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Climate change is causing rapid warming in the Arctic, which, alongside other physical, socio-economic, cultural, geopolitical, and technological factors, is driving change in the far north. This research presents a conceptual model summarizing Arctic change factors which in turn was used in the design of a Delphi exercise which leveraged a variety of experts to forecast trajectories in different parts of the Arctic. Based on these experts' expectations for economic and governance outcomes by 2050, we find that our results illustrate the "many Arctics" concept or some of the ways in which the Arctic is heterogenous now, and perhaps becoming increasingly so in the future. Sub-regions of the Arctic differed in expert expectations about the future of resource extraction, tourism, Indigenous self-determination, and military activity, among other outcomes. This work also discusses the post-2022 geopolitical situation and some potential implications of "many Arctics" for policy and future governance., (© 2024. This is a U.S. Government work and not under copyright protection in the US; foreign copyright protection may apply.)

Objectives: The spine is the most common site of bone metastases in differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC). The role of surgery in the management of cervical spine (C-spine) metastases (CSpM) has not been adequately explored., Methods: This is a retrospective cohort study at a tertiary referral center from 2002 to 2018. Inclusion criteria were pathologic diagnosis of DTC and imaging/pathologic diagnosis of CSpM. Statistical analysis utilized t tests for continuous variables and χ 2 tests for categorical variables. Survival analysis was conducted using Kaplan-Meier curves with univariate and multivariate Cox regressions., Results: Fifty patients with DTC and CSpM were identified. Of those, 16 underwent surgical resection of the C-spine, whereas 34 did not. The most common presenting symptom was neck pain (N = 37, 74%). Patients in the surgery group were more likely to report a subjective improvement of symptoms (P < .01) and to have local (P < .01) and systemic (P = .04) disease control. Five-year overall survival was 44.7% for the surgery group (95% confidence interval [CI]: 17.1-69.3) and 11.1% (95% CI: 2.1-28.8) for the nonsurgery group (P = .01). The strongest risk factor for improved overall survival after C-spine metastasis was local disease control at the C-spine (multivariate hazard ratio [HR] = 0.32, 95% CI: 0.12-0.85, P = .02). Surgical intervention was significantly associated with improved survival on both univariate (HR = 0. 35, 95% CI: 0.15-0.82, P = .02) and multivariate (HR = 0.37, 95% CI: 0.14-0.98, P = .04) analysis., Conclusion: Surgical management of CSpM in differentiated thyroid cancers is associated with significantly improved local disease control and overall survival. Referral to spine surgeons should be considered after diagnosis., Level of Evidence: IV. Laryngoscope, 131:E1741-E1747, 2021., (@ 2020 American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society Inc, “The Triological Society” and American Laryngological Association (ALA).)

We sought to determine the incidence and location of human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated anogenital disease in women with HPV-positive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) via a retrospective cohort study with prospective contact to update history at Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota. Females undergoing treatment for nonmetastatic HPV-positive OPSCC from 2011 to 2019 were identified. Clinical history and outcomes were abstracted from medical records. Patients without documented anogenital history were contacted, consented, and administered a survey, and external records were requested and reviewed. Seventeen of 46 patients (37.0%) had a history of anogenital HPV-associated disease, and 16 of 17 (94.1%) required procedures to diagnose or treat HPV lesions. The cervix was the most common site (16/17, 94.1%). Procedures included colposcopy (n = 6), cervical excision (n = 3), cryotherapy (n = 4), and hysterectomy (n = 3). One case of fatal cervical carcinoma was noted, diagnosed 1 year following OPSCC. Three of 17 (17.6%) had HPV-related vulvovaginal disease, and 1 of 17 had anal disease. Patients with a history of HPV-positive OPSCC may be at elevated risk for HPV-associated anogenital disease.

Importance: Regional lymph node metastasis remains an important prognostic factor in patients with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC). Although survival among patients with regional metastasis in human papillomavirus (HPV)-related OPSCC is more favorable compared with patients who are HPV negative, prognostic variables associated with failure in patients with single-node metastasis are not known., Objective: To evaluate recurrence and survival in patients with HPV-related OPSCC with single-lymph node metastasis treated with transoral surgery., Design, Setting, and Participants: A retrospective cohort study was conducted of 207 adults with newly diagnosed p16-positive OPSCC and pathology-confirmed single-node disease who underwent surgical resection with or without adjuvant therapy at 2 tertiary academic medical centers from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2016. Statistical analysis was performed from September 1, 2018, to September 1, 2020., Interventions: Surgery alone (n = 59), surgery with adjuvant radiation (n = 75), or surgery with adjuvant chemoradiation (n = 73)., Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was regional recurrence. Secondary outcomes included overall survival, any recurrence, and identification of factors associated with regional recurrence and overall survival., Results: Among 207 patients, 178 (86%) were men, with a median age of 57 years (range, 35-82 years) at the time of surgery. Median follow-up was 36.2 months (range, 7-127 months). Regional recurrence occurred in 11 patients (5%). Of these, 1 patient (9%) was lost to follow-up after diagnosis, 1 (9%) was treated with palliative chemotherapy, and 9 (82%) were treated with curative intent. Ultimately, 7 patients received successful salvage treatment, and 3 died with disease. Overall, there were 21 patients (10%) with any recurrence, with 4 patients (19%) experiencing local recurrence, 11 (52%) experiencing regional recurrence, and 6 (29%) experiencing distant metastasis. The 5-year overall survival was 95% (95% CI, 89%-98%) for all patients. Older age (odds ratio [OR], 1.2; 95% CI, 1.1-1.2), advanced T stage (OR, 3.5; 95% CI, 0.9-14.0), and positive margins (OR, 10.9; 95% CI, 1.8-67.5) were associated with increased regional recurrence. Extranodal extension (OR, 0.2; 95% CI, 0.04-0.8), lymph node size greater than 3 cm (OR, 0.2; 95% CI, 0.1-0.7), and adjuvant therapy (OR, 0.08; 95% CI, 0.02-0.4) were associated with decreased regional recurrence. Advanced comorbidities (hazard ratio, 6.20; 95% CI, 1.4-27.7), lymphovascular invasion (hazard ratio, 4.7; 95% CI, 1.0-21.2), and regional recurrence (hazard ratio, 16.0; 95% CI, 3.1-82.0) were associated with worse overall survival., Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this cohort study suggest that patients with HPV-related OPSCC and single-node disease undergoing surgical resection with or without adjuvant treatment have excellent survival. Adjuvant therapy appears to improve regional control. Among patients with regional recurrence of OPSCC, there is a high rate of successful salvage treatment.

Objective To describe management and oncologic outcomes for patients who develop locoregional recurrence (LRR) or distant metastasis (DM) following transoral robotic surgery for human papilloma virus (HPV)-positive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC). Study Design Case series with chart review. Setting Tertiary care referral center. Subjects and Methods A total of 286 patients with HPV-positive OPSCC who underwent transoral robotic surgery-based treatment from May 2007 to May 2015. Results Of 286 patients (12.2%), 35 met inclusion criteria. Of these, 19 experienced an LRR and 16 developed a DM; 2 patients with LRR subsequently developed DM. In those patients with an LRR, 79% had T1/T2 tumors, and 47% had N0/N1 nodal disease, compared with 75% and 6% in the DM group, respectively. The median time to LRR or DM was 0.6 years (interquartile range [IQR], 0.4-1.0) and 1.8 years (IQR, 1.0-2.1), respectively. Salvage treatment with intent to cure was attempted in 23 patients (16 LRR, 7 DM). The median time from LRR or DM to last follow-up for the 18 patients who were still alive after salvage was 1.9 years (IQR, 0.4-3.8; range, 7 days-6.2 years). Estimated cancer-specific survival rates at 3 years following intent-to-cure treatment were 63% (95% CI, 39-100; number still at risk, 5) in the LRR group and 100% (95% CI, 100-100; number still at risk, 2) in the DM group. Conclusion Overall, LRR and DM for HPV-positive OPSCC following transoral robotic surgery-based therapy are infrequent. In our subset of patients who underwent intent-to-cure treatment, cancer-specific survival rates were favorable. Therefore, aggressive salvage treatment for LRR and DM for HPV-positive OPSCC should be recommended for appropriate candidates.

Behavioral economics is based on the idea that individuals' decisions are affected by systematic and predictable cognitive biases and that these same biases can be leveraged to change behavior and improve decision-making. Insights from behavioral economics have been used to encourage a range of desired behaviors but have rarely been used in disaster preparedness and response, though traditional efforts by public health practitioners have failed to increase adoption of key preparedness behaviors. In this work, we aim to show how some of the key concepts in the behavioral economics literature are applicable to behaviors related to disaster preparedness and response, and we present ideas for behavioral economics-based interventions that we vetted with public health officials. Two of the best-received interventions were applications of social norms approaches, which leverage social influence bias, and commitment devices, which leverage present bias and loss aversion. Although the current evidence base for the applications of concepts from behavioral economics in disaster preparedness and response is weak, behavioral economics has achieved positive results in similar decision-making contexts. The low cost and potentially high impact of behavioral economics-based interventions warrant further investigation and testing. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;page 1 of 7).

Objectives/hypothesis: To evaluate the utility of positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT) for staging the neck in the preoperative setting by comparing it to both CT/magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and pathologic staging., Study Design: Retrospective review., Methods: Seventy-one patients with initial diagnosis of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma having preoperative MR or CT imaging and PET/CT with subsequent bilateral neck dissection as part of primary treatment (142 neck dissections). Comparison of cervical nodal metastases based on three separate staging systems: preoperative CT and/or MRI scan, preoperative PET/CT, and pathology., Results: Both CT/MRI scans and PET/CT scans statistically predicted pathologic outcomes (P = 0.0001, P = 0.0001, respectively) using Chi square analysis. There was a statistically significant improvement in the prediction of true pathologic disease using PET/CT compared to CT and/or MRI alone (P = 0.005). In a subgroup analysis including only the contralateral neck, this significance persisted (P = 0.013). McNemar's test revealed that subsequent detection of bilateral neck disease by PET/CT scan was significantly superior to MRI or CT alone (P = 0.023)., Conclusion: In pathologically positive necks, PET/CT was statistically more reliable at identifying positive disease than CT or MRI alone. Furthermore, such a result is achieved without a statistically significant difference in false positivity between PET/CT and CT or MRI. This suggests that PET/CT positivity, despite negative clinical exam and CT/MRI findings, may be more likely to signify pathologic disease and require appropriate treatment., (© 2013 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.)

Objective: Turbinate reduction via microdebrider assisted turbinoplasty (MAIT) or radiofrequency assisted (RFA) turbinoplasty fails to address nasal obstruction caused by bony deformities of the inferior turbinate. Procedures such as Mabry's turbinoplasty, although effective, are challenging to perform. Other procedures such as partial or total turbinectomies may result in prolonged crusting and atrophic rhinitis. We demonstrate the safety and efficacy of inferior turbinate bone removal with an ultrasonic bone aspirator., Study Design: Retrospective Review and Prospective Case Series with Patient Questionnaire., Methods: The SONOPET ultrasonic bone aspirator (MIWATEC Co., Ltd.) utilize sultrasonic waves to emulsify bone while concurrent irrigation and microsuction of the bone particles produces a clean surgical field. This enables precise, graded removal of the inferior turbinate bone under direct visualization without thermal or mechanical injury to the surrounding soft tissue or mucosa. We describe the first application of this technology to turbinate bone reduction., Results: No individuals experienced delayed healing, infection, scarring or other complications. Improvements in nasal obstruction varied depending upon the procedures being concurrently performed such as septoplasty, functional endoscopic sinus surgery, nasal valve repair and rhinoplasty., Conclusions: Ultrasonic bone aspiration turbinoplasty is a safe and effective addition to the techniques employed for inferior turbinate reduction. Moreover, this technique addresses actual deformities in the turbinate bone which cannot be effectively treated through microdebrider or radiofrequency-assisted turbinoplasty. The technique is simpler than conventional turbinoplasty and avoids the complications associated with turbinate resection.