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Background Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Here, we present projections of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in the United States for the next 2 years under 2 plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and 3 possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65 years and over, vaccination for all eligible age groups based on FDA approval). Methods and findings The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023 and April 15, 2025 under 6 scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. Annually reformulated vaccines are assumed to be 65% effective against symptomatic infection with strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age- and state-specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster. State and national projections from 8 modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario and expected reductions in disease outcomes due to vaccination over the projection period. From April 15, 2023 to April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November to January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% projection interval (PI) [1,438,000, 4,270,000]) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI [139,000, 461,000]) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% confidence interval (CI) [104,000, 355,000]) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI [12,000, 54,000]) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000-598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI [29,000, 69,000]) fewer deaths. Conclusions COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming 2 years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease, saving tens of thousands of lives each year., Author(s): Sung-mok Jung 1, Sara L. Loo 2, Emily Howerton 3, Lucie Contamin 4, Claire P. Smith 2, Erica C. Carcelén 2, Katie Yan 3, Samantha J. Bents 5, John [...]

Background: With decades of containment efforts, the prevalence of C. sinensis infection in Korea has shown a declining trend. However, well-tailored intervention assessments remain challenging, particularly when considering the potential impacts of cohort variations in raw freshwater fish consumption behavior, a major transmission route to humans, on this observed decline. Methodology: We applied an age-period-cohort modeling approach to nationally representative C. sinensis infection prevalence data from 1981–2012 in Korea to assess age, period, and cohort effects on its secular trend and to project the age-stratified prevalence up to 2023. Principal findings: Our analysis suggests that both cohort and period effects have substantially contributed to the declining prevalence of C. sinensis infection in Korea. Age-stratified projections up to 2023 suggest a decline in prevalence across all age groups, while those aged over 40 are anticipated to maintain prevalences above the elimination threshold of 1%. Conclusions: Our study highlights the importance of incorporating cohort effects into intervention assessments aimed at controlling C. sinensis infection. The effectiveness of interventions remains evident in Korea despite adjusting for the cohort effect. This approach, applicable to other endemic countries, would provide valuable insights for intervention assessments and inform future public health planning to eliminate C. sinensis infection. Author summary: Clonorchis sinensis (C. sinensis) infection, a neglected chronic parasitic infection, continues to be a significant public health concern with severe implications. Despite ongoing containment efforts leading to a decline in prevalence in Korea, assessing interventions remains challenging, due to variations in infection risk across different birth cohorts, driven by generational differences in raw freshwater fish consumption. We applied the age-period-cohort modeling approach to nationally representative C. sinensis infection prevalence data from 1981–2012 in Korea. Our analysis showed both cohort and period effects have significantly contributed to the observed decline in the prevalence of C. sinensis infection in Korea throughout the study period. Notably, the effectiveness of interventions remains evident even after adjusting for the cohort effect. Projections of age-stratified prevalence up to 2023 suggest a downward trend across all age groups. However, those aged over 40 are expected to maintain a prevalence exceeding 1%, highlighting the imperative for ongoing sustained efforts toward disease elimination. The age-period-cohort modeling framework offers broad applicability in other liver fluke endemic countries, particularly where data on host reservoirs beyond humans is limited. This approach provides valuable insights for future public health planning and resource allocation, aiming to mitigate the disease burden in affected regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many countries affected by the global outbreak of mpox in 2022 have observed a decline in cases. Our mathematical model accounting for heavy-tailed sexual partnership distributions suggests that mpox epidemics can hit the infection-derived herd immunity threshold and begin to decline, with <1% of sexually active men who have sex with men infected regardless of interventions or behavioral changes. We consistently found that many countries and US states experienced an epidemic peak, with cumulative cases of around 0.1% to 0.5% among men who have sex with men. The observed decline in cases may not necessarily be attributable to interventions or behavioral changes primarily. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction of African swine fever (ASF) to China in mid-2018 and the subsequent transboundary spread across Asia devastated regional swine production, affecting live pig and pork product-related markets worldwide. To explore the spatiotemporal spread of ASF in China, we reconstructed possible ASF transmission networks using nearest neighbour, exponential function, equal probability, and spatiotemporal case-distribution algorithms. From these networks, we estimated the reproduction numbers, serial intervals, and transmission distances of the outbreak. The mean serial interval between paired units was around 29 days for all algorithms, while the mean transmission distance ranged 332 –456 km. The reproduction numbers for each algorithm peaked during the first two weeks and steadily declined through the end of 2018 before hovering around the epidemic threshold value of 1 with sporadic increases during 2019. These results suggest that 1) swine husbandry practices and production systems that lend themselves to long-range transmission drove ASF spread; 2) outbreaks went undetected by the surveillance system. Efforts by China and other affected countries to control ASF within their jurisdictions may be aided by the reconstructed spatiotemporal model. Continued support for strict implementation of biosecurity standards and improvements to ASF surveillance is essential for halting transmission in China and spread across Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heavy‐metal‐free ternary Cu–In–Se quantum dots (CISe QDs) are promising for solar fuel production because of their low toxicity, tunable band gap, and high light absorption coefficient. Although defects significantly affect the photophysical properties of QDs, the influence on photoelectrochemical hydrogen production is not well understood. Herein, we present the defect engineering of CISe QDs for efficient solar‐energy conversion. Lewis acid–base reactions between metal halide–oleylamine complexes and oleylammonium selenocarbamate are modulated to achieve CISe QDs with the controlled amount of Cu vacancies without changing their morphology. Among them, CISe QDs with In/Cu = 1.55 show the most outstanding photoelectrochemical hydrogen generation with excellent photocurrent density of up to 10.7 mA cm−2 (at 0.6 VRHE), attributed to the suitable electronic band structures and enhanced carrier concentrations/lifetimes of the QDs. The proposed method, which can effectively control the defects in heavy‐metal‐free ternary QDs, offers a deeper understanding of the effects of the defects and provides a practical approach to enhance photoelectrochemical hydrogen generation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]