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Abstract Background Probabilistic assessments of clinical care are essential for quality care. Yet, machine learning, which supports this care process has been limited to categorical results. To maximize its usefulness, it is important to find novel approaches that calibrate the ML output with a likelihood scale. Current state-of-the-art calibration methods are generally accurate and applicable to many ML models, but improved granularity and accuracy of such methods would increase the information available for clinical decision making. This novel non-parametric Bayesian approach is demonstrated on a variety of data sets, including simulated classifier outputs, biomedical data sets from the University of California, Irvine (UCI) Machine Learning Repository, and a clinical data set built to determine suicide risk from the language of emergency department patients. Results The method is first demonstrated on support-vector machine (SVM) models, which generally produce well-behaved, well understood scores. The method produces calibrations that are comparable to the state-of-the-art Bayesian Binning in Quantiles (BBQ) method when the SVM models are able to effectively separate cases and controls. However, as the SVM models’ ability to discriminate classes decreases, our approach yields more granular and dynamic calibrated probabilities comparing to the BBQ method. Improvements in granularity and range are even more dramatic when the discrimination between the classes is artificially degraded by replacing the SVM model with an ad hoc k-means classifier. Conclusions The method allows both clinicians and patients to have a more nuanced view of the output of an ML model, allowing better decision making. The method is demonstrated on simulated data, various biomedical data sets and a clinical data set, to which diverse ML methods are applied. Trivially extending the method to (non-ML) clinical scores is also discussed.

Abstract Background Coreference resolution is the task of finding strings in text that have the same referent as other strings. Failures of coreference resolution are a common cause of false negatives in information extraction from the scientific literature. In order to better understand the nature of the phenomenon of coreference in biomedical publications and to increase performance on the task, we annotated the Colorado Richly Annotated Full Text (CRAFT) corpus with coreference relations. Results The corpus was manually annotated with coreference relations, including identity and appositives for all coreferring base noun phrases. The OntoNotes annotation guidelines, with minor adaptations, were used. Interannotator agreement ranges from 0.480 (entity-based CEAF) to 0.858 (Class-B3), depending on the metric that is used to assess it. The resulting corpus adds nearly 30,000 annotations to the previous release of the CRAFT corpus. Differences from related projects include a much broader definition of markables, connection to extensive annotation of several domain-relevant semantic classes, and connection to complete syntactic annotation. Tool performance was benchmarked on the data. A publicly available out-of-the-box, general-domain coreference resolution system achieved an F-measure of 0.14 (B3), while a simple domain-adapted rule-based system achieved an F-measure of 0.42. An ensemble of the two reached F of 0.46. Following the IDENTITY chains in the data would add 106,263 additional named entities in the full 97-paper corpus, for an increase of 76% percent in the semantic classes of the eight ontologies that have been annotated in earlier versions of the CRAFT corpus. Conclusions The project produced a large data set for further investigation of coreference and coreference resolution in the scientific literature. The work raised issues in the phenomenon of reference in this domain and genre, and the paper proposes that many mentions that would be considered generic in the general domain are not generic in the biomedical domain due to their referents to specific classes in domain-specific ontologies. The comparison of the performance of a publicly available and well-understood coreference resolution system with a domain-adapted system produced results that are consistent with the notion that the requirements for successful coreference resolution in this genre are quite different from those of the general domain, and also suggest that the baseline performance difference is quite large.