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1. How Extreme Were Daily Global Temperatures in 2023 and Early 2024?

Author

Julien Cattiaux, Aurélien Ribes, and Enora Cariou

Subjects
global temperature, extreme event, climate change, event attribution, climate monitoring, Geophysics. Cosmic physics, QC801-809
Abstract

Abstract Global temperatures were exceptionally high in 2023/24. Every month from June 2023 to June 2024 set a new record, and September shattered the previous record by 0.5°C. The 2023 annual average approached 1.5°C above pre‐industrial levels. This results from both long‐term warming and internal variability, with the occurrence of an El Niño episode. However the amplitude of the 2023/24 anomalies was remarkable and surprised the scientific community. Here we analyze the rarity of 2023/24 global temperatures from a climate perspective. We show that a ‘normal’ year 2023 would have roughly equaled the previous annual record, and that the most extreme events of 2023/24 rank among the most extreme since 1940. Our analysis suggests that the 2023/24 event can be reconciled with the long‐term trend and an intense, but not implausible, peak of internal variability.

Published
2024
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2. Summer Deep Depressions Increase Over the Eastern North Atlantic

Author

Fabio D'Andrea, Jean‐Philippe Duvel, Gwendal Rivière, Robert Vautard, Christophe Cassou, Julien Cattiaux, Dim Coumou, Davide Faranda, Tamara Happé, Aglaé Jézéquel, Aurelien Ribes, and Pascal Yiou

Subjects
Geophysics. Cosmic physics, QC801-809
Abstract

Abstract Mid‐tropospheric deep depressions in summer over the North Atlantic are shown to have strongly increased in the eastern and strongly decreased in the western North Atlantic region. This evolution is linked to a change in baroclinicity in the west of the North Atlantic ocean and over the North American coast, likely due to the increased surface temperature there. Deep depressions in the Eastern North Atlantic are linked to a temperature pattern typical of extreme heat events in the region. The same analysis is applied to a sample of CMIP6 model outputs, and no such trends are found. This study suggests a link between the observed increase of summer extreme heat events in the region and the increase of the number of Atlantic depressions. The failure of CMIP6 models to reproduce these events can consequently also reside in an incorrect reproduction of this specific feature of midlatitude atmospheric dynamics.

Published
2024
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3. Heat extremes in Western Europe increasing faster than simulated due to atmospheric circulation trends

Author

Robert Vautard, Julien Cattiaux, Tamara Happé, Jitendra Singh, Rémy Bonnet, Christophe Cassou, Dim Coumou, Fabio D’Andrea, Davide Faranda, Erich Fischer, Aurélien Ribes, Sebastian Sippel, and Pascal Yiou

Subjects
Science
Abstract

Abstract Over the last 70 years, extreme heat has been increasing at a disproportionate rate in Western Europe, compared to climate model simulations. This mismatch is not well understood. Here, we show that a substantial fraction (0.8 °C [0.2°−1.4 °C] of 3.4 °C per global warming degree) of the heat extremes trend is induced by atmospheric circulation changes, through more frequent southerly flows over Western Europe. In the 170 available simulations from 32 different models that we analyzed, including 3 large model ensembles, none have a circulation-induced heat trend as large as observed. This can be due to underestimated circulation response to external forcing, or to a systematic underestimation of low-frequency variability, or both. The former implies that future projections are too conservative, the latter that we are left with deep uncertainty regarding the pace of future summer heat in Europe. This calls for caution when interpreting climate projections of heat extremes over Western Europe, in view of adaptation to heat waves.

Published
2023
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4. The Polar Stratosphere as an Arbiter of the Projected Tropical Versus Polar Tug of War

Author

Yannick Peings, Julien Cattiaux, and Gudrun Magnusdottir

Subjects
tropics versus Arctic tug of war, Arctic amplification, climate scenarios, North Atlantic atmospheric circulation, jet stream, stratosphere‐troposphere coupling, Geophysics. Cosmic physics, QC801-809
Abstract

Abstract This study explores the “tug of war” between the effects of Arctic amplification (“AA”) and upper‐troposphere tropical warming (“UTW”) on the response of the future North Atlantic atmospheric circulation. The late 21st century AA and UTW temperature anomalies are imposed in a high‐top atmospheric model by nudging the temperature. Two sets of experiments are performed, with and without feedback of the polar stratosphere to highlight its role in the response to UTW, AA, and both combined. With interactive polar stratosphere, UTW forces an equatorward shift of the eddy‐driven jet that reinforces the response to AA. However, when the polar stratosphere feedback is suppressed, the response to UTW is opposite and reflects the previously identified tug of war between the effects of UTW and AA in midlatitudes. This study highlights that the polar stratosphere is a key component for future changes in the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation and that it must be accurately represented in climate change scenarios.

Published
2019
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5. The CNRM Global Atmosphere Model ARPEGE‐Climat 6.3: Description and Evaluation

Author

Romain Roehrig, Isabelle Beau, David Saint‐Martin, Antoinette Alias, Bertrand Decharme, Jean‐François Guérémy, Aurore Voldoire, Ahmat Younous Abdel‐Lathif, Eric Bazile, Sophie Belamari, Sebastien Blein, Dominique Bouniol, Yves Bouteloup, Julien Cattiaux, Fabrice Chauvin, Matthieu Chevallier, Jeanne Colin, Hervé Douville, Pascal Marquet, Martine Michou, Pierre Nabat, Thomas Oudar, Philippe Peyrillé, Jean‐Marcel Piriou, David Salas y Mélia, Roland Séférian, and Stéphane Sénési

Subjects
Physical geography, GB3-5030, Oceanography, GC1-1581
Abstract

Abstract The present study describes the atmospheric component of the sixth‐generation climate models of the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM), namely, ARPEGE‐Climat 6.3. It builds up on more than a decade of model development and tuning efforts, which led to major updates of its moist physics. The vertical resolution has also been significantly increased, both in the boundary layer and in the stratosphere. ARPEGE‐Climat 6.3 is now coupled to the new version (8.0) of the SURFace EXternalisée (SURFEX) surface model, in which several new features (e.g., floodplains, aquifers, and snow processes) improve the water cycle realism. The model calibration is discussed in depth. An amip‐type experiment, in which the sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations are prescribed, and following the CMIP6 protocol, is extensively evaluated, in terms of climate mean state and variability. ARPEGE‐Climat 6.3 is shown to improve over its previous version (5.1) by many climate features. Major improvements include the top‐of‐atmosphere and surface energy budgets in their various components (shortwave and longwave, total and clear sky), cloud cover, near‐surface temperature, precipitation climatology and daily‐mean distribution, and water discharges at the outlet of major rivers. In contrast, clouds over subtropical stratocumulus decks, several dynamical variables (sea level pressure, 500‐hPa geopotential height), are still significantly biased. The tropical intraseasonal variability and diurnal cycle of precipitation, though improved, remained area of concerns for further model improvement. New biases also emerge, such as a lack of precipitation over several tropical continental areas. Within the CMIP6 context, ARPEGE‐Climat 6.3 is the atmospheric component of CNRM‐CM6‐1 and CNRM‐ESM2‐1.

Published
2020
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6. Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Inhabited Areas of the SWIO Basin at Present and Future Horizons. Part 2: Modeling Component of the Research Program RENOVRISK-CYCLONE

Author

Christelle Barthe, Olivier Bousquet, Soline Bielli, Pierre Tulet, Joris Pianezze, Marine Claeys, Chia-Lun Tsai, Callum Thompson, François Bonnardot, Fabrice Chauvin, Julien Cattiaux, Marie-Noëlle Bouin, Vincent Amelie, Guilhem Barruol, Radiance Calmer, Stéphane Ciccione, Emmanuel Cordier, Quoc-Phi Duong, Jonathan Durand, Frauke Fleischer-Dogley, Romain Husson, Edouard Lees, Sylvie Malardel, Nicolas Marquestaut, Alberto Mavume, Dominique Mékiès, Alexis Mouche, Navalona Manitriniana Ravoson, Bruno Razafindradina, Elisa Rindraharisaona, Gregory Roberts, Manvendra Singh, Lova Zakariasy, and Jonas Zucule

Subjects
tropical cyclone, south-west Indian ocean, cloud-resolving model, ocean–wave–atmosphere coupling, climate modeling, Meteorology. Climatology, QC851-999
Abstract

The ReNovRisk-Cyclone program aimed at developing an observation network in the south-west Indian ocean (SWIO) in close synergy with the implementation of numerical tools to model and analyze the impacts of tropical cyclones (TC) in the present and in a context of climate change. This paper addresses the modeling part of the program. First, a unique coupled system to simulate TCs in the SWIO is developed. The ocean–wave–atmosphere coupling is considered along with a coherent coupling between sea surface state, wind field, aerosol, microphysics, and radiation. This coupled system is illustrated through several simulations of TCs: the impact of air–sea flux parameterizations on the evolution of TC Fantala is examined, the full coupling developed during the program is illustrated on TC Idai, and the potential of novel observations like space-borne synthetic aperture radar and sea turtles to validate the atmosphere and ocean models is presented with TC Herold. Secondly, the evolution of cyclonic activity in the SWIO during the second half of the 21st century is assessed. It was addressed both using climate simulation and through the implementation of a pseudo global warming method in the high-resolution coupled modeling platform. Our results suggest that the Mascarene Archipelago should experience an increase of TC related hazards in the medium term.

Published
2021
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7. Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Inhabited Areas of the SWIO Basin at Present and Future Horizons. Part 1: Overview and Observing Component of the Research Project RENOVRISK-CYCLONE

Author

Olivier Bousquet, Guilhem Barruol, Emmanuel Cordier, Christelle Barthe, Soline Bielli, Radiance Calmer, Elisa Rindraharisaona, Gregory Roberts, Pierre Tulet, Vincent Amelie, Frauke Fleischer-Dogley, Alberto Mavume, Jonas Zucule, Lova Zakariasy, Bruno Razafindradina, François Bonnardot, Manvendra Singh, Edouard Lees, Jonathan Durand, Dominique Mekies, Marine Claeys, Joris Pianezze, Callum Thompson, Chia-Lun Tsai, Romain Husson, Alexis Mouche, Stephane Ciccione, Julien Cattiaux, Fabrice Chauvin, and Nicolas Marquestaut

Subjects
tropical cyclone, south-west Indian Ocean, gliders, unmanned airborne system, biologging, sea turtles, Meteorology. Climatology, QC851-999
Abstract

The international research program “ReNovRisk-CYCLONE” (RNR-CYC, 2017–2021) directly involves 20 partners from 5 countries of the south-west Indian-Ocean. It aims at improving the observation and modelling of tropical cyclones in the south-west Indian Ocean, as well as to foster regional cooperation and improve public policies adapted to present and future tropical cyclones risk in this cyclonic basin. This paper describes the structure and main objectives of this ambitious research project, with emphasis on its observing components, which allowed integrating numbers of innovative atmospheric and oceanic observations (sea-turtle borne and seismic data, unmanned airborne system, ocean gliders), as well as combining standard and original methods (radiosoundings and global navigation satellite system (GNSS) atmospheric soundings, seismic and in-situ swell sampling, drone and satellite imaging) to support research on tropical cyclones from the local to the basin-scale.

Published
2021
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8. Recent Trends in the Recurrence of North Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation Patterns

Author

Pascal Yiou, Julien Cattiaux, Aurélien Ribes, Robert Vautard, and Mathieu Vrac

Subjects
Electronic computers. Computer science, QA75.5-76.95
Abstract

A few types of extreme climate events in the North Atlantic region, such as heatwaves, cold spells, or high cumulated precipitation, are connected to the recurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns. Understanding those extreme events requires assessing long-term trends of the atmospheric circulation. This paper presents a set of diagnostics of the intra- and interannual recurrence of atmospheric patterns. Those diagnostics are devised to detect trends in the stability of the circulation and the return period of atmospheric patterns. We detect significant emerging trends in the winter circulation, pointing towards a potential increased predictability. No such signal seems to emerge in the summer. We find that the winter trends in the dominating atmospheric patterns and their recurrences do not depend of the patterns themselves.

Published
2018
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10. Trends of atmospheric circulation during singular hot days in Europe

Author

Aglaé Jézéquel, Julien Cattiaux, Philippe Naveau, Sabine Radanovics, Aurélien Ribes, Robert Vautard, Mathieu Vrac, and Pascal Yiou

Subjects
atmospheric circulation, Europe, extreme event attribution, heatwaves, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, TD1-1066, Environmental sciences, GE1-350, Science, Physics, QC1-999
Abstract

The influence of climate change on mid-latitudes atmospheric circulation is still very uncertain. The large internal variability makes it difficult to extract any statistically significant signal regarding the evolution of the circulation. Here we propose a methodology to calculate dynamical trends tailored to the circulation of specific days by computing the evolution of the distances between the circulation of the day of interest and the other days of the time series. We compute these dynamical trends for two case studies of the hottest days recorded in two different European regions (corresponding to the heat-waves of summer 2003 and 2010). We use the NCEP reanalysis dataset, an ensemble of CMIP5 models, and a large ensemble of a single model (CESM), in order to account for different sources of uncertainty. While we find a positive trend for most models for 2003, we cannot conclude for 2010 since the models disagree on the trend estimates.

Published
2018
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11. Projected squeezing of the wintertime North-Atlantic jet

Author

Yannick Peings, Julien Cattiaux, Stephen J Vavrus, and Gudrun Magnusdottir

Subjects
mid-latitude dynamics, Arctic-mid-latitude linkage, polar amplification, upper-troposphere tropical warming, cold extremes, RCP8.5 projections, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, TD1-1066, Environmental sciences, GE1-350, Science, Physics, QC1-999
Abstract

The future response of the atmospheric circulation to increased anthropogenic forcing is uncertain, in particular due to competing influences of the large projected warming at the surface in the Arctic, and at upper-levels in the tropics. In the present study two ensembles of fully-coupled 21st century climate simulations are used to analyze changes in the wintertime eddy-driven jet in the North Atlantic and the relation to the well-defined thermal signatures of climate change. The models project a robust reinforcement of the eddy-driven jet and a decrease in waviness and blockings, that we attribute to a narrowing of the westerly flow in mid-latitudes. Composite analyses suggest that this signal is driven by the opposite influence of Arctic and tropical warming on each flank of the jet. We find that a significant portion of the multi-model spread in the jet metrics can be explained by the ratio between these two signals. The tug-of-war between the two effects influences by how much wintertime cold extremes diminish at the end of the 21st century. Models with dominant tropical warming (i. e. narrower and stronger eddy-driven jet) exhibit less decrease in cold extremes with climate change, due to the maintenance of cooler conditions in the subpolar North Atlantic and subarctic seas compared to models with a predominance of Arctic warming.

Published
2018
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12. Searching for the most extreme temperature events in recent history

Author

Julien Cattiaux and Aurélien Ribes

Abstract

Because they are rare, extreme weather events inevitably attract public and scientific attention. The most unusual events are regularly documented as part of routine climate monitoring by meteorological services, and put into the perspective of climate change by attribution studies through quantities such as a probability ratio. However, it is often recognized that (i) the selection of studied events is geographically uneven, and (ii) the definition of a given event, in particular its spatio-temporal scale, is subjective, which may impact the results.In previous work, we proposed an objective method of event definition, consisting in the automatic selection of the spatio-temporal window maximizing the event rarity. Importantly, we showed that maximizing the event rarity does not bias attribution statements, in the sense that it does not systematically maximize (or minimize) the probability ratio. Here we present how this method can be used to compare several events occurring on different years, seasons, regions, etc. Our objective research procedure works both over time, which can be useful for routine climate monitoring, and over space, which can resolve the geographical selection bias of attribution studies. Ultimately, we provide a selection of the most extreme hot and cold events that have occurred worldwide in the recent past, among which are iconic heat waves such as that seen in 2021 in Canada or 2003 in Europe.

Published
2023

13. Heat extremes in Western Europe are increasing faster than simulated due to missed atmospheric circulation changes

Author

Robert Vautard, Julien Cattiaux, Tamara Happé, Jitendra Singh, Rémy Bonnet, Christophe Cassou, Dim Coumou, Fabio D'Andrea, Davide Faranda, Erich Fischer, Aurélien Ribes, Sebastian Sippel, and Pascal Yiou

Abstract

Over the last 70 years, extreme heat has been increasing at global scale [1,2], with a rapid rate in several regions including Western Europe [3]. Climate models broadly capture heat trends globally [1], but exhibit systematically weaker extreme heat trends than observations in Western Europe [4-6], together with a weaker summer warming [7,8]. The causes of this mismatch, confirmed here by the analysis of 273 latest generation coupled climate simulations, among which only a handful of them overpass observed trends, are not well understood. Here we use a circulation analogue approach [9,10] to identify the dynamical contribution to temperature trends [11-12], and show that a substantial fraction (1.0°C [0.4°-1.6°C] of 3.4°C per global warming degree) of the trend is due to circulation changes, largely due to increases in southerly flows over Western Europe. Their rapid increase in frequency (+63% [20%-106%] since 1950) and persistence (+45% [12%-77%]) are not captured by any of the 32 climate model flow simulations analyzed. The few simulations reaching the observed warming trends in extreme heat have weak dynamical changes, with a decrease in occurrence of southerly flows, indicating that they capture the warming trend for the wrong reasons. These model biases in circulation trends can be due to a systematically underestimated or erroneous representation of the circulation response to external forcing, or to a systematic underestimation of interdecadal variability, or both. The former implies that projections are too conservative, the latter that we are left with deep uncertainty regarding the pace of future summer heat in Europe: the current strong recent trend could weaken or increase in future decades. This calls for caution when interpreting climate projections of heat extremes over Western Europe, in particular in view of adaptation to heat waves.

Published
2023

14. Intercomparison of Four Tropical Cyclones Detection Algorithms on ERA5

Author

Stella Bourdin, Sébastien Fromang, William Dulac, Julien Cattiaux, Fabrice Chauvin, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), and Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere
Abstract

The assessment of tropical cyclone (TC) statistics requires the direct, objective, and automatic detection and tracking of TCs in reanalyses and model simulations. Research groups have independently developed numerous algorithms during recent decades in order to answer that need. Today, there is a large number of trackers that aim to detect the positions of TCs in gridded datasets. The questions we ask here are the following: does the choice of tracker impact the climatology obtained? And, if it does, how should we deal with this issue? This paper compares four trackers with very different formulations in detail. We assess their performances by tracking TCs in the ERA5 reanalysis and by comparing the outcome to the IBTrACS observations database. We find typical detection rates of the trackers around 80 %. At the same time, false alarm rates (FARs) greatly vary across the four trackers and can sometimes exceed the number of genuine cyclones detected. Based on the finding that many of these false alarms (FAs) are extra-tropical cyclones (ETCs), we adapt two existing filtering methods common to all trackers. Both post-treatments dramatically impact FARs, which range from 9 % to 36 % in our final catalogs of TC tracks. We then show that different traditional metrics can be very sensitive to the particular choice of tracker, which is particularly true for the TC frequencies and their durations. By contrast, all trackers identify a robust negative bias in ERA5 TC intensities, a result already noted in previous studies. We conclude by advising against using as many trackers as possible and averaging the results. A more efficient approach would involve selecting one or a few trackers with well-known and complementary properties.

Published
2022

15. ReNovRisk: a multidisciplinary programme to study the cyclonic risks in the South-West Indian Ocean

Author

Alicia Gonzalez, Sabine Garabedian, Claire Rault, Kevin Samyn, David Nortes-Martinez, Dominique Mekies, Soline Bielli, Guillaume Payen, Gwenaëlle Pennober, Florian Jouvenot, Fabrice R. Fontaine, Christelle Barthe, Joris Pianezze, E. J. Rindraharisaona, Julien Cattiaux, Jean-Lambert Join, Idriss Fontaine, Jean-Pierre Cammas, Pascal Mouquet, Bertrand Aunay, Remi Belon, Fabrice Chauvin, Pierre Tulet, Callum Thompson, François Bonnardot, Franck Gabarrot, Olivier Bousquet, Guilhem Barruol, Hélène Vérèmes, Christophe Révillion, Laboratoire de l'Atmosphère et des Cyclones (LACy), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) (BRGM), Laboratoire GéoSciences Réunion (LGSR), Université de La Réunion (UR)-Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (IPGP), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-IPG PARIS-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP), Météo France, Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de La Réunion (OSU-Réunion), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de La Réunion (UR), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre d'Économie et de Management de l'Océan Indien (CEMOI), Université de La Réunion (UR), UMR 228 Espace-Dev, Espace pour le développement, Université de Guyane (UG)-Université des Antilles (UA)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Avignon Université (AU)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Université de Montpellier (UM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France, Université de La Réunion (UR)-Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (IPG Paris), Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (IPGP (UMR_7154)), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (IPG Paris)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Météo-France Direction Interrégionale Sud-Est (DIRSE), Météo-France, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Avignon Université (AU)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Université de Guyane (UG)-Université des Antilles (UA)

Subjects
Tropical cyclone, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph], Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Climate change, Structural basin, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, Interdisciplinary programme, Indian ocean, Geography, 13. Climate action, Multidisciplinary approach, Natural hazard, Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous), Cyclone, 14. Life underwater, Cyclonic hazards, Resilience (network), Indian Ocean, Environmental planning, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Water Science and Technology
Abstract

Today, resilience in the face of cyclone risks has become a crucial issue for our societies. With climate change, the risk of strong cyclones occurring is expected to intensify significantly and to impact the way of life in many countries. To meet some of the associated challenges, the interdisciplinary ReNovRisk programme aims to study tropical cyclones and their impacts on the South-West Indian Ocean basin. This article is a presentation of the ReNovRisk programme, which is divided into four areas: study of cyclonic hazards, study of erosion and solid transport processes, study of water transfer and swell impacts on the coast, and studies of socio-economic impacts. The first transdisciplinary results of the programme are presented together with the database, which will be open access from mid-2021.

Published
2021

16. Tracking tropical cyclones in reanalysis and simulations: guidelines from an intercomparison of four algorithms

Author

Stella Bourdin, Sébastien Fromang, William Dulac, Julien Cattiaux, and Fabrice Chauvin

Abstract

The direct detection — or tracking — of tropical cyclones (TC) in gridded datasets outputs from reanalyses or model simulations is required to assess TC statistics. This issue has been tackled independently by many modeling centers or research groups; hence there is little homogeneity in the existing methods. The trackers – i.e., the algorithms used to perform that tracking -- generally fall into one of two categories: physics-based or dynamics-based. Physics-based trackers use sea-level pressure as their primary tracking variable, with additional warm-core and intensity criteria, whereas dynamics-based trackers use kinematic variables such as vorticity.We compared four trackers taken from both categories and that we deem very different from one another in terms of their formulation: UZ (sometimes called TempestExtremes, Ullrich et al. 2021), OWZ (Tory et al. 2013), TRACK (Hodges et al. 2017) and CNRM (Chauvin et al. 2016). We assessed their performances by tracking TCs in ERA5 and comparing the outcome to the IBTrACS database – a collection of TC observations from several meteorological centers worldwide.We find typical detection rates ranging from 70 to 80% and False Alarm (FA) rates ranging from 20 to 50% depending on the trackers. Based on the finding that a large proportion of these FAs are extra-tropical cyclones, we adapted an existing filtering method that relies on the relative positions of the detected tracks and the upper troposphere subtropical jet. When applied identically to the four trackers, it reduces FA rates to figures ranging from 9 to 30% while leaving detection rates unchanged.Even though we were able to find most of the observed TCs in ERA5, we find, in agreement with several results in the recent literature, that their intensity is largely underestimated. However, and perhaps counterintuitively, there is no simple attenuation relationship between observed and reanalyzed TCs: for example, the strongest observed TCs are found in ERA5 with intensities covering almost the entire TC intensity scale.We conclude by providing guidelines applicable when faced with the question of which tracker(s) to use depending on the research question. In particular, we show that using several trackers is not necessarily relevant for optimizing detection skills but combining them can be helpful to gain insight into different aspects of TCs in the same dataset.Finally, we used the expertise gained above to track TCs in a set of HighResMIP simulations performed with the IPSL-CM7A model at different resolutions. In agreement with recent results, we find that the ability to simulate TCs improves significantly with resolution. Even though the intensity of simulated TCs remains too weak on average, the global statistics approach observations for simulations at a few tens of kilometers of horizontal resolution.

Published
2022

17. How Realistic are Tropical Cyclones in the ERA5 Reanalysis?

Author

William Dulac, Julien Cattiaux, Fabrice Chauvin, Stella Bourdin, and Sébastien Fromang

Abstract

The ERA5 dataset from the ECMWF is the first global reanalysis product to reach a horizontal resolution of 0.28125° (31km), a resolution that is thought to allow for a realistic representation of small-scale atmospheric features such as tropical cyclones.Using the CNRM Tropical Cyclone Tracking Scheme carefully calibrated for ERA5 and a track pairing algorithm that uses the International Best Track dataset (IBTrACS) as reference, we investigate how well tropical cyclones (TC) are represented in ERA5.First we show that the majority of IBTrACS systems are found by the ERA5 tracking, but that performances in terms of probability of detection and false alarm rate varies from one geographical basin to the other. Moreover, by comparing the intensities between tracked TCs from ERA5 and their observational counterparts, we show that TCs in the reanalysis are rather weak considering the spatial resolution – both in terms of maximum wind speed and pressure minimum. By looking at mean wind speed life cycles in several geographic basins we also show that TCs de-escalate too quickly after reaching their peak intensity. Finally, using a compositing technique we look at the internal structure of TCs and and that despite the weak intensity, they present expected features regarding radial and tangential wind speed and upper-core temperature anomaly when sorted by Saffir-Simpson categories.

Published
2022

18. Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Inhabited Areas of the SWIO Basin at Present and Future Horizons. Part 2: Modeling Component of the Research Program RENOVRISK-CYCLONE

Author

Fabrice Chauvin, Olivier Bousquet, Jonas Zucule, Frauke Fleischer-Dogley, Quoc-Phi Duong, Edouard Lees, Romain Husson, Alexis Mouche, Callum Thompson, Emmanuel Cordier, François Bonnardot, Radiance Calmer, Navalona Manitriniana Ravoson, Guilhem Barruol, Vincent Amelie, M. Singh, Julien Cattiaux, Bruno Razafindradina, Nicolas Marquestaut, Sylvie Malardel, Alberto Mavume, Chia-Lun Tsai, Stéphane Ciccione, Dominique Mekies, Soline Bielli, Joris Pianezze, M Claeys, E. J. Rindraharisaona, Christelle Barthe, Lova Zakariasy, Gregory Roberts, Pierre Tulet, Jonathan Durand, Marie-Noëlle Bouin, Laboratoire de l'Atmosphère et des Cyclones (LACy), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France, Laboratoire d'aérologie (LAERO), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, Institute for Coastal Marine Research (CMR), Nelson Mandela University, Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Center for Atmospheric REmote Sensing (CARE), Kyungpook National University [Daegu], Direction Interrégionale de Météo-Franc pour l'océan Indien, Laboratoire d'Océanographie Physique et Spatiale (LOPS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Seychelles Meteorological Authority, Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (IPGP), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-IPG PARIS-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP), Laboratoire GéoSciences Réunion (LGSR), Université de La Réunion (UR)-Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), University of Colorado [Boulder], Kélonia - Observatoire des tortues marines, Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de La Réunion (OSU-Réunion), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de La Réunion (UR), Seychelles Islands Foundation (SIF), Collecte Localisation Satellites (CLS), Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES), Eduardo Mondlane University, Institut et Observatoire de Géophysique d’Antisiranana (IOGA), Institut Supérieur de Technologie d’Antisiranana, Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO), University of California [San Diego] (UC San Diego), University of California-University of California, Mauritius Oceanography Institute, University of Mauritius, Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INAM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France, Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Kyungpook National University [Daegu] (KNU), Direction Interrégionale de Météo-France pour l'océan Indien (DIROI), Météo-France, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (IPGP (UMR_7154)), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (IPG Paris)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Université de La Réunion (UR)-Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (IPG Paris), Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO - UC San Diego), and University of California (UC)-University of California (UC)

Subjects
Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, tropical cyclone, ocean-wave-atmosphere coupling, Climate change, Context (language use), Environmental Science (miscellaneous), 01 natural sciences, Meteorology. Climatology, 14. Life underwater, climate modeling, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, geography, cloud-resolving model, geography.geographical_feature_category, Microphysics, 010505 oceanography, Global warming, ocean–wave–atmosphere coupling, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Archipelago, south-west Indian ocean, Environmental science, Cyclone, Climate model, Tropical cyclone, QC851-999
Abstract

International audience; The ReNovRisk-Cyclone program aimed at developing an observation network in the south-west Indian ocean (SWIO) in close synergy with the implementation of numerical tools to model and analyze the impacts of tropical cyclones (TC) in the present and in a context of climate change. This paper addresses the modeling part of the program. First, a unique coupled system to simulate TCs in the SWIO is developed. The ocean–wave–atmosphere coupling is considered along with a coherent coupling between sea surface state, wind field, aerosol, microphysics, and radiation. This coupled system is illustrated through several simulations of TCs: the impact of air–sea flux parameterizations on the evolution of TC Fantala is examined, the full coupling developed during the program is illustrated on TC Idai, and the potential of novel observations like space-borne synthetic aperture radar and sea turtles to validate the atmosphere and ocean models is presented with TC Herold. Secondly, the evolution of cyclonic activity in the SWIO during the second half of the 21st century is assessed. It was addressed both using climate simulation and through the implementation of a pseudo global warming method in the high-resolution coupled modeling platform. Our results suggest that the Mascarene Archipelago should experience an increase of TC related hazards in the medium term.

Published
2021

19. Tracking Changes in Climate Sensitivity in CNRM Climate Models

Author

David Saint-Martin, Hervé Douville, Jean-François Guérémy, Aurore Voldoire, Laurent Terray, Bertrand Decharme, Julien Cattiaux, Sophie Valcke, Christine Delire, Romain Roehrig, Emilie Joetzjer, Matthieu Chevallier, Jeanne Colin, Aurélien Ribes, Fabrice Chauvin, Olivier Geoffroy, Florent Brient, Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Centre Européen de Biotechnologies et Bioéconomie (CEBB), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL)

Subjects
Physical geography, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Climate change, GC1-1581, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, global warming, Oceanography, 01 natural sciences, Cloud feedback, climate models, Radiative transfer, Environmental Chemistry, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Global and Planetary Change, Global warming, Longwave, GB3-5030, 13. Climate action, [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics], [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Climatology, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, Climate sensitivity, climate sensitivity, Climate model, Shortwave
Abstract

International audience; The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) in the latest version of CNRM climate model, CNRM-CM6-1, and in its high-resolution counterpart, CNRM-CM6-1-HR, is significantly larger than in the previous version (CNRM-CM5.1). The traceability of this climate sensitivity change is investigated using coupled ocean-atmosphere model climate change simulations. These simulations show that the increase in ECS is the result of changes in the atmospheric component. A particular attention is paid to the method used to decompose the equilibrium temperature response difference, by using a linearized decomposition of the individual radiative agents diagnosed by a radiative kernel technique. The climate sensitivity increase is primarily due to the cloud radiative responses, with a predominant contribution of the tropical longwave response (including both feedback and forcing adjustment) and a significant contribution of the extratropical and tropical shortwave feedback changes. A series of stand-alone atmosphere experiments is carried out to quantify the contributions of each atmospheric development to this difference between CNRM-CM5.1 and CNRM-CM6-1. The change of the convection scheme appears to play an important role in driving the cloud changes, with a large effect on the tropical longwave cloud feedback change.

Published
2021

20. Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Inhabited Areas of the SWIO Basin at Present and Future Horizons. Part 1: Overview and Observing Component of the Research Project RENOVRISK-CYCLONE

Author

Joris Pianezze, M Claeys, E. J. Rindraharisaona, Pierre Tulet, Bruno Razafindradina, Guilhem Barruol, Romain Husson, Callum Thompson, François Bonnardot, Chia-Lun Tsai, Frauke Fleischer-Dogley, Christelle Barthe, Lova Zakariasy, M. Singh, Julien Cattiaux, Nicolas Marquestaut, Alberto Mavume, Fabrice Chauvin, Stéphane Ciccione, Jonas Zucule, Dominique Mekies, Gregory Roberts, Jonathan Durand, Olivier Bousquet, Emmanuel Cordier, Edouard Lees, Alexis Mouche, Radiance Calmer, Vincent Amelie, Soline Bielli, Laboratoire de l'Atmosphère et des Cyclones (LACy), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France, Institute for Coastal Marine Research (CMR), Nelson Mandela University, Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (IPGP (UMR_7154)), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (IPG Paris)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de La Réunion (OSU-Réunion), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de La Réunion (UR), Laboratoire d'aérologie (LAERO), Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), University of Colorado [Boulder], Laboratoire GéoSciences Réunion (LGSR), Université de La Réunion (UR)-Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (IPG Paris), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO - UC San Diego), University of California [San Diego] (UC San Diego), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), Seychelles Meteorological Authority, Seychelles Islands Foundation (SIF), Eduardo Mondlane University, Institut Supérieur de Technologie d’Antisiranana, Direction Interrégionale de Météo-France pour l'océan Indien (DIROI), Météo-France, Mauritius Oceanography Institute, University of Mauritius, Collecte Localisation Satellites (CLS), Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES), Laboratoire d'Océanographie Physique et Spatiale (LOPS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Kélonia - Observatoire des tortues marines, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France, Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (IPGP), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-IPG PARIS-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, Université de La Réunion (UR)-Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO), University of California-University of California, Direction Interrégionale de Météo-Franc pour l'océan Indien, and Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Meteorology, tropical cyclone, gliders, Satellite system, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), Structural basin, sea turtles, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, seismic data, biologging, Meteorology. Climatology, 14. Life underwater, south-west Indian Ocean, unmanned airborne system, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Atmospheric sounding, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, global satellite navigation system, ReNovRisk, austral and cyclonic swells, numerical modelling, climate modelling, Drone, Swell, 13. Climate action, GNSS applications, Cyclone, Environmental science, QC851-999, Tropical cyclone
Abstract

International audience; The international research program “ReNovRisk-CYCLONE” (RNR-CYC, 2017–2021) directly involves 20 partners from 5 countries of the south-west Indian-Ocean. It aims at improving the observation and modelling of tropical cyclones in the south-west Indian Ocean, as well as to foster regional cooperation and improve public policies adapted to present and future tropical cyclones risk in this cyclonic basin. This paper describes the structure and main objectives of this ambitious research project, with emphasis on its observing components, which allowed integrating numbers of innovative atmospheric and oceanic observations (sea-turtle borne and seismic data, unmanned airborne system, ocean gliders), as well as combining standard and original methods (radiosoundings and global navigation satellite system (GNSS) atmospheric soundings, seismic and in-situ swell sampling, drone and satellite imaging) to support research on tropical cyclones from the local to the basin-scale.

Published
2021

21. From the Climates of the Past to the Climates of the Future

Author

Gilles Ramstein, Laurent Bopp, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Julien Cattiaux, Nathaelle Bouttes, Aurélien Quiquet, Sylvie Charbit, Modélisation du climat (CLIM), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Gilles Ramstein, Amaëlle Landais, Nathaelle Bouttes, Pierre Sepulchre, Aline Govin, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
Geography, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, 13. Climate action, business.industry, Environmental resource management, Future climate, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, business, 01 natural sciences, Natural (archaeology), 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

International audience; This chapter connects everything we have learned about past climates (both from the analysis of natural archives and from numerical simulations), and future climate projections. The models used to explore the future are similar to those used for past climates, except that the results are based on emission scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions whereas past climate simulations may be compared to reconstructions from the natural archives described in volume 1. The climate of the past 1,000 years can be seen as the ‘background noise’ of the recent natural evolution of theclimate system. On this basis, the current climate change can be analyzed. Over the longer term, analysis of ice cores allows us to trace back the history of atmospheric CO2 concentration over the last 800,000 years, and shows that the anthropogenic disturbance (producing an atmospheric CO2 concentration currently in excess of 410 ppm) is completely outside the documented glacialinterglacial variations over the last million years, ranging from 180 to 280 ppm. With this awareness you are well equipped to now explore the climate of the future.

Published
2020

22. The CNRM Global Atmosphere Model ARPEGE‐Climat 6.3: Description and Evaluation

Author

Jeanne Colin, David Salas y Mélia, Matthieu Chevallier, Bertrand Decharme, Dominique Bouniol, Julien Cattiaux, David Saint-Martin, Stephane Sénési, Thomas Oudar, Sophie Belamari, Ahmat Younous Abdel‐Lathif, Pierre Nabat, Philippe Peyrillé, Aurore Voldoire, Roland Séférian, Jean-Marcel Piriou, Martine Michou, Pascal Marquet, Romain Roehrig, Yves Bouteloup, Eric Bazile, Fabrice Chauvin, Hervé Douville, Jean-François Guérémy, Sebastien Blein, I. Beau, Antoinette Alias, Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Groupe de Météorologie de Grande Échelle et Climat (GMGEC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Groupe de Modélisation pour l'Assimilation et la Prévision (GMAP), Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Groupe de Météorologie à Moyenne Échelle (GMME)

Subjects
Global and Planetary Change, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 0207 environmental engineering, 02 engineering and technology, Atmospheric model, 15. Life on land, [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology, 01 natural sciences, lcsh:Oceanography, 13. Climate action, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Climatology, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental Chemistry, Environmental science, lcsh:GC1-1581, [SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, 020701 environmental engineering, lcsh:GB3-5030, lcsh:Physical geography, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

The present study describes the atmospheric component of the sixth‐generation climate models of the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM), namely, ARPEGE‐Climat 6.3. It builds up on more than a decade of model development and tuning efforts, which led to major updates of its moist physics. The vertical resolution has also been significantly increased, both in the boundary layer and in the stratosphere. ARPEGE‐Climat 6.3 is now coupled to the new version (8.0) of the SURFace EXternalisée (SURFEX) surface model, in which several new features (e.g., floodplains, aquifers, and snow processes) improve the water cycle realism. The model calibration is discussed in depth. An amip‐type experiment, in which the sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations are prescribed, and following the CMIP6 protocol, is extensively evaluated, in terms of climate mean state and variability. ARPEGE‐Climat 6.3 is shown to improve over its previous version (5.1) by many climate features. Major improvements include the top‐of‐atmosphere and surface energy budgets in their various components (shortwave and longwave, total and clear sky), cloud cover, near‐surface temperature, precipitation climatology and daily‐mean distribution, and water discharges at the outlet of major rivers. In contrast, clouds over subtropical stratocumulus decks, several dynamical variables (sea level pressure, 500‐hPa geopotential height), are still significantly biased. The tropical intraseasonal variability and diurnal cycle of precipitation, though improved, remained area of concerns for further model improvement. New biases also emerge, such as a lack of precipitation over several tropical continental areas. Within the CMIP6 context, ARPEGE‐Climat 6.3 is the atmospheric component of CNRM‐CM6‐1 and CNRM‐ESM2‐1.

Published
2020

23. Drivers of the Northern Extratropical Eddy‐Driven Jet Change in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models

Author

Julien Cattiaux, Thomas Oudar, Hervé Douville, Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), and Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Jet (fluid), Geophysics, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Extratropical cyclone, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

International audience

Published
2020

24. Robustness and drivers of the Northern Hemisphere extratropical atmospheric circulation response to a CO2-induced warming in CNRM-CM6-1

Author

Thomas Oudar, Romain Roehrig, Julien Cattiaux, David Saint-Martin, Olivier Geoffroy, Hervé Douville, Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmospheric Science, geography, Jet (fluid), geography.geographical_feature_category, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Atmospheric circulation, Northern Hemisphere, Forcing (mathematics), Structural basin, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, Boreal, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Extratropical cyclone, Sea ice, Environmental science, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

Understanding the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation response to CO$$_2$$ forcing is challenging and complex due to the strong internal variability and the multiple potential CO$$_2$$-induced effects. While a significant poleward shift of the jet is projected in summer, changes remain uncertain in winter. In this study, we investigate the boreal winter extratropical jet response to an abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric CO$$_2$$ in the CMIP6-generation global climate model CNRM-CM6-1. First, we show that the model performs better than the former generation CNRM-CM5 model in representing the atmospheric dynamics in the northern extratropics. Then, when atmospheric CO$$_2$$ is quadrupled, CNRM-CM6-1 exhibits a strengthening and upward shift of the jet. A poleward shift is identified and robust in the Pacific in boreal winter. In the Atlantic, the jet response rather exhibits a squeezing, especially at the eastern part of the basin. It is found that changes are more robust across the Northern Hemisphere in early-winter than in late-winter season. Finally, the circulation response is broken down into individual contributions of various drivers. The uniform global mean component of the SST warming is found to explain most of the total atmospheric response to a quadrupling of CO$$_2$$, with relatively smaller contributions from faster CO$$_2$$ effects, the SST pattern change and the Arctic sea ice decline. The cloud radiative effect contribution is also assessed and found to be rather weak in the CNRM-CM6-1 model. This study highlights that long experiments are required to isolate the wintertime circulation response from the internal variability, and that idealized experimental setups are helpful to disentangle the physical drivers.

Published
2020

25. Describing the Relationship between a Weather Event and Climate Change: A New Statistical Approach

Author

Julien Cattiaux, Aurélien Ribes, Soulivanh Thao, Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)

Subjects
Atmospheric Science, [STAT.AP]Statistics [stat]/Applications [stat.AP], History, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Event (relativity), 0208 environmental biotechnology, Climate change, 02 engineering and technology, [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology, 01 natural sciences, 020801 environmental engineering, 13. Climate action, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Climatology, Attribution, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

Describing the relationship between a weather event and climate change—a science usually termedevent attribution—involves quantifying the extent to which human influence has affected the frequency or the strength of an observed event. In this study we show how event attribution can be implemented through the application of nonstationary statistics to transient simulations, typically covering the 1850–2100 period. The use of existing CMIP-style simulations has many advantages, including their availability for a large range of coupled models and the fact that they are not conditional to a given oceanic state. We develop a technique for providing a multimodel synthesis, consistent with the uncertainty analysis of long-term changes. Last, we describe how model estimates can be combined with historical observations to provide a single diagnosis accounting for both sources of information. The potential of this new method is illustrated using the 2003 European heat wave and under a Gaussian assumption. Results suggest that (i) it is feasible to perform event attribution using transient simulations and nonstationary statistics, even for a single model; (ii) the use of multimodel synthesis in event attribution is highly desirable given the spread in single-model estimates; and (iii) merging models and observations substantially reduces uncertainties in human-induced changes. Investigating transient simulations also enables us to derive insightful diagnostics of how the targeted event will be affected by climate change in the future.

Published
2020

26. Analyses of the Northern European Summer Heatwave of 2018

Author

Julien Cattiaux, Aglaé Jézéquel, Aurélien Ribes, Philippe Naveau, Nikolay Kadygrov, Yoann Robin, Pascal Yiou, Mathieu Vrac, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Soulivanh Thao, Davide Faranda, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique (CNRM-GAME), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL)

Subjects
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmospheric Science, Geography, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 010501 environmental sciences, [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology, 01 natural sciences, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

International audience

Published
2020

27. Projected changes in the Southern Indian Ocean cyclone activity assessed from high-resolution experiments and CMIP5 models

Author

Olivier Bousquet, Chia-Lun Tsai, Julien Cattiaux, Fabrice Chauvin, Sylvie Malardel, Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire de l'Atmosphère et des Cyclones (LACy), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France, Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique (CNRM-GAME), and Météo France-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Climate change, High resolution, [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, Indian ocean, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Cyclogenesis, Environmental science, Cyclone, Climate model, Tropical cyclone, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

The evolution of tropical cyclone activity under climate change remains a crucial scientific issue. Physical theory of cyclogenesis is limited, observational datasets suffer from heterogeneities in space and time, and state-of-the-art climate models used for future projections are still too coarse (~100 km of resolution) to simulate realistic systems. Two approaches can nevertheless be considered: 1) perform dedicated high-resolution (typically

Published
2020

28. AMOC and summer sea ice as key drivers of the spread in mid-holocene winter temperature patterns over Europe in PMIP3 models

Author

Julien Cattiaux, Alina Găinuşă-Bogdan, Didier Swingedouw, Simon Michel, Francis Codron, Pascal Yiou, Environnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques (EPOC), Observatoire aquitain des sciences de l'univers (OASU), Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), ANR-10-LABX-0018,L-IPSL,LabEx Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL): Understand climate and anticipate future changes(2010), European Project: 312979,EC:FP7:INFRA,FP7-INFRASTRUCTURES-2012-1,IS-ENES2(2013), Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)

Subjects
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Global and Planetary Change, geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Inter-model spread, Anomaly (natural sciences), Northern Hemisphere, Before Present, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, Oceanography, 01 natural sciences, 13. Climate action, North Atlantic oscillation, Climatology, Mid-Holocene, Period (geology), Sea ice, NAO, Climate model, AMOC, Holocene, Geology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, PMIP3
Abstract

The mid-Holocene (6000 years before present) was a warmer period than today in summer in most of the Northern Hemisphere. In winter, over Europe, pollen-based reconstructions show a dipole of temperature anomalies as compared to present-day, with warmer conditions in the north and colder in the south. It has been proposed that this pattern of temperature anomaly could be explained by a persisting positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation during this period, which was, however, not reproduced in general by climate models. Indeed, PMIP3 models show a large spread in their response to the mid-Holocene insolation changes, the physical origins of which are not understood. To improve the understanding of the reconstructed temperature changes and of the PMIP3 model spread, we analyze the dynamical response of these model simulations in the North Atlantic for mid-Holocene conditions as compared to pre-industrial. We focus on the European pattern of temperature in winter and compare the simulations with a pollen-based reconstruction. We find that some of the model simulations yield a similar pattern to the reconstructed one, but with far lower amplitude, although it remains within the reconstruction uncertainty. We attribute the northern warm part of the latitudinal dipole of temperature anomaly in winter to a lower sea-ice cover in the Nordic Seas. The decrease of sea ice in winter indeed reduces the local sea-ice insulation effect, allowing the released ocean heat to reach continental northern Europe. This decrease in winter sea-ice cover is related to an increase in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and its associated ocean heat transport, as well as the effect of insolation changes on sea ice in summer, which persists until winter. We only find a slight cooling signal over southern Europe, compared to reconstructions, mainly related to the insolation-induced cooling in winter over Africa. We show that the models that failed to reproduce any AMOC increase under mid-Holocene conditions are also the ones that do not reproduce the temperature pattern over Europe. The change in sea level pressure is not sufficient to explain the spread among the models. The ocean-sea ice mechanisms that we proposed constitute an alternative explanation to the pattern of changes in winter temperatures over Europe in the mid-Holocene, which is in better agreement with available model simulations of this period. Finally, we evaluate if reconstructions of the AMOC for the mid-Holocene can provide interesting emerging constraints on key changes in European climate, and indirectly on AMOC response to on-going and future radiative changes. Although there is a significant link between the response of the mid-Holocene and projections, it remains limited. The proposed mechanism does not appear to be sufficient to explain the large discrepancies between models and reconstruction data for the summertime period.

Published
2020

29. Fast‐Forward to Perturbed Equilibrium Climate

Author

David Saint-Martin, Olivier Geoffroy, Bertrand Decharme, Aurore Voldoire, Aurélien Ribes, Julien Cattiaux, L. Watson, Hervé Douville, Gilles Bellon, Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of Auckland [Auckland], Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), and Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Global warming, Radiative forcing, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 7. Clean energy, 01 natural sciences, Geophysics, 13. Climate action, Climatology, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, Climate sensitivity, Climate model, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

International audience; The equilibrium climate sensitivity, that is, the global-mean surface-air temperature change in response to a doubling of the carbon dioxide concentration is a widely used metric in climate change studies. Its exact value is rarely known because its estimation requires a long integration time of several thousand years. We propose a method to estimate an accurate value of the equilibrium response from fully coupled climate models at a reasonable computational cost. Using this method, our state-of-the-art climate model CNRM-CM6-1 reaches a stationary state after only few hundred of years of integration. This "Fast-Forward" method consists of an optimal two-step forcing pathway designed using the framework of a two-layer energy balance model. It can be applied easily to any coupled climate model.

Published
2019

30. The Polar Stratosphere as an Arbiter of the Projected Tropical Versus Polar Tug of War

Author

Gudrun Magnusdottir, Julien Cattiaux, Yannick Peings, Department of Earth System Science [Irvine] (ESS), University of California [Irvine] (UC Irvine), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of California [Irvine] (UCI), University of California-University of California, and Météo France-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Atmospheric circulation, Climate change, Atmospheric model, Jet stream, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, Geophysics, 13. Climate action, Middle latitudes, Climatology, Polar amplification, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, Polar, Stratosphere, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

Author(s): Peings, Y; Cattiaux, J; Magnusdottir, G | Abstract: This study explores the “tug of war” between the effects of Arctic amplification (“AA”) and upper-troposphere tropical warming (“UTW”) on the response of the future North Atlantic atmospheric circulation. The late 21st century AA and UTW temperature anomalies are imposed in a high-top atmospheric model by nudging the temperature. Two sets of experiments are performed, with and without feedback of the polar stratosphere to highlight its role in the response to UTW, AA, and both combined. With interactive polar stratosphere, UTW forces an equatorward shift of the eddy-driven jet that reinforces the response to AA. However, when the polar stratosphere feedback is suppressed, the response to UTW is opposite and reflects the previously identified tug of war between the effects of UTW and AA in midlatitudes. This study highlights that the polar stratosphere is a key component for future changes in the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation and that it must be accurately represented in climate change scenarios.

Published
2019

31. Evaluation of CMIP6 DECK Experiments With CNRM‐CM6‐1

Author

David Saint-Martin, Yann Meurdesoif, Julie Deshayes, Sophie Belamari, D. Salas y Melia, Robin Waldman, Stephane Sénési, Jeanne Colin, Sophie Valcke, Gurvan Madec, Roland Séférian, Olivier Geoffroy, Hervé Douville, Romain Roehrig, Pierre Nabat, Matthieu Chevallier, Laurent Franchistéguy, Jean-François Guérémy, Sarah Berthet, Christophe Cassou, I. Beau, Bertrand Decharme, Julien Cattiaux, Antoinette Alias, M. P. Moine, Rym Msadek, Emilia Sanchez-Gomez, Christian Ethé, C. Lévy, Aurélien Ribes, Aurore Voldoire, Laurent Terray, Martine Michou, Groupe de Météorologie de Grande Échelle et Climat (GMGEC), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique (CERFACS), Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean (NEMO R&D ), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ANR-13-MONU-0008,CONVERGENCE,Convergence en Science du Climat à l'ère du Big Data et des challenges de l'Exascale.(2013), European Project: 641816,H2020,H2020-SC5-2014-two-stage,CRESCENDO(2015), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), CERFACS, Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)

Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Magnitude (mathematics), climate model, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, lcsh:Oceanography, CMIP6 DECK, Range (statistics), Sea ice, Environmental Chemistry, lcsh:GC1-1581, 14. Life underwater, Sensitivity (control systems), lcsh:Physical geography, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Global and Planetary Change, Coupled model intercomparison project, geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, CNRM‐CM6‐1, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Spatial ecology, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, Climate sensitivity, Climate model, lcsh:GB3-5030
Abstract

International audience; This paper describes the main characteristics of CNRM-CM6-1, the fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model of sixth generation jointly developed by Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM) and Cerfacs for the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). The paper provides a description of each component of CNRM-CM6-1, including the coupling method and the new online output software. We emphasize where model's components have been updated with respect to the former model version, CNRM-CM5.1. In particular, we highlight major improvements in the representation of atmospheric and land processes. A particular attention has also been devoted to mass and energy conservation in the simulated climate system to limit long-term drifts. The climate simulated by CNRM-CM6-1 is then evaluated using CMIP6 historical and Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima (DECK) experiments in comparison with CMIP5 CNRM-CM5.1 equivalent experiments. Overall, the mean surface biases are of similar magnitude but with different spatial patterns. Deep ocean biases are generally reduced, whereas sea ice is too thin in the Arctic. Although the simulated climate variability remains roughly consistent with CNRM-CM5.1, its sensitivity to rising CO 2 has increased: the equilibrium climate sensitivity is 4.9 K, which is now close to the upper bound of the range estimated from CMIP5 models.

Published
2019

32. Sinuosity of midlatitude atmospheric flow in a warming world

Author

Julien Cattiaux, David Saint-Martin, Stephen J. Vavrus, Nadege Trou-Kechout, and Yannick Peings

Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Global warming, Climate change, Westerlies, Sinuosity, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Temperature gradient, Geophysics, Arctic, 13. Climate action, Middle latitudes, Climatology, Polar amplification, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

Global warming is expected to affect mid-latitude atmospheric dynamics through changes in the equator-to-pole temperature gradient. While the latitudinal expansion of the tropics would induce both a poleward shift and reinforcement of the westerlies, Arctic changes might counterbalance this effect. Beyond position and speed, potential changes in the flow waviness are crucial for midlatitude weather. Here we investigate such changes through an intuitive metric characterizing the flow sinuosity at 50 °N. We find that despite a slight increase in recent reanalyses, the mid-latitude sinuosity is projected to decrease in response to climate change according to CMIP5 simulations. Recent trends could therefore result from internal variability or different timings of tropical and polar influences. Future uncertainties are dominated by model discrepancies and partially linked to the dispersion in the equator-to-pole temperature gradient response. Our results support the hypothesis that a faster westerly flow is expected to be less sinuous (and vice-versa).

Published
2016

33. Comparison of hidden and observed regime-switching autoregressive models for (u, v)-components of wind fields in the northeastern Atlantic

Author

Valérie Monbet, Julien Cattiaux, Pierre Ailliot, and Julie Bessac

Subjects
Statistics and Probability, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Series (mathematics), Meteorology, Atmospheric circulation, Applied Mathematics, Context (language use), Oceanography, 01 natural sciences, 010104 statistics & probability, Variable (computer science), Geography, Autoregressive model, 13. Climate action, Alternation (formal language theory), Statistical physics, 0101 mathematics, Cluster analysis, Physics::Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Intensity (heat transfer), 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

Several multi-site stochastic generators of zonal and meridional components of wind are proposed in this paper. A regime-switching framework is introduced to account for the alternation of intensity and variability that is observed in wind conditions due to the existence of different weather types. This modeling blocks time series into periods in which the series is described by a single model. The regime-switching is modeled by a discrete variable that can be introduced as a latent (or hidden) variable or as an observed variable. In the latter case a clustering algorithm is used before fitting the model to extract the regime. Conditional on the regimes, the observed wind conditions are assumed to evolve as a linear Gaussian vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Various questions are explored, such as the modeling of the regime in a multi-site context, the extraction of relevant clusterings from extra variables or from the local wind data, and the link between weather types extracted from wind data and large-scale weather regimes derived from a descriptor of the atmospheric circulation. We also discuss the relative advantages of hidden and observed regime-switching models. For artificial stochastic generation of wind sequences, we show that the proposed models reproduce the average space–time motions of wind conditions, and we highlight the advantage of regime-switching models in reproducing the alternation of intensity and variability in wind conditions.

Published
2016

34. Defining Single Extreme Weather Events in a Climate Perspective

Author

Aurélien Ribes, Julien Cattiaux, Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), and Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 0208 environmental biotechnology, Perspective (graphical), 02 engineering and technology, 01 natural sciences, 020801 environmental engineering, Public interest, Extreme weather, Geography, 13. Climate action, Natural hazard, Environmental planning, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

Weather extremes are the showcase of climate variability. Given their societal and environmental impacts, they are of great public interest. The prevention of natural hazards, the monitoring of single events, and, more recently, their attribution to anthropogenic climate change constitute key challenges for both weather services and scientific communities. Before a single event can be scrutinized, it must be properly defined; in particular, its spatiotemporal characteristics must be chosen. So far, this definition is made with some degree of arbitrariness, yet it might affect conclusions when explaining an extreme weather event from a climate perspective. Here, we propose a generic road map for defining single events as objectively as possible. In particular, as extreme events are inherently characterized by a small probability of occurrence, we suggest selecting the space–time characteristics that minimize this probability. In this way, we are able to automatically identify the spatiotemporal scale at which the event has been the most extreme. According to our methodology, the European heat wave of summer 2003 would be defined as a 2-week event over France and Spain and the Boulder, Colorado, intense rainfall of September 2013 a 5-day local event. Importantly, we show that in both cases, maximizing the rarity of the event does not maximize (or minimize) its fraction of attributable risk to anthropogenic climate change.

Published
2018

35. Projected squeezing of the wintertime North-Atlantic jet

Author

Stephen J. Vavrus, Yannick Peings, Gudrun Magnusdottir, Julien Cattiaux, Department of Earth System Science [Irvine] (ESS), University of California [Irvine] (UC Irvine), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Center for Climatic Research [Madison], Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison-University of Wisconsin-Madison, University of California [Irvine] (UCI), University of California-University of California, and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Atmospheric circulation, upper-troposphere tropical warming, Climate change, Forcing (mathematics), 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, cold extremes, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, Arctic-mid-latitude linkage, CMIP5, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Jet (fluid), Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Tropics, Subarctic climate, The arctic, Climate Action, Arctic, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Environmental science, mid-latitude dynamics, polar amplification, RCP8.5 projections
Abstract

Author(s): Peings, Y; Cattiaux, J; Vavrus, SJ; Magnusdottir, G | Abstract: The future response of the atmospheric circulation to increased anthropogenic forcing is uncertain, in particular due to competing influences of the large projected warming at the surface in the Arctic, and at upper-levels in the tropics. In the present study two ensembles of fully-coupled 21st century climate simulations are used to analyze changes in the wintertime eddy-driven jet in the North Atlantic and the relation to the well-defined thermal signatures of climate change. The models project a robust reinforcement of the eddy-driven jet and a decrease in waviness and blockings, that we attribute to a narrowing of the westerly flow in mid-latitudes. Composite analyses suggest that this signal is driven by the opposite influence of Arctic and tropical warming on each flank of the jet. We find that a significant portion of the multi-model spread in the jet metrics can be explained by the ratio between these two signals. The tug-of-war between the two effects influences by how much wintertime cold extremes diminish at the end of the 21st century. Models with dominant tropical warming (i. e. narrower and stronger eddy-driven jet) exhibit less decrease in cold extremes with climate change, due to the maintenance of cooler conditions in the subpolar North Atlantic and subarctic seas compared to models with a predominance of Arctic warming.

Published
2018

36. Respective roles of direct GHG radiative forcing and induced Arctic sea ice loss on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation

Author

Julien Cattiaux, Fabrice Chauvin, Thomas Oudar, Emilia Sanchez-Gomez, Christophe Cassou, Laurent Terray, CERFACS [Toulouse], Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Météo France-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique (CERFACS), and CERFACS

Subjects
Drift ice, Arctic sea ice decline, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmospheric Science, geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Arctic dipole anomaly, Ice-albedo feedback, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Arctic ice pack, Arctic geoengineering, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Sea ice, Environmental science, Cryosphere, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

The large-scale and synoptic-scale Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation responses to projected late twenty-first century Arctic sea ice decline induced by increasing Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) concentrations are investigated using the CNRM-CM5 coupled model. An original protocol, based on a flux correction technique, allows isolating the respective roles of GHG direct radiative effect and induced Arctic sea ice loss under RCP8.5 scenario. In winter, the surface atmospheric response clearly exhibits opposing effects between GHGs increase and Arctic sea ice loss, leading to no significant pattern in the total response (particularly in the North Atlantic region). An analysis based on Eady growth rate shows that Arctic sea ice loss drives the weakening in the low-level meridional temperature gradient, causing a general decrease of the baroclinicity in the mid and high latitudes, whereas the direct impact of GHGs increase is more located in the mid-to-high troposphere. Changes in the flow waviness, evaluated from sinuosity and blocking frequency metrics, are found to be small relative to inter-annual variability.

Published
2017

37. Projected increase in diurnal and interdiurnal variations of European summer temperatures

Author

S. Parey, Robert Schoetter, Hervé Douville, Pascal Yiou, and Julien Cattiaux

Subjects
Coupled model intercomparison project, Geophysics, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Evapotranspiration, Diurnal temperature variation, Diurnal range, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Climate change, Environmental science, Mean radiant temperature, Water content, Cloud radiative effect
Abstract

Beyond the mean warming, climate change may modify the temperature variability, with consequences on extreme events causing societal and environmental impacts. Here we assess future changes in both the interdiurnal variability (ITV) and diurnal range (DTR) of European summer temperatures based on Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project projections under three 21st century scenarios. Both indices are projected to increase, with a rather good model agreement on the sign, while uncertainties remain on the amplitude. Extremely high day-to-day and diurnal temperature variations are expected to occur more frequently. Across models and scenarios, ITV and DTR increases vary primarily as functions of the decrease in surface evapotranspiration linked to the European summer drying. They are also partly explained by changes in the atmospheric dynamics and the surface cloud radiative effect. Model-dependent degrees of control of (i) ITV and DTR by mean temperature and (ii) surface evapotranspiration by soil moisture appear as helpful metrics to reduce future uncertainties in ITV and DTR projections.

Published
2015

38. Changes of western European heat wave characteristics projected by the CMIP5 ensemble

Author

Robert Schoetter, Julien Cattiaux, Hervé Douville, Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), and Météo France-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmospheric Science, Coupled model intercomparison project, Phase (waves), Forcing (mathematics), Heat wave, 7. Clean energy, Daily maximum temperature, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Environmental science, Climate model, Spatial extent, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, Intensity (heat transfer)
Abstract

We investigate heat waves defined as periods of at least 3 consecutive days of extremely high daily maximum temperature affecting at least 30 % of western Europe. This definition has been chosen to select heat waves that might impact western European electricity supply. Even though not all such heat waves threaten it, the definition allows to identify a sufficient number of events, the strongest being potentially harmful. The heat waves are characterised by their duration, spatial extent, intensity and severity. The heat wave characteristics are calculated for historical and future climate based on results of climate model simulations conducted during the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The uncertainty of future anthropogenic forcing is taken into account by analysing results for the Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The historical simulations are evaluated against the EOBS gridded station data. The CMIP5 ensemble median captures well the observed mean heat wave characteristics. However, no model simulates a heat wave as severe as observed during August 2003. Under future climate conditions, the heat waves become more frequent and have higher mean duration, extent and intensity. The ensemble spread is larger than the scenario uncertainty. The shift of the temperature distribution is more important for the increase of the cumulative heat wave severity than the broadening of the temperature distribution. However, the broadening leads to an amplification of the cumulative heat wave severity by a factor of 1.7 for RCP4.5 and 1.5 for RCP8.5.

Published
2014

39. Late Twenty-First-Century Changes in the Midlatitude Atmospheric Circulation in the CESM Large Ensemble

Author

Gudrun Magnusdottir, Steve Vavrus, Julien Cattiaux, Yannick Peings, Department of Earth System Science [Irvine] (ESS), University of California [Irvine] (UCI), University of California-University of California, Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Center for Climatic Research [Madison], Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison-University of Wisconsin-Madison, University of California [Irvine] (UC Irvine), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), and Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Waviness, Atmospheric circulation, Slowdown, Northern Hemisphere, Climate change, Oceanography, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate Action, Geomatic Engineering, Circulation (fluid dynamics), 13. Climate action, Climatology, Middle latitudes, Zonal flow, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental science, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

Projected changes in the midlatitude atmospheric circulation at the end of the twenty-first century are investigated using coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LENS). Different metrics are used to describe the response of the midlatitude atmospheric dynamics in 40 ensemble members covering the 1920–2100 period. Contrasted responses are identified depending on the season and longitudinal sector that are considered. In winter, a slowdown of the zonal flow and an increase in waviness is found over North America, while the European sector exhibits a reinforced westerly flow and decreased waviness. Extreme temperature events in midlatitudes are more sensitive to thermodynamical than dynamical changes, and a general decrease in the intensity of wintertime cold spells is found. Analyses of individual ensemble members reveal a large spread in circulation changes due to internal variability. Causes for this spread are found to be tied to the Arctic amplification in the Pacific–North American sector and to the polar stratosphere in the North Atlantic. A competition mechanism is also discussed between the midlatitude response to polar versus tropical changes. While the upper-tropospheric tropical warming pushes the jet stream poleward, in winter, Arctic amplification and the weaker polar vortex exert an opposite effect. This competition results in a narrowing of the jet path in the midlatitudes, leading to decreased/unchanged waviness/blockings. This interpretation somewhat reconciles conflicting results between the hypothesized effect of Arctic amplification and projected changes in midlatitude flow characteristics. This study also illustrates that further understanding of regional processes is critical for anticipating changes in the midlatitude dynamics.

Published
2017

40. Changes in North American Atmospheric Circulation and Extreme Weather: Influence of Arctic Amplification and Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover

Author

Jennifer A. Francis, Fuyao Wang, Jonathan E. Martin, Yannick Peings, Julien Cattiaux, Stephen J. Vavrus, Center for Climatic Research [Madison], Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison-University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences [Madison], University of Wisconsin-Madison, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey [New Brunswick] (RU), Rutgers University System (Rutgers), Department of Earth System Science [Irvine] (ESS), University of California [Irvine] (UC Irvine), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of California [Irvine] (UCI), University of California-University of California, and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmospheric Science, geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Arctic dipole anomaly, Atmospheric circulation, Northern Hemisphere, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Arctic, Arctic oscillation, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Middle latitudes, Sea ice, Polar amplification, Environmental science, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

This study tests the hypothesis that Arctic amplification (AA) of global warming remotely affects midlatitudes by promoting a weaker, wavier atmospheric circulation conducive to extreme weather. The investigation is based on the late twenty-first century over greater North America (20°–90°N, 50°–160°W) using 40 simulations from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble, spanning 1920–2100. AA is found to promote regionally varying ridging aloft (500 hPa) with strong seasonal differences reflecting the location of the strongest surface thermal forcing. During winter, maximum increases in future geopotential heights are centered over the Arctic Ocean, in conjunction with sea ice loss, but minimum height increases (troughing) occur to the south, over the continental United States. During summer the location of maximum height inflation shifts equatorward, forming an annular band across mid-to-high latitudes of the entire Northern Hemisphere. This band spans the continents, whose enhanced surface heating is aided by antecedent snow-cover loss and reduced terrestrial heat capacity. Through the thermal wind relationship, midtropospheric winds weaken on the equatorward flank of both seasonal ridging anomalies—mainly over Canada during winter and even more over the continental United States during summer—but strengthen elsewhere to form a dipole anomaly pattern in each season. Changes in circulation waviness, expressed as sinuosity, are inversely correlated with changes in zonal wind speed at nearly all latitudes, both in the projections and as observed during recent decades. Over the central United States during summer, the weaker and wavier flow promotes drying and enhanced heating, thus favoring more intense summer weather.

Published
2017

41. Explaining Extreme Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective

Author

Daniel Swain, Andrew Wittenberg, Stephen Stuart, Luke James Harrington, Sophie Lewis, and Julien Cattiaux

Subjects
Atmospheric Science, History, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Perspective (graphical), 0207 environmental engineering, Extreme events, Environmental ethics, 02 engineering and technology, 020701 environmental engineering, 01 natural sciences, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Published
2014

42. Erratum: Projected squeezing of the wintertime North-Atlantic jet (2018 Environ. Res. Lett. 13 074016)

Author

Gudrun Magnusdottir, Julien Cattiaux, Yannick Peings, and Stephen J. Vavrus

Subjects
Jet (fluid), Quality (physics), Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Resolution (electron density), Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Atmospheric sciences, Geology, General Environmental Science
Abstract

Author(s): Peings, Y; Cattiaux, J; Vavrus, SJ; Magnusdottir, G | Abstract: In the published paper, the quality of the figures has been compromised and so the figures with higher resolution have been added here. (Figure Presented).

Published
2019

43. Opposite CMIP3/CMIP5 trends in the wintertime Northern Annular Mode explained by combined local sea ice and remote tropical influences

Author

Christophe Cassou and Julien Cattiaux

Subjects
Coupled model intercomparison project, geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Geopotential height, Empirical orthogonal functions, Forcing (mathematics), 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Arctic ice pack, Geophysics, Arctic oscillation, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Sea ice, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Teleconnection
Abstract

[1] A crucial challenge in climate studies is to determine how warming trends due to anthropogenic forcing may affect the natural modes of atmospheric variability. In the northern extratropics, the leading pattern of atmospheric dynamics is known as the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), often computed as the first empirical orthogonal function of sea level pressure (SLP) or geopotential height at 500 mbar (Z500). Here we compare wintertime NAM changes estimated from previous (third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3)) versus ongoing (fifth phase (CMIP5)) generations of multimodel projections for the 21st century, under similar emission scenarios (A2 scenario versus 8.5 W.m−2Representative Concentration Pathway). CMIP3 projections exhibited a positive NAM trend, albeit this response differed between SLP and Z500, whereas CMIP5 projections rather reveal a negative trend, especially for Z500. We show that the CMIP3/CMIP5 discrepancies are mostly explained in early winter by the local consequence of faster Arctic sea ice loss in CMIP5 and in late winter by the remote influence through teleconnection of stronger warming in the western tropical Pacific. The attribution of CMIP3/CMIP5 discrepancies to the differences in emission scenarios is assessed by investigating NAM responses in common 1% CO2idealized experiments.

Published
2013

44. European temperatures in CMIP5: origins of present-day biases and future uncertainties

Author

Julien Cattiaux, Yannick Peings, Hervé Douville, Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), and Météo France-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
Mediterranean climate, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmospheric Science, Coupled model intercomparison project, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 0207 environmental engineering, 02 engineering and technology, Present day, Jet stream, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, 13. Climate action, General Circulation Model, Climatology, Radiative transfer, Climate sensitivity, Environmental science, 020701 environmental engineering, Snow cover, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

European temperatures and their projected changes under the 8.5 W/m2 Representative Concentration Pathway scenario are evaluated in an ensemble of 33 global climate models participating in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Respective contributions of large-scale dynamics and local processes to both biases and changes in temperatures, and to the inter-model spread, are then investigated from a recently proposed methodology based on weather regimes. On average, CMIP5 models exhibit a cold bias in winter, especially in Northern Europe. They overestimate summer temperatures in Central Europe, in association with a greater diurnal range than observed. The projected temperature increase is stronger in summer than in winter, with the highest summer warming occurring over Mediterranean regions. Links between biases and sensitivities are evidenced in winter, suggesting a potential influence of snow cover biases on the projected surface warming. A brief analysis of daily temperature extremes suggests that the intra-seasonal variability is projected to decrease (slightly increase) in winter (summer). Then, in order to understand model discrepancies in both present-day and future climates, we disentangle effects of large-scale atmospheric dynamics and regional physical processes. In particular, in winter, CMIP5 models simulate a stronger North-Atlantic jet stream than observed and, in contrast with CMIP3 results, the majority of them suggests an increased frequency of the negative phase of the North-Atlantic Oscillation under future warming. While large-scale circulation only has a minor contribution to ensemble-mean biases or changes, which are primarily dominated by non-dynamical processes, it substantially affects the inter-model spread. Finally, other sources of uncertainties, including the North-Atlantic warming and local radiative feedbacks related to snow cover and clouds, are briefly discussed.

Published
2013
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45. Climate variability and trends in downscaled high-resolution simulations and projections over Metropolitan France

Author

Mathieu Vrac, Laurent Li, Robert Vautard, Eric Martin, Thomas Noël, Sylvie Joussaume, Philippe Dandin, Julien Cattiaux, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Direction de la climatologie et des services climatiques (DCSC), Météo-France, Modelling the Earth Response to Multiple Anthropogenic Interactions and Dynamics (MERMAID), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École polytechnique (X)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC), Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique (CNRM-GAME), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Météo-France, Direction de la Climatologie, Toulouse, France

Subjects
Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 0207 environmental engineering, Climate change, 02 engineering and technology, 01 natural sciences, Metropolitan France, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Spatial ecology, Variance decomposition of forecast errors, MM5, Environmental science, Climate model, Precipitation, 020701 environmental engineering, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Downscaling
Abstract

International audience; In order to fulfill the society demand for climate information at the spatial scale allowing impact studies, long-term high-resolution climate simulations are produced, over an area covering metropolitan France. One of the major goals of this article is to investigate whether such simulations appropriately simulate the spatial and temporal variability of the current climate, using two simulation chains. These start from the global IPSL-CM4 climate model, using two regional models (LMDz and MM5) at moderate resolution (15-20 km), followed with a statistical downscaling method in order to reach a target resolution of 8 km. The statistical downscaling technique includes a non-parametric method that corrects the distribution by using high-resolution analyses over France. First the uncorrected simulations are evaluated against a set of high-resolution analyses, with a focus on temperature and precipitation. Uncorrected downscaled temperatures suffer from a cold bias that is present in the global model as well. Precipitations biases have a season- and model-dependent behavior. Dynamical models overestimate rainfall but with different patterns and amplitude, but both have underestimations in the South-Eastern area (Cevennes mountains) in winter. A variance decomposition shows that uncorrected simulations fairly well capture observed variances from inter-annual to high-frequency intra-seasonal time scales. After correction, distributions match with analyses by construction, but it is shown that spatial coherence, persistence properties of warm, cold and dry episodes also match to a certain extent. Another aim of the article is to describe the changes for future climate obtained using these simulations under Scenario A1B. Results are presented on the changes between current and mid-term future (2021-2050) averages and variability over France. Interestingly, even though the same global climate model is used at the boundaries, regional climate change responses from the two models significantly differ. © 2012 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Published
2012

46. Disruption of the European climate seasonal clock in a warming world

Author

Christophe Cassou, Julien Cattiaux, Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique (CERFACS), CERFACS, Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), and Météo France-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Advection, 0208 environmental biotechnology, Global warming, Climate change, Westerlies, 02 engineering and technology, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), Snow, 01 natural sciences, 020801 environmental engineering, 13. Climate action, Internal variability, Climatology, Greenhouse gas, Environmental science, Climate model, Social Sciences (miscellaneous), ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

The application of a new metric of seasonal onset over Europe to existing observational data sets indicates that the start of summer has advanced significantly over recent decades, a trend expected to continue under global warming. Temperatures over Europe are largely driven by the strength and inland penetration of the oceanic westerly flow. The wind influence depends on season: blocked westerlies, linked to high-pressure anomalies over Scandinavia, induce cold episodes in winter1 but warm conditions in summer2,3. Here, we propose to define the onset of the two seasons as the calendar day on which the daily circulation/temperature relationship switches sign. We have assessed this meteorologically based metric using several observational data sets and we provide evidence for an earlier onset of the summer date by ∼10 days between the 1960s and 2000s. Results from a climate model show that internal variability alone cannot explain this calendar advance. Rather, the earlier onset can be partly attributed to anthropogenic forcings. The modification of the zonal advection due to earlier disappearance of winter snow over Eastern Europe, which reduces the degree to which climate has continental properties, is mainly responsible for the present-day and near-future advance of the summer date in Western Europe. Our findings are in line with phenological-based trends (earlier spring events) reported for many living species over Europe4,5,6, for which we provide an alternative interpretation to the traditionally evoked local warming effect. Based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario, which assumes that greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise throughout the twenty-first century, a summer advance of ∼20 days compared with pre-industrial climate is expected by 2100, whereas no clear signal arises for winter onset.

Published
2016

47. How does large-scale nudging in a regional climate model contribute to improving the simulation of weather regimes and seasonal extremes over North America?

Author

Philippe Lucas-Picher, Julien Cattiaux, Alexandre Bougie, René Laprise, Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal (UQAM), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Atmospheric circulation, 0208 environmental biotechnology, 02 engineering and technology, Atmospheric sciences, Mean frequency, 01 natural sciences, 020801 environmental engineering, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Air temperature, Environmental science, Climate model, Atmospheric dynamics, Precipitation, Scale (map), ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

To determine the extent to which regional climate models (RCMs) preserve the large-scale atmospheric circulation of their driving fields, we investigate the ability of two RCM simulations to reproduce weather regimes over North America. Each RCM simulation is driven at its lateral boundaries by the ERA-Interim reanalysis, but one of them uses additional large-scale nudging (LSN) in the domain interior. Four weather regimes describing the variability of the large-scale atmospheric dynamics over North America are identified in winter and in summer. The analysis shows that for both seasons, the mean frequency of occurrence and persistence of the four weather regimes for the two RCM simulations are comparable to those of ERA-Interim. However, the frequency of false daily attributions of a specific regime on day-to-day and seasonal bases is significantly high, especially in summer, for the classic lateral-boundary driven simulation. Those false attributions are largely corrected with LSN. Using composite means for each weather regimes, substantial 2-m air temperature and precipitation anomalies associated to the large-scale atmospheric circulation are found. These anomalies are larger in winter than in summer. The validation of the simulations reveals that the 2-m air temperature bias is dependent on the weather regimes, especially in summer. Conversely, the precipitation bias varies significantly from one regime to another, especially in winter. Overall, the results suggest that a classic RCM simulates the mean statistics of the weather regimes well, but that LSN is necessary to reproduce daily weather regimes and seasonal anomalies that match with the driving field.

Published
2016

48. North-Atlantic dynamics and European temperature extremes in the IPSL model: sensitivity to atmospheric resolution

Author

Julien Cattiaux, Ara Arakelian, Benjamin Quesada, Pascal Yiou, Francis Codron, Robert Vautard, Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École polytechnique (X)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)

Subjects
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Horizontal resolution, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Summer heat, [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology, Jet stream, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, 13. Climate action, General Circulation Model, Climatology, Environmental science, Sensitivity (control systems), 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

International audience; The variability of the European climate is mostly controlled by the unstable nature of the North-Atlantic dynamics, especially in wintertime. The intra-seasonal to inter-annual fluctuations of atmospheric circulations has often been described as the alternation between a limited number of preferential weather regimes. Such discrete description can be justified by the multi-modality of the latitudinal position of the jet stream. In addition, seasonal extremes in European temperatures are generally associated with an exceptional persistence into one weather regime. Here we investigate the skill of the IPSL model to both simulate North-Atlantic weather regimes and European temperature extremes, including summer heat waves and winter cold spells. We use a set of eight IPSL experiments, with six different horizontal resolutions and the two versions used in CMIP3 and CMIP5. We find that despite a substantial deficit in the simulated poleward peak of the jet stream, the IPSL model represents weather regimes fairly well. A significant improvement is found for all horizontal resolutions higher than the one used in CMIP3, while the increase in vertical resolution included in the CMIP5 version tends to improve the wintertime dynamics. In addition to a recurrent cold bias over Europe, the IPSL model generally overestimates (underestimates) the indices of winter cold spells (summer heat waves) such as frequencies or durations. We find that the increase in horizontal resolution almost always improves these statistics, while the influence of vertical resolution is less clear. Overall, the CMIP5 version of the IPSL model appears to carry promising improvements in the simulation of the European climate variability.

Published
2012

49. Projection des changements climatiques futurs

Author

Philippe Ciais, Pascal Yiou, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Olivier Boucher, Aurore Voldoire, Julien Cattiaux, Fabrice Chauvin, Laurent Bopp, Juliette Mignot, Céline Guivarch, Eric Guilyardi, Jessica Vial, Eric Brun, David Salas y Mélia, Pascale Braconnot, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École polytechnique (X)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC), Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique (CNRM-GAME), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modelling the Earth Response to Multiple Anthropogenic Interactions and Dynamics (MERMAID), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Processus de la variabilité climatique tropicale et impacts (PARVATI), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement (CIRED), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-AgroParisTech-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), and Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-AgroParisTech-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
sensibilité climatique, 13. Climate action, [SHS.ENVIR]Humanities and Social Sciences/Environmental studies, événement extrême, prévision décennale, projection climatique, prévision du climat, scénario d'émissions, réchauffement climatique, modification anthropique
Abstract

International audience; Climate models provide the opportunity to anticipate how the climate system may change due to anthropogenic activities during the 21st century. Studies are based on numerical simulations that explore the evolution of the mean climate and its variability according to different socio-economic scenarios. We present a selection of results from phase 5 of the Climate model intercomparison project (CMIP5) with an illustrative focus on the two French models that participated to this exercise.We describe the effects of human perturbations upon surface temperature, precipitation, the cryosphere, but also extreme weather events and the carbon cycle. Results show a number of robust features, on the amplitude and geographical patterns of the expected changes and on the processes at play in these changes. They also show the limitations of such a prospective exercise and persistent uncertainties on some key aspects.; Les modèles de climat offrent la possibilité d'anticiper la façon dont le système climatique risque d'être modifié par l'activité humaine au cours du XXIe siècle. Les études s'appuient sur des simulations numériques qui explorent l'évolution du climat moyen et de sa variabilité en fonction de différents scénarios socio-économiques. Nous présentons une sélection de résultats du projet CMIP5 d'intercomparaison demodèles de climat avec un focus illustratif sur les deux modèles français ayant participé à cet exercice. On y décrit les effets attendus des perturbations humaines sur la température de surface, les précipitations, la cryosphère mais aussi les extrêmes météorologiques et le cycle du carbone. Les résultats font ressortir de nombreux aspects fiables, que ce soit sur l'amplitude et la répartition géographique des changements attendus ou sur les processus mis en jeu dans ces changements. Ils montrent aussi les limites de l'exercice prospectif et des incertitudes persistantes sur certains points clés.

Published
2015

50. Evolution du climat depuis 1850

Author

Gérald Giraud, Serge Planton, Laurent Terray, Fabrice Chauvin, Eric Brun, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Julien Cattiaux, Matthieu Chevallier, Hervé Douville, Philippe Ciais, Laurent Bopp, Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Mercator Océan, Société Civile CNRS Ifremer IRD Météo-France SHOM, Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique (CERFACS), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), and CERFACS

Subjects
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Geography, 13. Climate action, Climate system, Global warming, Surface warming, Extreme events, Physical geography, Temperature a, Humanities
Abstract

EnglishObservations of the Earth's surface temperature since 1850, and atmospheric or oceanic observations that have increased in number over the past decades, provide a coherent picture of a unequivocal climate warming since the middle of the 20th century. This warming also manifests itself across metropolitan France where it is accompanied by a significant increase in the severity of droughts since the end of the 1980s. Some trends, including those of most of extreme events, remain indistinguishable from climate variability at the decadal to multi-decadal time scale. However, there is almost no doubt on the attribution of the most part of the Earth's surface warming to human activities, and anthropogenic fingerprint is detectable in a large number of observed trends in the different components of the climate system over the same period. The interpretation of the slowdown of global warming over the last fifteen years remains a research challenge whose first findings begin to emerge. francaisLes observations de temperature a la surface de la Terre realisees depuis 1850 et les observations tant atmospheriques qu'oceaniques qui se sont multipliees au cours des dernieres decennies donnent l'image coherente d'un rechauffement climatique sans equivoque depuis le milieu du XXe siecle. Ce rechauffement se manifeste aussi a l'echelle de la France metropolitaine ou il s'accompagne d'une augmentation sensible de la severite des secheresses depuis la fin des annees 1980. Certaines tendances, concernant notamment la plupart des evenements extremes, sont indiscernables de la variabilite climatique des echelles decennale a multidecennale. Cependant, l'attribution de l'essentiel du rechauffement en surface du dernier demi-siecle aux activites humaines ne fait quasiment plus aucun doute et l'empreinte anthropique est detectable dans nombre de tendances observees dans les differentes composantes du systeme climatique sur la meme periode. L'interpretation du ralentissement du rechauffement sur les quinze dernieres annees reste un enjeu de recherche dont les premieres conclusions commencent a se dessiner.

Published
2015

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