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Fed cattle profitability is determined by complicated dynamic processes of body growth, carcass development, and seasonal prices. A structural model is constructed to contend with all these dynamic processes to predict optimal market timing. Informed simulations are conducted and compared to those observed in the data, as well as to a previous model ignoring the evolution of carcass value. The results indicate that significant improvements to profitability are attainable with the new method. The results also indicate the opportunity cost of not accounting for carcass value, even with error, is more severe than when these dynamics are ignored.

A breeding female’s perceived value is a complicated process and depends on a combination of expected production costs, reproductive success, and calf values. A conceptual asset value model based on female characteristics as signals and net implicit marginal value expectations is developed. A hedonic model based on sequentially sold individuals at multiple Mississippi auction locations is estimated by panel regression. Among other findings, pregnant females are discounted in proportion to abortion risk, which decreases toward birth. A follow-up cost/benefit analysis indicates producers are better off from at home pregnancy checking and selling only nonpregnant females or cow/calf pairs.

The COVID-19 pandemic and the associated policy responses to it were highly disruptive of supply chains throughout the economy in 2020 – disruptive on an unprecedented scale. Massive shocks on both the demand and supply sides of the market presented particular challenges in agricultural product markets. These were arguably most pronounced in the protein sector. This paper will examine these protein sector supply chain shocks, exploring the nature and causes of the market disruptions during the height of the pandemic, evaluating the effects of these shocks from an economic perspective, and identifying potential market and policy responses that could mitigate the adverse effects of similar events in the future.

Agri-food supply chains in North America have become remarkably efficient, supplying an unprecedented variety of items at the lowest possible cost. However, the initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic and the near-total temporary loss of the foodservice distribution channel, exposed a vulnerability that many found surprising. Instead of continued shortages, however, the agri-food sector has since moved back to near normal conditions with prices and production levels similar to those typically observed in years prior to the pandemic. Ironically, the specialization in most food supply chains designed for “just-in-time” delivery to specific customers with no reserve capacity, which led to the initial disruptions, may have also been responsible for its rapid rebound. A common theme in assessing the impacts across the six commodities examined is the growing importance of understanding the whole supply chain. Over the longer term, a continuation of the pandemic could push the supply chain toward greater consolidation of firms and diversification of products given the increasing option value of maintaining flexibility. Other structural changes will be felt through input markets, most notably labour, as the trend toward greater automation will continue to accelerate as a response to meeting concerns about a consistent supply of healthy and productive workers. The economic fall out from the pandemic may lead to greater concentration in the sector as some firms are not able to survive the downturn and changes in consumer food buying behaviour, including movement toward online shopping and enhanced demand for attributes associated with resiliency, such as local. On the other hand, online shopping may provide opportunities for small producers and processors to shorten supply chains and reach customers directly. In the long term, COVID-19 impacts on global commerce and developing country production are more uncertain and could influence poverty reduction. While COVID-19's impacts on North American agriculture should have minimal effect on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) through food prices, the ongoing global trends in trade and agribusiness accelerated by the pandemic are relevant for achievement of the SDGs., Highlights • Initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic exposed a vulnerability in agri-food sector supply chains. • Most sectors have since moved back to near normal conditions. • Importance of understanding the whole supply chain is growing. • The trend toward greater automation will continue to accelerate.