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Seasonal climate forecasts (forecasts) aim to reduce climate-related productivity risk by helping farmers make decisions that minimise losses in poor years and maximise profits in good years. Most Australian forecast valuations have focused on fertiliser decisions to wheat operations, and few assessments have evaluated the benefit of incremental improvements of forecast skill. These gaps have limited our understanding of forecast value to the broader agriculture sector and the benefit of investments to improve forecast skill. To address these gaps, we consistently assessed forecast value for seven Australian case studies (southern grains, northern grains, southern beef, northern beef, lamb, cotton, and sugar). We implemented a three-stage methodology which consisted of engagement with industry practitioners; modelling production under different climatic and environmental conditions; and economic modelling to evaluate forecast value for eleven levels of forecast skill. Our results show that forecast value was often low and highly variable. Value was found to vary based on forecast attributes (forecast skill, resolution and state), industry application and prevailing conditions (environmental and market). This is the first Australian valuation study where the same methodological approach was applied across multiple industries, incremental improvements in skill were valued, and prevailing conditions were explicitly evaluated for impact on value.

Understanding the drivers of soil organic carbon (SOC) change over time and confidence to predict changes in SOC are essential to the development and long-term viability of SOC trading schemes. This study investigated temporal changes in total SOC, total nitrogen (N), and carbon (C) fractions (particulate organic carbon - POC, resistant organic carbon - ROC and humus organic carbon - HOC) over a 16-year period for four contrasting farming systems in a low rainfall environment (424 mm) at Condobolin, Australia. The farming systems were 1) conventional tillage mixed farming (CT); 2) reduced tillage mixed farming (RT); 3) continuous cropping (CC); and 4) perennial pasture (PP). The SOC dynamics were also modelled using APSIM C and N modules, to determine the accuracy of this model. Results are presented in the context of land managers participating in Australian climate change mitigation schemes. There was an increase in SOC for all farming systems over the first 12 years (total organic C, TOC% at 0–10 cm increased from 1.33% to 1.77%), which was predominately in the POC% fraction (POC% at 0–10 cm increased from 0.14% to 0.5%). Between 2012 and 2015, there was a decrease in SOC back to starting levels (TOC = 1.22% POC = 0.12% at 0–10 cm) in all systems. The PP system had higher TOC%, POC% and HOC% levels on average and higher SOC stocks to 30 cm depth at the final measurement in 2015 (PP = 30.43 t C ha−1; cropping systems = 23.71 t C ha−1), compared to the other farming systems. There was a decrease in TN% over time in all farming systems except PP. The average C:N increased from 14.1 in 1999 to 19.7 in 2012, after which time the SOC levels decreased and C:N dropped back to 15.8. The temporal change in SOC was not able to be represented by the AusFarm model. There are three important conclusions for policy development: 1) monitoring temporal changes in SOC over 12 years did not indicate long-term sequestration, required to assure “permanence” in SOC trading (i.e. 25–100 years) due to the susceptibility of POC to degradation; 2) without monitoring SOC in reference land uses (e.g. CT cropping system as a control in this experiment) it is not possible to determine the net carbon sequestration, and therefore the true climate change mitigation value; and 3) modelling SOC using AusFarm/APSIM, does not fully represent the temporal dynamics of SOC in this low rainfall environment.

Grazing-system experiments address complex interactions among animals, pastures, soils, climate and management. As part of the national EverGraze program, a grazing-system experiment was designed to determine how the intensity of grazing management, from continuous grazing (P01) to flexible 4- and 20-paddock rotational systems (P04 and P20), influences the profitability and sustainability of a Merino ewe, terminal sire, lamb production system grazed on heterogeneous native pastures. When implementing such an experiment, it is important to understand and characterise landscape variability, and include this in the design of the experiment. A second challenge for grazing-system research is to operate experimental systems with sufficient flexibility to adequately represent commercial production systems and maintain even utilisation across treatments. The present paper addresses the following two issues: (1) the process used to characterise the potential productivity of variable native pastures and the results of this characterisation; and (2) the development of flexible systems that adequately represent commercial production within an experiment. This was undertaken with input from a project-steering committee called the EverGraze Regional Group, comprising producers, extension staff and private consultants. Prior to the commencement, the site was mapped into three production zones, namely, high (HPZ), medium (MPZ) and low (LPZ), by visually estimating green herbage mass in late spring and marking boundaries between zones with a GPS. The production zones represented differences in soil properties (gravel, pH and available P) and pasture composition, and were used to balance potential production among plots within the same replication. Grazing-system options were evaluated using the sustainable grazing systems pasture model to help choose an appropriate starting stocking rate. The initial stocking rate chosen for the spring-lambing systems was 5.4 ewes/ha. The modelling predicted large variations in feed availability and quality over summer among years; flexible management criteria were therefore developed, including variable sale time for lambs, to utilise the greater feed supply in better seasons. Minimum-pasture benchmarks (>0.8 t DM/ha standing herbage mass and >80% ground cover) and variable green herbage-mass targets were designed to sustain high levels of livestock production and prevent pasture degradation. Criteria for adjusting ewe numbers were developed, but were constrained to pre-joining (March), scanning (July) and post-weaning (December), being consistent with commercial practices. The experiment incorporated flexible management rules as these were considered integral to the successful management of commercial grazing systems.

The intensity of grazing management required for optimal pasture and animal production from heterogeneous native grasslands has received little research in the high-rainfall zone of south-eastern Australia. The aim of this experiment was to determine how the intensity of grazing management, from continuous grazing (P01) to flexible 4- and 20-paddock rotational systems (P04 and P20), influenced the productivity and sustainability of a Merino ewe, terminal sire lamb production system run on a native grassland dominated by Microlaena stipoides and Rytidosperma spp. The present paper focuses on the animal production and feed-quality results from this experiment. There was a higher per head animal production for the P01 than the P20, with the P04 being intermediate. The differences were found for ewe liveweight and fat score, lamb growth rates and lamb liveweight at weaning. The P20 was able to run higher ewe numbers, in response to greater feed on offer than for P04 and P01, which enabled lamb production per hectare at weaning to be similar and greasy wool production per hectare to be greater than for P01. The organic matter digestibility of the ewe diet estimated from faecal analysis was lower for P20 and P04 systems than for P01 over a 7-month period and explained differences measured in sheep performance at that time. When lambs were retained after weaning, they could be kept for longer on the P20 and grown to a greater weight than for the P01 and P04, but the criteria for setting stocking rates and selling lambs from systems influenced the production from the systems. Further work is needed to investigate the interaction between stocking rate (ewe numbers and lamb sale time) and grazing management and examine different options for managing rotational grazing systems.

It has been proposed that changes to grazing systems, from continuous to rotational grazing, alter the pasture mass and composition, which are reflected in changes to stored soil water. Additionally, in highly variable landscapes, determining whether the variation in soil water is due to the inherent landscape properties rather than the imposed grazing management has long been a contentious argument. To address this question, soil moisture was measured across a highly variable landscape under three differing grazing treatments (1-, 4- and 20-paddock systems). From the soil-water measurements, plant-available water and plant-available water capacity were determined. Different production zones (high, medium and low) were identified in the landscape by visually estimating green herbage mass in late spring. There were no observed differences in the measured plant-available water capacity across the grazing treatments; however, significant differences occurred in plant-available water capacity across the three production zones (high-production zone, 114 mm; medium-production zone, 102 mm; low-production zone, 88 mm) within the study period. There appears to be a trend between the plant-available water capacity and near-surface gravel content as measured in production zones. The high production zones held more plant-available water than did the low production zones, enabling more biomass and longer pasture growth during spring and autumn. The plant-available water in the low production zones significantly decreased with time. In all, 22 of the 50 soil-moisture monitoring locations displayed high temporal stability and were identified as being catchment-average soil water-content monitoring locations. A majority of these locations occurred in the medium production zone, demonstrating that representative soil moisture can be measured in these landscapes.

Native pastures account for approximately half the grazing area of the high-rainfall zone of southern Australia and the appropriate intensity of grazing management to improve pasture production and to sustain native species composition is still debated. This paper describes differences in pasture herbage mass, ground cover and composition for a native pasture managed under three distinct grazing-management intensities (1-, 4- and 20-paddock grazing systems). Grazing-management treatments were implemented for 4 years across a variable landscape and the interaction of grazing management and landscape position (high-, medium- and low-production zones) were examined. Increasing the intensity of grazing management (number of paddocks in the grazing system) resulted in higher standing, green and litter herbage mass and ground cover of pastures, with differences most pronounced in the high-production zone where selective grazing was regulated with grazing management. Landscape position largely influenced pasture composition, with higher pasture production and more productive species (e.g. Microlaena stipoides, Lolium rigidum and legumes) in the high-production zone. Small increases in the DM of native perennial grasses and lower levels of legumes and broad-leaf weeds developed in the 20-paddock system compared with grazing in 1- and 4-paddock systems. Net pasture growth was higher in the 20-paddock than 1-paddock treatment during spring in the last 2 years of the experiment, resulting in 21% (1.6 t DM/ha) more herbage mass accumulated over the year. While productivity and cover were higher under intensive rotational grazing, grazing management had little influence on pasture composition. A stable perennial pasture (>70% perennial grasses) stocking rates that were not degrading and the strong influence of landscape on pasture composition limited management influences. Practically, the results indicated that, at the same stocking rate, increasing the intensity of grazing management can increase the average pasture herbage mass, ground cover and pasture growth by more evenly distributing grazing.

Assessments of grazing systems are often constrained by the decisions regarding the management of the grazing systems, including stocking rate, and also the seasonal conditions that occur during the assessment period. These constraints have led to sometimes conflicting results about comparisons of grazing management systems. This paper examines 1-, 4- and 20-paddock (1P, 4P and 20P) grazing management systems to determine how the intensity of grazing management on native pastures influences the financial performance of sheep production systems. The performance of the grazing systems, as part of the Orange EverGraze research experiment, was initially examined using the biophysical data over the 4 years of the experiment and then a more detailed analysis over a longer timeframe was undertaken using the AusFarm simulation modelling software. Flexible management strategies to optimise ewe numbers, sale time of lambs, and adjust ewe numbers based on season, were also assessed to determine which management systems are the most profitable and sustainable. There was higher profit for the 20P grazing system than the 1P system during the experiment. However, when stocking rates were held constant at optimum levels and systems were simulated over 40 years, there was no difference between grazing systems. Modelling strategies used to vary stocking rates showed that flexible management options are better based on optimising ewe numbers and the sale time of lambs rather than changing ewe numbers between years. The sustainability of modelled systems was also assessed using frequency of events where the average herbage mass (0.8 t DM/ha) or ground cover (80%) in autumn dropped below levels that are associated with degradation. Degradation events occurred more so with increasing ewe number than lamb sale time. Overall, the most sustainable systems, when considering profitability and environmental issues, had a stocking rate of 4.2 ewes per ha, with lambs sold in February (2 or 18). Higher stocking rates (5.3 ewes/ha) would need to be run for more intensive grazing management to have higher profitability.