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To link to full-text access for this article, visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2005.01.019 Byline: Andrea Carriero (a), Carlo A. Favero (a)(b), Iryna Kaminska (a) Abstract: In this paper we develop on the VAR framework, originally proposed by Campbell and Shiller (J. Political Econom 95 (1987) 1062) to evaluate the Expectations Theory, along three dimensions: the use of a testing method based on a real-time procedure, the measurement of the risk premium, the specification of the implicit monetary policy maker's reaction function. We use financial factors and macroeconomic information to construct a test of the theory based on simulating investors' effort to use the model in 'real-time' to forecast future monetary policy rates. The application of our approach to a monthly sample of US data from the eighties onward leads us to conclude that the deviation from the ET are very rarely significant and that fluctuations of risk premia are not large. Author Affiliation: (a) IGIER, Bocconi University, Via Salasco 5, Milan 20124, Italy (b) CEPR, 90-98 Goswell Road, London EC1V 7RR, UK

The purpose of the research is to develop a new methodological basis for identifying, analyzing and solving problems of international corporations export-import activities and to ground the directions for ensuring their business excellence. The approach originality provides introduction of a conceptual model that aims to eliminate the negative symptoms of international corporations export-import activities based on the results of comprehensive market research, effectiveness of export-import activities and calculation of the integrated indicator of business excellence. The leading corporations of Slovakia and India in the production of bi-axially oriented polypropylene (BOPP) films were the primary basis for this study. The results of the research showed the need to implement a system of managerial innovation for reasoning the directions of ensuring international corporations business excellence. This is achieved because of using logically formalized methods and provides the improvement of organizational and structural interaction of management entities in the process of solving export-import activity problems. Important factors for ensuring business excellence are also the optimization of export and import costs, as well as an increase in export revenue for Slovak companies, and an increase in market share and cost optimization for Indian companies. The practical value of the obtained results is to develop a set of managerial innovations that can improve the efficiency of export-import activities and improve international corporations business. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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We estimate a structural term‐structure model of U.S. real rates, where arbitrageurs accommodate demand pressures exerted by domestic and foreign official investors. Official demand affects rates by altering the aggregate price of duration risk, and thereby bond risk premiums. Although foreign central banks' demand contributed to reduce long‐term real rates mainly in the years prior to the global‐financial crisis, the Federal Reserve's demand lowered rates during the quantitative easing period. Overall, the two‐factor model, augmented to account for changing liquidity conditions, offers a good representation of real rates during the 2001–16 period; however, we flag some caveats and possible extensions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article combines a Structural Vector Autoregression with a no-arbitrage approach to build a multifactor Affine Term Structure Model (ATSM). The resulting No-Arbitrage Structural Vector Autoregressive (NASVAR) model implies that expected excess returns are driven by structural macroeconomic shocks. This is in contrast with a standard ATSM, in which agents are concerned with non-structural risks. As a simple application, we study the effects of supply, demand and monetary policy shocks on the UK yield curve. We show that all structural shocks affect the slope of the yield curve, with demand and supply shocks accounting for a large part of the time variation in bond yields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Research Papers of the Wroclaw University of Economics / Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wroclawiu is the property of Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny we Wroclawiu and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

During 2004 and 2005, long-horizon interest rates fell sharply in major international government bond markets (Greenspan's “conundrum”). This common fall mainly reflected lower long real rates. To investigate possible causes, the authors apply a no-arbitrage affine modeling framework to understanding the UK real term structure. The authors find that time-varying term premia are important in explaining movements in long real forward rates. And, although there is evidence that long-horizon expected short real rates declined over the conundrum period, the authors’ results suggest that lower term premia played the dominant role. This could be consistent with the so-called “search for yield” and excess liquidity explanations for the conundrum. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]