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Taking full advantage of fiscal and economic incentives has become a complex process for investors, who must find the right portfolio or capital structure to obtain viable and competitive generation projects. In this context, this paper proposes a methodology for the optimal structuring of investments in non-conventional energy sources (NCRES) considering fiscal and economic incentives. Three methods were evaluated: (1) levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) combined with three metaheuristic techniques; (2) discounted cash flow (DCF) with Monte Carlo simulation and value at risk (VaR); and (3) real options with Black and Scholes. The proposed approach presents as the main financial indicator the generation cost (GC), as well as three other financial indicators, namely: net present value (NPV), value at risk (VaR) and net present value for real options (NPVRO). The propose approach allows for defining different investment portfolios from where an investor can choose; each of which minimizes the GC. Furthermore, the methodology can be adapted to countries with different policies and fiscal incentives for the development of NCRES projects. The results show that for each metaheuristic, an optimal capital structure that minimizes GC is obtained; in this way, a GC of 0.032 (USD/kWh) is achieved for solar photovoltaic technology, with a reduction of 49.2%, when tax incentives are considered.

espanolEn este trabajo se analizan los efectos de los incentivos tributarios de la Ley 1715 de 2014 (Ley colombiana de energias renovables) en el costo nivelado de electricidad (CNE) de plantas de generacion de energia con biomasa forestal en el departamento de Antioquia. Con base en el potencial energetico de la biomasa se consideraron las tecnologias de gasificacion, combustion y ciclo organico Rankine (ORC). Se analizaron tres casos de estudio: 1) CNE sin incentivos, 2) CNE con incentivos y 3) CNE con incentivos, considerando una depreciacion de activos a 10 anos. Por otro lado, se realizo un analisis de sensibilidad para evaluar la variacion en el CNE por cambios en el costo de la biomasa forestal, el costo de la tecnologia de generacion, la tasa minima aceptable de rentabilidad y el periodo de gracia en los creditos para financiar las plantas. Finalmente, los resultados obtenidos muestran que el CNE del ORC (13,2 ¢U$/kWeh) es el que presenta mayor reduccion (11,2%), cuando se consideran los incentivos de la Ley 1715 de 2014 con depreciacion de activos a 10 anos, financiacion del 50% de la inversion inicial y periodo de gracia a 5 anos. EnglishIn this paper the effects of the tax incentives of the Law 1715 of 2014 (Colombian law of renewable energies) on the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of cogeneration plants using forest biomass in the Antioquia Department are analyzed. Generation technologies such as Gasification, Combustion and Rankine Organic Cycle (ORC) were considered based on the energy potential of the forest biomass crops. Three study cases were carried out: 1) LCOE without tax incentives, 2) LCOE with tax incentives, and 3) LCOE with tax incentives considering ten years for assets depreciation. On the other hand, a sensitivity analysis was carried out to evaluate how the LCOE is affected due to changes in the forest biomass cost, the technology cost, the minimum acceptable return rate and the grace period on credits to finance the cogeneration plants. Finally, the results show that the LCOE with the ORC (13,2 ¢U$/kWeh) is the case with the greatest reduction (11,2%), when the incentives of Law 1715 of 2014 with assets depreciation at 10 years, financing the 50% of the initial investment and grace period for 5 years are considered.

The updraft plasma gasification process of different municipal solid wastes (MSWs) to produce syngas as a substitute gaseous fuel was assessed from a techno-economic viewpoint. The plasma gasification process was modeled under a thermo-chemical approach using aspen plus. The model validation has been carried out with experimental data from the literature, reaching an average relative error of 6.23% for temperature, heating values, and fuel species concentration of the syngas. The plasma torch power consumption was one of the main process parameters that affects the energy and exergy efficiencies. In spite of increasing moisture content of MSW, from 26.61% to 57.9%, the energy and exergy efficiencies expanded by 1.5% and 5.4% on average, respectively, which ascribed to the reduction of torch power consumption; this behavior resulted as the torches thermally degraded a lower fraction of dry MSW. Whereas, if plasma temperature increased (2500 °C to 4000 °C), the gasification efficiencies diminished because of the torch power consumption boosted by 28.3%. Furthermore, the parameter combinations process (air flow and plasma temperature) was found to reach the highest process efficiency, the efficiency ranged from 79.22% to 83.46%, highlighting the plasma gasification flexibility. The levelized cost of syngas production varied from 15.83 to 26.21 ¢US$/kW h. Therefore, to make these projects feasible (waste to energy), a waste disposal charge ranging between 14.67 and 26.82 ¢US$/kW h was proposed.

Colombian municipal solid waste (MSW) production trends indicate that sanitary emergencies could occur in the largest cities of the country by 2030 because of the end of their landfills’ useful life. In this work, the energy recovery from different MSW through the updraft plasma gasification process to produce syngas as a substitute gaseous fuel was assessed from an economic viewpoint. The study was carried out using the results of an implemented model under a thermochemical approach using Aspen Plus. The economic assessment was conducted using the levelized cost of syngas production (LCOS), which was regarded as an economic indicator that considers tax incentives in the context of the Colombian renewable energy regulations (Law 715 of 2014). The combination between operational conditions (air flow and plasma temperature) allowed finding the maximum efficiency by means of a sensitivity analysis. The maximum efficiency ranged from 79,22 to 83,46%, highlighting the flexibility of the plasma gasification process to treat MSW. The lowest levelized syngas production cost reached with tax incentives varied from 13,19 to 22,95 ¢US$/kWh. Therefore, a waste disposal charge was proposed to make these projects feasible, which must range between 11,25 and 23,56 ¢US$/kWh (123-259 US$/t)

espanolEn este articulo se analiza la aplicacion de la tecnica de optimizacion de mapeo media-varianza en el problema de estimacion de los parametros del modelo de suelo de dos capas horizontales. El problema consiste en determinar los parametros del modelo del suelo a partir de las mediciones experimentales de resistividad aparente obtenidas con el metodo de Wenner, minimizando el error medio cuadratico entre valores de las curvas de resistividad experimental y teorica, calculadas con expresiones matematicas y parametros del suelo obtenidos por la tecnica de optimizacion de mapeo media-varianza. Se realizaron varias pruebas con medidas de resistividad que corresponden a diferentes tipos de suelos, comparando los resultados obtenidos con los reportados en la literatura tecnica. En conclusion, de acuerdo a los resultados, se encontro que el desempeno de la tecnica de optimizacion de mapeo media-varianza es superior a las otras tecnicas de optimizacion analizadas. EnglishThis paper presents an analysis of applying the optimization of mean-variance mapping technique in the problem of estimating the parameters of the soil model of two horizontal layers. This problem consists of determining the parameters of the soil model from experimental measurements of apparent resistivity obtained with Wenner method, minimizing the mean square error between values of the experimental and theoretical resistivity curves, which are calculated with mathematical expressions and soil parameters acquired through the optimization of mean-variance mapping technique. Several tests were carried out with resistivity measurements that correspond to different soil types, the results were contrasted with those reported in the technical literature and metaheuristics implemented. In conclusion, according to the results, the performance of the optimization of mean-variance mapping technique was found to be superior than other analyzed optimization techniques.