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In our recent paper on the clinical pharmacology of tafenoquine (Watson et al., 2022), we used all available individual patient pharmacometric data from the tafenoquine pre-registration clinical efficacy trials to characterise the determinants of anti-relapse efficacy in tropical vivax malaria. We concluded that the currently recommended dose of tafenoquine (300 mg in adults, average dose of 5 mg/kg) is insufficient for cure in all adults, and a 50% increase to 450 mg (7.5 mg/kg) would halve the risk of vivax recurrence by four months. We recommended that clinical trials of higher doses should be carried out to assess their safety and tolerability. Sharma and colleagues at the pharmaceutical company GSK defend the currently recommended adult dose of 300 mg as the optimum balance between radical curative efficacy and haemolytic toxicity (Sharma et al., 2024). We contend that the relative haemolytic risks of the 300 mg and 450 mg doses have not been sufficiently well characterised to justify this opinion. In contrast, we provided evidence that the currently recommended 300 mg dose results in sub-maximal efficacy, and that prospective clinical trials of higher doses are warranted to assess their risks and benefits.

BackgroundIn low- and middle-income countries twin births have a high risk of complications partly due to barriers to accessing hospital care. This study compares pregnancy outcomes, maternal and neonatal morbidity and mortality of twin to singleton pregnancy in refugee and migrant clinics on the Thai Myanmar border.MethodsA retrospective review of medical records of all singleton and twin pregnancies delivered or followed at antenatal clinics of the Shoklo Malaria Research Unit from 1986 to 2020, with a known outcome and estimated gestational age. Logistic regression was done to compare the odds of maternal and neonatal outcomes between twin and singleton pregnancies.ResultsBetween 1986 and 2020 this unstable and migratory population had a recorded outcome of pregnancy of 28 weeks or more for 597 twin births and 59,005 singleton births. Twinning rate was low and stable (ConclusionIn this fragile setting where access to hospital care is difficult, three in four twins birthed vaginally. Twin pregnancies have a higher maternal morbidity and perinatal mortality, especially the second twin, compared to singleton pregnancies.

BackgroundMalaria transmission modelling has demonstrated the potential impact of semiquantitative glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) testing and treatment with single-dose tafenoquine for Plasmodium vivax radical cure but has not investigated the associated costs. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of P. vivax treatment with tafenoquine after G6PD testing using a transmission model.Methods and findingsWe explored the cost-effectiveness of using tafenoquine after G6PD screening as compared to usual practice (7-day low-dose primaquine (0.5 mg/kg/day) without G6PD screening) in Brazil using a 10-year time horizon with 5% discounting considering 4 scenarios: (1) tafenoquine for adults only assuming 66.7% primaquine treatment adherence; (2) tafenoquine for adults and children aged >2 years assuming 66.7% primaquine adherence; (3) tafenoquine for adults only assuming 90% primaquine adherence; and (4) tafenoquine for adults only assuming 30% primaquine adherence. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated by dividing the incremental costs by the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. These were compared to a willingness to pay (WTP) threshold of US$7,800 for Brazil, and one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. All 4 scenarios were cost-effective in the base case analysis using this WTP threshold with ICERs ranging from US$154 to US$1,836. One-way sensitivity analyses showed that the results were most sensitive to severity and mortality due to vivax malaria, the lifetime and number of semiquantitative G6PD analysers needed, cost per malaria episode and per G6PD test strips, and life expectancy. All scenarios had a 100% likelihood of being cost-effective at the WTP threshold. The main limitations of this study are due to parameter uncertainty around our cost estimates for low transmission settings, the costs of G6PD screening, and the severity of vivax malaria.ConclusionsIn our modelling study that incorporated impact on transmission, tafenoquine prescribed after a semiquantitative G6PD testing was highly likely to be cost-effective in Brazil. These results demonstrate the potential health and economic importance of ensuring safe and effective radical cure.

Background The optimal dosing of primaquine to prevent relapsing Plasmodium vivax malaria in South Asia remains unclear. We investigated the efficacy and safety of different primaquine regimens to prevent P. vivax relapse.Methods A systematic review identified P. vivax efficacy studies from South Asia published between 1 January 2000 and 23 August 2021. In a one-stage meta-analysis of available individual patient data, the cumulative risks of P. vivax recurrence at day 42 and 180 were assessed by primaquine total mg/kg dose and duration. The risk of recurrence by day 180 was also determined in a two-stage meta-analysis. Patients with a >25% drop in haemoglobin to 50 g/L between days 1 and 14 were categorised by daily mg/kg primaquine dose.Results In 791 patients from 7 studies in the one-stage meta-analysis, the day 180 cumulative risk of recurrence was 61.1% (95% CI 42.2% to 80.4%; 201 patients; 25 recurrences) after treatment without primaquine, 28.8% (95% CI 8.2% to 74.1%; 398 patients; 4 recurrences) following low total (2 to 25% drop in haemoglobin to

BackgroundThe World Health Organization recommends that primaquine should be given once weekly for 8-weeks to patients with Plasmodium vivax malaria and glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency, but data on its antirelapse efficacy and safety are limited.MethodsWithin the context of a multicentre, randomised clinical trial of two primaquine regimens in P. vivax malaria, patients with G6PD deficiency were excluded and enrolled into a separate 12-month observational study. They were treated with a weekly dose of 0.75 mg/kg primaquine for 8 weeks (PQ8W) plus dihydroartemisinin piperaquine (Indonesia) or chloroquine (Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Vietnam). G6PD status was diagnosed using the fluorescent spot test and confirmed by genotyping for locally prevalent G6PD variants. The risk of P. vivax recurrence following PQ8W and the consequent haematological recovery were characterized in all patients and in patients with genotypically confirmed G6PD variants, and compared with the patients enrolled in the main randomised control trial.ResultsBetween July 2014 and November 2017, 42 male and 8 female patients were enrolled in Afghanistan (6), Ethiopia (5), Indonesia (19), and Vietnam (20). G6PD deficiency was confirmed by genotyping in 31 patients: Viangchan (14), Mediterranean (4), 357A-G (3), Canton (2), Kaiping (2), and one each for A-, Chatham, Gaohe, Ludhiana, Orissa, and Vanua Lava. Two patients had recurrent P. vivax parasitaemia (days 68 and 207). The overall 12-month cumulative risk of recurrent P. vivax malaria was 5.1% (95% CI: 1.3-18.9) and the incidence rate of recurrence was 46.8 per 1000 person-years (95% CI: 11.7-187.1). The risk of P. vivax recurrence was lower in G6PD deficient patients treated with PQ8W compared to G6PD normal patients in all treatment arms of the randomised controlled trial. Two of the 26 confirmed hemizygous males had a significant fall in haemoglobin (>5g/dl) after the first dose but were able to complete their 8 week regimen.ConclusionsPQ8W was highly effective in preventing P. vivax recurrences. Whilst PQ8W was well tolerated in most patients across a range of different G6PD variants, significant falls in haemoglobin may occur after the first dose and require clinical monitoring.Trial registrationThis trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01814683).

Tafenoquine is a newly licensed antimalarial drug for the radical cure of Plasmodium vivax malaria. The mechanism of action and optimal dosing are uncertain. We pooled individual data from 1102 patients and 72 healthy volunteers studied in the pre-registration trials. We show that tafenoquine dose is the primary determinant of efficacy. Under an Emax model, we estimate the currently recommended 300 mg dose in a 60 kg adult (5 mg/kg) results in 70% of the maximal obtainable hypnozoiticidal effect. Increasing the dose to 7.5 mg/kg (i.e. 450 mg) would result in 90% reduction in the risk of P. vivax recurrence. After adjustment for dose, the tafenoquine terminal elimination half-life, and day 7 methaemoglobin concentration, but not the parent compound exposure, were also associated with recurrence. These results suggest that the production of oxidative metabolites is central to tafenoquine’s hypnozoiticidal efficacy. Clinical trials of higher tafenoquine doses are needed to characterise their efficacy, safety and tolerability.

Primaquine and tafenoquine are the only licensed drugs with activity against Plasmodium vivax hypnozoites but cause haemolysis in patients with glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency. Malaria also causes haemolysis, leading to the replacement of older erythrocytes with low G6PD activity by reticulocytes and young erythrocytes with higher activity. Aim of this study was to assess the impact of acute malaria on G6PD activity. Selected patients with uncomplicated malaria were recruited in Bangladesh (n = 87), Indonesia (n = 75), and Ethiopia (n = 173); G6PD activity was measured at the initial presentation with malaria and a median of 176 days later (range 140 to 998) in the absence of malaria. Among selected participants (deficient participants preferentially enrolled in Bangladesh but not at other sites) G6PD activity fell between malaria and follow up by 79.1% (95%CI: 40.4 to 117.8) in 6 participants classified as deficient (

Background: Anaemia affects more than half of Africa’s pregnancies. Standard care, with oral iron tablets, often fails to achieve results, with compliance and gastrointestinal side-effects being a significant issue. In recent years, intravenous iron formulations have become safe, effective, and quick to administer, allowing the complete iron requirements of pregnancy to be provided in one 15-minute infusion. The Randomized controlled trial of the Effect of intraVenous iron on Anaemia in Malawian Pregnant women (REVAMP) will evaluate whether a modern intravenous iron formulation, ferric carboxymaltose (FCM), given once during the second trimester is effective and safe in improving maternal and neonatal outcomes for treatment of moderate to severe anaemia in sub-Saharan Africa. The objective was to publish the detailed statistical analysis plan for the REVAMP trial prior to unblinding the allocated treatments and performing the analysis. Methods: REVAMP is a multicentre, two-arm, open-label, parallel-group randomized control trial (RCT) in 862 pregnant women in their second trimester. The trial statistician developed the statistical analysis plan in consultation with the trial management team based on the protocol, data collection forms, and study outcomes available in the blinded study database. Results: The detailed statistical analysis plan will support the statistical analyses and reporting of the REVAMP trial after unblinding the treatment allocations. Conclusions: A statistical analysis plan allows for transparency as well as reproducibility of reporting and statistical analyses.

High-malaria burden countries in sub-Saharan Africa are shifting from malaria control towards elimination. Hence, there is need to gain a contemporary understanding of how indoor residual spraying (IRS) with non-pyrethroid insecticides when combined with long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) impregnated with pyrethroid insecticides, contribute to the efforts of National Malaria Control Programmes to interrupt transmission and reduce the reservoir of Plasmodium falciparum infections across all ages. Using an interrupted time-series study design, four age-stratified malariometric surveys, each of ~2,000 participants, were undertaken pre- and post-IRS in Bongo District, Ghana. Following the application of three-rounds of IRS, P. falciparum transmission intensity declined, as measured by a >90% reduction in the monthly entomological inoculation rate. This decline was accompanied by reductions in parasitological parameters, with participants of all ages being significantly less likely to harbor P. falciparum infections at the end of the wet season post-IRS (aOR = 0.22 [95% CI: 0.19-0.26], p-value < 0.001). In addition, multiplicity of infection (MOI var ) was measured using a parasite fingerprinting tool, designed to capture within-host genome diversity. At the end of the wet season post-IRS, the prevalence of multi-genome infections declined from 75.6% to 54.1%. This study demonstrates that in areas characterized by high seasonal malaria transmission, IRS in combination with LLINs can significantly reduce the reservoir of P. falciparum infection. Nonetheless despite this success, 41.6% of the population, especially older children and adolescents, still harboured multi-genome infections. Given the persistence of this diverse reservoir across all ages, these data highlight the importance of sustaining vector control in combination with targeted chemotherapy to move high-transmission settings towards pre-elimination. This study also points to the benefits of molecular surveillance to ensure that incremental achievements are not lost and that the goals advocated for in the WHO's High Burden to High Impact strategy are realized.

Background: Anaemia affects more than half of Africa’s pregnancies. Standard care, with oral iron tablets, often fails to achieve results, with compliance and gastrointestinal side-effects being a significant issue. In recent years, intravenous iron formulations have become safe, effective, and quick to administer, allowing the complete iron requirements of pregnancy to be provided in one 15-minute infusion. The Randomized controlled trial of the Effect of intraVenous iron on Anaemia in Malawian Pregnant women (REVAMP) will evaluate whether a modern intravenous iron formulation, ferric carboxymaltose (FCM), given once during the second trimester is effective and safe in improving maternal and neonatal outcomes for treatment of moderate to severe anaemia in sub-Saharan Africa. The objective was to publish the detailed statistical analysis plan for the REVAMP trial prior to unblinding the allocated treatments and performing the analysis. Methods: REVAMP is a multicentre, two-arm, open-label, parallel-group randomized control trial (RCT) in 862 pregnant women in their second trimester. The trial statistician developed the statistical analysis plan in consultation with the trial management team based on the protocol, data collection forms, and study outcomes available in the blinded study database. Results: The detailed statistical analysis plan will support the statistical analyses and reporting of the REVAMP trial after unblinding the treatment allocations. Conclusions: A statistical analysis plan allows for transparency as well as reproducibility of reporting and statistical analyses.

Background: Entomological surveillance for malaria is inherently resource-intensive and produces crude population-level measures of vector exposure which are insensitive in low-transmission settings. Antibodies against Anopheles salivary proteins measured at the individual level may serve as proxy biomarkers for vector exposure and malaria transmission, but their relationship is yet to be quantified. Methods: A systematic review of studies measuring antibodies against Anopheles salivary antigens (PROSPERO: CRD42020185449). Multilevel modelling (to account for multiple study-specific observations [level 1], nested within study [level 2], and study nested within country [level 3]) estimated associations between seroprevalence with Anopheles human biting rate (HBR) and malaria transmission measures. Results: From 3981 studies identified in literature searches, 42 studies across 16 countries were included contributing 393 study-specific observations of anti-Anopheles salivary antibodies determined in 42,764 samples. A positive association between HBR (log transformed) and seroprevalence was found; overall a twofold (100% relative) increase in HBR was associated with a 23% increase in odds of seropositivity (OR: 1.23, 95% CI: 1.10–1.37; p

BackgroundIn 2017, an estimated 14 million cases of Plasmodium vivax malaria were reported from Asia, Central and South America, and the Horn of Africa. The clinical burden of vivax malaria is largely driven by its ability to form dormant liver stages (hypnozoites) that can reactivate to cause recurrent episodes of malaria. Elimination of both the blood and liver stages of the parasites ("radical cure") is required to achieve a sustained clinical response and prevent ongoing transmission of the parasite. Novel treatment options and point-of-care diagnostics are now available to ensure that radical cure can be administered safely and effectively. We quantified the global economic cost of vivax malaria and estimated the potential cost benefit of a policy of radical cure after testing patients for glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency.Methods and findingsEstimates of the healthcare provider and household costs due to vivax malaria were collated and combined with national case estimates for 44 endemic countries in 2017. These provider and household costs were compared with those that would be incurred under 2 scenarios for radical cure following G6PD screening: (1) complete adherence following daily supervised primaquine therapy and (2) unsupervised treatment with an assumed 40% effectiveness. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis generated credible intervals (CrIs) for the estimates. Globally, the annual cost of vivax malaria was US$359 million (95% CrI: US$222 to 563 million), attributable to 14.2 million cases of vivax malaria in 2017. From a societal perspective, adopting a policy of G6PD deficiency screening and supervision of primaquine to all eligible patients would prevent 6.1 million cases and reduce the global cost of vivax malaria to US$266 million (95% CrI: US$161 to 415 million), although healthcare provider costs would increase by US$39 million. If perfect adherence could be achieved with a single visit, then the global cost would fall further to US$225 million, equivalent to $135 million in cost savings from the baseline global costs. A policy of unsupervised primaquine reduced the cost to US$342 million (95% CrI: US$209 to 532 million) while preventing 2.1 million cases. Limitations of the study include partial availability of country-level cost data and parameter uncertainty for the proportion of patients prescribed primaquine, patient adherence to a full course of primaquine, and effectiveness of primaquine when unsupervised.ConclusionsOur modelling study highlights a substantial global economic burden of vivax malaria that could be reduced through investment in safe and effective radical cure achieved by routine screening for G6PD deficiency and supervision of treatment. Novel, low-cost interventions for improving adherence to primaquine to ensure effective radical cure and widespread access to screening for G6PD deficiency will be critical to achieving the timely global elimination of P. vivax.

Background: Plasmodium falciparum causes placental malaria, which results in adverse outcomes for mother and child. P. falciparum-infected erythrocytes that express the parasite protein VAR2CSA on their surface can bind to placental chondroitin sulfate A. It has been hypothesized that naturally acquired antibodies towards VAR2CSA protect against placental infection, but it has proven difficult to identify robust antibody correlates of protection from disease. The objective of this study was to develop a prediction model using antibody features that could identify women protected from placental malaria. Methods: We used a systems serology approach with elastic net-regularized logistic regression, partial least squares discriminant analysis, and a case-control study design to identify naturally acquired antibody features mid-pregnancy that were associated with protection from placental malaria at delivery in a cohort of 77 pregnant women from Madang, Papua New Guinea. Results: The machine learning techniques selected 6 out of 169 measured antibody features towards VAR2CSA that could predict (with 86% accuracy) whether a woman would subsequently have active placental malaria infection at delivery. Selected features included previously described associations with inhibition of placental binding and/or opsonic phagocytosis of infected erythrocytes, and network analysis indicated that there are not one but multiple pathways to protection from placental malaria. Conclusions: We have identified candidate antibody features that could accurately identify malaria-infected women as protected from placental infection. It is likely that there are multiple pathways to protection against placental malaria. Funding: This study was supported by the National Health and Medical Research Council (Nos. APP1143946, GNT1145303, APP1092789, APP1140509, and APP1104975).

BackgroundSoil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections are widespread in tropical and subtropical regions. While many STH infections are asymptomatic, vulnerable populations such as pregnant women face repercussions such as aggravation of maternal anaemia. However, data on prevalence and the effect of STH infections in pregnancy are limited. The aim of this analysis was to describe the burden of STH infections within and between populations of pregnant women from a local refugee camp to a mobile migrant population, and to explore possible associations between STH infection and pregnancy outcomes.MethodologyThis is a retrospective review of records from pregnant refugee and migrant women who attended Shoklo Malaria Research Unit antenatal care (ANC) clinics along the Thailand-Myanmar border between July 2013 and December 2017. Inclusion was based on provision of a stool sample during routine antenatal screening. A semi-quantitative formalin concentration method was employed for examination of faecal samples. The associations between STH mono-infections and maternal anaemia and pregnancy outcomes (i.e., miscarriage, stillbirth, preterm birth, and small for gestational age) were estimated using regression analysis.Principal findingsOverall, 12,742 pregnant women were included, of whom 2,702 (21.2%) had a confirmed infection with either Ascaris lumbricoides, hookworm, Trichuris trichiura, or a combination of these. The occurrence of STH infections in the refugee population (30.8%; 1,246/4,041) was higher than in the migrant population (16.7%; 1,456/8,701). A. lumbricoides was the predominant STH species in refugees and hookworm in migrants. A. lumbricoides and hookworm infection were associated with maternal anaemia at the first ANC consultation with adjusted odds ratios of 1.37 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08-1.72) and 1.65 (95% CI 1.19-2.24), respectively. Pregnant women with A. lumbricoides infection were less likely to miscarry when compared to women with negative stool samples (adjusted hazard ratio 0.63, 95% CI 0.48-0.84). STH infections were not significantly associated with stillbirth, preterm birth or being born too small for gestational age. One in five pregnant women in this cohort had STH infection. Association of STH infection with maternal anaemia, in particular in the event of late ANC enrolment, underlines the importance of early detection and treatment of STH infection. A potential protective effect of A. lumbricoides infection on miscarriage needs confirmation in prospective studies.

Introduction Increasing urban populations have led to the growth of informal settlements, with contaminated environments linked to poor human health through a range of interlinked pathways. Here, we describe the design and methods for the Revitalising Informal Settlements and their Environments (RISE) study, a transdisciplinary randomised trial evaluating impacts of an intervention to upgrade urban informal settlements in two Asia-Pacific countries.Methods and analysis RISE is a cluster randomised controlled trial among 12 settlements in Makassar, Indonesia, and 12 in Suva, Fiji. Six settlements in each country have been randomised to receive the intervention at the outset; the remainder will serve as controls and be offered intervention delivery after trial completion. The intervention involves a water-sensitive approach, delivering site-specific, modular, decentralised infrastructure primarily aimed at improving health by decreasing exposure to environmental faecal contamination. Consenting households within each informal settlement site have been enrolled, with longitudinal assessment to involve health and well-being surveys, and human and environmental sampling. Primary outcomes will be evaluated in children under 5 years of age and include prevalence and diversity of gastrointestinal pathogens, abundance and diversity of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) genes in gastrointestinal microorganisms and markers of gastrointestinal inflammation. Diverse secondary outcomes include changes in microbial contamination; abundance and diversity of pathogens and AMR genes in environmental samples; impacts on ecological biodiversity and microclimates; mosquito vector abundance; anthropometric assessments, nutrition markers and systemic inflammation in children; caregiver-reported and self-reported health symptoms and healthcare utilisation; and measures of individual and community psychological, emotional and economic well-being. The study aims to provide proof-of-concept evidence to inform policies on upgrading of informal settlements to improve environments and human health and well-being.Ethics Study protocols have been approved by ethics boards at Monash University, Fiji National University and Hasanuddin University.Trial registration number ACTRN12618000633280; Pre-results.

Four in five neonatal deaths of preterm births occur in low and middle income countries and placental histopathology examination can help clarify the pathogenesis. Infection is known to play a significant role in preterm birth. The aim of this systematic review is to explore the association between placental histopathological abnormality and preterm birth in the presence of confirmed infection. PubMed/Medline, Scopus, Web of Science and Embase were searched using the keywords related to preterm birth, placental histopathology and infection. Titles and abstracts were screened and the full texts of eligible articles were reviewed to extract and summarise data. Of 1529 articles, only 23 studies (13 bacterial, 6 viral and 4 parasitic) were included, and they used 7 different gestational age windows, and 20 different histopathological classification systems, precluding data pooling. Despite this, histopathological chorioamnionitis, and funisitis (when examined) were commonly observed in preterm birth complicated by confirmed bacterial or viral, but not parasitic, infection. The presence of malaria parasites but not pigment in placenta was reported to increase the risk of PTB, but this finding was inconclusive. One in three studies were conducted in low and middle income countries. An array of: definitions of preterm birth subgroups, histological classification systems, histopathologic abnormalities and diagnostic methods to identify infections were reported in this systematic review. Commitment to using standardised terminology and classification of histopathological abnormalities associated with infections is needed to identify causality and potential treatment of preterm birth. Studies on preterm birth needs to occur in high burden countries and control for clinical characteristics (maternal, fetal, labor, and placental) that may have an impact on placental histopathological abnormalities.

BackgroundThere is a high risk of Plasmodium vivax parasitaemia following treatment of falciparum malaria. Our study aimed to quantify this risk and the associated determinants using an individual patient data meta-analysis in order to identify populations in which a policy of universal radical cure, combining artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) with a hypnozoitocidal antimalarial drug, would be beneficial.Methods and findingsA systematic review of Medline, Embase, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews identified efficacy studies of uncomplicated falciparum malaria treated with ACT that were undertaken in regions coendemic for P. vivax between 1 January 1960 and 5 January 2018. Data from eligible studies were pooled using standardised methodology. The risk of P. vivax parasitaemia at days 42 and 63 and associated risk factors were investigated by multivariable Cox regression analyses. Study quality was assessed using a tool developed by the Joanna Briggs Institute. The study was registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO: CRD42018097400). In total, 42 studies enrolling 15,341 patients were included in the analysis, including 30 randomised controlled trials and 12 cohort studies. Overall, 14,146 (92.2%) patients had P. falciparum monoinfection and 1,195 (7.8%) mixed infection with P. falciparum and P. vivax. The median age was 17.0 years (interquartile range [IQR] = 9.0-29.0 years; range = 0-80 years), with 1,584 (10.3%) patients younger than 5 years. 2,711 (17.7%) patients were treated with artemether-lumefantrine (AL, 13 studies), 651 (4.2%) with artesunate-amodiaquine (AA, 6 studies), 7,340 (47.8%) with artesunate-mefloquine (AM, 25 studies), and 4,639 (30.2%) with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP, 16 studies). 14,537 patients (94.8%) were enrolled from the Asia-Pacific region, 684 (4.5%) from the Americas, and 120 (0.8%) from Africa. At day 42, the cumulative risk of vivax parasitaemia following treatment of P. falciparum was 31.1% (95% CI 28.9-33.4) after AL, 14.1% (95% CI 10.8-18.3) after AA, 7.4% (95% CI 6.7-8.1) after AM, and 4.5% (95% CI 3.9-5.3) after DP. By day 63, the risks had risen to 39.9% (95% CI 36.6-43.3), 42.4% (95% CI 34.7-51.2), 22.8% (95% CI 21.2-24.4), and 12.8% (95% CI 11.4-14.5), respectively. In multivariable analyses, the highest rate of P. vivax parasitaemia over 42 days of follow-up was in patients residing in areas of short relapse periodicity (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] = 6.2, 95% CI 2.0-19.5; p = 0.002); patients treated with AL (AHR = 6.2, 95% CI 4.6-8.5; p < 0.001), AA (AHR = 2.3, 95% CI 1.4-3.7; p = 0.001), or AM (AHR = 1.4, 95% CI 1.0-1.9; p = 0.028) compared with DP; and patients who did not clear their initial parasitaemia within 2 days (AHR = 1.8, 95% CI 1.4-2.3; p < 0.001). The analysis was limited by heterogeneity between study populations and lack of data from very low transmission settings. Study quality was high.ConclusionsIn this meta-analysis, we found a high risk of P. vivax parasitaemia after treatment of P. falciparum malaria that varied significantly between studies. These P. vivax infections are likely attributable to relapses that could be prevented with radical cure including a hypnozoitocidal agent; however, the benefits of such a novel strategy will vary considerably between geographical areas.

BackgroundThe World Health Organization has yet to endorse deployment of topical repellents for malaria prevention as part of public health campaigns. We aimed to quantify the effectiveness of repellent distributed by the village health volunteer (VHV) network in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) in reducing malaria in order to advance regional malaria elimination.Methods and findingsBetween April 2015 and June 2016, a 15-month stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial was conducted in 116 villages in Myanmar (stepped monthly in blocks) to test the effectiveness of 12% N,N-diethylbenzamide w/w cream distributed by VHVs, on Plasmodium spp. infection. The median age of participants was 18 years, approximately half were female, and the majority were either village residents (46%) or forest dwellers (40%). No adverse events were reported during the study. Generalised linear mixed modelling estimated the effect of repellent on infection detected by rapid diagnostic test (RDT) (primary outcome) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) (secondary outcome). Overall Plasmodium infection detected by RDT was low (0.16%; 50/32,194), but infection detected by PCR was higher (3%; 419/13,157). There was no significant protection against RDT-detectable infection (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 0.25, 95% CI 0.004-15.2, p = 0.512). In Plasmodium-species-specific analyses, repellent protected against PCR-detectable P. falciparum (adjusted relative risk ratio [ARRR] = 0.67, 95% CI 0.47-0.95, p = 0.026), but not P. vivax infection (ARRR = 1.41, 95% CI 0.80-2.47, p = 0.233). Repellent effects were similar when delayed effects were modelled, across risk groups, and regardless of village-level and temporal heterogeneity in malaria prevalence. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was US$256 per PCR-detectable infection averted. Study limitations were a lower than expected Plasmodium spp. infection rate and potential geographic dilution of the intervention.ConclusionsIn this study, we observed apparent protection against new infections associated with the large-scale distribution of repellent by VHVs. Incorporation of repellent into national strategies, particularly in areas where bed nets are less effective, may contribute to the interruption of malaria transmission. Further studies are warranted across different transmission settings and populations, from the GMS and beyond, to inform WHO public health policy on the deployment of topical repellents for malaria prevention.Trial registrationAustralian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12616001434482).

Introduction Globally, an estimated 151 million children under 5 years of age still suffer from the adverse effects of stunting. We sought to develop and externally validate an early life predictive model that could be applied in infancy to accurately predict risk of stunting in preschool children.Methods We conducted two separate prospective cohort studies in Vietnam that intensively monitored children from early pregnancy until 3 years of age. They included 1168 and 475 live-born infants for model development and validation, respectively. Logistic regression on child stunting at 3 years of age was performed for model development, and the predicted probabilities for stunting were used to evaluate the performance of this model in the validation data set.Results Stunting prevalence was 16.9% (172 of 1015) in the development data set and 16.4% (70 of 426) in the validation data set. Key predictors included in the final model were paternal and maternal height, maternal weekly weight gain during pregnancy, infant sex, gestational age at birth, and infant weight and length at 6 months of age. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in the validation data set was 0.85 (95% Confidence Interval, 0.80–0.90).Conclusion This tool applied to infants at 6 months of age provided valid prediction of risk of stunting at 3 years of age using a readily available set of parental and infant measures. Further research is required to examine the impact of preventive measures introduced at 6 months of age on those identified as being at risk of growth faltering at 3 years of age.

BackgroundArtemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) is recommended for uncomplicated Plasmodium vivax malaria in areas of emerging chloroquine resistance. We undertook a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis to compare the efficacies of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) and artemether-lumefantrine (AL) with or without primaquine (PQ) on the risk of recurrent P. vivax.Methods and findingsClinical efficacy studies of uncomplicated P. vivax treated with DP or AL and published between January 1, 2000, and January 31, 2018, were identified by conducting a systematic review registered with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO): CRD42016053310. Investigators of eligible studies were invited to contribute individual patient data that were pooled using standardised methodology. The effect of mg/kg dose of piperaquine/lumefantrine, ACT administered, and PQ on the rate of P. vivax recurrence between days 7 and 42 after starting treatment were investigated by Cox regression analyses according to an a priori analysis plan. Secondary outcomes were the risk of recurrence assessed on days 28 and 63. Nineteen studies enrolling 2,017 patients were included in the analysis. The risk of recurrent P. vivax at day 42 was significantly higher in the 384 patients treated with AL alone (44.0%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 38.7-49.8) compared with the 812 patients treated with DP alone (9.3%, 95% CI 7.1-12.2): adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) 12.63 (95% CI 6.40-24.92), p < 0.001. The rates of recurrence assessed at days 42 and 63 were associated inversely with the dose of piperaquine: AHRs (95% CI) for every 5-mg/kg increase 0.63 (0.48-0.84), p = 0.0013 and 0.83 (0.73-0.94), p = 0.0033, respectively. The dose of lumefantrine was not significantly associated with the rate of recurrence (1.07 for every 5-mg/kg increase, 95% CI 0.99-1.16, p = 0.0869). In a post hoc analysis, in patients with symptomatic recurrence after AL, the mean haemoglobin increased 0.13 g/dL (95% CI 0.01-0.26) for every 5 days that recurrence was delayed, p = 0.0407. Coadministration of PQ reduced substantially the rate of recurrence assessed at day 42 after AL (AHR = 0.20, 95% CI 0.10-0.41, p < 0.001) and at day 63 after DP (AHR = 0.08, 95% CI 0.01-0.70, p = 0.0233). Results were limited by follow-up of patients to 63 days or less and nonrandomised treatment groups.ConclusionsIn this study, we observed the risk of P. vivax recurrence at day 42 to be significantly lower following treatment with DP compared with AL, reflecting the longer period of post-treatment prophylaxis; this risk was reduced substantially by coadministration with PQ. We found that delaying P. vivax recurrence was associated with a small but significant improvement in haemoglobin. These results highlight the benefits of PQ radical cure and also the provision of blood-stage antimalarial agents with prolonged post-treatment prophylaxis.

Renewed efforts to eliminate malaria have highlighted the potential to interrupt human-to-mosquito transmission — a process mediated by gametocyte kinetics in human hosts. Here we study the in vivo dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes by establishing a framework which incorporates improved measurements of parasitemia, a novel gametocyte dynamics model and model fitting using Bayesian hierarchical inference. We found that the model provides an excellent fit to the clinical data from 17 volunteers infected with P. falciparum (3D7 strain) and reliably predicts observed gametocytemia. We estimated the sexual commitment rate and gametocyte sequestration time to be 0.54% (95% credible interval: 0.30–1.00%) per asexual replication cycle and 8.39 (6.54–10.59) days respectively. We used the data-calibrated model to investigate human-to-mosquito transmissibility, providing a method to link within-human host infection kinetics to epidemiological-scale infection and transmission patterns.

Background: The Revitalizing Informal Settlements and their Environments (RISE) programme aims to assess the health, wellbeing, and ecological impacts of a water-sensitive-cities approach to improving urban informal settlements. Incorporating water-cycle management and green technology sanitation strategies, we aim to reduce flood risk and improve sanitation and waste water treatment leading to cleaner and healthier environments. Here we present the initial design pre-intervention for evaluation in the first 12 settlements in Makassar, Indonesia. Methods: Initial environmental, and wellbeing and human health assessments were implemented starting in October, 2018, in 12 settlements in Makassar, Indonesia. Ecological assessments include measuring of temperature and humidity via iButtons installed in select homes, recording of bio-acoustic to measure biodiversity within settlement boundaries, and trapping disease vectors quarterly. Implemented evaluation of environmental contamination includes sampling water and soil sources for total coliforms as well as collecting soil via bootsocks by walking predefined transects. Human assessment includes an annual baseline survey of all settlement households, assessing self-reported symptoms, health-care system utilisation, and subjective wellbeing. Additionally, children younger than 5 years are surveyed quarterly for caregiver reported symptoms of diarrhoea and febrile illness, blood samples and anthropometry are being collected annually, and faeces samples are requested quarterly. Findings: Ecological assessments have provided more than a million temperature data points. 21 000 mosquitos have been captured and identified. A total of 114 water samples, 84 bootsocks, and 91 soil samples have been collected, with sampling prior to and during the wet season. We have identified over 600 households within the 12 settlements. Health assessments of children under the age of 5 years have revealed 282 children with collection of 234 faeces samples and 188 blood samples. Interpretation: We have successfully implemented baseline ecological and human health and wellbeing assessment tools in all 12 settlements, which will allow for the evaluation of water-sensitive-cities approach in RISE programme. Funding: The Wellcome Trust (Our Planet, Our Health grant 205222/Z/16/Z).

BackgroundSevere falciparum malaria is a medical emergency characterised by potentially lethal vital organ dysfunction. Patient fatality rates even with parenteral artesunate treatment remain high. Despite considerable research into adjuvant therapies targeting organ and tissue dysfunction, none have shown efficacy apart from renal replacement therapy. Understanding the causal contributions of clinical and laboratory abnormalities to mortality is essential for the design and evaluation of novel therapeutic interventions.Methods and findingsWe used a structural model causal inference approach to investigate causal relationships between epidemiological, laboratory, and clinical variables in patients with severe falciparum malaria enrolled in clinical trials and their in-hospital mortality. Under this causal model, we analysed records from 9,040 hospitalised children (0-12 years, n = 5,635) and adults (n = 3,405, 12-87 years) with severe falciparum malaria from 15 countries in Africa and Asia who were studied prospectively over the past 35 years. On admission, patient covariates associated with increased in-hospital mortality were severity of acidosis (odds ratio [OR] 2.10 for a 7-mEq/L increase in base deficit [95% CI 1.93-2.28]), renal impairment (OR 1.71 for a 2-fold increase in blood urea nitrogen [95% CI 1.58, 1.86]), coma (OR 3.59 [95% CI 3.07-4.21]), seizures (OR 1.40 [95% CI 1.16-1.68]), shock (OR 1.51 [95% CI 1.14-1.99]), and presumed pulmonary oedema (OR 1.58 [95% CI 1.04-2.39]). Lower in-hospital mortality was associated with moderate anaemia (OR 0.87 for a decrease of 10 percentage points in haematocrit [95% CI 0.80-0.95]). Circulating parasite density was not associated with mortality (OR 1.02 for a 6-fold increase [95% CI 0.94-1.11]), so the pathological effects of parasitaemia appear to be mediated entirely by the downstream effects of sequestration. Treatment with an artemisinin derivative decreased mortality compared with quinine (OR 0.64 [95% CI 0.56-0.74]). These estimates were consistent across children and adults (mainly representing African and Asian patients, respectively). Using inverse probability weighting, transfusion was not estimated to be beneficial in children with admission haematocrit values between 15% and 25% (OR 0.99 [95% CI 0.97-1.02]). Except for the effects of artemisinin treatment and transfusion, causal interpretations of these estimates could be biased by unmeasured confounding from severe bacterial sepsis, immunity, and duration of illness.ConclusionThese data suggest that moderate anaemia is associated with a reduced risk of death in severe falciparum malaria. This is possibly a direct causal association. The severe anaemia threshold criteria for a definition of severe falciparum malaria should be reconsidered.

BackgroundMalaria control activities can have a disproportionately greater impact on Plasmodium falciparum than on P. vivax in areas where both species are coendemic. We investigated temporal trends in malaria-related morbidity and mortality in Papua, Indonesia, before and after introduction of a universal, artemisinin-based antimalarial treatment strategy for all Plasmodium species.Methods and findingsA prospective, district-wide malariometric surveillance system was established in April 2004 to record all cases of malaria at community clinics and the regional hospital and maintained until December 2013. In March 2006, antimalarial treatment policy was changed to artemisinin combination therapy for uncomplicated malaria and intravenous artesunate for severe malaria due to any Plasmodium species. Over the study period, a total of 418,238 patients presented to the surveillance facilities with malaria. The proportion of patients with malaria requiring admission to hospital fell from 26.9% (7,745/28,789) in the pre-policy change period (April 2004 to March 2006) to 14.0% (4,786/34,117) in the late transition period (April 2008 to December 2009), a difference of -12.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] -13.5% to -12.2%). There was a significant fall in the mortality of patients presenting to the hospital with P. falciparum malaria (0.53% [100/18,965] versus 0.32% [57/17,691]; difference = -0.21% [95% CI -0.34 to -0.07]) but not in patients with P. vivax malaria (0.28% [21/7,545] versus 0.23% [28/12,397]; difference = -0.05% [95% CI -0.20 to 0.09]). Between the same periods, the overall proportion of malaria due to P. vivax rose from 44.1% (30,444/69,098) to 53.3% (29,934/56,125) in the community clinics and from 32.4% (9,325/28,789) to 44.1% (15,035/34,117) at the hospital. After controlling for population growth and changes in treatment-seeking behaviour, the incidence of P. falciparum malaria fell from 511 to 249 per 1,000 person-years (py) (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.49 [95% CI 0.48-0.49]), whereas the incidence of P. vivax malaria fell from 331 to 239 per 1,000 py (IRR = 0.72 [95% CI 0.71-0.73]). The main limitations of our study were possible confounding from changes in healthcare provision, a growing population, and significant shifts in treatment-seeking behaviour following implementation of a new antimalarial policy.ConclusionsIn this area with high levels of antimalarial drug resistance, adoption of a universal policy of efficacious artemisinin-based therapy for malaria infections due to any Plasmodium species was associated with a significant reduction in total malaria-attributable morbidity and mortality. The burden of P. falciparum malaria was reduced to a greater extent than that of P. vivax malaria. In coendemic regions, the timely elimination of malaria will require that safe and effective radical cure of both the blood and liver stages of the parasite is widely available for all patients at risk of malaria.

BackgroundThe emergence and spread of multidrug-resistant Plasmodium falciparum in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) threatens global malaria elimination efforts. Mass drug administration (MDA), the presumptive antimalarial treatment of an entire population to clear the subclinical parasite reservoir, is a strategy to accelerate malaria elimination. We report a cluster randomised trial to assess the effectiveness of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) MDA in reducing falciparum malaria incidence and prevalence in 16 remote village populations in Myanmar, Vietnam, Cambodia, and the Lao People's Democratic Republic, where artemisinin resistance is prevalent.Methods and findingsAfter establishing vector control and community-based case management and following intensive community engagement, we used restricted randomisation within village pairs to select 8 villages to receive early DP MDA and 8 villages as controls for 12 months, after which the control villages received deferred DP MDA. The MDA comprised 3 monthly rounds of 3 daily doses of DP and, except in Cambodia, a single low dose of primaquine. We conducted exhaustive cross-sectional surveys of the entire population of each village at quarterly intervals using ultrasensitive quantitative PCR to detect Plasmodium infections. The study was conducted between May 2013 and July 2017. The investigators randomised 16 villages that had a total of 8,445 residents at the start of the study. Of these 8,445 residents, 4,135 (49%) residents living in 8 villages, plus an additional 288 newcomers to the villages, were randomised to receive early MDA; 3,790 out of the 4,423 (86%) participated in at least 1 MDA round, and 2,520 out of the 4,423 (57%) participated in all 3 rounds. The primary outcome, P. falciparum prevalence by month 3 (M3), fell by 92% (from 5.1% [171/3,340] to 0.4% [12/2,828]) in early MDA villages and by 29% (from 7.2% [246/3,405] to 5.1% [155/3,057]) in control villages. Over the following 9 months, the P. falciparum prevalence increased to 3.3% (96/2,881) in early MDA villages and to 6.1% (128/2,101) in control villages (adjusted incidence rate ratio 0.41 [95% CI 0.20 to 0.84]; p = 0.015). Individual protection was proportional to the number of completed MDA rounds. Of 221 participants with subclinical P. falciparum infections who participated in MDA and could be followed up, 207 (94%) cleared their infections, including 9 of 10 with artemisinin- and piperaquine-resistant infections. The DP MDAs were well tolerated; 6 severe adverse events were detected during the follow-up period, but none was attributable to the intervention.ConclusionsAdded to community-based basic malaria control measures, 3 monthly rounds of DP MDA reduced the incidence and prevalence of falciparum malaria over a 1-year period in areas affected by artemisinin resistance. P. falciparum infections returned during the follow-up period as the remaining infections spread and malaria was reintroduced from surrounding areas. Limitations of this study include a relatively small sample of villages, heterogeneity between villages, and mobility of villagers that may have limited the impact of the intervention. These results suggest that, if used as part of a comprehensive, well-organised, and well-resourced elimination programme, DP MDA can be a useful additional tool to accelerate malaria elimination.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT01872702.

Laboratory models are often used to understand the interaction of related pathogens via host immunity. For example, recent experiments where ferrets were exposed to two influenza strains within a short period of time have shown how the effects of cross-immunity vary with the time between exposures and the specific strains used. On the other hand, studies of the workings of different arms of the immune response, and their relative importance, typically use experiments involving a single infection. However, inferring the relative importance of different immune components from this type of data is challenging. Using simulations and mathematical modelling, here we investigate whether the sequential infection experiment design can be used not only to determine immune components contributing to cross-protection, but also to gain insight into the immune response during a single infection. We show that virological data from sequential infection experiments can be used to accurately extract the timing and extent of cross-protection. Moreover, the broad immune components responsible for such cross-protection can be determined. Such data can also be used to infer the timing and strength of some immune components in controlling a primary infection, even in the absence of serological data. By contrast, single infection data cannot be used to reliably recover this information. Hence, sequential infection data enhances our understanding of the mechanisms underlying the control and resolution of infection, and generates new insight into how previous exposure influences the time course of a subsequent infection.

Case fatality rates in severe falciparum malaria depend on the pattern and degree of vital organ dysfunction. Recent large-scale case-control analyses of pooled severe malaria data reported that glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency (G6PDd) was protective against cerebral malaria but increased the risk of severe malarial anaemia. A novel formulation of the balancing selection hypothesis was proposed as an explanation for these findings, whereby the selective advantage is driven by the competing risks of death from cerebral malaria and death from severe malarial anaemia. We re-analysed these claims using causal diagrams and showed that they are subject to collider bias. A simulation based sensitivity analysis, varying the strength of the known effect of G6PDd on anaemia, showed that this bias is sufficient to explain all of the observed association. Future genetic epidemiology studies in severe malaria would benefit from the use of causal reasoning.

Of the 4 million neonatal deaths worldwide yearly, 98% occur in low and middle-income countries. Effective resuscitation reduces mortality and morbidity but long-term outcomes in resource-limited settings are poorly described. This study reports on newborn neurological outcomes following resuscitation at birth in a resource-limited setting where intensive newborn care including intubation is unavailable.Retrospective analysis of births records from 2008 to 2015 at Shoklo Malaria Research Unit (SMRU) on the Thailand-Myanmar border.From 21,225 newbonrs delivered, 15,073 (71%) met the inclusion criteria (liveborn, singleton, ≥28 weeks' gestation, delivered in SMRU). Neonatal resuscitation was performed in 460 (3%; 422 basic, 38 advanced) cases. Overall early neonatal mortality was 6.6 deaths per 1000 live births (95% CI 5.40-8.06). Newborns receiving basic and advanced resuscitation presented an adjusted rate for death of 1.30 (95%CI 0.66-2.55; p = 0.442), and 6.32 (95%CI 3.01-13.26; p

Perinatal depression is common, and left untreated can have significant and long-lasting consequences for women, their children and their families. Migrant women are at particular risk of perinatal depression as a result of a multitude of stressors experienced before, during and after migration. Identification of perinatal depression among migrant women-particularly those living in low- and middle-income regions-remains challenging, partly due to the lack of locally-validated and culturally appropriate screens tools. This study formally validates Burmese and Sgaw Karen versions of the Refugee Health Screener-15 (RHS-15) as a screening tool for perinatal depression among migrant women living on the Thai-Myanmar border. The Structured Clinical Interview for the Diagnosis of DSM-IV Disorders (SCID) was used as the gold-standard comparator. Complete results were obtained for 235 Burmese-speaking and 275 Sgaw Karen-speaking women. Despite displaying reasonable psychometric properties, a number of shortcomings associated with the RHS-15 limited its utility in this setting. The Likert-type response categories of the RHS-15 proved problematic in this low-literacy population. Combined with the relative superiority and greater ease of administration of the SCID, the RHS-15 is not recommended as the tool of choice for detecting perinatal depression in this setting.

Primaquine is the only licensed drug for eradicating Plasmodium vivax hypnozoites and, therefore, preventing relapses of vivax malaria. It is a vital component of global malaria elimination efforts. Primaquine is efficacious when supervised in clinical trials, but its effectiveness in real-world settings is unknown. We aimed to determine whether unsupervised primaquine was effective for preventing re-presentation to hospital with vivax malaria in southern Papua, Indonesia.Routinely-collected hospital surveillance data were used to undertake a pragmatic comparison of the risk of re-presentation to hospital with vivax malaria in patients prescribed dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DHP) combined with primaquine versus those patients prescribed DHP alone. The omission of primaquine was predominantly due to 3 stock outages. Individual clinical, pharmacy, and laboratory data were merged using individual hospital identification numbers and the date of presentation to hospital. Between April 2004 and December 2013, there were 86,797 documented episodes of vivax malaria, of which 62,492 (72.0%) were included in the analysis. The risk of re-presentation with vivax malaria within 1 year was 33.8% (95% confidence Interval [CI] 33.1%-34.5%) after initial monoinfection with P. vivax and 29.2% (95% CI 28.1%-30.4%) after mixed-species infection. The risk of re-presentation with P. vivax malaria was higher in children 1 to

Chlamydia is the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infection among men who have sex with men. Repeat infection following treatment with 1g azithromycin is common and treatment failure of up to 22% has been reported. This study measured the pharmacokinetics of azithromycin in rectal tissue in men following a single 1g dose to assess whether azithromycin reaches the rectal site in adequate concentrations to kill chlamydia. Ten healthy men took a single oral dose of 1g azithromycin and provided nine self-collected swabs and one blood sample over 14 days. Participant demographics, medications, sexual behaviour, treatment side effects, lubricant use and douching practices were recorded with each swab. Drug concentration over time was determined using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry and total exposure (AUC0-∞) was estimated from the concentration-time profiles. Following 1g of azithromycin, rectal concentrations peaked after a median of 24 hours (median 133mcg/g) and remained above the minimum inhibitory concentration for chlamydia (0.125mcg/mL) for at least 14 days in all men. AUC0-∞ was the highest ever reported in human tissue (13103((mcg/g).hr)). Tissue concentrations were not associated with weight (mg/kg), but data suggest that increased gastric pH could increase azithromycin levels and diarrhoea or use of water-based lubricants could decrease concentrations. High and sustained concentrations of azithromycin were found in rectal tissue following a single 1g dose suggesting that inadequate concentrations are unlikely to cause treatment failure. Factors effecting absorption (pH and diarrhoea) or drug depletion (douching and water-based lubricants) may be more important determinants of concentrations in situ.

INTRODUCTION:During pregnancy, immunoglobulin G (IgG) is transferred from the mother to the fetus, providing protection from disease in early infancy. Plasmodium falciparum infections may reduce maternofetal antibody transfer efficiency, but mechanisms remain unclear. METHODS:Mother-cord paired serum samples collected at delivery from Papua New Guinea (PNG) and the Thailand-Myanmar Border Area (TMBA) were tested for IgG1 and IgG3 to four P. falciparum antigens and measles antigen, as well as total serum IgG. Multivariable linear regression was conducted to assess the association of peripheral P. falciparum infection during pregnancy or placental P. falciparum infection assessed at delivery with maternofetal antibody transfer efficiency. Path analysis assessed the extent to which associations between P. falciparum infection and antibody transfer were mediated by gestational age at delivery or levels of maternal total serum IgG. RESULTS:Maternofetal antibody transfer efficiency of IgG1 and IgG3 was lower in PNG compared to TMBA (mean difference in cord antibody levels (controlling for maternal antibody levels) ranged from -0.88 to 0.09, median of -0.20 log2 units). Placental P. falciparum infections were associated with substantially lower maternofetal antibody transfer efficiency in PNG primigravid women (mean difference in cord antibody levels (controlling for maternal antibody levels) ranged from -0.62 to -0.10, median of -0.36 log2 units), but not multigravid women. The lower antibody transfer efficiency amongst primigravid women with placental infection was only partially mediated by gestational age at delivery (proportion indirect effect ranged from 0% to 18%), whereas no mediation effects of maternal total serum IgG were observed. DISCUSSION:Primigravid women may be at risk of impaired maternofetal antibody transport with placental P. falciparum infection. Direct effects of P. falciparum on the placenta, rather than earlier gestational age and elevated serum IgG, are likely responsible for the majority of the reduction in maternofetal antibody transfer efficiency with placental infection.

Objective To determine the impact of tobacco control policies and mass media campaigns on smoking prevalence in Australian adults. Methods Data for calculating the average monthly prevalence of smoking between January 2001 and June 2011 were obtained via structured interviews of randomly sampled adults aged 18 years or older from Australia’s five largest capital cities (monthly mean number of adults interviewed: 2375). The influence on smoking prevalence was estimated for increased tobacco taxes; strengthened smoke-free laws; increased monthly population exposure to televised tobacco control mass media campaigns and pharmaceutical company advertising for nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), using gross ratings points; monthly sales of NRT, bupropion and varenicline; and introduction of graphic health warnings on cigarette packs. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to examine the influence of these interventions on smoking prevalence. Findings The mean smoking prevalence for the study period was 19.9% (standard deviation: 2.0%), with a drop from 23.6% (in January 2001) to 17.3% (in June 2011). The best-fitting model showed that stronger smoke-free laws, tobacco price increases and greater exposure to mass media campaigns independently explained 76% of the decrease in smoking prevalence from February 2002 to June 2011. Conclusion Increased tobacco taxation, more comprehensive smoke-free laws and increased investment in mass media campaigns played a substantial role in reducing smoking prevalence among Australian adults between 2001 and 2011.

Background: Individuals in conflict-affected areas rarely get appropriate care for chronic or non-infectious diseases. The prevalence of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is increasing worldwide, and new evidence shows conclusively that the negative effects of hyperglycemia occur even at mild glucose elevations and that these negative effects can be attenuated by treatment. Scientific literature on gestational diabetes in refugee camp settings is critically limited. Methods: A 75 g 2-hour glucose tolerance test was administered to 228 women attending the antenatal care (ANC) clinic in Maela refugee camp on the Thai–Myanmar border. Prevalence of GDM was determined using the HAPO trial cut-offs [≥92 mg/dL (fasting),≥180 (1 hour), and≥153 (2 hour)] and the WHO criteria [≥126 mg/dL (fasting), and 140 mg/dL (2 hour)]. Results: From July 2011 to March 2012, the prevalence of GDM was 10.1% [95% confidence interval (CI): 6.2–14.0] when the cut-off determined by the HAPO trial was applied. Applying the older WHO criteria yielded a prevalence of 6.6% (95% CI 3.3–9.8). Age, parity, and BMI emerged as characteristics that may be significantly associated with GDM in this population. Other risk factors that are commonly used in screening guidelines were not applicable in this diabetes-naïve population. Discussion: The prevalence of GDM is lower in this population compared with other populations, but still complicates 10% of pregnancies. New evidence regarding gestational diabetes raises new dilemmas for healthcare providers in resource-poor settings. Efforts to identify and treat patients at risk for adverse outcomes need to be balanced with awareness of the risks and burdens associated with over diagnosis and unnecessary interventions. Screening approaches based on risk factors or using higher cut-off values may help minimize this burden and identify those most likely to benefit from intervention.

Submicroscopic Plasmodium infections are an important parasite reservoir, but their clinical relevance is poorly defined. A cross-sectional household survey was conducted in southern Papua, Indonesia, using cluster random sampling. Data were recorded using a standardized questionnaire. Blood samples were collected for haemoglobin measurement. Plasmodium parasitaemia was determined by blood film microscopy and PCR. Between April and July 2013, 800 households and 2,830 individuals were surveyed. Peripheral parasitaemia was detected in 37.7% (968/2,567) of individuals, 36.8% (357) of whom were identified by blood film examination. Overall the prevalence of P. falciparum parasitaemia was 15.4% (396/2567) and that of P. vivax 18.3% (471/2567). In parasitaemic individuals, submicroscopic infection was significantly more likely in adults (adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 3.82 [95%CI: 2.49-5.86], p

Widespread discrimination across much of sub-Saharan Africa against persons with same-sex sexuality, including recent attempts in Uganda to extend criminal sanctions against same-sex behavior, are likely to have profound effects on this group's health, health care access, and well-being. Yet knowledge of the prevalence of same-sex sexuality in this region is scarce. This study aimed to systematically examine prevalence of same-sex sexuality and related health risks in young Ugandan adults. We conducted two cross-sectional survey studies in south-western Uganda targeting student samples (n = 980, n = 1954) representing 80% and 72% of the entire undergraduate classes attending a university in 2005 and 2010, respectively. A questionnaire assessed items concerning same-sex sexuality (same-sex attraction/fantasies, same-sex sexual relations), mental health, substance use, experience of violence, risky sexual behavior, and sexual health counseling needs. Our findings showed that same-sex sexual attraction/fantasies and behavior were common among male and female students, with 10-25% reporting having sexual attraction/fantasies regarding persons of the same-sex, and 6-16% reporting same-sex sexual relations. Experiences of same-sex sexuality were associated with health risks, e.g. poor mental health (2010, AOR = 1.5; 95% CI: 1.0-2.3), sexual coercion (2010, AOR 2.9; CI: 1.9-4.6), and unmet sexual health counseling needs (2010, AOR 2.2; CI: 1.4-3.3). This first study of young adults in Uganda with same-sex sexuality found high levels of health needs but poor access to health care. Effective response is likely to require major shifts in current policy, efforts to reduce stigmatization, and reorientation of health services to better meet the needs of this vulnerable group of young people.

BACKGROUND:Plasmodium malariae is a slow-growing parasite with a wide geographic distribution. Although generally regarded as a benign cause of malaria, it has been associated with nephrotic syndrome, particularly in young children, and can persist in the host for years. Morbidity associated with P. malariae infection has received relatively little attention, and the risk of P. malariae-associated nephrotic syndrome is unknown. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:We used data from a very large hospital-based surveillance system incorporating information on clinical diagnoses, blood cell parameters and treatment to describe the demographic distribution, morbidity and mortality associated with P. malariae infection in southern Papua, Indonesia. Between April 2004 and December 2013 there were 1,054,674 patient presentations to Mitra Masyarakat Hospital of which 196,380 (18.6%) were associated with malaria and 5,097 were with P. malariae infection (constituting 2.6% of all malaria cases). The proportion of malaria cases attributable to P. malariae increased with age from 0.9% for patients under one year old to 3.1% for patients older than 15 years. Overall, 8.5% of patients with P. malariae infection required admission to hospital and the median length of stay for these patients was 2.5 days (Interquartile Range: 2.0-4.0 days). Patients with P. malariae infection had a lower mean hemoglobin concentration (9.0 g/dL) than patients with P. falciparum (9.5 g/dL), P. vivax (9.6g/dL) and mixed species infections (9.3g/dL). There were four cases of nephrotic syndrome recorded in patients with P. malariae infection, three of which were in children younger than 5 years old, giving a risk in this age group of 0.47% (95% Confidence Interval; 0.10% to 1.4%). Overall, 2.4% (n = 16) of patients hospitalized with P. malariae infection subsequently died in hospital, similar to the proportions for the other endemic Plasmodium species (range: 0% for P. ovale to 1.6% for P. falciparum). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:Plasmodium malariae infection is relatively uncommon in Papua, Indonesia but is associated with significant morbidity from anemia and a similar risk of mortality to patients hospitalized with P. falciparum and P. vivax infection. In our large hospital database, one in 200 children under the age of 5 years with P. malariae infection were recorded as having nephrotic syndrome.

Successful control of falciparum malaria depends greatly on treatment with artemisinin combination therapies. Thus, reports that resistance to artemisinins (ARTs) has emerged, and that the prevalence of this resistance is increasing, are alarming. ART resistance has recently been linked to mutations in the K13 propeller protein. We undertook a detailed kinetic analysis of the drug responses of K13 wild-type and mutant isolates of Plasmodium falciparum sourced from a region in Cambodia (Pailin). We demonstrate that ART treatment induces growth retardation and an accumulation of ubiquitinated proteins, indicative of a cellular stress response that engages the ubiquitin/proteasome system. We show that resistant parasites exhibit lower levels of ubiquitinated proteins and delayed onset of cell death, indicating an enhanced cell stress response. We found that the stress response can be targeted by inhibiting the proteasome. Accordingly, clinically used proteasome inhibitors strongly synergize ART activity against both sensitive and resistant parasites, including isogenic lines expressing mutant or wild-type K13. Synergy is also observed against Plasmodium berghei in vivo. We developed a detailed model of parasite responses that enables us to infer, for the first time, in vivo parasite clearance profiles from in vitro assessments of ART sensitivity. We provide evidence that the clinical marker of resistance (delayed parasite clearance) is an indirect measure of drug efficacy because of the persistence of unviable parasites with unchanged morphology in the circulation, and we suggest alternative approaches for the direct measurement of viability. Our model predicts that extending current three-day ART treatment courses to four days, or splitting the doses, will efficiently clear resistant parasite infections. This work provides a rationale for improving the detection of ART resistance in the field and for treatment strategies that can be employed in areas with ART resistance.

Estimating gestational age in resource-limited settings is prone to considerable inaccuracy because crown-rump length measured by ultrasound before 14 weeks gestation, the recommended method for estimating gestational age, is often unavailable. Judgements regarding provision of appropriate obstetric and neonatal care are dependent on accurate estimation of gestational age. We determined the accuracy of the Dubowitz Gestational Age Assessment, a population-specific symphysis-fundal height formula, and ultrasound biometry performed between 16 and 40 weeks gestation in estimating gestational age using pre-existing data from antenatal clinics of the Shoklo Malaria Research Unit on the Thai-Myanmar border, where malaria is endemic. Two cohorts of women who gave birth to live singletons were analysed: 1) 250 women who attended antenatal care between July 2001 and May 2006 and had both ultrasound crown-rump length (reference) and a Dubowitz Gestational Age Assessment; 2) 975 women attending antenatal care between April 2007 and October 2010 who had ultrasound crown-rump length, symphysis-fundal measurements, and an additional study ultrasound (biparietal diameter and head circumference) randomly scheduled between 16 and 40 weeks gestation. Mean difference in estimated newborn gestational age between methods and 95% limits of agreement (LOA) were determined from linear mixed-effects models. The Dubowitz method and the symphysis-fundal height formula performed well in term newborns, but overestimated gestational age of preterms by 2.57 weeks (95% LOA: 0.49, 4.65) and 3.94 weeks (95% LOA: 2.50, 5.38), respectively. Biparietal diameter overestimated gestational age by 0.83 weeks (95% LOA: -0.93, 2.58). Head circumference underestimated gestational age by 0.39 weeks (95% LOA: -2.60, 1.82), especially if measured after 24 weeks gestation. The results of this study can be used to quantify biases associated with alternative methods for estimating gestational age in the absence of ultrasound crown-rump length to inform critical clinical judgements in this population, and as a point of reference elsewhere.

BackgroundThe association between change in weight or body mass index, and mortality is widely reported, however, both measures fail to account for fat distribution. Change in waist circumference, a measure of central adiposity, in relation to mortality has not been studied extensively.MethodsWe investigated the association between mortality and changes in directly measured waist circumference, hips circumference and weight from baseline (1990-1994) to wave 2 (2003-2007) in a prospective cohort study of people aged 40-69 years at baseline. Cox regression, with age as the time metric and follow-up starting at wave 2, adjusted for confounding variables, was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for change in body size in relation to mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease and cancer.ResultsThere were 1465 deaths (109 cancer, 242 cardiovascular disease) identified during an average 7.7 years of follow-up from 21 298 participants. Compared to minimal increase in body size, loss of waist circumference (HR: 1.26; 95% CI: 1.09-1.47), weight (1.80; 1.54-2.11), or hips circumference (1.35; 1.15-1.57) were associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality, particularly for older adults. Weight loss was associated with cardiovascular disease mortality (2.40; 1.57-3.65) but change in body size was not associated with obesity-related cancer mortality.ConclusionThis study confirms the association between weight loss and increased mortality from all-causes for older adults. Based on evidence from observational cohort studies, weight stability may be the recommended option for most adults, especially older adults.

The association between malaria during pregnancy and low birth weight (LBW) is well described. This manuscript aims to quantify the relative contribution of malaria to small-for-gestational-age (SGA) infants and preterm birth (PTB) in pregnancies accurately dated by ultrasound on the Thai-Myanmar border at the Shoklo Malaria Research Unit.From 2001 to 2010 in a population cohort of prospectively followed pregnancies, we analyzed all singleton newborns who were live born, normal, weighed in the first hour of life and with a gestational age (GA) between 28+0 and 41+6 weeks. Fractional polynomial regression was used to determine the mean birthweight and standard deviation as functions of GA. Risk differences and factors of LBW and SGA were studied across the range of GA for malaria and non-malaria pregnancies. From 10,264 newborns records, population centiles were created. Women were screened for malaria by microscopy a median of 22 [range 1-38] times and it was detected and treated in 12.6% (1,292) of pregnancies. Malaria was associated with LBW, PTB, and SGA compared to those without malaria. Nearly two-thirds of PTB were classified as LBW (68% (539/789)), most of which 83% (447/539) were not SGA. After GA 39 weeks, 5% (298/5,966) of non-LBW births were identified as SGA. Low body mass index, primigravida, hypertension, smoking and female sex of the newborn were also significantly and independently associated with LBW and SGA consistent with previous publications.Treated malaria in pregnancy was associated with an increased risk for LBW, PTB, and SGA, of which the latter are most important for infant survival. Using LBW as an endpoint without adjusting for GA incorrectly estimated the effects of malaria in pregnancy. Ultrasound should be used for dating pregnancies and birth weights should be expressed as a function (or adjusted for GA) of GA in future malaria in pregnancy studies.

Vitamin D deficiency affects 1 billion people globally. It has an important role in bone homeostasis, brain development and modulation of the immune system and yet the impact of antenatal vitamin D deficiency on infant outcomes is poorly understood. We assessed the association of 25- hydroxyvitamin D levels (25-OHD) in late pregnancy and early infant growth and developmental outcomes in rural Vietnam.A prospective cohort study of 960 women who had previously participated in a double-blind cluster randomized controlled trial of antenatal micronutrient supplementation in rural Vietnam was undertaken. Maternal 25-OHD concentration was measured at 32 weeks gestation, and infants were followed until 6 months of age. Main outcome measures were cognitive, motor, socio-emotional and language scores using the Bayley Scales of Infant Development, 3rd edition, and infant length-for-age z scores at 6 months of age.60% (582/960) of women had 25-OHD levels

The burden of anemia attributable to non-falciparum malarias in regions with Plasmodium co-endemicity is poorly documented. We compared the hematological profile of patients with and without malaria in southern Papua, Indonesia.Clinical and laboratory data were linked for all patients presenting to a referral hospital between April 2004 and December 2012. Data were available on patient demographics, malaria diagnosis, hemoglobin concentration, and clinical outcome, but other potential causes of anemia could not be identified reliably. Of 922,120 patient episodes (837,989 as outpatients and 84,131 as inpatients), a total of 219,845 (23.8%) were associated with a hemoglobin measurement, of whom 67,696 (30.8%) had malaria. Patients with P. malariae infection had the lowest hemoglobin concentration (n = 1,608, mean = 8.93 [95% CI 8.81-9.06]), followed by those with mixed species infections (n = 8,645, mean = 9.22 [95% CI 9.16-9.28]), P. falciparum (n = 37,554, mean = 9.47 [95% CI 9.44-9.50]), and P. vivax (n = 19,858, mean = 9.53 [95% CI 9.49-9.57]); p-value for all comparisons

BACKGROUND: Anemia affects over 500 million women, and in pregnancy is associated with impaired maternal and infant outcomes. Intermittent antenatal iron supplementation is an attractive alternative to daily dosing; however, the impact of this strategy on infant outcomes remains unclear. We compared the effect of intermittent antenatal iron supplementation with daily iron supplementation on maternal and infant outcomes in rural Viet Nam. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This cluster randomised trial was conducted in Ha Nam province, Viet Nam. 1,258 pregnant women (< 16 wk gestation) in 104 communes were assigned to daily iron-folic acid (IFA), twice weekly IFA, or twice weekly multiple micronutrient (MMN) supplementation. Primary outcome was birth weight. Mean birth weight was 3,148 g (standard deviation 416). There was no difference in the birth weights of infants of women receiving twice weekly IFA compared to daily IFA (mean difference [MD] 28 g; 95% CI -22 to 78), or twice weekly MMN compared to daily IFA (MD -36.8 g; 95% CI -82 to 8.2). At 32 wk gestation, maternal ferritin was lower in women receiving twice weekly IFA compared to daily IFA (geometric mean ratio 0.73; 95% CI 0.67 to 0.80), and in women receiving twice weekly MMN compared to daily IFA (geometric mean ratio 0.62; 95% CI 0.57 to 0.68), but there was no difference in hemoglobin levels. Infants of mothers who received twice weekly IFA had higher cognitive scores at 6 mo of age compared to those who received daily IFA (MD 1.89; 95% CI 0.23 to 3.56). CONCLUSIONS: Twice weekly antenatal IFA or MMN did not produce a clinically important difference in birth weight, when compared to daily IFA supplementation. The significant improvement in infant cognitive outcomes at 6 mo of age following twice weekly antenatal IFA requires further exploration, and provides additional support for the use of intermittent, rather than daily, antenatal IFA in populations with low rates of iron deficiency. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australia New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry 12610000944033.

The analysis of in vitro anti-malarial drug susceptibility testing is vulnerable to the effects of different statistical approaches and selection biases. These confounding factors were assessed with respect to pfmdr1 gene mutation and amplification in 490 clinical isolates. Two statistical approaches for estimating the drug concentration associated with 50% effect (EC50 ) were compared: the commonly used standard two-stage (STS) method, and nonlinear mixed-effects modelling. The in vitro concentration-effect relationships for, chloroquine, mefloquine, lumefantrine and artesunate, were derived from clinical isolates obtained from patients on the western border of Thailand. All isolates were genotyped for polymorphisms in the pfmdr1 gene. The EC50 estimates were similar for the two statistical approaches but 15-28% of isolates in the STS method had a high coefficient of variation (>15%) for individual estimates of EC50 and these isolates had EC50 values that were 32 to 66% higher than isolates derived with more precision. In total 41% (202/490) of isolates had amplification of pfmdr1 and single nucleotide polymorphisms were found in 50 (10%). Pfmdr1 amplification was associated with an increase in EC50 for mefloquine (139% relative increase in EC50 for 2 copies, 188% for 3+ copies), lumefantrine (82% and 75% for 2 and 3+ copies respectively) and artesunate (63% and 127% for 2 and 3+ copies respectively). In contrast pfmdr1 mutation at codons 86 or 1042 were associated with an increase in chloroquine EC50 (44-48%). Sample size calculations showed that to demonstrate an EC50 shift of 50% or more with 80% power if the prevalence was 10% would require 430 isolates and 245 isolates if the prevalence was 20%. In conclusion, although nonlinear mixed-effects modelling did not demonstrate any major advantage for determining estimates of anti-malarial drug susceptibility, the method includes all isolates, thereby, potentially improving confirmation of candidate molecular markers of anti-malarial drug susceptibility.

The emergence of highly chloroquine (CQ) resistant P. vivax in Southeast Asia has created an urgent need for an improved understanding of the mechanisms of drug resistance in these parasites, the development of robust tools for defining the spread of resistance, and the discovery of new antimalarial agents. The ex vivo Schizont Maturation Test (SMT), originally developed for the study of P. falciparum, has been modified for P. vivax. We retrospectively analysed the results from 760 parasite isolates assessed by the modified SMT to investigate the relationship between parasite growth dynamics and parasite susceptibility to antimalarial drugs. Previous observations of the stage-specific activity of CQ against P. vivax were confirmed, and shown to have profound consequences for interpretation of the assay. Using a nonlinear model we show increased duration of the assay and a higher proportion of ring stages in the initial blood sample were associated with decreased effective concentration (EC(50)) values of CQ, and identify a threshold where these associations no longer hold. Thus, starting composition of parasites in the SMT and duration of the assay can have a profound effect on the calculated EC(50) for CQ. Our findings indicate that EC(50) values from assays with a duration less than 34 hours do not truly reflect the sensitivity of the parasite to CQ, nor an assay where the proportion of ring stage parasites at the start of the assay does not exceed 66%. Application of this threshold modelling approach suggests that similar issues may occur for susceptibility testing of amodiaquine and mefloquine. The statistical methodology which has been developed also provides a novel means of detecting stage-specific drug activity for new antimalarials.

The World Health Organization recommends insecticidal bednets and intermittent preventive treatment to reduce malaria in pregnancy. Longitudinal data of malaria prevalence and pregnancy outcomes are valuable in gauging the impact of these antimalarial interventions.We recruited 8,131 women delivering in a single Malawian hospital over 9 years. We recorded demographic data, antenatal prescription of intermittent preventive therapy during pregnancy with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine and bed net use, and examined finger-prick blood for malaria parasites and hemoglobin concentration. In 4,712 women, we examined placental blood for malaria parasites and recorded the infant's birth weight. Peripheral and placental parasitemia prevalence declined from 23.5% to 5.0% and from 25.2% to 6.8% respectively. Smaller declines in prevalence of low birth weight and anemia were observed. Coverage of intermittent preventive treatment and bednets increased. Number of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine doses received correlated inversely with placental parasitemia (Odds Ratio (95% CI): 0.79 (0.68, 0.91)), maternal anemia (0.81, (0.73, 0.90)) and low birth weight from 1997-2001 (0.63 (0.53, 0.75)), but not from 2002-2006. Bednet use protected from peripheral parasitemia (0.47, (0.37, 0.60)) and placental parasitemia (0.41, (0.31, 0.54)) and low birth weight (0.75 (0.59, 0.95)) but not anemia throughout the study. Compared to women without nets who did not receive 2-dose sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine, women using nets and receiving 2-dose sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine were less likely to have parasitemia or low birth weight babies. Women receiving 2-dose sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine alone had little evidence of protection whereas bednets alone gave intermediate protection.Increased bednet coverage explains changes in parasitemia and birth weight among pregnant women better than sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine use. High bed net coverage, and sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance, may be contributing to its apparent loss of effectiveness.

Culture remains the diagnostic gold standard for many bacterial infections, and the method against which other tests are often evaluated. Specificity of culture is 100% if the pathogenic organism is not found in healthy subjects, but the sensitivity of culture is more difficult to determine and may be low. Here, we apply Bayesian latent class models (LCMs) to data from patients with a single Gram-negative bacterial infection and define the true sensitivity of culture together with the impact of misclassification by culture on the reported accuracy of alternative diagnostic tests.Data from published studies describing the application of five diagnostic tests (culture and four serological tests) to a patient cohort with suspected melioidosis were re-analysed using several Bayesian LCMs. Sensitivities, specificities, and positive and negative predictive values (PPVs and NPVs) were calculated. Of 320 patients with suspected melioidosis, 119 (37%) had culture confirmed melioidosis. Using the final model (Bayesian LCM with conditional dependence between serological tests), the sensitivity of culture was estimated to be 60.2%. Prediction accuracy of the final model was assessed using a classification tool to grade patients according to the likelihood of melioidosis, which indicated that an estimated disease prevalence of 61.6% was credible. Estimates of sensitivities, specificities, PPVs and NPVs of four serological tests were significantly different from previously published values in which culture was used as the gold standard.Culture has low sensitivity and low NPV for the diagnosis of melioidosis and is an imperfect gold standard against which to evaluate alternative tests. Models should be used to support the evaluation of diagnostic tests with an imperfect gold standard. It is likely that the poor sensitivity/specificity of culture is not specific for melioidosis, but rather a generic problem for many bacterial and fungal infections.

BACKGROUND: One of the criteria to objectively prioritize merozoite antigens for malaria vaccine development is the demonstration that naturally acquired antibodies are associated with protection from malaria. However, published evidence of the protective effect of these antibodies is conflicting. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We performed a systematic review with meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies examining the association between anti-merozoite immunoglobin (Ig) G responses and incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Two independent researchers searched six databases and identified 33 studies that met predefined inclusion and quality criteria, including a rigorous definition of symptomatic malaria. We found that only five studies were performed outside sub-Saharan Africa and that there was a deficiency in studies investigating antibodies to leading vaccine candidates merozoite surface protein (MSP)-1(42) and erythrocyte binding antigen (EBA)-175. Meta-analyses of most-studied antigens were conducted to obtain summary estimates of the association between antibodies and incidence of P. falciparum malaria. The largest effect was observed with IgG to MSP-3 C terminus and MSP-1(19) (responders versus nonresponders, 54%, 95% confidence interval [CI] [33%-68%] and 18% [4%-30%] relative reduction in risk, respectively) and there was evidence of a dose-response relationship. A tendency towards protective risk ratios (RR