1. Developing a clinical prediction model to modify empirical antibiotics for non-typhoidal Salmonella bloodstream infection in children under-five in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
- Author
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Tack B, Vita D, Mbuyamba J, Ntangu E, Vuvu H, Kahindo I, Ngina J, Luyindula A, Nama N, Mputu T, Im J, Jeon H, Marks F, Toelen J, Lunguya O, Jacobs J, and Van Calster B
- Subjects
- Humans, Democratic Republic of the Congo epidemiology, Infant, Child, Preschool, Male, Prospective Studies, Female, Infant, Newborn, Salmonella drug effects, Salmonella isolation & purification, Salmonella Infections drug therapy, Salmonella Infections microbiology, Salmonella Infections epidemiology, Anti-Bacterial Agents therapeutic use, Bacteremia drug therapy, Bacteremia microbiology
- Abstract
Background: Non-typhoidal Salmonella (NTS) frequently cause bloodstream infection in children under-five in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in malaria-endemic areas. Due to increasing drug resistance, NTS are often not covered by standard-of-care empirical antibiotics for severe febrile illness. We developed a clinical prediction model to orient the choice of empirical antibiotics (standard-of-care versus alternative antibiotics) for children admitted to hospital in settings with high proportions of drug-resistant NTS., Methods: Data were collected during a prospective cohort study in children (> 28 days-< 5 years) admitted with severe febrile illness to Kisantu district hospital, DR Congo. The outcome variable was blood culture confirmed NTS bloodstream infection; the comparison group were children without NTS bloodstream infection. Predictors were selected a priori based on systematic literature review. The prediction model was developed with multivariable logistic regression; a simplified scoring system was derived. Internal validation to estimate optimism-corrected performance was performed using bootstrapping and net benefits were calculated to evaluate clinical usefulness., Results: NTS bloodstream infection was diagnosed in 12.7% (295/2327) of enrolled children. The area under the curve was 0.79 (95%CI: 0.76-0.82) for the prediction model, and 0.78 (0.85-0.80) for the scoring system. The estimated calibration slopes were 0.95 (model) and 0.91 (scoring system). At a decision threshold of 20% NTS risk, the prediction model and scoring system had 57% and 53% sensitivity, and 85% specificity. The net benefit for decisions thresholds < 30% ranged from 2.4 to 3.9 per 100 children., Conclusion: The model predicts NTS bloodstream infection and can support the choice of empiric antibiotics to include coverage of drug-resistant NTS, in particular for decision thresholds < 30%. External validation studies are needed to investigate generalizability., Trial Registration: DeNTS study, clinicaltrials.gov: NCT04473768 (registration 16/07/2020) and TreNTS study, clinicaltrials.gov: NCT04850677 (registration 20/04/2021)., Competing Interests: Declarations. Ethics approval and consent to participate: The studies were ethically approved by the Ecole de Santé Public Kinshasa (144/2020, 134/2021), the Institutional Review Board of ITM (1419/20, 1483/21) and the Ethics Committee of Antwerp University (20/37/465, 21/18/236). Written informed consent was given by caretakers of before enrollment. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests., (© 2025. The Author(s).)
- Published
- 2025
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