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Introduction Dementia is a progressive and debilitating disease, and people living with HIV (PLWH) often develop dementia much earlier than those not living with HIV. We estimated the incidence and prevalence of dementia and identified its key risk factors in a cohort of PLWH in British Columbia, Canada.Methods This retrospective cohort study used data from the Seek and Treat for Optimal Prevention of HIV/AIDS study. Eligible individuals were diagnosed with HIV, ≥40 years of age, naïve to antiretroviral therapy (ART), had no dementia at the index date and were followed for ≥1 year during 2002–2016. Our main outcome was incident dementia. We examined the effect of sociodemographic and clinical covariates on the incidence of dementia using a cause-specific hazard (CSH) model, with all-cause mortality as a competing risk event.Results Among 5121 eligible PLWH, 108 (2%) developed dementia. The crude 15-year prevalence of dementia was 2.1%, and the age–sex standardised incidence rate of dementia was 4.3 (95% CI: 4.2 to 4.4) per 1000 person-years. Among the adjusted covariates, CD4 cell count

Objectives Non-adherence to antipsychotics is the greatest obstacle to treating schizophrenia. We assessed the economic and clinical impacts of adherence to antipsychotics among people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWH) and schizophrenia in British Columbia, Canada.Design and setting A population-based cohort study in British Columbia, Canada.Methods Eligible PLWH were enrolled in the Seek and Treat for Optimal Prevention HIV/AIDS population-based cohort during 2001–2016, diagnosed with schizophrenia, on antipsychotics for ≥1 day, and followed for ≥1 year from schizophrenia diagnosis date or 1 January 2001, whichever occurred last.Primary and secondary outcome measures A two-part model assessed the marginal effect of adherence on healthcare costs (in 2016 Canadian dollar), while logistic regression examined the effect on virological failure, and generalised linear mixed models examined the effect on hospital readmissions within 30 days and length of hospital stay.Results Among 726 PLWH with schizophrenia, ≥80% adherence to antipsychotics increased from 25% (50/198) in 2001 to 41% (225/554) in 2016. In most years, we observed no difference in adherence to antipsychotics among those who used only injectables, only non-injectables, and a combination of both, or among those who have ever consumed typical/first-generation antipsychotics and who consumed only atypical/second-generation antipsychotics. Overall healthcare costs were higher in the non-adherent group ($C2185), driven by the average annual hospitalisation costs ($C5517), particularly among women ($C8806) and people who ever injected drugs (PWID) ($C5985). Non-adherent individuals also experienced higher hospital readmissions (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.48, 95% CI 1.23 to 1.77), and longer hospital stays (adjusted mean ratio 1.23, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.35) in comparison to adherent individuals. We found no difference in virological failure by adherence groups, except when we stratified by gender where the aOR for women was 2.48 (95% CI 1.06 to 5.82).Conclusions Our results showed that implementing strategies and interventions to increase antipsychotic adherence, particularly among women and PWID, will be critical in addressing this public health challenge.

IntroductionCase-finding algorithms can be applied to administrative healthcare records to identify people with diseases, including people with HIV (PWH). When supplementing an existing registry of a low prevalence disease, near-perfect specificity helps minimize impacts of adding in algorithm-identified false positive cases. We evaluated the performance of algorithms applied to healthcare records to supplement an HIV registry in British Columbia (BC), Canada.MethodsWe applied algorithms based on HIV-related diagnostic codes to healthcare practitioner and hospitalization records. We evaluated 28 algorithms in a validation sub-sample of 7,124 persons with positive HIV tests (2,817 with a prior negative test) from the STOP HIV/AIDS data linkage-a linkage of healthcare, clinical, and HIV test records for PWH in BC, resembling a disease registry (1996-2020). Algorithms were primarily assessed based on their specificity-derived from this validation sub-sample-and their impact on the estimate of the total number of PWH in BC as of 2020.ResultsIn the validation sub-sample, median age at positive HIV test was 37 years (Q1: 30, Q3: 46), 80.1% were men, and 48.9% resided in the Vancouver Coastal Health Authority. For all algorithms, specificity exceeded 97% and sensitivity ranged from 81% to 95%. To supplement the HIV registry, we selected an algorithm with 99.89% (95% CI: 99.76% - 100.00%) specificity and 82.21% (95% CI: 81.26% - 83.16%) sensitivity, requiring five HIV-related healthcare practitioner encounters or two HIV-related hospitalizations within a 12-month window, or one hospitalization with HIV as the most responsible diagnosis. Upon adding PWH identified by this highly-specific algorithm to the registry, 8,774 PWH were present in BC as of March 2020, of whom 333 (3.8%) were algorithm-identified.DiscussionIn the context of an existing low prevalence disease registry, the results of our validation study demonstrate the value of highly-specific case-finding algorithms applied to administrative healthcare records to enhance our ability to estimate the number of PWH living in BC.

In 2018, the pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) program was initiated in British Columbia (BC), Canada, providing PrEP at no cost to qualifying residents. This observational study discussed the steps to develop key evidence-based monitoring indicators and their calculation using real-time data. The indicators were conceptualized, developed, assessed and approved by the Technical Monitoring Committee of representatives from five health authority regions in BC, the BC Ministry of Health, the BC Centre for Disease Control, and the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS. Indicator development followed the steps adopted from the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention framework for program evaluation in public health. The assessment involved eight selection criteria: data quality, indicator validity, existing scientific evidence, indicator informativeness, indicator computing feasibility, clients' confidentiality maintenance capacity, indicator accuracy, and administrative considerations. Clients' data from the provincial-wide PrEP program (January 2018-December 2020) shows the indicators' calculation. The finalized 14 indicators included gender, age, health authority, new clients enrolled by provider type and by the health authority, new clients dispensed PrEP, clients per provider, key qualifying HIV risk factor(s), client status, PrEP usage type, PrEP quantity dispensed, syphilis and HIV testing and incident cases, and adverse drug reaction events. Cumulative clients' data (n = 6966; 99% cis-gender males) identified an increased new client enrollment and an unexpected drop during the COVID-19 pandemic. About 80% dispensed PrEP from the Vancouver Coastal health authority. The HIV incidence risk index for men who have sex with men score ≥10 was the most common qualifying risk factor. The framework we developed integrating indicators was applied to monitor our PrEP program, which could help reduce the public health impact of HIV.

Life span of people living with HIV (PLWH) has increased dramatically with the advent of modern antiretroviral therapy. As a result, comorbidities have emerged as a significant concern in this population. To describe the burden of chronic comorbidities among PLWH and HIV-negative individuals in British Columbia (BC), Canada, we estimated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) related to these comorbidities. Based on a population-based cohort in BC, antiretroviral-treated adult PLWH and 1:4 age-sex-matched HIV-negative controls were followed for ≥1 year during 2001-2012. DALYs combined years of life lost to premature mortality (YLLs) and due to disability (YLDs), and were estimated following the Global Burden of Diseases' approaches. DALYs associated with non-AIDS-defining cancers, diabetes, osteoarthritis, hypertension, dementia, cardiovascular (CVD), kidney, liver and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases were each measured for 2008-2012. Among PLWH, DALYs attributed to non-AIDS-related cancers were also estimated for 2013-2020. We observed that at baseline, our matched cohort consisted of 82% males with a median age of 40 years (25th-75th percentiles: 34-47). During 2008-2012, 7042 PLWH and 30,640 HIV-negative individuals were alive, where PLWH experienced a twofold higher DALYs associated with chronic comorbidities (770.2 years/1000 people [95% credible intervals: 710.2, 831.6] vs. 359.0 [336.0, 382.2]). Non-AIDS-defining cancers and CVD contributed the highest DALYs in both populations, driven by YLLs rather than YLDs. Among PLWH, we estimated increasing DALYs attributable to non-AIDS-defining cancers with 91.7 years/1000 people (77.4, 106.0) in 2013 vs. 97.6 (81.0, 115.2) in 2020. In this study, we showed that PLWH experience a disproportionate burden of chronic comorbidities compared to HIV-negative individuals. The observed disparities may relate to differential health behaviors, residual HIV-related inflammation, and ART-related toxicities. As aging shapes future healthcare needs, our findings highlight the need to enhance prevention and management of comorbidities as part of HIV care.

BackgroundHepatitis C virus (HCV) education may be changing following the simplification of HCV treatment and emergence of direct acting antiviral (DAA). We aimed to characterize HCV knowledge among people who recently completed DAA therapy.MethodsThe Per-SVR (Preservation of Sustained Virologic Response) is a prospective cohort of patients who achieved a sustained virologic response upon successful completion of DAA therapy. The per-SVR study provided the sampling frame of participants who completed a psychometrically validated 19-item HCV knowledge scale at cohort entry (n = 227). To score the questionnaire, for each correct response one point was awarded, with no point for incorrect response. We assessed mean HCV knowledge score in the overall sample and mutually exclusive populations: people who inject drug (PWID) (n = 71); people with co-occurring HIV (n = 23); PWID and co-occurring HIV (n = 29), and others (n = 104) Using a latent class analysis based on distal outcome, we identified unobserved subgroups and assessed HCV knowledge amongst them.ResultsTotal mean (SD) percent of correct responses were 83 (11) in the overall sample; 83 (10) in PWID; 79 (12) in people with co-occurring HIV; 81 (10) in PWID and co-occurring HIV, and 84 (11) in rest of the sample Three latent groups were identified: baby boomers who ever experienced homelessness (n = 126); women sex workers who ever experienced homelessness (n = 68); men who inject drug, ever experienced homelessness and had ever diagnosis of mental health disorders (n = 18). Mean percent of correct responses were 85 (8), 82 (11), 85 (10), in latent class 1, 2, and 3, respectively.ConclusionPatients successfully treated with DAAs had a high HCV knowledge. High knowledge and awareness of reinfection among complex patient groups often facing barriers to HCV care is encouraging and emphasizes the positive outcomes of universal access to treatment.

IntroductionSeveral methods have been proposed to estimate the time of HIV seroconversion, including those based on CD4 cell depletion models. However, previous models have failed to consider the heterogeneity that exists in CD4 trajectories among different sub-populations. Our objective was to estimate the time from HIV seroconversion relative to the HIV diagnosis date in a population-based cohort of people living with HIV (PLWH) in the province of British Columbia, Canada.MethodsWe used linked administrative and clinical data from the British Columbia Seek and Treat for Optimal Prevention of HIV/AIDS (STOP HIV/AIDS) cohort, which contains longitudinal individual-level data on all PLWH ever diagnosed in the province. Eligible participants were aged ≥18 years and diagnosed with HIV between 1989 and 2013. The outcome was pre-antiretroviral treatment CD4 cell count measurements assessed every six months. Models were stratified by age and stage of HIV infection at diagnosis. Several explanatory variables were considered including longitudinal viral load measurements. Longitudinal CD4, square root transformed, was modeled via a non-linear mixed effects model; time was modeled using an exponential decay function. We assumed a Gaussian distribution (identity link), an AR(1) correlation structure, and a random intercept and slope for the longitudinal viral load measurements. Due to the population variation in CD4 count among uninfected individuals, we assumed 500 to 1500 cells/mm3 as the normal range when estimating the time of HIV seroconversion.ResultsLongitudinal data on 1,253 individuals were analysed: 80% male, 33% White, and the median age at diagnosis was 38 years (25th-75th percentile [Q1-Q3], 31 to 45). CD4 decay differed by stage of infection at diagnosis and age, with those ≥50 years in Stages 1 and 2 experiencing a faster decline in CD4 over time. The median duration of infection from seroconversion until HIV diagnosis was 6.9 (Q1-Q3, 3.9 to 10.1) years.ConclusionsConsidering the heterogeneity that exists in individual CD4 cell trajectories in a population, we presented a methodology that only relies on routinely collected HIV-related data, which can be further extended to estimate other epidemic measures.

Objectives As people living with HIV (PLWH) live longer, morbidity and mortality from non-AIDS comorbidities have emerged as major concerns. Our objective was to compare prevalence trends and age at diagnosis of nine chronic age-associated comorbidities between individuals living with and without HIV.Design and setting This population-based cohort study used longitudinal cohort data from all diagnosed antiretroviral-treated PLWH and 1:4 age-sex-matched HIV-negative individuals in British Columbia, Canada.Participants The study included 8031 antiretroviral-treated PLWH and 32 124 HIV-negative controls (median age 40 years, 82% men). Eligible participants were ≥19 years old and followed for ≥1 year during 2000 to 2012.Primary and secondary outcome measures The presence of non-AIDS-defining cancers, diabetes, osteoarthritis, hypertension, Alzheimer’s and/or non-HIV-related dementia, cardiovascular, kidney, liver and lung diseases were identified from provincial administrative databases. Beta regression assessed annual age-sex-standardised prevalence trends and Kruskal-Wallis tests compared the age at diagnosis of comorbidities stratified by rate of healthcare encounters.Results Across study period, the prevalence of all chronic age-associated comorbidities, except hypertension, were higher among PLWH compared with their community-based HIV-negative counterparts; as much as 10 times higher for liver diseases (25.3% vs 2.1%, p value

BACKGROUND:The "trimorbidity" of substance use disorder and mental and physical illness is associated with living in precarious housing or homelessness. The extent to which substance use increases risk of psychosis and both contribute to mortality needs investigation in longitudinal studies. METHODS AND FINDINGS:A community-based sample of 437 adults (330 men, mean [SD] age 40.6 [11.2] years) living in Vancouver, Canada, completed baseline assessments between November 2008 and October 2015. Follow-up was monthly for a median 6.3 years (interquartile range 3.1-8.6). Use of tobacco, alcohol, cannabis, cocaine, methamphetamine, and opioids was assessed by interview and urine drug screen; severity of psychosis was also assessed. Mortality (up to November 15, 2018) was assessed from coroner's reports and hospital records. Using data from monthly visits (mean 9.8, SD 3.6) over the first year after study entry, mixed-effects logistic regression analysis examined relationships between risk factors and psychotic features. A past history of psychotic disorder was common (60.9%). Nonprescribed substance use included tobacco (89.0%), alcohol (77.5%), cocaine (73.2%), cannabis (72.8%), opioids (51.0%), and methamphetamine (46.5%). During the same year, 79.3% of participants reported psychotic features at least once. Greater risk was associated with number of days using methamphetamine (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05-1.24, p = 0.001), alcohol (aOR 1.09, 95% CI 1.01-1.18, p = 0.04), and cannabis (aOR 1.08, 95% CI 1.02-1.14, p = 0.008), adjusted for demographic factors and history of past psychotic disorder. Greater exposure to concurrent month trauma was associated with increased odds of psychosis (adjusted model aOR 1.54, 95% CI 1.19-2.00, p = 0.001). There was no evidence for interactions or reverse associations between psychotic features and time-varying risk factors. During 2,481 total person years of observation, 79 participants died (18.1%). Causes of death were physical illness (40.5%), accidental overdose (35.4%), trauma (5.1%), suicide (1.3%), and unknown (17.7%). A multivariable Cox proportional hazard model indicated baseline alcohol dependence (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.83, 95% CI 1.09-3.07, p = 0.02), and evidence of hepatic fibrosis (aHR 1.81, 95% CI 1.08-3.03, p = 0.02) were risk factors for mortality. Among those under age 55 years, a history of a psychotic disorder was a risk factor for mortality (aHR 2.38, 95% CI 1.03-5.51, p = 0.04, adjusted for alcohol dependence at baseline, human immunodeficiency virus [HIV], and hepatic fibrosis). The primary study limitation concerns generalizability: conclusions from a community-based, diagnostically heterogeneous sample may not apply to specific diagnostic groups in a clinical setting. Because one-third of participants grew up in foster care or were adopted, useful family history information was not obtainable. CONCLUSIONS:In this study, we found methamphetamine, alcohol, and cannabis use were associated with higher risk for psychotic features, as were a past history of psychotic disorder, and experiencing traumatic events. We found that alcohol dependence, hepatic fibrosis, and, only among participants

Objective Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is one of the leading non-AIDS-defining causes of death among HIV-positive (HIV+) individuals. However, the evidence surrounding specific components of CVD risk remains inconclusive. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to synthesise the available evidence and establish the risk of myocardial infarction (MI) among HIV+ compared with uninfected individuals. We also examined MI risk within subgroups of HIV+ individuals according to exposure to combination antiretroviral therapy (ART), ART class/regimen, CD4 cell count and plasma viral load (pVL) levels.Design Systematic review and meta-analysis.Data sources We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews until 18 July 2018. Furthermore, we scanned recent HIV conference abstracts (CROI, IAS/AIDS) and bibliographies of relevant articles.Eligibility criteria Original studies published after December 1999 and reporting comparative data relating to the rate of MI among HIV+ individuals were included.Data extraction and synthesis Two reviewers working in duplicate, independently extracted data. Data were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis and reported as relative risk (RR) with 95% CI.Results Thirty-two of the 8130 identified records were included in the review. The pooled RR suggests that HIV+ individuals have a greater risk of MI compared with uninfected individuals (RR: 1.73; 95% CI 1.44 to 2.08). Depending on risk stratification, there was moderate variation according to ART uptake (RR, ART-treated=1.80; 95% CI 1.17 to 2.77; ART-untreated HIV+ individuals: 1.25; 95% CI 0.93 to 1.67, both relative to uninfected individuals). We found low CD4 count, high pVL and certain ART characteristics including cumulative ART exposure, any/cumulative use of protease inhibitors as a class, and exposure to specific ART drugs (eg, abacavir) to be importantly associated with a greater MI risk.Conclusions Our results indicate that HIV infection, low CD4, high pVL, cumulative ART use in general including certain exposure to specific ART class/regimen are associated with increased risk of MI. The association with cumulative ART may be an index of the duration of HIV infection with its attendant inflammation, and not entirely the effect of cumulative exposure to ART per se.PROSPERO registration number CRD42014012977.

BackgroundLate HIV diagnosis is associated with increased AIDS-related morbidity and mortality as well as an increased risk of HIV transmission. In this study, we quantified and characterized missed opportunities for earlier HIV diagnosis in British Columbia (BC), Canada.DesignRetrospective cohort.MethodsA missed opportunity was defined as a healthcare encounter due to a clinical manifestation which may be caused by HIV infection, or is frequently present among those with HIV infection, but no HIV diagnosis followed within 30 days. We developed an algorithm to identify missed opportunities within one, three, and five years prior to diagnosis. The algorithm was applied to the BC STOP HIV/AIDS population-based cohort. Eligible individuals were ≥18 years old, and diagnosed from 2001-2014. Multivariable logistic regression identified factors associated with missed opportunities.ResultsOf 2119 individuals, 7%, 12% and 14% had ≥1 missed opportunity during one, three and five years prior to HIV diagnosis, respectively. In all analyses, individuals aged ≥40 years, heterosexuals or people who ever injected drugs, and those residing in Northern health authority had increased odds of experiencing ≥1 missed opportunity. In the three and five-year analysis, individuals with a CD4 count ConclusionsBased on our newly-developed algorithm, this study demonstrated that HIV-diagnosed individuals in BC have experienced several missed opportunities for earlier diagnosis. Specific clinical indicator conditions and population sub-groups at increased risk of experiencing these missed opportunities were identified. Further work is required in order to validate the utility of this proposed algorithm by establishing the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values corresponding to the incidence of the clinical indicator conditions among both HIV-diagnosed and HIV-negative populations.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0047260.].

Plasma HIV-1 RNA levels (pVLs), routinely used for clinical management, are influenced by measurement error (ME) due to physiologic and assay variation.To assess the ME of the COBAS HIV-1 Ampliprep AMPLICOR MONITOR ultrasensitive assay version 1.5 and the COBAS Ampliprep Taqman HIV-1 assay versions 1.0 and 2.0 close to their lower limit of detection. Secondly to examine whether there was any evidence that pVL measurements closest to the lower limit of quantification, where clinical decisions are made, were susceptible to a higher degree of random noise than the remaining range.We analysed longitudinal pVL of treatment-naïve patients from British Columbia, Canada, during their first six months on treatment, for time periods when each assay was uniquely available: Period 1 (Amplicor): 08/03/2000-01/02/2008; Period 2 (Taqman v1.0): 07/01/2010-07/03/2012; Period 3 (Taqman v2.0): 08/03/2012-30/06/2014. ME was estimated via generalized additive mixed effects models, adjusting for several clinical and demographic variables and follow-up time.The ME associated with each assay was approximately 0.5 log10 copies/mL. The number of pVL measurements, at a given pVL value, was not randomly distributed; values ≤250 copies/mL were strongly systematically overrepresented in all assays, with the prevalence decreasing monotonically as the pVL increased. Model residuals for pVL ≤250 copies/mL were approximately three times higher than that for the higher range, and pVL measurements in this range could not be modelled effectively due to considerable random noise of the data.Although the ME was stable across assays, there is substantial increase in random noise in measuring pVL close to the lower level of detection. These findings have important clinical significance, especially in the range where key clinical decisions are made. Thus, pVL values ≤250 copies/mL should not be taken as the "truth" and repeat pVL measurement is encouraged to confirm viral suppression.

BACKGROUND:In Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China, an estimated 80% of newly-identified antiretroviral therapy (ART)-eligible patients are not engaged in ART. Delayed ART uptake ultimately translates into high rates of HIV morbidity, mortality, and transmission. To enhance HIV testing receipt and subsequent treatment uptake in Guangxi, the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) executed a cluster-randomized trial to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a streamlined HIV testing algorithm (the One4All intervention) in 12 county-level hospitals. OBJECTIVE:To determine the incremental cost-effectiveness of the One4All intervention delivered at county hospitals in Guangxi, China, compared to the current standard of care (SOC). PERSPECTIVE:Health System. TIME HORIZON:1-, 5-and 25-years. METHODS:We adapted a dynamic, compartmental HIV transmission model to simulate HIV transmission and progression in Guangxi, China and identify the economic impact and health benefits of implementing the One4All intervention in all Guangxi hospitals. The One4All intervention algorithm entails rapid point-of-care HIV screening, CD4 and viral load testing of individuals presenting for HIV screening, with same-day results and linkage to counselling. We populated the model with data from the One4All trial (CTN-0056), China CDC HIV registry and published reports. Model outcomes were HIV incidence, mortality, costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the One4All intervention compared to SOC. RESULTS:The One4All testing intervention was more costly than SOC (CNY 2,182 vs. CNY 846), but facilitated earlier ART access, resulting in delayed disease progression and mortality. Over a 25-year time horizon, we estimated that introducing One4All in Guangxi would result in 802 averted HIV cases and 1629 averted deaths at an ICER of CNY 11,678 per QALY gained. Sensitivity analysis revealed that One4All remained cost-effective at even minimal levels of effectiveness. Results were robust to changes to a range of parameters characterizing the HIV epidemic over time. CONCLUSIONS:The One4All HIV testing strategy was highly cost-effective by WHO standards, and should be prioritized for widespread implementation in Guangxi, China. Integrating the intervention within a broader combination prevention strategy would enhance the public health response to HIV/AIDS in Guangxi.

BackgroundAnnually, 10 million adults transition through prisons or jails in the United States (US) and the prevalence of HIV among entrants is three times higher than that for the country as a whole. We assessed the potential impact of increasing HIV Testing/Treatment/Retention (HIV-TTR) in the community and within the criminal justice system (CJS) facilities, coupled with sexual risk behavior change, focusing on black men-who-have-sex-with-men, 15-54 years, in Atlanta, USA.MethodsWe modeled the effect of a HIV-TTR strategy on the estimated cumulative number of new (acquired) infections and mortality, and on the HIV prevalence at the end of ten years. We additionally assessed the effect of increasing condom use in all settings.ResultsIn the Status Quo scenario, at the end of 10 years, the cumulative number of new infections in the community, jail and prison was, respectively, 9246, 77 and 154 cases; HIV prevalence was 10815, 69 and 152 cases, respectively; and the cumulative number of deaths was 2585, 18 and 34 cases, respectively. By increasing HIV-TTR coverage, the cumulative number of new infections could decrease by 15% in the community, 19% in jail, and 8% in prison; HIV prevalence could decrease by 8%, 9% and 7%, respectively; mortality could decrease by 20%, 39% and 18%, respectively. Based on the model results, we have shown that limited use and access to condoms have contributed to the HIV incidence and prevalence in all settings.ConclusionsAggressive implementation of a CJS-focused HIV-TTR strategy has the potential to interrupt HIV transmission and reduce mortality, with benefit to the community at large. To maximize the impact of these interventions, retention in treatment, including during the period after jail and prison release, and increased condom use was vital for decreasing the burden of the HIV epidemic in all settings.

Widely access to interferon-free direct-acting antiviral regimens (IFN-free DAA) is poised to dramatically change the impact of the HCV epidemic among people who inject drugs (PWID). We evaluated the long-term effect of increasing HCV testing, treatment and engagement into harm-reduction activities, focused on active PWID, on the HCV epidemic in British Columbia (BC), Canada.We built a compartmental model of HCV disease transmission stratified by disease progression, transmission risk, and fibrosis level. We explored the effect of: (1) Increasing treatment rates from 8 to 20, 40 and 80 per 1000 infected PWID/year; (2) Increasing treatment eligibility based on fibrosis level; (3) Maximizing the effect of testing by performing it immediately upon ending the acute phase; (4) Increasing access to harm-reduction activities to reduce the risk of re-infection; (5) Different HCV antiviral regimens on the Control Reproduction Number Rc. We assessed the impact of these interventions on incidence, prevalence and mortality from 2016 to 2030.Of all HCV antiviral regimens, only IFN-free DAAs offered a high chance of disease elimination (i.e. Rc < 1), but it would be necessary to substantially increase the current low testing and treatment rates. Assuming a treatment rate of 80 per 1000 infected PWID per year, coupled with a high testing rate, the incidence rate, at the end of 2030, could decrease from 92.9 per 1000 susceptible PWID per year (Status Quo) to 82.8 (by treating only PWID with fibrosis level F2 and higher) or to 65.5 (by treating PWID regardless of fibrosis level). If PWID also had access to increased harm-reduction activities, the incidence rate further decreased to 53.1 per 1000 susceptible PWID per year. We also obtained significant decreases in prevalence and mortality at the end of 2030.The combination of increased access to HCV testing, highly efficacious antiviral treatment and harm-reduction programs can substantially decrease the burden of the HCV epidemic among PWID. However, unless we increase the current levels of treatment and testing, the HCV epidemic among PWID in BC, and in other parts of the world with similar epidemiological background, will remain a substantial public health concern for many years.

The association between childhood sexual abuse and HIV risk among men who have sex with men (MSM) is well established. However, no studies have examined the potential impact of other forms of childhood maltreatment on HIV incidence in this population.We explored the impact of child physical abuse (CPA) on HIV seroconversion in a cohort of gay/bisexual men aged 15 to 30 in Vancouver, Canada. Cox proportional hazard models were used, controlling for confounders.Among 287 participants, 211 (73.5%) reported experiencing CPA before the age of 17, and 42 (14.6%) reporting URAI in the past year. After a median of 6.6 years follow-up, 16 (5.8%) participants HIV-seroconverted. In multivariate analysis, CPA was significantly associated with HIV seroconversion (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] = 4.89, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.65-14.48), after controlling for potential confounders.Our study uncovered a link between childhood physical violence and HIV incidence. Results highlight an urgent need for screening of young gay and bisexual men for histories of violence, and social and structural supports to prevent HIV transmission in this population.

The HIV cascade of care (cascade) is a comprehensive tool which identifies attrition along the HIV care continuum. We executed analyses to explicate heterogeneity in the cascade across key strata, as well as identify predictors of attrition across stages of the cascade.Using linked individual-level data for the population of HIV-positive individuals in BC, we considered the 2011 calendar year, including individuals diagnosed at least 6 months prior, and excluding individuals that died or were lost to follow-up before January 1st, 2011. We defined five stages in the cascade framework: HIV 'diagnosed', 'linked' to care, 'retained' in care, 'on HAART' and virologically 'suppressed'. We stratified the cascade by sex, age, risk category, and regional health authority. Finally, multiple logistic regression models were built to predict attrition across each stage of the cascade, adjusting for stratification variables.We identified 7621 HIV diagnosed individuals during the study period; 80% were male and 5% were

OBJECTIVES: We measured gender differences in "Quality of Care" (QOC) during the first year after initiation of antiretroviral therapy and investigated factors associated with poorer QOC among women. DESIGN: QOC was estimated using the Programmatic Compliance Score (PCS), a validated metric associated with all-cause mortality, among all patients (≥19 years) who initiated ART in British Columbia, Canada (2000-2010). METHODS: PCS includes six indicators of non-compliance with treatment initiation guidelines at baseline (not having drug resistance testing before treatment; starting on a non-recommended regimen; starting therapy at CD4

There has been renewed call for the global expansion of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) under the framework of HIV treatment as prevention (TasP). However, population-level sustainability of this strategy has not been characterized.We used population-level longitudinal data from province-wide registries including plasma viral load, CD4 count, drug resistance, HAART use, HIV diagnoses, AIDS incidence, and HIV-related mortality. We fitted two Poisson regression models over the study period, to relate estimated HIV incidence and the number of individuals on HAART and the percentage of virologically suppressed individuals.HAART coverage, median pre-HAART CD4 count, and HAART adherence increased over time and were associated with increasing virological suppression and decreasing drug resistance. AIDS incidence decreased from 6.9 to 1.4 per 100,000 population (80% decrease, p = 0.0330) and HIV-related mortality decreased from 6.5 to 1.3 per 100,000 population (80% decrease, p = 0.0115). New HIV diagnoses declined from 702 to 238 cases (66% decrease; p = 0.0004) with a consequent estimated decline in HIV incident cases from 632 to 368 cases per year (42% decrease; p = 0.0003). Finally, our models suggested that for each increase of 100 individuals on HAART, the estimated HIV incidence decreased 1.2% and for every 1% increase in the number of individuals suppressed on HAART, the estimated HIV incidence also decreased by 1%.Our results show that HAART expansion between 1996 and 2012 in BC was associated with a sustained and profound population-level decrease in morbidity, mortality and HIV transmission. Our findings support the long-term effectiveness and sustainability of HIV treatment as prevention within an adequately resourced environment with no financial barriers to diagnosis, medical care or antiretroviral drugs. The 2013 Consolidated World Health Organization Antiretroviral Therapy Guidelines offer a unique opportunity to further evaluate TasP in other settings, particularly within generalized epidemics, and resource-limited setting, as advocated by UNAIDS.

BackgroundExpanding access to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) has become an important approach to HIV prevention in recent years. Previous studies suggest that concomitant changes in risk behaviours may either help or hinder programs that use a Treatment as Prevention strategy.AnalysisWe consider HIV-related risk behaviour as a social contagion in a deterministic compartmental model, which treats risk behaviour and HIV infection as linked processes, where acquiring risk behaviour is a prerequisite for contracting HIV. The equilibrium behaviour of the model is analysed to determine epidemic outcomes under conditions of expanding HAART coverage along with risk behaviours that change with HAART coverage. We determined the potential impact of changes in risk behaviour on the outcomes of Treatment as Prevention strategies. Model results show that HIV incidence and prevalence decline only above threshold levels of HAART coverage, which depends strongly on risk behaviour parameter values. Expanding HAART coverage with simultaneous reduction in risk behaviour act synergistically to accelerate the drop in HIV incidence and prevalence. Above the thresholds, additional HAART coverage is always sufficient to reverse the impact of HAART optimism on incidence and prevalence. Applying the model to an HIV epidemic in Vancouver, Canada, showed no evidence of HAART optimism in that setting.ConclusionsOur results suggest that Treatment as Prevention has significant potential for controlling the HIV epidemic once HAART coverage reaches a threshold. Furthermore, expanding HAART coverage combined with interventions targeting risk behaviours amplify the preventive impact, potentially driving the HIV epidemic to elimination.

HIV leads to CD4:CD8 ratio inversion as immune dysregulation progresses. We examined the predictors of CD4:CD8 normalization after combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) and determined whether normalization is associated with reduced progression to AIDS-defining illnesses (ADI) and death.A Canadian cohort of HIV-positive adults with CD4:CD830 days apart, and (2) ADI and death from all causes were assessed using adjusted proportional hazards models.4206 patients were studied for a median of 2.77 years and 306 (7.2%) normalized their CD4:CD8 ratio. Factors associated with achieving a normal CD4:CD8 ratio were: baseline CD4+ T-cells >350 cells/mm(3), baseline CD8+ T-cells

Little is known about the potential impact of food insecurity on mortality among people living with HIV/AIDS. We examined the potential relationship between food insecurity and all-cause mortality among HIV-positive injection drug users (IDU) initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) across British Columbia (BC).Cross-sectional measurement of food security status was taken at participant ART initiation. Participants were prospectively followed from June 1998 to September 2011 within the fully subsidized ART program. Cox proportional hazard models were used to ascertain the association between food insecurity and mortality, controlling for potential confounders.Among 254 IDU, 181 (71.3%) were food insecure and 108 (42.5%) were hungry. After 13.3 years of median follow-up, 105 (41.3%) participants died. In multivariate analyses, food insecurity remained significantly associated with mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] = 1.95, 95% CI: 1.07-3.53), after adjusting for potential confounders.HIV-positive IDU reporting food insecurity were almost twice as likely to die, compared to food secure IDU. Further research is required to understand how and why food insecurity is associated with excess mortality in this population. Public health organizations should evaluate the possible role of food supplementation and socio-structural supports for IDU within harm reduction and HIV treatment programs.

To define a population-level cohort of individuals infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in the province of British Columbia from available registries and administrative datasets using a validated case-finding algorithm.Individuals were identified for possible cohort inclusion from the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS (CfE) drug treatment program (antiretroviral therapy) and laboratory testing datasets (plasma viral load (pVL) and CD4 diagnostic test results), the BC Centre for Disease Control (CDC) provincial HIV surveillance database (positive HIV tests), as well as databases held by the BC Ministry of Health (MoH); the Discharge Abstract Database (hospitalizations), the Medical Services Plan (physician billing) and PharmaNet databases (additional HIV-related medications). A validated case-finding algorithm was applied to distinguish true HIV cases from those likely to have been misclassified. The sensitivity of the algorithms was assessed as the proportion of confirmed cases (those with records in the CfE, CDC and MoH databases) positively identified by each algorithm. A priori hypotheses were generated and tested to verify excluded cases.A total of 25,673 individuals were identified as having at least one HIV-related health record. Among 9,454 unconfirmed cases, the selected case-finding algorithm identified 849 individuals believed to be HIV-positive. The sensitivity of this algorithm among confirmed cases was 88%. Those excluded from the cohort were more likely to be female (44.4% vs. 22.5%; p

BACKGROUND: Although HIV treatment as prevention (TasP) via early antiretroviral therapy (ART) has proven to reduce transmissions among HIV-serodiscordant couples, its full implementation in developing countries remains a challenge. In this study, we determine whether China's current HIV treatment program prevents new HIV infections among discordant couples in rural China. METHODS: A prospective, longitudinal cohort study was conducted from June 2009 to March 2011, in rural Yunnan. A total of 1,618 HIV-discordant couples were eligible, 1,101 were enrolled, and 813 were followed for an average of 1.4 person-years (PY). Routine ART was prescribed to HIV-positive spouses according to eligibility (CD4

Cohort data examining differences by gender in clinical responses to combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) remain inconsistent and have yet to be explored in a multi-province Canadian setting. This study investigates gender differences by injection drug use (IDU) history in virologic responses to ART and mortality.Data from the Canadian Observational Cohort (CANOC) collaboration, a multisite cohort study of HIV-positive individuals initiating ART after January 1, 2000, were included. This analysis was restricted to participants with a follow-up HIV-RNA plasma viral load measure and known IDU history. Weibull hazard regression evaluated time to virologic suppression (2 consecutive measures 1000 copies/mL after suppression), and all-cause mortality. Sensitivity analyses explored the impact of presumed ART use in pregnancy on virologic outcomes.At baseline, women (1120 of 5442 participants) were younger (median 36 vs. 41 years) and more frequently reported IDU history (43.5% vs. 28.8%) (both p

We developed and validated a new and simple metric, the Programmatic Compliance Score (PCS), based on the IAS-USA antiretroviral therapy management guidelines for HIV-infected adults, as a predictor of all-cause mortality, at a program-wide level. We hypothesized that non-compliance would be associated with the highest probability of mortality.3543 antiretroviral-naive HIV-infected patients aged ≥19 years who initiated antiretroviral therapy between January 1, 2000 and August 31, 2009 in British Columbia (BC), Canada, were followed until August 31, 2010. The PCS is composed by six non-performance indicators based on the IAS-USA guidelines: (1) having

To establish the reliability and validity of a shortened (10-item) depression scale used among HIV-positive patients enrolled in the Drug Treatment Program in British Columbia, Canada.The 10-item CES-D (Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale) was examined among 563 participants who initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) between August 1, 1996 and June 30, 2002. Internal consistency of the scale was measured by Cronbach's alpha. Using the original CES-D 20 as primary criteria, comparisons were made using the Kappa statistic. Predictive accuracy of CES-D 10 was assessed by calculating sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values and negative predictive values. Factor analysis was also performed to determine if the CES-D 10 contained the same factors of positive and negative affect found in the original development of the CES-D.The correlation between the original and the shortened scale is very high (Spearman correlation coefficient =0.97 (P

BACKGROUND:We aimed to characterize changes in patterns of new HIV diagnoses, HIV-related mortality, and HAART use in Canada from 1995 to 2008. METHODS:Data on new HIV diagnoses were obtained from Health Canada, HIV-related mortality statistics were obtained from Statistics Canada, and information on the number of people on HAART was obtained from the single antiretroviral distribution site in British Columbia (BC), and the Intercontinental Marketing Services Health for Ontario and Quebec. Trends of new HIV-positive tests were assessed using Spearman rank correlations and the association between the number of individuals on HAART and new HIV diagnoses were estimated using generalized estimating equations (GEE). RESULTS:A total of 34,502 new HIV diagnoses were observed. Rates of death in BC are higher than those in Ontario and Quebec with the rate being 2.03 versus 1.06 and 1.21 per 100,000 population, respectively. The number of HIV-infected individuals on HAART increased from 2,081 in 1996 to 20,431 in 2008 in the three provinces (nearly 10-fold increase). BC was the only province with a statistically significant decrease (trend test p

The lower limit of detection of the original Roche Amplicor HIV plasma viral load (pVL) assay (50 copies/mL) has defined HIV treatment success. The Amplicor assay, however, has been replaced by the Roche TaqMan assay(s). Changes to the limits of detection and calibration have not been validated for clinical utility. Sudden increases in the number of patients with detectable pVL have been reported following the introduction of the TaqMan version 1 assay.Between October 2009 and April 2010 all routine pVL samples from British Columbia, Canada, with 40-250 copies/mL by TaqMan were re-tested by Amplicor (N = 1198). Subsequent short-term virological and resistance outcomes were followed in patients with unchanged therapy (N = 279; median 3.2 months follow-up).TaqMan and Amplicor values correlated poorly at low pVL values. Low-level pVL by TaqMan was not associated with impending short-term virological failure; only 17% of patients with 40-250 copies/mL by TaqMan had detectable pVL by Amplicor at follow-up. During the follow-up period only 20% of patients had an increase in pVL by TaqMan (median [IQR]: 80 [36-283] copies/mL). In addition, in ~2.4% of samples pVL was dramatically underestimated by TaqMan due to poor binding of the proprietary TaqMan primers.The replacement of Amplicor with the TaqMan assay has altered the previously accepted definition of HIV treatment failure without any evidence to support the clinical relevance of the new definition. Given the systematic differences in measurement in the low pVL range the British Columbia HIV treatment guidelines now use a threshold of >250 copies/mL by TaqMan to define treatment failure.

Background'Virtual' or inferred phenotypes (vPhenotypes) are commonly used to assess resistance to antiretroviral agents in patients failing therapy. In this study, we provide a clinical context for understanding vPhenotype values.MethodsAll HIV-infected persons enrolled in the British Columbia Drug Treatment Program with a baseline plasma viral load (pVL) and follow-up genotypic resistance and pVL results were included up to October 29, 2008 (N = 5,277). Change from baseline pVL was determined as a function of Virco vPhenotype, and the "dynamic range" (defined here by the 10th and 90th percentiles for fold-change in IC₅₀ amongst all patients) was estimated from the distribution of vPhenotye fold-changes across the cohort.ResultsThe distribution of vPhenotypes from a large cohort of HIV patients who have failed therapy are presented for all available antiretroviral agents. A maximum change in IC₅₀ of at least 13-fold was observed for all drugs. The dideoxy drugs, tenofovir and most PIs exhibited small "dynamic ranges" with values of 99% of samples. In contrast, zidovudine, lamivudine, emtricitabine and the non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inihibitors (excluding etravirine) had large dynamic ranges.ConclusionWe describe the populational distribution of vPhenotypes such that vPhenotype results can be interpreted relative to other patients in a drug-specific manner.

In 2008, the IAS-USA published the revised guidelines for the use of HAART in adults substantially increasing the number of individuals eligible for HAART. The epidemic in British Columbia (BC) is mainly among men who have sex with men and those with injection drug use. Here, we explored the potential impact of different HAART coverage scenarios, based on the new guidelines, on the HIV-related incidence, morbidity and mortality in BC, Canada.We built a mathematical transmission model to investigate different HAART coverage scenarios (50%, 60%, 75% and 100%) of those medically eligible to receive HAART under the 2008 IAS guidelines. All new scenarios were compared to the current coverage in BC under the 2006 IAS guidelines (i.e. baseline scenario). In BC, it is estimated that 25-30% of individuals are unaware of their status. Costs were drug-related and reported in Canadian dollars. HIV-related morbidity and mortality were estimated based on the disability-adjusted life years (DALY) methodology.Currently, there are 4379 individuals on HAART under the IAS 2006 guidelines and 6781 individuals who qualify for treatment based on the new guidelines. Within 5 years, increasing HAART coverage decreased yearly new infections by at least 44.8%. In the 50% scenario, in 5 years, DALY decreased by 53% corresponding to 4155 averted DALYs, and in 25 years it decreased by 66% corresponding to 5837 averted DALYs. The effect was even stronger if the 75% scenario was chosen instead. Compared to the 100% expansion scenario, we observed an excess in annual direct treatment expenditures at the end of 5 years of approximately 1 million dollars in the 75% scenario, and of approximately 2 million dollars in the 50% scenario.The individual and public health benefits of these new guidelines are immense. The results show that by increasing the number of individuals on HAART save lives, it is cost averting, and it positively impacts society by decreasing the number of new HIV infections. Thus, public health community should consider incremental gains when considering guidelines and policy.

Despite the formidable mutational capacity and sequence diversity of HIV-1, evidence suggests that viral evolution in response to specific selective pressures follows generally predictable mutational pathways. Population-based analyses of clinically derived HIV sequences may be used to identify immune escape mutations in viral genes; however, prior attempts to identify such mutations have been complicated by the inability to discriminate active immune selection from virus founder effects. Furthermore, the association between mutations arising under in vivo immune selection and disease progression for highly variable pathogens such as HIV-1 remains incompletely understood. We applied a viral lineage-corrected analytical method to investigate HLA class I-associated sequence imprinting in HIV protease, reverse transcriptase (RT), Vpr, and Nef in a large cohort of chronically infected, antiretrovirally naïve individuals. A total of 478 unique HLA-associated polymorphisms were observed and organized into a series of "escape maps," which identify known and putative cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) epitopes under selection pressure in vivo. Our data indicate that pathways to immune escape are predictable based on host HLA class I profile, and that epitope anchor residues are not the preferred sites of CTL escape. Results reveal differential contributions of immune imprinting to viral gene diversity, with Nef exhibiting far greater evidence for HLA class I-mediated selection compared to other genes. Moreover, these data reveal a significant, dose-dependent inverse correlation between HLA-associated polymorphisms and HIV disease stage as estimated by CD4(+) T cell count. Identification of specific sites and patterns of HLA-associated polymorphisms across HIV protease, RT, Vpr, and Nef illuminates regions of the genes encoding these products under active immune selection pressure in vivo. The high density of HLA-associated polymorphisms in Nef compared to other genes investigated indicates differential HLA class I-driven evolution in different viral genes. The relationship between HLA class I-associated polymorphisms and lower CD4(+) cell count suggests that immune escape correlates with disease status, supporting an essential role of maintenance of effective CTL responses in immune control of HIV-1. The design of preventative and therapeutic CTL-based vaccine approaches could incorporate information on predictable escape pathways.

BackgroundThe impact of the emergence of drug-resistance mutations on mortality is not well characterized in antiretroviral-naïve patients first starting highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). Patients may be able to sustain immunologic function with resistant virus, and there is limited evidence that reduced sensitivity to antiretrovirals leads to rapid disease progression or death. We undertook the present analysis to characterize the determinants of mortality in a prospective cohort study with a median of nearly 5 y of follow-up. The objective of this study was to determine the impact of the emergence of drug-resistance mutations on survival among persons initiating HAART.Methods and findingsParticipants were antiretroviral therapy naïve at entry and initiated triple combination antiretroviral therapy between August 1, 1996, and September 30, 1999. Marginal structural modeling was used to address potential confounding between time-dependent variables in the Cox proportional hazard regression models. In this analysis resistance to any class of drug was considered as a binary time-dependent exposure to the risk of death, controlling for the effect of other time-dependent confounders. We also considered each separate class of mutation as a binary time-dependent exposure, while controlling for the presence/absence of other mutations. A total of 207 deaths were identified among 1,138 participants over the follow-up period, with an all cause mortality rate of 18.2%. Among the 679 patients with HIV-drug-resistance genotyping done before initiating HAART, HIV-drug resistance to any class was observed in 53 (7.8%) of the patients. During follow-up, HIV-drug resistance to any class was observed in 302 (26.5%) participants. Emergence of any resistance was associated with mortality (hazard ratio: 1.75 [95% confidence interval: 1.27, 2.43]). When we considered each class of resistance separately, persons who exhibited resistance to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors had the highest risk: mortality rates were 3.02 times higher (95% confidence interval: 1.99, 4.57) for these patients than for those who did not exhibit this type of resistance.ConclusionsWe demonstrated that emergence of resistance to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors was associated with a greater risk of subsequent death than was emergence of protease inhibitor resistance. Future research is needed to identify the particular subpopulations of men and women at greatest risk and to elucidate the impact of resistance over a longer follow-up period.