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Atmospheric gravity waves (GWs), or buoyancy waves, transport momentum and energy through Earth’s atmosphere. GWs are important at nearly all levels of the atmosphere, though, the momentum they transport is particularly important in general circulation of the middle and upper atmosphere. Primary sources of atmospheric GWs are flow over mountains, moist convection, and imbalances in jet/frontal systems. Secondary GWs can also be generated as a result of dissipation of a primary GWs. Gravity waves typically have horizontal wavelengths of 10’s to 100’s of kilometers, though, they can have scales of 1’s to 1000’s of kilometers as well. Current effective resolutions of climate models, and even numerical weather prediction models, do not resolve significant portions of the momentum- and energy-flux-carrying GW spectrum, and so parameterizations are necessary to represent under- and unresolved GWs in most current models. Here, an overview of GWs generated by orography, convection, jet/front systems, primary wave breaking, and secondary wave generation is provided. The basic theory of GW generation, propagation, and dissipation relevant to parameterization is presented. Conventionally used GW parameterizations are then reviewed. Lastly, we describe uncertainties and parameter tuning in current parameterizations and discuss known processes that are currently missing.

Four state-of-the-science numerical weather prediction (NWP) models were used to perform mountain wave (MW)-resolving hindcasts over the Drake Passage of a 10-day period in 2010 with numerous observed MW cases. The Integrated Forecast System (IFS) and the Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) model were run at Δx ≈ 9 and 13 km globally. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and the Met Office Unified Model (UM) were both configured with a Δx = 3-km regional domain. All domains had tops near 1 Pa (z ≈ 80 km). These deep domains allowed quantitative validation against Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) observations, accounting for observation time, viewing geometry, and radiative transfer. All models reproduced observed middle-atmosphere MWs with remarkable skill. Increased horizontal resolution improved validations. Still, all models underrepresented observed MW amplitudes, even after accounting for model effective resolution and instrument noise, suggesting even at Δx ≈ 3-km resolution, small-scale MWs are underresolved and/or overdiffused. MW drag parameterizations are still necessary in NWP models at current operational resolutions of Δx ≈ 10 km. Upper GW sponge layers in the operationally configured models significantly, artificially reduced MW amplitudes in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere. In the IFS, parameterized GW drags partly compensated this deficiency, but still, total drags were ≈6 times smaller than that resolved at Δx ≈ 3 km. Meridionally propagating MWs significantly enhance zonal drag over the Drake Passage. Interestingly, drag associated with meridional fluxes of zonal momentum (i.e., ) were important; not accounting for these terms results in a drag in the wrong direction at and below the polar night jet. Significance Statement This study had three purposes: to quantitatively evaluate how well four state-of-the-science weather models could reproduce observed mountain waves (MWs) in the middle atmosphere, to compare the simulated MWs within the models, and to quantitatively evaluate two MW parameterizations in a widely used climate model. These models reproduced observed MWs with remarkable skill. Still, MW parameterizations are necessary in current Δx ≈ 10-km resolution global weather models. Even Δx ≈ 3-km resolution does not appear to be high enough to represent all momentum-fluxing MW scales. Meridionally propagating MWs can significantly influence zonal winds over the Drake Passage. Parameterizations that handle horizontal propagation may need to consider horizontal fluxes of horizontal momentum in order to get the direction of their forcing correct.

Effects of realistic propagation of gravity waves (GWs) on distribution of GW pseudomomentum fluxes are explored using a global ray-tracing model for the 2009 sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event. Four-dimensional (4D; x–z and t) and two-dimensional (2D; z and t) results are compared for various parameterized pseudomomentum fluxes. In ray-tracing equations, refraction due to horizontal wind shear and curvature effects are found important and comparable to one another in magnitude. In the 4D, westward pseudomomentum fluxes are enhanced in the upper troposphere and northern stratosphere due to refraction and curvature effects around fluctuating jet flows. In the northern polar upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere, eastward pseudomomentum fluxes are increased in the 4D. GWs are found to propagate more to the upper atmosphere in the 4D, since horizontal propagation and change in wave numbers due to refraction and curvature effects can make it more possible that GWs elude critical level filtering and saturation in the lower atmosphere. GW focusing effects occur around jet cores, and ray-tube effects appear where the polar stratospheric jets vary substantially in space and time. Enhancement of the structure of zonal wavenumber 2 in pseudomomentum fluxes in the middle stratosphere begins from the early stage of the SSW evolution. An increase in pseudomomentum fluxes in the upper atmosphere is present even after the onset in the 4D. Significantly enhanced pseudomomentum fluxes, when the polar vortex is disturbed, are related to GWs with small intrinsic group velocity (wave capture), and they would change nonlocally nearby large-scale vortex structures without substantially changing local mean flows.

A new configuration of the Community Earth System Model (CESM)/Community Atmosphere Model with full chemistry (CAM-chem) supporting the capability of horizontal mesh refinement through the use of the spectral element (SE) dynamical core is developed and called CESM/CAM-chem-SE. Horizontal mesh refinement in CESM/CAM-chem-SE is unique and novel in that pollutants such as ozone are accurately represented at human exposure relevant scales while also directly including global feedbacks. CESM/CAM-chem-SE with mesh refinement down to ∼14 km over the conterminous US (CONUS) is the beginning of the Multi-Scale Infrastructure for Chemistry and Aerosols (MUSICAv0). Here, MUSICAv0 is evaluated and used to better understand how horizontal resolution and chemical complexity impact ozone and ozone precursors over CONUS as compared to measurements from five aircraft campaigns, which occurred in 2013. This field campaign analysis demonstrates the importance of using finer horizontal resolution to accurately simulate ozone precursors such as nitrogen oxides and carbon monoxide. In general, the impact of using more complex chemistry on ozone and other oxidation products is more pronounced when using finer horizontal resolution where a larger number of chemical regimes are resolved. Large model biases for ozone near the surface remain in the Southeast US as compared to the aircraft observations even with updated chemistry and finer horizontal resolution. This suggests a need for adding the capability of replacing sections of global emission inventories with regional inventories, increasing the vertical resolution in the planetary boundary layer, and reducing model biases in meteorological variables such as temperature and clouds.

The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 6 (WACCM6) is a major update of the whole atmosphere modeling capability in the Community Earth System Model (CESM), featuring enhanced physical, chemical and aerosol parameterizations. This work describes WACCM6 and some of the important features of the model. WACCM6 can reproduce many modes of variability and trends in the middle atmosphere, including the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation, Stratospheric Sudden Warmings and the evolution of Southern Hemisphere springtime ozone depletion over the 20th century. WACCM6 can also reproduce the climate and temperature trends of the 20th century throughout the atmospheric column. The representation of the climate has improved in WACCM6, relative to WACCM4. In addition, there are improvements in high latitude climate variability at the surface and sea ice extent in WACCM6 over the lower top version of the model (CAM6) that come from the extended vertical domain and expanded aerosol chemistry in WACCM6, highlighting the importance of the stratosphere and tropospheric chemistry for high latitude climate variability.

The Single Column Atmosphere Model (SCAM) is a single column model version of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Here we describe the functionality and features of SCAM6, available as part of CAM6 in the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2). SCAM6 features a wide selection of standard cases, as well as the ability to easily configure a case specified by the user based on a particular point in a CAM 3‐D simulation. This work illustrates how SCAM6 reproduces CAM6 results for physical parameterizations, mostly of moisture and clouds. We demonstrate how SCAM6 can be used for model development through different physics selections, as well as with parameter sweep experiments to highlight the sensitivity of cloud properties to the specification of the vapor deposition process in the cloud microphysics. Furthermore, we use SCAM6 to illustrate the sensitivity of CAM6 cloud radiative properties and precipitation to variable drop number (cloud microphysics properties). Finally, we illustrate how SCAM6 can be used to explore critical emergent processes such as cloud feedbacks and show that CAM6 cloud responses to surface warming in stratus and stratocumulus regimes are similar to those in CAM5. CAM6 has a larger response in the shallow cumulus regime than CAM5. CAM6 cloud feedbacks in the shallow cumulus regime are sensitive to turbulence parameters. SCAM6 is thus a valuable tool for model development, evaluation, and scientific analy sis and an important part of the model hierarchy in Community Earth System Model, version 2.

Atmospheric modeling with element-based high-order Galerkin methods presents a unique challenge to the conventional physics–dynamics coupling paradigm, due to the highly irregular distribution of nodes within an element and the distinct numerical characteristics of the Galerkin method. The conventional coupling procedure is to evaluate the physical parameterizations ( physics) on the dynamical core grid. Evaluating the physics at the nodal points exacerbates numerical noise from the Galerkin method, enabling and amplifying local extrema at element boundaries. Grid imprinting may be substantially reduced through the introduction of an entirely separate, approximately isotropic finite-volume grid for evaluating the physics forcing. Integration of the spectral basis over the control volumes provides an area-average state to the physics, which is more representative of the state in the vicinity of the nodal points rather than the nodal point itself and is more consistent with the notion of a “large-scale state” required by conventional physics packages. This study documents the implementation of a quasi-equal-area physics grid into NCAR’s Community Atmosphere Model Spectral Element and is shown to be effective at mitigating grid imprinting in the solution. The physics grid is also appropriate for coupling to other components within the Community Earth System Model, since the coupler requires component fluxes to be defined on a finite-volume grid, and one can be certain that the fluxes on the physics grid are, indeed, volume averaged.

This study examines the influence of prescribed and prognostic aerosol model configurations on the formation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Atlantic Ocean in Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). The impact of aerosol parameterization is examined by investigating storm track density, genesis density, potential intensity, and genesis potential index. This work shows that both CAM5 configurations simulate reduced storm frequency when compared to observations and that differences in TC climatology between the model configurations can be explained by differences in the large-scale environment. The analysis shows that simulation with the prognostic aerosol parameterization scheme reasonably captures the observed interannual variability in tropical cyclones and aerosols (i.e., dust) in the North Atlantic, while simulation with the prescribed configuration (climatology) is less favorable. The correlation between dust and TCs in observations (i.e., reanalysis and satellite datasets) is shown to be negative, and this relationship was also found for the prognostic aerosol configuration despite an overall decrease in the frequency of TCs. This indicates that, to accurately replicate certain aspects of TC interannual variability, the aerosol configuration within CAM5 needs to account for the appropriate dust variability.

Tropical gravity waves that are generated by convection are generally too small in scale and too high in frequency to be resolved in global climate models, yet their drag forces drive the important...

We present an unprecedented set of high‐resolution climate simulations, consisting of a 500‐year pre‐industrial control simulation and a 250‐year historical and future climate simulation from 1850 to 2100. A high‐resolution configuration of the Community Earth System Model version 1.3 (CESM1.3) is used for the simulations with a nominal horizontal resolution of 0.25° for the atmosphere and land models and 0.1° for the ocean and sea‐ice models. At these resolutions, the model permits tropical cyclones and ocean mesoscale eddies, allowing interactions between these synoptic and mesoscale phenomena with large‐scale circulations. An overview of the results from these simulations is provided with a focus on model drift, mean climate, internal modes of variability, representation of the historical and future climates, and extreme events. Comparisons are made to solutions from an identical set of simulations using the standard resolution (nominal 1°) CESM1.3 and to available observations for the historical period to address some key scientific questions concerning the impact and benefit of increasing model horizontal resolution in climate simulations. An emerging prominent feature of the high‐resolution pre‐industrial simulation is the intermittent occurrence of polynyas in the Weddell Sea and its interaction with an Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Overall, high‐resolution simulations show significant improvements in representing global mean temperature changes, seasonal cycle of sea‐surface temperature and mixed layer depth, extreme events and in relationships between extreme events and climate modes.

Simulations of 21st century climate with Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) using the standard atmosphere (CAM6), denoted CESM2(CAM6), and the latest generation of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM6), denoted CESM2(WACCM6), are presented, and a survey of general results is described. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of CESM2(CAM6) is 5.3°C, and CESM2(WACCM6) is 4.8°C, while the transient climate response (TCR) is 2.1°C in CESM2(CAM6) and 2.0°C in CESM2(WACCM6). Thus, these two CESM2 model versions have higher values of ECS than the previous generation of model, the CESM (CAM5) (hereafter CESM1), that had an ECS of 4.1°C, though the CESM2 versions have lower values of TCR compared to the CESM1 with a somewhat higher value of 2.3°C. All model versions produce credible simulations of the time evolution of historical global surface temperature. The higher ECS values for the CESM2 versions are reflected in higher values of global surface temperature increase by 2,100 in CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) compared to CESM1 between comparable emission scenarios for the high forcing scenario. Future warming among CESM2 model versions and scenarios diverges around 2050. The larger values of TCR and ECS in CESM2(CAM6) compared to CESM1 are manifested by greater warming in the tropics. Associated with a higher climate sensitivity, for CESM2(CAM6) the first instance of an ice‐free Arctic in September occurs for all scenarios and ensemble members in the 2030–2050 time frame, but about a decade later in CESM2(WACCM6), occurring around 2040–2060.

The Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2) is the latest Earth System Model developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research in collaboration with the university community and is significantly advanced in most components compared to its predecessor (CESM1). Here, CESM2's representation of the large‐scale atmospheric circulation and its variability is assessed. Further context is providedthrough comparison to the CESM1 large ensemble and other models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6). This includes an assessment of the representation of jet streams and storm tracks, stationary waves, the global divergent circulation, the annular modes, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and blocking. Compared to CESM1, CESM2 is substantially improved in the representation of the storm tracks, Northern Hemisphere (NH) stationary waves, NH winter blocking and the global divergent circulation. It ranks within the top 10% of CMIP class models in many of these features. Some features of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation have degraded, such as the SH jet strength, stationary waves, and blocking, although the SH jet stream is placed at approximately the correct location. This analysis also highlights systematic deficiencies in these features across the new CMIP6 archive, such as the continued tendency for the SH jet stream to be placed too far equatorward, the North Atlantic westerlies to be too strong over Europe, the storm tracks as measured by low‐level meridional wind variance to be too weak and a lack of blocking in the North Atlantic sector.

We examine the response of the Community Earth System Model versions 1 and 2 (CESM1 and CESM2) to abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric CO$_2$ concentrations (4xCO2) and to 1% annually increasing CO2 c...

Orographic gravity wave (OGW) drag is one of the fundamental physics parametrizations employed in every global numerical model across timescales from weather to climate. These parameterizations have significant influences, both direct and indirect, on the atmosphere’s general circulation from the troposphere at least through the mesosphere. Despite their significant influence, observational constraints on these parameterizations are still largely lacking.Presented here is a team project jointly supported by SPARC and the International Space Science Institute with the overall objective of providing new quantitative constraints for OGW drag parameterizations. Specific objectives are to evaluate methods that quantify vertical fluxes of horizontal momentum (MF) from satellite observations via an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE), a validation of WRF, UKMO, ECMWF, and ICON models against satellite and balloon observations, and an inter-comparison of OGW properties (e.g. MF and drag) within these models. Evaluation of satellite-based estimates of MF and model validation/inter-comparison will help to better quantify actual MF in the stratosphere, providing the best stratospheric MF and drag estimates for parameterizations to reproduce to date.Two unique aspects of the project are that all models involved are deep, extending up to 1 Pa. The motivations for doing so was to include entire instrument weighting functions for AIRS observations, allowing direct, quantitative comparison between AIRS (and other satellite-borne) observations and the models. The second is the effort to perform an OSSE within the simulations, allowing comparison between MF from satellite-based methods within the models to the true MF in the models.Preliminary results show that higher-res models (dx = 3 km) compare well and produce significantly more MF than lower-res global models, but the higher-res models still underrepresent OGW amplitudes. Mesospheric tides in analyses used to force the models significantly modulate resolved GWs and their drags.

An overview of the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) is provided, including a discussion of the challenges encountered during its development and how they were addressed. In addition, an evaluation of a pair of CESM2 long preindustrial control and historical ensemble simulations is presented. These simulations were performed using the nominal 1° horizontal resolution configuration of the coupled model with both the “low‐top” (40 km, with limited chemistry) and “high‐top” (130 km, with comprehensive chemistry) versions of the atmospheric component. CESM2 contains many substantial science and infrastructure improvements and new capabilities since its previous major release, CESM1, resulting in improved historical simulations in comparison to CESM1 and available observations. These include major reductions in low‐latitude precipitation and shortwave cloud forcing biases; better representation of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation; better El Niño‐Southern Oscillation‐related teleconnections; and a global land carbon accumulation trend that agrees well with observationally based estimates. Most tropospheric and surface features of the low‐ and high‐top simulations are very similar to each other, so these improvements are present in both configurations. CESM2 has an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 5.1–5.3 °C, larger than in CESM1, primarily due to a combination of relatively small changes to cloud microphysics and boundary layer parameters. In contrast, CESM2's transient climate response of 1.9–2.0 °C is comparable to that of CESM1. The model outputs from these and many other simulations are available to the research community, and they represent CESM2's contributions to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6.

We examine the response of the Community Earth System Model Versions 1 and 2 (CESM1 and CESM2) to abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations (4xCO2) and to 1% annually increasing CO2 concentrations (1%CO2). Different estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) for CESM1 and CESM2 are presented. All estimates show that the sensitivity of CESM2 has increased by 1.5 K or more over that of CESM1. At the same time the transient climate response (TCR) of CESM1 and CESM2 derived from 1%CO2 experiments has not changed significantly—2.1 K in CESM1 and 2.0 K in CESM2. Increased initial forcing as well as stronger shortwave radiation feedbacks are responsible for the increase in ECS seen in CESM2. A decomposition of regional radiation feedbacks and their contribution to global feedbacks shows that the Southern Ocean plays a key role in the overall behavior of 4xCO2 experiments, accounting for about 50% of the total shortwave feedback in both CESM1 and CESM2. The Southern Ocean is also responsible for around half of the increase in shortwave feedback between CESM1 and CESM2, with a comparable contribution arising over tropical ocean. Experiments using a thermodynamic slab‐ocean model (SOM) yield estimates of ECS that are in remarkable agreement with those from fully coupled Earth system model (ESM) experiments for the same level of CO2 increase. Finally, we show that the similarity of TCR in CESM1 and CESM2 masks significant regional differences in warming that occur in the 1%CO2 experiments for each model.

It is the purpose of this paper to provide a comprehensive documentation of the new NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) version of the spectral element (SE) dynamical core as part of the Community Earth System Model (CESM2.0) release. This version differs from previous releases of the SE dynamical core in several ways. Most notably the hybrid sigma vertical coordinate is based on dry air mass, the condensates are dynamically active in the thermodynamic and momentum equations (also referred to as condensate loading), and the continuous equations of motion conserve a more comprehensive total energy that includes condensates. Not related to the vertical coordinate change, the hyperviscosity operators and the vertical remapping algorithms have been modified. The code base has been significantly reduced, sped up, and cleaned up as part of integrating SE as a dynamical core in the CAM (Community Atmosphere Model) repository rather than importing the SE dynamical core from High‐Order Methods Modeling environment as an external code.

The spectral element (SE) variable‐resolution (VR) mesh dynamical core is tested in developmental versions of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). The SE dynamical core is tested in baroclinic wave, aquaplanet and full physics configurations to evaluate variable‐resolution simulations against uniform high and uniform low‐resolution simulations. Different physical parameterization suites are also evaluated to gauge their sensitivity to resolution. Dry dynamical core variable‐resolution cases compare well to high‐resolution tests. More recent versions of the atmospheric physics, including cloud schemes for CESM2, are less sensitive to changes in horizontal resolution. Most of the sensitivity is due to sensitivity to time step and interactions between deep convection and large‐scale condensation, which is expected from the closure methods. The resulting full physics SE‐VR model produces a similar climate to the global low‐resolution mesh and similar high‐frequency statistics in the high‐resolution region. The SE‐VR simulations are able to reproduce uniform high‐resolution results, making them an effective tool for regional climate simulations at lower computational cost. Some biases are reduced (orographic precipitation in Western United States), but biases do not necessarily go away at high resolution (e.g., summertime surface temperatures). Variable‐resolution grids are a viable alternative to traditional nesting for regional climate studies and are available in CESM2.

High-resolution climate model simulations and a tropical cyclone damage model are used to simulate the economic damage due to tropical cyclones. The damage model produces reasonable damage estimates compared to observations. The climate model produces realistically intense tropical cyclones over a historical simulation, with significant basin scale correlation of the inter-annual variability of cyclone numbers to observed storm numbers. However, the climate model produces too many moderate tropical cyclones, particularly in the N. Pacific. Annual mean cyclone damage with simulated storms is similar to estimates with the damage model and observed storms, and with actual economic losses. Ensembles of future simulations with different mitigation scenarios and different sea surface temperatures (SSTs), as well as societal changes, are used to assess future projections of cyclone damage. Damage estimates are highly dependent on the internal variability of the coupled system. Using different ensemble members or different SSTs affects damage results by ±40 %. Experiments indicate that despite decreases in storm numbers in the future, strong landfalling storms increase in E. Asia, increasing global storm damage by ∼50 % in 2070 over 2015. Little significant benefit is seen from mitigation, but only one ensemble is available. Projected increases in vulnerable assets increase damage from simulated storms by more than threefold (∼300 %, assuming no adaptation) indicating future growth will swamp potential changes in tropical cyclones.

Author(s): Rasch, PJ; Xie, S; Ma, PL; Lin, W; Wang, H; Tang, Q; Burrows, SM; Caldwell, P; Zhang, K; Easter, RC; Cameron-Smith, P; Singh, B; Wan, H; Golaz, JC; Harrop, BE; Roesler, E; Bacmeister, J; Larson, VE; Evans, KJ; Qian, Y; Taylor, M; Leung, LR; Zhang, Y; Brent, L; Branstetter, M; Hannay, C; Mahajan, S; Mametjanov, A; Neale, R; Richter, JH; Yoon, JH; Zender, CS; Bader, D; Flanner, M; Foucar, JG; Jacob, R; Keen, N; Klein, SA; Liu, X; Salinger, AG; Shrivastava, M; Yang, Y | Abstract: The Energy Exascale Earth System Model Atmosphere Model version 1, the atmospheric component of the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model is described. The model began as a fork of the well-known Community Atmosphere Model, but it has evolved in new ways, and coding, performance, resolution, physical processes (primarily cloud and aerosols formulations), testing and development procedures now differ significantly. Vertical resolution was increased (from 30 to 72 layers), and the model top extended to 60 km (~0.1 hPa). A simple ozone photochemistry predicts stratospheric ozone, and the model now supports increased and more realistic variability in the upper troposphere and stratosphere. An optional improved treatment of light-absorbing particle deposition to snowpack and ice is available, and stronger connections with Earth system biogeochemistry can be used for some science problems. Satellite and ground-based cloud and aerosol simulators were implemented to facilitate evaluation of clouds, aerosols, and aerosol-cloud interactions. Higher horizontal and vertical resolution, increased complexity, and more predicted and transported variables have increased the model computational cost and changed the simulations considerably. These changes required development of alternate strategies for tuning and evaluation as it was not feasible to “brute force” tune the high-resolution configurations, so short-term hindcasts, perturbed parameter ensemble simulations, and regionally refined simulations provided guidance on tuning and parameterization sensitivity to higher resolution. A brief overview of the model and model climate is provided. Model fidelity has generally improved compared to its predecessors and the CMIP5 generation of climate models.

Some of the largest and most persistent circulation errors in global numerical weather prediction and climate models are attributable to the inadequate representation of the impacts of orography on the atmospheric flow. Existing parametrization approaches attempting to account for unresolved orographic processes, such as turbulent form drag, low-level flow blocking or mountain waves, have been successful to some extent. They capture the basic impacts of the unresolved orography on atmospheric circulation in a qualitatively correct way and have led to significant progress in both numerical weather prediction and climate modelling. These approaches, however, have apparent limitations and inadequacies due to poor observational evidence, insufficient fundamental knowledge and an ambiguous separation between resolved and unresolved orographic scales and between different orographic processes. Numerical weather prediction and climate modelling has advanced to a stage where these inadequacies have become critical and hamper progress by limiting predictive skill on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. More physically based approaches are needed to quantify the relative importance of apparently disparate orographic processes and to account for their combined effects in a rational and accurate way in numerical models. We argue that, thanks to recent advances, significant progress can be made by combining theoretical approaches with observations, inverse modelling techniques and high-resolution and idealized numerical simulations.

Climate models at high resolution (~25 km horizontal grid spacing) can permit realistic simulations of tropical cyclones (TCs), thus promising the investigation of these high-impact extreme events ...

This study examines how characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) that are explicitly resolved in a global atmospheric model with horizontal resolution of approximately 28 km are projected to change in a warmer climate using bias-corrected sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). The impact of mitigating from RCP8.5 to RCP4.5 is explicitly considered and is compared with uncertainties arising from SST projections. We find a reduction in overall global TC activity as climate warms. This reduction is somewhat less pronounced under RCP4.5 than under RCP8.5. By contrast, the frequency of very intense TCs is projected to increase dramatically in a warmer climate, with most of the increase concentrated in the NW Pacific basin. Extremes of storm related precipitation are also projected to become more common. Reduction in the frequency of extreme precipitation events is possible through mitigation from RCP8.5 to RCP4.5. In general more detailed basin-scale projections of future TC activity are subject to large uncertainties due to uncertainties in future SSTs. In most cases these uncertainties are larger than the effects of mitigating from RCP8.5 to RCP4.5.

This paper discusses the sensitivity of tropical cyclone climatology to surface coupling strategy in high-resolution configurations of the Community Earth System Model. Using two supported model setups, we demonstrate that the choice of grid on which the lowest model level wind stress and surface fluxes are computed may lead to differences in cyclone strength in multi-decadal climate simulations, particularly for the most intense cyclones. Using a deterministic framework, we show that when these surface quantities are calculated on an ocean grid that is coarser than the atmosphere, the computed frictional stress is misaligned with wind vectors in individual atmospheric grid cells. This reduces the effective surface drag, and results in more intense cyclones when compared to a model configuration where the ocean and atmosphere are of equivalent resolution. Our results demonstrate that the choice of computation grid for atmosphere–ocean interactions is non-negligible when considering climate extremes at high horizontal resolution, especially when model components are on highly disparate grids.

It is the purpose of this paper to document the NCAR global model topography generation software for unstructured grids (NCAR_Topo (v1.0)). Given a model grid, the software computes the fraction of the grid box covered by land, the grid-box mean elevation (deviation from a geoid that defines nominal sea level surface), and associated sub-grid-scale variances commonly used for gravity wave and turbulent mountain stress parameterizations. The software supports regular latitude–longitude grids as well as unstructured grids, e.g., icosahedral, Voronoi, cubed-sphere and variable-resolution grids.

The four idealized configurations of the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group are integrated using the global Community Atmospheric Model version 5.1 at two different horizontal resolutions, approximately 100 and 25 km. The publicly released 0.9° × 1.3° configuration is a poor predictor of the sign of the 0.23° × 0.31° model configuration’s change in the total number of tropical storms in a warmer climate. However, it does predict the sign of the higher-resolution configuration’s change in the number of intense tropical cyclones in a warmer climate. In the 0.23° × 0.31° model configuration, both increased CO2 concentrations and elevated sea surface temperature (SST) independently lower the number of weak tropical storms and shorten their average duration. Conversely, increased SST causes more intense tropical cyclones and lengthens their average duration, resulting in a greater number of intense tropical cyclone days globally. Increased SST also increased maximum tropical storm instantaneous precipitation rates across all storm intensities. It was found that while a measure of maximum potential intensity based on climatological mean quantities adequately predicts the 0.23° × 0.31° model’s forced response in its most intense simulated tropical cyclones, a related measure of cyclogenesis potential fails to predict the model’s actual cyclogenesis response to warmer SSTs. These analyses lead to two broader conclusions: 1) Projections of future tropical storm activity obtained by a direct tracking of tropical storms simulated by coarse-resolution climate models must be interpreted with caution. 2) Projections of future tropical cyclogenesis obtained from metrics of model behavior that are based solely on changes in long-term climatological fields and tuned to historical records must also be interpreted with caution.

In the continued effort to understand the climate system and improve its representation in atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs), it is crucial to develop reduced-complexity frameworks to evaluate these models. This is especially true as the AGCM community advances toward high horizontal resolutions (i.e., grid spacing less than 50 km), which will require interpreting and improving the performance of many model components. A simplified global radiative–convective equilibrium (RCE) configuration is proposed to explore the implication of horizontal resolution on equilibrium climate. RCE is the statistical equilibrium in which the radiative cooling of the atmosphere is balanced by heating due to convection. In this work, the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5), is configured in RCE to better understand tropical climate and extremes. The RCE setup consists of an ocean-covered Earth with diurnally varying, spatially uniform insolation and no rotation effects. CAM5 is run at two horizontal resolutions: a standard resolution of approximately 100-km grid spacing and a high resolution of approximately 25-km spacing. Surface temperature effects are considered by comparing simulations using fixed, uniform sea surface temperature with simulations using an interactive slab-ocean model. The various CAM5 configurations provide useful insights into the simulation of tropical climate as well as the model’s ability to simulate extreme precipitation events. In particular, the manner in which convection organizes is shown to be dependent on model resolution and the surface configuration (including surface temperature), as evident by differences in cloud structure, circulation, and precipitation intensity.

The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications-2 (MERRA2) version of the Goddard Earth Observing System-5 (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) is currently in use in the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at a wide range of resolutions for a variety of applications. Details of the changes in parameterizations subsequent to the version in the original MERRA reanalysis are presented here. Results of a series of atmosphere-only sensitivity studies are shown to demonstrate changes in simulated climate associated with specific changes in physical parameterizations, and the impact of the newly implemented resolution-aware behavior on simulations at different resolutions is demonstrated. The GEOS-5 AGCM presented here is the model used as part of the GMAO MERRA2 reanalysis, global mesoscale simulations at 10 km resolution through 1.5 km resolution, the real-time numerical weather prediction system, and for atmosphere-only, coupled ocean-atmosphere and coupled atmosphere-chemistry simulations. The seasonal mean climate of the MERRA2 version of the GEOS-5 AGCM represents a substantial improvement over the simulated climate of the MERRA version at all resolutions and for all applications. Fundamental improvements in simulated climate are associated with the increased re-evaporation of frozen precipitation and cloud condensate, resulting in a wetter atmosphere. Improvements in simulated climate are also shown to be attributable to changes in the background gravity wave drag, and to upgrades in the relationship between the ocean surface stress and the ocean roughness. The series of resolution-aware parameters related to the moist physics was shown to result in improvements at higher resolutions and result in AGCM simulations that exhibit seamless behavior across different resolutions and applications.

We present new insights into the evolution and interactions of stratospheric aerosol using an updated version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). Improved horizontal resolution, dynamics, and chemistry now produce an internally generated quasi-biennial oscillation and significant improvements to stratospheric temperatures and ozone compared to observations. We present a validation of WACCM column ozone and climate calculations against observations. The prognostic treatment of stratospheric sulfate aerosols accurately represents the evolution of stratospheric aerosol optical depth and perturbations to solar and longwave radiation following the June 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo. We confirm the inclusion of interactive OH chemistry as an important factor in the formation and initial distribution of aerosol following large inputs of sulfur dioxide (SO_2) to the stratosphere. We calculate that depletion of OH levels within the dense SO_2 cloud in the first weeks following the Pinatubo eruption significantly prolonged the average initial e-folding decay time for SO_2 oxidation to 47 days. Previous observational and model studies showing a 30 day decay time have not accounted for the large (30–55%) losses of SO_2 on ash and ice within 7–9 days posteruption and have not correctly accounted for OH depletion. We examine the variability of aerosol evolution in free-running climate simulations due to meteorology, with comparison to simulations nudged with specified dynamics. We assess calculated impacts of volcanic aerosols on ozone loss with comparisons to observations. The completeness of the chemistry, dynamics, and aerosol microphysics in WACCM qualify it for studies of stratospheric sulfate aerosol geoengineering.

High-resolution global climate modeling holds the promise of capturing planetary-scale climate modes and small-scale (regional and sometimes extreme) features simultaneously, including their mutual interaction. This paper discusses a new state-of-the-art high-resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulation that was performed with these goals in mind. The atmospheric component was at 0.25 grid spacing, and ocean component at 0.1. One hundred years of ''present-day'' simulation were com- pleted. Major results were that annual mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific and El- Ni~ no Southern Oscillation variability were well simulated compared to standard resolution models. Tropical and southern Atlantic SST also had much reduced bias compared to previous versions of the model. In addi- tion, the high resolution of the model enabled small-scale features of the climate system to be represented, such as air-sea interaction over ocean frontal zones, mesoscale systems generated by the Rockies, and Trop- ical Cyclones. Associated single component runs and standard resolution coupled runs are used to help attribute the strengths and weaknesses of the fully coupled run. The high-resolution run employed 23,404 cores, costing 250 thousand processor-hours per simulated year and made about two simulated years per day on the NCAR-Wyoming supercomputer ''Yellowstone.''

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is the dominant mode of variability in the tropical stratosphere, which is in large part driven by upward propagating atmospheric waves. For over three decades researchers have investigated an extratropical impact due to the vacillation of the tropical winds. The choice of a single altitude to define the QBO introduces an ambiguity into the analysis of correlations between the tropical and extratropical manifestations of this wave-driven phenomenon. It has been previously demonstrated that using empirical orthogonal functions, this ambiguity can be resolved, by calculating the phase of the QBO from the first two principal components of the stratospheric zonal mean wind. As general circulation models begin to simulate the QBO, a standard and objective means of comparing simulations with observations should be adopted. This objective analysis of the extratropical QBO is presented for the ERA-Interim reanalysis and a version of the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5, which exhibits a spontaneously generated QBO.

This work presents the development of a two-moment cloud microphysics scheme within the version 5 of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5). The scheme includes the implementation of a comprehensive stratiform microphysics module, a new cloud coverage scheme that allows ice supersaturation and a new microphysics module embedded within the moist convection parameterization of GEOS-5. Comprehensive physically-based descriptions of ice nucleation, including homogeneous and heterogeneous freezing, and liquid droplet activation are implemented to describe the formation of cloud particles in stratiform clouds and convective cumulus. The effect of preexisting ice crystals on the formation of cirrus clouds is also accounted for. A new parameterization of the subgrid scale vertical velocity distribution accounting for turbulence and gravity wave motion is developed. The implementation of the new microphysics significantly improves the representation of liquid water and ice in GEOS-5. Evaluation of the model shows agreement of the simulated droplet and ice crystal effective and volumetric radius with satellite retrievals and in situ observations. The simulated global distribution of supersaturation is also in agreement with observations. It was found that when using the new microphysics the fraction of condensate that remains as liquid follows a sigmoidal increase with temperature which differs from the linear increase assumed in most models and is in better agreement with available observations. The performance of the new microphysics in reproducing the observed total cloud fraction, longwave and shortwave cloud forcing, and total precipitation is similar to the operational version of GEOS-5 and in agreement with satellite retrievals. However the new microphysics tends to underestimate the coverage of persistent low level stratocumulus. Sensitivity studies showed that the simulated cloud properties are robust to moderate variation in cloud microphysical parameters. However significant sensitivity in ice cloud properties was found to variation in the dispersion of the ice crystal size distribution and the critical size for ice autoconversion. The implementation of the new microphysics leads to a more realistic representation of cloud processes in GEOS-5 and allows the linkage of cloud properties to aerosol emissions.

Horizontal resolution of general circulation models (GCMs) has significantly increased during the last decade, however these changes were not accompanied by similar changes in vertical resolution. In our study, the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5) is used to study the sensitivity of climate to vertical resolution and nonorographic gravity wave drag. Nonorographic gravity wave drag is typically omitted from low-top GCMs, however as we show, its influence on climate can be seen all the way to the surface. We show that an increase in vertical resolution from 1200 to 500 m in the free troposphere and lower stratosphere in CAM5 improves the representation of near-tropopause temperatures, lower stratospheric temperatures, and surface wind stresses. In combination with nonorographic gravity waves, CAM5 with increased vertical resolution produces a realistic Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), has an improved seasonal cycle of temperature in the extratropics, and represents better the coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere.

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the tropical zonal mean wind is a prominent feature of the tropical stratosphere. The easterly and westerly wind regimes alternate with a period of about 28 months. The QBO is believed to be forced by a combination of equatorial waves, in particular, Kelvin and mixed Rossby-gravity waves, as well as smaller-scale gravity waves. Although the QBO is well observed and basic forcing mechanism well understood, it has been a challenge to simulate in General Circulation Models (GCMs). In this paper we examine the role of vertical resolution and gravity wave parameterization on the simulation of the QBO in the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5. We show that in this model vertical resolution of 500 m and adequate gravity wave drag are needed to obtain a realistic QBO. At 500 m vertical resolution, CAM5 generates significantly more mixed Rossby-gravity and Kelvin waves as compared to CAM5 with 700 m or 1200 m vertical resolution. These waves then contribute to the forcing of the easterly and westerly phases of the QBO, respectively. In this work, we also briefly explore the effects of horizontal resolution on the QBO and conclude that the QBO can be adequately represented with horizontal resolution of ∼200 km as long as vertical resolution of the model is fine enough.

CGILS—the CFMIP-GASS Intercomparison of Large Eddy Models (LESs) and single column models (SCMs)—investigates the mechanisms of cloud feedback in SCMs and LESs under idealized climate change perturbation. This paper describes the CGILS results from 15 SCMs and 8 LES models. Three cloud regimes over the subtropical oceans are studied: shallow cumulus, cumulus under stratocumulus, and well-mixed coastal stratus/stratocumulus. In the stratocumulus and coastal stratus regimes, SCMs without activated shallow convection generally simulated negative cloud feedbacks, while models with active shallow convection generally simulated positive cloud feedbacks. In the shallow cumulus alone regime, this relationship is less clear, likely due to the changes in cloud depth, lateral mixing, and precipitation or a combination of them. The majority of LES models simulated negative cloud feedback in the well-mixed coastal stratus/stratocumulus regime, and positive feedback in the shallow cumulus and stratocumulus regime. A general framework is provided to interpret SCM results: in a warmer climate, the moistening rate of the cloudy layer associated with the surface-based turbulence parameterization is enhanced; together with weaker large-scale subsidence, it causes negative cloud feedback. In contrast, in the warmer climate, the drying rate associated with the shallow convection scheme is enhanced. This causes positive cloud feedback. These mechanisms are summarized as the “NESTS” negative cloud feedback and the “SCOPE” positive cloud feedback (Negative feedback from Surface Turbulence under weaker Subsidence—Shallow Convection PositivE feedback) with the net cloud feedback depending on how the two opposing effects counteract each other. The LES results are consistent with these interpretations.

A recently developed object identification algorithm is applied to multisensor precipitation estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM 3B42) to detect and quantify the contribution of tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP) to total precipitation between 1998 and 2008. The study period includes 1144 storms. Estimates of TCP derived here are similar in pattern and seasonal variation to earlier estimates but are somewhat higher in magnitude. Annual-mean TCP fractions of over 20% are diagnosed over large swaths of tropical ocean, with seasonal means in some regions of more than 50%. Interannual variability of TCP is examined, and a small but significant downward trend in global TCP from 1998 to 2008 is found, consistent with results from independent studies examining accumulated cyclone energy (ACE). Relationships between annual-mean ACE and TCP in each major tropical cyclone basin are examined. High correlations are found in almost every basin, although different linear relationships exist in each. The highest ACE/TCP ratios are obtained in the North Atlantic and northeast Pacific basins, with lower ratios present in the northwest Pacific and South Pacific basins.

The Modern-Era Reanalysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) is realistic, including its Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), which the underlying model [Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5)] lacks. In the MERRA budgets, analysis tendencies (ATs) make evolution realistic despite model shortcomings. The ATs are the negative of physical process errors, if dynamical tendencies are accurate. Pattern resemblances between ATs and physical tendencies suggest which processes are erroneous. The authors examined patterns of tropical ATs in four dimensions and found several noteworthy features. Temperature AT profiles show that moist physics has erroneous sharp cooling at 700 hPa, a signature of misplaced melting and perhaps excessive precipitation evaporation. This excites a distinctive (fingerprint) erroneous short vertical wavelength temperature structure, perhaps a cause of the GEOS-5 too-slow convectively coupled waves. The globe’s largest AT of 200-hPa wind stems from overactive heating over the intra-Americas seas region in summer, with the same moist physics fingerprint. The erroneous heating produces a baroclinic vortex that is countered by ATs opposing its temperature and momentum fields in a thermal wind balanced sense. Lack of restraint in the deep convection scheme is also indicated in MJO composites, where the water vapor AT is anomalously positive on the leading edge, indicating a premature vapor sink. Since GEOS-5 lacks an MJO, this diagnosis suggests that the transition from shallow to deep convection (moistening to drying) is crucial in the real-world MJO. This is not news, but its diagnosis by ATs provides an objective, repeatable way to measure the effect that could be a useful guide in model development.

The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) was undertaken by NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office with two primary objectives: to place observations from NASA’s Earth Observing System satellites into a climate context and to improve upon the hydrologic cycle represented in earlier generations of reanalyses. Focusing on the satellite era, from 1979 to the present, MERRA has achieved its goals with significant improvements in precipitation and water vapor climatology. Here, a brief overview of the system and some aspects of its performance, including quality assessment diagnostics from innovation and residual statistics, is given. By comparing MERRA with other updated reanalyses [the interim version of the next ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) and the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR)], advances made in this new generation of reanalyses, as well as remaining deficiencies, are identified. Although there is little difference between the new reanalyses in many aspects of climate variability, substantial differences remain in poorly constrained quantities such as precipitation and surface fluxes. These differences, due to variations both in the models and in the analysis techniques, are an important measure of the uncertainty in reanalysis products. It is also found that all reanalyses are still quite sensitive to observing system changes. Dealing with this sensitivity remains the most pressing challenge for the next generation of reanalyses. Production has now caught up to the current period and MERRA is being continued as a near-real-time climate analysis. The output is available online through the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC).