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The flood seasonality of catchments in Switzerland is likely to change under climate change because of anticipated alterations of precipitation as well as snow accumulation and melt. Information on this change is crucial for flood protection policies, for example, or regional flood frequency analysis. We analysed projected changes in mean annual and maximum floods of a 22-year period for 189 catchments in Switzerland and two scenario periods in the 21st century based on an ensemble of climate scenarios. The flood seasonality was analysed with directional statistics that allow assessing both changes in the mean date a flood occurs as well as changes in the strength of the seasonality. We found that the simulated change in flood seasonality is a function of the change in flow regime type. If snow accumulation and melt is important in a catchment during the control period, then the anticipated change in flood seasonality is most pronounced. Decreasing summer precipitation in the scenarios additionally affects the flood seasonality (mean date of flood occurrence) and leads to a decreasing strength of seasonality, that is a higher temporal variability in most cases. The magnitudes of mean annual floods and more clearly of maximum floods (in a 22-year period) are expected to increase in the future because of changes in flood-generating processes and scaled extreme precipitation. Southern alpine catchments show a different signal, though: the simulated mean annual floods decrease in the far future, that is at the end of the 21st century. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in land cover alter the water balance components of a catchment, due to strong interactions between soils, vegetation and the atmosphere. Therefore, hydrological climate impact studies should also integrate scenarios of associated land cover change. To reflect two severe climate-induced changes in land cover, we applied scenarios of glacier retreat and forest cover increase that were derived from the temperature signals of the climate scenarios used in this study. The climate scenarios consist of ten regional climate models from the ENSEMBLES project; their respective temperature and precipitation deltas are used to run a hydrological model. The relative importance of each of the three types of scenarios (climate, glacier, forest) is assessed through an analysis of variance (ANOVA). Altogether, 15 mountainous catchments in Switzerland are analysed, exhibiting different degrees of glaciation during the control period (0-51%) and different degrees of forest cover increase under scenarios of change (12-55% of the catchment area). The results show that even an extreme change in forest cover is negligible with respect to changes in runoff, but it is crucial as soon as evaporation or soil moisture is concerned. For the latter two variables, the relative impact of forest change is proportional to the magnitude of its change. For changes that concern 35% of the catchment area or more, the effect of forest change on summer evapotranspiration is equally or even more important than the climate signal. For catchment with a glaciation of 10% or more in the control period, the glacier retreat significantly determines summer and annual runoff. The most important source of uncertainty in hydrological climate impact studies is the climate scenario, though, and it is highly recommended to apply an ensemble of climate scenarios in impact studies. The results presented here are valid for the climatic region they were tested for, i.e. a humid, mid-latitude mountainous environment. They might be different for regions where the evaporation is a major component of the water balance, for example. Nevertheless, a hydrological climate-impact study that assesses the additional impacts of forest and glacier change is new so far and provides insight into the question whether or not it is necessary to account for land cover changes as part of climate change impacts on hydrological systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The opening up of China's industry towards market orientation has a distinct impact on natural resources as well as on social structures. The example of rubber introduction in Yunnan province (SW China) shows the mutual interdependencies between economy, natural resources, and social structures. We assess the impacts of rubber introduction and possible development paths in the study area. An integrated modeling framework (NabanFrame) is developed for the catchment of the Naban River (size 270 km²), a tributary to the Mekong River. NabanFrame comprises an agro-economic, ecological, and social model. Altogether they interact with a land-use change model via defined interfaces. Effects on the water cycle are considered by additionally integrating the spatially distributed rainfall-runoff and water balance model AKWA-M® in the model framework. Therefore, a reasonable parameterization is needed to assess the land-use changes on areal water fluxes. The authors conclude that the chosen hydrological model is able to assess the impacts of land conversion (from forest to rubber plantations) on catchment hydrology and address further adaptations to be implemented in the hydrological model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The hydromorphological analysis (HMA) is a method to quantify the potentials of mire revitalisation. In this study, the HMA is combined with the new peatland-tool of the water balance model AKWA-M®. This peatland-tool includes as well depth functions of the hydraulic conductivity and drainable porosity for several mire-ecotope-types as specific equations for mire evapotranspiration. The calculations were applied in several peatlands and mires of the German- Czech Ore Mountains (Erzgebirge/Krušné hory). The simulation results show that the chosen depth functions are valuable for the water balance calculation of mire ecotopes with a fully developed akrotelm like ombro- and mesotrophic peatlands. For degenerated peat soil or regenerating mires it is necessary to improve the model and the parameter calibration, especially the depth functions, with additional measured data in different peatlands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent observed hydro-climatic changes in mountainous areas are of concern as they may directly affect capacity to fulfill water needs. The canton of Vaud in Western Switzerland is an example of such a region as it has experienced water shortage episodes during the past decade. Based on an integrated modeling framework, this study explores how hydro-climatic conditions and water needs could evolve in mountain environments and assesses their potential impacts on water stress by the 2060 horizon. Flows were simulated based on a daily semi-distributed hydrological model. Future changes were derived from Swiss climate scenarios based on two regional climate models. Regarding water needs, the authorities of the canton of Vaud provided a population growth scenario while irrigation and livestock trends followed a business-as-usual scenario. Currently, the canton of Vaud experiences moderate water stress from June to August, except in its Alpine area where no stress is noted. In the 2060 horizon, water needs could exceed 80% of the rivers' available resources in low- to mid-altitude environments in mid-summer. This arises from the combination of drier and warmer climate that leads to longer and more severe low flows, and increasing urban (+40%) and irrigation (+25%) water needs. Highlighting regional differences supports the development of sustainable development pathways to reduce water tensions. Based on a quantitative assessment, this study also calls for broader impact studies including water quality issues., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)