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The soil seed bank is a major component of plant communities. However, long-term analyses of the dynamics of the seed bank and the ensuing vegetation are rare. Here, we studied the dynamics in plant communities with high dominance of annuals in Mediterranean, semiarid, and arid ecosystems for nine consecutive years. For annuals, we hypothesized that the density of the seed bank would be more stable than the density of the standing herbaceous vegetation. Moreover, we predicted that differences in temporal variability between the seed bank and the vegetation would increase with aridity, where year-to-year rainfall variability is higher. We found that the temporal variability at the population level (assessed as the standard deviation of the loge-transformed density) of the nine dominant annuals in each site did not differ between the seed bank and the ensuing vegetation in any of the sites. For the total density of annuals, patterns depended on aridity. In the Mediterranean site, the temporal variability was similar in the seed bank and the vegetation (0.40 vs. 0.40). Still, in the semiarid and arid sites, variability in the seed bank was lower than in the vegetation (0.49 vs. 1.01 and 0.63 vs. 1.38, respectively). This difference between the population-level patterns and the total density of annuals can be related to the lower population synchrony in their seed bank. In contrast, for the herbaceous perennials (all species combined), the seed bank variability was higher than in the vegetation. Overall, our results highlight the role of the seed bank in buffering the annual vegetation density with increasing climatic uncertainty typical in aridity gradients. This role is crucial under the increasing uncertainty imposed by climatic change in the region.

Ecological theory predicts that the soil seed bank stabilises the composition of annual plant communities in the face of environmental variability. However, long-term data on the community dynamics in the seed bank and the standing vegetation are needed to test this prediction. We tested the hypothesis that the composition of the seed bank undergoes lower temporal variability than the standing vegetation in a nine-year study in Mediterranean, semi-arid, and arid ecosystems. The composition of the seed bank was estimated by collecting soil cores from the studied sites on an annual basis. Seedling emergence under optimal watering conditions was measured in each soil core for three consecutive years, to account for seed dormancy. In all sites, the composition of the seed bank differed from the vegetation throughout the years. Small-seeded and dormant-seeded species had a higher frequency in the seed bank than in the standing vegetation. In contrast, functional group membership (grasses vs. forbs) did not explain differences in species frequency between the seed bank and the vegetation after controlling for differences between grasses and forbs in seed mass and seed dormancy. Contrary to predictions, the magnitude of year-to-year variability (the mean compositional dissimilarity between consecutive years) was not lower in the seed bank than in the vegetation in all sites. However, long-term compositional trends in the seed bank were weaker than in the vegetation in the Mediterranean and semi-arid sites. In the arid site where year-to-year variability was highest, no long-term trends were observed. Overall, the effect of the seed bank on the temporal variability of the vegetation in annual communities depends on site conditions and time scale. While the year-to-year variability of the seed bank is similar to the vegetation, the soil seed bank can buffer long-term trends.