizes, we find strong evidence of stabilizing selection for 15 out of 97 plasma metabolites, with an overrepresentation of amino acids among such cases. Mendelian randomization analysis revealed that metabolites under stronger stabilizing selection display larger effects on key cardiometabolic traits, suggesting that maintaining a healthy cardiometabolic profile may be an important source of selective constraints on the metabolome. Metabolites under strong stabilizing selection in humans are also more conserved in their concentrations among diverse mammalian species, suggesting shared selective forces across micro and macroevolutionary time scales. Finally, we also found evidence for both disruptive and directional selection on specific lipid metabolites, potentially indicating ongoing evolutionary adaptation in humans. Overall, this study demonstrates that variation in metabolite levels among humans is frequently shaped by natural selection and this may be acting indirectly through maintaining cardiometabolic fitness.

While extensively studied in clinical cohorts, the phenotypic consequences of 22q11.2 copy number variants (CNVs) in the general population remain understudied. To address this gap, we performed a phenome-wide association scan in 405’324 unrelated UK Biobank (UKBB) participants using CNV calls from genotyping array. We mapped 236 Human Phenotype Ontology terms linked to any of the 90 genes encompassed by the region to 170 UKBB traits and assessed the association between these traits and the copy-number state of 504 SNP-array probes in the region. We found significant associations for eight continuous and nine binary traits associated under different models (duplication-only, deletion-only, U-shape and mirror model). The causal effect of the expression level of 22q11.2 genes on associated traits was assessed through transcriptome-wide mendelian randomization (TWMR), revealing that increased expression of ARVCF increased BMI. Similarly, increased DGCR6 expression causally reduced mean platelet volume, in line with the corresponding CNV effect. Furthermore, cross-trait multivariable mendelian randomization (MVMR) suggested a predominant role of genuine (horizontal) pleiotropy in the CNV region. Our findings show that within the general population, 22q11.2 CNVs are associated with traits previously linked to genes in the region, with duplications and deletions acting upon traits in different fashion. We also showed that gain or loss of distinct segments within 22q11.2 may impact a trait under different association models. Our results have provided new insights to help further the understanding of the complex 22q11.2 region.

Comparing transcript levels between healthy and diseased individuals allows the identification of differentially expressed genes, which may be causes, consequences or mere correlates of the disease under scrutiny. We propose a method to decompose the observational correlation between gene expression and phenotypes driven by confounders, forward- and reverse causal effects. The bi-directional causal effects between gene expression and complex traits are obtained by Mendelian Randomization integrating summary-level data from GWAS and whole-blood eQTLs. Applying this approach to complex traits reveals that forward effects have negligible contribution. For example, BMI- and triglycerides-gene expression correlation coefficients robustly correlate with trait-to-expression causal effects (rBMI = 0.11, PBMI = 2.0 × 10−51 and rTG = 0.13, PTG = 1.1 × 10−68), but not detectably with expression-to-trait effects. Our results demonstrate that studies comparing the transcriptome of diseased and healthy subjects are more prone to reveal disease-induced gene expression changes rather than disease causing ones., Identification of gene expression changes between healthy and diseased individuals can reveal mechanistic insights and biomarkers. Here, the authors propose a bi-directional transcriptome-wide Mendelian Randomization approach to assess causal effects between gene expression and complex traits.

The genetic underpinning of sexual dimorphism is very poorly understood. The prevalence of many diseases differs between men and women, which could be in part caused by sex-specific genetic effects. Nevertheless, only a few published genome-wide association studies (GWAS) were performed separately in each sex. The reported enrichment of expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) among GWAS–associated SNPs suggests a potential role of sex-specific eQTLs in the sex-specific genetic mechanism underlying complex traits.To explore this scenario, we performed a genome-wide analysis of sex-specific whole blood RNA-seq eQTLs from 3,447 individuals. Among 9 million SNP-gene pairs showing sex-combined associations, we found 18 genes with significant sex-specific cis-eQTLs (FDR 5%). Our phenome-wide association study of the 18 top sex-specific eQTLs on >700 traits unraveled that these eQTLs do not systematically translate into detectable sex-specific trait-associations. Power analyses using real eQTL- and causal effect sizes showed that millions of samples would be necessary to observe sex-specific trait associations that are fully driven by sex-specific cis-eQTLs. Compensatory effects may further hamper their detection. In line with this observation, we confirmed that the sex-specific trait-associations detected so far are not driven by sex-specific cis-eQTLs.

Whereas genome-wide association studies (GWAS) allowed identifying thousands of associations between variants and traits, their success rate in pinpointing causal genes has been disproportionately low. Here, we integrate biobank-scale phenotype data from carriers of a rare copy-number variant (CNV), Mendelian randomization and animal modeling to identify causative genes in a GWAS locus for age at menarche (AaM). We show that the dosage of the 16p11.2 BP4-BP5 interval is correlated positively with AaM in the UK and Estonian biobanks and 16p11.2 clinical cohorts, with a directionally consistent trend for pubertal onset in males. These correlations parallel an increase in reproductive tract disorders in both sexes. In support of these observations, 16p11.2 mouse models display perturbed pubertal onset and structurally altered reproductive organs that track with CNV dose. Further, we report a negative correlation between the 16p11.2 dosage and relative hypothalamic volume in both humans and mice, intimating a perturbation in the gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) axis. Two independent lines of evidence identified candidate causal genes for AaM; Mendelian randomization and agnostic dosage modulation of each 16p11.2 gene in zebrafish gnrh3:egfp models. ASPHD1, expressed predominantly in brain and pituitary gland, emerged as a major phenotype driver; and it is subject to modulation by KCTD13 to exacerbate GnRH neuron phenotype. Together, our data highlight the power of an interdisciplinary approach to elucidate disease etiologies underlying complex traits.

Major biotechnological advances have facilitated a tremendous boost to the collection of (gen-/transcript-/prote-/methyl-/metabol-)omics data in very large sample sizes worldwide. Coordinated efforts have yielded a deluge of studies associating diseases with genetic markers (genome-wide association studies) or with molecular phenotypes. Whereas omics-disease associations have led to biologically meaningful and coherent mechanisms, the identified (non-germline) disease biomarkers may simply be correlates or consequences of the explored diseases. To move beyond this realm, Mendelian randomization provides a principled framework to integrate information on omics- and disease-associated genetic variants to pinpoint molecular traits causally driving disease development. In this review, we show the latest advances in this field, flag up key challenges for the future, and propose potential solutions.

Elevated C-reactive protein (CRP) concentrations in the blood are associated with acute and chronic infections and inflammation. Nevertheless, the functional role of increased CRP in multiple bacterial and viral infections as well as in chronic inflammatory diseases remains unclear. Here, we studied the relationship between CRP and gene expression levels in the blood in 491 individuals from the Estonian Biobank cohort, to elucidate the role of CRP in these inflammatory mechanisms. As a result, we identified a set of 1,614 genes associated with changes in CRP levels with a high proportion of interferon-stimulated genes. Further, we performed likelihood-based causality model selection and Mendelian randomization analysis to discover causal links between CRP and the expression of CRP-associated genes. Strikingly, our computational analysis and cell culture stimulation assays revealed increased CRP levels to drive the expression of complement regulatory protein CD59, suggesting CRP to have a critical role in protecting blood cells from the adverse effects of the immune defence system. Our results show the benefit of integrative analysis approaches in hypothesis-free uncovering of causal relationships between traits., Author summary Chronic inflammation is associated with chronic diseases, morbidity and mortality while lower base inflammation levels are thought to be predictive of healthy aging. Thus, to pursue a long and healthy lifespan, it is essential to understand the inflammatory regulatory mechanisms. To that end, we studied the functional role of C-reactive protein (CRP)–an inflammatory biomarker that is used to measure cardiovascular risk in clinical practice. There is evidence for a strong genetic component of elevated CRP levels but it is still unclear if it has a direct impact on the processes that lead to inflammatory diseases. In order to elucidate the function of CRP in the blood, we used statistical methods for causal inference to infer causal relationships between changes in CRP and gene expression levels. Our statistical analysis and cell culture experiments suggest that CRP drives the expression of complement regulatory protein CD59. Thus, CRP can have a functional role in protecting human blood cells from the adverse effects of the immune defence system.

Previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of stroke, the second leading cause of death, have been conducted in populations of predominantly European ancestry.1,2 We undertook cross-ancestry GWAS meta-analyses of stroke and its subtypes in 110,182 stroke patients (33% non-European) and 1,503,898 control individuals of five ancestries from population- and clinic-based studies, nearly doubling the number of cases in previous stroke GWAS. We identified association signals at 89 independent loci, of which 61 were novel. Effect sizes were overall highly correlated across ancestries. Cross-ancestry fine-mapping, in silico mutagenesis analysis using a novel machine-learning approach,3 transcriptome and proteome-wide association analyses revealed putative causal genes (e.g. SH3PXD2A and FURIN) and variants (e.g. at GRK5 and NOS3). Using a novel three-pronged approach,4 we provided genetic evidence for putative drug effects, highlighting F11, KLKB1, PROC, GP1BA, and VCAM1 as possible targets, with drugs already under investigation for stroke for F11 and PROC. A polygenic score integrating cross-ancestry and ancestry-specific stroke GWAS with vascular risk factor GWAS (iPGS) showed strong prediction of ischemic stroke risk in European and, for the first time, East-Asian populations.5,6 The iPGS performed better than stroke PGS alone and better than previous best iPGS, in Europeans and East-Asians. Transferability of European-specific iPGS to East-Asians was limited. Stroke genetic risk scores were predictive of ischemic stroke independent of clinical risk factors in 52,600 clinical trial participants with cardiometabolic disease and performed considerably better than previous scores, both in Europeans and East-Asians. Altogether our results provide critical insight to inform biology, reveal potential drug targets for intervention, and provide genetic risk prediction tools across ancestries for targeted prevention.