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An exemplar of nature-based solutions (NBS) is natural flood management (NFM), for which interest is growing worldwide. As with many NBS, implementing NFM requires the participation of support of multiple stakeholders. However, we lack understanding about the views and expectations of the many stakeholders who might be expected to enable or implement it. Understanding such views may offer insights regarding whether and how the dominant flood risk management protection paradigm is really being challenged. Using the first survey (N = 118) across a range of water and environmental management stakeholders in the United Kingdom (UK), this research explores whether there is support for a paradigm shift to “work with nature” as intended with NBS. We find evidence that some stakeholders view NFM as a “no-brainer”; a judgement based on perceived cost-effectiveness, social and environmental benefits and the failure of the protection paradigm exposed in recent floods. Others, typically farmers and landowners, have more cautious views about change. All our respondents generally agree that responsibility to enable, implement, and fund NFM should be shared across society, but disagreements remain about the detail and the basis for any enabling payments. We argue that the shared perception of roles and responsibilities provides a foundation for further work to facilitate NFM, explicitly considering principles and specific contractual details. In the UK, the possibilities of post-Brexit agri-environment policy make such a debate particularly pertinent. It is also likely to be productive in many other cases and places, since the paradigm shift entailed by ideal visions of NBS often entails new relationships between stakeholders and new activities ‘on the ground’.

Global water security presents a complex problem for human societies and will become more acute as the impacts of climate change escalate. Water security connects the practical water and sanitation challenges of households to the dynamics of global hydroclimates and ecosystems in the Anthropocene. To ensure the successful deployment of attention and resources, it is necessary to identify the most pressing questions for water research. Here, we present the results of a scoping exercise conducted across the global water sector. More than 400 respondents submitted an excess of 4,000 potential questions. Drawing on expert analysis, we highlight 100 indicative research questions across six thematic domains: water and sanitation for human settlements; water and sanitation safety risk management; water security and scarcity; hydroclimate-ecosystem-Anthropocene dynamics; multi-level governance; and knowledge production. These questions offer an interdisciplinary and multi-scalar framework for guiding the nature and space of water research for the coming decades.

El agua es un recurso natural que cumple múltiples funciones en los procesos de desarrollo (satisfacción de necesidades básicas de la población, configuración de los ecosistemas y paisajes, factor de producción en diversas actividades económicas, etc.) Dada su importancia vital, así como su carácter de bien económico, las autoridades públicas han tenido un papel relevante como agentes reguladores de su utilización. El último hito en este sentido lo constituye la Directiva Marco del Agua. Uno de los aspectos más novedosos de esta norma europea es el uso del análisis económico al objeto de optimizar los diferentes usos del recurso. Sin embargo, el desarrollo de los trabajos realizados en esta línea para el diseño de los nuevos planes hidrológicos ha evidenciado diversas carencias en el análisis económico de los usos del agua, el análisis de la recuperación de costes por los servicios del agua y la selección de las medidas para la consecución de tales objetivos. Del estudio de dichas limitaciones se deduce la necesidad de reforzar la relación entre las administraciones encargadas de la gestión del agua y el mundo académico, de modo que pueda hacerse un uso más riguroso y efectivo del abundante conocimiento científico existente en esta materia.

Highlights • Stakeholders hold complex roles, capacities, power. • Stakeholders can be read as complex entities within complex social-ecological systems. • Deeper reading of stakeholders is important for identifying leveragers for sustainability transformations., Phosphorus is a critical agricultural nutrient and a major pollutant in waterbodies due to inefficient use. In the form of rock phosphate it is a finite global commodity vulnerable to price shocks and sourcing challenges. Transforming toward sustainable phosphorus management involves local to global stakeholders. Conventional readings of stakeholders may not reflect system complexity leaving it difficult to see stakeholder roles in transformations. We attempt to remedy this issue with a novel stakeholder analysis method based on five qualitative pillars: stakeholder agency, system roles, power and influence, alignment to the problem, and transformational potential. We argue that our approach suits case studies of individual stakeholders, stakeholder groups, and organisations with relationships to sustainability challenges.

Ecosystem degradation represents one of today’s major global challenges, threatening human well-being and livelihoods worldwide. To reverse continuing degradation, we need to understand its socio-economic consequences so that these can be incorporated into ecosystem management decisions. This requires links to be made between our understanding of how ecosystems function and change, with socially meaningful representations of those changes. While increasing attempts are being made at such integration, the interface or translation between those two strands remains largely undiscussed. This carries the risk that key aspects of the socio-ecological interactions become ‘lost in translation’. In this paper, we document and discuss how models of ecosystem change may be combined with socially meaningful outcomes exposing and discussing the translation process itself (i.e. the ‘translation key’). For this, we use an exemplar based on peatland condition. We employ a process-based model, DigiBog, to simulate the effects of land use on blanket peatlands, which we relate to estimates of changes to the public’s well-being derived from peatland degradation and restoration, obtained as monetary values from a choice experiment survey in Scotland (UK). By quantifying linkages between environmental conditions and social values, we make the translation between these system components transparent and allow value estimates to be recalculated under different ecological scenarios, or as new evidence emerges. This enhances the replicability of the research and can better inform decision-making. By using peatlands as the exemplar ecosystem, this paper also contributes to a limited body of evidence on the socio-economic impacts of changes to the most space-effective carbon store in the terrestrial biosphere.

The chaotic distribution and dispersal of phosphorus (P) used in food systems (defined here as disorderly disruptions to the P cycle) is harming our environment beyond acceptable limits. An analysis of P stores and flows across Europe in 2005 showed that high fertiliser P inputs relative to productive outputs was driving low system P efficiency (38 % overall). Regional P imbalance (P surplus) and system P losses were highly correlated to total system P inputs and animal densities, causing unnecessary P accumulation in soils and rivers. Reducing regional P surpluses to zero increased system P efficiency (+ 16 %) and decreased total P losses by 35 %, but required a reduction in system P inputs of ca. 40 %, largely as fertiliser. We discuss transdisciplinary and transformative solutions that tackle the P chaos by collective stakeholder actions across the entire food value chain. Lowering system P demand and better regional governance of P resources appear necessary for more efficient and sustainable food systems. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-019-01255-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The estimation of marginal utility of income in discrete choice experiments is of crucial importance for the estimation of willingness to pay (WTP) and welfare estimates. Despite this central importance, there are only few investigations into the impact of the design of the cost attribute vector on choices and WTP estimates. We present a conceptual framework that describes why cost vector effects might occur in choice experiments, and investigate cost vector effects empirically drawing on data from a choice experiment in the context of peatland restoration in Scotland. This study employs a split sample approach with three different cost vectors that vary considerably in the cost levels offered to respondents, and investigates differences between treatments with respect to marginal WTP estimates, status quo choice, use of systematic decision strategies and attribute non-attendance. A key finding is that the choice of cost vectors can affect the incidence of decision strategies. After accounting for the differential use of a decision strategy that might not be consistent with random utility modelling, cost vectors that are higher in magnitude result in higher WTP, in line with an anchoring hypothesis. We find weak support that marginal WTP of lower income respondents is affected differently compared to higher income respondents through the use of different cost vectors. Differences in welfare estimates resulting from the use of different cost vectors might change outcomes of cost-benefit analyses. We therefore recommend that researchers include tests of sensitivity of welfare estimates to different cost vectors in their study design.

Agriculture is both the cornerstone of global food security and one of the main drivers of environmental degradation. To address existing and potential environmental impacts of agriculture, policymakers are increasingly focussing on influencing farmers’ behaviour to adopt best management practices (BMPs). One of the strategies adopted is the provision of advice aimed at raising awareness of environmental pollution and mitigation measures. By improving farmers’ awareness, it is expected that changes in behaviour would be reflected in the adoption of BMPs. This expectation is based on the assumption of a direct link between awareness and uptake of BMPs. So far, however, the limited empirical research has shown that, while there is a link between awareness and adoption, this link is indirect and is mediated and moderated by other factors. One of the potential intervening factors that remains poorly understood is the enabling capacity that experiential learning brings. Through a mixed-methods approach, we explored farmers’ awareness and the role of experiential learning in the adoption of BMPs. The study focusses on the experiential learning process associated with the use of nutrient management plans to reduce diffuse water pollution from agriculture in the context of a soil sampling scheme in Northern Ireland (UK). Overall, we found that while advice seems to have contributed to increased uptake of BMPs, likelihood of adoption increased if the farmers had prepared the nutrient management plans themselves. This shows the critical role that experiential learning plays in deepening farmers’ understanding and increasing the likelihood of adopting BMPs. This provides support for the conceptual premise that while information provision is important, farmers need to actively engage in and be able to reflect on the practice for it to lead to behavioural changes. The role of experiential learning also suggests the need to move from the predominant model of a unidirectional relationship (the notion that the relationship always starts from awareness to behaviour), to a bidirectional one (i.e. from behaviour to awareness) and such interactions need to be understood through analysing the feedback loops over time. More research on this could offer insights into effective ways to help farmers adopt BMPs and ultimately contribute to reducing the environmental impacts of agricultural land management.

Ecosystems can buffer against adverse events and, by so doing, reduce the costs of risk-bearing to society; benefits which have been termed ‘insurance value’. Although the terminology is recent, the concept is older and has its roots in ecological resilience. However, a synthesis of studies through the lens of the insurance value concept is lacking. Here we fill this important knowledge gap by conducting a rapid evidence assessment on how, where and why the insurance value of ecosystems has been measured. The review highlighted the often substantial positive values that were associated with restoration, rehabilitation or avoidance of loss of natural ecosystems. However, many regions, ecosystems and hazards are not widely researched. Most studies focused on forests, agriculture and wetlands, often with an emphasis on habitat restoration to reduce flood risks. Over half the studies provided non-monetary or monetary estimates of value, reporting, for example, improved ecological function, achieved/achievable cost reductions or willingness-to-pay. Nevertheless, the evidence-base remains fragmentary and is characterised by inconsistent reporting of valuation methodologies. This precludes drawing general conclusions. We recommend that future studies of insurance value adopt a common approach to facilitate the development of a more robust evidence-base.

Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) are becoming increasingly widespread as they are being promoted by government and non-governmental organisations across the globe. Alongside this, an academic debate has unfolded regarding how PES ought to be conceptualized and defined. Using the first survey of environmental professionals on this topic, we explore their position in this conceptual debate in the UK. Our study shows that all aspects of the key academic debates are reflected in the views of environmental professionals, whose range of understandings suggests no viewpoint is either dominant or uncontested. Expecting all to share a single 'perfect' definition of PES may be neither necessary nor feasible. However, at present this term invokes a very wide range of ideas that may generate frictions as PES are further implemented. This risks PES becoming a ‘mess’ from which few insights can be derived as to whether, when and why they are useful instruments. It essential that those debating and proposing PES concepts more closely consider the complex processes by which professionals engage with and shape its application as an abstract construct.

Relational values have recently emerged as a novel concept for research on human-environment relationships, seeking to understand ethical principles that may foster environmental stewardship, coupled with a recognition of nature’s contributions to people. At present, most empirical research on relational values uses qualitative methods. Here we review some of the reasons that may have contributed to the lack of quantitative research, besides noting that a lot of existing quantitative empirical research on human-environment relationships already deals with relational values, even if it does not use that terminology. We suggest that incorporating quantitative approaches into the methodological toolkit of relational values research has a number of benefits: First, it contributes to the empirical evidence base testing hypotheses and assumptions emerging from qualitative and conceptual work. Second, it may help identifying core relational values shared across cultures, and this way improve communication and cooperation across different cultures. Third, it may improve the political legitimacy of environmental decision-making via statistically representative measurements of public views. Complementing qualitative with quantitative approaches for relational values research is also in the spirit of integrated valuation and value pluralism.

This research was funded by a Scottish Government Hydro Nation Scholarship. A growing body of research suggests that people’s values may be important predictors of their preferences regarding water governance and policy. However, this assertion is rarely tested empirically. The present study summarises the results of a large-scale quantitative study on the link between public water policy preferences and people’s values, based on data from a representative sample of the general population collected in a household survey in the Upper Paraguay River Basin, Mato Grosso, Brazil (n=1067). Structural equation modelling is applied to represent the clusters of values, or ‘value landscapes’, that shape attitudes and water policy preferences, in this case, for or against the construction of the highly controversial Paraguay-Paraná Waterway across the Pantanal wetland. Results demonstrate that opponents of the waterway share a value landscape composed of closely related self-transcendence values, democratic governance-related values, and ecological and cultural water values, whereas supporters hold self-enhancement values, economic governance-related values, and economic water values. Beyond this individual case study and beyond water governance, our findings may explain the protracted nature of, and seeming impossibility to resolve, environmental conservation vs. economic development conflicts more broadly. Postprint

Despite several decades of research and financial commitment, diffuse water pollution remains a major problem threatening the health and resilience of social-ecological systems. New approaches to tackle diffuse pollution emphasise awareness raising and provision of advice with the aim of triggering behavioural change. However, empirical evidence on the effectiveness of this approach remains scarce and mixed, with most studies relying on smaller datasets and case studies. Using one of the largest datasets (N = 1,995) with this information, this study seeks to establish quantitatively the relationship between farmers’ stated awareness of diffuse pollution mitigation measures and their compliance with them, through the analysis of Scotland’s pioneer advice-driven approach. Results from a conditional process modelling suggest awareness might not directly determine compliance but influences it indirectly through the mediating effect of other environmental management practices (in this study reflected in participation in agri-environmental schemes). This mediated relationship appears to be contingent on farm type and location. This would indicate that while public efforts in awareness creation is important, awareness alone is not sufficient to improve compliance; farmers may need to consistently engage in environmental management practices to develop a deeper understanding of the problem and action strategies. In this context, agri-environmental schemes appear to provide an opportunity for the creation of tacit knowledge and understanding of diffuse pollution mitigation measures through experiential learning which may also lead to the creation of new values.

The Water Framework Directive aims to achieve ‘good status’ for all water bodies in the European Union. However, exemption clauses enable member states to delay protective measures and to lower water quality objectives. The ambiguity of exemption clauses has led to a plurality of approaches across the continent. They differ as to their political objectives, i.e., the overall ambition displayed in implementing the Directive, and to their methodological choices, i.e., the analytical tools used to justify exemptions. This article argues that those political and methodological dimensions influence each other. Relying on a framework of analysis that integrates key recommendations from the literature, we explore the usage and justification of exemptions in two countries, the United Kingdom and France. Our analysis suggests that analytical methods were often decided so as to reflect the ecological ambitions of a country, and some methodological choices seem to have had unintended consequences for water quality objectives. We conclude that economic methods should be adapted so that they take into account, rather than ignore, the political ambitions of a country in the field of water.

Restoration offers opportunities for securing and enhancing critical ecosystem services provided by peatlands, such as carbon storage, water retention and water quality, and support for biodiversity and wildlife. A comprehensive valuation encompassing the relevant public benefits of restoration and how these compare with it is lacking to date, leaving policy makers with little guidance with respect to the economic efficiency of restoring this climate-critical ecosystem. Using Scotland as a case study, this paper quantifies the non-market benefits of changes in peatland ecological condition associated with changes in ecosystem service provision and depending on the location of restoration efforts. Benefits on a per hectare basis are compared to varying capital and recurrent cost in a net present value space, providing a benchmark to be used in decision making on investments into peatland restoration. The findings suggest that peatland restoration is likely to be welfare enhancing. Benefits also exceed cost in appraisals of previous and future public investments into peatland restoration. The results thus strengthen the economic rationale for climate change mitigation through improved peatland management.

The concept of Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) is globally of increasing interest. However, little is known about the views and expectations of professionals and practitioners expected to enable or implement this concept. Since these individuals design, select, shape and deliver environmental management, their views and expectations are critical to understanding how PES may play out in practice. Using the first survey on this topic, in the UK this research discusses the implications for future research and environmental management. Responses indicate a range of views about PES and its potential effects. Most expect to see greater use of PES in future; and are cautiously positive about the environmental, social and economic consequences of doing so. Many hope PES may overcome existing challenges facing environmental management, subject to conditions or changes. The research also revealed tensions related to broader challenges in environmental governance – e.g. calls for standardisation may conflict with requests for adaptability. Meanwhile, other expectations – e.g. improved engagement with groups currently uninterested in the environment – indicate priorities that may be better addressed with other instruments. Varied views are likely in most countries and must be assessed to better understand the prospects and potential of PES.

The sustainable exploitation of phosphorus (P) is essential for food and water security. However, our current poor management of this essential nutrient represents a pressing challenge, which cause global scale pollution of water resources(2) while failing to achieve equitable access to fertilizers to support food production worldwide.(3) This is, in part, due to poor uptake of advances, for example, in new technologies to reduce losses of P from agriculture, in our understanding of P thresholds for ecosystem functioning, and in sustainable urban development approaches focused on nutrient recycling systems. We identify, here, a pressing need to develop a new generation of nutrient sustainability professionals working collectively to implement diverse and interdiciplinary approaches within large scale urban and rural planning, for example, following the UNESCO Global Action Programme on Education for Sustainable Development, to meet the diverse needs of communities and countries.

Ecosystem restoration and, in particular, peatland restoration, are considered a promising greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategy to move towards net zero emissions. To remain within acceptable limits for projected warming scenarios, inaction with respect to GHG mitigation in the short term implies a need for even larger removals of GHGs in the longer term, which can be conceptualized as a ‘mitigation debt’. This paper explores the economic implications of delaying GHG mitigation through ecosystem restoration using data of a large survey (N = 1377) that included a choice experiment to elicit the public’s willingness to pay (WTP) for peatland restoration in Scotland, UK. The valuation specifically considers the interaction between the timing of restoration action and long-term ecosystem resilience. We find that respondents have a substantial WTP for peatland restoration. Importantly, we find considerable benefits for early restoration action (up to £191 million annually in our case study), which is linked to an increased resilience of peatlands under future climate change. This demonstrates that delaying restoration and thus accumulating a mitigation debt has an important opportunity cost that substantially decreases the related economic benefits. Attitudes towards climate change and climate change beliefs are found to explain variation in the public’s WTP. Our research strengthens the economic argument for not delaying climate change mitigation through ecosystem restoration, demonstrating that the mitigation debt also translates into a welfare loss. To fully realise the potential benefits associated with immediate mitigation using peatland restoration, however, more needs to be understood about the mechanisms that facilitate large-scale implementation in practice.

Most conservation efforts today recognise the need to involve the public if conservation is to succeed in the long-term. A common approach has been to try to educate the public on why they should care. However, information campaigns are often not effective in changing opinions, let alone behaviour. In this paper, we try establishing the basis for alternative approaches based on understanding people's motivations, perceptions and relationship with nature. Using focus groups, we look at the case of peatlands in Scotland, as an example of an ecosystem which is currently the focus of many conservation and restoration initiatives while seen as ‘problematic’ in the sense that those advocating its conservation assume that the general public does not care about peatlands. Our results show that perceptions of peatlands are ambivalent and many-facetted, and that they can be understood, metaphorically speaking, as good, bad and ugly at the same time: they can be seen as bleak wastelands; beautiful, wild nature and cultural landscape. The multiple and ambivalent views of ecosystems such as peatlands seem not to stem necessarily from lack of knowledge, but to be linked to biophysical characteristics, history, trade-offs between different uses and differences in personal relationships with nature. To ensure the long-term success of conservation, it is vital to understand and manage the public's different and ambivalent views about and attitudes towards landscapes of a greater or lesser degree of wilderness. Many practitioners have now come to accept and manage the fact that there is uncertainty in relation to the outcomes of the biophysical processes underpinning ecosystem restoration. It is now necessary to acknowledge human ambivalence and to find mechanisms for dealing with it. This should become one of the new pillars of conservation practice.

Some scholars promote water governance as a normative concept to improve water resources management globally, while others conceive of it as an analytical term to describe the processes, systems and institutions around the management of water resources and water supply. Critics often highlight how specific water governance scenarios fail to deliver socially desirable outcomes, such as social justice or environmental sustainability. While water governance is often perceived as a technical matter, its conceptual and practical components are in fact based on multiple values that, nonetheless, often remain implicit. The present paper seeks to uncover this value base and discusses existing research on values from multiple perspectives, using material from economics, philosophy, psychology, and other social sciences. In different disciplines, values can be understood as fundamental guiding principles, governance-related values or as values assigned to water resources. Together, they shape complex relationships with water governance, which from an analytical perspective is understood as a combination of policy, politics, and polity. Introducing a new conceptual framework, this study seeks to provide a theoretical foundation for empirical research on water governance processes and conflicts

Ecosystem services (ES) has established itself as the predominant paradigm for framing environmental research and policy-making. Its rapid popularisation is raising concerns about the possibility that it might lead to nature commodification. These concerns have been associated with a broader agenda for the neoliberalization of conservation, but research on this area remains mostly theoretical. This paper advances the debate with an empirical study on the views of environmental professionals. The views of those who shape interpretation, uptake and implementation environmental practice are of critical importance since they give the real mark on whether any fundamental change in the current direction of environmental governance is to be expected. Using Mexico as an exemplar case of a country in which ES have clearly entered the environmental discourse provides a forewarning of what might happen more broadly. Results indicate that, while acknowledging risks of commodification, environmental professionals consider a greater risk ‘missing out’ on opportunities to internalize ES monetary values in an economic growth-oriented context. They seem to see negative side-effects as ‘necessary evils’ to achieve conservation targets. Any substantial change in environmental governance is more likely to occur due to the disenchantment produced by the lack of impact of ES-based approaches in practice than of fears of commodification.

Diffuse water pollution from agriculture (DWPA) is a major environmental issue worldwide causing eutrophication, human health problems, increased water treatment costs and reducing the recreational potential of water bodies. In addition to penalties and provision of incentives, policy efforts are increasingly focusing on raising land managers’ awareness regarding diffuse pollution under the expectation that this would influence behaviours and thus increase uptake of best management practices that would, in turn, improve water quality. Given the multimillion financial investments in these awareness-focused approaches, a good understanding of the awareness–behavioural change–water quality pathway is critical to set the basis for assessing the real potential of these policy interventions. We systematically review the evidence across the full pathway drawing on published peer-reviewed papers from both the social and natural sciences, with a focus on Europe and North America. Results indicate that there is no one study that looks at the pathway in full, evidencing the paucity of research on the topic. For the limited studies that focus on the different components of the pathway, we find mixed evidence for the relationship between awareness and behaviour, and behavioural change and water quality. Furthermore, complexity within the pathway (e.g., through the study of factors mediating and moderating such relationships) has hardly been addressed by the literature. An in-depth understanding and analysis of this complexity—through an integrative model covering the entire pathway—could help in the design and implementation of effective policy strategies to encourage best land management practices and ultimately improve water quality.

Efforts to tackle diffuse water pollution from agriculture are increasingly focusing on improving farmers' awareness under the expectation that this would contribute to adoption of best management practices (BMPs) and, in turn, result in water quality improvements. To date, however, no study has explored the full awareness-behaviour-water quality pathway; with previous studies having mostly addressed the awareness-behaviour link relying on disciplinary approaches. Using an interdisciplinary approach, we investigate whether awareness-focussed approaches to mitigating diffuse water pollution from agriculture indeed result in water quality improvement, addressing the pathway in full. We worked with Dŵr Cymru Welsh Water (a water and waste utility company in the UK) on a pesticide pollution intervention programme, referred to as "weed wiper trial". The main goal of the trial was to raise farmers' awareness regarding pesticide management practices and to promote uptake of BMPs to tackle the rising concentrations of the pesticide MCPA (2-methyl-4-chlorophenoxyacetic acid) in raw water in three catchments in Wales. Using factorial analysis of variance, we analysed MCPA concentrations from 2006 to 2019 in the three targeted catchments and in three control catchments. This was followed by semi-structured in-depth interviews with institutional stakeholders and farmers with varying degrees of exposure to the weed wiper trial. Results show that MCPA concentration for both targeted and control catchments had reduced after the implementation of the weed wiper trial. However, the decline was significantly larger (F(1) = 6.551, p

Background Interest in impact evaluation has grown rapidly as research funders increasingly demand evidence that their investments lead to public benefits. Aims This paper analyses literature to provide a new definition of research impact and impact evaluation, develops a typology of research impact evaluation designs, and proposes a methodological framework to guide evaluations of the significance and reach of impact that can be attributed to research. Method An adapted Grounded Theory Analysis of research impact evaluation frameworks drawn from cross-disciplinary peer-reviewed and grey literature. Results Recognizing the subjective nature of impacts as they are perceived by different groups in different times, places and cultures, we define research impact evaluation as the process of assessing the significance and reach of both positive and negative effects of research. Five types of impact evaluation design are identified encompassing a range of evaluation methods and approaches: i) experimental and statistical methods; ii) textual, oral and arts-based methods; iii) systems analysis methods; iv) indicator-based approaches; and v) evidence synthesis approaches. Our guidance enables impact evaluation design to be tailored to the aims and context of the evaluation, for example choosing a design to establish a body of research as a necessary (e.g. a significant contributing factor amongst many) or sufficient (e.g. sole, direct) cause of impact, and choosing the most appropriate evaluation design for the type of impact being evaluated. Conclusion Using the proposed definitions, typology and methodological framework, researchers, funders and other stakeholders working across multiple disciplines can select a suitable evaluation design and methods to evidence the impact of research from any discipline.

Environmental change requires adaptive responses that are innovative, forward-looking and anticipatory, in order to meet goals for sustainability in socio-ecological systems. This implies transformative shifts in understanding as conceptualised by the idea of ‘double’- or ‘triple-loop learning’. Achieving this can be difficult as communities often rely on shorter-term coping mechanisms that purport to maintain the status quo. The use of participatory scenario planning to stimulate forward-looking social learning for adaptation was investigated through three contrasting community case studies on natural resource management in Latin America (in Mexico, Argentina and Colombia). Exploratory scenario narratives that synthesised local knowledge and future perceptions were used iteratively to define response options considered robust across multiple futures. Despite its intensive format, participants in each case agreed that scenario planning enabled a more systematic appraisal of the future. Scenarios facilitated innovation by providing scope to propose new types of responses and associated actions. Differences in local context meant that learning about future change developed in diverse ways, showing a need for a reflexive process. Reframing of key issues characteristic of double-loop learning did occur, albeit through different forms of interaction in each location. However, a shift towards transformative actions characteristic of triple-loop learning was less evident. Achieving this would appear to require ongoing use of scenarios to challenge social norms in light of changing drivers. Use of learning loops as a diagnostic to evaluate adaptive responses provided a useful reference framework although in practice both innovation and consolidative approaches can develop concurrently for responses to different issues.

Stated preference methods are frequently employed to measure people's willingness to pay (WTP) for ecosystem services. However, these techniques are also criticized for following a simplified approach, which often ignores the role of complex psychological and sociological factors, such as general environmental attitudes and place identity beliefs. By means of a discrete choice experiment exercise, we explored the influence of general environmental attitudes and place identity perceptions on WTP, taking peatland restoration in Scotland as a case study. Our research adds to the existing literature by providing a more nuanced picture of the determinants of WTP and by exploring and mapping the distribution of the estimated welfare measures. Our results, obtained from the estimation of hybrid choice models, show that people with more positive environmental attitudes and greater attachment to peatlands and Scotland tend to display higher WTP for peatland restoration. However, differences exist across respondents, depending on their socio-demographic profile and the geographical area. A better understanding of the heterogeneity of preferences for ecosystem services is helpful to guide more efficient policy design and to inform policy-makers about the distributional impacts of planned policies for equity considerations in project appraisal.

Environmental policies in the realm of land management are increasingly focussing on inducing behavioural change to improve environmental management outcomes. This is based, implicitly or explicitly, on theories that suggest that pro-environmental behaviour can be understood, predicted and altered based on certain factors (referred to as determinants of pro-environmental behaviour). However, studies examining the determinants of pro-environmental behaviour have found mixed evidence. It is therefore important that we revisit these theories to assess if the evidence supports their postulations so that a more robust knowledge base can be established to inform land management policies. In this study, we do this using meta-analytic structural equation modelling (MASEM) to explore whether the evidence on determinants of pro-environmental behaviour supports the postulations of some predominantly applied theories of behaviour and/or behaviour change. The study analyses research in four environmental policy areas to identify implications for land management. Evidence from these related environmental areas is expected to provide insights relevant to the land management literature and to allow us to identify the extent to which lessons on pro-environmental behaviour from these other areas can be transferred to the land management context. Our findings suggest a strong evidence base for the Theories of Planned Behaviour and Reasoned Action, Attitude-Behaviour-Context Model, and the Persuasion Theory, but a weak evidence base for the Value-Belief-Norm Theory and the Norm Activation Model. We also found that type of environmental policy area moderates the relationship between different variables. This has key policy implications since, while lessons can be learnt from other environmental policy areas, land management policies aimed at influencing behaviours will need to be tailored to the specific context rather than simply ‘imported’ from other fields. Such context-specific policies may encourage pro-environmental behaviours, and potentially contribute towards improving environmental management outcomes.

The Aichi 2020 Targets, under the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), aim to halt the loss of biodiversity by 2020, in order to ensure that ecosystems continue to provide essential services. Here we apply a social–ecological systems analysis to provide insight into the diverse system interactions that pose impediments to delivery of the Aichi Targets. We applied an analytical framework of pair-wise exchanges along six axes between the social, economic, environmental and political loci of the global social–ecological system. The analysis identified that many impediments result from partial decoupling in the system through phenomena including delayed feedbacks and insufficient information flows. It suggests 15 of the Aichi Targets are unlikely to be delivered; 3 are likely to be delivered in part; and 2 in full. We considered how interventions at leverage points may overcome the impediments, and compared these to actions included within the Implementation Decision for the Aichi Targets, to find gaps. These new leverage points to fill identified gaps involve many aspects of system re-coupling: co-production of knowledge and more equitable food systems governance (environmental–social axis); support for social change movements (social–political axis); an appropriate financial target for biodiversity conservation investment, with a clear means of implementation such as a currency transaction tax (economic– political axis); and co-governance of natural resources (environmental–political axis). The recently released Global Biodiversity Outlook 4 shows that 18 of the 20 Aichi Targets are tracking in accordance with our analysis; and that current efforts are unlikely to result in an improvement in the base state of biodiversity by 2020, confirming some of our results. We argue that attention to the interactions within, and the partial decoupling of, the global social–ecological system provides new insights, and is worthy of further attention both for delivery of the Aichi Targets and for guiding longer term actions for the conservation of biodiversity

The Water Framework Directive (WFD) prescribes the use of economic tools and principles so that its ecological targets are achieved in an economically efficient manner. The aim is to establish the least-costly combination of measures to be included in basin management plans. Moreover, the WFD allows the derogation of environmental objectives if meeting them has disproportionately high costs. The application of these principles adds new complexity to the management of water resources, which is recognized to be a ‘wicked problem’. Arguably, the complex and dynamic nature of water problems requires flexible decision-making that embraces a diversity of knowledge types and values. In this research, natural and socio-economic scientists worked together in the development of an integrated approach that is ‘ground-tested’ through local stakeholders’ knowledge and views by means of participatory methods. The two key aims of the methodological approach presented in the paper were: (1) develop a set of steps for implementing this transdisciplinary approach to meeting WFD objectives, and (2) critically reflect on the opportunities and limitations of integrating different strands of knowledge. The approach was tested at the sub-catchment level in Scotland. Hydro-chemical models are used to simulate sub-catchment scale effectiveness of a set of pollution mitigation measures for improving water quality The results from hydro-chemical modelling were incorporated into a cost-optimization model, which allows the selection and ranking of economically-efficient combination of measures. Costs of measures were then compared with benefits resulting from the improvement of water quality. This analysis is accompanied by an iterative local stakeholder consultation process, which shapes the process and offers a way of contrasting scientific findings with local perceptions. The research further analyses whether the selected measures are ‘future-proof’, in view of projected climate and land use change scenarios. Results are used to help set the research agenda for devising a more realistic specification of economically sound and socially acceptable management options to deliver WFD compliance under current and future conditions., JRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Economy

There is a well-established body of literature on monetary valuation of water ecosystem services to support the case for sustaining tropical forests. However, this literature is heterogeneous in its purposes and approaches and has not been carefully compared, providing a fragmented view of the values of forest water services. This paper addresses this knowledge gap through an orderly review and a regression meta-analysis of existing valuation studies at the regional level in South and Central America. This analysis allows identifying some factors that systematically influence forest values. However, it also reveals a lack of a systematized approach to valuation and a lack of sufficiently coherent evidence. This represents a barrier for the incorporation of the values of water ecosystem services into decision-making.

While many studies have employed stated preferences methods to estimate the value of non-market ecosystem goods and services, contingent valuation (CV) still generates a significant amount of criticism. Besides ethical concerns, two of the key criticisms relate to insensitivity to scope and order effects. We examine the expectation that the presence of order effects in stepwise disclosure procedures affects the degree of scope sensitivity. We use data from a CV exercise asking farmers in Southern Spain to value two different levels of guarantee of water supply for irrigation in a context of water scarcity. We find that despite order effects being present, they do not affect the existence or the degree of sensitivity to scope. We conclude that, in the light of the mixed evidence found in the literature and the results of our study, it does not seem justified to ascribe order effects and their connection with sensitivity to scope to study design alone (e.g. step-wise versus advanced disclosure, top-down versus bottom-up). The nature of the environmental good under valuation also matters. Our study of irrigation water as a common-pool resource suggests that, when clear private benefits also exist, these appear to override any 'good cause dumping effect' that might arise from the public good component.

The interface between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems contributes to the provision of key ecosystem services including improved water quality and reduced flood risk. We develop an ecological–economic model using a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) to assess and value the delivery of ecosystem services from riparian buffer strips. By capturing the interactions underlying ecosystem processes and the delivery of services we aim to further the operationalization of ecosystem services approaches. The model is developed through outlining the underlying ecological processes which deliver ecosystem services. Alternative management options and regional locations are used for sensitivity analysis. We identify optimal management options but reveal relatively small differences between impacts of different management options. We discuss key issues raised as a result of the probabilistic nature of the BBN model. Uncertainty over outcomes has implications for the approach to valuation particularly where preferences might exhibit non-linearities or thresholds. The interaction between probabilistic outcomes and the statistical nature of valuation estimates suggests the need for further exploration of sensitivity in such models. Although the BBN is a promising participatory decision support tool, there remains a need to understand the trade-off between realism, precision and the benefits of developing joint understanding of the decision context.