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Environmental conditions can create spatial and temporal variability in growth and distribution processes, yet contemporary stock assessment methods often do not explicitly address the consequences of these patterns. For example, stock assessments often assume that body weight-at-age (i.e. size) is constant across the stocks’ range, and may thereby miss important spatio-temporal patterns. This is becoming increasingly relevant given climate-driven distributional shifts, because samples for estimating size-at-age can be spatially unbalanced and lead to biases when extrapolating into unsampled areas. Here, we jointly analysed data on the local abundance and size of walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus) in the Bering Sea, to demonstrate a tractable first step in expanding spatially unbalanced size-at-age samples, while incorporating fine-scale spatial and temporal variation for inclusion in stock assessments. The data come from NOAA’s bottom trawl survey data and were evaluated using a multivariate spatio-temporal statistical model. We found extensive variation in size-at-age at fine spatial scales, though specific patterns differed between age classes. In addition to persistent spatial patterns, we also documented year-to-year differences in the spatial patterning of size-at-age. Intra-annual variation in the population-level size-at-age (used to generate the size-at-age matrix in the stock assessment) was largely driven by localized changes in fish size, while shifts in species distribution had a smaller effect. The spatio-temporal size-at-age matrix led to marginal improvement in the stock assessment fit to the survey biomass index. Results from our case study suggest that accounting for spatially unbalanced sampling improved stock assessment consistency. Additionally, it improved our understanding on the dynamics of how local and population-level demographic processes interact. As climate change affects fish distribution and growth, integrating spatiotemporally explicit size-at-age processes with anticipated environmental conditions may improve stock-assessment forecasts used to set annual harvest limits.

As global climates shift, coastal systems experience changes that alter function within the tidal zone. However, it remains uncertain how changes in tidal extent and magnitude will alter coastal biogeochemical cycling. We present high‐frequency data collected in situ along two transects across a tidal creek and floodplain to capture how vertical and lateral connectivity changes act as biogeochemical control points. Using wavelet coherence analysis, we identified short periods of vertical tide–floodplain connectivity during spring tides followed by extended periods of floodplain isolation from tides. During a drier period, neap tides were linked to lateral creek–floodplain connectivity, detected by discharge of saline, oxygen‐depleted groundwater to the creek on ebb tides. We estimate that up to half of creek water throughout the tidal cycle was associated with floodplain drainage. From point measurements of carbon, nitrogen, and greenhouse gases along the creek–floodplain transect, we infer that lateral connectivity functions as a biogeochemically significant control point.

Coastal terrestrial–aquatic interfaces (TAIs) are dynamic zones of biogeochemical cycling influenced by salinity gradients. However, there is significant heterogeneity in salinity influences on TAI soil biogeochemical function. This heterogeneity is perhaps related to unrecognized mechanisms associated with carbon (C) chemistry and microbial communities. To investigate this potential, we evaluated hypotheses associated with salinity-associated shifts in organic C thermodynamics; biochemical transformations; and nitrogen-, phosphorus-, and sulfur-containing heteroatom organic compounds in a first-order coastal watershed on the Olympic Peninsula of Washington, USA. In contrast to our hypotheses, thermodynamic favorability of water-soluble organic compounds in shallow soils decreased with increasing salinity (43–867 µS cm−1), as did the number of inferred biochemical transformations and total heteroatom content. These patterns indicate lower microbial activity at higher salinity that is potentially constrained by accumulation of less-favorable organic C. Furthermore, organic compounds appeared to be primarily marine- or algae-derived in forested floodplain soils with more lipid-like and protein-like compounds, relative to upland soils that had more lignin-, tannin-, and carbohydrate-like compounds. Based on a recent simulation-based study, we further hypothesized a relationship between C chemistry and the ecological assembly processes governing microbial community composition. Null modeling revealed that differences in microbial community composition – assayed using 16S rRNA gene sequencing – were primarily the result of limited exchange of organisms among communities (i.e., dispersal limitation). This results in unstructured demographic events that cause community composition to diverge stochastically, as opposed to divergence in community composition being due to deterministic selection-based processes associated with differences in environmental conditions. The strong influence of stochastic processes was further reflected in there being no statistical relationship between community assembly processes (e.g., the relative influence of stochastic assembly processes) and C chemistry (e.g., heteroatom content). This suggests that microbial community composition does not have a mechanistic or causal linkage to C chemistry. The salinity-associated gradient in C chemistry was, therefore, likely influenced by a combination of spatially structured inputs and salinity-associated metabolic responses of microbial communities that were independent of community composition. We propose that impacts of salinity on coastal soil biogeochemistry need to be understood in the context of C chemistry, hydrologic or depositional dynamics, and microbial physiology, while microbial composition may have less influence.

Increasing sea levels associated with climate change threaten the survival of coastal forests, yet the mechanisms by which seawater exposure causes tree death remain poorly understood. Despite the potentially crucial role of nonstructural carbohydrate (NSC) reserves in tree survival, their dynamics in the process of death under seawater exposure are unknown. Here we monitored progressive tree mortality and associated NSC storage in Sitka-spruce (Picea sitchensis) trees dying under ecosystem-scale increases in seawater exposure in western Washington, USA. All trees exposed to seawater, because of monthly tidal intrusion, experienced declining crown foliage during the sampling period, and individuals with a lower percentage of live foliated crown (PLFC) died faster. Tree PLFC was strongly correlated with subsurface salinity and needle ion contents. Total NSC concentrations in trees declined remarkably with crown decline, and reached extremely low levels at tree death (2.4% and 1.6% in leaves and branches, respectively, and 0.4% in stems and roots). Starch in all tissues was almost completely consumed, while sugars remained at a homeostatic level in foliage. The decreasing NSC with closer proximity to death and near zero starch at death are evidences that carbon starvation occurred during Sitka-spruce mortality during seawater exposure. Our results highlight the importance of carbon storage as an indicator of tree mortality risks under seawater exposure.

Coastal terrestrial-aquatic interfaces (TAIs) are dynamic zones of biogeochemical cycling influenced by salinity gradients. However, there is significant heterogeneity in salinity influences on TAI soil biogeochemical function. This heterogeneity is perhaps related to unrecognized mechanisms associated with carbon (C) chemistry and microbial communities. To investigate this potential, we evaluated hypotheses associated with salinity-associated shifts in organic C thermodynamics, biochemical transformations, and heteroatom content in a first-order coastal watershed in the Olympic Peninsula of Washington state, USA. In contrast to our hypotheses, thermodynamic favorability of water soluble organic compounds in shallow soils decreased with increasing salinity, as did the number of inferred biochemical transformations and total heteroatom content. These patterns indicate lower microbial activity at higher salinity that is potentially constrained by accumulation of less favorable organic C. Furthermore, organic compounds appeared to be primarily marine/algal-derived in forested floodplain soils with more lipid-like and protein-like compounds, relative to upland soils that had more lignin-, tannin-, and carbohydrate-like compounds. Based on a recent simulation-based study, we further hypothesized a relationship between microbial community assembly processes and C chemistry. Null modelling revealed strong influences of dispersal limitation over microbial composition, which may be due to limited hydrologic connectivity within the clay-rich soils. Dispersal limitation indicated stochastically assembled communities, which was further reflected in the lack of an association between community assembly processes and C chemistry. This suggests a disconnect between microbial community composition and C biogeochemistry, thereby indicating that the salinity-associated gradient in C chemistry was driven by a combination of spatially-structured inputs and salinity-associated metabolic responses of microbial communities that were independent of community composition. We propose that impacts of salinity on coastal soil biogeochemistry need to be understood in the context of C chemistry, hydrologic/depositional dynamics, and microbial physiology, while microbial composition may have less influence.