Search

Northeast China (NEC) is located between the subtropical monsoon and temperate-frigid monsoon regions and exhibits two successive rainy seasons with different natures: the northeast cold vortex rainy season in early summer (May–June) and the monsoon rainy season in late summer (July–August). Summer rainfall over NEC (NECR) has a fundamental influence on society, yet its successful seasonal prediction remains a long-term scientific challenge to current dynamical models. The poor NECR prediction skill is partly attributed to the large NECR variability at both the interannual and interdecadal time scales. Here, we focus on the oceanic drivers of the late summer NECR variability and associated physical processes at interannual time scale. Then, we establish an empirical prediction model to predict the interannual variability of summer NECR at 1-month lead time (in June). The analysis of observations spanning 40 years (1963–2002) reveals three physically and synergistically influencing predictors of the late summer NECR interannual variability. Above-normal NECR is preceded in the previous spring by (a) warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical northern Indian Ocean, (b) a positive thermal contrast tendency in the tropical West–East Pacific SST, and (c) a positive tendency of the North Atlantic tripolar SST. These precursors enhance the anomalous low-level anticyclone over the western North Pacific and southerly anomalies over NEC in late summer, which are beneficial to enhancing NECR. An empirical prediction model built on these three predictors achieves a forecast temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) skill of 0.72 for 1961–2019, and a 17-year (2003–2019) independent forecast shows a significant TCC skill of 0.70. The skill is substantially higher than that of five state-of-the-art dynamical models and their ensemble mean for 1979–2019 (TCC = 0.24). These results suggest that the proposed empirical model is a meaningful approach for the prediction of NECR, although the dynamical prediction of NECR has considerable room for improvement.

Persistent extreme heat events (PEHEs) exert a more negative impact on society, including agriculture, plant phenology, power production and human health, compared to general EHEs. The temporal and spatial characteristics of summer PEHEs in eastern China were analysed based on a daily maximum temperature dataset from 759 stations over the period of 1961–2018. The results show the following: Persistent distributions of PEHEs show that they are characterized by an exponential decay with a drop in the decay rate. In terms of spatial distribution, there is an apparent regional difference in the duration of PEHEs. North China is dominated by multi-frequency and short-duration EHEs, while South China is the opposite. PEHEs in North China and the Huanghuai region mainly occur in June-July but mostly in July and August in South China. Strongly responding to global warming, the frequency and duration of PEHEs in North China have increased since the 1990s. However, the frequency of PEHEs in North China and the Huanghuai region has shown opposite trends in June-July since the beginning of the twenty-first century. Affected by the atmospheric circulations, the regional differences in PEHE frequency are also apparent. Since the beginning of the twenty-first century, the PEHEs in North China and the Huanghuai area have shown an increasing trend in August. The short-term PEHEs in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and South China increased rapidly in the 2000s, while long-term PEHEs increased in the 2010s. This study implies that attention should be paid to not only the frequency of EH days but also to the persistence of EHE which is a key characteristic of damaging EH.

In 2021, the Yangtze–Huaihe River Basin (YHRB) of China underwent nearly normal precipitation during the classical Meiyu period in June–July but suffered extreme precipitation and severe floods in August. Such a remarkable subseasonal variation in the YHRB precipitation anomalies was closely related to the subseasonal change in the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC) between June–July and August 2021. The background of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies is a moderate eastern-Pacific La Niña event rapidly decayed in spring and a second La Niña developing in late summer, accompanied by a weak tropical Indian Ocean warming and a strong tropical Atlantic warming in summer. The results indicated that the rapidly decaying La Niña event and the weak tropical Indian Ocean warming alone were insufficient to induce the strong WNPAC in August 2021. In contrast, the rapid tropical Atlantic warming from late spring to summer observably contributed to the enhancement and westward shift of the WNPAC, and the cold SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific associated with the second La Niña event provided favorable conditions for a strong WNPAC in August. In addition, the Madden − Julian Oscillation (MJO) persisting in phases 1 − 2 during August 2021 maybe also played an important role in maintaining the simultaneous strong WNPAC. That is, the rapid tropical Atlantic warming, the second La Niña event and the MJO standing in phases 1 − 2 jointly contributed to the strong WNPAC, and lead to extreme precipitation over YHRB in August 2021.

In this paper, the spatial and temporal characteristics of convective precipitation (CP) and large-scale precipitation (LSP) in southern China during 1980-2020 are analyzed using monthly mean precipitation data from MERRA-2. In addition, the possible effects of relative humidity on CP and LSP are explored. The results indicate the following. (1) The LSP dominates the proportion of total precipitation (TP). Both LSP and CP are more prevalent in the south and less prevalent in the north, but there is a difference in the regions of their maximum centers. (2) Significant interannual and seasonal variations are observed in precipitation. TP and LSP tended to be higher than average after the 1990s, while for the CP, a negative trend has dominated the past years with considerable fluctuation. There are obvious increasing trends for TP and LSP, with area-averaged linear trends of 7.0 mm/year and 8.9 mm/year, respectively, while that of CP is -1.9 mm/year. The increasing trends of LSP are mainly contributed by the precipitation of summer and autumn. (3) The variations of LSP are affected by relative humidity in the troposphere, while CP is only influenced by the changes in relative humidity due to air temperature or specific humidity. The trend of relative humidity is -0.32%/decade, mainly due to rising temperature in the troposphere. (4) Changes in specific humidity caused by temperature or specific humidity alone act on large-scale precipitation through both interannual and interdecadal processes, causing large-scale precipitation to increase. And the convective precipitation is mainly affected by the interdecadal processes.

This study reveals the spatial and temporal variations of summer extreme heat (EH) distribution in China under the background of anthropogenic climate change. Using data from 1542 meteorological st...

The mesoporous phenol-formaldehyde resins (PFR) were synthesized using formaldehyde, phenol, F127 template as raw materials by high temperature hydrothermal method under different temperatures. Nitrogen doped mesoporous PFR were synthesized in the same way with another additional raw material HMTA. Two series of carbon materials PCs and PCNs were obtained after calcinating PFR at 700, 800, 900 °C. N2 adsorption analysis indicates that both the two kind of carbon materials have relatively large specific surface area (325–619 cm2/g for PCs and 431–580 cm2/g for PCNs). TEM and XRD analyses prove highly ordered mesoporous structure of the samples. Both the elemental analysis and IR results suggest a high carbon content and the abundant fused-ring structure of the test materials. The positron annihilation spectra show that the corresponding intensity I3 of the longest lifetime component τ3 is less than 2%, indicating that the π electrons in the fused rings with low ionization energy are capable of trapping positrons and inhibiting the formation of o-Ps.

The present study investigates relative contributions of interannual, intraseasonal, and synoptic variations of environmental factors to tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the northern tropical Atlantic (NTA) during July–October. Analysis shows that convection, lower-level vorticity, and midlevel specific humidity contribute to TC genesis through intraseasonal and synoptic variations with a larger contribution of the latter. The relative contribution of three components of vertical wind shear depends largely on its magnitude. The contribution of sea surface temperature (SST) to TC genesis is mainly due to the interannual component when total SST is above 27.5°C. The barotropic energy for the development of synoptic-scale disturbances comes mainly from climatological mean flows and intraseasonal wind variations. The proportion of contribution between synoptic and intraseasonal variations of convection, relative vorticity, and specific humidity is larger over the eastern NTA than over the western NTA. The barotropic energy conversion has a larger part related to climatological mean flows and intraseasonal wind variations over the eastern and western NTA, respectively. There are notable differences between the NTA and the western North Pacific (WNP). One is that the relative contribution of synoptic variations of convection, relative vorticity, and specific humidity is larger over the NTA, whereas that of intraseasonal variations is larger over the WNP. The other is that the barotropic energy conversion related to climatological mean flows and intraseasonal wind variations is comparable over the NTA, whereas that related to climatological mean flows is larger over the WNP.

Summer precipitation in the northern China monsoon region (NCMR; 35°–55°N, 108°–135°E) shows significant intraseasonal variability. The early-summer (June) and late-summer (July–August) precipitati...

We analyzed the anomalous characteristics of autumn rain in western China (ARWC) (26.2–36° N, 101.9–111.8° E) in 2017 and the related large-scale atmospheric circulations based on new monitoring indicators published by the China Meteorological Administration in 2015 and the National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis data. We found that the characteristics of autumn rain in the southern (33–36° N, 101.9–111.8° E) and northern (26.2–33° N, 101.9–111.8° E) regions of the monitoring area were different. The onset date of autumn rain in the north (south) of the monitoring area in 2017 was 14 (16) days earlier than in normal years, which is in the 4th (4th) place since 1961. The end of the autumn rain was 5 days later (earlier) than in normal years. The autumn rain period was 54 (63) days long, 19 (11) days longer than in normal years. The autumn rainfall in the north (south) of the monitoring area was 234.1 (322.2) mm, 72.6% (74.4%) higher than that in normal years. The amount of autumn rain in the southern region is in the second place since 1965. The cause of this significantly early onset of the ARWC in 2017 was the advanced transition of the East Asian atmospheric circulation system from a summer pattern to a winter pattern. The westerly jet in the upper troposphere appeared about 10 days earlier than in normal years. The meridional circulation of a west-high and east-low pattern was observed in the mid- and lower troposphere in the mid- and high latitudes of Eurasia. This circulation configuration resulted in an early onset of the ARWC. As a result of the influence of the persistent warming of the Indian Ocean basin-wide mode from spring to summer, the west Pacific subtropical high was extremely strong (the second strongest since 1981) and its westernmost point was greatly extended to the west (the second greatest extension since 1981) during the autumn rain period. The intensity of the moisture flux from the southwest of the western Pacific subtropical high was stronger than usual and the low trough of Lake Baikal was also strong. Cold air from the north and the abundant warm, humid water vapor from the south converged in western China, resulting in more precipitation during the autumn rain period.

Persistent extreme heat events (PEHEs) exert a more negative impact on society, including agriculture, plant phenology, power production and human health, compared to general EHEs. The temporal and spatial characteristics of summer PEHEs in eastern China were analysed based on a daily maximum temperature dataset from 759 stations over the period of 1961–2018. The results show the following: Persistent distributions of PEHEs show that they are characterized by an exponential decay with a drop in the decay rate. In terms of spatial distribution, there is an apparent regional difference in the duration of PEHEs. North China is dominated by multi-frequency and short-duration EHEs, while South China is the opposite. PEHEs in North China and the Huanghuai region mainly occur in June-July but mostly in July and August in South China. Strongly responding to global warming, the frequency and duration of PEHEs in North China have increased since the 1990s. However, the frequency of PEHEs in North China and the Huanghuai region has shown opposite trends in June-July since the beginning of the 21st century. Affected by the atmospheric circulations, the regional differences in PEHE frequency are also apparent. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the PEHEs in North China and the Huanghuai area have shown an increasing trend in August. The short-term PEHEs in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and South China increased rapidly in the 2000s, while long-term PEHEs increased in the 2010s. This study implies that attention should be paid to not only the frequency of EH days but also to the persistence of EHE which is a key characteristic of damaging EH.

We report here a high temperature directed, self-assembly to the synthesis of ordered mesoporous organic polymers (OMPs) with different nanopore sizes and BET surface areas. The synthesized OMPs have large BET surface areas (219–512 m2/g), ordered mesopores, and adjustable pore volumes (0.20–0.48 cm3/g). Their rules of sub-nano level structures such as free volumes, unopened nanopores and electronic environment in the synthesized OMP materials were systematically investigated by using positron annihilation lifetime spectroscopy, which acts as an important technique for investigating microstructures of ordered mesoporous organic polymers and optimization of synthetic conditions of porous organic polymers.

In this study, the summer rainfall patterns in the East China monsoon region during 1951–2015 were objectively classified into four typical categories: the northern China rainfall pattern (NCP), the intermediate rainfall pattern (IRP), the Yangtze River rainfall pattern (YRP), and the South China rainfall pattern (SCP). The periods of the four patterns show significant decadal characteristics. The NCP occurred mainly between the late 1950s and the early 1980s, and the IRP in the late 1950s to the early 1970s and the 2000s. The YRP occurred mainly between the 1980s and the 1990s, and the SCP between the mid-1990s and the early 21st century. The relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon index (EASM I WF) and the four rainfall patterns was comparatively analyzed. The results confirmed that the four rainfall patterns have obvious differences in the EASM. In the NCP, IRP, or SCP years, the EASM I WF primarily showed a positive phase and a strong summer monsoon; in the YRP years, the EASM I WF primarily showed a negative phase and a weak summer monsoon.

The Eurasian teleconnection pattern (EU) is an important low-frequency pattern with well-known impacts on climate anomalies in Eurasia. The difference of low-level v-winds in several regions in the Eurasian mid–high latitudes is defined as the EU index (EUIV). In this study, the relationship between the winter EUIV and precipitation in the following summer over China is investigated. Results show that there is a significant positive (negative) correlation between the winter EUIV and the following summer precipitation over North China (the Yangtze River–Huaihe River basins). Meanwhile, an interdecadal variability exists in the interannual relationship, and the correlation has become significantly enhanced since the early 1980s. Thus, the proposed EUIV may have implications for the prediction of summer precipitation anomalies over China. In positive winter EUIV years, three cyclonic circulation anomalies are observed—over the Ural Mountains, the Okhotsk Sea, and the subtropical western North Pacific. That is, the Ural blocking and Okhotsk blocking are inactive, zonal circulation prevails in the mid–high latitudes, and the western Pacific subtropical high tends to be weaker and locates to the north of its normal position in the following summer. This leads to above-normal moisture penetrating into the northern part of East China, and significant positive (negative) precipitation anomalies over North China (the Yangtze River–Huaihe River basins), and vice versa. Further examination shows that the SST anomalies over the Northwest Pacific and subtropical central North Pacific may both contribute to the formation of EUIV-related circulation anomalies over the western North Pacific.

Precipitation predictions during the flood season are critical and imperative on continents, especially in monsoon-impacted areas. However, majority of current dynamical models failed to predict the flood-season rainfall very well, although their simulations are high correct. In this study, based on the EOF decomposition of multi-factors field, we used a similar-error correction method to improve model prediction effect, which we call dynamic–statistic combined prediction method. Chinese Global atmosphere-ocean Coupled Model/Climate System Model was combined with dynamic–statistic combined prediction method as a case and the real-time prediction during 2009-2019 were implemented. The spatial anomaly correlation coefficient between predicted and observed values was used to assess the effectiveness of the improvement. The results show that the average anomaly correlation coefficient scores of dynamic–statistic combined prediction method (0.16) is 0.12 higher than that of Chinese Global atmosphere-ocean Coupled Model/Climate System Model (0.04), implying that dynamic–statistic combined prediction method has a broad application prospects in precipitation prediction. We suggest that dynamic–statistic combined prediction method should be promoted to other models for testing.

In this paper, we investigated the spatio-temporal characteristics of the amount of light rain and the number of days with light rain in the ESWC and explored the possible causes of the significant decrease in the number of days with light rain. The results show that: (1) Both the amount of light rain and the number of days with light rain over the ESWC in summer showed a decreasing trend, with linear trends of −1.5 mm/decade and −0.88 day/decade, respectively. The decrease in the number of days with light rain was more distinct than the decrease in the amount of light rain. (2) The decrease in the number of days with light rain was closely related to the decrease in the relative humidity caused by an increase in temperature and specific humidity. The trend in relative humidity resulting from an increase in temperature alone was −1.1%/decade, whereas the trend in relative humidity caused by an increase in specific humidity alone was 0.29%/decade. The trend in relative humidity was −0.76%/decade. The decrease in relative humidity was mainly a result of an increase in temperature. (3) The increase in temperature resulted in a decrease in the relative humidity and an increase in the surface evaporation. The increase in evaporation increased the specific humidity, which, in turn, increased the relative humidity. This compensated for the decrease in the relative humidity caused by the increase in the temperature and further decelerated the decrease in the number of days with light rain.

In this paper, the northward jump time of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) is defined and analyzed on the interdecadal timescale. The results show that under global warming, significant interdecadal changes have occurred in the time of the WPSH northward jumps. From 1951 to 2012, the time of the first northward jump of WPSH has changed from “continuously early” to “continuously late”, with the transition occurring in 1980. The time of the second northward jump of WPSH shows a similar change, with the transition occurring in 1978. In this study, we offer a new perspective by using the time of the northward jump of WPSH to explain the eastern China summer rainfall pattern change from “north-abundant-south-below-average” to “south-abundant-north-below-average” at the end of the 1970s. The interdecadal change in the time of the northward jump of WPSH corresponds not only with the summer rainfall pattern, but also with the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). The WPSH northward jump time corresponding to the cold (warm) phase of the PDO is early (late). Although the PDO and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) both greatly influence the time of the two northward jumps of WPSH, the PDO’s effect is noticed before the ENSO’s by approximately 1–2 months. After excluding the ENSO influence, we derive composite vertical atmospheric circulation for different phases of the PDO. The results show that during the cold (warm) phase of the PDO, the atmospheric circulations at 200, 500, and 850 hPa all contribute to an earlier (later) northward jump of the WPSH.

With the influence of global warming, the global climate has undergone significant inter-decadal variation since the late 1970s. Although El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been the strongest signal for predicting global climate inter-annual variability, its relation with the summer rainfall in China has significantly changed, and its indicative function on the summer rainfall in China has weakened. This has led to a significant decrease in the accuracy rate of early conceptual prediction models for the Three Rainfall Patterns in the summer of eastern China. On the basis of the difference analysis of atmospheric circulation system configuration in summer, as well as the interaction of ocean and atmospheric in previous winter between two phases, i.e. before and after the significant global warming (1951 to 1978 and 1979 to 2012, respectively), we concluded that (1) Under different inter-decadal backgrounds, the atmospheric circulations that impacted the Three Rainfall Patterns in the summer of eastern China showed consistency, but in the latter phase of the global warming, the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) was on the strong side, the position of which was in the south, and the blocking high in the Eurasia mid-high latitudes was active, while the polar vortex extended to the south, and meridional circulation intensified. This circulation background may have been conducive to the increase of the circulation frequency of Patterns II and III, and the decrease of the circulation frequency of Pattern I, thus leading to more Patterns II and III and fewer Pattern I in the summer rainfall of eastern China. (2) In the former phase, the corresponding previous winter SST fields of different rainfall patterns showed visible differences. The impact of ENSO on North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) was great, and the identification ability of which on Patterns I and II of summer rainfall was effective. In the latter phase, this identification ability decreased, while the impact of ENSO on the Pacific/North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern increased, and the identification ability of the PNA on Patterns II and III also increased. Based on the new inter-decadal climate background, this study reconstructs the conceptual prediction model for the Three Rainfall Patterns in summer of eastern China by using the previous winter PNA and the Eurasian (EU) teleconnection indexes. The fitting effect was satisfying, though it is necessary to be further tested.

Based on the 1983∼2011 CMAP data, the precipitation anomaly in East Asia and its nearby sea regions (hereafter called East Asia for short) demonstrates the “+−+” pattern before 1999 and the “−+−” pattern afterwards; this decadal change is contained principally in the corresponding EOF3 component. However, the NCC_CGCM forecast results are quite different, which reveal the “+−+−” pattern before 1999 and the “−+−+” pattern afterwards. Meanwhile, the probability of improving NCC_CGCM’s forecast accuracy based on these key SST areas is discussed, and the dynamic-statistics combined forecast scheme is constructed for increasing the information of decadal change contained in the summer precipitation in East Asia. The independent sample forecast results indicate that this forecasting scheme can effectively modify the NCC_CGCM’s decadal change information contained in the summer precipitation in East Asia (especially in the area of 30°N–55°N). The ACC is 0.25 and ACR is 61% for the forecasting result based on the V SST area, and the mean ACC is 0.03 and ACR is 51% for the seven key areas, which are better than NCC_CGCM’s system error correction results (ACC is −0.01 and ACR is 49%). Besides, the modified forecast results also provide the information that the precipitation anomaly in East Asia mainly shows the “+−+” pattern before 1999 and the “−+−” pattern afterwards.

A continuous overcast-rainy weather (CORW) process occurred over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR) in China from February 14 to March 9 in 2009, with a large stretch and long duration that was rarely seen in historical records. Using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF), we analyzed the geopotential height anomaly field of the NCEP-DOE Reanalysis II in the same period, and defined the stable components of extended-range (10–30 days) weather forecast (ERWF). Furthermore, we defined anomalous and climatic stable components based on the variation characteristics of the variance contribution ratio of EOF components. The climatic stable components were able to explain the impact of climatically averaged information on the ERWF, and the anomalous stable components revealed the abnormal characteristics of the continuous overcast-rainy days. Our results show that the stable components, especially the anomalous stable components, can maintain the stability for a longer time (more than 10 days) and manifest as monthly scale low-frequency variation and ultra-long-wave activities. They also behave as ultra-long waves of planetary scale with a stable and vertically coherent structure, reflect the variation of general circulation in mid-high latitudes, display the cycle of the zonal circulation and the movement and adjustment of the ultra-long waves, and are closely linked to the surface CORW process.

Recently, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) released a new set of reanalysis data—ERA-Interim. We make an intercomparison between ERA-Interim precipitation and observed precipitation in Northeast China. The results show that, in general, the ERA-Interim reanalysis precipitation data can describe the spatial and temporal characteristics of seasonal precipitation in Northeast China well. In terms of spatial distribution, ERA-Interim precipitation is generally consistent with the observation data in different seasons in Northeast China. There is a larger difference in the center of Northeast China than in other areas between the two kinds of data. The ERA-Interim precipitation is larger than observed precipitation in most of Northeast China. In spring, autumn, and winter, the ERA-Interim precipitation value is close to the observation one, while in summer there is a large difference in Liaoning Peninsula and Changbai Mountain between the two kinds of precipitation data. In terms of temporal characteristics, the time series of the ERA-Interim precipitation matches well with the observed precipitation in whole. In different seasons, the annual variation of the ERA-Interim precipitation is well correlated with that of the observed precipitation.