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Ecosystems in the Anthropocene face pressures from multiple, interacting forms of environmental change. These pressures, resulting from land use change, altered hydrologic regimes, and climate change, will likely change the synchrony of ecosystem processes as distinct components of ecosystems are impacted in different ways. However, discipline-specific definitions and ad hoc methods for identifying synchrony and asynchrony have limited broader synthesis of this concept among studies and across disciplines. Drawing on concepts from ecology, hydrology, geomorphology, and biogeochemistry, we offer a unifying definition of synchrony for ecosystem science and propose a classification framework for synchrony and asynchrony of ecosystem processes. This framework classifies the relationships among ecosystem processes according to five key aspects: (1) the focal variables or relationships representative of the ecosystem processes of interest, (2) the spatial and temporal domain of interest, (3) the structural attributes of drivers and focal processes, (4) consistency in the relationships over time, and (5) the degree of causality among focal processes. Using this classification framework, we identify and differentiate types of synchrony and asynchrony, thereby providing the basis for comparing among studies and across disciplines. We apply this classification framework to existing studies in the ecological, hydrologic, geomorphic, and biogeochemical literature and discuss potential analytical tools that can be used to quantify synchronous and asynchronous processes. Furthermore, we seek to promote understanding of how different types of synchrony or asynchrony may shift in response to ongoing environmental change by providing a universal definition and explicit types and drivers with this framework.

Over half of global rivers and streams lack perennial flow, and understanding the distribution and drivers of their flow regimes is critical for understanding their hydrologic, biogeochemical, and ecological functions. We analyzed nonperennial flow regimes using 540 U.S. Geological Survey watersheds across the contiguous United States from 1979 to 2018. Multivariate analyses revealed regional differences in no-flow fraction, date of first no flow, and duration of the dry-down period, with further divergence between natural and human-altered watersheds. Aridity was a primary driver of no-flow metrics at the continental scale, while unique combinations of climatic, physiographic and anthropogenic drivers emerged at regional scales. Dry-down duration showed stronger associations with nonclimate drivers compared to no-flow fraction and timing. Although the sparse distribution of nonperennial gages limits our understanding of such streams, the watersheds examined here suggest the important role of aridity and land cover change in modulating future stream drying. Plain Language Summary A majority of global streams are nonperennial, flowing only part of the year, and are critical for sustaining flow downstream, providing habitat for many organisms, and regulating chemical and biological processes. Using long-term U.S. Geological Survey measurements for 540 watersheds across the contiguous United States, we mapped patterns and examined the causes of no-flow fraction, the fraction of each climate year with no flow, no-flow timing, the date of the climate year on which the first recorded no flow takes place, and length of the dry-down period, the average number of days from a local peak in daily flow to the first occurrence of no flow. We found differences in patterns of no-flow characteristics between regions, with higher no-flow fraction, earlier timing, and shorter dry-down duration in the western United States. No-flow fractions were greater and less variable in natural watersheds, while no-flow timing was earlier and dry-down duration was shorter in human-modified watersheds. Aridity had the greatest effect on intermittence across the United States, but unique combinations of climate, biophysical, and human impacts were important in different regions. The number of gages measuring streamflow in nonperennial streams is small compared to perennial streams, and increased monitoring is needed to better understand drying behavior. Key Points . Three metrics reveal regional and human-driven patterns of nonperennial flow: no-flow fraction, day of first no flow, and dry-down duration Streams with human modifications generally dry more quickly than unmodified streams, especially in California and the Southern Great Plains Climate strongly influences no-flow fraction and timing, but physiographic variables are more important for the duration of dry down National Science FoundationNational Science Foundation (NSF) [DEB-1754389]; Kansas Water Resources Institute Published version This manuscript is a product of the Dry Rivers Research Coordination Network, supported by funding from the National Science Foundation (DEB-1754389). Although this work was approved for publication by the EPA, it may not reflect official Agency policy. S.C.Z. was supported by the Kansas Water Resources Institute. We thank David Wolock and two anonymous reviewers for their suggestions and edits. Public domain – authored by a U.S. government employee

Janus is an open source Python package for agent-based modeling (ABM) of land use and land cover change (LULCC). Many ABMs of LULCC have been created across platforms, some of which are not ideal for large scale, high resolution scenarios. This model provides a simple object-oriented framework for creating ABMs specific to LULCC. The organizational philosophy of the modeling framework is to create software objects (agents) that are associated with specific and contextual attributes which are isolated from where those agents exist in the spatial setting of the model, and still provide clear linkages between the agent, their environment, and other agents in the simulation. In this way, the framework allows for assembly of LULCC ABMs with low (programmatic) overhead, making the models extensible and providing clear mechanisms for integrating them with process-oriented biophysical models. Provided with Janus is a suite of geospatial data preprocessing tools that can use arbitrary land cover products as an input. Crop choice decisions are based on potential crop prices, these can be created synthetically, or drawn from integrated human-Earth systems models such as the Global Change Assessment Model. Janus is publicly accessible through GitHub and provides an example dataset for testing.

Streamflow observations can be used to understand, predict, and contextualize hydrologic, ecological, and biogeochemical processes and conditions in streams. Stream gages are point measurements along rivers where streamflow is measured, and are often used to infer upstream watershed-scale processes. When stream gages read zero, this may indicate that the stream has dried at this location; however, zero-flow readings can also be caused by a wide range of other factors. Our ability to identify whether or not a zero-flow gage reading indicates a dry fluvial system has far reaching environmental implications. Incorrect identification and interpretation by the data user can lead to inaccurate hydrologic, ecological, and/or biogeochemical predictions from models and analyses. Here, we describe several causes of zero-flow gage readings: frozen surface water, flow reversals, instrument error, and natural or human-driven upstream source losses or bypass flow. For these examples, we discuss the implications of zero-flow interpretations. We also highlight additional methods for determining flow presence, including direct observations, statistical methods, and hydrologic models, which can be applied to interpret causes of zero-flow gage readings and implications for reach- and watershed-scale dynamics. Such efforts are necessary to improve our ability to understand and predict surface flow activation, cessation, and connectivity across river networks. Developing this integrated understanding of the wide range of possible meanings of zero-flows will only attain greater importance in a more variable and changing hydrologic climate. This article is categorized under: Science of Water > Methods Science of Water > Hydrological Processes Water and Life > Conservation, Management, and Awareness National Science FoundationNational Science Foundation (NSF) [DEB-1754389]; NSFNational Science Foundation (NSF) [DEB-1830178, EAR-1653998, EAR-1652293]; NSF Konza Long Term Ecological Research grant [1440484]; Department of Energy Office of Science Multisector Dynamics ProgramUnited States Department of Energy (DOE); Australian Research CouncilAustralian Research Council [DE150100302]; Department of EnergyUnited States Department of Energy (DOE) [DE-SC0019377] This manuscript is a product of the Dry Rivers Research Coordination Network, which was supported by funding from the National Science Foundation (DEB-1754389). DelVecchia was supported in part by funding from NSF DEB-1830178. Dodds was supported in part by NSF Konza Long Term Ecological Research grant number 1440484. Godsey was supported in part by NSF award EAR-1653998. Kaiser was supported in part by the Department of Energy Office of Science Multisector Dynamics Program. Shanafield was supported in part by funding from the Australian Research Council under grant DE150100302. Ward was supported in part by Department of Energy award DE-SC0019377 and NSF award EAR-1652293. The opinions expressed are those of the researchers, and not necessarily the funding agencies. Although this work was reviewed by the USGS and USEPA, and approved for publication, it might not necessarily reflect official USEPA policy. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. The authors thank Heather Golden, Brent Johnson, Rosemary Fanelli, Albert Ruhi, as well as two anonymous reviewers for helpful comments on earlier versions of the manuscript. USGS data used to support this study are available from the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Information System database (U.S. Geological Survey, 2019). For the exact dataset used in this study, see: Hammond (2020). Public domain – authored by a U.S. government employee

Nonperennial rivers are a major—and growing—part of the global river network. New research and science-based policies are needed to ensure the sustainability of these long-overlooked waterways.

Non-perennial streams are widespread, critical to ecosystems and society, and the subject of ongoing policy debate. Prior large-scale research on stream intermittency has been based on long-term averages, generally using annually aggregated data to characterize a highly variable process. As a result, it is not well understood if, how, or why the hydrology of non-perennial streams is changing. Here, we investigate trends and drivers of three intermittency signatures that describe the duration, timing, and dry-down period of stream intermittency across the continental United States (CONUS). Half of gages exhibited a significant trend through time in at least one of the three intermittency signatures, and changes in no-flow duration were most pervasive (41% of gages). Changes in intermittency were substantial for many streams, and 7% of gages exhibited changes in annual no-flow duration exceeding 100 days during the study period. Distinct regional patterns of change were evident, with widespread drying in southern CONUS and wetting in northern CONUS. These patterns are correlated with changes in aridity, though drivers of spatiotemporal variability were diverse across the three intermittency signatures. While the no-flow timing and duration were strongly related to climate, dry-down period was most strongly related to watershed land use and physiography. Our results indicate that non-perennial conditions are increasing in prevalence over much of CONUS and binary classifications of 'perennial' and 'non-perennial' are not an accurate reflection of this change. Water management and policy should reflect the changing nature and diverse drivers of changing intermittency both today and in the future. US National Science FoundationNational Science Foundation (NSF) [DEB-1754389] Published version This manuscript is a product of the Dry Rivers Research Coordination Network, which was supported by funding from the US National Science Foundation (DEB-1754389). Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the US Government. This manuscript was improved by constructive feedback from Kristin Jaeger and three anonymous reviews.

Observations of the presence or absence of surface water in streams are useful for characterizing streamflow permanence, which includes the frequency, duration, and spatial extent of surface flow in streams and rivers. Such data are particularly valuable for headwater streams, which comprise the vast majority of channel length in stream networks, are often non-perennial, and are frequently the most data deficient. Datasets of surface water presence exist across multiple data collection groups in the United States but are not well aligned for easy integration. Given the value of these data, a unified approach for organizing information on surface water presence and absence collected by diverse surveys would facilitate more effective and broad application of these data and address the gap in streamflow data in headwaters. In this paper, we highlight the numerous existing datasets on surface water presence in headwater streams, including recently developed crowdsourcing approaches. We identify the challenges of integrating multiple surface water presence/absence datasets that include differences in the definitions and categories of streamflow status, data collection method, spatial and temporal resolution, and accuracy of geographic location. Finally, we provide a list of critical and useful components that could be used to integrate different streamflow permanence datasets.

The phrase “hot spots and hot moments” first entered the lexicon in 2003, following the publication of the paper “Biogeochemical hot spots and hot moments at the interface of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems” by McClain and others (Ecosystems 6:301–312, 2003). This paper described the potential for rare places and rare events to exert a disproportionate influence on the movement of elements at the scale of landscapes and ecosystems. Here, we examine how the cleverly named hot spot and hot moment concept (hereafter HSHM) has influenced biogeochemistry and ecosystem science over the last 13 years. We specifically examined the extent to which the HSHM concept has: (1) motivated research aimed at understanding how and why biogeochemical behavior varies across spatiotemporal scales; (2) improved our ability to detect HSHM phenomena; and (3) influenced our approaches to restoration and ecosystem management practices. We found that the HSHM concept has provided a highly fertile framework for a substantial volume of research on the spatial and temporal dynamics of nutrient cycling, and in doing so, has improved our understanding of when and where biogeochemical rates are maximized. Despite the high usage of the term, we found limited examples of rigorous statistical or modeling approaches that would allow ecosystem scientists to not only identify, but scale the aggregate impact of HSHM on ecosystem processes. We propose that the phrase “hot spots and hot moments” includes two implicit assumptions that may actually be limiting progress in applying the concept. First, by differentiating “hot spots” from “hot moments,” the phrase separates the spatial and temporal components of biogeochemical behavior. Instead, we argue that the temporal dynamics of a putative hot spot are a fundamental trait that should be used in their description. Second, the adjective “hot” implicitly suggests that a place or a time must be dichotomously classified as “hot or not.” We suggest instead that each landscape of interest contains a wide range of biogeochemical process rates that respond to critical drivers, and the gradations of this biogeochemical topography are of greater interest than the maximum peaks. For these reasons, we recommend replacing the HSHM terminology with the more nuanced term ecosystem control points. “Ecosystem control” suggests that the rate must be of sufficient magnitude or ubiquity to affect dynamics of the ecosystem, while “points” allows for descriptions that simultaneously incorporate both spatial and temporal dynamics. We further suggest that there are at least four distinct types of ecosystem control points whose influence arises through distinct hydrologic and biogeochemical mechanisms. Our goal is to provide the tools with which researchers can develop testable hypotheses regarding the spatiotemporal dynamics of biogeochemistry that will stimulate advances in more accurately identifying, modeling and scaling biogeochemical heterogeneity to better understand ecosystem processes.

Relationships between methane (CH4) fluxes and environmental conditions have been extensively explored in saturated soils, while research has been less prevalent in aerated soils because of the relatively small magnitudes of CH4 fluxes that occur in dry soils. Our study builds on previous carbon cycle research at Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest, Montana, to identify how environmental conditions reflected by topographic metrics can be leveraged to estimate watershed scale CH4 fluxes from point scale measurements. Here, we measured soil CH4 concentrations and fluxes across a range of landscape positions (7 riparian, 25 upland), utilizing topographic and seasonal (29 May–12 September) gradients to examine the relationships between environmental variables, hydrologic dynamics, and CH4 emission and uptake. Riparian areas emitted small fluxes of CH4 throughout the study (median: 0.186 µg CH4–C m−2 h−1) and uplands increased in sink strength with dry-down of the watershed (median: −22.9 µg CH4–C m−2 h−1). Locations with volumetric water content (VWC) below 38 % were methane sinks, and uptake increased with decreasing VWC. Above 43 % VWC, net CH4 efflux occurred, and at intermediate VWC net fluxes were near zero. Riparian sites had near-neutral cumulative seasonal flux, and cumulative uptake of CH4 in the uplands was significantly related to topographic indices. These relationships were used to model the net seasonal CH4 flux of the upper Stringer Creek watershed (−1.75 kg CH4–C ha−1). This spatially distributed estimate was 111 % larger than that obtained by simply extrapolating the mean CH4 flux to the entire watershed area. Our results highlight the importance of quantifying the space–time variability of net CH4 fluxes as predicted by the frequency distribution of landscape positions when assessing watershed scale greenhouse gas balances.

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed the PRObability of Streamflow PERmanence (PROSPER) model, a GIS raster-based empirical model that provides streamflow permanence probabilities (probabilistic predictions) of a stream channel having year-round flow for any unregulated and minimally-impaired stream channel in the Pacific Northwest region, U.S. The model provides annual predictions for 2004–2016 at a 30-m spatial resolution based on monthly or annually updated values of climatic conditions and static physiographic variables associated with the upstream basin. Predictions correspond to any pixel on the channel network consistent with the medium resolution National Hydrography Dataset channel network stream grid. Total annual precipitation and percent forest cover were consistently the most important predictor variables among global and most subregional models, which had error rates between 17 and 22%. Probabilities were converted to wet and dry streamflow permanence classes with an associated confidence. Wet and dry classifications were used to derive descriptors that characterize the statistical and spatial distribution of streamflow permanence in three focal basins. Predicted dry channel segments account for 52–92% of the stream network across the three focal basins; streamflow permanence decreased during climatically drier years. Predictions are publicly available through the USGS StreamStats platform. Results demonstrate the utility of the PROSPER model as a tool for identifying areas that may be resilient or sensitive to drought conditions, allowing for management efforts that target protecting critical reaches. Importantly, PROSPER’s successful predictive performance can be improved with new datasets of streamflow permanence underscoring the importance of field observations. Keywords: Flow permanence, Intermittent, Ephemeral, Perennial, Non-perennial, Streams

Modeling coupled social and biophysical dynamics of water resources systems is increasingly important due to population growth and changes in the water cycle driven by climate change. Models that explicitly represent these coupled dynamics are challenging to design and implement, particularly given the complicated and cross-scale nature of water governance. Agent-based models (ABMs) can capture human decision-making and nested social hierarchies, however, transferability is made difficult by location-specific details. A consistent description of water resources decision-makers (individuals, groups, agencies) would advance the rate of model development and increase synthesis across systems. Reviewing water resources ABMs, we propose eight agent types and associated operational roles that modify the storage, redistribution, and water use in a system. Application of the proposed typologies and use of best practices in model documentation, will support systematic design and development of transferable, scalable, water resources ABMs and facilitate the dynamic coupling of social and biophysical process modeling.

Vegetation pattern and landscape structure intersect to exert strong control over ecohydrological dynamics at the watershed scale. The hydrologic implications of vegetation disturbance (e.g. fire, disease) depend on the spatial pattern and form of environmental change. Here, we investigate this intersection at Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest (TCEF), Montana, with a focus on the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) epidemic currently affecting the Rocky Mountains. We calibrated QuickBird remote sensing imagery with a leaf-level spectral library of local vegetation. We used this spectral library to determine diagnostic vegetation indices for differentiating stages of beetle infestation within the 37 km2 TCEF watershed. These indices formed the basis of a three-component mixing model to establish the extent and magnitude of beetle infestation across the TCEF watershed. We compared disturbance patterns with spatially distributed topography and vegetation variables derived from a light detection and ranging-based digital elevation model of TCEF. We determined that certain landscape characteristics (low vegetation density, south-facing slopes, steep slopes, locations with small contributing areas and locations with lower values of the topographic wetness index) were significantly more likely to exhibit the effects of beetle infestation. Our efforts to monitor vegetation mortality across space and time provide a context for assessing landscape susceptibility to initial mountain pine beetle infestation and how outbreak (i.e. landscape scale infestation) patterns may affect watershed ecohydrology via altered water and biogeochemical cycles. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of laparoscopic implantation of peritoneal dialysis (PD) catheters as compared with insertion by open dissection. The cost analysis was based on clinical experience with 232 consecutive implants and 23 procedures to rescue catheters from flow dysfunction. Institutional expenses were calculated from the costs of labor and of disposable and reusable materials. Payer costs were taken from Medicare reimbursement schedules for outpatient, inpatient, professional, and ancillary services. A break-even percentage was calculated, representing the point at which the laparoscopic procedure became cost-effective because of a lower incidence of costly catheter rescue procedures. An observed difference in the incidence of catheter obstruction between laparoscopic and open procedures exceeding this percentage would indicate that the laparoscopic approach was cost effective. The calculated break-even value varied between 1.5% and 26% depending on whether the procedures were performed exclusively on an inpatient or outpatient basis. Given our inpatient/outpatient case mix, a weighted calculation of the break-even value was 9.4%. The observed difference in incidence between the two implant methods was 10.8% overall and 16.4% for the last 91 consecutive laparoscopic procedures. The analysis demonstrates that our laparoscopic implantation procedure is a cost-effective means of establishing PD access as compared with the open dissection technique.

An in vitro rat muscle preparation is described that can contract at rates of 12–240 twitches/min. Maximum dF/dt paralleled maximum twitch tension, their ratio being constant at approximately 8 ms for contraction rates of 12-120 twitches/min. Time to peak tension was 8–13 ms, time to peak dF/dt 5–8 ms, and half-relaxation time 4 ms. These parameters were unaffected by rate of contraction or duration of isometric work. Differential ATPase staining demonstrated that 60–65% of the fibers were fast-twitch white, 20% fast-twitch red, and 15% slow-twitch red. The preponderance of fast-twitch fibers correlated with the observed mechanical performance of the muscle. Muscles contracting for 60 min at rates up to 48 twitches/min maintained total adenine nucleotide content (ATP, ADP, AMP) at near resting levels. At higher twitch rates (72–240 twitches/min), total adenine nucleotide content decreased 40%, reflecting exclusively a fall in ATP in the presence of adequate phosphocreatine stores. Adequate oxygenation was reflected by lactate-to-pyruvate ratios in the range of 11–15 at all rates of contraction.