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Background Identifying if and how climatic and non-climatic factors drive local changes in fire regimes is, as in many other human-dominated landscapes, challenging in south-eastern France where both heterogeneous spatial patterns and complex fire trends are observed. Aim We sought to identify the factors driving the spatial-temporal patterns of fire activity in southeastern France. Methods We incorporated several non-climatic variables into the probabilistic Firelihood model of fire activity and implemented an enhanced spatio-temporal component to quantitatively assess remaining unexplained variations in fire activity. Key results Several non-climatic drivers (i.e. orography, land cover and human activities) contributed as much as fire-weather to the distribution of fire occurrence (>1 ha) but less to larger fires (>10, 100 and 1000 ha). Over the past decades, increased fire-weather induced a strong increase in wildfire probabilities, which was actually observed on the western part of the region but not so in the east and Corsican Island, most likely due to reinforced suppression policies. Conclusions While spatial patterns in fire activity are driven by land-use and land-cover factors, temporal patterns were mostly driven by changes in fire-weather and unexplained effects potentially related to suppression policies but with large differences between regions.

Background An increase in fire weather is expected in a warming climate, but its translation to fire activity (fire numbers and sizes) remains largely unknown. Additionally, disentangling the extent to which geographic and seasonal extensions as well as intensification contribute to future fire activity remain largely unknown. Aims We aimed to assess the impact of future climate change on fire activity in southeastern France and estimate changes in spatial and seasonal distributions. Methods We projected future fire activities using a Bayesian modelling framework combined with ensemble climate simulations. Changes in numbers of escaped fires (>1 ha), large fires (>100 ha) and burned area were studied for different emission scenarios or degrees of global warming. Key results Fire activity could increase by up to +180% for +4°C of global warming, with large expansions of fire-prone regions and long seasonal lengthenings. Overall, changes will be dominated by intensification within the historical fire niche, representing two-thirds of additional future fire activity, half of this occurring during the high fire season. Conclusions This study confirms that major changes in fire niches would be expected in Euro-Mediterranean regions. Implications Long-term strategic policies for adapting prevention and suppression resources and ecosystems are needed to account for such changes.

Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD, atmospheric drought) and soil water potential (Ψsoil, soil drought) have both been reported to affect terrestrial plant water stress, plant functions (growth, stomatal conductance, transpiration) and vulnerability to ecosystem disturbances (mortality or vulnerability to wildfires). Which of atmospheric drought or soil drought has the greatest influence on these responses is yet an unresolved question. Using a state-of-the-art soil-plant-atmosphere hydraulic model, we conducted an in-silico experiment where VPD and Ψsoil were manipulated one at a time to quantify the relative importance of atmospheric vs soil drought on most critical plant functions. The model simulates the combined effects of soil drought and atmospheric drought on plant water potential (ΨPlant), a physiologically meaningful metric of plant water status driving plant turgor, stomatal conductance, hydraulic conductance or water content, and thus mortality and fire risks. Contrary to expectations, we showed that VPD had a weaker effect than Ψsoil on tree water stress and forest disturbances risk (i.e leaf moisture content). While physiological responses associated with low water stress such as stomatal closure or turgor loss could be driven by both VPD or soil drought, consequences of extreme water stress such as hydraulic failure, leaf desiccation and vulnerability to wildfires were almost exclusively driven by low Ψsoil. Our results therefore suggest that most plant functions are affected by VPD through its cumulative effect on Ψsoil via increased plant transpiration, rather than through a direct instantaneous effect on plant water potential. We argue that plant hydraulics provide a strong foundation for predicting tree and terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate changes and propose a list of explanations and testable hypotheses to reconcile plant hydraulic theory and observations of soil and atmospheric drought effects on plant functions.

The current acceleration of climate change in Europe makes it essential to assess spatially the impact of drought and heat waves on forest disturbances risk (mortality, wildfire risk, etc…). Recent studies have shown that hydraulic failure is a key driver of forest disturbances. Hydraulic failure can be modelled with state-of-the-art plant hydraulic models that are driven by climate data and different traits including (i) hydraulic traits (such as xylem cavitation resistance and stomatal regulation), (ii) leaf area index and (iii) total soil water capacity. Among these traits soil water capacity is highly sensitive, but is poorly available at large scale.In this study we used the process based plant hydraulic model SUREAU (Cochard et al., 2021; Ruffault et al 2022) to estimate hydraulic failure risk for forest at the European scale for the last 3 decades. To initialize the model we used spatialized climate (ERA5), LAI data (from Copernicus remote sensing) and land cover (ESA CCI). Species hydraulic traits for major European species were extracted from global databases. In order to initialize the total soil water capacity at European scale and compensate the lack of soil water data, we developed an algorithm of model inversion based on ecohydrological assumption. The ecohydrological assumption is that forest adjust their total available water capacity through rooting depth, for a given climate, traits combination and Leaf area index to maintain a low embolism rate under normal conditions (excluding extreme drought). Our simulation approach simulations allowed to spatialized forest vulnerability to drought and to map total soil water capacity under forest stands.

Fuel moisture content (FMC) is a crucial driver of forest fires in many regions world-wide. Yet, the dynamics of FMC in forest canopies as well as their physiological and environmental determinants remain poorly understood, especially under extreme drought.We embedded a FMC module in the trait-based, plant-hydraulic SurEau-Ecos model to provide innovative process-based predictions of leaf live fuel moisture content (LFMC) and canopy fuel moisture content (CFMC) based on leaf water potential (psi Leaf$$ {\psi}_{\mathrm{Leaf}} $$). SurEau-Ecos-FMC relies on pressure-volume (p-v) curves to simulate LFMC and vulnerability curves to cavitation to simulate foliage mortality.SurEau-Ecos-FMC accurately reproduced psi Leaf$$ {\psi}_{\mathrm{Leaf}} $$ and LFMC dynamics as well as the occurrence of foliage mortality in a Mediterranean Quercus ilex forest. Several traits related to water use (leaf area index, available soil water, and transpiration regulation), vulnerability to cavitation, and p-v curves (full turgor osmotic potential) had the greatest influence on LFMC and CFMC dynamics. As the climate gets drier, our results showed that drought-induced foliage mortality is expected to increase, thereby significantly decreasing CFMC.Our results represent an important advance in our capacity to understand and predict the sensitivity of forests to wildfires.

International audience; Wildfire is a common phenomenon in Mediterranean countries but the 2022 fire season has been extreme in southwest Europe (Portugal, Spain and France). Here we provide a preliminary but comprehensive analysis of 2022's wildfire sea-son in southwest Europe. Burned area has exceeded the 2001-2021 median by a factor of 52 in some regions and large wildfires (>500 ha) started to occur in June-July, earlier than the traditional fire season. These anomalies were asso-ciated with record-breaking values of fuel dryness, atmospheric water demand and pyrometeorological conditions. Live fuel moisture content was below the historical minima for almost 50 % of the season in some regions. A few large wildfires were responsible for 82 % of the burned area and, in turn, 47 % of the area burned occurred in protected areas. Shrublands, transitional woodlands and conifer forests (but not eucalypt plantations) were the land cover types most affected by extreme fires. As climate change intensifies, we can expect such fire seasons to become the new nor-mal in large parts of the continent, potentially leading to major negative impacts on rural economies. These results highlight the need for landscape level fuel management also in protected areas, to avoid fire-induced biodiversity losses and landscape scale degradation. Our results have important policy implications and indicate that fire preven-tion should be explicitly addressed within continental forest legislation and strategies.

[Background]: ‘Megafire’ is an emerging concept commonly used to describe fires that are extreme in terms of size, behaviour, and/or impacts, but the term’s meaning remains ambiguous. [Approach]: We sought to resolve ambiguity surrounding the meaning of ‘megafire’ by conducting a structured review of the use and definition of the term in several languages in the peer-reviewed scientific literature. We collated definitions and descriptions of megafire and identified criteria frequently invoked to define megafire. We recorded the size and location of megafires and mapped them to reveal global variation in the size of fires described as megafires. [Results]: We identified 109 studies that define the term ‘megafire’ or identify a megafire, with the term first appearing in the peer-reviewed literature in 2005. Seventy-one (~65%) of these studies attempted to describe or define the term. There was considerable variability in the criteria used to define megafire, although definitions of megafire based on fire size were most common. Megafire size thresholds varied geographically from > 100–100,000 ha, with fires > 10,000 ha the most common size threshold (41%, 18/44 studies). Definitions of megafire were most common from studies led by authors from North America (52%, 37/71). We recorded 137 instances from 84 studies where fires were reported as megafires, the vast majority (94%, 129/137) of which exceed 10,000 ha in size. Megafires occurred in a range of biomes, but were most frequently described in forested biomes (112/137, 82%), and usually described single ignition fires (59% 81/137). [Conclusion]: As Earth’s climate and ecosystems change, it is important that scientists can communicate trends in the occurrence of larger and more extreme fires with clarity. To overcome ambiguity, we suggest a definition of megafire as fires > 10,000 ha arising from single or multiple related ignition events. We introduce two additional terms – gigafire (> 100,000 ha) and terafire (> 1,000,000 ha) – for fires of an even larger scale than megafires., Threatened Species Recovery Hub; NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub; Australian Wildlife Society; World Wildlife Fund

Une recrudescence des incendies extrêmes est observée sur tous les continents. Trois principaux facteurs aggravants sont discutés. La croissance démographique et l’étalement urbain augmentent l’exposition des biens et des personnes, et multiplient les mises à feu accidentelles. Les changements d’usage des sols favorisent le développement de la biomasse combustible. Enfin, le changement climatique et les sécheresses associées accroissent la combustibilité des végétaux et, de fait, la propagation des feux. Les interactions entre le risque d’incendie et d’autres risques d’origines biotique et abiotique sont ensuite illustrées, notamment l’effet retour des incendies extrêmes sur le climat par la libération massive de gaz à effet de serre. Nous concluons sur des recommandations pour la France en matière de gestion massive du combustible, de planification territoriale et de responsabilisation des citoyens. L’efficacité de ces mesures sera jugée à l’aune des dommages socio-écologiques évités plutôt que des gains en termes de superficie brûlée.

Mediterranean ecosystems are prone to forest fires, as evidenced by several extreme fire seasons which struck in the last two decades, including both western (2003, 2005, 2017) and eastern (2007, 2018, 2021) Mediterranean sectors. These fire seasons had a massive impact on the economy and the environment, having also caused many human casualties, including 145 in Portugal 2017 and about 100 in Greece 2018. Moreover, it is now widely accepted that these outstanding fire seasons are often associated with unusually intense droughts and heatwaves (Turco et al., 2019; Ruffault et al, 2020). Additionally, there is strong evidence that the frequency of drought events in the Mediterranean basin has increased significantly in the last decades and is bound to increase further under different climate change scenarios (Tramblay et al., 2020).The relentless tendency for increasing summer temperatures in Europe in recent decades, when compared to the last 500 hundred years, also underlines that the increment in temperatures is extensive to central and Scandinavian countries (Sousa et al., 2020), where forest fires have become considerably more frequent. Recent assessments have emphasised the synergy between drought and extremely hot summers in the Mediterranean (Russo et al., 2020).In addition to this climate change scenarios point to a likely increase in the frequency of two specific heat-induced fire-weather types, precisely those that have been related to the largest wildfires observed in recent years (Ruffault et al., 2020). Heat-induced fire-weather types are characterized by compound dry and warm conditions occurring during summer heatwaves, either under moderate (heatwave type) or intense (hot drought type) drought. The frequency of heat-induced fire-weather is projected to increase by 14% by the end of the century (2071-2100) under the RCP4.5 scenario, and by 30% under the RCP8.5. In summary, these results consistently suggest that the frequency and extent of wildfires will increase throughout the Mediterranean Basin. Ruffault J., Curt T., Moron V., Trigo R.M., Mouillot F., Koutsias N., Pimont F., Martin-StPaul N., Barbero R., Dupuy J.-L., Russo A., Belhadj-Khedher C., (2020) Scientific Reports, 10, 13790, doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-70069-zRusso A., Gouveia C.M., Dutra E., Soares P.M.M., Trigo R.M. (2019) Environmental Research Letters, 14(1), 014011, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aaf09eSousa P., Barriopedro D., García-Herrera R., Ordoñez C., Soares P.MM, Trigo R.M. (2020) Communications Earth & Environment, 1, 48, doi: 10.1038/s43247-020-00048-9Turco M., Jerez S., Augusto S., Tarín-Carrasco P., Ratola N., Jimenez-Guerrero P., Trigo, R.M. (2019) Scientific Reports, 9, 1, doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-50281-2 This work was supported by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project FIRECAST (PCIF/GRF/0204/2017). M.T. is supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities - Spanish State Research Agency and the European Regional Development Fund through the PREDFIRE projects (RTI2018-099711-J-I00, MCI/AEI/FEDER, EU) and the Ramón y Cajal grant (RYC2019-027115-I). S.J. thanks the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities - Agencia Estatal de Investigación and the European Regional Development Fund for the support received through the EASE project (RTI2018 100870 A I00).

A widespread increase in tree mortality has been observed around the globe, and this trend is likely to continue because of ongoing climate-induced increases in drought frequency and intensity. This raises the need to identify regions and ecosystems that are likely to experience the most frequent and significant damages. We present SurEau-Ecos, a trait-based, plant-hydraulic model designed to predict tree desiccation and mortality at scales from stand to region. SurEau-Ecos draws on the general principles of the process-based, soil-plant-atmosphere SurEau model. It also introduces a simplified representation of plant architecture and alternative numerical schemes; both additions made to facilitate model parameterization and large-scale applications. In SurEau-Ecos, the water fluxes from the soil to the atmosphere are represented through two plant organs (a leaf and a stem, which includes the volume of the trunk, roots and branches) as the product of an interface conductance and the difference of water potentials. Each organ is described by its symplasmic and apoplasmic compartments. The dynamics of plant’s water status beyond the point of stomatal closure are explicitly represented via residual transpiration flow, plant cavitation and solicitation of plants’ water reservoirs. In addition to the "explicit” numerical scheme of SurEau, we implemented a “semi-implicit” and “implicit” scheme. Both schemes led to a substantial gain in computing time compared to the “explicit” scheme (>10,000 times), and the implicit scheme was the most accurate. We also observed similar plant water dynamics between SurEau-Ecos and SurEau but slight disparities in infra-daily variations of plant water potentials that we attributed to the differences in the representation of plant architecture between models. A global model’s sensitivity analysis revealed that factors controlling plant desiccation rates differ depending on whether leaf water potential is below or above the point of stomatal closure. Total available water for the plant, leaf area index, and the leaf water potential at 50 % stomatal closure mostly drove the time needed to reach stomatal closure. Once stomata are closed, resistance to cavitation, residual cuticular transpiration and plant water stocks mostly determined the time to hydraulic failure. Finally, we illustrated the potential of SurEau-Ecos to simulate regional drought-induced mortality over France. SurEau-Ecos is a promising tool to perform regional-scale predictions of drought-induced hydraulic failure, determine the most vulnerable areas and ecosystems to drying conditions, and asses the dynamics of forest flammability.

Identifying the drivers of fire activity’s spatio-temporal variability is challenging in densely populated and fire prone landscapes. Human usage and climate affect the local fire regime in contrasting ways. The identification of these drivers is further complicated due to the stochastic nature of fire activity. Fire regimes in Mediterranean France show contrasted spatial patterns and temporal changes at decadal scales. While overall, the number of fires decreased over the last thirty years, certain zones suffered local increases in fire activity. To describe and understand the drivers of those changes and the spatial variability, we introduced several improvements in the Firelihood model - a probabilistic framework capable of prediction fire occurrence of >1ha fires, and exceedance probabilities of 10 and 100 ha thresholds - by incorporating Land-Use Land-Cover (LULC) explanatory variables, as well as by enhancing its spatio-temporal components to account for unexplained variability in models. The novel model - fitted on a 2km-pixel grid, but relying on variables aggregated at various spatial aggregations (2, 4, 8 and 16km) - is used to explain the observed spatial patterns of fire activity during the last 27 years, as well as the regional and local changes observed between two decades with contrasted fire activities by running counterfactual scenarios. LULC variables, including road density, wildland-urban interface, or expert-based fuel type rating explain a significant part (as much as fire-weather) of the variability in fire occurrence (>1ha), thereby reducing the effect of unexplained spatial variability. The selected occurrence model uses only 2km-resolution variables, as local factors have a high influence on fire ignition and initial spread. The occurrence of larger fire (>10 ha or >100 ha) is largely driven by fire-weather, followed by unexplained spatial variability; selected models for larger fires uses a few LULC variables aggregated at 4, 8 and/or 16 km. This indicates the influence of surrounding factors on fire size extension. The spatial effect for fire occurrence presents contrasted hot and cold-spots throughout the area, while it has a clear east to west decreasing trend for fire size. Regarding temporal changes in fire activity between the two decades, changes in fire weather induced a strong increase in fire probability in many hot spots throughout the region, but this effect was overcompensated by a negative trend associated with unexplained temporal factors (and of larger magnitude than fire weather). LULC variables had negligible effect on the fire regime’s temporal trends. Moreover, an east-to-west gradient appears for the spatial trends of the larger fires, and for the temporal trends in all sizes, highlighting the increase in fire activity in the western side of the region. Those results suggest that observed temporal changes in fire activity are the result of a changing socio-economic or policy frame, probably related to reinforced suppression policies following the year 2003, and the increasing agricultural abandonment.

Understanding and predicting fuel moisture content (FMC) is a crucial prerequisite to increase our knowledge of forest’s vulnerability to fires in a changing climate. While live fuel moisture content (LFMC) is a main driver of fire behavior and activity in crown fires in forests and shrublands, it remains poorly understood and predicted, especially under extreme drought. A major reason for that is that LFMC sensitivity to climate is mediated by a range of location-specific factors, including soil characteristics and plant response to drought. Another reason is that LFMC is often simulated at the leaf scale while, from a fire danger perspective, canopy scale fuel moisture content (CFMC) is more relevant. Here we introduced a FMC module in the plant-hydraulic SurEau-Ecos model to simulate the dynamics of both LFMC and CFMC as a function of leaf water potential (psi_{Leaf}). CFMC integrates the impacts on moisture content of foliage mortality that can occur under extreme drought because of leaf embolism. SurEau-Ecos-FMC relies on two main mechanisms. The relationship between psi_{Leaf} and leaf relative water content of the symplasm is modeled through pressure volume curves. Percent loss of leaf conductance (PLC) is derived from psi_{Leaf} through vulnerability curves to cavitation and affects the dynamics of fuel moisture content in two different ways. At the leaf level, PLC dictates the dynamics of the leaf apoplasmic reservoir. At the canopy level, PLC drives the proportion of dead fuel within the canopy. SurEau-Ecos-FMC captured relatively well the temporal dynamics of LFMC measured in a Quercus ilex stand at the Puéchabon site over a three-years period. The model explained 69 % (RMSE = 4.27) and 74 % (RMSE = 4.92) of the variance in the minimum and maximum daily observed LFMC, respectively. The model was also able to capture the dynamics in CFMC resulting from leaf mortality during the summer drought. Indeed, we showed that the years when SurEau-Ecos-FMC predicted leaf mortality were the ones with the highest anomaly in NDVI. Multi-model projections of fire danger indices based on CFMC showed a general increase of fire danger over the next century. Under RCP8.5, the averaged minimum CFMC reached during the year is expected to decrease from 65 % to 32 % and the fire season length (number of day when CFMC

Anticipating future fire activity at global and regional scales is critical in a changing climate. Indeed, fire seasons are expected to lengthen and fire prone areas are expected to extend, but the magnitude, location and timing of such increases remain uncertain. Moreover, an intensification is expected during the core of the fire season of already fire-prone regions. However, quantifying seasonal and spatial impacts of climate change on fire activity is challenging. Here, we projected future fire activities in Southern France using the Firelihood model. This Bayesian probabilistic model operates on a daily basis in 8-km pixels, allowing to analyze both seasonal and spatial distributions of fire activities in a framework integrating stochasticity. Projections were computed for 13 GCM-RCM couples under two RCP scenarios (4.5 and 8.5), assuming that the only factor of change in future fire activity was the daily fire weather. The fire season was defined as the period with fire-activity level higher than the level of the 15th of July of the present period. The fire prone region corresponded to locations with fire-activity levels higher than the 2nd level of a 5-level fire-activity scale derived from numbers of fires larger than 1ha, 100ha (N1ha and N100ha) and burnt areas (BA). Simulations under RCP8.5 show that large increases in fire activity should be expected from the mid-century and that the rate of increase should then accelerate, leading to up to three-fold increases for number of fires larger than 100ha by the end of the century. In particular, all metrics except N1ha increased faster than the mean FWI and even the mean DSR. Such increases were partly caused by a massive seasonal lengthening from 45-50 days to up to 125 days, equally distributed between spring and autumn. However, the intensification during the present fire season was found to contribute slightly more to the overall increase than the lengthening itself. For example, for N100ha, the intensification would represent a 280 % increase in fire activity with respect to the present seasonal reference, whereas the lengthening outside of the present season would represent +230%. The fire prone area would increase by 168%, shifting from 22 to 56% of region total area. However, the intensification inside the already fire-prone region was found to contribute more to the increase than the spatial extension. For example, for N100ha, the intensification would represent a 190% increase with respect to the present fire-prone regional reference, whereas the extension outside of this area would represent +110%. These drastic increases provide a good indication of the potential lengthening of the fire season, spatial extension and intensification of future fire activities under RCP 8.5, all three being importantly concerned, but dominated by intensification. Extending and lengthening suppression policies may allow to mitigate projected increases, but the intensification of fire activity during the core of the fire season overwhelm current fire suppression capacities.

International audience; Mediterranean forests face an intensification of droughts caused by ongoing climate change. To improve our understanding of tree and forest responses to increasing drought, we explored over nine years, the effects of a 30% rainfall exclusion experiment on the water potential, sap velocity and primary and secondary growth of two co-occurring species (Quercus ilex and Pinus halepensis) in a French Mediterranean forest. In addition, native embolism was measured after six and nine years of exclusion onset. Water potentials decreased earlier during summer drought for both species in the rainfall exclusion plot, and to a higher extent during the drought peak for Q. ilex, involving earlier stomatal closure and reduced sap velocity. Sap velocity reduction persisted throughout the years in the exclusion plot. Outside summer the water potential difference between predawn and midday was similar between treatment which indicate that reduced water transport efficiency may be linked to decrease hydraulic conductance. Such differences were neither related to differences in xylem embolism, that remained similar between treatments, nor to change in secondary growth. In contrast primary growth measurements indicate that P. halepensis trees, and Q. ilex to a lesser extent, experienced reduction in total leaf areas in response to the rainfall exclusion. Globally, our results suggest that increase drought lead, for both species, to a decrease in sap velocity not mediated by increase embolism but rather by a reduction in primary growth. So far little conclusion can be drawn regarding the competitive advantage of one species over the other in the context of increasing drought related to climate change.

International audience; As part of the 2015 Paris climate agreement and under its Green Deal, the EU proposes to strongly rely on forests for offsetting its carbon footprint. However, planting trees should be avoided in wildfire prone and drought prone habitats, which are expanding significantly as climate warms across Europe. In favorable habitats, tree planting remains a controversial solution and the risk of using inappropriate material is high in the absence of long-term planning, unfortunately typical of the forest seed and nursery sector. The EU forest tree planting strategy should pay close attention to local land-use issues, to within- and among-species genetic diversity and should adopt relevant, pluri-annual funding schemes and planting contracts rather than letting market opportunities govern the future of forest tree plantations.

International audience; Global warming is expected to increase droughts and heatwaves, and consequently fire danger in southern Europe in the forthcoming decades. However, an assessment of the uncertainties associated with this general trend at regional scales, relevant to decision-making, is still missing. This study aims at assessing potential climate change impacts on fire danger over France through the projection of the widely used Fire Weather Index (FWI) and at quantifying the different sources of climate-driven uncertainty associated with these projections. We used daily climate experiments covering the 1995-2098 period under two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) provided by the EURO-CORDEX initiative. Our results show an overall increase in FWI throughout the century, with the largest absolute increases in the Mediterranean area. Model uncertainty was very high in western France, previously identified as a potential fire-prone region under future climate. In contrast, large increases in FWI in the Mediterranean area showed low uncertainty across models. Besides, analyzing the natural variability of FWI revealed that extreme years under present-day climate could become much more frequent by the end of the century. The FWI is projected to emerge from the background of natural variability by mid-twenty-first century with a summer elevated fire danger three times more likely when summer temperature anomaly exceeds + 2 degrees C.

Data are available in PROMÉTHÉE2: Forest fires database for Mediterranean area in France, and can be extracted at https://www.promethee.com/en/incendies using the following selection criteria: fire type, Forêt; date range, 1 January 1995 to 31 December 2018.; International audience; Modeling wildfire activity is crucial for informing science-based risk management and understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of fire-prone ecosystems worldwide. Models help disentangle the relative influences of different factors, understand wildfire predictability, and provide insights into specific events. Here, we develop Firelihood, a two-component, Bayesian, hierarchically structured, probabilistic model of daily fire activity, which is modeled as the outcome of a marked point process: individual fires are the points (occurrence component), and fire sizes are the marks (size component). The space-time Poisson model for occurrence is adjusted to gridded fire counts using the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) combined with the stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) approach. The size model is based on piecewise-estimated Pareto and generalized Pareto distributions, adjusted with INLA. The Fire Weather Index (FWI) and forest area are the main explanatory variables. Temporal and spatial residuals are included to improve the consistency of the relationship between weather and fire occurrence. The posterior distribution of the Bayesian model provided 1,000 replications of fire activity that were compared with observations at various temporal and spatial scales in Mediterranean France. The number of fires larger than 1 ha across the region was coarsely reproduced at the daily scale, and was more accurately predicted on a weekly basis or longer. The regional weekly total number of larger fires (10-100 ha) was predicted as well, but the accuracy degraded with size, as the model uncertainty increased with event rareness. Local predictions of fire numbers or burned areas also required a longer aggregation period to maintain model accuracy. The estimation of fires larger than 1 ha was also consistent with observations during the extreme fire season of the 2003 unprecedented heat wave, but the model systematically underrepresented large fires and burned areas, which suggests that the FWI does not consistently rate the actual danger of large fire occurrence during heat waves. Firelihood enabled a novel analysis of the stochasticity underlying fire hazard, and offers a variety of applications, including fire hazard predictions for management and projections in the context of climate change.

Key message A new process-based model,SurEau, is described. It predicts the risk of xylem hydraulic failure under drought. Context The increase in drought intensity due to climate change will accentuate the risk of tree mortality. But very few process-based models are currently able to predict this mortality risk. Aims We describe the operating principle of a new mechanistic model SurEau that computes the water balance, water relations, and hydraulics of a plant under extreme drought. Methods SurEau is based on the formalization of key physiological processes of plant response to water stress. The hydraulic and hydric functioning of the plant is at the core of this model, which focuses on both water flows (i.e., hydraulic) and water pools (i.e., hydric) using variable hydraulic conductances. The model considers the elementary flow of water from the soil to the atmosphere through different plant organs that are described by their symplasmic and apoplasmic compartments. For each organ, the symplasm is described by a pressure-volume curve and the apoplasm by its vulnerability curve to cavitation. The model is evaluated on mature oak trees exposed to water stress. Results On the tested oak trees, the model captures well the observed soil water balance, water relations, and level of embolism. A sensitivity analysis reveals that the level of embolism is strongly determined by air VPD and key physiological traits such as cuticular transpiration, resistance to cavitation, and leaf area. Conclusion The process-based SurEau model offers new opportunities to evaluate how different species or genotypes will respond to future climatic conditions.

Climate change in the Mediterranean region leads to an intensification of summer droughts. These episodes of extreme water stress threaten the survival of tree species and, by the same token, would affect the structure and ecosystem services of woodlands. Indeed, in conditions of prolonged and intense drought, one of the major risks for trees is the hydraulic failure due to high embolism level. Xylem embolism risk depends essentially on various leaf and hydraulic traits including (i) the vulnerability of their xylem to cavitation, (ii) the turgor loss point (a surrogate for stomatal control) and (iii) their cuticular transpiration (gmin). The two former traits can be used to compute hydraulic safety margins (HSM). In order to assess whether trees will survive future climatic conditions, it is necessary to quantify and assess the plasticity of these traits to intensified drought. In this study, we used three rainfall exclusion experiments established in mature forests in south-eastern France (Font-blanche, Puéchabon and O3HP experimental sites) to measure these traits and evaluate their ability to adjust to aggravated drought conditions for three Mediterranean widespread species: Quercus ilex, Quercus Pubescens, and Pinus halepensis. We performed pressure-volume curves of trees from rainfall exclusion and control plots to see if adjustments of gmin and leaf hydraulic traits involved in stomatal regulation occurred in these three species. Using the optical method and cavitron, we also quantified the plasticity of xylem vulnerability to cavitation by comparing the values of water potential leading to a 50% reduction in plant hydraulic conductance (P50). Our results show that Quercus pubescens has the lowest HSM while Quercus ilex has the highest. In addition, gmin is higher for Quercus pubescens than for the other two species. All together these results suggest that Quercus pubescens is the most vulnerable to drought among the three studied. Globally, for most traits and species no significant difference was found between treatments. The only exception was for Quercus ilex that exhibited lower turgor loss point (Ψtlp) in the dry treatment. Drought acclimation for these species may rather depend on other traits, such as leaf area reduction or rooting depth. To integrate the role of these traits to estimate the historic and future mortality risk for these species, the use of hydraulic based models will be of interest.

International audience; Plant transpiration is a major component of water fluxes in the critical zone, which needs to be better characterized to improve our ability to understand and model the hydrological cycle. In water-limited ecosystems such as those encountered on karst environments, climate-induced changes in transpiration are expected to be strongly influenced by the ability of the vegetation cover to resist or adapt to drought. However, because of the high heterogeneity of karst environments, the amount of water available for trees can change within a stand, which may lead to significant differences in drought vulnerability resistance between trees of the same species. So far it is not known if soil and subsoil environment influence the magnitude of deep water extraction, at the intra-specific scale. Here, we investigate the variability in deep water extraction for six individual Quercus ilex trees growing on a karst substrate in a Mediterranean forest. We combined three approaches: (i) electrical resistivity tomography to determine the variability of soil/subsoil characteristics, (ii) isotope tracing to determine the origin of water transpired by plants, and (iii) predawn and midday leaf water potential (Ψ) to assess the trees’ water stress and transpiration regulation. Along the summer season, deep water extraction increased with drought intensity. Deep water use varies between individuals and according to drought intensity. At moderate water stress levels, we found no significant relationship between the origin of xylem water and soil/subsoil characteristics or individual stress level. However, at the peak of the drought (average predawn Ψ < −2 MPa), individuals that had the least total available water in soil/subsoil (0–2 m) relied more on deep water and were also subject to less water stress. These results suggest that trees with less favorable soil/subsoil conditions (i.e. low water retention capacity) in the near surface (0–2 m) adapt their root systems to exploit deep water reserves more intensively so as to enhance their drought tolerance, while trees with more favorable surface conditions exhibit greater water stress and may be more vulnerable to extreme droughts because of a lower root development in deeper horizons.

International audience; Several plant chemical traits (cellulose, tannins and terpenes) have been related to plant flammability. Contrastingly, no study has focused on the relationship between plant flammability and physico-chemical leaf litter traits with a focus on cuticular wax concentration. This study focuses on alkane cuticular waxes because of their relatively low flash point and storage in the cuticle of all vascular plant species. The sclerophyllous species Quercus coccifera is the model species since it is the main shrub species in the Mediterranean basin and all previously investigated sclerophyllous species feature a high cuticular wax content. Litter was collected in a Mediterranean garrigue where Q. coccifera grows under natural drought and recurrent aggravated drought (consisting of 5.5 years of rain restriction). These different drought conditions were expected to imply different alkane wax concentrations since one of the major roles of cuticular waxes is evapotranspiration limitation during drought. Litter flammability was assessed through ignition delay, flame residence time and flame height (assessed using an epiradiator) and gross heat of combustion (using an adiabatic bomb calorimeter). Results showed that the higher cuticular alkane concentrations reached under aggravated drought were associated with an increased leaf litter flammability as expected. These results confirm that all potentially flammable organic metabolites (terpenes as previously reported in other studies, and cuticular alkane waxes) are drivers of vegetation flammability. It is suggested that Q. coccifera flammability (considered as low to moderate), could increase under a drier scenario in the Mediterranean area. We hypothesize that fire severity would accordingly be intensified in shrubs dominated by this sclerophyllous species without necessarily increasing vulnerability of Q. coccifera to fire since this is a resprouter species after fire and is one of the main pioneer species during post-fire vegetation succession.

Water content in living vegetation (or live fuel moisture content, LFMC), is increasingly recognized as a key factor linked to vegetation mortality and wildfire ignition and spread. Most often, empirical indices are used as surrogates for direct LFMC measurements.In this paper, we explore the functional and ecophysiological drivers of LFMC during drought at the leaf and canopy scale using the SurEau-Ecos model, and a three years dataset of leaf and canopy scale measurements on a mature Quercus ilex forest, including an extreme drought. The model is based on forest hydrology and plant hydraulics and allows to simulate temporal variations of water potential and content at a daily time step. At leaf level, it simulates the relationship between water potential and water content by separating the apoplasm and the symplasm. Symplasm water content is modeled using the pressure volume curve theory, and apoplasm water content is modelled using the xylem vulnerability to cavitation. Fuel moisture content was upscaled to the canopy level by accounting for foliage mortality estimated from drought induced cavitation.The model was parameterized either with site-measured traits or using a calibration procedure, and compared with water potential and LFMC measured at leaf level, and NDVI variation measured at canopy level and taken as a surrogate for foliage mortality.At leaf level, LFMC prediction using measured hydraulic traits could be improved by considering year-to-year osmotic adjustments. At canopy level, foliage mortality due to drought induced cavitation was a key driver of LFMC decline during the most extreme drought.A sensitivity analysis showed that parameters driving soil water balance (leaf area index, soil water capacity, and regulation of transpiration) and parameters determining pressure volume curves are key traits driving LFMC dynamics at leaf level. At the canopy level, parameters that drives hydraulic failure were the most sensitive and included, both soil water balance parameters and hydraulic traits (the leaf vulnerability to cavitation) were the main drivers of LFMC decline during extreme drought.We also showed that under normal historic weather conditions, most variation of LFMC are linked to reversible symplasm dehydration, however under future, hotter and dryer conditions, most variations are due to the decline canopy of LFMC driven by foliage mortality.

Modelling wildfire activity is crucial for informing science-based risk management and understanding fire-prone ecosystem functioning worldwide. Models also help to disentangle the relative roles of different factors, to understand wildfire predictability or to provide insights into specific events.Here, we develop a two-component Bayesian hierarchically-structured probabilistic model of daily fire activity, which are modelled as the outcome of a marked point process in which individual fires are the points (occurrence component) and the fire sizes are the marks (size component). The space-time Poisson model for occurrence is adjusted to gridded fire counts using the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) combined with the Stochastic Partial Differential Equation (SPDE) approach. The size model is based on piecewise-estimated Pareto and Generalized-Pareto distributions, also adjusted with INLA. The Fire Weather Index (FWI) and Forest Area are the main explanatory variables. Seasonal and spatial residuals as well as a post-2003 effect are included to improve the consistency of the relationship between climate and fire occurrence, in accordance with parsimonious criteria.A set of 1000 simulations of the posterior model of fire activity is evaluated at various temporal and spatial scales in Mediterranean France. The number of escaped fires (≥1ha) across the region can be coarsely reproduced at the daily scale, and is more accurately predicted on a weekly basis or longer. The regional weekly total number of larger fires (10 to 100 ha) can be predicted as well, but the accuracy decays with size, as the model uncertainty increases with event rareness. Local predictions of fire numbers or burnt areas likewise require a longer aggregation period to maintain model accuracy.Regarding the year 2003 -which was characterized by an extreme burnt area in France associated with a heat wave-, the estimation of the number of escaped fires was consistent with observations, but the model systematically underrepresents larger fires and burnt areas, which suggests that the FWI does not consistently rate the danger of large fire occurrence during heat waves.Our study sheds new light on the stochastic processes underlying fire hazard, and is promising for predicting and projecting future fire hazard in the context of climate change.

SummaryWe describe the operating principle of the detailed version of the soil-plant-atmosphere model SurEau that allows, among other things, to predict the risk of hydraulic failure under extreme drought. It is based on the formalization of key physiological processes of plant response to water stress. The hydraulic functioning of the plant is at the core of this model, which focuses on both water flows and water pools using variable hydraulic conductances. The model considers the elementary flow of water from the soil to the atmosphere through different plant organs (roots, trunk branches, leaves and buds) that are described by their symplasm and their apoplasm compartments. Within each organ the flow of water between the apoplasm and the symplasm is also represented; as well as the flow outside the system, from the symplasm of each organ to the atmosphere, through the cuticular conductance. For each organ, the symplasm is described by a pressure volume curves and the apoplasm by the vulnerability curve to cavitation of the xylem. The model can thus compute the loss of conductance caused by cavitation, a leading mechanisms of plant desiccation and drought-induced mortality. Some example simulations are shown to illustrate how the model works.

Wildfire is the main disturbance in forested ecosystems of southern Europe and is due to complex interactions between climate-weather, fuels and people. Warmer and drier conditions projected in this region are expected to profoundly affect wildfires, which will impact ecosystems and humans. We review the scientific literature addressing the assessment of climate change impacts on wildfires in southern Europe, with a twofold objective: (i) report the trends in wildfire danger and activity projected under warming climate in southern Europe and (ii) discuss the limitations of wildfire projections under the specific biogeographical context of southern Europe.We identified 22 projection studies that examined future wildfire danger or wildfire activity at local, regional or continental scale. Under the scenario with the highest greenhouse gas emissions, we found that projections studies estimate an increase in future fire danger and burnt areas varying, on average, from 2 to 4 % and from 15 to 25 % per decade, respectively. Fire-prone area expansion to the north and to Mediterranean mountains is a concern, while climate-induced burnt area increase might be limited by fuel availability in the most arid areas. While all studies agreed on the direction of changes, further comparisons on the magnitude of increase remained challenging because of heterogeneous methodological choices between projections studies (climate models, projection period, spatial scale and fire metrics). We then described three main sources of uncertainty that may affect the reliability of wildfire projections: climate projections, climate-fire models, and the influences of fuel load/structure and human related factors on the climate-fire relationships. We finally suggest research directions to address some of these issues for the purpose of refining fire danger and fire activity projections in southern Europe.

International audience; 8 Aims: Soil temperature and moisture impact plants not only during growth and survival but also 9 during seed germination and interaction of seeds with the chemical environment. The quantitative 10 impacts of either temperature and moisture or plant specialized metabolites (PSM) on germination 11 are widely studied. However, the combined effect of PSM and moisture or temperature on 12 germination remains poorly understood. 13 Methods: We addressed this issue by studying the effect of PSM extracted from four Mediterranean 14 woody plants on germination speed and final percentages of a subordinate herbaceous plant, Linum 15 perenne. 16 Results: By using hydro-and thermal time threshold models, we show how PSM interact with 17 temperature and moisture levels to limit germination at dry and upper thermal limits, with the 18 magnitude of effects depending on the source plant. PSM effects on germination, also observed on 19 natural soils, persisted after their removal from the seed environment. 20 Conclusions: We conclude that the impact of climate change on reproduction of herbaceous plants 21 can be modulated by effects of PSM from woody plants, which might exacerbate the negative 22 impacts of global changes on biodiversity. 23

Wildfire is the main disturbance in forested ecosystems of southern Europe and is due to complex interactions between climate-weather, fuels and people. Warmer and drier conditions projected in this region are expected to profoundly affect wildfires, which will impact ecosystems and humans. We review the scientific literature addressing the assessment of climate change impacts on wildfires in southern Europe, with a twofold objective: (i) report the trends in wildfire danger and activity projected under warming climate in southern Europe and (ii) discuss the limitations of wildfire projections under the specific biogeographical context of southern Europe.We identified 22 projection studies that examined future wildfire danger or wildfire activity at local, regional or continental scale. Under the scenario with the highest greenhouse gas emissions, we found that projections studies estimate an increase in future fire danger and burnt areas varying, on average, from 2 to 4 % and from 15 to 25 % per decade, respectively. Fire-prone area expansion to the north and to Mediterranean mountains is a concern, while climate-induced burnt area increase might be limited by fuel availability in the most arid areas. While all studies agreed on the direction of changes, further comparisons on the magnitude of increase remained challenging because of heterogeneous methodological choices between projections studies (climate models, projection period, spatial scale and fire metrics). We then described three main sources of uncertainty that may affect the reliability of wildfire projections: climate projections, climate-fire models, and the influences of fuel load/structure and human related factors on the climate-fire relationships. We finally suggest research directions to address some of these issues for the purpose of refining fire danger and fire activity projections in southern Europe.

Changes in wildfire activity in the Mediterranean area over recent decades increase the need for a better understanding of the fire weather relationships and for the development of reliable models to improve fire danger prediction. This study analyses daily synoptic and local weather conditions associated with the occurrence of summer large fires (LFs) in Mediterranean France during recent decades (1973-2013). The links between large fire occurrence and synoptic conditions are analysed with composites of sea level pressure and winds at 925 hPa and a parsimonious synoptic weather type (WT) classification based on these variables. A cluster analysis is used to identify five homogeneous regions with similar inter-annual variations in lire activity. Our results reveal a dominant wind-driven lire regime, i.e. wind conditions are the main factor explaining why fire become large, though substantial temporal and spatial variations are observed. Thus, most LFs occur under the `Atlantic Ridge' WT that combines an anticyclonic ridge over eastern Atlantic and a cyclonic anomaly stretched from the North Sea to Central/Eastern Europe and Mediterranean basin. This pattern is significantly related at local scale to fast continental dry winds. By contrast, only few LFs occur under WT's characterized by anomalously warm local-scale conditions ('Blocking'), except under very warm and dry conditions such as during the outstanding 2003 summer. These results offer promising developments for the improvement of fire danger predictions and operational management.

According to climate projections, global warming is associated with increasing temperatures and dry spells in some parts of the world, especially the Mediterranean area. However, it is quite challenging for the scientific community to assess the intensity of these changes, because (i) the trend relies on the greenhouse gases (GHG) emission scenario and (ii) fire occurrence depends on multiple factors (including climate, but not only). A proper assessment of the trend in terms of fire activity still lacks, especially for the French territory. Our study refines traditional approaches of fire risk projection under climate change by translating a danger index into potential fire activity (fire occurrence above 1 ha and burnt area).

International audience; Identifying the links between fire danger metrics and fire activity is critical in various operational and research fields. A common methodology consists in analysing the relationship between cumulative burnt areas and fire danger metrics. Building on this approach, it has been proposed that fuel moisture content (FMC) drives fire activity in some ecosystems through between one and three breakpoints corresponding to the onset or saturation of fire activity. We demonstrate, through two different approaches, that this methodology is incorrect, because it is biased by the frequency distribution of FMC values. From comparison with a neutral fire distribution and correction for the frequency bias, we show that cumulative burnt area breakpoints are spurious: an upper breakpoint might exist (but would be higher than expected), while no evidence of reduced fire danger was detected for the lowest values of FMC (on the contrary, a secondary increase was detected). Our findings clearly suggest that previous breakpoints resulting from this methodology should be considered with caution, as erroneous conclusions regarding fire danger breakpoints could have major consequences for both fire safety and science outcomes. Finally, we discuss widespread confusion between fire danger breakpoints and fire danger levels, which explains most previous erroneous conclusions.

International audience; Live fuel moisture content (LFMC) influences fire activity at landscape scale and fire behaviour in laboratory experiments. However, field evidence linking LFMC to fire behaviour are very limited, despite numerous field experiments. In this study, we reanalyse a shrubland fire dataset with a special focus on LFMC to investigate this counterintuitive outcome. We found that this controversy might result from three causes. First, the range of experimental LFMC data was too moist to reveal a significant effect with the widespread exponential or power functions. Indeed, LFMC exhibited a strong effect below 100%, but marginal above this threshold, contrary to these functions. Second, we found that the LFMC significance was unlikely when the number of fire experiments was smaller than 40. Finally, an analysis suggested that 10 to 15% measurement error -arising from the estimation of environmental variables from field measurements -could lead to an underestimation by 30% of the LFMC effect. The LFMC effect in field experiments is thus stronger than previously reported in the range of LFMC occurring during the French fire season and in accordance with observations at different scales. This highlights the need to improve our understanding of the relationship between LFMC and fire behaviour to refine fire-danger predictions.

International audience; According to climate projections, global warming is associated with increasing temperatures and dry spells in some parts of the world, especially the Mediterranean area. This climate change has already triggered increases in wildfire danger and fire season length in Southern Europe and is expected to amplify in the forthcoming decades. However, it is quite challenging for the scientific community to assess the intensity of these changes, because (i) the trend relies on the greenhouse gases (GHG) emission scenario and (ii) fire occurrence depends on multiple factors (including climate, but not only). A proper assessment of the trend in terms of fire occurrence and of uncertainties associated with this increasing trend, still lacks, especially for the French territory. Our study refines traditional approaches of fire risk projection under climate change on two aspects: (i) the impact of climate prediction uncertainties on the prediction of fire danger, and (ii) the translation of a danger index into a fire occurrence (per size classes).

International audience; Live Fuel Moisture Content (LFMC) is a critical variable affecting fire ignition, behavior and severity in many ecosystems. Although the use of meteorological drought indices as proxies for LFMC is a straightforward and widespread approach, it is largely unknown whether it can provide reliable estimates of LFMC, either for local or spatial applications. We address this issue by evaluating the capacity of drought indices to predict LFMC quantitative variations and critical values. LFMC observations used for reference were measured on six different Mediterranean shrub species for 15 years in 20 different sites in Southern France. Six drought indices were evaluated: the Duff Moisture Code (DMC) and Drought Code (DC) of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System, the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), the Nesterov Index (NI) and the Relative Water Content (RWC) of the soil derived from a forest water balance model for low (80 mm) and high (160 mm) field capacities. The species were classified in two groups according to their seasonal variability: high and low responding species. We found large differences in the capacity of drought indices to predict LFMC, with indices that simulate long-term drought dynamics (DC, RWC and KBDI) generally performing better than others (NI and DMC). Once calibrated at stand scale, drought indices showed a good potential for predicting LFMC of high responding species, although large variations between sites were observed. In contrast, spatial predictability was limited with a RMSE and R2 on the order of 20% and 0.3, respectively (for high responding species). Our results suggest that drought indices should therefore be used with caution for spatial applications in wildfire research and operational fire management. Because they can explicitly consider environmental (soil, climate) and biological (species traits related to dehydration) factors, mechanistic indices have a great potential to improve LFMC predictions.

The original version of this article has been corrected to reflect Open Access. Additionally, this correction stands to correct what was a broken hyperlink in the key message section of the article as well as an error related to the replacement of Supplementary File 13595_2018_729_MOESM2_ESM.xlsx.

International audience; No abstract available

Inter-individual variability of tree drought responses within a stand has received little attention. Here we explore whether the spatial variations in soil/subsoil properties assessed through electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) could explain variations in drought response traits among trees. We used ERT to compute the percent variation in resistivity (PVR) between dry and wet conditions as an indicator of spatial variability in total available water content. PVR was computed in two different depth ranges (0-2 and 2-5 m) for eleven Quercus ilex stools in a Mediterranean forest stand. PVR values were compared to biological traits, including tree water status (predawn water potential (Ψ)), leaf traits (δ 13 C, leaf mass area (LMA)), and canopy defoliation measured after intense drought. We found significant correlations between PVR and biological variables. For Ψ , the nature and strength of the correlations vary according to the level of drought intensity. The correlation between Ψ and PVR was positive during well-watered conditions in the upper layer (0-2 m) and during water-limited conditions in the deeper layer (2-5 m). During most severe droughts, however, the Ψ was negatively correlated with PVR in the upper layer. Trees with lower PVR in the upper layer were also associated with water use efficiency (higher δ 13 C), higher LMA, and a lower level of defoliation after extreme drought. Overall, our results indicate that local differences in soil/subsoil properties affect tree response to drought and suggest that less favorable soil/subsoil conditions (lower PVR) can lead to lower water stress during the driest period and to lower defoliation after extreme drought. Plausible explanations for this better acclimation include higher stomatal regulation and improved deep soil and subsoil water exploration by trees located in more adverse conditions. We encourage the development of ERT in ecological studies to further explore the interrelated relationships between soil/subsoil, climate, and tree functioning.

International audience

International audience; Identifying the factors that drive the spatial distribution of fires is one of the most challenging issues facing fire science in a changing world. We investigated the relative influence of humans, land cover and weather on the regional distribution of fires in a Mediterranean region using boosted regression trees and a set of seven explanatory variables. The spatial pattern of fire weather, which is seldom accounted for in regional models, was estimated using a semi-mechanistic approach and expressed as the length of the fire weather season. We found that the drivers of the spatial distribution of fires followed a fire size-dependent pattern in which human activities and settlements mainly determined the distribution of all fires whereas the continuity and type of fuels mainly controlled the location of the largest fires. The spatial structure of fire weather was estimated to be responsible for an average of 25% of the spatial patterns of fires, suggesting that climate change may directly affect the spatial patterns of fire hazard in the near future. These results enhance our understanding of long-term controls of the spatial distribution of wildfires and predictive maps of fire hazard provide useful information for fire management actions.

Increasing drought conditions under global warming are expected to alter the frequency and distribution of large, high intensity wildfires. Yet, little is known regarding how it will affect fire weather and translate into wildfire behaviour. Here, we analysed the climatology of extreme wildfires that occurred during the exceptionally dry summers of 2003 and 2016 in Mediterranean France. We identified two distinct shifts in fire climatology towards fire weather spaces that had not been explored before, and which result from specific interactions between the types of drought and the types of fire. In 2016, a long-lasting press drought intensified wind-driven fires. In 2003, a hot drought combining a heatwave with a press drought intensified heat-driven fires. Our findings highlight that increasing drought conditions projected by climate change scenarios might affect the dryness of fuel compartments and create several new generations of wildfire overwhelming fire suppression capacities.