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International audience; Climate variability in the tropical Pacific affects global climate on a wide range of time scales. On interannual time scales, the tropical Pacific is home to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Decadal variations and changes in the tropical Pacific, referred to here collectively as tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV), also profoundly affect the climate system. Here, we use TPDV to refer to any form of decadal climate variability or change that occurs in the atmosphere, the ocean, and over land within the tropical Pacific. “Decadal,” which we use in a broad sense to encompass multiyear through multidecadal time scales, includes variability about the mean state on decadal time scales, externally forced mean-state changes that unfold on decadal time scales, and decadal variations in the behavior of higher-frequency modes like ENSO.

The La Niña and El Niño phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have major impacts on regional rainfall patterns around the globe, with substantial environmental, societal and economic implications. Long-term perspectives on ENSO behaviour, under changing background conditions, are essential to anticipating how ENSO phases may respond under future climate scenarios. Here, we derive a 7700-year, quantitative precipitation record using carbon isotope ratios from a single species of leaf preserved in lake sediments from subtropical eastern Australia. We find a generally wet (more La Niña-like) mid-Holocene that shifted towards drier and more variable climates after 3200 cal. yr BP, primarily driven by increasing frequency and strength of the El Niño phase. Climate model simulations implicate a progressive orbitally-driven weakening of the Pacific Walker Circulation as contributing to this change. At centennial scales, high rainfall characterised the Little Ice Age (~1450-1850 CE) in subtropical eastern Australia, contrasting with oceanic proxies that suggest El Niño-like conditions prevail during this period. Our data provide a new western Pacific perspective on Holocene ENSO variability and highlight the need to address ENSO reconstruction with a geographically diverse network of sites to characterise how both ENSO, and its impacts, vary in a changing climate.

The remoteness of the northern Great Barrier Reef makes observations of environmental change and coral health sparse, but provides opportunities for paleoclimate and paleoecology proxies to contribute new insights into coral health in a changing climate. These proxies include geochemical measures (δ18O, δ13C, and Sr/Ca) that track sea surface temperature (SST), salinity, and physiological processes; luminescence, which records freshwater input; and annual growth parameters (density, extension, and calcification). Merging these approaches provides insight into the historical role of environmental variability in coral health. This study uses Porites spp. corals from five sites on the northern Great Barrier Reef (12–13.5°S) to produce combined monthly resolved records of geochemistry, growth banding, and luminescence between 1972 and 2008. We demonstrate that SST reconstructed from Sr/Ca accurately captures Indo-Pacific Warm Pool variability, and hydrological proxies (luminescence and seawater δ18O) accurately reconstruct summer rainfall and river discharge in nearshore corals. Concurrent Sr/Ca minima and density and luminescence peaks from two sites demonstrate that high-density bands are generally formed during summer at these sites, which aids the development of future coral paleoclimate and paleoecology chronologies. Regional hydrological proxies showed more consistent responses to El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events than SST proxies, in agreement with instrumental data. Because these corals, like instrumental records, show no consistently large ENSO heat extremes, we find no consistent growth anomalies during historical ENSO events. Our results highlight the unusual nature of recent widespread and severe coral bleaching and establish groundwork for exploring the response of northern GBR corals to past climate variations.

Multidecadal hydroclimate variability has been expressed as “megadroughts” (dry periods more severe and prolonged than observed over the twentieth century) and corresponding “megapluvial” wet periods in many regions around the world. The risk of such events is strongly affected by modes of coupled atmosphere–ocean variability and by external impacts on climate. Accurately assessing the mechanisms for these interactions is difficult, since it requires large ensembles of millennial simulations as well as long proxy time series. Here, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Last Millennium Ensemble is used to examine statistical associations among megaevents, coupled climate modes, and forcing from major volcanic eruptions. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strongly affects hydroclimate extremes: larger ENSO amplitude reduces megadrought risk and persistence in the southwestern United States, the Sahel, monsoon Asia, and Australia, with corresponding increases in Mexico and the Amazon. The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) also alters megadrought risk, primarily in the Caribbean and the Amazon. Volcanic influences are felt primarily through enhancing AMO amplitude, as well as alterations in the structure of both ENSO and AMO teleconnections, which lead to differing manifestations of megadrought. These results indicate that characterizing hydroclimate variability requires an improved understanding of both volcanic climate impacts and variations in ENSO/AMO teleconnections.

Accurate assessments of future climate impacts require realistic simulation of interannual–century-scale temperature and precipitation variability. Here, well-constrained paleoclimate data and the latest generation of Earth system model data are used to evaluate the magnitude and spatial consistency of climate variance distributions across interannual to centennial frequencies. It is found that temperature variance generally increases with time scale in patterns that are spatially consistent among models, especially over the mid- and high-latitude oceans. However, precipitation is similar to white noise across much of the globe. When Earth system model variance is compared to variance generated by simple autocorrelation, it is found that tropical temperature variability in Earth system models is difficult to distinguish from variability generated by simple autocorrelation. By contrast, both forced and unforced Earth system models produce variability distinct from a simple autoregressive process over most high-latitude oceans. This new analysis of tropical paleoclimate records suggests that low-frequency variance dominates the temperature spectrum across the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans, but in many Earth system models, interannual variance dominates the simulated central and eastern tropical Pacific temperature spectrum, regardless of forcing. Tropical Pacific model spectra are compared to spectra from the instrumental record, but the short instrumental record likely cannot provide accurate multidecadal–centennial-scale variance estimates. In the coming decades, both forced and natural patterns of decade–century-scale variability will determine climate-related risks. Underestimating low-frequency temperature and precipitation variability may significantly alter our understanding of the projections of these climate impacts.

National Science Foundation (NSF) RAPID, Program [AGS-1256970, AGS-1561121]; NOAA Climate Program Office; University of Arizona Department of Geosciences; Philanthropic Education Organization; National Science Foundation (NSF) P2C2, Program [AGS-1256970, AGS-1561121]; National Science Foundation (NSF) Geospace Sciences Paleoclimate Program [AGS-1256970, AGS-1561121]

The nature of multidecadal to centennial variability of the Asian monsoon is largely unknown, hindering our understanding of how the modern precipitation regime compares to preindustrial variability, as well as how the Asian monsoon may change in coming decades. Here we use the sediment record from a closed-basin lake in southern Tibet, Ngamring Tso, along with other published paleoclimatic records, to assess summer monsoon precipitation variability over the 20th century and during the late Holocene (4100 cal yr BP to present). The first principal component of the Ngamring Tso grain size record, which is highly correlated with median grain size, correlates significantly with observed summer (June–September) precipitation. From CE 1940 to 2007, grain size decreased with increasing summer precipitation and increased with decreasing summer precipitation. Satellite images of Ngamring Tso reveal larger lake area in the 1970s and 2000s and smaller lake area in the 1980s and 1990s, suggesting monsoon precipitation-induced changes in lake depth or area likely govern grain size variability. In the context of the last 4100 yr, prolonged periods of relatively weak summer monsoon precipitation occurred from 2800–2600 cal yr BP, 2500–2300 cal yr BP, and 1600–400 cal yr BP. A trend toward increased summer precipitation began around 1000 cal yr BP, with above-average summer precipitation from 400 cal yr BP to present, peaking between 200–100 cal yr BP (CE 1750–1850). Dry and wet periods are coincident with dry and wet periods in other south-central Tibetan lake sediment records that reflect precipitation or moisture balance, and with regional proxies of the ISM and EASM, indicating south-central Tibet is influenced by both monsoon subsystems. However, western Tibet lake sediment records do not covary with the Ngamring Tso record, suggesting the spatial variability in Tibet precipitation that occurs on interannual timescales today may also characterize precipitation on multidecadal and centennial timescales during the late Holocene. 20th century precipitation variability in southern Tibet falls within the range of natural variability in the last 4100 yr, and does not show a clear trend of increasing precipitation as projected by models. Instead, it appears that poorly understood multidecadal to centennial internal modes of monsoon variability remained influential throughout the last 4100 yr. Thus, substantial multidecadal to centennial-scale hydroclimatic variability will complicate our ability to project and prepare for anthropogenic changes in the region's monsoon precipitation.

Long paleoecological records are critical for understanding evolutionary responses to environmental forcing and unparalleled tools for elucidating the mechanisms that lead to the development of regions of high biodiversity. We use a 1.2-My record from Lake Malawi, a textbook example of biological diversification, to document how climate and tectonics have driven ecosystem and evolutionary dynamics. Before ∼800 ka, Lake Malawi was much shallower than today, with higher frequency but much lower amplitude water-level and oxygenation changes. Since ∼800 ka, the lake has experienced much larger environmental fluctuations, best explained by a punctuated, tectonically driven rise in its outlet location and level. Following the reorganization of the basin, a change in the pacing of hydroclimate variability associated with the Mid-Pleistocene Transition resulted in hydrologic change dominated by precession rather than the high-latitude teleconnections recorded elsewhere. During this time, extended, deep lake phases have abruptly alternated with times of extreme aridity and ecosystem variability. Repeated crossings of hydroclimatic thresholds within the lake system were critical for establishing the rhythm of diversification, hybridization, and extinction that dominate the modern system. The chronology of these changes closely matches both the timing and pattern of phylogenetic history inferred independently for the lake’s extraordinary array of cichlid fish species, suggesting a direct link between environmental and evolutionary dynamics.

The La Niña and El Niño phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have major impacts on regional rainfall patterns around the globe, with substantial environmental, societal and economic implications. Long-term perspectives on ENSO behaviour, under changing background conditions, are essential to anticipating how ENSO phases may respond under future climate scenarios. Here, we derive a 7700-year, quantitative precipitation record using carbon isotope ratios from a single species of leaf preserved in lake sediments from subtropical eastern Australia. We find a generally wet (more La Niña-like) mid-Holocene that shifted towards drier and more variable climates after 3200 cal. yr BP, primarily driven by increasing frequency and strength of the El Niño phase. Climate model simulations implicate a progressive orbitally-driven weakening of the Pacific Walker Circulation as contributing to this change. At centennial scales, high rainfall characterised the Little Ice Age (~1450–1850 CE) in subtropical eastern Australia, contrasting with oceanic proxies that suggest El Niño-like conditions prevail during this period. Our data provide a new western Pacific perspective on Holocene ENSO variability and highlight the need to address ENSO reconstruction with a geographically diverse network of sites to characterise how both ENSO, and its impacts, vary in a changing climate.

Decadal and longer-term variability in the tropical Pacific has the potential to impact climate worldwide, yet paleoclimate observations and climate model simulations disagree on the nature of this variability. In this study we investigate whether biases from paleoclimate reconstruction methodology and the currently available proxy network cause reconstructions of ENSO to overestimate the multidecadal-century scale variability of the Pacific. We build new reconstructions using a variety of commonly employed methods and test the effects of four types of bias on analogous pseudoproxy reconstructions. These biases include (1) the number of records used in the reconstruction, (2) chronological uncertainty, (3) noise in individual proxy records, and (4) the geographical distribution of the proxy network. We find that each of these biases cause ENSO reconstructions to overestimate the importance of low-frequency variability. These biases may partially explain why multiproxy reconstructions of Pacific variability have stronger low-frequency variability than predicted by historical observations or climate models, and why these reconstructions do not have coherent signals over the multidecadal-century scale.

Marine ecologists have a wide array of tools with which to study complex and dynamic systems, but there are cases where neither simple, highly controlled experiments nor largely uncontrolled, more complex field observations provide adequate inferential power. In such cases, mesocosm studies in marine systems may help bridge the gap. Mesocosm studies can facilitate research ranging from basic biology to multifactorial ecosystem studies that involve observation, perturbation, validation, calibration, long-term studies, and testing of new technologies. Although scale, closed boundaries, biodiversity levels, and replication can impose challenges on mesocosm research, these parameters can also help to define research opportunities that are uniquely suited to such controlled environments. Finally, we provide examples of successful marine mesocosm research and discuss opportunities for future work.

Strategic University Research Partnership Program of the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory [1492484/NNN12AA01C]

Coral populations and structural coral reefs have undergone severe reductions and losses respectively over large parts of the Galapagos Islands during and following the 1982-83 El Nino event. Coral tissue loss amounted to 95% across the Archipelago. Also at that time, all coral reefs in the central and southern islands disappeared following severe degradation and eventual collapse due primarily to intense bioerosion and low recruitment. Six sites in the southern islands have demonstrated low to moderate coral community (scattered colonies, but no carbonate framework) recovery. The iconic pocilloporid reef at Devil's Crown (Floreana Island) experienced recovery to 2007, then severe mortality during a La Nina cooling event, and is again (as of 2017) undergoing rapid recovery. Notable recovery has occurred at the central (Marchena) and northern islands (Darwin and Wolf). Of the 17 structural reefs first observed in the mid-1970s, the single surviving reef (Wellington Reef) at Darwin Island remains in a positive growth mode. The remainder either degraded to a coral community or was lost. Retrospective analyses of the age structure of corals killed in 1983, and isotopic signatures of the skeletal growth record of massive corals suggest the occurrence of robust coral populations during at least a 500-year period before 1983. The greatest potential threats to the recovery and persistence of coral reefs include: ocean warming and acidification, bioerosion, coral diseases, human population growth (increasing numbers of residents and tourists), overfishing, invasive species, pollution, and habitat destruction. Such a diverse spectrum of disturbances, acting alone or in combination, are expected to continue to cause local and archipelago-wide mortality and degradation of the coral reef ecosystem.

Seabirds play an important role in coastal environments, serving as key indicators of marine ecosystem variability as well as biovectors that influence terrestrial productivity and carbon storage. Long-term estimates of seabird populations remain rare, but lakes that support large seabird populations in their watersheds can archive a history of seabird activity in their sediment records. Here we present a seabird guano-influenced sediment record from Genovesa Crater Lake, Galapagos Islands, home to the world's largest reported colony of red-footed boobies (Sula sula) and smaller populations of other species. Influx of seabird guano into Genovesa Crater Lake produces high sedimentary δ15N values, and temporal variability in sediment δ15N primarily reflects changes in guano influx through time. Two abrupt increases in sedimentary δ15N occurred at 1835 AD and 1965 AD, and variance increased following the 1965 AD shift. The largest of these abrupt shifts at 1835 AD coincided, within age model error, with an abrupt increase in marine productivity indicators in sediment records off the coast of Peru and Chile. In the latter part of the twentieth century, δ15N values increased during periods of higher landings of Peruvian anchoveta and sardines. We hypothesise that seabird presence and activity on Genovesa increased during periods of higher regional marine productivity. Enhanced variance in Genovesa δ15N following the 1965 AD shift may reflect a modern population more susceptible to climate and environmental variability than at any other time in the last 400 years.

Global temperatures rose quickly between 1910 and 1940. A reconstruction based on corals suggests that the Pacific trade winds were weak during this period of rapid warming, but strengthened as warming slowed in the following decades.

Projected changes in global rainfall patterns will likely alter water supplies and ecosystems in semiarid regions during the coming century. Instrumental and paleoclimate data indicate that natural hydroclimate fluctuations tend to be more energetic at low (multidecadal to multicentury) than at high (interannual) frequencies. State-of-the-art global climate models do not capture this characteristic of hydroclimate variability, suggesting that the models underestimate the risk of future persistent droughts. Methods are developed here for assessing the risk of such events in the coming century using climate model projections as well as observational (paleoclimate) information. Where instrumental and paleoclimate data are reliable, these methods may provide a more complete view of prolonged drought risk. In the U.S. Southwest, for instance, state-of-the-art climate model projections suggest the risk of a decade-scale megadrought in the coming century is less than 50%; the analysis herein suggests that the risk is at least 80%, and may be higher than 90% in certain areas. The likelihood of longer-lived events (>35 yr) is between 20% and 50%, and the risk of an unprecedented 50-yr megadrought is nonnegligible under the most severe warming scenario (5%–10%). These findings are important to consider as adaptation and mitigation strategies are developed to cope with regional impacts of climate change, where population growth is high and multidecadal megadrought—worse than anything seen during the last 2000 years—would pose unprecedented challenges to water resources in the region.

Genovesa Crater Lake is a remote, hypersaline lake in the northern Galapagos archipelago that contains a finely laminated sediment record. This sediment record has the potential to provide a high-resolution history of past climate variability in the eastern tropical Pacific. Here we present modern climate, lake, and sediment observations from 2009 to 2012 to explore how local climate variability influences Genovesa Crater Lake and its sediments. Surface lake temperature is strongly linked to air temperature and is highly seasonal. Temperature stratification is strongest during the warm season, whereas temperature becomes more uniform through the water column in the cool season. Deeper and earlier mixing occurred during the 2010 La Nina, which subsequently delayed 2011 cool season mixing and maximum warm season surface temperatures in 2011 and 2012. Lake salinity changes are influenced by precipitation, evaporation and persistent seawater influx. The largest declines in subsurface salinity follow months after the rainy season, when temperatures cool and fresher surface water from the previous warm/wet season mixes into the subsurface. Between 2009 and 2012, more calcium carbonate precipitated during a period of higher salinity. The period of highest calcium carbonate abundance measured in sediment records that span the late nineteenth to twentieth century coincides with the failure of two consecutive rainy seasons in 1988 and 1989 as well as the coldest monthly sea surface temperature measured at Puerto Ayora in 1989. More calcium carbonate-rich laminae from AD 1550 ± 70 to 1675 ± 90 may indicate a greater frequency of prolonged droughts or cooler temperatures, although enhanced productivity may also modulate carbonate precipitation. More Ca-rich laminae in Genovesa coincide with dry conditions inferred from other Galapagos sediment proxies, as well as prolonged dry and cool conditions inferred from reconstructions of the Southern Oscillation Index and NINO3 sea surface temperatures.

The distribution of climatic variance across the frequency spectrum has substantial importance for anticipating how climate will evolve in the future. Here power spectra and power laws (β) are estimated from instrumental, proxy, and climate model data to characterize the hydroclimate continuum in western North America (WNA). The significance of the estimates of spectral densities and β are tested against the null hypothesis that they reflect solely the effects of local (nonclimate) sources of autocorrelation at the monthly time scale. Although tree-ring-based hydroclimate reconstructions are generally consistent with this null hypothesis, values of β calculated from long moisture-sensitive chronologies (as opposed to reconstructions) and other types of hydroclimate proxies exceed null expectations. Therefore it may be argued that there is more low-frequency variability in hydroclimate than monthly autocorrelation alone can generate. Coupled model results archived as part of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are consistent with the null hypothesis and appear unable to generate variance in hydroclimate commensurate with paleoclimate records. Consequently, at decadal-to-multidecadal time scales there is more variability in instrumental and proxy data than in the models, suggesting that the risk of prolonged droughts under climate change may be underestimated by CMIP5 simulations of the future.

Dust over the Himalayas and southern Tibetan Plateau may influence high-elevation temperature and hydrology across Asia, but little is known about long-term dust variability and its relationship with regional climate over the last millennium. Here we have reconstructed a proxy record of past dust and temperature impacts on glacial streamflow and sediment deposition in Kiang Co, a small lake on the southwestern Tibetan Plateau. Terrigenous elemental variability in the Kiang Co sediment record, a proxy for glaciofluvial sediment deposition in the lake, covaries with the Dasuopu ice core dust record from the central Himalayas on centennial timescales. The relationship between the Kiang Co sediment record and Dasuopu indicates coherent dust forcing across the central Himalayas over much of the last millennium, and suggests that regional dustiness influences glacial streamflow and sediment transport on centennial timescales. In addition, the Kiang Co terrigenous elemental abundance record is positively correlated with May–September temperatures from the Tibetan Plateau to central India from 1870 to 2007 AD, highlighting the important influence of temperature on melting and streamflow in this region, as well as a relationship between dust and temperature on centennial timescales. These findings strengthen the likelihood of future dustiness with continued warming, along with further increases in melting and high-elevation streamflow in coming decades.

In the eastern tropical Pacific, large spatial gradients in climate conditions are associated with oceanic upwelling and the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Dramatic shifts in these systems occur during extremes of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which also reverberate throughout the global climate system. Motivated by the need to understand ENSO history, and underpinned by ecological research, many of the earliest coral paleoclimate studies originated from the eastern Pacific. Early work in Galapagos, Costa Rica, and Panama highlighted the usefulness of a diverse array of tracers that record past environmental change. Longer records of coral δ18O have delineated the range of natural variability in ENSO and identified a rich spectrum of tropical Pacific variance that extends into multidecadal and century time scales. Coral-based reconstructions of ocean temperatures generally show strong warming trends, except in Galapagos, where existing records do not span the full 20th century and where strong interannual variability impedes detection of smaller trends. Coral records complement sediment-based and terrestrial records in terms of their length, resolution, and sensitivity. A more complete understanding of variability in the eastern tropical Pacific should emerge from ongoing and future work that integrates reef-based paleorecords with other paleoclimate reconstructions and model simulations. In addition, analysis of additional proxies—e.g. of circulation, pH, and salinity—is recommended to complement temperature reconstructions and provide useful reconstructions of changes in climate, oceanography, and reef stress.

International audience; We present uranium–thorium chronology for a 102 m core through a Pleistocene reef at Tahiti (French Polynesia) sampled during IODP Expedition 310 “Tahiti Sea Level”. We employ total and partial dissolution procedures on the older coral samples to investigate the diagenetic overprint of the uranium–thorium system. Although alteration of the U–Th system cannot be robustly corrected, diagenetic trends in the U–Th data, combined with sea level and subsidence constraints for the growth of the corals enables the age of critical samples to be constrained to marine isotope stage 9. We use the ages of the corals, together with δ18O based sea-level histories, to provide maximum constraints on possible paleo water-depths. These depth constraints are then compared to independent depth estimates based on algal and foraminiferal assemblages, microbioerosion patterns, and sedimentary facies, confirming the accuracy of these paleo water-depth estimates. We also use the fact that corals could not have grown above sea level to place a maximum constraint on the subsidence rate of Tahiti to be 0.39 m ka−1, with the most likely rate being close to the existing minimum estimate of 0.25 m ka−1.

Many regions of the world experienced abrupt climate variability during the last glacial period (75-15 thousand years ago1,2). These changes probably arose from interactions between Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean, but the rapid and widespread propagation of these changes requires a large-scale atmospheric response whose details remain unclear4-7. Here we use an oxygen isotope record from a speleothem collected from the Cave of the Bells, Arizona, USA, to reconstruct aridity in the southwestern United States during the last glacial period and deglaciation. We find that, during this period, aridity in the southwestern United States and climate in the North Atlantic region show similar patterns of variability. Periods of warmth in the North Atlantic Ocean3, such as interstadials and the Bølling-Allerød warming, correspond to drier conditions in the southwestern United States. Conversely, cooler temperatures in the high latitudes are associated with increased regional moisture. We propose that interstadial warming of the North Atlantic Ocean diverted the westerly storm track northward, perhaps through weakening of the Aleutian Low, and thereby reduced moisture delivery to southwestern North America. A similar response to future warming would exacerbate aridity in this already very dry region. © 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Interdecadal modes of tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere circulation have a strong influence on global temperature, yet the extent to which these phenomena influence global climate on multicentury timescales is still poorly known. Here we present a 2,000-year, multiproxy reconstruction of western Pacific hydroclimate from two speleothem records for southeastern Indonesia. The composite record shows pronounced shifts in monsoon rainfall that are antiphased with precipitation records for East Asia and the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. These meridional and zonal patterns are best explained by a poleward expansion of the Australasian Intertropical Convergence Zone and weakening of the Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) between ∼1000 and 1500 CE Conversely, an equatorward contraction of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and strengthened PWC occurred between ∼1500 and 1900 CE. Our findings, together with climate model simulations, highlight the likelihood that century-scale variations in tropical Pacific climate modes can significantly modulate radiatively forced shifts in global temperature., Interdecadal modes of tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere circulation have a strong influence on global temperature. Here, the authors present a 2000-year hydroclimate record from the Indo-Pacific, which suggests that century-scale variations in these modes are also linked with global temperature variability.

Radiocarbon measurements of hermatypic corals from 4 sites in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and Caribbean Sea were made to estimate the marine 14C reservoir age (R) and the marine regional correction (ΔR) for this region. Coral skeletal material from the Flower Garden Banks (northern GOM continental shelf), Veracruz, Mexico, and 2 reefs from the Cariaco Basin, Venezuela, were analyzed. Annual and subannual samples from 1945–1955 were milled and 14C composition was determined. In the Gulf of Mexico, average coral Δ14C is −52.6 ± 0.7‰ and average Δ14C for the Cariaco Basin corals is −53.4 ± 0.8‰. Average values for the marine reservoir age and ΔR are computed with this data and compared with results derived from previous measurements made in the same regions. These values are important in calibrating the 14C ages of carbonate samples from the area.

Climate variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean influences climate across much of the planet. A diatom-based record of sea surface temperatures from El Junco lake, Galapagos, reveals that the most recent half-century is the warmest 50-year period in the past 1,200 years. Through its intimate connection with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation system, climate variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean influences climate across much of the planet. But the history of temperature change in the tropical Pacific Ocean during recent millennia is poorly known: the available annually resolved records1,2 are discontinuous and rarely span more than a few centuries. Longer records at coarser temporal resolution suggest that significant oceanographic changes, observed at multi-year to multi-century resolution, have had important effects on global climate3,4,5. Here we use a diatom record from El Junco Lake, Galapagos, to produce a calibrated, continuous record of sea surface temperature in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean at subdecadal resolution, spanning the past 1,200 years. Our reconstruction reveals that the most recent 50 years are the warmest 50-year period within the record. Because our diatom-based sea surface temperature index resembles Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstructions, we suggest that with continued anthropogenic warming, the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean may continue to warm.

Coral records from a range of sites extend the index of the Indian Ocean Dipole back to 1846. Indian Ocean Dipole events increased in strength and frequency in the twentieth century, coincident with the development of direct feedbacks with the Asian Monsoon. The interplay of the El Nino Southern Oscillation, Asian monsoon and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)1,2,3 drives climatic extremes in and around the Indian Ocean. Historical4,5 and proxy6,7,8,9 records reveal changes in the behaviour of the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the Asian monsoon over recent decades10,11,12. However, reliable instrumental records of the IOD cover only the past 50 years1,3, and there is no consensus on long-term variability of the IOD or its possible response to greenhouse gas forcing13. Here we use a suite of coral oxygen-isotope records to reconstruct a basin-wide index of IOD behaviour since AD 1846. Our record reveals an increase in the frequency and strength of IOD events during the twentieth century, which is associated with enhanced seasonal upwelling in the eastern Indian Ocean. Although the El Nino Southern Oscillation has historically influenced the variability of both the IOD and the Asian monsoon3,8,10, we find that the recent intensification of the IOD coincides with the development of direct, positive IOD–monsoon feedbacks. We suggest that projected greenhouse warming may lead to a redistribution of rainfall across the Indian Ocean and a growing interdependence between the IOD and Asian monsoon precipitation variability.

Paleoclimate records from the tropical Pacific suggest the early to mid-Holocene was a period of reduced El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, with a transition to modern, increased ENSO frequency occurring some time in the last few thousand years. However, the nature and timing of this shift remains uncertain due to the discontinuous nature and/or coarse resolution of many ENSO proxies, as well as a lack of agreement between previously published records. A new, continuous, climate record from El Junco Crater Lake in the Galapagos Islands reveals several abrupt changes in lake level and precipitation through the Holocene. Hydroclimatic model simulations suggest that El Junco lake level responds sensitively to increases in precipitation associated with El Nino events, rising during wet El Nino events and falling during the intervening dry periods. Grain size data from El Junco sediment cores indicate past lake level variability, likely associated with changing seasonal precipitation and ENSO frequency. The grain size data suggest increased precipitation intensity prior to 9000±120 cal years BP, and after 4200±130 cal years BP, as well as a two-step increase in precipitation at 3200±160 and 2000±100 cal years BP. Maximum Holocene precipitation and inferred ENSO variability occurred between 2000±100 and 1500±70 cal years BP, during the same period that six other independent proxy records suggest higher ENSO frequency and longer, stronger El Nino events. Decreasing sediment carbon/nitrogen (C/N) ratios in El Junco sediments indicate rising lake levels from the early Holocene to present, corroborating the grain size data. The inferred increase in precipitation at 4200±130 cal years BP and at 2000±100 cal years BP coincides with decreasing Southwest Asian and East Asian Monsoon intensity, suggesting tropical Pacific climate and the Asian monsoon were interconnected systems at centennial to millennial timescales during the Holocene. A weakening trend in the Asian monsoon and the trend toward wetter conditions at El Junco also coincide with a trend toward cooler and drier conditions inferred from Cariaco Basin sediment proxies from the mid-Holocene to present, suggesting the migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) likely influenced hydrological changes in both the eastern tropical Pacific and the Asian Monsoon region during the Holocene.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring mode of tropical Pacific variability, with global impacts on society and natural ecosystems. While it has long been known that El Niño events display a diverse range of amplitudes, triggers, spatial patterns, and life cycles, the realization that ENSO’s impacts can be highly sensitive to this event-to-event diversity is driving a renewed interest in the subject. This paper surveys our current state of knowledge of ENSO diversity, identifies key gaps in understanding, and outlines some promising future research directions.

▪ Abstract Many aspects of Earth's climate system have changed abruptly in the past and are likely to change abruptly in the future. Although abrupt shifts in temperature are most dramatic in glacial climates, abrupt changes, resulting in an altered probability of drought, large floods, tropical storm landfall, and monsoon rainfall, are all important concerns even in the absence of significant anthropogenic climate forcing. Continued climate change will likely increase the probability of these types of abrupt change and also make abrupt changes in ocean circulation and sea level more likely. Although global warming may have already triggered abrupt change, current understanding and modeling capability is not sufficient to specify details of future abrupt climate change. Improved adaptation strategies are warranted, as well as efforts to avoid crossing climate change thresholds beyond which large abrupt changes in sea level, ocean circulation, and methane-clathrate release could greatly amplify the impacts of climate change.

We present a record of monsoon variations for the early and middle Holocene that is inferred from the geochemistry of sediment cores from Ahung Co, a lake in central Tibet. The resolution of this record is better than 50 yr and the age model is derived from radiocarbon ages of terrestrial charcoal, which eliminates errors associated with the lake hard-water effect. We made down-core geochemical measurements of % carbonate, % organic carbon, C/N and δ13C of bulk organic matter, δ13C and δ18O of carbonate, and % dolomite. Proxy calibration and modern water-balance reconstruction show that these are proxies for lake depth and the amount of monsoon precipitation. We find that lake level and monsoon precipitation have been decreasing at Ahung Co since the early Holocene (∼7500 cal yr B.P.). Superimposed on this trend are rapid declines in monsoon rainfall at 7000–7500 and 4700 cal yr B.P. and seven century-scale wet–dry oscillations. The cores do not contain sediment from the last ∼4000 yr. Surface sediments from the lake accumulated during the 20th century, however. From this, we argue that lake levels have risen again recently following a late Holocene dry period.

The {Delta}{sup 14}C content of surface waters in and around the Cariaco Basin were reconstructed from {sup 14}C measurements on sub-annually sampled coral skeletal material. During the late 1930s - early 1940s surface waters within and outside of the Cariaco Basin are similar. Within the Cariaco Basin at Islas Tortugas coral {Delta}{sup 14}C averages -51.9 {+-}3.3 {per_thousand}. Corals collected outside of the basin at Boca de Medio and Los Testigos have {Delta}{sup 14}C values of -53.4 {+-} 3.3 {per_thousand} and -54.3 {+-} 2.6 respectively. Additional {sup 14}C analyses on the Isla Tortugas coral document an {approx} 11 {per_thousand} decrease between {approx}1905 (-40.9 {+-}4.5 {per_thousand}) and {approx}1940. The implied Suess Effect trend (-3 {per_thousand}/decade) is nearly as large as that observed in the atmosphere over the same time period. If we assume that there is little to no fossil fuel {sup 14}CO{sub 2} signature in Cariaco surface waters in {approx}1905, the waters have an equivalent reservoir age of {approx}312 years.

We have compiled 36 previously published palaeoclimate records to determine the timing and spatial pattern of century-scale abrupt changes in Asian monsoon precipitation since the last deglaciation. We identify abrupt events from (1) the interpretations of the authors of these records and (2) the more objective moving t-test calculation. Our results indicate that abrupt climatic changes occurred at ~11.5 cal. ka, 4.5–5.0 cal. ka and ad 1300. At the start of the Holocene (~11.5 cal. ka), Asian monsoon precipitation increased dramatically. This climatic change is synchronous with an abrupt warming in the North Atlantic. During the middle Holocene, there was a time of preferred and widespread weakening in monsoon strength (~4.5–5.0 cal. ka). This result contradicts previous notions of either a gradual trend towards drier conditions or a series of abrupt events that occurred in an unorganized fashion across space and time. The middle-Holocene abrupt event could have been synchronous with an abrupt cooling event in the North Atlantic, as well as a warming and intensification of internannual variability in the tropical Pacific. In contrast to previous periods, precipitation changes at ad 1300 have a heterogeneous spatial pattern. We find no conclusive evidence for a change in the Asian monsoon at ~8.2 cal. ka, as suggested by several previous studies. More high-resolution data may be needed to observe this short-lived event. Overall, our results attest to the potential for rapid and major shifts in Asian monsoon precipitation that may be triggered by variations in other components of the climatic system.

The Cariaco Basin is an important archive of past climate variability given its response to inter- and extratropical climate forcing and the accumulation of annually laminated sediments within an anoxic water column. This study presents high-resolution surface coral trace element records (Montastrea annularis and Siderastrea siderea) from Isla Tortuga, Venezuela, located within the upwelling center of this region. A two-fold reduction in Cd/Ca ratios (3.5–1.7 nmol/mol) is observed from 1946 to 1952 with no concurrent shift in Ba/Ca ratios. This reduction agrees with the hydrographic distribution of dissolved cadmium and barium and their expected response to upwelling. Significant anthropogenic variability is also observed from Pb/Ca analysis, observing three lead maxima since 1920. Kinetic control of trace element ratios is inferred from an interspecies comparison of Cd/Ca and Ba/Ca ratios (consistent with the Sr/Ca kinetic artifact), but these artifacts are smaller than the environmental signal and do not explain the Cd/Ca transition. The trace element records agree with historical climate data and differ from sedimentary faunal abundance records, suggesting a linear response to North Atlantic extratropical forcing cannot account for the observed historical variability in this region.

The variance of the rainfall during the October–November–December (OND) “short rain” season along the coast in Kenya and Tanzania correlates strongly with sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indian Ocean between 1950 and 1999. A zonal pattern of positive correlation in the Arabian Sea and negative correlation southwest of Sumatra forms in the summer preceding the rainy season. The positive correlation strengthens in the western Indian Ocean and the negative correlation in the eastern Indian Ocean weakens in the subsequent fall concurrent with the short rain. Reduced OND East African rainfall is associated with the reversed SST pattern. The OND rainfall also correlates strongly with ENSO. The SST–rain correlation pattern breaks down between the years 1983 and 1993, as does the correlation with ENSO. However, between 1994 and 1999 the OND rainfall, ENSO, and the SST zonal mode again return to strong correlation, as in the years preceding 1983.

Today, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system is the primary driver of interannual variability in global climate, but its long-term behaviour is poorly understood. Instrumental observations reveal a shift in 1976 towards warmer and wetter conditions in the tropical Pacific, with widespread climatic and ecological consequences. This shift, unique over the past century, has prompted debate over the influence of increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases on ENSO variability. Here we present a 155-year ENSO reconstruction from a central tropical Pacific coral that provides new evidence for long-term changes in the regional mean climate and its variability. A gradual transition in the early twentieth century and the abrupt change in 1976, both towards warmer and wetter conditions, co-occur with changes in variability. In the mid-late nineteenth century, cooler and drier background conditions coincided with prominent decadal variability; in the early twentieth century, shorter-period (approximately 2.9 years) variability intensified. After 1920, variability weakens and becomes focused at interannual timescales; with the shift in 1976, variability with a period of about 4 years becomes prominent. Our results suggest that variability in the tropical Pacific is linked to the region's mean climate, and that changes in both have occurred during periods of natural as well as anthropogenic climate forcing.

The authors examine relationships between Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) variability and the variability of the Indian monsoon, including analysis of potential long-lead predictions of Indian rainfall by regional SST and the influence of ENSO and decadal variability on the stability of the relationships. Using monthly gridded (4° × 4°) SST data from the Global Sea-Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (GISST) dataset that spans 1945–94, the correlation fields between the All-India Rainfall Index (AIRI) and SST fields over the tropical Indian Ocean are calculated. In the boreal fall and winter preceding the summer Indian monsoon, SST throughout the tropical Indian Ocean correlates positively with subsequent monsoon rainfall. Negative correlation occurs between SST and the AIRI in the subsequent autumn in the northern Indian Ocean only. A strong correlation (0.53) is found between the summer AIRI and the preceding December–February Arabian Sea SST. The correlation between the AIRI and the SST...

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system orchestrates a well-documented suite of climate anomalies worldwide. The details of ENSO's extratropical influence vary among events, but this variability has not been described or diagnosed beyond the past few decades, and previous descriptions have looked at inter-event differences rather than decadal patterns. We use a new tree-ring based drought reconstruction for the continental U.S. and instrumental ENSO indices to document systematic decadal changes in the U.S. drought-ENSO relationship since the late 19th century. Significant ENSO-drought correlation occurs consistently in the southwest U.S., but the strength of penetration of moisture anomalies into the continent varies substantially. The most striking change over the past 130 years is the initiation of a “bipolar” ENSO-drought signature around 1920, producing opposite-sign moisture anomalies in the southwest and mid-Atlantic states. Shifts in teleconnection patterns coincide with variations in the strength of ENSO and in a North Pacific mode.

[1] We assess the magnitude of decadal to multidecadal (D2M) variability in Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations that will be used to understand, and plan for, climate change as part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's 5th Assessment Report. Model performance on D2M timescales is evaluated using metrics designed to characterize the relative and absolute magnitude of variability at these frequencies. In observational data, we find that between 10% and 35% of the total variance occurs on D2M timescales. Regions characterized by the high end of this range include Africa, Australia, western North America, and the Amazon region of South America. In these areas D2M fluctuations are especially prominent and linked to prolonged drought. D2M fluctuations account for considerably less of the total variance (between 5% and 15%) in the CMIP5 archive of historical (1850–2005) simulations. The discrepancy between observation and model based estimates of D2M prominence reflects two features of the CMIP5 archive. First, interannual components of variability are generally too energetic. Second, decadal components are too weak in several key regions. Our findings imply that projections of the future lack sufficient decadal variability, presenting a limited view of prolonged drought and pluvial risk.