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Background: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) in young children and is associated with subsequent recurrent wheezing illness and asthma (wheeze/asthma). RSV prevention may therefore reduce wheeze/asthma prevalence. Objectives: We estimated the contribution of RSV LRTI and the impact of RSV prevention on recurrent wheeze/asthma in Mali. Methods: We simulated 12 consecutive monthly birth cohorts in Mali and estimated RSV LRTI cases through 2 years and recurrent wheeze/asthma prevalence at 6 years under different RSV prevention scenarios: status quo, seasonal birth-dose extended half-life mAb, and seasonal birth-dose extended half-life mAb followed by 2 doses of pediatric vaccine (mAb + vaccine). We used World Health Organization (WHO) Preferred Product Characteristics for RSV prevention, demographic and RSV epidemiologic data from Mali, regional recurrent wheeze/asthma prevalence, and relative risk of recurrent wheeze/asthma given early childhood RSV LRTI. Results: Among the simulated cohort of 778,680 live births, 10.0% had RSV LRTI by 2 years and 89.6% survived to 6 years. We estimated that 13.4% of all recurrent wheeze/asthma at 6 years was attributable to RSV LRTI. Recurrent wheeze/asthma prevalence at 6 years was 145.0 per 10,000 persons (RSV LRTI attributable) and 1084.2 per 10,000 persons (total). In mAb and mAb + vaccine scenarios, RSV LRTI cases decreased by 11.8% and 44.4%, respectively, and recurrent wheeze/asthma prevalence decreased by 11.8% and 44.4% (RSV LRTI attributable) and 1.6% and 5.9% (total). Conclusion: In Mali, RSV prevention programs may have a meaningful impact on chronic respiratory disease, strengthening the case for investment in RSV prevention.

OBJECTIVES:. We sought to validate prognostic scores in coronavirus disease 2019 including National Early Warning Score, Modified Early Warning Score, and age-based modifications, and define their performance characteristics. DESIGN:. We analyzed prospectively collected data from the Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial. National Early Warning Score was collected daily during the trial, Modified Early Warning Score was calculated, and age applied to both scores. We assessed prognostic value for the end points of recovery, mechanical ventilation, and death for score at enrollment, average, and slope of score over the first 48 hours. SETTING:. A multisite international inpatient trial. PATIENTS:. A total of 1,062 adult nonpregnant inpatients with severe coronavirus disease 2019 pneumonia. INTERVENTIONS:. Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial 1 randomized participants to receive remdesivir or placebo. The prognostic value of predictive scores was evaluated in both groups separately to assess for differential performance in the setting of remdesivir treatment. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS:. For mortality, baseline National Early Warning Score and Modified Early Warning Score were weakly to moderately prognostic (c-index, 0.60–0.68), and improved with addition of age (c-index, 0.66–0.74). For recovery, baseline National Early Warning Score and Modified Early Warning Score demonstrated somewhat better prognostic ability (c-index, 0.65–0.69); however, National Early Warning Score+age and Modified Early Warning Score+age further improved performance (c-index, 0.68–0.71). For deterioration, baseline National Early Warning Score and Modified Early Warning Score were weakly to moderately prognostic (c-index, 0.59–0.69) and improved with addition of age (c-index, 0.63–0.70). All prognostic performance improvements due to addition of age were significant (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS:. In the Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial 1 cohort, National Early Warning Score and Modified Early Warning Score demonstrated moderate prognostic performance in patients with severe coronavirus disease 2019, with improvement in predictive ability for National Early Warning Score+age and Modified Early Warning Score+age. Area under receiver operating curve for National Early Warning Score and Modified Early Warning Score improved in patients receiving remdesivir versus placebo early in the pandemic for recovery and mortality. Although these scores are simple and readily obtainable in myriad settings, in our data set, they were insufficiently predictive to completely replace clinical judgment in coronavirus disease 2019 and may serve best as an adjunct to triage, disposition, and resourcing decisions.