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Gross morphology and morphometry of the bowhead whale ovary, including ovulatory corpora, were investigated in 50 whales from the Chukchi and Beaufort seas off the coast of Alaska. Using the presence of ovarian corpora to define sexual maturity, 23 sexually immature whales (7.6-14.2 m total body length) and 27 sexually mature whales (14.2-17.7 m total body length) were identified. Ovary pair weights ranged from 0.38 to 2.45 kg and 2.92 to 12.02 kg for sexually immature and sexually mature whales, respectively. In sexually mature whales, corpora lutea (CLs) and/or large corpora albicantia (CAs) projected beyond ovary surfaces. CAs became increasingly less interruptive of the surface contour as they regressed, while remaining identifiable within transverse sections of the ovarian cortex. CLs formed large globular bodies, often with a central lumen, featuring golden parenchymas enfolded within radiating fibrous cords. CAs, sometimes vesicular, featured a dense fibrous core with outward fibrous projections through the former luteal tissue. CLs (never more than one per ovary pair) ranged from 6.7 to 15.0 cm in diameter in 13 whales. Fetuses were confirmed in nine of the 13 whales, with the associated CLs ranging from 8.3 to 15.0 cm in diameter. CLs from four whales where a fetus was not detected ranged from 6.7 to 10.6 cm in diameter. CA totals ranged from 0 to 22 for any single ovary, and from 1 to 41 for an ovary pair. CAs measured from 0.3 to 6.3 cm in diameter, and smaller corpora were more numerous, suggesting an accumulating record of ovulation. Neither the left nor the right ovary dominated in the production of corpora. Anat Rec, 299:769-797, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Fifty-two eyes were collected and analyzed to estimate ages of 42 bowhead whales using the aspartic acid racemization aging technique. Between-eye and within-eye variance components for the ratio of the D and L optical isomers (D/L ratio) were estimated via analysis of variance using multiple measurements from nine whales with both eyes sampled and analyzed. For whales with more than one (D/L)act value, an inverse variance weighted average of the values was used as (D/L)act for the whale. Racemization rate (kAsp) and D/L ratio at birth (D/L)0 were estimated using (D/L)act from 27 bowhead whales with age estimates based on baleen or ovarian corpora data and two term fetuses. The estimates were kAsp = 0.977 × 10−3/yr and (D/L)0 = 0.0250. The nonlinear least squares analysis that produced these estimates also estimated female age at sexual maturity as ASM = 25.86 yr. SE(age) was estimated via a bootstrap that took into account the SE of (D/L)act and the variances and covariance of kAsp and (D/L)0. One male exceeded 100 yr of age; the oldest female was 88. A strong linear relationship between kAsp and body temperature was estimated by combining bowhead data with independent data from studies of humans and fin whales. Using this relationship, we estimated kAsp and ASM for North Atlantic minke whales.

We used baleen lengths and age estimates from 175 whales and body lengths and age estimates from 205 whales to test which of several single- and multi-stage growth models best characterized age-specific baleen and body lengths for bowhead whales ( Balaena mysticetus L., 1758) with the goal of determining which would be best for predicting whale age based on baleen or body length. Previous age estimates were compiled from several techniques, each of which is valid over a relatively limited set of physical characteristics. The best fitting single-stage growth model was a variation of the von Bertalanffy growth model for both baleen and body length data. Based on Bayesian information criterion, the two- and three-stage versions of the von Bertalanffy model fit the data better than did the single-stage models for both baleen and body length. The best baleen length models can be used to estimate expected ages for bowhead whales with up to 300–325 cm baleen, depending on sex, which correspond to age estimates approaching 60 years. The best body length models can be used to estimate expected ages for male bowhead whales up to 14 m, and female bowheads up to 15.5 m or ages up to approximately 40 years.

We compiled age estimates and baleen plate δ13C data from 86 bowhead whales ( Balaena mysticetus L., 1758). We used previous whale age estimates based on aspartic acid racemization (AAR) and corpora counts to extend the use of δ13C data for age determination from cycle counting to a modified exponential model using annual baleen growth increments. Our approach used the growth increment data from individual whales in a nonlinear mixed effects model to assess both population-level and whale-specific growth parameters. Although age estimates from baleen-based models become less precise as the whales age, and baleen growth and length near steady state, the growth increment model shows promise in estimating ages of bowhead whales 10–13.5 m long with baleen lengths

The 2001 survey of western Arctic (Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas) bowhead whales was conducted from 5 April to 7 June near Barrow, Alaska. Visual observers recorded a total of 3,295 “new” (not seen before) and 532 “conditional” (possibly seen before) whales in 1,130 h of watch effort, including 121 new calves (3.7% of the new whales). Concurrent with the visual survey, passive acoustic surveillance was conducted almost continuously from 16 April to 31 May, resulting in 27,023 locations of vocalizing bowhead whales. The estimated number of whales within 4 km of the perch (N4) was 7,025 (SE = 1,068). The estimated proportion of the whales within 4 km of the perch (P4) was 0.862 (SE = 0.044, computed by a moving blocks bootstrap). Combining these, the abundance estimate (N4/P4) for 2001 is 10,470 (SE = 1, 351) with a 95% confidence interval of 8, 100–13, 500. The estimated annual rate of increase (ROI) of the population from 1978 to 2001 is 3.4% (95% CI 1.7%-5%). Reports from hunters and results of an aerial survey in June 2001 indicate whales continued to pass Barrow after the survey had ended. In 2001 51% (572 h) of the watch was scored as occurring during “fair-excellent” visibility conditions, somewhat lower than the average for all surveys since 1978. Sea ice in the leads and fog were the principle environmental factors affecting visibility for all years. The estimated rate of increase and the fact that the number of calves counted in 2001 is the highest ever recorded suggest a steady recovery of this population. Other populations of large balaenids, notably the North Atlantic right whale, have failed to recover despite 70 yr of protection. The recovery of the howhead whale is likely attributable to low anthropogenic mortality, a relatively pristine habitat, and a well-managed subsistence hunt. Nonetheless, offshore oil development, increasing shipping traffic, changes in the Bering Sea ecosystem, sea ice retreat, and possibly killer whale predation within its range could impact this bowhead population and should be carefully monitored.

Epidemiologic studies suggest that most sexual transmission of genital herpes occurs when persons shed virus but lack lesions. This study assessed 79 men (63 with a history of genital herpes simplex virus [HSV] type 2 infection, 5 with a history of genital HSV-1 infection, and 11 with HSV-2 antibodies but no history of genital herpes) and obtained daily swabs for viral culture. HSV was isolated at least once from 60 (81%) HSV-2-seropositive men. The total viral shedding rate in HSV-2-seropositive men was 5%; the subclinical shedding rate was 2.2%. Of 11 HSV-2-seropositive men without a genital herpes history, 7 recognized typical recurrences and HSV was detected in 10. The shedding rate among men with genital HSV-2 was significantly higher than among men with genital HSV-1 infection (odds ratio, 4.4; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-15.3). The frequency of viral shedding in men with genital herpes appears comparable with that in women.

A total of 48 eye globes were collected and analyzed to estimate ages of bowhead whales using the aspartic acid racemization technique. In this technique, age is estimated based on intrinsic changes in the D and L enantiomeric isomeric forms of aspartic acid in the eye lens nucleus. Age estimates were successful for 42 animals. Racemization rate (kAsp) for aspartic acid was based on data from earlier studies of humans and fin whales; the estimate used was 1.18 10-3/year. The D/L ratio at birth ((D/L)0) was estimated using animals less than or equal to 2 years of age (n = 8), since variability in the D/L measurements is large enough that differences among ages in this range are unmeasurable. The (D/L)0estimate was 0.0285. Variance of the age estimates was obtained using the delta method. Based on these data, growth appears faster for females than males, and age at sexual maturity (age at length 12-13 m for males and 13-13.5 m for females) occurs at around 25 years of age. Growth slows markedly for both sexes at roughly 40-50 years of age. Four individuals (all males) exceed 100 years of age. Standard error increased with estimated age, but the age estimates had lower coefficients of variation for older animals. Recoveries of traditional whale-hunting tools from five recently harvested whales also suggest life-spans in excess of 100 years of age in some cases.

Semen is the body fluid most commonly associated with sexual transmission of human immunodeficiency virus type-1 (HIV-1). Because the male genitourinary tract is distinct immunologically from blood, compartment-dependent factors may determine HIV-1 shedding in semen. To identify these factors, the authors obtained 411 semen and blood specimens from 149 men seen up to three times. Seminal plasma was assayed for HIV-1 RNA and semen was cocultured for HIV-1 and cytomegalovirus (CMV), which may up-regulate HIV-1 replication. The best multivariate model for predicting a positive semen HIV-1 coculture included two local urogenital factors, increased seminal polymorphonuclear cell count (odds ratio (OR) = 12.6 for each log10 increase/mL, 95% confidence interval (CI) 12.2, 134.5) and a positive CMV coculture (OR = 3.0, 95% CI 1.2, 7.7). The best multivariate model for predicting semen HIV-1 RNA included two systemic host factors, CD4+ cell counts

Herpes simplex virus (HSV) infection is common in persons coinfected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). In a prospective study, daily viral cultures of the mouth, genitals, and rectum were collected from 68 HIV-positive and 13 HIV-negative men who have sex with men. Subjects completed a median of 57 days of follow-up. Anogenital HSV-2 cultures were positive on 405 (9.7%) of 4167 days for HIV-positive men and on 24 (3.1%) of 766 days for HIV-negative men. Most reactivations were perirectal and subclinical. Risk factors for increased HSV-2 shedding among HIV-positive men were low CD4 cell count (odds ratio, 2.5; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-5.4) and antibodies to both HSV-1 and HSV-2 versus HSV-2 only (odds ratio, 1.9; 95% confidence interval, 1.0-3.7). Three isolates obtained from 3 separate subjects were resistant to acyclovir. Thus, subclinical HSV-2 reactivation is an important opportunistic infection in persons with HIV infection. Further studies are necessaryto determine the impact of subclinical HSV-2 reactivation on the natural history of HIV infection.

Estimating the population size and rate of increase of bowhead whales, Balaena mysticetus, is important because bowheads were the first species of great whale for which commerical whaling stopped and so their status indicates the recovery prospects of other great whales, and also because this information is used by the International Whaling Commission (IWC) to set the aboriginal subsistence whaling quota for Alaskan Eskimos. We describe the 1993 visual and acoustic census off Point Barrow, Alaska, which provides the best data available for estimating these quantities. We outline the definitive version of two statistical methods for estimating the population: the generalized removal method and the Bayes empirical Bayes method. The two methods give results that are close. The estimate of bowhead population size most recently accepted by the IWC Scientific Committee, 8,200 with 95% estimation interval from 7,200 to 9,400, is based on the Bayes empirical Bayes posterior distribution presented here. T...

The frequency, pattern, and anatomical sites of subclinical shedding of herpes simplex virus (HSV) in the genital tract, along with factors that predict such shedding, have not been well characterized.We studied prospectively the clinical and virologic course of genital herpes in 110 women. The women kept symptom diaries and provided daily samples from the vulva, cervix, and rectum for viral culture.During a median follow-up of 105 days, subclinical shedding of virus was identified in 36 of 65 women (55 percent) with HSV type 2 (HSV-2), in 16 of 31 women (52 percent) with HSV type 1 (HSV-1) and HSV-2, and in 4 of 14 women (29 percent) with only HSV-1. Among women with genital HSV-2 infection, subclinical shedding occurred on a mean of 2 percent of the days. The mean duration of viral shedding during subclinical episodes was 1.5 days, as compared with 1.8 days during symptomatic episodes. HSV was isolated from several sites in the genital tract and rectum in 17 percent of subclinical episodes and 22 percent of symptomatic episodes. Half the episodes of subclinical shedding of HSV occurred within seven days of a symptomatic recurrence. The risk of subclinical shedding increased with the frequency of symptomatic recurrences. Subclinical shedding was more frequent among women with more than 12 recurrences per year than among those with no symptomatic recurrences (odds ratio, 3.3; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.4 to 7.9); it was also more frequent among women who had recently acquired genital herpes (odds ratio for women with HSV acquired in the past year as compared with those who had had the infection for a year or more, 1.85; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.1 to 3.1).Among women with a history of genital herpes infection, subclinical shedding of HSV is common and accounts for nearly one third of the total days of reactivation of HSV infection in the genital tract. Women with frequent symptomatic recurrences also have frequent subclinical shedding and may be at high risk for transmitting HSV.

We consider the problem of inference about a quantity of interest given different sources of information linked by a deterministic population dynamics model. Our approach consists of translating all the available information into a joint premodel distribution on all the model inputs and outputs and then restricting this to the submanifold defined by the model to obtain the joint postmodel distribution. Marginalizing this yields inference, conditional on the model, about quantities of interest, which can be functions of model inputs, model outputs, or both. Samples from the postmodel distribution are obtained by importance sampling and Rubin's SIR algorithm. The framework includes as a special case the situation where the pre-model information about the outputs consists of measurements with error; this reduces to standard Bayesian inference. The results are in the form of a sample from the postmodel distribution and so can be examined using the full range of exploratory data analysis techniques. M...

OBJECTIVES: To determine the prevalence of herpes simplex virus (HSV) antibody in a general medical practice setting and to assess the frequency of subclinical infection. DESIGN: Prevalence study. SETTING: A family practice clinic at the University of Washington Medical Center, Seattle. PARTICIPANTS: Five hundred randomly selected patients between the ages of 18 and 45 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Serum samples were tested by Western blot assay to detect the presence of antibody to HSV type 1 (HSV-1) and HSV-2. Demographic information and clinical history of oral and genital herpes were obtained. RESULTS: One hundred fourteen patients (23%) were seropositive for HSV-2 antibody, 277 patients (56%) were seropositive for HSV-1 antibody, 59 patients (12%) were seropositive for both HSV-2 and HSV-1 antibodies, and 163 patients (33%) were seronegative for both. Women were almost twice as likely as men to be seropositive for HSV-2 antibody (28% vs 15%, P < .001). Blacks had the highest rates of HSV-2 antibody seropositivity (60%) compared with whites (20%) and Asians (6%) (P < .001). Other demographic correlates of seropositivity included being older, having fewer years of education, and having public insurance. The specificity of a clinical history of genital herpes or sores for HSV-2 infection was high (99%), but the sensitivity was low (27%). CONCLUSIONS: Herpes simplex virus infection is common among patients seeking primary care. Women, blacks, and patients of lower socioeconomic status are most likely to be seropositive for HSV-2 antibody. The high frequency of unrecognized HSV infection has implications for primary care physicians in counseling patients regarding HSV infection and transmission.

Hypoxic pulmonary vasoconstriction (HPV) may be manifest in one of two ways: either an increase in the pulmonary artery pressure, or flow diversion away from the portion of the pulmonary bed with reduced conductance. We tested the hypothesis that the magnitude of the HPV response differs under conditions of constant flow perfusion, where pulmonary artery pressure (Ppa) rises during hypoxia, vs conditions of constant perfusion, where Ppa remains constant and flow (Q) is diverted away from the lungs during hypoxia. In isolated, perfused rabbit lungs, the HPV response to four levels of hypoxia (12, 6, 3 and 0% oxygen) was of greater magnitude and more sustained under conditions of constant pressure perfusion as compared to constant flow perfusion. The possible significance of these findings as they relate to interpretation of studies in both the perinatal and mature pulmonary circulation is discussed.

Background Human herpesvirus 6 (HHV-6) is a recently described herpesvirus that is epidemiologically and biologically similar to cytomegalovirus. It is the cause of exanthem subitum (roseola) in children. Methods To evaluate the possible role of HHV-6 infection in pneumonitis in immunocompromised patients, we used quantitative HHV-6 polymerase chain reactions to study lung-biopsy specimens from 15 patients with pneumonitis after bone marrow transplantation and lung tissue from 15 immunocompetent subjects without pneumonitis and 6 fetuses. Results HHV-6 DNA was detected in lung tissue from all 15 patients, from 14 seropositive control subjects, and from none of the 7 seronegative control subjects. Six patients had levels of HHV-6 DNA in lung tissue that were 10 to 500 times higher than those in any of the other patients or control subjects. Increased levels of HHV-6 DNA correlated with a decreased risk of death from pneumonitis (P = 0.015), an increased severity of graft-versus-host disease (P = 0.023), an...

Annual survival probability of bowhead whales, Balaena mysticetus, was estimated using both Bayesian and maximum likelihood implementations of Cormack and Jolly-Seber (JS) models for capture-recapture estimation in open populations and reduced-parameter generalizations of these models. Aerial photographs of naturally marked bowheads collected between 1981 and 1998 provided the data. The marked whales first photographed in a particular year provided the initial 'capture' and 'release' of those marked whales and photographs in subsequent years the 'recaptures'. The Cormack model, often called the Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model, and the program MARK were used to identify the model with a single survival and time-varying capture probabilities as the most appropriate for these data. When survival was constrained to be one or less, the maximum likelihood estimate computed by MARK was one, invalidating confidence interval computations based on the asymptotic standard error or profile likelihood. A Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) implementation of the model was used to produce a posterior distribution for annual survival. The corresponding reduced-parameter JS model was also fit via MCMC because it is the more appropriate of the two models for these photoidentification data. Because the CJS model ignores much of the information on capture probabilities provided by the data, its results are less precise and more sensitive to the prior distributions used than results from the JS model. With priors for annual survival and capture probabilities uniform from 0 to 1, the posterior mean for bowhead survival rate from the JS model is 0.984, and 95% of the posterior probability lies between 0.948 and 1. This high estimated survival rate is consistent with other bowhead life history data.

In early trials of antiretroviral therapy, acyclovir was associated with increased survival by an unknown mechanism. The hypothesis that subclinical herpes simplex virus (HSV) reactivation was associated, in vivo, with increased plasma human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) RNA and suppression with a reduced plasma HIV RNA load was investigated. HSV cultures were performed daily on HSV-2-positive/HIV-positive patients, and plasma HIV-1 RNA loads were measured at regular intervals. A subset of patients prior to, during, and after HSV suppression with high-dose acyclovir was measured to determine whether HSV suppression was associated with a decrease in HIV replication. Most (25/27 HSV-2-positive/HIV-positive persons) reactivated HSV. Total HSV shedding rate was strongly correlated with plasma HIV-1 RNA load (R=0.54; P=.004), and the plasma HIV-1 RNA level at a given CD4 cell count was 48% lower when treated with acyclovir. These data indicate that frequent mucosal HSV reactivation influences HIV replication in vivo and daily HSV suppression may be important in the management of HSV-positive/HIV-positive persons.

Most persons who have serologic evidence of infection with herpes simplex virus (HSV) type 2 (HSV-2) are asymptomatic. Historically, it has been assumed that these persons have less frequent viral reactivation than those with symptomatic infection.We conducted a prospective study to investigate genital shedding of HSV among 53 subjects who had antibodies to HSV-2 but who reported having no history of genital herpes, and we compared their patterns of viral shedding with those in a similar cohort of 90 subjects with symptomatic HSV-2 infection. Genital secretions of the subjects in both groups were sampled daily and cultured for HSV for a median of 94 days.HSV was isolated from the genital mucosa in 38 of the 53 HSV-2-seropositive subjects (72 percent) who reported no history of genital herpes, and HSV DNA was detected by the polymerase-chain-reaction assay in cultures prepared from genital mucosal swabs in 6 additional subjects. The rate of subclinical shedding of HSV in the subjects with no reported history of genital herpes was similar to that in the subjects with such a history (3.0 percent vs. 2.7 percent). Of the 53 subjects who had no reported history of genital herpes, 33 (62 percent) subsequently reported having typical herpetic lesions; the duration of their recurrences in these subjects was shorter (median, three days vs. five days; P0.001) and the frequency lower (median, 3.0 per year vs. 8.2 per year; P0.001) than in the 90 subjects with previously diagnosed symptomatic infection. Only 1 of these 53 subjects had no clinical or virologic evidence of HSV infection.Seropositivity for HSV-2 is associated with viral shedding in the genital tract, even in subjects with no reported history of genital herpes.

Visits to physicians for genital herpes simplex virus (HSV) infection continue to increase. Most patients with symptomatic infections have recurrences, but no studies of the long-term clinical course of genital herpes are available.To determine whether the frequency of HSV recurrences decreases over time.Observational cohort study.University-based research clinic.664 persons with genital herpes followed for at least 14 months.Patients were classified as having initial or recurrent HSV-1 or HSV-2 infection. Patient-reported recurrences and observed recurrences were recorded in a database; more than 12,000 recurrences were analyzed.Median recurrence rates in the first year of follow-up were one and five per year in patients with newly acquired HSV-1 and HSV-2 infection, respectively; second-year rates were significantly lower in both groups. Patients presenting with recurrent HSV-2 infection had higher rates of recurrence in the first and second years and no significant decrease; significant decreases were detected with longer follow-up. One third of all patients experienced a decrease of two or more recurrences per year between years 1 and 2. Patients infected with HSV-2 who were followed for more than 4 years had a median decrease of two recurrences between years 1 and 5. However, 25% of these patients had an increase of at least one recurrence in year 5, illustrating the variability among HSV-infected persons. Decreases over time among patients who never received suppressive therapy were similar to decreases during untreated periods in patients who received suppressive therapy.Herpes simplex virus type 2 infection continues to be a chronic remitting illness. Over time, however, clinically significant reductions occur in a majority of patients. Physicians may wish to periodically assess the need for continued treatment with daily suppressive antiviral chemotherapy.

Human herpesvirus 6 (HHV-6) DNA levels in peripheral blood mononuclear cells were prospectively evaluated in 20 cytomegalovirus-seronegative allogeneic marrow transplant patients and in 10 healthy control subjects. Blood and saliva specimens obtained weekly for 3 months after transplant were evaluated by quantitative HHV-6 polymerase chain reaction. One of 20 patients experienced primary HHV-6 infection after marrow transplant (seroconversion, HHV-6 viremia, skin rash); 18 of 20 had increased peripheral blood mononuclear cell HHV-6 DNA levels consistent with asymptomatic reactivations, and 1 patient experienced a reactivation-associated skin rash. Genotyping revealed HHV-6 variant B DNA in all cases. Therapy with acyclovir or intravenous immunoglobulin was not correlated with lower HHV-6 DNA levels. Thus, asymptomatic HHV-6 reactivations appear to be common following allogeneic marrow transplantation. Among HHV-6-seronegative and viral DNA-negative patients, primary HHV-6 infection can ensue in association with self-limited clinical symptoms, including diffuse maculopapular rash.

Objective To determine the frequency, recurrence patterns, and host factors associated with nongenital herpes simplex virus lesions. Patents and methods In this cohort study at a referral clinic, 457 patients with first episodes of genital herpes were prospectively observed to evaluate the anatomic sites of herpetic lesions at the first and subsequent visits. Of these patients, 73 had primary genital herpes simplex virus (HSV) type 1, 326 had primary first episode genital HSV-2, and 58 had HSV-1 infection prior to acquisition of genital HSV-2. The median follow-up was 63 weeks. Results Nongenital lesions at the time of acquisition of genital herpes were observed in 25%, 9%, and 2% of patients with primary HSV-1, primary HSV-2, and nonprimary HSV-2, respectively. Half of the patients with concurrent genital and non-genital lesions subsequently had recurrences at a nongenital site. Twenty patients (6.5%) whose primary genital HSV-2 infection involved only the genitalia subsequently developed nongenital recurrences, primarily on the buttocks (12) and legs (4). Nongenital recurrences, especially buttock recurrences, tended to be less frequent but of longer duration than genital recurrences. Conclusions Overall, 21% of patients with primary genital herpes will have or will subsequently develop a nongenital recurrence. Among patients with HSV-1, nongenital lesions tended to occur more often on the hand and face, whereas HSV-2 lesions appeared more often on the buttocks. Buttock lesions due to HSV recur less frequently but last longer than genital lesions.

The Bayes empirical Bayes method for estimating bowhead whale, Balaena mysticetus, population size is used to obtain estimates based on the 1988 combined visual and acoustic census off Point Barrow, Alaska. It is based on an explicit scientific model of the census process and of whale behavior, and yields a full posterior probability distribution of the number of whales given the data. It takes account of the imperfection of our scientific knowledge, of errors made by the tracking algorithm used, and of uncertainty about the control parameters for the tracking algorithm and about the parameters of the model.

ContextNeonatal herpes most commonly results from fetal exposure to infected maternal genital secretions at the time of delivery. The risk of transmission from mother to infant as it relates to maternal herpes simplex virus (HSV) serologic status and exposure to HSV in the maternal genital tract at the time of labor has not been quantified. Furthermore, no data exist on whether cesarean delivery, the standard of care for women with genital herpes lesions at the time of delivery, reduces HSV transmission.ObjectiveTo determine the effects of viral shedding, maternal HSV serologic status, and delivery route on the risk of transmission of HSV from mother to infant.DesignProspective cohort of pregnant women enrolled between January 1982 and December 1999.SettingsA university medical center, a US Army medical center, and 5 community hospitals in Washington State.PatientsA total of 58 362 pregnant women, of whom 40 023 had HSV cultures obtained from the cervix and external genitalia and 31 663 had serum samples tested for HSV.Main Outcome MeasureRates of neonatal HSV infection.ResultsAmong the 202 women from whom HSV was isolated at the time of labor, 10 (5%) had neonates with HSV infection (odds ratio [OR], 346; 95% confidence interval [CI], 125-956 for neonatal herpes when HSV was isolated vs not isolated). Cesarean delivery significantly reduced the HSV transmission rate among women from whom HSV was isolated (1 [1.2%] of 85 cesarean vs 9 [7.7%] of 117 vaginal; OR, 0.14; 95% CI, 0.02-1.08; P = .047). Other risk factors for neonatal HSV included first-episode infection (OR, 33.1; 95% CI, 6.5-168), HSV isolation from the cervix (OR, 32.6; 95% CI, 4.1-260), HSV-1 vs HSV-2 isolation at the time of labor (OR, 16.5; 95% CI, 4.1-65), invasive monitoring (OR, 6.8; 95% CI, 1.4-32), delivery before 38 weeks (OR, 4.4; 95% CI, 1.2-16), and maternal age less than 21 years (OR, 4.1; 95% CI, 1.1-15). Neonatal HSV infection rates per 100 000 live births were 54 (95% CI, 19.8-118) among HSV-seronegative women, 26 (95% CI, 9.3-56) among women who were HSV-1–seropositive only, and 22 (95% CI, 4.4-64) among all HSV-2–seropositive women.ConclusionNeonatal HSV infection rates can be reduced by preventing maternal acquisition of genital HSV-1 and HSV-2 infection near term. It can also be reduced by cesarean delivery and limiting the use of invasive monitors among women shedding HSV at the time of labor.

Herpes simplex virus (HSV) infection is one of the most common opportunistic infections in HIV-infected persons. However, most documentation of the effectiveness of antiviral therapy in reducing HSV reactivation is anecdotal.To evaluate the quantitative effect of antiviral therapy on the frequency of HSV reactivation in HIV-infected persons.Double-blind, placebo-controlled, crossover trial.Research clinic at a university hospital.48 persons (45 men and 3 women) who were HIV positive and HSV seropositive.Patients were randomly assigned to receive famciclovir, 500 mg orally twice daily, or placebo for 8 weeks. They then crossed over to receive the other regimen after a 1-week washout period.Patients obtained daily cultures of their perirectal, urethral, oral, and genital areas and kept dairy records of signs and symptoms of genital and oral-labial herpes.The median CD4 cell count at study entry was 384 cells/mm3. In the intention-to-treat analysis of the first study period, HSV was isolated on 122 of 1114 (11%) placebo days compared with 9 of 1071 (1%) famciclovir days (relative risk, 0.15; P0.001). For patients who completed the crossover, the median difference in days with symptoms between placebo and famciclovir was 13.8% of days and the median difference in days on which HSV was isolated was 5.4% of days (P0.001 for both). Percentage of days with HSV-2 shedding was reduced from 9.7% to 1.3%. Breakthrough reactivations that occurred while patients were receiving famciclovir were infrequent, short, and often asymptomatic, HSV-2 isolates from these reactivations were susceptible to penciclovir in vitro.Antiviral chemotherapy with famciclovir results in clinically and statistically significant reductions in the symptoms associated with HSV infection and the symptomatic and asymptomatic shedding of HSV among HIV-positive persons.

The non-Gaussian character of glint noise is demonstrated by exploratory data analysis. This non-Gaussian behavior is characterized by outliers in the form of glint spikes. Since glint noise is processed by an angle-tracking Kalman filter, and since the latter is quite nonrobust, strategies are proposed to minimize the effect of these glint spikes. One of the strategies, which involves robust preprocessing of the data, is pursued in detail. Finally, some results of a planar missile simulation are presented that clearly demonstrate the merits of the robust preprocessing strategy.

Bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus) census data obtained during the northward spring migration are summarized for 1978–1983. Population size estimates are derived from counts made by observers standing on the seaward edge of shorefast ice in the vicinity of Point Barrow, Alaska, from mid-April to early June. The research design utilized two counting stations: South Perch, the primary counting station, and North Perch, used to determine the number of whales missed by South Perch observers. The percentage missed is estimated for each visibility category and used here to correct the census counts. Each season's population estimate is calculated as the sum of the number of trials of several independent multinomial distributions representing different visibility conditions. Corrections are applied for unwatched hours and hours with inferior visibility. A mean estimate of the number of whales passing within view of the census station was computed as 3,674 ± 299. This estimate was based on data collected in 1978, 1981, 1982, and 1983, years with the least apparent biases. Aerial survey data provide estimates of the proportion of whales passing at various distances seaward of the census sites as follows: 0.58 from the ice edge to 2 km, 0.76 to 3 km, and 0.80 to 4 km. Correcting for whales too far offshore to be seen by the ice-based observers results in a population estimate of over 4,200 bowheads.

This paper discusses various spectral windows which can be used to estimate spectra and cross-spectra. Suggestions are offered which may be helpful in choosing a window for a particular application. The results of the prediction technique are compared with the results of standard regression analysis on several examples. Criteria are given for choosing between these two approaches to nonlinear prediction.

The classical linear prediction problem has received much attention both theoretically and empirically in the past few decades and a great deal is known about it (though there remain important open questions). See, e.g., discussions and lists of references in Parzen (1969) and Rozanov (1967). The nonlinear prediction problem is much more difficult and much less is known about it. See, e.g., Masani and Wiener (1959). We reduce a certain type of nonlinear prediction problem to the multiple linear prediction problem, see Wiener (1956) and Van Ness (1966). We can then take advantage of theoretical results and computational techniques which have been developed to solve the linear problem. The methods are applied to both real and generated data using an iterative method due to Parzen and fast Fourier transform techniques on a small computer (an IBM 1130).

This paper adapts the removal method of population size estimation to the problem of estimating the size of the western Arctic stock of bowhead whales. The whales are counted during their spring migration as they pass two census camps located near Point Barrow, Alaska. Whales seen at the first camp are "removed" from the population of concern to the second camp, where only whales missed by the first camp are counted. If both camps were in operation throughout the migration and if the probability of missing a whale were constant, the removal method would provide a population size estimate based on a trinomial model in which the size of the population would be the number of trials, whales counted by each camp would provide the observed cell totals, and whales missed by both camps would represent an unobserved cell total. Since the probability of missing a whale depends on visibility, we model the population size as the sum of the number of trials of several independent trinomial distributions, each of which represents a particular visibility condition occurring during the census. To account for the fact that watch cannot be maintained at both camps throughout the migration, we derive a confidence interval estimate of the number of trials under a more general model allowing for incomplete observation of totals within particular cells as well as for completely unobserved cells.

We propose a statistical test for detecting the migration of whales during the period when visual observations are not possible due to ice, fog, darkness, or other environmental factors. Sound locations are linked into "whale tracks" based on the swimming behavior of migrating whales and a permutation test is developed to detect a spatial-temporal pattern of loci of migrating whales including their swimming directions and speeds. Analysis of acoustic location data collected during the 1984 spring migration of bowhead whales past Point Barrow, Alaska, indicates that bowheads were migrating even when few were observed visually because of harsh environmental conditions such as fog or ice.