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Despite the advances in probabilistic model checking, the scalability of the verification methods remains limited. In particular, the state space often becomes extremely large when instantiating parameterized Markov decision processes (MDPs) even with moderate values. Synthesizing policies for such \emph{huge} MDPs is beyond the reach of available tools. We propose a learning-based approach to obtain a reasonable policy for such huge MDPs. The idea is to generalize optimal policies obtained by model-checking small instances to larger ones using decision-tree learning. Consequently, our method bypasses the need for explicit state-space exploration of large models, providing a practical solution to the state-space explosion problem. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach by performing extensive experimentation on the relevant models from the quantitative verification benchmark set. The experimental results indicate that our policies perform well, even when the size of the model is orders of magnitude beyond the reach of state-of-the-art analysis tools., Comment: Preprint. Under review

Since neural networks can make wrong predictions even with high confidence, monitoring their behavior at runtime is important, especially in safety-critical domains like autonomous driving. In this paper, we combine ideas from previous monitoring approaches based on observing the activation values of hidden neurons. In particular, we combine the Gaussian-based approach, which observes whether the current value of each monitored neuron is similar to typical values observed during training, and the Outside-the-Box monitor, which creates clusters of the acceptable activation values, and, thus, considers the correlations of the neurons' values. Our experiments evaluate the achieved improvement.

Ranking risks and countermeasures is one of the foremost goals of quantitative security analysis. One of the popular frameworks, used also in industrial practice, for this task are attack-defense trees. Standard quantitative analyses available for attack-defense trees can distinguish likely from unlikely vulnerabilities. We provide a tool that allows for easy synthesis and analysis of those models, also featuring probabilities, costs and time. Furthermore, it provides a variety of interfaces to existing model checkers and analysis tools. Unfortunately, currently available tools rely on precise quantitative inputs (probabilities, timing, or costs of attacks), which are rarely available. Instead, only statistical, imprecise information is typically available, leaving us with probably approximately correct (PAC) estimates of the real quantities. As a part of our tool, we extend the standard analysis techniques so they can handle the PAC input and yield rigorous bounds on the imprecision and uncertainty of the final result of the analysis., Comment: Accepted for QEST/FORMATS 2024

Integrating symbolic knowledge and data-driven learning algorithms is a longstanding challenge in Artificial Intelligence. Despite the recognized importance of this task, a notable gap exists due to the discreteness of symbolic representations and the continuous nature of machine-learning computations. One of the desired bridges between these two worlds would be to define semantically grounded vector representation (feature embedding) of logic formulae, thus enabling to perform continuous learning and optimization in the semantic space of formulae. We tackle this goal for knowledge expressed in Signal Temporal Logic (STL) and devise a method to compute continuous embeddings of formulae with several desirable properties: the embedding (i) is finite-dimensional, (ii) faithfully reflects the semantics of the formulae, (iii) does not require any learning but instead is defined from basic principles, (iv) is interpretable. Another significant contribution lies in demonstrating the efficacy of the approach in two tasks: learning model checking, where we predict the probability of requirements being satisfied in stochastic processes; and integrating the embeddings into a neuro-symbolic framework, to constrain the output of a deep-learning generative model to comply to a given logical specification.

The analysis of formal models that include quantitative aspects such as timing or probabilistic choices is performed by quantitative verification tools. Broad and mature tool support is available for computing basic properties such as expected rewards on basic models such as Markov chains. Previous editions of QComp, the comparison of tools for the analysis of quantitative formal models, focused on this setting. Many application scenarios, however, require more advanced property types such as LTL and parameter synthesis queries as well as advanced models like stochastic games and partially observable MDPs. For these, tool support is in its infancy today. This paper presents the outcomes of QComp 2023: a survey of the state of the art in quantitative verification tool support for advanced property types and models. With tools ranging from first research prototypes to well-supported integrations into established toolsets, this report highlights today's active areas and tomorrow's challenges in tool-focused research for quantitative verification.

The behavior of neural networks (NNs) on previously unseen types of data (out-of-distribution or OOD) is typically unpredictable. This can be dangerous if the network's output is used for decision-making in a safety-critical system. Hence, detecting that an input is OOD is crucial for the safe application of the NN. Verification approaches do not scale to practical NNs, making runtime monitoring more appealing for practical use. While various monitors have been suggested recently, their optimization for a given problem, as well as comparison with each other and reproduction of results, remain challenging. We present a tool for users and developers of NN monitors. It allows for (i) application of various types of monitors from the literature to a given input NN, (ii) optimization of the monitor's hyperparameters, and (iii) experimental evaluation and comparison to other approaches. Besides, it facilitates the development of new monitoring approaches. We demonstrate the tool's usability on several use cases of different types of users as well as on a case study comparing different approaches from recent literature., Comment: accepted at CAV 2024

We present a general framework for applying learning algorithms and heuristical guidance to the verification of Markov decision processes (MDPs). The primary goal of our techniques is to improve performance by avoiding an exhaustive exploration of the state space, instead focussing on particularly relevant areas of the system, guided by heuristics. Our work builds on the previous results of Br{\'{a}}zdil et al., significantly extending it as well as refining several details and fixing errors. The presented framework focuses on probabilistic reachability, which is a core problem in verification, and is instantiated in two distinct scenarios. The first assumes that full knowledge of the MDP is available, in particular precise transition probabilities. It performs a heuristic-driven partial exploration of the model, yielding precise lower and upper bounds on the required probability. The second tackles the case where we may only sample the MDP without knowing the exact transition dynamics. Here, we obtain probabilistic guarantees, again in terms of both the lower and upper bounds, which provides efficient stopping criteria for the approximation. In particular, the latter is an extension of statistical model-checking (SMC) for unbounded properties in MDPs. In contrast to other related approaches, we do not restrict our attention to time-bounded (finite-horizon) or discounted properties, nor assume any particular structural properties of the MDP.

Strategies for partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDP) typically require memory. One way to represent this memory is via automata. We present a method to learn an automaton representation of a strategy using a modification of the L*-algorithm. Compared to the tabular representation of a strategy, the resulting automaton is dramatically smaller and thus also more explainable. Moreover, in the learning process, our heuristics may even improve the strategy's performance. In contrast to approaches that synthesize an automaton directly from the POMDP thereby solving it, our approach is incomparably more scalable., Comment: Technical report for the submission to TACAS 24

Abstraction is a key verification technique to improve scalability. However, its use for neural networks is so far extremely limited. Previous approaches for abstracting classification networks replace several neurons with one of them that is similar enough. We can classify the similarity as defined either syntactically (using quantities on the connections between neurons) or semantically (on the activation values of neurons for various inputs). Unfortunately, the previous approaches only achieve moderate reductions, when implemented at all. In this work, we provide a more flexible framework where a neuron can be replaced with a linear combination of other neurons, improving the reduction. We apply this approach both on syntactic and semantic abstractions, and implement and evaluate them experimentally. Further, we introduce a refinement method for our abstractions, allowing for finding a better balance between reduction and precision., Comment: Accepted at ATVA 2023

We present MULTIGAIN 2.0, a major extension to the controller synthesis tool MULTIGAIN, built on top of the probabilistic model checker PRISM. This new version extends MULTIGAIN's multi-objective capabilities, by allowing for the formal verification and synthesis of controllers for probabilistic systems with multi-dimensional long-run average reward structures, steady-state constraints, and linear temporal logic properties. Additionally, MULTIGAIN 2.0 can modify the underlying linear program to prevent unbounded-memory and other unintuitive solutions and visualizes Pareto curves, in the two- and three-dimensional cases, to facilitate trade-off analysis in multi-objective scenarios.

We provide a learning-based technique for guessing a winning strategy in a parity game originating from an LTL synthesis problem. A cheaply obtained guess can be useful in several applications. Not only can the guessed strategy be applied as best-effort in cases where the game's huge size prohibits rigorous approaches, but it can also increase the scalability of rigorous LTL synthesis in several ways. Firstly, checking whether a guessed strategy is winning is easier than constructing one. Secondly, even if the guess is wrong in some places, it can be fixed by strategy iteration faster than constructing one from scratch. Thirdly, the guess can be used in on-the-fly approaches to prioritize exploration in the most fruitful directions. In contrast to previous works, we (i)~reflect the highly structured logical information in game's states, the so-called semantic labelling, coming from the recent LTL-to-automata translations, and (ii)~learn to reflect it properly by learning from previously solved games, bringing the solving process closer to human-like reasoning.

A classic solution technique for Markov decision processes (MDP) and stochastic games (SG) is value iteration (VI). Due to its good practical performance, this approximative approach is typically preferred over exact techniques, even though no practical bounds on the imprecision of the result could be given until recently. As a consequence, even the most used model checkers could return arbitrarily wrong results. Over the past decade, different works derived stopping criteria, indicating when the precision reaches the desired level, for various settings, in particular MDP with reachability, total reward, and mean payoff, and SG with reachability. In this paper, we provide the first stopping criteria for VI on SG with total reward and mean payoff, yielding the first anytime algorithms in these settings. To this end, we provide the solution in two flavours: First through a reduction to the MDP case and second directly on SG. The former is simpler and automatically utilizes any advances on MDP. The latter allows for more local computations, heading towards better practical efficiency. Our solution unifies the previously mentioned approaches for MDP and SG and their underlying ideas. To achieve this, we isolate objective-specific subroutines as well as identify objective-independent concepts. These structural concepts, while surprisingly simple, form the very essence of the unified solution.

Runtime monitoring provides a more realistic and applicable alternative to verification in the setting of real neural networks used in industry. It is particularly useful for detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs, for which the network was not trained and can yield erroneous results. We extend a runtime-monitoring approach previously proposed for classification networks to perception systems capable of identification and localization of multiple objects. Furthermore, we analyze its adequacy experimentally on different kinds of OOD settings, documenting the overall efficacy of our approach., Comment: 14 Pages, 1 Table, 5 Figures. Accepted at the International Symposium of Formal Methods 2023 (FM 2023)

Recently, decision trees (DT) have been used as an explainable representation of controllers (a.k.a. strategies, policies, schedulers). Although they are often very efficient and produce small and understandable controllers for discrete systems, complex continuous dynamics still pose a challenge. In particular, when the relationships between variables take more complex forms, such as polynomials, they cannot be obtained using the available DT learning procedures. In contrast, support vector machines provide a more powerful representation, capable of discovering many such relationships, but not in an explainable form. Therefore, we suggest to combine the two frameworks in order to obtain an understandable representation over richer, domain-relevant algebraic predicates. We demonstrate and evaluate the proposed method experimentally on established benchmarks.

While value iteration (VI) is a standard solution approach to simple stochastic games (SSGs), it suffered from the lack of a stopping criterion. Recently, several solutions have appeared, among them also "optimistic" VI (OVI). However, OVI is applicable only to one-player SSGs with no end components. We lift these two assumptions, making it available to general SSGs. Further, we utilize the idea in the context of topological VI, where we provide an efficient precise solution. In order to compare the new algorithms with the state of the art, we use not only the standard benchmarks, but we also design a random generator of SSGs, which can be biased towards various types of models, aiding in understanding the advantages of different algorithms on SSGs.

We consider the problem of computing minimum and maximum probabilities of satisfying an $\omega$-regular property in a bounded-parameter Markov decision process (BMDP). BMDP arise from Markov decision processes (MDP) by allowing for uncertainty on the transition probabilities in the form of intervals where the actual probabilities are unknown. $\omega$-regular languages form a large class of properties, expressible as, e.g., Rabin or parity automata, encompassing rich specifications such as linear temporal logic. In a BMDP the probability to satisfy the property depends on the unknown transitions probabilities as well as on the policy. In this paper, we compute the extreme values. This solves the problem specifically suggested by Dutreix and Coogan in CDC 2018, extending their results on interval Markov chains with no adversary. The main idea is to reinterpret their work as analysis of interval MDP and accordingly the BMDP problem as analysis of an $\omega$-regular stochastic game, where a solution is provided. This method extends smoothly further to bounded-parameter stochastic games.

Simulating chemical reaction networks is often computationally demanding, in particular due to stiffness. We propose a novel simulation scheme where long runs are not simulated as a whole but assembled from shorter precomputed segments of simulation runs. On the one hand, this speeds up the simulation process to obtain multiple runs since we can reuse the segments. On the other hand, questions on diversity and genuineness of our runs arise. However, we ensure that we generate runs close to their true distribution by generating an appropriate abstraction of the original system and utilizing it in the simulation process. Interestingly, as a by-product, we also obtain a yet more efficient simulation scheme, yielding runs over the system's abstraction. These provide a very faithful approximation of concrete runs on the desired level of granularity, at a low cost. Our experiments demonstrate the speedups in the simulations while preserving key dynamical as well as quantitative properties., Comment: Accepted to Computational Methods in Systems Biology 2022

Markov decision processes (MDP) and continuous-time MDP (CTMDP) are the fundamental models for non-deterministic systems with probabilistic uncertainty. Mean payoff (a.k.a. long-run average reward) is one of the most classic objectives considered in their context. We provide the first algorithm to compute mean payoff probably approximately correctly in unknown MDP; further, we extend it to unknown CTMDP. We do not require any knowledge of the state space, only a lower bound on the minimum transition probability, which has been advocated in literature. In addition to providing probably approximately correct (PAC) bounds for our algorithm, we also demonstrate its practical nature by running experiments on standard benchmarks., Comment: Full version of CAV 2022 paper, 57 pages

We introduce a similarity function on formulae of signal temporal logic (STL). It comes in the form of a kernel function, well known in machine learning as a conceptually and computationally efficient tool. The corresponding kernel trick allows us to circumvent the complicated process of feature extraction, i.e. the (typically manual) effort to identify the decisive properties of formulae so that learning can be applied. We demonstrate this consequence and its advantages on the task of predicting (quantitative) satisfaction of STL formulae on stochastic processes: Using our kernel and the kernel trick, we learn (i) computationally efficiently (ii) a practically precise predictor of satisfaction, (iii) avoiding the difficult task of finding a way to explicitly turn formulae into vectors of numbers in a sensible way. We back the high precision we have achieved in the experiments by a theoretically sound PAC guarantee, ensuring our procedure efficiently delivers a close-to-optimal predictor.

Decision-making policies for agents are often synthesized with the constraint that a formal specification of behaviour is satisfied. Here we focus on infinite-horizon properties. On the one hand, Linear Temporal Logic (LTL) is a popular example of a formalism for qualitative specifications. On the other hand, Steady-State Policy Synthesis (SSPS) has recently received considerable attention as it provides a more quantitative and more behavioural perspective on specifications, in terms of the frequency with which states are visited. Finally, rewards provide a classic framework for quantitative properties. In this paper, we study Markov decision processes (MDP) with the specification combining all these three types. The derived policy maximizes the reward among all policies ensuring the LTL specification with the given probability and adhering to the steady-state constraints. To this end, we provide a unified solution reducing the multi-type specification to a multi-dimensional long-run average reward. This is enabled by Limit-Deterministic B\"uchi Automata (LDBA), recently studied in the context of LTL model checking on MDP, and allows for an elegant solution through a simple linear programme. The algorithm also extends to the general $\omega$-regular properties and runs in time polynomial in the sizes of the MDP as well as the LDBA.

Recent advances have shown how decision trees are apt data structures for concisely representing strategies (or controllers) satisfying various objectives. Moreover, they also make the strategy more explainable. The recent tool dtControl had provided pipelines with tools supporting strategy synthesis for hybrid systems, such as SCOTS and Uppaal Stratego. We present dtControl 2.0, a new version with several fundamentally novel features. Most importantly, the user can now provide domain knowledge to be exploited in the decision tree learning process and can also interactively steer the process based on the dynamically provided information. To this end, we also provide a graphical user interface. It allows for inspection and re-computation of parts of the result, suggesting as well as receiving advice on predicates, and visual simulation of the decision-making process. Besides, we interface model checkers of probabilistic systems, namely Storm and PRISM and provide dedicated support for categorical enumeration-type state variables. Consequently, the controllers are more explainable and smaller.

We study runtime monitoring of $\omega$-regular properties. We consider a simple setting in which a run of an unknown finite-state Markov chain $\mathcal M$ is monitored against a fixed but arbitrary $\omega$-regular specification $\varphi$. The purpose of monitoring is to keep aborting runs that are "unlikely" to satisfy the specification until $\mathcal M$ executes a correct run. We design controllers for the reset action that (assuming that $\varphi$ has positive probability) satisfy the following property w.p.1: the number of resets is finite, and the run executed by $\mathcal M$ after the last reset satisfies $\varphi$.

Simple stochastic games are turn-based 2.5-player zero-sum graph games with a reachability objective. The problem is to compute the winning probability as well as the optimal strategies of both players. In this paper, we compare the three known classes of algorithms -- value iteration, strategy iteration and quadratic programming -- both theoretically and practically. Further, we suggest several improvements for all algorithms, including the first approach based on quadratic programming that avoids transforming the stochastic game to a stopping one. Our extensive experiments show that these improvements can lead to significant speed-ups. We implemented all algorithms in PRISM-games 3.0, thereby providing the first implementation of quadratic programming for solving simple stochastic games., Comment: In Proceedings GandALF 2020, arXiv:2009.09360

We consider the problem of approximating the reachability probabilities in Markov decision processes (MDP) with uncountable (continuous) state and action spaces. While there are algorithms that, for special classes of such MDP, provide a sequence of approximations converging to the true value in the limit, our aim is to obtain an algorithm with guarantees on the precision of the approximation. As this problem is undecidable in general, assumptions on the MDP are necessary. Our main contribution is to identify sufficient assumptions that are as weak as possible, thus approaching the "boundary" of which systems can be correctly and reliably analyzed. To this end, we also argue why each of our assumptions is necessary for algorithms based on processing finitely many observations. We present two solution variants. The first one provides converging lower bounds under weaker assumptions than typical ones from previous works concerned with guarantees. The second one then utilizes stronger assumptions to additionally provide converging upper bounds. Altogether, we obtain an anytime algorithm, i.e. yielding a sequence of approximants with known and iteratively improving precision, converging to the true value in the limit. Besides, due to the generality of our assumptions, our algorithms are very general templates, readily allowing for various heuristics from literature in contrast to, e.g., a specific discretization algorithm. Our theoretical contribution thus paves the way for future practical improvements without sacrificing correctness guarantees.

Robot capabilities are maturing across domains, from self-driving cars, to bipeds and drones. As a result, robots will soon no longer be confined to safety-controlled industrial settings; instead, they will directly interact with the general public. The growing field of Human-Robot Interaction (HRI) studies various aspects of this scenario - from social norms to joint action to human-robot teams and more. Researchers in HRI have made great strides in developing models, methods, and algorithms for robots acting with and around humans, but these "computational HRI" models and algorithms generally do not come with formal guarantees and constraints on their operation. To enable human-interactive robots to move from the lab to real-world deployments, we must address this gap. This article provides an overview of verification, validation and synthesis techniques used to create demonstrably trustworthy systems, describes several HRI domains that could benefit from such techniques, and provides a roadmap for the challenges and the research needed to create formalized and guaranteed human-robot interaction.

While abstraction is a classic tool of verification to scale it up, it is not used very often for verifying neural networks. However, it can help with the still open task of scaling existing algorithms to state-of-the-art network architectures. We introduce an abstraction framework applicable to fully-connected feed-forward neural networks based on clustering of neurons that behave similarly on some inputs. For the particular case of ReLU, we additionally provide error bounds incurred by the abstraction. We show how the abstraction reduces the size of the network, while preserving its accuracy, and how verification results on the abstract network can be transferred back to the original network., Comment: Accepted at ATVA 2020

Computer science class enrollments have rapidly risen in the past decade. With current class sizes, standard approaches to grading and providing personalized feedback are no longer possible and new techniques become both feasible and necessary. In this paper, we present the third version of Automata Tutor, a tool for helping teachers and students in large courses on automata and formal languages. The second version of Automata Tutor supported automatic grading and feedback for finite-automata constructions and has already been used by thousands of users in dozens of countries. This new version of Automata Tutor supports automated grading and feedback generation for a greatly extended variety of new problems, including problems that ask students to create regular expressions, context-free grammars, pushdown automata and Turing machines corresponding to a given description, and problems about converting between equivalent models - e.g., from regular expressions to nondeterministic finite automata. Moreover, for several problems, this new version also enables teachers and students to automatically generate new problem instances. We also present the results of a survey run on a class of 950 students, which shows very positive results about the usability and usefulness of the tool.

Decision tree learning is a popular classification technique most commonly used in machine learning applications. Recent work has shown that decision trees can be used to represent provably-correct controllers concisely. Compared to representations using lookup tables or binary decision diagrams, decision trees are smaller and more explainable. We present dtControl, an easily extensible tool for representing memoryless controllers as decision trees. We give a comprehensive evaluation of various decision tree learning algorithms applied to 10 case studies arising out of correct-by-construction controller synthesis. These algorithms include two new techniques, one for using arbitrary linear binary classifiers in the decision tree learning, and one novel approach for determinizing controllers during the decision tree construction. In particular the latter turns out to be extremely efficient, yielding decision trees with a single-digit number of decision nodes on 5 of the case studies.

We consider concurrent stochastic games played on graphs with reachability and safety objectives. These games can be solved by value iteration as well as strategy iteration, each of them yielding a sequence of under-approximations of the reachability value and a sequence of over-approximation of the safety value, converging to it in the limit. For both approaches, we provide the first (anytime) algorithms with stopping criteria. The stopping criterion for value iteration is based on providing a convergent sequence of over-approximations, which then allows to estimate the distance to the true value. For strategy iteration, we bound the error by complementing the strategy iteration algorithm for reachability by a new strategy iteration algorithm under-approximating the safety-value.

Simple stochastic games are turn-based 2.5-player games with a reachability objective. The basic question asks whether one player can ensure reaching a given target with at least a given probability. A natural extension is games with a conjunction of such conditions as objective. Despite a plethora of recent results on the analysis of systems with multiple objectives, the decidability of this basic problem remains open. In this paper, we present an algorithm approximating the Pareto frontier of the achievable values to a given precision. Moreover, it is an anytime algorithm, meaning it can be stopped at any time returning the current approximation and its error bound.

We propose "semantic labelling" as a novel ingredient for solving games in the context of LTL synthesis. It exploits recent advances in the automata-based approach, yielding more information for each state of the generated parity game than the game graph can capture. We utilize this extra information to improve standard approaches as follows. (i) Compared to strategy improvement (SI) with random initial strategy, a more informed initialization often yields a winning strategy directly without any computation. (ii) This initialization makes SI also yield smaller solutions. (iii) While Q-learning on the game graph turns out not too efficient, Q-learning with the semantic information becomes competitive to SI. Since already the simplest heuristics achieve significant improvements the experimental results demonstrate the utility of semantic labelling. This extra information opens the door to more advanced learning approaches both for initialization and improvement of strategies.

For hybrid Markov decision processes, UPPAAL Stratego can compute strategies that are safe for a given safety property and (in the limit) optimal for a given cost function. Unfortunately, these strategies cannot be exported easily since they are computed as a very long list. In this paper, we demonstrate methods to learn compact representations of the strategies in the form of decision trees. These decision trees are much smaller, more understandable, and can easily be exported as code that can be loaded into embedded systems. Despite the size compression and actual differences to the original strategy, we provide guarantees on both safety and optimality of the decision-tree strategy. On the top, we show how to obtain yet smaller representations, which are still guaranteed safe, but achieve a desired trade-off between size and optimality.

Graph games and Markov decision processes (MDPs) are standard models in reactive synthesis and verification of probabilistic systems with nondeterminism. The class of $\omega$-regular winning conditions; e.g., safety, reachability, liveness, parity conditions; provides a robust and expressive specification formalism for properties that arise in analysis of reactive systems. The resolutions of nondeterminism in games and MDPs are represented as strategies, and we consider succinct representation of such strategies. The decision-tree data structure from machine learning retains the flavor of decisions of strategies and allows entropy-based minimization to obtain succinct trees. However, in contrast to traditional machine-learning problems where small errors are allowed, for winning strategies in graph games and MDPs no error is allowed, and the decision tree must represent the entire strategy. In this work we propose decision trees with linear classifiers for representation of strategies in graph games and MDPs. We have implemented strategy representation using this data structure and we present experimental results for problems on graph games and MDPs, which show that this new data structure presents a much more efficient strategy representation as compared to standard decision trees., Comment: Full version of the paper. To appear in QEST 2019

We introduce a framework for approximate analysis of Markov decision processes (MDP) with bounded-, unbounded-, and infinite-horizon properties. The main idea is to identify a "core" of an MDP, i.e., a subsystem where we provably remain with high probability, and to avoid computation on the less relevant rest of the state space. Although we identify the core using simulations and statistical techniques, it allows for rigorous error bounds in the analysis. Consequently, we obtain efficient analysis algorithms based on partial exploration for various settings, including the challenging case of strongly connected systems.

Analysis of large continuous-time stochastic systems is a computationally intensive task. In this work we focus on population models arising from chemical reaction networks (CRNs), which play a fundamental role in analysis and design of biochemical systems. Many relevant CRNs are particularly challenging for existing techniques due to complex dynamics including stochasticity, stiffness or multimodal population distributions. We propose a novel approach allowing not only to predict, but also to explain both the transient and steady-state behaviour. It focuses on qualitative description of the behaviour and aims at quantitative precision only in orders of magnitude. Firstly, we abstract the CRN into a compact model preserving rough timing information, distinguishing only signifcinatly different populations, but capturing relevant sequences of behaviour. Secondly, we approximately analyse the most probable temporal behaviours of the model through most probable transitions. As demonstrated on complex CRNs from literature, our approach reproduces the known results, but in contrast to the state-of-the-art methods, it runs with virtually no computational cost and thus offers unprecedented~scalability.

Statistical model checking (SMC) is a technique for analysis of probabilistic systems that may be (partially) unknown. We present an SMC algorithm for (unbounded) reachability yielding probably approximately correct (PAC) guarantees on the results. We consider both the setting (i) with no knowledge of the transition function (with the only quantity required a bound on the minimum transition probability) and (ii) with knowledge of the topology of the underlying graph. On the one hand, it is the first algorithm for stochastic games. On the other hand, it is the first practical algorithm even for Markov decision processes. Compared to previous approaches where PAC guarantees require running times longer than the age of universe even for systems with a handful of states, our algorithm often yields reasonably precise results within minutes, not requiring the knowledge of mixing time or the topology of the whole model.

The maximum reachability probabilities in a Markov decision process can be computed using value iteration (VI). Recently, simulation-based heuristic extensions of VI have been introduced, such as bounded real-time dynamic programming (BRTDP), which often manage to avoid explicit analysis of the whole state space while preserving guarantees on the computed result. In this paper, we introduce a new class of such heuristics, based on Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS), a technique celebrated in various machine-learning settings. We provide a spectrum of algorithms ranging from MCTS to BRTDP. We evaluate these techniques and show that for larger examples, where VI is no more applicable, our techniques are more broadly applicable than BRTDP with only a minor additional overhead.