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Uncrewed aircraft system (UAS) observations from the Lower Atmospheric Profiling Studies at Elevation–A Remotely-Piloted Aircraft Team Experiment (LAPSE-RATE) field campaign were assimilated into a high-resolution configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. The impact of assimilating targeted UAS observations in addition to surface observations was compared to that obtained when assimilating surface observations alone using observing system experiments (OSEs) for a terrain-driven flow case and a convection initiation (CI) case observed within Colorado’s San Luis Valley (SLV). The assimilation of UAS observations in addition to surface observations results in a clear increase in skill for both flow regimes over that obtained when assimilating surface observations alone. For the terrain-driven flow case, the UAS observations improved the representation of thermal stratification across the northern SLV, which produced stronger upvalley flow over the eastern half of the SLV that better matched the observations. For the CI case, the UAS observations improved the representation of the pre-convective environment by reducing dry biases across the SLV and over the surrounding terrain. This led to earlier CI and more organized convection over the foothills that spilled outflows into the SLV, ultimately helping to increase low-level convergence and CI there. In addition, the importance of UAS capturing an outflow that originated over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and triggered CI is discussed. These outflows and subsequent CI were not well captured in the simulation that assimilated surface observations alone. Observations obtained with a fleet of UAS are shown to notably improve high-resolution analyses and short-term predictions of two very different mesogamma-scale weather events.

Cold-air pools (CAPs), or stable atmospheric boundary layers that form within topographic basins, are associated with poor air quality, hazardous weather, and low wind energy output. Accurate prediction of CAP dynamics presents a challenge for mesoscale forecast models in part because CAPs occur in regions of complex terrain, where traditional turbulence parameterizations may not be appropriate. This study examines the effects of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme and horizontal diffusion treatment on CAP prediction in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Model runs with a one-dimensional (1D) PBL scheme and Smagorinsky-like horizontal diffusion are compared with runs that use a new three-dimensional (3D) PBL scheme to calculate turbulent fluxes. Simulations are completed in a nested configuration with 3-km/750-m horizontal grid spacing over a 10-day case study in the Columbia River basin, and results are compared with observations from the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project. Using event-averaged error metrics, potential temperature and wind speed errors are shown to decrease both with increased horizontal grid resolution and with improved treatment of horizontal diffusion over steep terrain. The 3D PBL scheme further reduces errors relative to a standard 1D PBL approach. Error reduction is accentuated during CAP erosion, when turbulent mixing plays a more dominant role in the dynamics. Last, the 3D PBL scheme is shown to reduce near-surface overestimates of turbulence kinetic energy during the CAP event. The sensitivity of turbulence predictions to the master length-scale formulation in the 3D PBL parameterization is also explored. Significance Statement In this article, we demonstrate how a new framework for modeling atmospheric turbulence improves cold pool predictions, using a case study from January 2017 in the Columbia River basin (U.S. Pacific Northwest). Cold pools are regions of cold, stagnant air that form within valleys or basins, and improved forecasts could help to mitigate the risks they pose to air quality, transportation, and wind energy production. For the chosen case study, our tests show a reduction in temperature and wind speed errors by up to a factor of 2–3 relative to standard model options. These results strongly motivate continued development of the framework as well as its application to other complex weather events.

Mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are generally considered more accurate than reanalysis products in characterizing the wind resource at heights of interest for wind energy, given their finer spatial resolution and more comprehensive physics. However, advancements in the latest ERA-5 reanalysis product motivate an assessment on whether ERA-5 can model wind speeds as well as a state-of-the-art NWP model – the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. We consider this research question for both simple terrain and offshore applications. Specifically, we compare wind profiles from ERA-5 and the preliminary WRF runs of the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit Long-term Ensemble Dataset (WTK-LED) to those observed by lidars at a site in Oklahoma, United States, and in a United States Atlantic offshore wind energy area. We find that ERA-5 shows a significant negative bias (∼-1ms-1) at both locations, with a larger bias at the land-based site. WTK-LED-predicted wind speed profiles show a limited negative bias (∼-0.5ms-1) offshore and a slight positive bias (∼+0.5ms-1) at the land-based site. On the other hand, we find that ERA-5 outperforms WTK-LED in terms of the centered root-mean-square error (cRMSE) and correlation coefficient, for both the land-based and offshore cases, in all atmospheric stability conditions. We find that WTK-LED's higher cRMSE is caused by its tendency to overpredict the amplitude of the wind speed diurnal cycle. At the land-based site, this is partially caused by wind plant wake effects not being accurately captured by WTK-LED.

Offshore wind energy deployment in the US is expected to increase in the years to come, with proposed wind farm sites located in regions with high-risk for tropical cyclones. Yet, the wind turbine design criteria outlined by the International Electrotechnical Commission for extreme events may not account for the severe wind conditions in tropical cyclones, even the weaker storms that are likely to reach mid-Atlantic wind resource areas. To evaluate if current design standards capture the extreme conditions of these storms, we perform idealized large-eddy simulations of five tropical cyclones (two category-1, two category-2, and one category-3 storms) using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Wind conditions near the eyewall of category-1, category-2 and category-3 storms can exceed current design standards for offshore wind turbines. Hub-height winds can exceed design criteria for Class I and Class T turbines for 50-year recurrence periods. Moreover, wind speed shear across the turbine rotor layer is larger than assumed in design specifications. Vertical variations in wind direction across the turbine rotor layer are also large for tropical cyclones of all intensity levels, suggesting design standards should include veer, which can amplify loads in wind turbines.

The mid-Atlantic will experience rapid wind plant development due to its promising wind resource located near large population centers. Wind turbines and wind plants create wakes, or regions of reduced wind speed, that may negatively affect downwind turbines and plants. Long mid-Atlantic wakes are causing growing concern. We evaluate wake variability and annual energy production with the first year-long modeling assessment using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, deploying 12-MW turbines across the domain at a density of 3.14 MW km−2, matching the planned density of 3 MW km−2. Using a series of simulations with no wind plants, one wind plant, and complete build-out of lease areas, we calculate wake effects and distinguish the effect of wakes generated internally within one plant from those generated externally between plants. The strongest wakes, propagating 58 km, occur in summertime stable stratification, just when New England’s grid demand peaks in summer. The seasonal variability of wakes in this offshore region is much stronger than diurnal variability of wakes. Overall, the mean year-long wake impacts reduce power output by 35.9 %. Internal wakes cause greater year-long power losses (27.4 %) compared to external wakes (14.1 %). Additional simulations quantify wake uncertainty by modifying the added amount of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) from turbines, introducing power output variability of 3.8 %. Finally, we compare annual energy production (AEP) to New England grid demand and find that the lease areas can supply roughly 60 % of annual load.

Wind plants slow down the approaching wind, a phenomenon known as blockage. Wind plant blockage undermines turbine performance for front-row turbines and potentially for turbines deeper into the array. We use large-eddy simulations to characterize blockage upstream of a finite-size wind plant in flat terrain for different atmospheric stability conditions, and investigate the physical mechanisms modifying the flow upstream of the turbines. To examine the influence of atmospheric stability, we compare simulations of two stably stratified boundary layers using the Weather Research and Forecasting model in large-eddy simulation mode, representing wind turbines using the generalized actuator disk approach. For a wind plant, a faster cooling rate at the surface, which produces stronger stably stratified flow in the boundary layer, amplifies blockage. As a novelty, we investigate the physical mechanisms amplifying blockage by evaluating the different terms in the momentum conservation equation within the turbine rotor layer. The velocity deceleration upstream of a wind plant is caused by an adverse pressure gradient and momentum advection out of the turbine rotor layer. The cumulative deceleration of the flow upstream of the front-row turbines sets in motion a secondary circulation. The horizontal flow is diverted vertically, reducing momentum availability in the turbine rotor layer. Although the adverse pressure gradient upstream of the wind plant remains unchanged with atmospheric stability, vertical momentum advection is amplified in the more strongly stable boundary layer, mainly by larger shear of the horizontal velocity, thus increasing the blockage effect.

Wind plant wake impacts can be estimated with a number of simulation methodologies, each with its own fidelity and sensitivity to model inputs. In turbine-free mesoscale simulations, hub-height wind speeds can significantly vary with the choice of a planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme. However, the sensitivity of wind plant wakes to a PBL scheme has not been explored because, until now, wake parameterizations were only compatible with one PBL scheme. We couple the Fitch wind farm parameterization with the new NCAR 3DPBL scheme and compare the resulting wakes to those simulated with a widely used PBL scheme. First, we simulate a wind plant in a pseudo-steady state under idealized stable, neutral, and unstable conditions with two PBL schemes: MYNN and the NCAR 3DPBL. For these idealized scenarios, MYNN consistently predicts internal wakes that are 0.25–1.5 m s−1 stronger than internal 3DPBL wakes. However, because MYNN predicts stronger inflow winds than the 3DPBL, MYNN predicts average capacity factors that are as large as 13 percentage points higher than with the 3DPBL, depending on the stability. To extend this sensitivity study, we conduct a month-long case study with both PBL schemes centered on the Vineyard Wind 1 lease area in the mid-Atlantic United States. Under stable and unstable conditions averaged across the month, MYNN again predicts stronger internal waking—by about 0.25 m s−1. However, again due to stronger plant inflow wind speeds in MYNN, the 3DPBL generates 4.7 %–7.8 % less power than MYNN in August 2020, depending on the turbine build-out scenario. Differences between PBL schemes can be even larger for individual instances in time. These simulations suggest that PBL schemes represent a meaningful source of modeled wind resource uncertainty; therefore, we recommend incorporating PBL variability into future wind plant planning sensitivity studies as well as wind forecasting studies.

Uncrewed aircraft system (UAS) observations collected during the 2018 Lower Atmospheric Process Studies at Elevation—a Remotely Piloted Aircraft Team Experiment (LAPSE-RATE) field campaign were assimilated into a high-resolution configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model using an ensemble Kalman filter. The benefit of UAS observations was assessed for a terrain-driven (drainage and upvalley) flow event that occurred within Colorado’s San Luis Valley (SLV) using independent observations. The analysis and prediction of the strength, depth, and horizontal extent of drainage flow from the Saguache Canyon and the subsequent transition to upvalley and up-canyon flow were improved relative to that obtained both without data assimilation (benchmark) and when only surface observations were assimilated. Assimilation of UAS observations greatly improved the analyses of vertical variations in temperature, relative humidity, and winds at multiple locations in the northern portion of the SLV, with reductions in both bias and the root-mean-square error of roughly 40% for each variable relative to the benchmark run. Despite these noted improvements, some biases remain that were tied to measurement error and/or the impact of the boundary layer parameterization on vertically spreading the observations, both of which require further exploration. The results presented here highlight how observations obtained with a fleet of profiling UAS improve limited-area, high-resolution analyses and short-term forecasts in complex terrain.

Wind lidars are widespread and important tools in atmospheric observations. An intrinsic part of lidar measurement error is due to atmospheric variability in the remote-sensing scan volume. This study describes and quantifies the distribution of measurement error due to turbulence in varying atmospheric stability. While the lidar error model is general, we demonstrate the approach using large ensembles of virtual WindCube V2 lidar performing a profiling Doppler-beam-swinging scan in quasi-stationary large-eddy simulations (LESs) of convective and stable boundary layers. Error trends vary with the stability regime, time averaging of results, and observation height. A systematic analysis of the observation error explains dominant mechanisms and supports the findings of the empirical results. Treating the error under a random variable framework allows for informed predictions about the effect of different configurations or conditions on lidar performance. Convective conditions are most prone to large errors (up to 1.5 m s−1 in 1 Hz wind speed in strong convection), driven by the large vertical velocity variances in convective conditions and the high elevation angle of the scanning beams (62∘). Range-gate weighting induces a negative bias into the horizontal wind speeds near the surface shear layer (−0.2 m s−1 in the stable test case). Errors in the horizontal wind speed and direction computed from the wind components are sensitive to the background wind speed but have negligible dependence on the relative orientation of the instrument. Especially during low winds and in the presence of large errors in the horizontal velocity estimates, the reported wind speed is subject to a systematic positive bias (up to 0.4 m s−1 in 1 Hz measurements in strong convection). Vector time-averaged measurements can improve the behavior of the error distributions (reducing the 10 min wind speed error standard deviation to m s−1 and the bias to m s−1 in strong convection) with a predictable effectiveness related to the number of decorrelated samples in the time window. Hybrid schemes weighting the 10 min scalar- and vector-averaged lidar measurements are shown to be effective at reducing the wind speed biases compared to cup measurements in most of the simulated conditions, with time averages longer than 10 min recommended for best use in some unstable conditions. The approach in decomposing the error mechanisms with the help of the LES flow field could be extended to more complex measurement scenarios and scans.

Wind energy is anticipated to play a central role in enabling a rapid transition from fossil fuels to a system based largely on renewable power. For wind power to fulfill its expected role as the backbone—providing nearly half of the electrical energy—of a renewable-based, carbon-neutral energy system, critical challenges around design, development, and deployment of land and offshore technologies must be addressed. During the past three years, the wind research community has invested significant effort toward understanding the nature and implications of these challenges and identifying associated gaps. The outcomes of these efforts are summarized in a series of ten articles, some under review by Wind Energy Science (WES) and others planned for submission during the coming months. This letter explains the genesis, significance, and impacts of these efforts.

On 18 June 2019, National Weather Service (NWS) radar reflectivity data indicated the presence of thunderstorm-generated outflow propagating east-southeastward near Lubbock, Texas. A section of the outflow boundary encountered a wind farm and then experienced a notable reduction in ground-relative velocity, suggesting that interactions with the wind farm impacted the outflow boundary progression. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting model and its wind farm parameterization to address the extent to which wind farms can modify the near-surface environment of thunderstorm outflow boundaries. We conduct two simulations of the June 2019 outflow event: one containing the wind farm and one without. We specifically investigate the outflow speed of the section of the boundary that encounters the wind farm and the associated impacts on near-surface wind speed, moisture, temperature, and changes to precipitation features as the storm and associated outflow pass over the wind farm domain. The NWS radar and nearby West Texas Mesonet surface stations provide observations for validation of the simulations. The presence of the wind farm in the simulation clearly slows the progress of the outflow boundary by over 20 km h−1, similar to what was observed. Simulated perturbations of surface wind speed, temperature, and moisture associated with outflow passage were delayed by up to 6 min when the wind farm was present in the simulation compared to the simulation without the wind farm. However, impacts on precipitation were localized and transient, with no change to total accumulation across the domain.

The ascent of stably stratified air over a mountain barrier can trigger the generation of mountain waves. Mountain waves occur frequently over the Columbia River Gorge in western North America and can impact wind power generation over the area. Therefore, predicting the details of mountain waves events (e.g., dominant wavelength, timing, and duration) can be very valuable for the wind energy community. In this study, the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate mountain waves and their impact on hub-height wind speed is investigated. Our results suggest that the WRF model has moderate skill in simulating observed mountain wave. Further, given WRF predictions of wavelength range and wave period, the Fast Fourier Transform can calculate the simulated mountain wave impact on hub-height wind speed. The resulting wind speeds agree well with SoDAR observations in terms of both magnitude and pattern. Finally, for the simulated cases, WRF consistently predicts impacts of significant mountain wave events about an hour earlier than the actual observations. The sensitivities as well as uncertainties associated with our methodology are discussed in detail.

The second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) is a multiagency field campaign held in the Columbia Gorge area (October 2015–March 2017). The main goal of the project is to understand and improve the forecast skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models in complex terrain, particularly beneficial for the wind energy industry. This region is well known for its excellent wind resource. One of the biggest challenges for wind power production is the accurate forecasting of wind ramp events (large changes of generated power over short periods of time). Poor forecasting of the ramps requires large and sudden adjustments in conventional power generation, ultimately increasing the costs of power. A Ramp Tool and Metric (RT&M) was developed during the first WFIP experiment, held in the U.S. Great Plains (September 2011–August 2012). The RT&M was designed to explicitly measure the skill of NWP models at forecasting wind ramp events. Here we apply the RT&M to 80-m (turbine hub-height) wind speeds measured by 19 sodars and three lidars, and to forecasts from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), 3-km, and from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Nest (HRRRNEST), 750-m horizontal grid spacing, models. The diurnal and seasonal distribution of ramp events are analyzed, finding a noticeable diurnal variability for spring and summer but less for fall and especially winter. Also, winter has fewer ramps compared to the other seasons. The model skill at forecasting ramp events, including the impact of the modification to the model physical parameterizations, was finally investigated.

Current turbulence parameterizations in numerical weather prediction models at the mesoscale assume a local equilibrium between production and dissipation of turbulence. As this assumption does not hold at fine horizontal resolutions, improved ways to represent turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) dissipation rate (ϵ) are needed. Here, we use a 6-week data set of turbulence measurements from 184 sonic anemometers in complex terrain at the Perdigão field campaign to suggest improved representations of dissipation rate. First, we demonstrate that the widely used Mellor, Yamada, Nakanishi, and Niino (MYNN) parameterization of TKE dissipation rate leads to a large inaccuracy and bias in the representation of ϵ. Next, we assess the potential of machine-learning techniques to predict TKE dissipation rate from a set of atmospheric and terrain-related features. We train and test several machine-learning algorithms using the data at Perdigão, and we find that the models eliminate the bias MYNN currently shows in representing ϵ, while also reducing the average error by up to almost 40 %. Of all the variables included in the algorithms, TKE is the variable responsible for most of the variability of ϵ, and a strong positive correlation exists between the two. These results suggest further consideration of machine-learning techniques to enhance parameterizations of turbulence in numerical weather prediction models.

Most megawatt-scale wind turbines align themselves into the wind as defined by the wind speed at or near the center of the rotor (hub height). However, both wind speed and wind direction can change with height across the area swept by the turbine blades. A turbine aligned to hub-height winds might experience suboptimal or superoptimal power production, depending on the changes in the vertical profile of wind, also known as shear. Using observed winds and power production over 6 months at a site in the high plains of North America, we quantify the sensitivity of a wind turbine's power production to wind speed shear and directional veer as well as atmospheric stability. We measure shear using metrics such as α (the log-law wind shear exponent), βbulk (a measure of bulk rotor-disk-layer veer), βtotal (a measure of total rotor-disk-layer veer), and rotor-equivalent wind speed (REWS; a measure of actual momentum encountered by the turbine by accounting for shear). We also consider the REWS with the inclusion of directional veer, REWSθ, although statistically significant differences in power production do not occur between REWS and REWSθ at our site. When REWS differs from the hub-height wind speed (as measured by either the lidar or a transfer function-corrected nacelle anemometer), the turbine power generation also differs from the mean power curve in a statistically significant way. This change in power can be more than 70 kW or up to 5 % of the rated power for a single 1.5 MW utility-scale turbine. Over a theoretical 100-turbine wind farm, these changes could lead to instantaneous power prediction gains or losses equivalent to the addition or loss of multiple utility-scale turbines. At this site, REWS is the most useful metric for segregating the turbine's power curve into high and low cases of power production when compared to the other shear or stability metrics. Therefore, REWS enables improved forecasts of power production.

Fire safety, aviation, wind energy, and structural-engineering operations are impacted by thunderstorm outflow boundaries or gust fronts (GFs) particularly when they occur in mountainous terrain. For example, during the 2013 Arizona Yarnell Hill Fire, 19 firefighters were killed as a result of sudden changes in fire behavior triggered by a passing GF. Knowledge of GF behavior in complex terrain also determines departure and landing operations at nearby airports, and GFs can induce exceptional structural loads on wind turbines. While most examinations of GF characteristics focus on well-organized convection in areas such as the Great Plains, here the investigation is broadened to explore GF characteristics that evolve near the complex terrain of the Colorado Rocky Mountains. Using in situ observations from meteorological towers, as well as data from wind-profiling lidars and a microwave radiometer, 24 GF events are assessed to quantify changes in wind, temperature, humidity, and turbulence in the lowest 300 m AGL as these GFs passed over the instruments. The changes in magnitude for all variables are on average weaker in the Colorado Front Range than those typically observed from organized, severe storms in flatter regions. Most events from this study experience an increase in wind speed from 1 to 8 m s−1, relative humidity from 1% to 8%, and weak vertical motion from 0.3 to 3.6 m s−1 during GF passage while temperature drops by 0.2°–3°C and turbulent kinetic energy peaks at >4 m2 s−2. Vertical profiles reveal that these changes vary little with height in the lowest 300 m.

Because unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) offer new perspectives on the atmosphere, their use in atmospheric science is expanding rapidly. In support of this growth, the International Society for Atmospheric Research Using Remotely-Piloted Aircraft (ISARRA) has been developed and has convened annual meetings and “flight weeks.” The 2018 flight week, dubbed the Lower Atmospheric Profiling Studies at Elevation–A Remotely-Piloted Aircraft Team Experiment (LAPSE-RATE), involved a 1-week deployment to Colorado’s San Luis Valley. Between 14 and 20 July 2018 over 100 students, scientists, engineers, pilots, and outreach coordinators conducted an intensive field operation using unmanned aircraft and ground-based assets to develop datasets, community, and capabilities. In addition to a coordinated “Community Day” which offered a chance for groups to share their aircraft and science with the San Luis Valley community, LAPSE-RATE participants conducted nearly 1,300 research flights totaling over 250 flight hours. The measurements collected have been used to advance capabilities (instrumentation, platforms, sampling techniques, and modeling tools), conduct a detailed system intercomparison study, develop new collaborations, and foster community support for the use of UAS in atmospheric science.

Complex-terrain locations often have repeatable near-surface wind patterns, such as synoptic gap flows and local thermally forced flows. An example is the Columbia River Valley in east-central Oregon-Washington, a significant wind-energy-generation region and the site of the Second Wind-Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2). Data from three Doppler lidars deployed during WFIP2 define and characterize summertime wind regimes and their large-scale contexts, and provide insight into NWP model errors by examining differences in the ability of a model [NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid-Refresh (HRRR-version1)] to forecast wind-speed profiles for different regimes. Seven regimes were identified based on daily time series of the lidar-measured rotor-layer winds, which then suggested two broad categories. First, in three regimes the primary dynamic forcing was the large-scale pressure gradient. Second, in two regimes the dominant forcing was the diurnal heating-cooling cycle (regional sea-breeze-type dynamics), including the marine intrusion previously described, which generates strong nocturnal winds over the region. The other two included a hybrid regime and a non-conforming regime. For the large-scale pressure-gradient regimes, HRRR had wind-speed biases of ~1 m s−1 and RMSEs of 2-3 m s−1. Errors were much larger for the thermally forced regimes, owing to the premature demise of the strong nocturnal flow in HRRR. Thus, the more dominant the role of surface heating in generating the flow, the larger the errors. Major errors could result from surface heating of the atmosphere, boundary-layer responses to that heating, and associated terrain interactions. Measurement/modeling research programs should be aimed at determining which modeled processes produce the largest errors, so those processes can be improved and errors reduced.

The primary goal of the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) is to advance the state-of-the-art of wind energy forecasting in complex terrain. To achieve this goal, a comprehensive 18-month field measurement campaign was conducted in the region of the Columbia River basin. The observations were used to diagnose and quantify systematic forecast errors in the operational High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model during weather events of particular concern to wind energy forecasting. Examples of such events are cold pools, gap flows, thermal troughs/marine pushes, mountain waves, and topographic wakes. WFIP2 model development has focused on the boundary layer and surface-layer schemes, cloud–radiation interaction, the representation of drag associated with subgrid-scale topography, and the representation of wind farms in the HRRR. Additionally, refinements to numerical methods have helped to improve some of the common forecast error modes, especially the high wind speed biases associated with early erosion of mountain–valley cold pools. This study describes the model development and testing undertaken during WFIP2 and demonstrates forecast improvements. Specifically, WFIP2 found that mean absolute errors in rotor-layer wind speed forecasts could be reduced by 5%–20% in winter by improving the turbulent mixing lengths, horizontal diffusion, and gravity wave drag. The model improvements made in WFIP2 are also shown to be applicable to regions outside of complex terrain. Ongoing and future challenges in model development will also be discussed.

In 2015 the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) initiated a 4-yr study, the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2), to improve the representation of boundary layer physics and related processes in mesoscale models for better treatment of scales applicable to wind and wind power forecasts. This goal challenges numerical weather prediction (NWP) models in complex terrain in large part because of inherent assumptions underlying their boundary layer parameterizations. The WFIP2 effort involved the wind industry, universities, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the DOE’s national laboratories in an integrated observational and modeling study. Observations spanned 18 months to assure a full annual cycle of continuously recorded observations from remote sensing and in situ measurement systems. The study area comprised the Columbia basin of eastern Washington and Oregon, containing more than 6 GW of installed wind capacity. Nests of observational systems captured important atmospheric scales from mesoscale to NWP subgrid scale. Model improvements targeted NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model to facilitate transfer of improvements to National Weather Service (NWS) operational forecast models, and these modifications have already yielded quantitative improvements for the short-term operational forecasts. This paper describes the general WFIP2 scope and objectives, the particular scientific challenges of improving wind forecasts in complex terrain, early successes of the project, and an integrated approach to archiving observations and model output. It provides an introduction for a set of more detailedBAMSpapers addressing WFIP2 observational science, modeling challenges and solutions, incorporation of forecasting uncertainty into decision support tools for the wind industry, and advances in coupling improved mesoscale models to microscale models that can represent interactions between wind plants and the atmosphere.

Coupling between mesoscale and large eddy simulation (LES) is critically important for many atmospheric model applications, from predictions of wind energy to fire propagation. The grid‐nesting technique enables bridging between vastly different scales without incurring prohibitive computational costs. However, the transition from coarser to finer resolutions often requires a large number of grid points from inflow boundaries for the development of fine‐scale turbulence features in the LES domain. Recently, the cell perturbation method (CPM) was developed to reduce the turbulence development region with high computational efficiency. Herein, we explore a new method based on the CPM that uses force perturbations in both the horizontal and vertical directions (Force Cell Perturbation Method) instead of the potential temperature perturbations in the original CPM, as an attempt to further explore the performance of the random perturbation techniques. This approach is tested for a neutral and a convective atmospheric boundary layer under idealized conditions. Overall, similar performance is found between the optimal configurations of the CPM and the Force Cell Perturbation Method pointing to the robustness of this family of perturbation methods in accelerating turbulence generation in nested domains. Vertical force perturbations performed better than horizontal force perturbations for both atmospheric stability conditions. The CPM performed best under convective stability conditions. The combination of the force and potential temperature perturbations is found to provide no additional performance improvement over the stand‐alone application of the individual methods.

To improve parameterizations of the turbulence dissipation rate (ϵ) in numerical weather prediction models, the temporal and spatial variability of ϵ must be assessed. In this study, we explore influences on the variability of ϵ at various scales in the Columbia River Gorge during the WFIP2 field experiment between 2015 and 2017. We calculate ϵ from five sonic anemometers all deployed in a ∼4 km2 area as well as from two scanning Doppler lidars and four profiling Doppler lidars, whose locations span a ∼300 km wide region. We retrieve ϵ from the sonic anemometers using the second-order structure function method, from the scanning lidars with the azimuth structure function approach, and from the profiling lidars with a novel technique using the variance of the line-of-sight velocity. The turbulence dissipation rate shows large spatial variability, even at the microscale, especially during nighttime stable conditions. Orographic features have a strong impact on the variability of ϵ, with the correlation between ϵ at different stations being highly influenced by terrain. ϵ shows larger values in sites located downwind of complex orographic structures or in wind farm wakes. A clear diurnal cycle in ϵ is found, with daytime convective conditions determining values over an order of magnitude higher than nighttime stable conditions. ϵ also shows a distinct seasonal cycle, with differences greater than an order of magnitude between average ϵ values in summer and winter.

Because flow recirculation can generate significant amounts of turbulence, it can impact the success of wind energy projects. This study uses unique Doppler lidar observations to quantify occurrences of flow recirculation on lee sides of ridges. An extensive dataset of observations of flow over complex terrain is available from the Perdigão 2017 field campaign over a period of 3 months. The campaign site was selected because of the unique terrain feature of two nearly parallel ridges with a valley-to-ridge-top height difference of about 200 m and a ridge-to-ridge distance of 1.4 km. Six scanning Doppler lidars probed the flow field in several vertical planes orthogonal to the ridges using range–height indicator scans. With this lidar setup, we achieved vertical scans of the recirculation zone at three positions along two parallel ridges. We construct a method to identify flow recirculation zones in the scans, as well as define characteristics of these zones. According to our data analysis, flow recirculation, with reverse flow wind speeds greater than 0.5 m s−1, occurs over 50 % of the time when the wind direction is perpendicular to the direction of the ridges. Atmospheric conditions, such as atmospheric stability and wind speed, affect the occurrence of flow recirculation. Flow recirculation occurs more frequently during periods with wind speeds above 8 m s−1. Recirculation within the valley affects the mean wind and turbulence fields at turbine heights on the downwind ridge in magnitudes significant for wind resource assessment.

Wind power installations have been increasing in recent years. Because wind turbines can influence local wind speeds, temperatures, and surface fluxes, weather forecasting models should consider their effects. Wind farm parameterizations do currently exist for numerical weather prediction models. They generally consider two turbine impacts: elevated drag in the region of the wind turbine rotor disk and increased turbulent kinetic energy production. The wind farm parameterization available in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model calculates this drag and TKE as a function of hub-height wind speed. However, recent work has suggested that integrating momentum over the entire rotor disk [via a rotor-equivalent wind speed (REWS)] is more appropriate, especially for cases with high wind shear. In this study, we implement the REWS in the WRF wind farm parameterization and evaluate its impacts in an idealized environment, with varying amounts of wind speed shear and wind directional veer. Specifically, we evaluate three separate cases: neutral stability with low wind shear, high stability with high wind shear, and high stability with nonlinear wind shear. For most situations, use of the REWS with the wind farm parameterization has marginal impacts on model forecasts. However, for scenarios with highly nonlinear wind shear, the REWS can significantly affect results.

Wind plant blockage reduces wind velocity upstream of wind plants, reducing the power generated by turbines adjacent to the inflow, and potentially throughout the plant as well. The nature of the mechanism that amplifies blockage as well as the velocity reductions in both the induction zone and potentially deeper into the array are not well understood. Field observations can provide valuable insight into the characteristics of the induction zone and the mechanisms that amplify it. However, the relatively small velocity reductions that have been measured experimentally pose a challenge in quantifying blockage, especially in onshore environments with flow heterogeneities that may be of the same scale as the blockage effect itself. We simulate the flow around the King Plains wind plant in the relatively simple terrain of Oklahoma, the location of the American WAKE experimeNt, to evaluate wind plant blockage in this environment. Using numerical simulations, we find the largest velocity deceleration (0.64 m s−1; 8%) immediately upstream of the wind plant, and 1% velocity deficits 24 rotor diameters upstream of the first turbine row. We also use virtual measurements upstream of the wind plant to analyze the uncertainties and difficulties in measuring blockage using a scanning lidar on shore. Based on our virtual lidar study, the induction zone of land-based wind plants can be incorrectly estimated using observations if the effects of nonuniform terrain on the flow are not carefully considered. Changes in terrain elevation produce local variations in wind speed (as measured by a scanning lidar) that exceed in magnitude the deceleration within the induction zone. We refer to these local changes in wind speed as terrain effects. A methodology to differentiate between terrain effects and blockage in experimental settings is proposed and evaluated herein, highlighting the difficulties and uncertainties associated with measurement and simulation of blockage in even relatively simple onshore environments.

Hub-height turbulence is essential for a variety of wind energy applications, ranging from wind plant siting to wind turbine control strategies. Because deploying hub-height meteorological towers can be a challenge, alternative ways to estimate hub-height turbulence are desired. In this paper, we assess to what degree hub-height turbulence can be estimated via other hub-height variables or ground-level atmospheric measurements in complex terrain, using observations from three meteorological towers at the Perdigão and WFIP2 field campaigns. We find a large variability across the three considered towers when trying to model hub-height turbulence intensity (TI) and turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) from hub-height or near-surface measurements of either wind speed, TI, or TKE. Moreover, we find that based on the characteristics of the specific site, atmospheric stability and upwind fetch either determine a significant variability in hub-height turbulence or are not a main driver of the variability in hub-height TI and TKE. Our results highlight how hub-height turbulence is simultaneously sensitive to numerous different factors, so that no simple and universal relationship can be determined to vertically extrapolate turbulence from near-surface measurements, or model it from other hub-height variables when considering univariate relationships. We suggest that a multivariate approach should instead be considered, possibly leveraging the capabilities of machine learning nonlinear algorithms.

Wind plant blockage reduces the wind velocity upstream undermining turbine performance for the first row of the plant. We assess how atmospheric stability modifies the induction zone of a wind plant in flat terrain. We also explore different approaches to quantifying the magnitude and extent of the induction zone from field-like observations. To investigate the influence from atmospheric stability, we compare simulations of two stable boundary layers using the Weather Research and Forecasting model in large-eddy simulation mode, representing wind turbines using the generalized actuator disk approach. We find a faster cooling rate at the surface, which produces a stronger stably stratified boundary layer, amplifies the induction zone of both an isolated turbine and of a large wind plant. A statistical analysis on the hub-height wind speed field shows wind slowdowns only extend far upstream (up to 15D) of a wind plant in strong stable boundary layers. To evaluate different ways of measuring wind plant blockage from field-like observations, we consider various ways of estimating the freestream velocity upstream of the plant. Sampling a large area upstream is the most accurate approach to estimating the freestream conditions, and thus of measuring the blockage effect. Also, the choice of sampling method may induce errors of the same order as the velocity deficit in the induction zone.

Offshore wind resource characterization in the United States relies heavily on simulated winds from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, given the lack of hub-height observations offshore. One such NWP data set used extensively by U.S. stakeholders is the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, a 7-year time-series data set produced in 2013 by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. In this study, we present an update to that data set for offshore California that leverages recent advancements in NWP modeling capabilities and extends the period of record to a full 20 years. The data set predicts a significantly larger wind resource (0.25–1.75 m s−1 stronger), including in three Call Areas that the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is considering for commercial activity. We conduct a set of yearlong simulations to study factors that contribute to this increase in the modeled wind resource. The largest impact arises from a change in the planetary boundary layer parameterization from the Yonsei University scheme to the Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino scheme and their diverging wind profiles under stable stratification. Additionally, we conduct a refined wind resource assessment at the three Call Areas, characterizing distributions of wind speed, shear, veer, stability, frequency of wind droughts, and power production. We find that, depending on the attribute, the new data set can show substantial disagreement with the WIND Toolkit, thereby driving important changes in predicted power.

The International Society for Atmospheric Research using Remotely-piloted Aircraft (ISARRA) hosted a flight week in July 2018 to demonstrate Unmanned Aircraft Systems’ (UAS) capabilities in sampling the atmospheric boundary layer. This week-long experiment was called the Lower Atmospheric Profiling Studies at Elevation – a Remotely-piloted Aircraft Team Experiment (LAPSE-RATE) field campaign. Numerous remotely piloted aircrafts and ground-based instruments were deployed with the objective of capturing meso- and microscale phenomena in the atmospheric boundary layer. The University of Oklahoma deployed one Halo Streamline lidar and the University of Colorado Boulder deployed two Windcube lidars. In this paper, we use data collected from these Doppler lidars to estimate turbulence dissipation rate throughout the campaign. We observe large temporal variability of turbulence dissipation close to the surface with the Windcube lidars that is not detected by the Halo Streamline. However, the Halo lidar enables estimating dissipation rate within the whole boundary layer, where a diurnal variability emerges. We also find a higher correspondence in turbulence dissipation between the Windcube lidars, which are not co-located, compared to the Halo and Windcube lidar that are co-located, suggesting a significant influence of measurement volume on the retrieved values of dissipation rate. This dataset have been submitted to Zenodo (Sanchez Gomez and Lundquist, 2020) for free and open access (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4399967).

The challenges emerging from the workshop highlight the need for increased interaction. Weather and climate scientists must first begin to understand how climate information is used by energy researchers in practice, ensuring that the data provided can interface with the tools and techniques being used. This understanding requires atmospheric scientists to investigate how the processes involved in energy modeling relate to the impacts of weather and climate, rather than focusing on the climate itself. In parallel, energy scientists should seek to develop a better appreciation of climate uncertainty, addressing its importance for oth historical and future simulations. A key step is therefore to develop the tools and understanding required to quantify the effects of climate uncertainty in highly complex energy systems, and to understand the importance of climate relative to the contributions from other sources of uncertainty.

In July 2018, the International Society for Atmospheric Research using Remotely-piloted Aircraft (ISARRA) hosted a flight week to showcase the role remotely-piloted aircraft systems (RPAS) can have in filling the atmospheric data gap.This campaign was dubbed Lower Atmospheric Process Studies at Elevation – A Remotely-piloted Aircraft Team Experiment(LAPSE-RATE). In support of this campaign, ground-based remote and in-situ systems were also deployed for the campaign.The University of Oklahoma deployed the Collaborative Lower Atmospheric Mobile Profiling System (CLAMPS), the University of Colorado deployed two Doppler wind lidars, and the National Severe Storms Lab deployed a Mobile Mesonet with the ability to launch radiosondes. This paper focuses on the data products from these instruments that result in pro-files of the atmospheric state. The data are publicly available in the Zenodo LAPSE-RATE community portal (https://zenodo.org/communities/lapse-rate/). The profile data discussed are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3780623 (Bell and Klein, 2020), https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3780593 (Bell et al., 2020b), https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3727224 (Bell et al., 2020a), https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3738175 (Waugh, 2020b), https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3720444 (Waugh, 2020a),and https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3698228 (Lundquist et al., 2020).

In recent years, new measurement systems have been deployed to monitor and quantify methane emissions from the natural gas sector. Large-eddy simulation (LES) has complemented measurement campaigns by serving as a controlled environment in which to study plume dynamics and sampling strategies. However, with few comparisons to controlled-release experiments, the accuracy of LES for modeling natural gas emissions is poorly characterized. In this paper, we evaluate LES from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model against Project Prairie Grass campaign measurements and surface layer similarity theory. Using WRF-LES, we simulate continuous emissions from 30 near-surface trace gas sources in two stability regimes: strong and weak convection. We examine the impact of grid resolutions ranging from 6.25 m to 52 m in the horizontal dimension on model results. We evaluate performance in a statistical framework, calculating fractional bias and conducting Welch’s t-tests. WRF-LES accurately simulates observed surface concentrations at 100 m and beyond under strong convection; simulated concentrations pass t-tests in this region irrespective of grid resolution. However, in weakly convective conditions with strong winds, WRF-LES substantially overpredicts concentrations – the magnitude of fractional bias often exceeds 30%, and all but one C-test fails. The good performance of WRF-LES under strong convection correlates with agreement with local free convection theory and a minimal amount of parameterized turbulent kinetic energy. The poor performance under weak convection corresponds to misalignment with Monin-Obukhov similarity theory and a significant amount of parameterized turbulent kinetic energy.

Unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) offer innovative capabilities for providing new perspectives on the atmosphere, and therefore atmospheric scientists are rapidly expanding their use, particularly for studying the planetary boundary layer. In support of this expansion, from 14–20 July 2018 the International Society for Atmospheric Research using Remotely-piloted Aircraft (ISARRA) hosted a community flight week, dubbed the Lower Atmospheric Profiling Studies at Elevation – a Remotely-piloted Aircraft Team Experiment (LAPSE-RATE, de Boer et al., 2020a). This field campaign spanned a one-week deployment to Colorado’s San Luis Valley, involving over 100 students, scientists, engineers, pilots, and outreach coordinators. These groups conducted intensive field operations using unmanned aircraft and ground-based assets to develop comprehensive datasets spanning a variety of scientific objectives, including a total of nearly 1300 research flights totaling over 250 flight hours. This article introduces this campaign and lays the groundwork for a special issue on the LAPSE-RATE project. The remainder of the special issue provides detailed overviews of the datasets collected and the platforms used to collect them. All of the datasets covered by this special issue have been uploaded to a LAPSE-RATE community set up at the Zenodo data archive (https://zenodo.org/communities/lapse-rate/).

Large mountains can modify the weather downstream of the terrain. In particular, when stably stratified air ascends a mountain barrier, buoyancy perturbations develop. These perturbations can trigger mountain waves downstream of the mountains that can reach deep into the atmospheric boundary layer where wind turbines operate. Several such cases of mountain waves occurred during the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) in the Columbia Basin in the lee of the Cascade Mountains bounding the states of Washington and Oregon in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Signals from the mountain waves appear in boundary-layer sodar and lidar observations as well as in nacelle wind speeds and power observations from wind plants. Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations also produce mountain waves. Even small oscillations in wind speed caused by mountain waves can induce oscillations between full rated power of a wind farm and half of the power output, depending on the position of the mountain wave's crests and troughs. This paper aims at understanding how mountain waves form in the complex terrain of the Columbia Basin, subsequently affect wind energy production, and impact aspects of operational forecasting, wind power plant layout, and integration of power into the electrical grid.

On June 18, 2019, National Weather Service (NWS) radar reflectivity data indicated the presence of thunderstorm-generated outflow propagating east-southeast near Lubbock, Texas. A section of the outflow boundary encountered a wind farm, and then experienced a notable reduction in propagating speed, suggesting that interactions with the wind farm impacted the outflow boundary progression. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting model and its Wind Farm Parameterization to address the extent to which wind farms can modify thunderstorm outflow boundaries. We conduct two simulations of the June 2019 outflow event, one containing the wind farm and one without. We specifically investigate the outflow propagation speed of the section of the boundary that encounters the wind farm and the associated impacts to near-surface wind speed, moisture, temperature, and changes to precipitation features as the storm and associated outflow pass over the wind farm domain. The NWS radar and nearby West Texas Mesonet surface stations provide observations for validation of the simulations. The presence of the wind farm in the simulation clearly slows the progress of the outflow boundary by over 20 km hr−1 similar to what was observed. Simulated perturbations of surface wind speed, temperature, and moisture associated with outflow passage were delayed by up to 6 minutes when the wind farm was present in the simulation compared to the simulation without the wind farm. However, impacts to precipitation were localized and transient, with no change to total accumulation across the domain.

Current turbulence parameterizations in numerical weather prediction models at the mesoscale assume a local equilibrium between production and dissipation of turbulence. As this assumption does not hold at fine horizontal resolutions, improved ways to represent turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) dissipation rate (ε) are needed. Here, we use a 6-week data set of turbulence measurements from 184 sonic anemometers in complex terrain at the Perdigão field campaign to suggest improved representations of dissipation rate. First, we demonstrate that a widely used Mellor, Yamada, Nakanishi, and Niino (MYNN) parameterization of TKE dissipation rate leads to a large inaccuracy and bias in the representation of ε. Next, we assess the potential of machine-learning techniques to predict TKE dissipation rate from a set of atmospheric and terrain-related features. We train and test several machine-learning algorithms using the data at Perdigão, and we find that multivariate polynomial regressions and random forests can eliminate the bias MYNN currently shows in representing ε, while also reducing the average error by up to 30 %. Of all the variables included in the algorithms, TKE is the variable responsible for most of the variability of ε, and a strong positive correlation exists between the two. These results suggest further consideration of machine-learning techniques to enhance parameterizations of turbulence in numerical weather prediction models.

Wind turbines operating in a stably stratified atmospheric boundary layer often interact with a veering wind, which is characterized by a clockwise wind direction change with height in the Northern Hemisphere. The rotational direction of the wind turbine rotor has a significant impact on the flow field in the wake in case of a veering wind, whereas it is of minor importance if the wind direction is the same over the whole rotor.The impact of the rotational direction in a stably stratified atmospheric boundary layer results in contrasting rotational directions of the near and far wake in case of a common clockwise rotating rotor, whereas in case of a counterclockwise rotating rotor the rotational direction of the wake persists in the whole wake. The change of the rotational direction of the wake at a downstream location, which is related to the transition from the near wake to the far wake region, results in a larger streamwise wake elongation and a narrower spanwise wake width. In the lower and upper part, the wake deflection angle is also influenced by the rotational direction of the blades, resulting in a smaller wake deflection angle in case of a common clockwise rotating rotor in the Northern Hemisphere. In the Southern Hemisphere, the situation is reversed, an effect related to the Coriolis force impact on the Ekman spiral.As the rotational direction impacts the inflow velocity, it effects the produced power of a downwind turbine and likewise the loads acting on a downwind turbine. For a hypothetical downwind turbine with a staggered spacing of 7 D, the power output difference would be up to 23% in idealized simulations, whereas the power output difference for a counterclockwise rotating rotor instead of a clockwise one also depends on atmospheric conditions like the strength of stratification, the strength of the veering wind, the rotor fraction impacted by a veering wind, and wind speed.

The American WAKE experimeNt (AWAKEN) is a multi-institutional collaborative field campaign, starting in March 2022, that will gather an unprecedented data set including both atmospheric observations and wind plant operational data. This comprehensive data set will be used to characterize the wind plant performance and turbine loading in different operational and atmospheric conditions and validate the use of different wind plant control strategies and simulation frameworks. An extensive field campaign like AWAKEN requires proper coordination and long-term planning to be successful. In this paper, we review the major activities planned during AWAKEN to provide information for current and future project partners. Specifically, we provide information about the project sites, their planned instruments, and how these will relate to the scientific objectives of the overall AWAKEN project.

Hub-height turbulence intensity is essential for a variety of wind energy applications. However, simulating it is a challenging task. Simple analytical models have been proposed in the literature, but they all come with significant limitations. Even state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting model, currently struggle to predict hub-height turbulence intensity. Here, we propose a machine-learning-based approach to predict hub-height turbulence intensity from other hub-height and ground-level atmospheric measurements, using observations from the Perdigão field campaign and the Southern Great Plains atmospheric observatory. We consider a random forest regression model, which we validate first at the site used for training and then under a more robust round-robin approach, and compare its performance to a multivariate linear regression. The random forest successfully outperforms the linear regression in modeling hub-height turbulence intensity, with a normalized root-mean-square error as low as 0.014 when using 30-minute average data. In order to achieve such low root-mean-square error values, the knowledge of hub-height turbulence kinetic energy (which can instead be modeled in the Weather Research and Forecasting model) is needed. Interestingly, we find that the performance of the random forest generalizes well when considering a round-robin validation (i.e., when the algorithm is trained at one site such as Perdigão or Southern Great Plains) and then applied to model hub-height turbulence intensity at the other location.

Wind energy accounted for 5.6 % of all electricity generation in the United States in 2016. Much of this development has occurred in rural locations, where open spaces favorable for harnessing wind also serve general aviation airports. As such, nearly 40 % of all United States wind turbines exist within 10 km of a small airport. Wind turbines generate electricity by extracting momentum from the atmosphere, creating downwind wakes characterized by wind-speed deficits and increased turbulence. Recently, the concern that turbine wakes pose hazards for small aircraft has been used to limit wind-farm development. Herein, we assess roll hazards to small aircraft using large-eddy simulations (LES) of a utility-scale turbine wake. Wind-generated lift forces and subsequent rolling moments are calculated for hypothetical aircraft transecting the wake in various orientations. Stably and neutrally stratified cases are explored, with the stable case presenting a possible worst-case scenario due to longer-persisting wakes permitted by lower ambient turbulence. In both cases, only 0.001 % of rolling moments experienced by hypothetical aircraft during down-wake and cross-wake transects lead to an increased risk of rolling.

Wind power forecasting is gaining international significance as more regions promote policies to increase the use of renewable energy. Wind ramps, large variations in wind power production during a period of minutes to hours, challenge utilities and electrical balancing authorities. A sudden decrease in wind energy production must be balanced by other power generators to meet energy demands, while a sharp increase in unexpected production results in excess power that may not be used in the power grid, leading to a loss of potential profits. In this study, we compare different methods to generate probabilistic ramp forecasts from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) numerical weather prediction model with up to twelve hours of lead time at two tall-tower locations in the United States. We validate model performance using 21 months of 80-m wind speed observations from towers in Boulder, Colorado and near the Columbia River Gorge in eastern Oregon. We employ four statistical post-processing methods, three of which are not currently used in the literature for wind forecasting. These procedures correct biases in the model and generate short-term wind speed scenarios which are then converted to power scenarios. This probabilistic enhancement of HRRR point forecasts provides valuable uncertainty information of ramp events and improves the skill of predicting ramp events over the raw forecasts. We compute Brier skill scores for each method at predicting up- and down-ramps to determine which method provides the best prediction. We find that the Standard Schaake Shuffle method yields the highest skill at predicting ramp events for these data sets, especially for up-ramp events at the Oregon site. Increased skill for ramp prediction is limited at the Boulder, CO site using any of the multivariate methods, because of the poor initial forecasts in this area of complex terrain. These statistical methods can be implemented by wind farm operators to generate a range of possible wind speed and power scenarios to aid and optimize decisions before ramp events occur.

A better understanding and prediction of turbulence dissipation rate ε in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is important for many applications. Herein, sonic anemometer data from the Experimental Planetary boundary layer Instrumentation Assessment (XPIA) field campaign (March–May 2015) are used to derive energy dissipation rate (EDR; =) within the first 300 m above the ground employing second-order structure functions. Turbulence dissipation rate is found to be strongly driven by the diurnal evolution of the ABL, presenting a distinct statistical behavior between daytime and nighttime conditions that follows log–Weibull and lognormal distributions, respectively. In addition, the vertical structure of EDR is characterized by a decrease with height above the surface, with the largest gradients occurring within the surface layer (z < 50 m). Convection-permitting mesoscale simulations were carried out with all of the 1.5-order turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) closure planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes available in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Overall, the three PBL schemes capture the observed diurnal evolution of EDR as well as the statistical behavior and vertical structure. However, the Mellor–Yamada-type schemes underestimate the large EDR levels during the bulk of daytime conditions, with the quasi-normal scale elimination (QNSE) scheme providing the best agreement with observations. During stably stratified nighttime conditions, Mellor–Yamada–Janjić (MYJ) and QNSE tend to exhibit an artificial “clipping” to their background TKE levels. A reduction in the model constant in the dissipation term for the Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino (MYNN) scheme did not have a noticeable impact on EDR estimates. In contrast, application of a postprocessing statistical remapping technique reduced the systematic negative bias in the MYNN results by 75%.

The use of wind energy resource is an integral part of many nations’ strategies towards realizing the carbon emissions reduction targets set forth in the Paris Agreement, and global installed wind power cumulative capacity has grown on average by 22% per year since 2006. However, assessments of wind energy resource are usually based on today’s climate, rather than taking into account that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions continue to modify the global atmospheric circulation. Here, we apply an industry wind turbine power curve to simulations of high and low future emissions scenarios in an ensemble of ten fully coupled global climate models to investigate large-scale changes in wind power across the globe. Our calculations reveal decreases in wind power across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes and increases across the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, with substantial regional variations. The changes across the northern mid-latitudes are robust responses over time in both emissions scenarios, whereas the Southern Hemisphere changes appear critically sensitive to each individual emissions scenario. In addition, we find that established features of climate change can explain these patterns: polar amplification is implicated in the northern mid-latitude decrease in wind power, and enhanced land–sea thermal gradients account for the tropical and southern subtropical increases. Wind power for energy generation is projected to decrease in northern mid-latitudes and increase in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, suggests an analysis of climate model simulations utilizing an industry wind turbine power curve.