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IFPRP, Development Strategies and Governance (DSG), The “Foresight for Food Markets: Developing and Implementing Market Forecasting Methods/Models with Hands-on Training at the FPMU” is an element of Integrated Food Policy Research Program (IFPRP). Originally signed in 2016 between the Government of Bangladesh (GoB) and the Joint Venture (JV) comprising the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), the Bangladesh Institute of the Development Studies (BIDS), and the University of Illinois, IFPRP was extended and modified in subsequent periods. The most recent updated contract between the GoB and the JV was signed in mid-2022. Deliverable 4.3, Foresight for Food Markets: Developing and Implementing Market Forecasting Methods/Models with Hands-on Training at the FPMU is one of the new deliverables included in the updated contract. Rising prices of essential commodities affect consumer welfare and pose a serious challenge to the Government of Bangladesh. Knowing prices of essentials in advance would allow the government to take necessary measures to restrain the extent of price increases or to mitigate effects of rising prices; such measures could include provisions of direct distributions of rice and wheat through social safety net programs or of subsidized open market sales on the one hand and engaging in direct imports of essentials or easing import restrictions for the private sector, on the other. Because price fluctuations are a feature of a free market, there is a persistent need for the government to be able to project consumer prices in advance. Accordingly, it is important that in addition to receiving estimates prepared by external experts, the government has the ability to obtain its own price projections; the government should have the estimates when it needs them and for commodities for which such information is needed. Against this backdrop, IFPRP is providing hands-on training on price projection techniques to officials from the Food Planning and Monitoring Unit (FPMU), the Directorate General

IFPRP, Markets, Trade, and Institutions (MTI); Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Poverty, Gender, and Inclusion (PGI); SAR, Rice plays a central role in the diet in Bangladesh and as a source of income for farmers. Although Bangladesh has largely liberalized international trade in rice, it maintains a public food distribution system to stablize prices, distributing an average of 2 million tons of rice per year at a cost of almost US$ 800 million per year. This study explores whether alternative policies could achieve similar stabilization at a lower cost. It uses a stochastic spatial-equilibrium model of rice markets to simulate monthly prices in eight regions of the country. Stochastic shocks are used to simulate fluctuations in regional production, replicating historical patterns at the region-season level, as well as inter-regional correlation in production shocks. It also simulates fluctuation in world rice prices, mimicking the mean, variance, and serial correlation of historical wholesale prices of rice in Delhi. Public procurement and distribution follow historic averages by month and region. Private storage is represented by a simplified version of rational expectations models, in which net storage is a non-linear function of availability in the previous month.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry, Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Transformation Strategies, Shrimp is Bangladesh’s main agricultural export and makes a substantial contribution to the economy of southern Bangladesh, but the sector has a checkered history. Bangladesh’s shrimp production and exports have been in steady decline, since peaking in the early 2010’s. Most shrimp exports from Bangladesh are used by the food service and niche ethnic markets in Europe. The complex nature of shrimp supply chains in Bangladesh, comprised of hundreds of thousands of small polyculture farms and tens of thousands of small traders, make it difficult to implement tracea bility and certification initiatives – now a prerequisite for entry into most supermarket supply chains. This report provides an overview of the sector and the challenges it faces, drawing on secondary and survey data, reviews of government reports and academic literature. We also report the findings of an expert consultation conducted to identify key constraints and potential solutions. The consensus among industry stakeholders who were part of the expert consultations is that issues related to the supply and quality of shrimp seed and pond management practices represent some of the most pressing, yet relatively simple-to-solve challenges currently faced by the sector. This would serve as the foundation for establishing traceability and certification processes. Previous interventions aimed at upgrading production practices (such as promoting stocking of disease-free shrimp seed) and facilitating disintermediation and transparency in the supply chain (such as by establishing producer groups, shrimp collection centers, and contracts with processors), have met with limited success. We outline potential interventions and partners that might offer scalable solutions enabling small shrimp farmers to access global markets.

PR, IFPRI3; ISI; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies, Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Transformation Strategies; Markets, Trade, and Institutions (MTI); Food and Nutrition Policy

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; CRP2, MTID; PIM, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), We examined the impact of COVID-19 on food value chains in Uganda, using the case of dairy and maize value chains. These two are important value chains in Uganda (in terms of contribution to food and nutrition security and export earnings), yet distinct in terms of terms of market orientation, organization, degree of vertical coordination and institutional setup.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance; G Cross-cutting gender theme; CSUCSeS, SAR, Driven by the need to produce more food for an ever-increasing population that is further marred with declining and degrading natural resource base, adapting to and mitigating climate change have posed a big challenge. It is an established fact that in agriculture, fertilizers, flooded rice cultivation, energy use in irrigation, tillage, and enteric emissions from ruminant animals are the main contributors of greenhouse gases, which accounts to about one-fourth of the total emissions. The evolution of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) emerged as a scientific response to this multi-headed hydra, which helps achieve higher production with reduced emission. The fact remains that the small farm holders of South Asia, who are already facing several non-climatic stresses, have limited capacity to adopt new technologies. There are a host of barriers in the form of limited access to natural resources, information, finance, and above all, low human capital that limit the adoption of technology. The global community is aware of these climate change challenges and has initiated programs to overcome these challenges across the world. In this context, and to meet the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) related to climate change mitigation and adaptation, there is a need for evidence-based research that have the potential to bring about transformative change in agriculture and food systems.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; IFPRP; CRP2; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance, DSGD; SAR; PIM, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), Bangladesh has a long history of catering to the consumption needs of its population through public distribution of food-grains—rice and wheat—stored across an extensive network of warehouses all over the country. This network has its roots in the Bengal famine, but now performs a variety of functions ranging from price support to providing a safety net against crises. However, the storage infrastructure is old, with many warehouses having originated some sixty years ago. The food security situation in Bangladesh has also improved remarkably from the time when this warehousing network was established. Finally, there have been remarkable improve-ments in both technology and management of grain storage that have increased overall efficiency.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; CRP2; IFPRP; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies, DSGD; MTID; PIM; SAR, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), Bangladesh has a complex rice value chain consisting of farmers, upstream paddy wholesalers and intermediaries, millers, and downstream rice traders, wholesalers and retailers. Each of these actors serve distinct functions and have lines of trade that affect their stock turnover in different ways. There is a lack of complete information on the volume of rice traded and stored by the private sec-tor. This leads to difficulties in the timeliness of requisite policy actions on the part of the govern-ment. When rice prices spike, the typical response has been to lay the blame at the feet of millers and traders. For the government, it is important to have a general picture of the level of private stocks in a given year to ensure appropriate adjustments in procurement, distribution and import de-cisions can be made to meet their food security and price stabilization objectives.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; DCA; IFPRP; CRP2, DSGD; PIM; SAR, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), Based on an extensive survey, this study assesses the current conditions of all three types of government owned warehouses: the silos, Central Storage Depots (CSDs), and Local Supply Depots (LSDs). Using a large team of civil engineers as enumerators, a detailed set of information is generated about the functionality, repair needs, as well as alternative uses of all public warehousing facilities. The data generated from the survey fed into the production of a user-friendly GIS database that encompasses the mapping of all storage facilities, along with functionality indicators and summary statistics from the survey. The comprehensive repair estimates generated in the course of this study, along with its supplementary GIS tool, can serve as important inputs to strategic policy decisions related to the public food grain storage system in the country.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; MyanmarSSP; CRP2; MAPSA; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies, MTID; PIM, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), Rural out-migration to both domestic and international destinations counts among the key phenomena that defined a decade of transformation in Myanmar from the 2011 economic reforms until the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. We analyze data from four surveys conducted in different areas of rural Myanmar from 2015 to 2018, along with relevant literature, to highlight trends in migration and its contributions to economic growth and rural development. Studied areas include Mon State, as well as parts of the Ayeyarwady Delta, the Central Dry Zone, and Shan State.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; CRP2; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance; IFPRP, DSGD; SAR; PIM; MTID, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), Price instability is a fact of life. In a market economy, domestic prices change in response to changes in supply, consumer preferences, policy, world prices, and other factors. Crop prices tend to be particularly volatile because harvests occur only once or a few times per year and because the size of the harvest varies due to weather, prices, and other factors. For internationally-traded commodities, volatility in world prices can be another source of instability in domestic prices.

Non-PR, 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance, MTID; PIM, Este documento es parte de una consultoría del IFPRI con el Banco Mundial para apoyar al gobierno de Argentina, y en particular al Ministerio de Agricultura, Ganadería y Pesca (MAGyP), en el análisis de los derechos o impuestos de exportación (DEXs), llamados también retenciones en la Argentina. Este es un tema con importantes implicaciones políticas, económicas y sociales. Para varios grupos del sector agropecuario es una reivindicación sectorial central, aunque tiene repercusiones económicas y sociales diferentes (y no todas en la misma dirección) dentro de ese sector, como se verá más adelante. Las retenciones estuvieron en el centro del conflicto con el campo en 2008 en relación con la resolución 125 de DEXs móviles en función de los precios internacionales. El gobierno que se inició a fines de 2015, en línea con los pedidos de varios sectores de productores agropecuarios, redujo los DEXs pero luego tuvo que revertir, al menos parcialmente, esa medida debido a la crisis económica y los problemas fiscales que lo llevaron a recurrir al FMI en 2018. A partir de las necesidades de consolidación fiscal derivadas de la crisis de deuda por la que atraviesa el país, el actual gobierno de Argentina anunció una serie de medidas fiscales que impactan a diversos sectores de la economía, incluida la agricultura, a través de la aprobación, en diciembre de 2019, de la Ley de Solidaridad Social y Reactivación Productiva (Ley N ° 27.541). La tragedia económica y social generada por la pandemia actual está poniendo enorme presión sobre los recursos y servicios públicos, lo que puede requerir una reevaluación de las medidas fiscales tomadas. El sector agropecuario es el principal exportador de Argentina, y una fuente de vitalidad productiva que puede ser aún más relevante para el país en el actual contexto recesivo mundial. Por ende, es importante asegurar que pueda sostener su dinamismo productivo, para mantener el empleo y la seguridad alimentaria en el país. Al mismo tiempo los